We've following the Ukraine/Russia saga. In the meantime, China remains locked down during the time to prepare for spring planting:
The lockdown in China has already impacted their planting season. This will cut their harvest.

https://www.fr24news.com/a/2022/04/chin ... tages.html

According to official data, up to a third of farmers in the northeastern provinces of Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang do not have enough agricultural inputs after authorities sealed off villages to fight the pandemic. The three provinces account for more than 20% of China’s grain production.
...
A Beijing-based central government adviser on agricultural policies said China was at risk of “facing food shortages”.


https://www.voanews.com/amp/russia-s-in ... 16024.html

“The Food and Agricultural Organization estimates that as many as 13 million more people worldwide will be pushed into food insecurity as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The truth of the matter is Putin’s war forces us to take from the hungry to feed the starving. As long as Russia continues its brutal campaign, innocent people are going to pay the price,” she said.

This is scary as in 2019 Ukraine was the top exporter.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/07/ ... sia-a66250

49.7 million tons in 2019, and not really exporting this year. There are a lot of calories in a kg of wheat:
https://askinglot.com/how-many-calories ... g-of-grain


Russia is being interesting... Basically they will only export food to friendly countries:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/0 ... ries-only/

All over, fertilizer is expensive. We grow the calories we need by utilizing absolutely mind boggling amounts of fertilizer.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/l ... NewsSearch

US will plant 2.3 million more acres of wheat.
1.3 million fewer acres of corn (uses a lot of fertilizer)
and 0.3 million more acres of Soybeans (uses less fertilizer). From 227.2 million acres planted last year for those crops, adding 1.3 million acres is noise, in particular as corn is such a high calorie per acre crop.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-fa ... %20context

Link on calories per acre (corn is almost double wheat and Soybeans are far less).
https://www.waldeneffect.org/blog/Calor ... %20rows%20

So what I do not know is the shortage of food in relative terms. I know normally Ukraine is exporting grain right now and the countries expecting those deliveries are hard hit. What I do not know is the full impact of the shortage. How much is hype, how much cannot be readily replaced with say rice?

It just seems that a late Chinese planting is likely on top of the conflict induced shortages.

Lightsaber

It's not a good situation to be sure. Prices will go up for bread and other wheat-essentials in developed countries. Late this year into early 2023 will not be a good time to live in places where food supply is already sensitive, such as the Middle East, Africa, and the Indian subcontinent. It seems the conditions are ripe for further unrest to well up in those areas as supplies get tighter.

Have been saying this before omicron and before the war broke out. The question is just how worse will it be.

“High natural gas prices could lead to spike in food costs through fertilizer”

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insi ... gas-prices

Fossil fuels are necessary for food security, particularly of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable.

Aaron747 wrote:

It's not a good situation to be sure. Prices will go up for bread and other wheat-essentials in developed countries. Late this year into early 2023 will not be a good time to live in places where food supply is already sensitive, such as the Middle East, Africa, and the Indian subcontinent. It seems the conditions are ripe for further unrest to well up in those areas as supplies get tighter.

Wheat prices are down from the peak, but up 70% from before the conflict. The link also notes Somalia is in drought:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... ontext=amp

What most interests me is the trapped Ukrainian grain.
15 million tons sitting
Only able to export 1/2 million tons/month by rail to West.
Normally shipping up to 10X that amount, mostly via Russia gauge rail to blacksea ports.

https://gcaptain.com/global-grain-trade-redrawn/

One Kg of grain is roughly the calories for one person for a day. Failing to ship, by my math, over 25 million tons is 25 billion people days of calories.
Now, that should be about 1% of global calories. But then add in delayed Russian shipments, food oils...

And a pull down of stores over the last two years to support lockdowns... This could be interesting.

Ps, late edit. I agree the spike in fossil fuels will make the food pricing worse. I read about how we effectively eat fossil fuels between the need for fertilizer and transportation; Not to mention the fuel need to plant and harvest.

Interesting thread that puts a lot of this in perspective:

https://twitter.com/SarahTaber_bww/stat ... 44868?s=20

Maybe this is the moment we kick our ethanol insanity to the curb? JK that will never happen.

MaverickM11 wrote:

Interesting thread that puts a lot of this in perspective:

https://twitter.com/SarahTaber_bww/stat ... 44868?s=20

Maybe this is the moment we kick our ethanol insanity to the curb? JK that will never happen.

Just wondering though - she says 0.9% of wheat.
However, as Lightsaber says at the top, what if the war continues and most Ukranian wheat can't be planted for the next harvest.
If it's (say) 10% of global wheat and over the year they have a 50% drop (planting, harvest, export) then you'll be missing 5% of global wheat which is 5x the quantity you're missing now and have to compensate.

When you read all the information on the subject the first thing that leaps out to me is that we have overpopulated the planet. The victim of our own success in the food chain.

Much of this thread is about wheat but I wonder about other food sources? Peas have been used recently for "plant based" diets and scraps left over from corn and wheat production go into animal feed. I am guessing chicken and beef supplies will be down?

Not just foodstocks, but fertiliser is also getting very expensive so the crops/fields can't be fertilised properly either.

I'm not certain this is a sign of over-population. There are areas where crop production could increase, US fertilizer

ReverseFlow wrote:

Not just foodstocks, but fertiliser is also getting very expensive so the crops/fields can't be fertilised properly either.

My 2nd to last link noted a transition from corn to soybeans. That would be to avoid fertilizer costs.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-fa ... 21-11-05-0

The sharp reduction in calories per acre when that happens:
https://www.waldeneffect.org/blog/Calor ... %20rows%20

However, the overall trend, at least in the US, is managable:
https://www.farmprogress.com/fertilizer ... n-4-charts

As the article ends, all eyes will be on grain and fertilizer prices this year.

There is definitely a surge in global food prices that started due to the pandemic. The lack of reserves due to lockdowns/disruptions means that any additional crisis is magnified.
https://www.statista.com/chart/20165/un ... ice-index/



Of all things, the price of sugar is dropping per the above link.
However, food oils were the priciest part of the index increase (again, above link).

Lightsaber

The only potential food shortage is in areas where people were already close to the caloric subsistence level.

So, poor people in Africa who could afford rice before, in some cases will not be able to afford rice now. The bottom 1 billion people may need some help. For everyone else, it is about not buying as many treats. Rice is very cheap.

lightsaber wrote:

I'm not certain this is a sign of over-population. There are areas where crop production could increase, US fertilizer

ReverseFlow wrote:

Not just foodstocks, but fertiliser is also getting very expensive so the crops/fields can't be fertilised properly either.

My 2nd to last link noted a transition from corn to soybeans. That would be to avoid fertilizer costs.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-fa ... 21-11-05-0

The sharp reduction in calories per acre when that happens:
https://www.waldeneffect.org/blog/Calor ... %20rows%20

However, the overall trend, at least in the US, is managable:
https://www.farmprogress.com/fertilizer ... n-4-charts

As the article ends, all eyes will be on grain and fertilizer prices this year.

There is definitely a surge in global food prices that started due to the pandemic. The lack of reserves due to lockdowns/disruptions means that any additional crisis is magnified.
https://www.statista.com/chart/20165/un ... ice-index/



Of all things, the price of sugar is dropping per the above link.
However, food oils were the priciest part of the index increase (again, above link).

Lightsaber

Sorry to quote myself; A month newer report came out.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... uyeyTOydnN

The FAO's Food Prices Index, a measure of the most commonly-traded food commodities, rose 12.7%, to 159.3 points, from February's previous record of 141.4. It is the highest reading since the index was developed in 1990.
...
Vegetable-oil prices also shot higher by 23.2% from February, again due to the conflict in Ukraine.
...
Elsewhere, dairy prices rose 2.6% on higher Asian demand, while sugar prices rose 6.7%. Meat prices pushed up 4.8%.


This will hit the poor hard. Countries that import a majority of their wheat, food oil, and feed must now scramble.

It took 2 years into the great pasta shortage, my local supermarket finally has angel hair pasta (8 varieties now, famine to glut). Albeit not for the 89 cents per pound of years gone by. While that is a first world issue to get the exact pasta one's kids desires, I see issues increasing as substitution will create a scramble.

Do I think the richest countries will see famine? Of course not. Although crisps (potato chips) will get pricey and french fry portions will shrink. People will express displeasure at the inconveniences. For countries that import a lot, good luck.

We are one major food exporter stopping exports from a major crisis. Recall what happened when Vietnam halted rice exports a few years back. While rice is in good supply today, what if Indonesia embargoed food oil exports for say a month? Interesting times...

https://www.tridge.com/stories/vietnams ... 20outbreak.

Ghad, over 2.74 million metric tons of palm oil consumed per year. 85% produced in Indonesia and Malaysia. I'm paid to come up with risk scenarios; I see a big one coming with food oil.

https://www.al-khaleej.com.my/top-veget ... -malaysia/

Oh wait, Indonesia is limiting exports of palm oil "to ensure cooking oil prices remain affordable at home."

https://www.reuters.com/world/food-cris ... 022-03-09/

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/a- ... 1649404800
The war in Ukraine has triggered an alarming global surge in government controls on the export of food. It’s critical for policymakers to halt the trend, which is making a global food crisis more likely.
...
But conditions are ripe for a retaliatory cycle in which the scale of restrictions could grow rapidly.


This could be like the rice crisis, avoidable.

https://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/ne ... e%20system.

The Romans are reputed to have claimed that civilization is never more than three meals away from anarchy.


No government can remain if their people go hungry. My worry is a domino effect of export restrictions.

Unfortunately, in my opinion this will be the year food is a diplomatic weapon.

Lightsaber

To add to all these woes. we are going to see some major issues in the west this year. Especially Arizona and California.

https://www.newser.com/story/318913/sno ... worse.html

e snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains, which provides 30% of California's fresh water, is at its lowest level in seven years—a devastating sign of drought conditions to come. The end-of-winter snowpack measurement—which comes from measurements at more than 265 sites across the state, taken annually on April 1—usually returns the most snow of any measurement taken throughout the year. But it's 38% of the normal level this year, officials announced Friday. The measurement at Phillips Station, south of Lake Tahoe, was particularly alarming with snow just 2.5 inches deep, compared to an average of 66.5 inches for this time of year, and containing the equivalent of an inch of water, per CNN.

As awesome as that early storm in December and November was. Jan -March fizzled in the west, and there is now a definite water crisis. Last year got bad enough that they stopped some of the Generators on Lake Orville. Without enough water, they will have to do it again, and this may also mean more farms get water diverted.

The Ukrainian harvest is projected to be less than half of prior years:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddrink/ ... NewsSearch

I honestly see the issue being getting the crops out as my opinion is the infrastructure was to the black sea.

I don't get what China is doing. You would expect them to not really care if a few thousands of people here and there die of COVID, but no, they'd rather screw their economy with lockdowns, not buy good vaccines, not have the vaccine mandatory... And considering how they do it, it's not like they seem to really care about their people, so what gives ?

Aesma wrote:

I don't get what China is doing. You would expect them to not really care if a few thousands of people here and there die of COVID, but no, they'd rather screw their economy with lockdowns, not buy good vaccines, not have the vaccine mandatory... And considering how they do it, it's not like they seem to really care about their people, so what gives ?

Typically, emperors, czars, dictators, various other autocrats and most politicians don't care much about their own people.

Xi may be a maximal leader, but those watching him closely just about also say that he is balancing all of the irrational interests and prejudices the same as any other national leader. His ears are close to the ground, and one could expect that he admires Andy Grove's Only the Paranoid Survive.

cskok8 wrote:

Aesma wrote:

I don't get what China is doing. You would expect them to not really care if a few thousands of people here and there die of COVID, but no, they'd rather screw their economy with lockdowns, not buy good vaccines, not have the vaccine mandatory... And considering how they do it, it's not like they seem to really care about their people, so what gives ?

Typically, emperors, czars, dictators, various other autocrats and most politicians don't care much about their own people.

Rest assured CCP knows what they're doing even if we don't. They are very strategic and think long term.

Aesma wrote:

I don't get what China is doing. You would expect them to not really care if a few thousands of people here and there die of COVID, but no, they'd rather screw their economy with lockdowns, not buy good vaccines, not have the vaccine mandatory... And considering how they do it, it's not like they seem to really care about their people, so what gives ?

From their point of view, they know what they're doing and you/we/their people don't need to. Simple as that.

About Chinese leaders
Some have theorized that opinion he receive, and judgements that he made based on such opinion, could be as bias as what Putin is receiving, due to the similar fear of telling the truth

Folks, this is a food thread. There is a coronavirus thread to deal with aspects that do not directly impact food.

That said:

Chinese lockdowns might affect Spring planting.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory ... e-84077100

No one knows the real impact and that is the concern. How late? How much reduction in fertilizer? Mucking up food production for 1.4 billion people will have global impacts:
Spring planting by Chinese farmers who feed 1.4 billion people might be disrupted, Nomura economists warned Thursday. That could boost demand for imported wheat and other food, pushing up already high global prices.


In my opinion, farm futures were not high enough to incentivise more planting, at least not at today's fertilizer costs. So there could be a bind.

The issue is every country must look out for itself.
Egypt just placed a temporary ban on the export of wheat, rice, food oils, pasta, and beans.
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/20 ... ne-war?amp

Argentina warned beef exporters to reduce domestic inflation or face an export ban:
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/argenti ... xport-bans

Ghana has export controls added:
http://www.apanews.net/en/news/ghanaian ... ans-others

The WTO just issued a ban on food export bans because there are so many:
https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/30390580

I do not think that will work as countries will just ignore that ruling. Or instead of a ban, they must sell enough domestically to achieve low prices a la Argentina.

Society breaks down without food.

Lightsaber

readytotaxi wrote:

When you read all the information on the subject the first thing that leaps out to me is that we have overpopulated the planet. The victim of our own success in the food chain.

It’s not people in western aligned nations that will be dying, it’s most Africans.

Afghanistan, Syria, Haiti too

What would make sense would be to reduce meat production temporarily (for this year, basically). A lot of meat is made using cereals as feed, so make less meat, have more cereal for people.

Aesma wrote:

What would make sense would be to reduce meat production temporarily (for this year, basically). A lot of meat is made using cereals as feed, so make less meat, have more cereal for people.

Most cattle feed is crop residue, which humans can’t eat.

“86% of the global livestock feed intake in dry matter consists of feed materials that are not currently edible for humans”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 2416300013

Well 14% would be good, even 5%. From your link : Livestock consume one third of global cereal production

On the other hand, “ 1 kg of meat requires 2.8 kg of human-edible feed for ruminant…”

I’d guess the nutritional value of 1kg is far superior to 2.8kg of cereal. Especially if you look at more than just calories.

The populations in countries that can’t feed themselves will see a lot of deaths due to starvation. Will those governments finally do something to grow sustainable foods for their populations or continue to be corrupt as hell and let their people continue to starve?

As for developed countries like the US. Last 2 years US life expectancy went down, with people eating worse cheaper foods it will go down even more. I guess that will be good news for the Social Security Administration and those who want to cut benefits.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/07/health/u ... index.html

https://www.salon.com/2022/03/14/gops-n ... e_partner/

Update with state of Texas screwing up deliveries of produce from Mexico, that will make eating healthy even more expensive.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/16/economy/ ... index.html

PPVRA wrote:

On the other hand, “ 1 kg of meat requires 2.8 kg of human-edible feed for ruminant…”

I’d guess the nutritional value of 1kg is far superior to 2.8kg of cereal. Especially if you look at more than just calories.

Not necessarily. But more importantly it wouldn't be the same people eating. In developed countries, we eat too much meat, and we eat too much, period. In the countries where starvation is likely, they already don't eat that much meat, they need their cereals.

SRQLOT wrote:

The populations in countries that can’t feed themselves will see a lot of deaths due to starvation. Will those governments finally do something to grow sustainable foods for their populations or continue to be corrupt as hell and let their people continue to starve?

As for developed countries like the US. Last 2 years US life expectancy went down, with people eating worse cheaper foods it will go down even more. I guess that will be good news for the Social Security Administration and those who want to cut benefits.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/07/health/u ... index.html

https://www.salon.com/2022/03/14/gops-n ... e_partner/

Update with state of Texas screwing up deliveries of produce from Mexico, that will make eating healthy even more expensive.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/16/economy/ ... index.html

If a country can’t produce enough food to feeds its population then there’s an excess population issue that’s goes far beyond this war.

Kiwirob wrote:

If a country can’t produce enough food to feeds its population then there’s an excess population issue that’s goes far beyond this war.

Do you expect a country like Monaco, Kuwait, or Singapore to be able to produce enough food to feed their population? Different countries in the world have their different role in trading in our globalized role. Some export foods for other goods/services while other countries manufacture those goods/services in exchange for foods.
The problem with underdeveloped countries with starving population is that they don't have enough other exports to help fund, buy, acquire foods, and they don't have enough technology, or money to access relevant technologies, to increase their own food production either.

Rich countries are willing to provide all that, the problem is who is at the top in these underdeveloped countries.

As for Monaco's role in our globalized world, it's to steal tax revenue from other countries, not exactly a glorious role.

c933103 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

If a country can’t produce enough food to feeds its population then there’s an excess population issue that’s goes far beyond this war.

Do you expect a country like Monaco, Kuwait, or Singapore to be able to produce enough food to feed their population? Different countries in the world have their different role in trading in our globalized role. Some export foods for other goods/services while other countries manufacture those goods/services in exchange for foods.
The problem with underdeveloped countries with starving population is that they don't have enough other exports to help fund, buy, acquire foods, and they don't have enough technology, or money to access relevant technologies, to increase their own food production either.

Monaco and Singapore are city states, it hardly counts, they are part of the food distribution network of the countries that surround them. Kuwait isn’t a natural country it was carved off from Basra province by the British in 1921.

We have to confront the fact that deeply ignorant people who have no knowledge in some cases, or an absence of character in other cases, are in charge of the world.

Because of the Russian campaign of murder, AND imbecilic Covid policies, we have runaway supplies of money in the hands of rich country citizens at the same time as food supply is declining. Energy production and transmission faces obstacles. This will guarantee inflation across many sectors -agriculture is only one. So yes, many millions of poor people will probably die. I think the people I know will be just fine.

LCDFlight - your comments are spot on. But the West will see even more migration as a result.

We in North America might see this as soon as the border restrictions due to COVID are lifted. I hope some of them are farmers.

Kiwirob wrote:

Kuwait isn’t a natural country it was carved off from Basra province by the British in 1921.

What do you mean? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Kuw ... nt_of_1899 The local independent ruler of Kuwait signed a treaty with Britain to guarantee its independence just twenty years before that

In my opinion, far too much food ends up in the bin. A lot of baked goods are not sold, meals that are too lavish are served in restaurants, or expired food is simply thrown away. Family members and acquaintances of mine tell me that this makes up about 40 percent of the whole. We should be more careful to avoid this, which shouldn't be too difficult. Any little thing can turn out to be a big one if everyone participates

oldJoe wrote:

In my opinion, far too much food ends up in the bin. A lot of baked goods are not sold, meals that are too lavish are served in restaurants, or expired food is simply thrown away. Family members and acquaintances of mine tell me that this makes up about 40 percent of the whole. We should be more careful to avoid this, which shouldn't be too difficult. Any little thing can turn out to be a big one if everyone participates

Chinese government tried to fight against food wastage in past few years. Didn't end up helping much when things went wrong.
Main problem is that it is easier/cheaper/less likely to have bad consequences to prepare excess and throw them away when they aren't useful, than is either preparing less and face probability of being not enough, or spending extra storage space to store foods for extended period of time probably requiring refrigerator or facing potential health/legal risk of having overdue food, or to employ manpower to specifically check the condition of each of the food items in details regarding their conditions.
Increase in food supply price/cost will naturally push individuals/restaurants/shops to minimize some of such behavior, but the effect will probably be not as much as expected, as extra labor cost and extra storage space cost to employ these measures are still most likely to be far higher than the cost of some foods that can be saved from such process.

One thing that would help tho is for individual to learn the different between "best before" and actual expiry date.

This is the global food shortage thread. Please take off topic discussion elsewhere.

A potential food shortage and developing food security could be a unifying agreement for all of the world, even including Russia, The Ukraine, and China. I remember in the 50s/60s(?) piles of wheat and corn with no customers. We should have at least a 6 month supply of food stored to feed all of the world. Regarding meat consumption, it actually would need to be done with care, there is/are no on/off switches and those sorts of changes are complicated. Major grain producers should be paid to maintain a supply. Consuming nations would be required to maintain at least a few month's supply if they wanted to be participants. Without an agreement and cost sharing it is useless for the WTO to announce that bans on exports should be banned.