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A101
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Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

Thu May 19, 2022 9:32 pm

Well 24 hours to go before Australia goes to the polls.

Just watching the morning shows with the last interviews and they have the latest polls out.

I'm not one to really look at polls but looking at primary vote its really close ALP 36 Coalition 35 and the last hung Parliament in 2010 in which both main parties had 72 seats each, With the ALP 36 Coalition 43 what's telling in these numbers in 2010 the ALP lost 11 seats and the Coalition picked up 7

If these numbers are correct then the Coalition is in for a mauling certainly going to be interesting to watch as the primary vote appears to be lower than in 2010

I think the ALP will come out with their numbers intact 68 seats but with the rise of the teals well I think the coalition will drop to around 64 -65 seats think that's impossible for the coalition to form a minority government


But then the last election they had the ALP winning comfortable for a majority government so time will tell if polling have fixed its problems
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

Thu May 19, 2022 10:50 pm

It’s going to be interesting, that’s for sure. A hung parliament does seem the most likely outcome though.

The polling companies have changed their methodology since 2019, and called QLD, WA, SA state elections pretty accurately, but with so many independents running it is anyone’s guess at this point. The national 2PP polls are largely meaningless is the seats which could cause an upset.
 
A101
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Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

Thu May 19, 2022 11:10 pm

Well its seems from opposition that the ALP has already had an effect of the AWR, possibility of a split increase from those on the minimum and highest award rates


https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/0 ... fair-work/
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

Thu May 19, 2022 11:10 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
It’s going to be interesting, that’s for sure. A hung parliament does seem the most likely outcome though.

The polling companies have changed their methodology since 2019, and called QLD, WA, SA state elections pretty accurately, but with so many independents running it is anyone’s guess at this point. The national 2PP polls are largely meaningless is the seats which could cause an upset.


If anything the polling for the last Qld and WA elections underestimated the ALP vote, SA they got it very close but still a slight underestimate of ALP.

It’s interesting to back and look at the recent history of state and federal decisions. The final 2PP figure is rarely beyond 53-47 to one party, especially at the federal level, with the exception of WA 2021 (ALP 2PP 70%!). Elections are narrower than they are portrayed to be, and a “landslide” win usually isn’t,

I still think the announcement of the enticing but ultimately disastrous “Super for houses” policy (in effect a bribe) added to the media bias shown to the Coalition (Channel 9 Chairman Peter Costello seen campaigning with Josh Frydenberg, thought the media were meant to be impartial!) will tip it over the line for the Libs.

It may be a narrow majority, or a minority with the likes of Bob Katter (and ultimately Barnaby Joyce) running the show. But the Liberal propaganda machine ultimately works.

For the record my ideal government would be a minority ALP one, they have a better team but I think the addition of “teal” independents would be a great addition and they have a lot to add to the nation. They would also force the current Liberal party to look at ridding themselves of some of the extremist fundamentalist elements that now dominate their party.
 
A101
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Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

Thu May 19, 2022 11:47 pm

I also just looked up, if no main party can form a minority government out right with independents (from what I have seen the teals have not said which party they will support) then conventions will favour the care tacker PM to test support on the floor of Parliament but that is the most of unlikely scenarios, but being a minority government can lead to a change in PM if the independents block supply which happened to the Menzies government in 1941 which lead to the formation of the Liberal party in 1944

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament ... sentatives.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

Fri May 20, 2022 12:58 am

Well the independents will probably support the Coalition if:

They drop Morrison as leader and put in a moderate
They commit to concrete action on climate change
They form a federal ICAC with teeth
They drop the religious nonsense dominating the party at the moment

Knifing a leader is no problem but some in the Coalition will hold solid against some of those other proposals.

If not then they’ll probably back Labor, but expect a “Liberal lite” version restrained from making a lot of the structural changes this country needs
 
A101
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Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

Fri May 20, 2022 10:02 pm

    The voting has just begun in Australia

    Hopefully we will know by around 2100 who is in and who is out, but if it’s close be a few days

    The last hung parliament had taken 12 days to declare a PM

    The weather is shocking out there, glad I voted early
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 12:31 am

    https://mobile.twitter.com/cokeefe9/sta ... 4837991424

    Wonder what’s on a $10 democracy sausage
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 3:31 am

    https://mobile.twitter.com/LaurenTomasi ... 9502270465

    I wonder if Albo going to get upset with that one, since he was not happy about the it’s not going to be easy with Albenese Ad

    But the Barnaby looks look the pick of the crop, pulled pork roll yum yum
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 5:17 am

    Here they come :banghead:

    https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101087492

    They didn’t time it right they should have waited a couple of weeks to see who the PM is
     
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    RyanairGuru
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 5:22 am

    A101 wrote:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/LaurenTomasi/status/1527825119502270465

    I wonder if Albo going to get upset with that one, since he was not happy about the it’s not going to be easy with Albenese Ad

    But the Barnaby looks look the pick of the crop, pulled pork roll yum yum


    That’s slightly misstating Alabanese’s comment on that line, he said he personally was not offended, but understood why others with non-Anglo Celtic names felt it was offensive.

    One of Scott “I promise to be different” Morrison’s less empathetic moments was to “reject the premise of the question” when asked whether he also understood why some people from non-Anglo Celtic backgrounds found its distasteful.

    Back to the topic, good on whoever had fun with those names!
     
    cpd
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 6:32 am

    Those too conveniently timed boats might have been a setup job:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federa ... 87b6b59ebb

    The LNP propaganda machine was charged up to get those text messages out quick smart. Many people already voted, so it’s a bit of a waste of effort.

    Also a breach of the normal LNP policy of no talking about “on water operations”.

    I wouldn’t put it past the LNP to have set this up.

    No food for me, my vote was done well before today. Just as well, it rained heavily today - which would be dangerous for me to be out and about. One slip or fall and I’d be back in hospital.
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 9:14 am

    cpd wrote:
    Those too conveniently timed boats might have been a setup job:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federa ... 87b6b59ebb

    The LNP propaganda machine was charged up to get those text messages out quick smart. Many people already voted, so it’s a bit of a waste of effort.

    Also a breach of the normal LNP policy of no talking about “on water operations”.

    I wouldn’t put it past the LNP to have set this up.

    No food for me, my vote was done well before today. Just as well, it rained heavily today - which would be dangerous for me to be out and about. One slip or fall and I’d be back in hospital.


    I doubt it was a set up as if it were it would have been better to announce it yesterday, its also on ADF website

    https://www.abf.gov.au/newsroom-subsite ... epted.aspx
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 10:45 am

    Well i gunna call it

    ALP minority government

    the independents have done extremally well
     
    cpd
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 10:56 am

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federa ... 4dfe883349

    Barnaby Joyce slams independent teal candidates for being selfish.

    I don’t think so, it’s just that LNP has abandoned its traditional base with what looks like disastrous results. And this isn’t selfish, it’s democracy. LNP got complacent and appears to have considered these blue ribbon seats as their own by right.

    Greens vote is strong too.

    It’s still too close to call. LNP might still get home, my fingers are crossed they do and then they get to own the economic environment going forward.
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 11:38 am

    Channel nine calling it for the ALP

    libs got smacked hard by the teals
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 11:51 am

    Im just hoping that the ALP can form government in their own right and not be beholden to the greens
     
    Kent350787
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 12:06 pm

    A101 wrote:
    Im just hoping that the ALP can form government in their own right and not be beholden to the greens

    I too want a Labor majority but the e “beholden to the Greens” is just Lib bs scaremongering.

    If negotiation is needed, it will be interesting to see whether the independents or Greens will guarantee the Albanese government.
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 12:18 pm

    Kent350787 wrote:
    A101 wrote:
    Im just hoping that the ALP can form government in their own right and not be beholden to the greens

    I too want a Labor majority but the e “beholden to the Greens” is just Lib bs scaremongering.

    If negotiation is needed, it will be interesting to see whether the independents or Greens will guarantee the Albanese government.


    Off course they will be, we saw that under Gillard, agreements can be broken. i think on NDS they will be ok they will push harder on green policy along with he teals. its going to be very difficult time for defence and border controls and that is were they are going to have to stand up and be counted when the boats come and they will now come and test their resolve, it could well be the decisive issue at the next election and could well be the issue on whether they have a second term or not

    ALP have made a rod for there back, now its time to deliver, it wont be easy for Albanese for the next 3 years
     
    cpd
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 12:20 pm

    The LNP smacked themselves with their born to rule mentality. And a stupid idea of Katherine Deves. That didn’t have the effect it was supposed to, and they just lost a blue ribbon LNP seat.

    Other comments that LNP had a right to those seats…

    What happens now to the biggest LNP cheerleaders in the media and online, even in forums? All the attacks and barracking (and fontsize 200 posts) didn’t work. Do we go back to real journalism now?

    And what about the LNP? Who now becomes the controlling block in that?

    Surprised, Andrew Constance gets it…
    Last edited by cpd on Sat May 21, 2022 12:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
     
    sierrakilo44
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 12:34 pm

    A101 wrote:
    Im just hoping that the ALP can form government in their own right and not be beholden to the greens



    What this election has shown, with a large swing to the ALP, Greens and Teals is that the Australian people want:

    Action on climate change
    Action on corruption in politics
    Stopping the American style culture war nonsense
    More representative politics (the amount of intelligent women replacing old boys club men is staggering)

    ABC's Vote Compass has shown that Climate Change is the number one concern for voters. The Coalition still has multiple climate deniers and won't commit to a firm net zero target.

    The other big factor is Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer have had no gains and will have no influence on the final result. People don't want far right politics, and they think the Coalition have moved too far right.
     
    cpd
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 12:36 pm

    sierrakilo44 wrote:
    A101 wrote:
    Im just hoping that the ALP can form government in their own right and not be beholden to the greens



    What this election has shown, with a large swing to the ALP, Greens and Teals is that the Australian people want:

    Action on climate change
    Action on corruption in politics
    Stopping the American style culture war nonsense
    More representative politics (the amount of intelligent women replacing old boys club men is staggering)

    ABC's Vote Compass has shown that Climate Change is the number one concern for voters. The Coalition still has multiple climate deniers and won't commit to a firm net zero target.

    The other big factor is Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer have had no gains and will have no influence on the final result. People don't want far right politics, and they think the Coalition have moved too far right.


    Craig Kelly has even lost out too. Gone completely. Now hopefully we can get away from this divisive politics.
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 12:49 pm

    cpd wrote:
    The LNP smacked themselves with their born to rule mentality. And a stupid idea of Katherine Deves. That didn’t have the effect it was supposed to, and they just lost a blue ribbon LNP seat.

    Other comments that LNP had a right to those seats…

    What happens now to the biggest LNP cheerleaders in the media and online, even in forums? All the attacks and barracking (and fontsize 200 posts) didn’t work. Do we go back to real journalism now?

    And what about the LNP? Who now becomes the controlling block in that?

    Surprised, Andrew Constance gets it…


    What happens now just like every other day when whoever is in government, i get up put my shoes on and get on with life then at the next election i see who i think will best represent me

    Over my many years I've voted labour, conservative, ALP, coalition and even Don Chip with the Australian Democrats

    And if I don't think Albo is doing any good i keep calling it out even in larger font size, that's politics
     
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 1:00 pm

    Mark McGowan is the big winner tonight. ALP have won all three seats they targeted, including Hasluck which both sides thought would be unlikely to fall. Moreover, they have won at least one seat (Tangney) that they didn’t even campaign in, and two more are too close to call. A teal independent has also won Curtin. While not as emphatic as the state election, the Liberals have been routed in WA.
     
    sierrakilo44
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 1:56 pm

    RyanairGuru wrote:
    Moreover, they have won at least one seat (Tangney) that they didn’t even campaign in


    That Liberal MP was one of Morrison’s lieutenants parachuted into WA to to control the WA party and who barely spent any time in state, most of it in Canberra.

    So glad he got the boot

    So glad......
     
    sierrakilo44
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 2:01 pm

    It also seems a lot of seats with high levels of Chinese or Asian background voters have swung heavily against the Liberals.

    A sign the new government needs to adopt a more diplomatic relationship with our neighbours.
     
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    RyanairGuru
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 2:57 pm

    sierrakilo44 wrote:
    It also seems a lot of seats with high levels of Chinese or Asian background voters have swung heavily against the Liberals.

    A sign the new government needs to adopt a more diplomatic relationship with our neighbours.


    The swing against the Liberals in the seats with the highest percentage of Chinese speakers is really pronounced.

    That said, Fowler is a reminder that Labor cannot take the Asian Australian vote for granted. They overrode the local party members who would have preselected a popular local Vietnamese-Australian candidate, to parachute in a wealthy white person who lives on the Northern Beaches. They therefore lost a very safe Labor seat to a Liberal-aligned Vietnamese-Australian independent.
     
    sierrakilo44
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 3:21 pm

    RyanairGuru wrote:

    The swing against the Liberals in the seats with the highest percentage of Chinese speakers is really pronounced.

    That said, Fowler is a reminder that Labor cannot take the Asian Australian vote for granted. They overrode the local party members who would have preselected a popular local Vietnamese-Australian candidate, to parachute in a wealthy white person who lives on the Northern Beaches. They therefore lost a very safe Labor seat to a Liberal-aligned Vietnamese-Australian independent.


    Yes important for both parties.

    It’s incumbent on Labor to now stop this anti Asian rhetoric that has been building up over the last two years and realise what part of the world Australia lies in.

    15-25% of the population of Australian cities is of Asian heritage.

    As a point too Albanese is also the first Prime Minister of non full Anglo Celtic heritage (Italian father Irish mother)

    Quite remarkable considering almost 50% of Australia is non Anglo Celtic now
     
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    Dutchy
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 5:30 pm

    Good to see that Australians want a more progressive leadership and more progress in combating climate change. But even Labor doesn't move beyond the 2degrees scenario. So hope for more Green influence to get more in line with the 1,5degrees scenario.
     
    Arion640
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 5:54 pm

    What does Albanese/Labour stand for?

    More left wing, or centrist?
     
    ltbewr
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 7:20 pm

    I notice (I am from New Jersey, USA) that it seems Australians are much more concerned with climate change issues thus the increased support of the 'Green' Party. Australia has seen throughout the country be an massive warning sign of increased global warming and its effects. Massive fires, droughts, floods, the dying of the Great Barrier Reef are affecting persons in the cities, suburbs and the massive sheep stations.
    I would also suggest that younger voters are part of that shift to 'greener' policies to deal with AGW, along with shifts to a more moderate foreign policy - especially with China, moderate immigration policy, a need for good jobs and affordable housing.
     
    cpd
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 7:54 pm

    Arion640 wrote:
    What does Albanese/Labour stand for?

    More left wing, or centrist?


    Murdoch and the cheerleaders will say radical extreme left wing but in reality it is centre right wing. I think China will be under a lot of pressure with the new government too.

    This was a stinging critique by Peter Hartcher:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 5anda.html (Open in private window)

    They abandoned their traditional base and got belted because of it. The quiet Australians spoke again. That’s another thing, the LNP seemed to assume they owned the quiet Australian vote through diversions such as Katherine Deves.


    Will the LNP rebuild itself as a more moderate party after this disaster or will it move hard right wing under the direction of Peter Dutton and Sky News?
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 8:32 pm

    sierrakilo44 wrote:
    What this election has shown, with a large swing to the ALP, Greens and Teals is that the Australian people want:

    Sorry I don’t 100% agree on that the swing to the ALP appears very marginal national on average 2.8% two-party preferred but that goes up and down depending on seats.

    Teals are majority liberal left; they only went after liberal held seats in more affluent electorates as did the greens where policy of climate change will not be felt so hard.
    sierrakilo44 wrote:
    Action on climate change
    Action on corruption in politics
    Stopping the American style culture war nonsense
    More representative politics (the amount of intelligent women replacing old boys club men is staggering)
    ABC's Vote Compass has shown that Climate Change is the number one concern for voters. The Coalition still has multiple climate deniers and won't commit to a firm net zero target.

    I would not put too much stock on the ABS vote compass, that’s only preaching to the choir as for climate at grass roots think most realise that Australia can do bugger all about the effects, but when the fossil fuels start losing jobs on mass, I think the ALP will be in trouble at the grass roots level

    You are never going to stamp out corruption fully someone always going to be looking for a hand out.

    What you describe as American style culture war has always been the soft underbelly of Australian politics, its just now that the electorate is so diverse than it’s ever been with the 24/7 news cycle

    It funny how you mention representative politics, as I was watching the seats fall and I think it’s been proportional across the nation, whilst the attention was in the Teals and the women, I was amazed with the number of women who lost their seats nationally.

    sierrakilo44 wrote:
    The other big factor is Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer have had no gains and will have no influence on the final result. People don't want far right politics, and they think the Coalition have moved too far right.


    Nope it’s always been about the protest vote and that’s who they targeted; I don’t think the last Morrison government were that different than the Howard ministry
    Albanese made it about personalities, he has the softer profile than Morrison and that resonated within the ALP vote, I think this was the most lacklustre election campaign I have seen in a long time and because of the type of campaign Albanese ran he has got to prove himself in this first term, time will tell and see who he fairs.
     
    SpaceshipDC10
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 10:34 pm

    The fact that Dutton & Morisson will no longer be in governent is for the better. Australia needs something better than their outdated mindsets.
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sat May 21, 2022 11:25 pm

    SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
    The fact that Dutton & Morisson will no longer be in governent is for the better. Australia needs something better than their outdated mindsets.



    Dutton is most likely to be the next opposition leader, I hope not. As for Morrison I think he will retire from politics in the next few months

    What is interesting and this is hopeful for the coalition in the future is the 2PP the coalition is ahead with 3,835,976(35.4%) and ALP with 3,554,410 (32.8%) normally on 2PP its generally 80%+ between them so its not all good news for the ALP Albanese has got a lot of work to do over the next 3 years
     
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    RyanairGuru
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 12:26 am

    A101 wrote:
    SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
    The fact that Dutton & Morisson will no longer be in governent is for the better. Australia needs something better than their outdated mindsets.



    Dutton is most likely to be the next opposition leader, I hope not. As for Morrison I think he will retire from politics in the next few months

    What is interesting and this is hopeful for the coalition in the future is the 2PP the coalition is ahead with 3,835,976(35.4%) and ALP with 3,554,410 (32.8%) normally on 2PP its generally 80%+ between them so its not all good news for the ALP Albanese has got a lot of work to do over the next 3 years


    Those aren’t 2PP numbers, they’re first preferences. The 2PP is around 52% ALP, but the numbers are still bouncing around a bit.

    Labor have an issue with their primary vote, and have done for years, but in a preferential voting system it isn’t too important as they receive the overwhelming proportion of Greens preferences.
     
    A101
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 12:38 am

    RyanairGuru wrote:
    A101 wrote:
    SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
    The fact that Dutton & Morisson will no longer be in governent is for the better. Australia needs something better than their outdated mindsets.



    Dutton is most likely to be the next opposition leader, I hope not. As for Morrison I think he will retire from politics in the next few months

    What is interesting and this is hopeful for the coalition in the future is the 2PP the coalition is ahead with 3,835,976(35.4%) and ALP with 3,554,410 (32.8%) normally on 2PP its generally 80%+ between them so its not all good news for the ALP Albanese has got a lot of work to do over the next 3 years


    Those aren’t 2PP numbers, they’re first preferences. The 2PP is around 52% ALP, but the numbers are still bouncing around a bit.

    Labor have an issue with their primary vote, and have done for years, but in a preferential voting system it isn’t too important as they receive the overwhelming proportion of Greens preferences.



    According to the guardian link they are total votes, obviously that will jump around a fair bit when the final tally is announced

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... seat-count
     
    sierrakilo44
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 12:52 am

    A101 wrote:

    According to the guardian link they are total votes, obviously that will jump around a fair bit when the final tally is announced


    What they call “total” votes are primary votes.

    What that shows is that whilst overall the people don’t want Morrison’s Coalition, the current ALP has moved a little too far right as well. The strong Green and Teal vote means people want a government further left of where the ALP is at the moment.

    But I’m glad to see even you realise this is a bad thing:

    Dutton is most likely to be the next opposition leader, I hope not.


    We’ve just had an election where divisive incompetent right wing politics that turns women off has been rejected, and the Liberal’s solution is to install another divisive right wing conservative who turns women off?!

    Problem is there’s no one else in the Liberals who can/wants to lead. They could face two or more terms in the wilderness
     
    cpd
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    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 1:05 am

    What we really need is a very strong 3rd party that is firmly in the centre, further to the centre of politics than LNP and Labor. Various people in the LNP were complaining about a possible end to the two party system, but this is probably the best thing we can have occur.

    It will keep the traditional major parties on their toes.

    I also like the idea from Monique Ryan of a strong independent federal ICAC.

    sierrakilo44 wrote:
    We’ve just had an election where divisive incompetent right wing politics that turns women off has been rejected, and the Liberal’s solution is to install another divisive right wing conservative who turns women off?!

    Problem is there’s no one else in the Liberals who can/wants to lead. They could face two or more terms in the wilderness


    They live in their own parallel universe along with Sky News and they just don't get it. If they have two or more terms in the wilderness it might be good for them to figure out why they were tossed out. Then they can slowly rebuild with new people.
     
    sierrakilo44
    Posts: 910
    Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 2:13 am

    cpd wrote:
    They live in their own parallel universe along with Sky News and they just don't get it. If they have two or more terms in the wilderness it might be good for them to figure out why they were tossed out. Then they can slowly rebuild with new people.


    You would think that, but I fear their plan will be to just keep moving further right, and get their media allies to spend the next 3 years destroying Albanese and Teals as they did with Rudd and Gillard, and then swoop back into power with an even farther right agenda.

    We desperately need a Royal Commission into Media Ownership into this country, and the ABC Board needs to be purged of Liberal appointed heavyweights, otherwise Australia will be under a Dutton led government sooner than we think.
     
    cpd
    Posts: 7251
    Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 2:15 am

    Labor has a majority now according to News Corp:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federa ... 5f320cbc28

    Among the races called on Sunday were the Sydney seat of Bennelong, where Labor’s Jerome Laxale is the likely winner over the Liberals’ Simon Kennedy, and the Victorian seat of Deakin where Michael Sukkar has been unseated by Matt Gregg.

    Only four seats remain in doubt – Lyons, TAS (ALP), Menzies, VIC (LIB), Moore, WA (LIB) and Sturt, SA (LIB).


    There is talk of Angus Taylor potentially leading the LNP:

    https://amp.9news.com.au/article/46fbb3 ... 1376fb5290

    This says they have learned nothing at all.

    A look into media ownership would be a good thing too, the media landscape is so one sided it isn’t funny.

    Palmer didn’t do well this time:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... al-success

    Spending a huge amount of money and failing to get anything from it.
     
    sierrakilo44
    Posts: 910
    Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 4:07 am

    cpd wrote:

    There is talk of Angus Taylor potentially leading the LNP:

    https://amp.9news.com.au/article/46fbb3 ... 1376fb5290

    This says they have learned nothing at all.

    A look into media ownership would be a good thing too, the media landscape is so one sided it isn’t funny.

    Palmer didn’t do well this time:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... al-success

    Spending a huge amount of money and failing to get anything from it.


    Angus Taylor? The same guy who praises himself on social media whilst pretending to be someone else?!

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-48119878

    Taylor is just another pro coal climate denying anti LGBT right wing conservative. But that's pretty much all the Liberals have left. He won't get leadership as Dutton will bully his way in there.

    Taylor was also just ranked the 7th most distrusted politician in the country. Dutton grabbed 2nd, Morrison at the top (or should I say bottom). Most trusted were Wong, Albo, Plibersek, McGowan, Lambie and Bandt, and that was reflected in last night's results.
     
    cpd
    Posts: 7251
    Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 7:35 am

    Might see David Pocock in the senate (ACT):

    https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101087866

    I hope he makes it through. I didn’t ever follow him in his previous career as a rugby union player, but he’s really taking some good stands now.

    The conservatives were definitely scared of him:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-19/ ... /101078966
     
    SpaceshipDC10
    Posts: 7194
    Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:44 am

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 7:54 am

    A101 wrote:
    SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
    The fact that Dutton & Morisson will no longer be in governent is for the better. Australia needs something better than their outdated mindsets.



    Dutton is most likely to be the next opposition leader, I hope not. As for Morrison I think he will retire from politics in the next few months


    Probably although I hope not too, however being in the oppositition is at least not the same as governing.
     
    cpd
    Posts: 7251
    Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 8:16 am

    SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
    A101 wrote:
    SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
    The fact that Dutton & Morisson will no longer be in governent is for the better. Australia needs something better than their outdated mindsets.



    Dutton is most likely to be the next opposition leader, I hope not. As for Morrison I think he will retire from politics in the next few months


    Probably although I hope not too, however being in the oppositition is at least not the same as governing.


    It depends on if they can block things in the senate.

    “It is the job of the opposition to oppose”

    Said a former Liberal leader. Will they simply try to block everything and get Sky News and Daily Terrorgraph to run 1000 days of negative stories?
     
    User avatar
    zkojq
    Posts: 4966
    Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 9:00 am

    Is anyone else excited about a federal ICAC? :bouncy:

    I watched a bit of the coverage last night and I was astounded at how badly Scummo did in terms of trustworthiness in one of the graphics that was shown; only 2.9 out if ten ladies trust him. That's impressively pathetic....and yet considering all the parliamentary scandals over recent years, I guess that's well earned.

    Agree with many of the other sentiments here about how amusing it is that LNP manage too keep the myth of being "the natural party of the economy" going. They're terrible economic managers. Rudd did a good job with the economy when he was in power.

    I also agree with RyanairGuru's quip about how Albanese and the Labor platform isn't very inspiring in terms of platform. But maybe that's what's needed to get the election done? There's a lot to be said for the notion that anything bold/big in terms of platform can be turned into a big liability in the age of negative campaigning and focus group tested soundbites/slogans. It's rather sad that the battle of ideas is, in reality, a battle of how those ideas are marketed.

    sierrakilo44 wrote:
    What this election has shown, with a large swing to the ALP, Greens and Teals is that the Australian people want:

    Action on climate change
    Action on corruption in politics
    Stopping the American style culture war nonsense
    More representative politics (the amount of intelligent women replacing old boys club men is staggering.


    I'm particularly relieved about that, especially the rejection of America style culture wars. I'm generally someone who is nonchalant on transgender issues (other than despising those who try and harrass them) but not much makes me angrier than far-right leaders using that as a wedge issue to scare people into voting against their own interests. We've been seeing this in the UK where a very weak and incompetent Prime Minister has tried to use "he thinks that a man is a women" as a distraction from his own scandals. Just repugnant.

    Here in New Zealand we have some local far-right group that's been trying to organize a local speaking tour for Candace Owens with the intent of sparking the relevant culture wars here. Happily her visa was rejected. Still, I dispair at the though of all this crap. Steve Bannon has setup/taken-over some fringe outfit here and it (along with other groups) was successful in organizing an illegal deplorables protest that occupied parliament for a couple of weeks. It's also spread/pushed various conspiracy theories akin to pizzagate involving people they don't like. There will be more attempts. Whilst the vast majority of Australians (and kiwis) reject this nonsense, you only have to capture 10-15% of the population for the country to have a very serious problem. If Dutton gets the LNP leadership then I'm sure Murdock would happily give these people a platform if he thinks he can get the government involved in the culture war and knock down their approval ratings.

    cpd wrote:
    What we really need is a very strong 3rd party that is firmly in the centre, further to the centre of politics than LNP and Labor. Various people in the LNP were complaining about a possible end to the two party system, but this is probably the best thing we can have occur.

    It will keep the traditional major parties on their toes.


    It sounds great in theory, but in France it had the opposite effect. LREM takes most of the moderate votes, driving down the other (major) parties and making the extremist parties relatively more popular. Thus the extremists have a much bigger voice in the national discourse and their platform is thus amplified.

    A101 wrote:
    Cancelling the French boats with only a 5billion expenditure is pretty cheap in my book when you consider we would have less capability at 90Billion and counting with the French


    The new subs will arrive ten years later than the French subs and cost more - an absolute masterstroke from Scomo! The Collins Class subs are old and need replacing now, not in 2040.

    This isn't like planes where a gap caused by cancelling your delayed 787s and ordering some A350s (with later delivery dates) to replace them can be bridged with a call to AerCap of AirLease....

    cpd wrote:
    My voting is all done and has been received by the AEC.

    Good to get it out of the way but just a shame the circumstances that brought about that. Wrecked my year completely.


    Get well soon!
     
    bluecrew
    Posts: 292
    Joined: Sun Apr 20, 2014 3:13 am

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 9:19 am

    zkojq wrote:
    A101 wrote:
    Cancelling the French boats with only a 5billion expenditure is pretty cheap in my book when you consider we would have less capability at 90Billion and counting with the French


    The new subs will arrive ten years later than the French subs and cost more - an absolute masterstroke from Scomo! The Collins Class subs are old and need replacing now, not in 2040.

    This isn't like planes where a gap caused by cancelling your delayed 787s and ordering some A350s (with later delivery dates) to replace them can be bridged with a call to AerCap of AirLease....

    Arguably more capable platform, as it's a nuke boat that was, on paper, upgraded with a potentially better, quieter, cheaper diesel system... but it's never existed in the wild yet. The only issue is the only existing Barracuda has taken 15 years since the keel was laid down, and it's still not in service. How do you know France can actually deliver on the export contract in time? Significant engineering hurdles ahead, chasing the export contracts, but even for the domestic market is has taken forever.

    Would have potentially been a better deal if the US had also offered to transfer some older Los Angeles class SSNs or provide export versions of the Virginia to Australia instead of hoping that the domestic shipbuilding industry can produce a reasonably capable first nuclear sub. Electric Boat knows how to make a sub.
     
    cpd
    Posts: 7251
    Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 9:41 am

    Sky “News” is unhappy with Simon Birmingham’s assessment on Katherine Deves:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-ac ... 3cbb158fb1

    Birmingham was right though. The Libs experiment with this firebrand blew up badly. They won nothing much, but lost a heap of their traditional safe seats.

    Outsiders hosts Rowan Dean, James Morrow and Rita Panahi were all in agreement.

    Dean calling Birmingham a “pompous git” and Morrow went as far as calling Ms Deves’ outcome a victory.


    Dean even went as far as saying the result “must be proof Ms Deves’ conservative opinions were more appealing than the “squishy” values of moderate Liberals”

    That just goes to show how crazy they are. They just blew up their own party. Just dumb.
     
    Arion640
    Posts: 3336
    Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 10:10 am

    cpd wrote:
    What we really need is a very strong 3rd party that is firmly in the centre, further to the centre of politics than LNP and Labor. Various people in the LNP were complaining about a possible end to the two party system, but this is probably the best thing we can have occur.

    It will keep the traditional major parties on their toes.

    I also like the idea from Monique Ryan of a strong independent federal ICAC.

    sierrakilo44 wrote:
    We’ve just had an election where divisive incompetent right wing politics that turns women off has been rejected, and the Liberal’s solution is to install another divisive right wing conservative who turns women off?!

    Problem is there’s no one else in the Liberals who can/wants to lead. They could face two or more terms in the wilderness


    They live in their own parallel universe along with Sky News and they just don't get it. If they have two or more terms in the wilderness it might be good for them to figure out why they were tossed out. Then they can slowly rebuild with new people.


    We need a 3rd centrist party in the UK too. We are supposed to have a centrist party but they are wholly incapable of going anywhere.
     
    A101
    Topic Author
    Posts: 2961
    Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

    Re: Australian Federal Election 2022

    Sun May 22, 2022 10:45 am

    bluecrew wrote:
    zkojq wrote:
    A101 wrote:
    Cancelling the French boats with only a 5billion expenditure is pretty cheap in my book when you consider we would have less capability at 90Billion and counting with the French


    The new subs will arrive ten years later than the French subs and cost more - an absolute masterstroke from Scomo! The Collins Class subs are old and need replacing now, not in 2040.

    This isn't like planes where a gap caused by cancelling your delayed 787s and ordering some A350s (with later delivery dates) to replace them can be bridged with a call to AerCap of AirLease....



    Arguably more capable platform, as it's a nuke boat that was, on paper, upgraded with a potentially better, quieter, cheaper diesel system... but it's never existed in the wild yet. The only issue is the only existing Barracuda has taken 15 years since the keel was laid down, and it's still not in service. How do you know France can actually deliver on the export contract in time? Significant engineering hurdles ahead, chasing the export contracts, but even for the domestic market is has taken forever.

    Would have potentially been a better deal if the US had also offered to transfer some older Los Angeles class SSNs or provide export versions of the Virginia to Australia instead of hoping that the domestic shipbuilding industry can produce a reasonably capable first nuclear sub. Electric Boat knows how to make a sub.



    Yes nuclear are the better choice for the RAN, for endurance an indiscretion ratio alone. The RAN were trying to make a conventional powered nuc boats. the replacement of Collins and delays can be traced right back to the last Gillard government when it reduced funding to the ADF as at that stage they were looking at clean sheet options both sides can share the blame to where they stand with the replacement project

    The French had already missed two key design milestones let alone the delays with contract negotiations delays so the actual delivery would most likely occur with the nuclear drumbeat

    There was no point in a hot transfer of LA boats as the RAN is not yet up to speed with the intricacies of nuclear boats, it a case of crawl walk run in building the workforce

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