I think the coalition have a very good chance of picking them back up for the Teals most likely will not replicate that swing again next election.
There have already been multiple successful independent candidates - Wilkie, Haines, McGowan, Sharkie even Katter. Once an independent is established in a seat (and they’re doing a good job) it’s very likely they stay there. Like Zali Steggal, second election and she increased her vote, after the Liberals decided putting an anti-LGBT candidate in one of the most pro-LGBT seats in the country was a good idea......
I can guarantee you the Teal seats will remain Teal if the Liberals install Peter Dutton as leader. When the issues on Teal seats involved treatment of women, better treatment of LGBT, action against climate change, a more temperate style of politics and less corruption, why do the Liberals think Dutton, who’s either the same or more to the right than Morrison on those issues, could possibly attract voters back to the Liberals?
The teal seats want a Malcolm Turnbull style party. Not a Peter Dutton party. Unfortunately for the Liberals that’s all they have to install as leader.
Dutton will attract zero teals back to the Liberals.
Another point that’ll hurt the Liberals - Chinese Australian voters. It’s no secret Dutton is one of the most pro war politicians in the Liberals, you can see him begging for a conflict with China. But it was Chinese Australian voters who trounced the Liberals in a lot of their seats. There’s up to 1.5 million Australians of Chinese ancestry, a lot of them in marginal seats and used to be traditional Liberal voters. However with the Liberals adopting Trump style anti Asian rhetoric and warmongering with China, these voters abandoned the Liberals and delivered double digit swings to Labor, which swung several marginal seats.
Going further to the right doesn’t get the Teal seats back for the Coalition, it doesn’t get the marginal suburban seats back. They may get some of the One Nation vote back but that vote was coming back to the Liberals as preferences.
Going further right means more Teals start to run across the country (don’t forget Teals only ran in a handful of seats this election, and won most of them), and Liberals are basically decimated in every city.