Finland and Sweden: Together To NATO, Applying In May?

davidjohnson6 · Sun May 08, 2022 7:27 am

alberchico wrote:
She doesn't realize that relations between Russia and Europe right now have been shattered with no chance of being repaired until Putin leaves power. Considering that Putin will make sure that his successor shares the same ideology and hard line attitudes that he has, I don't see relations improving for possibly decades. In fact, according to a recent poll, many Russians blame the West for the sanctions and flat out refuse to believe any stories of atrocities committed by Russian troops. She argues that any NATO expansion would plunge us into a new Cold War, but I would argue we're already in one right now.

Under Andropov, there was little hope of Soviet-US relations improving. In november 1983, during the Able Archer exercises, the USSR was convinced a nuclear war was about to start.
By the late 1980s, Gorbachev was in power, and relations with the US were rapidly improving

While Putin is in power, I agree relations with the West will be lousy. Once he's gone, things can change faster than one might initially imagine

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Thunderboltdrgn · Tue May 10, 2022 2:42 pm

UK prime minister Boris Johnson will visit Sweden at meet with the Swedish prime minister tomorrow. Boris will after that travel to Finland to meet the Finnish president.
Boris visit to Sweden is to sign an agreement about deepening the defence cooperation between Sweden and UK.

Bori's visit to Finland is According to the article says that they will talk about the war in Ukraine and the security situation in Europe

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/uppg ... e-i-morgon (article is in Swedish).

*edit found some English sources:

The Independent claims that it is Nato talk:

"Boris Johnson is to fly to Finland and Sweden to discuss the Nordic countries’ ambitions to apply for membership of Nato.
The visit will be seen as a red rag to Moscow, after Russian president Vladimir Putin used fears of an expanded Nato alliance as a justification for his invasion of Ukraine."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 75686.html

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will visit Finland on Wednesday, news agency STT reported on Tuesday afternoon.

The visit was later confirmed by the Office of the President of the Republic of Finland in a press release, adding that Johnson will meet Finland's President Sauli Niinistö for talks.

"In their meeting, President Niinistö and Prime Minister Johnson will discuss Ukraine and the security situation in Europe. Following their discussions, the President and
Prime Minister will hold a joint press conference," the press release stated.

https://yle.fi/news/3-12439424

The Local also mentions Nato talks and that the agreement is a security guarantee during a possible NATO application period (no formal descension had been made though)

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is coming to Sweden on Wednesday, Sweden's government has announced, with newspapers reporting he will sign
a defence deal aimed at protecting Sweden during the Nato transition period.

According to a press release issued by the Swedish government, Johnson will meet Sweden’s prime minister Magdalena Andersson at her official
country retreat at Harpsund, about 100km west of Stockholm.

The two will discuss the security situation in Europe and bilateral relations and cooperation between Sweden and the UK.
The two are due to hold a press conference early on Wednesday afternoon.

According to the newspaper, recent classified meetings of the Swedish parliament’s defence and foreign committees,
MPs have been told of secret bilateral cooperation with the UK.

https://www.thelocal.se/20220510/boris- ... wednesday/

FlapOperator · Tue May 10, 2022 5:46 pm

GDB wrote:
Looks like the momentum for Finland is unstoppable;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcyZRtLaWOw

That's riding on a greased sled, as they say where I'm from.

Finland has be a de facto Western military state for a decade or longer. The politicians and populations are simply catching up to reality.

skyservice_330 · Tue May 10, 2022 8:25 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
GDB wrote:
Looks like the momentum for Finland is unstoppable;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcyZRtLaWOw

That's riding on a greased sled, as they say where I'm from.

Finland has be a de facto Western military state for a decade or longer. The politicians and populations are simply catching up to reality.

I must admit, at the risk of making myself look uninformed, I had always just assumed Sweden and Finland were already members of NATO. It wasn't until the last few months, when I actually started paying more detailed attention to NATO politics etc., that I realized they weren't on the members list ... I had always just assumed that as two developed, western, countries on the northern part of the continent that they were members.

GDB · Wed May 11, 2022 12:32 am

Preparations for request for NATO admission, the UK Defence Minister has stated that the UK would directly aid Finland if attacked regardless of their NATO status at the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNBPdFqb6fY

davidjohnson6 · Wed May 11, 2022 4:34 am

GDB wrote:
Preparations for request for NATO admission, the UK Defence Minister has stated that the UK would directly aid Finland if attacked regardless of their NATO status at the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNBPdFqb6fY

Finland must have offered something substantial in return for a statement like this. I wonder what Finland gave the UK in return...

GDB · Wed May 11, 2022 7:31 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
GDB wrote:
Preparations for request for NATO admission, the UK Defence Minister has stated that the UK would directly aid Finland if attacked regardless of their NATO status at the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNBPdFqb6fY

Finland must have offered something substantial in return for a statement like this. I wonder what Finland gave the UK in return...

Or it was more likely a message to Russia, presumably on behalf of NATO or at least its members in Northern Europe/Baltic area.

sabenapilot · Wed May 11, 2022 9:55 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
GDB wrote:
Preparations for request for NATO admission, the UK Defence Minister has stated that the UK would directly aid Finland if attacked regardless of their NATO status at the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNBPdFqb6fY

Finland must have offered something substantial in return for a statement like this. I wonder what Finland gave the UK in return...

What is Ukraine offering the west in return for the billions in military aid it gets from NATO countries (and others)?

Sometimes, democratic countries just have to stand up for what is right and help defend eachothers vital interests, rather than quibble over ridiculous differences all the time; if not, they'll all be overrun one by one by rough countries where everybody somehow thinks, feels, and says exactly the same.

Thunderboltdrgn · Wed May 11, 2022 3:06 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
GDB wrote:
Preparations for request for NATO admission, the UK Defence Minister has stated that the UK would directly aid Finland if attacked regardless of their NATO status at the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNBPdFqb6fY

Finland must have offered something substantial in return for a statement like this. I wonder what Finland gave the UK in return...

It's for both Sweden and Finland. The British government writes about it on their website:

Prime Minister Boris Johnson visiting Sweden and Finland today to fortify European security

Nations to sign mutual security assurances with the UK to tackle traditional, hybrid and cyber threats

Security declarations will see a step-change in defence and security cooperation, including the sharing of new intelligence and joint military operations

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prim ... 1-may-2022

davidjohnson6 · Wed May 11, 2022 3:17 pm

Most EU states are militarily rather weak,especially when compared to Russia. In the EU, only France has nukes. The UK also has nukes. I'm wondering whether the UK is essentially trading its military capacity, in return for the EU taking a different approach on trade talks.

Not saying this definitely is happening... just that it's the kind of thing I could imagine happening

ReverseFlow · Wed May 11, 2022 3:33 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Most EU states are militarily rather weak,especially when compared to Russia. In the EU, only France has nukes. The UK also has nukes. I'm wondering whether the UK is essentially trading its military capacity, in return for the EU taking a different approach on trade talks.

Not saying this definitely is happening... just that it's the kind of thing I could imagine happening

That is the whole point of the EU (and to an extent NATO) - alone a country like Estonia would be insignificant on the grand scale of things.
But part of the EU and NATO it has clout.
You put in together what you can.

Together you are stronger. Or was it Strong Together.

FlapOperator · Wed May 11, 2022 3:49 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
That is the whole point of the EU (and to an extent NATO) - alone a country like Estonia would be insignificant on the grand scale of things.
But part of the EU and NATO it has clout.
You put in together what you can.

Together you are stronger. Or was it Strong Together.

Briefs well. Until your largest economy laughs at the idea of divesting itself of your prime adversary's major economic weapon.

Coalition warfare is really really hard, because among a thousand reasons, its really hard for outsiders to understand the shades of nuance in the politics of even small nations, let alone large ones.

Then you sovereignty issues, capability issues, procurement issues, and on and on and on.

So you have the EU really not really to be a military power, NATO suffering from decades of underinvestment and both result in the Europeans really far below their military capability when measured against population, economic power and total importance.

WestendRaider · Wed May 11, 2022 8:40 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
NATO suffering from decades of underinvestment and both result in the Europeans really far below their military capability when measured against population, economic power and total importance.

But when measured against the primary potential adversary, that money being spent elsewhere was probably a better investment.
If a few guys on an ATV and a Javelin can grind down a 100k army, the combined European army (even without the Americans) is probably a much superior conventional force compared to the Russians.

johns624 · Wed May 11, 2022 10:03 pm

WestendRaider wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:
NATO suffering from decades of underinvestment and both result in the Europeans really far below their military capability when measured against population, economic power and total importance.

But when measured against the primary potential adversary, that money being spent elsewhere was probably a better investment.
If a few guys on an ATV and a Javelin can grind down a 100k army, the combined European army (even without the Americans) is probably a much superior conventional force compared to the Russians.

While the Javelin/ATV stories make the news, there's actually a lot of industrial strength warfare going on.
ETA--another thing to remember is that you don't want a military strong enough to defend your country, you want a military strong enough so that no one attacks your country.

ReverseFlow · Thu May 12, 2022 4:28 am

johns624 wrote:
WestendRaider wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:
NATO suffering from decades of underinvestment and both result in the Europeans really far below their military capability when measured against population, economic power and total importance.

But when measured against the primary potential adversary, that money being spent elsewhere was probably a better investment.
If a few guys on an ATV and a Javelin can grind down a 100k army, the combined European army (even without the Americans) is probably a much superior conventional force compared to the Russians.
While the Javelin/ATV stories make the news, there's actually a lot of industrial strength warfare going on.
ETA--another thing to remember is that you don't want a military strong enough to defend your country, you want a military strong enough so that no one attacks your country.

And that us why the Baltics etc are in NATO.
They don't have an army strong enough to defend nor strong enough to deter. So with Article 5 they are.

In one of the vids above that was the reason a guy gave for Finland

ThePointblank · Thu May 12, 2022 8:21 am

Joint statement from Office of the President of Finland, and the Finnish Prime Minister on NATO membership:

https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-rel ... embership/

Joint statement by the President of the Republic and Prime Minister of Finland on Finland’s NATO membership

Office of the President of the Republic of Finland
Prime Minister’s Office
Press release 30/2022
12 May 2022

During this spring, an important discussion on Finland’s possible NATO membership has taken place. Time has been needed to let Parliament and the whole society establish their stands on the matter. Time has been needed for close international contacts with NATO and its member countries, as well as with Sweden. We have wanted to give the discussion the space it required.

Now that the moment of decision-making is near, we state our equal views, also for information to the parliamentary groups and parties. NATO membership would strengthen Finland’s security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance. Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay. We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days.

Sauli Niinistö
President of the Republic of Finland

Sanna Marin
Prime Minister of Finland

cpd · Thu May 12, 2022 10:09 am

Well done Finland and to all those involved in teaching this decision. It’s the right one.

davidjohnson6 · Thu May 12, 2022 10:37 am

cpd wrote:
Well done Finland and to all those involved in teaching this decision. It’s the right one.

There is still a significant minority of the Finnish population who are against NATO membership - their opinions should be respected. This is a big deal for Finland - one should not underestimate its significance.

We can only decide what seems to be the right thing to do. History will decide what was the right thing to... and history won't reveal the answer for many years. The world is grey... not black and white

Disclaimer - I write this as a UK citizen who is pro NATO

ReverseFlow · Thu May 12, 2022 11:29 am

cpd wrote:
Well done Finland and to all those involved in teaching this decision. It’s the right one.

If you read it carefully it is only the President and Prime Minister giving their opinion.
The parliament will still have to agree/ratify it (which shouldn't be a hurdle).

ReverseFlow · Thu May 12, 2022 11:30 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
cpd wrote:
Well done Finland and to all those involved in teaching this decision. It’s the right one.

There is still a significant minority of the Finnish population who are against NATO membership - their opinions should be respected. This is a big deal for Finland - one should not underestimate its significance.

We can only decide what seems to be the right thing to do. History will decide what was the right thing to... and history won't reveal the answer for many years. The world is grey... not black and white

Disclaimer - I write this as a UK citizen who is pro NATO

There was (and still is) a significant minority against Brexit, too.
Alas, democracy is the dictatorship of the many.

Aesma · Thu May 12, 2022 12:27 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Most EU states are militarily rather weak,especially when compared to Russia. In the EU, only France has nukes. The UK also has nukes. I'm wondering whether the UK is essentially trading its military capacity, in return for the EU taking a different approach on trade talks.

Not saying this definitely is happening... just that it's the kind of thing I could imagine happening

What trade talks ? They have long ended. EU countries are applying the signed treaty, while the UK is having trouble (or is not even trying) applying it.

FlapOperator · Thu May 12, 2022 1:24 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:

And that us why the Baltics etc are in NATO.
They don't have an army strong enough to defend nor strong enough to deter. So with Article 5 they are.

In one of the vids above that was the reason a guy gave for Finland

Well, that was undergirded by the Stimson Declaration, which had held since 1940 that the incorporation of the Baltic states into the USSR was not recognized by the US government.

It was one reason we gave the Russians for why we included the Balts into NATO, and interestingly enough, one that many Russian strategists have implicitly accepted.

LCDFlight · Thu May 12, 2022 1:44 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
alberchico wrote:
She doesn't realize that relations between Russia and Europe right now have been shattered with no chance of being repaired until Putin leaves power. Considering that Putin will make sure that his successor shares the same ideology and hard line attitudes that he has, I don't see relations improving for possibly decades. In fact, according to a recent poll, many Russians blame the West for the sanctions and flat out refuse to believe any stories of atrocities committed by Russian troops. She argues that any NATO expansion would plunge us into a new Cold War, but I would argue we're already in one right now.

Under Andropov, there was little hope of Soviet-US relations improving. In november 1983, during the Able Archer exercises, the USSR was convinced a nuclear war was about to start.
By the late 1980s, Gorbachev was in power, and relations with the US were rapidly improving

While Putin is in power, I agree relations with the West will be lousy. Once he's gone, things can change faster than one might initially imagine

Things have changed. The relative strength and economy of Russia vs Europe has gone down since 1990.

Europe will not want to give Russia the strategic position where they can invade Europe again. IMO, that's over. The border with Russia will be militarized. Russia took advantage of the West's good faith, and perhaps vice versa. No more. Good fences make good neighbors. Any Russian soldier who crosses that border without permission will die.

B777LRF · Thu May 12, 2022 3:54 pm

On the topic of strength, and assuming a confrontation won’t go nuclear, my money on a Sweden+Finland vs Russia is firmly on the former side.

Should Russia be foolish enough to cross the border with Finland, the combined Swedish/Finnish forces would probably be knocking at the gates of Murmansk 14 days later, leaving behind them a totally obliterated Russian invasion force. Events in Ukraine has taught us that Russia is the quintessential paper tiger, who only commands a bit of military respect due to their nuclear capabilities. Take that away and they’re a military nothing burger; all saddle and no horse.

davidjohnson6 · Thu May 12, 2022 4:11 pm

B777LRF wrote:
On the topic of strength, and assuming a confrontation won’t go nuclear, my money on a Sweden+Finland vs Russia is firmly on the former side.

Should Russia be foolish enough to cross the border with Finland, the combined Swedish/Finnish forces would probably be knocking at the gates of Murmansk 14 days later, leaving behind them a totally obliterated Russian invasion force. Events in Ukraine has taught us that Russia is the quintessential paper tiger, who only commands a bit of military respect due to their nuclear capabilities. Take that away and they’re a military nothing burger; all saddle and no horse.

I am not sure what would happen in a Nordic countries v Russia conflict. I do know that Sweden or Finland would be extremely foolish to march on Murmansk. The Russian military is likely to adopt very different tactics to what you are seeing now, if another country were to invade Russia and threaten one of their primary naval bases

GDB · Thu May 12, 2022 7:20 pm

Discussion on Finland and what they, as well as hopefully Sweden, will bring to NATO, after a mention of Russian incompetence with the bridge crossing;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pI3aYCK_rfE

MareBorealis · Thu May 12, 2022 8:35 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
cpd wrote:
Well done Finland and to all those involved in teaching this decision. It’s the right one.

There is still a significant minority of the Finnish population who are against NATO membership - their opinions should be respected. This is a big deal for Finland - one should not underestimate its significance.

We can only decide what seems to be the right thing to do. History will decide what was the right thing to... and history won't reveal the answer for many years. The world is grey... not black and white

Disclaimer - I write this as a UK citizen who is pro NATO

It's a smallish minority against the NATO membership in Finland. The poll published on May 9, by YLE the National Broadcastig Company:

"Should Finland join the Nato military alliance"

YES 76%
NO 12%
DON'T KNOW 11%

https://yle.fi/news/3-12437506

scbriml · Fri May 13, 2022 1:17 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
There is still a significant minority of the Finnish population who are against NATO membership - their opinions should be respected.

In a binary decision, how on Earth do you "respect the opinion of the minority"? The only way you can respect the opinion of the minority is by ignoring the opinion of the majority! The UK's Brexit vote was very close, how was the opinion of the minority respected?

Besides that, the figures I've seen don't suggest a "significant minority" at all.

scbriml · Fri May 13, 2022 1:23 am

In a move that will surprise nobody, Russia again warns Finland against joining NATO.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61420185

Russia has said it will be forced to take "retaliatory steps" over its neighbour Finland's move to join Nato. A foreign ministry statement said the move would seriously damage bilateral relations, as well as security and stability in northern Europe.
...
Speaking to journalists later, Mr Niinisto responded to Russian concerns and blamed the move on Moscow's invasion. "Joining Nato would not be against anyone. You caused this. Look in the mirror," he said.

cpd · Fri May 13, 2022 3:49 am

scbriml wrote:
In a move that will surprise nobody, Russia again warns Finland against joining NATO.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61420185
Russia has said it will be forced to take "retaliatory steps" over its neighbour Finland's move to join Nato. A foreign ministry statement said the move would seriously damage bilateral relations, as well as security and stability in northern Europe.
...
Speaking to journalists later, Mr Niinisto responded to Russian concerns and blamed the move on Moscow's invasion. "Joining Nato would not be against anyone. You caused this. Look in the mirror," he said.

The President said exactly what I would have done.

johns624 · Fri May 13, 2022 2:42 pm

Turkey is causing problems because of Nordic countries' support of the Kurds.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/tu ... f6cb5d4613

alberchico · Fri May 13, 2022 2:48 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/15 ... 1300331521

I wonder how serious their veto threat is ?

ReverseFlow · Fri May 13, 2022 3:30 pm

a) He's angling for concessions
or
b) He's in Putins pocket

I hope it's a)

GDB · Fri May 13, 2022 3:54 pm

johns624 wrote:
Turkey is causing problems because of Nordic countries' support of the Kurds.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/tu ... f6cb5d4613

Turkey's main problem is that their goat bothering leader has trashed the economy, I would quote the current inflation rate but fear it would be out of date before I posted!

Vintage · Fri May 13, 2022 4:30 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
a) He's angling for concessions
or
b) He's in Putins pocket

I hope it's a)

It doesn't seem that he's in Putin's pocket while he's shipping so many Bayraktar drones to Ukraine.

GDB · Fri May 13, 2022 7:29 pm

Vintage wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
a) He's angling for concessions
or
b) He's in Putins pocket

I hope it's a)

It doesn't seem that he's in Putin's pocket while he's shipping so many Bayraktar drones to Ukraine.

Balanced against getting a product of an Industry they have invested in, world famous, with obvious export implications.
Not like they don’t need the cash.

oldJoe · Fri May 13, 2022 9:07 pm

GDB wrote:
Vintage wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
a) He's angling for concessions
or
b) He's in Putins pocket

I hope it's a)

It doesn't seem that he's in Putin's pocket while he's shipping so many Bayraktar drones to Ukraine.

Balanced against getting a product of an Industry they have invested in, world famous, with obvious export implications.
Not like they don’t need the cash.

The cash is urgently needed to pay for the ordered S-400 system and to guarantee Russian tourists a safe vacation in Turkey

AeroVega · Sat May 14, 2022 10:26 am

ReverseFlow wrote:
a) He's angling for concessions
or
b) He's in Putins pocket

I hope it's a)

There are many Turks living all over Europe, including Finland and Sweden. And Turkey makes a lot of money from European tourists, including from Finland and Sweden. And perhaps Finland and Sweden can be interested in buying those Turkish drones once they are in NATO. Turkey has a lot to lose if they block Finland and Sweden from joining NATO.

Thunderboltdrgn · Sun May 15, 2022 8:44 am

According to Swedish television and SVD newspaper Sweden will submit the application to join NATO on Tuesday next week (17 May).
Swedish Socialdemocratic party (which are leading the government) will hold a press conference at 18.00 CEST today to announce their stance regarding NATO.

https://www.svd.se/a/qWlAzo/svd-erfar-s ... -pa-tisdag

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/finl ... natobesked

I would assume that Sweden and Finland will synchronise and submit NATO applications together/at the same time.

Thunderboltdrgn · Sun May 15, 2022 3:23 pm

The Swedish Social democratic party have sent out a press release in which the say that they support a Swedish NATO membership.
There will also be a press conference at 18.00 (35 minutes from now). This means that there is a clear majority in the parliament for a NATO membership.

Socialdemokraternas partistyrelse har på sitt möte i dag den 15 maj 2022 beslutat att partiet ska verka för att Sverige ska ansöka om medlemskap i Nato.
Socialdemokraterna ska därmed verka för att Sverige, om ansökan godkänns av Nato, uttalar unilaterala förbehåll mot utplacering av kärnvapen och permanenta
baser på svenskt territorium.

https://www.socialdemokraterna.se/nyhet ... iska-linje
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/finl ... natobesked

par13del · Sun May 15, 2022 5:58 pm

Do either of them believe that they will be able to get unanimous support, especially from Hungary and Turkey?
I am certain that they will get much closer military integration, but Article 5 protection, no, but politically on the home front, the politicians will be secure that they followed the national concern and did all they could to satisfy those concerns.

Thunderboltdrgn · Sun May 15, 2022 6:39 pm

par13del wrote:
Do either of them believe that they will be able to get unanimous support, especially from Hungary and Turkey?
I am certain that they will get much closer military integration, but Article 5 protection, no, but politically on the home front, the politicians will be secure that they followed the national concern and did all they could to satisfy those concerns.

I'd say yes they do and yes they will, especially when nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg says that Turkey won't block Sweden and Finland.

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/stolte ... medlemskap

einsteinboricua · Mon May 16, 2022 12:45 am

par13del wrote:
Do either of them believe that they will be able to get unanimous support, especially from Hungary and Turkey?

What concerns has Hungary brought forth that will threaten Sweden and Finland's application? Turkey at least has something on the table (both countries' support of PKK which Turkey considers a terrorist organization), but both countries seem to be pacifying those concerns since Turkey hasn't announced outright a veto.

If all Hungary has going for it is being in Putin's good graces, it's likely pointless since Hungary is mostly landlocked from Russia (only non EU-member borders are Ukraine (which won't support Russian trade into the EU) and Serbia (which is landlocked and would have to rely on other countries for maritime trade or would have to take the long way round for flights)).

11Bravo · Mon May 16, 2022 1:08 am

par13del wrote:
Do either of them believe that they will be able to get unanimous support, especially from Hungary and Turkey?
I am certain that they will get much closer military integration, but Article 5 protection, no, but politically on the home front, the politicians will be secure that they followed the national concern and did all they could to satisfy those concerns.

I believe you are over-estimating the ability of Hungary and/or Turkey to disrupt this process. I believe they will stay in their lane and "allow" Finland and Sweden to join. They may feel conflicted, but I doubt they will jeopardize their relationships with the rest of NATO and the EU to please Putin. That would be a very bad move. Challenging Finland and Sweden here is all cost and no benefit.

THS214 · Mon May 16, 2022 4:26 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
cpd wrote:
Well done Finland and to all those involved in teaching this decision. It’s the right one.

There is still a significant minority of the Finnish population who are against NATO membership - their opinions should be respected. This is a big deal for Finland - one should not underestimate its significance.

We can only decide what seems to be the right thing to do. History will decide what was the right thing to... and history won't reveal the answer for many years. The world is grey... not black and white

Disclaimer - I write this as a UK citizen who is pro NATO

In Finland 76% support Nato membership and 12% are against it. Sorry link only in Finnish https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/f ... f101f0865a

MareBorealis · Mon May 16, 2022 7:32 am

THS214 wrote:
davidjohnson6 wrote:
cpd wrote:
Well done Finland and to all those involved in teaching this decision. It’s the right one.

There is still a significant minority of the Finnish population who are against NATO membership - their opinions should be respected. This is a big deal for Finland - one should not underestimate its significance.

We can only decide what seems to be the right thing to do. History will decide what was the right thing to... and history won't reveal the answer for many years. The world is grey... not black and white

Disclaimer - I write this as a UK citizen who is pro NATO

In Finland 76% support Nato membership and 12% are against it. Sorry link only in Finnish https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/f ... f101f0865a

Here's the original poll in English, YLE National Broadcasting Company:

https://yle.fi/news/3-12437506

M564038 · Mon May 16, 2022 1:56 pm

«Application will be sent today, tomorrow or wednesday».
Swedish government formally vote to apply for NATO membership.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Wj ... ristersson

As a norwegian I think it is wonderfull that the nordics will be united in the same defence coallition. It was the dream of the Norwegians and Swedes after WWII to formally unite the defence strategy against the Soviets.

There is a wonderful story in the biography of Jens-Christian Hauge, WWII hero and then defence minister of travelling at night, incognito with sunglasses and hats pulled down in a borrowed car together with Prime minister Gerhardsen in 1946/47 to Stockholm to negotiate a defence deal with their swedish collegaues.
Immidiate threats were seen as coming and Norway hastily joined NATO, leaving Sweden to continue their costly neutrality politics.

Old Gerhardsen would have been proud of NATO General secretary Jens Stoltenberg, one of his party’s successors as norwegian prime minister, for his role in finally uniting with the swedes on this issue;-)

davidjohnson6 · Mon May 16, 2022 2:13 pm

Taking a different viewpoint.... I hope we are not making the same mistakes that led to the war of 1914-1918 - namely 2 rival groupings of countries in Europe that were just waiting for the tiniest spark for the flames to erupt

johns624 · Mon May 16, 2022 2:18 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Taking a different viewpoint.... I hope we are not making the same mistakes that led to the war of 1914-1918 - namely 2 rival groupings of countries in Europe that were just waiting for the tiniest spark for the flames to erupt

I doubt it. NATO isn't going to attack anyone and even Russia knows they are toothless against NATO.

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