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Dutchy
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Election results Northern Ireland

Sat May 07, 2022 9:06 pm

NI election results 2022: Sinn Féin wins most seats in historic election

Sinn Féin will be the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly for the first time, pushing the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) into second place.

Sinn Féin has 27 seats, compared to the DUP's current tally of 24.

The result means Michelle O'Neill will be entitled to become first minister - unprecedented for a nationalist.

Earlier, Ms O'Neill said it had been an election of "real change" and a "defining moment for our politics and for our people".


Source BBC

DUP has lost its claim for the first minister. Sinn Féin will be the largest party, but probably will not call for a referendum to unite Ireland just yet. Clearly, the DUP has lost this election.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Election results Northern Ireland

Sun May 08, 2022 4:03 am

Perhaps a mix of demographic changes (younger, more Catholic), border, trade and other issues between Northern Ireland and The Republic of Ireland from the vote on exit from the EU that NI didn't support, the truce of over 20 years from 'the troubles', are causing a shift to consider NI to split from the UK and become part of ROI are factors in the shift of party power in this election. I wonder if NI will try to seek more autonomy from the UK in relations with the ROI, including border issues, trade, even limited relations with the EU. The 100th anniversary date of ROI independence is soon. Perhaps the dream of ROI's founders will come true.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Election results Northern Ireland

Sun May 08, 2022 9:13 pm

DUP with their hardline stand of the northern ireland protocol didn't help their efforts, probably. Don't think Sinn Féin will seek a referendum for joining the ROI in this term. They probably want a more social agenda on which they campained.
 
Arion640
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Re: Election results Northern Ireland

Mon May 09, 2022 9:21 am

Dutchy wrote:
DUP with their hardline stand of the northern ireland protocol didn't help their efforts, probably. Don't think Sinn Féin will seek a referendum for joining the ROI in this term. They probably want a more social agenda on which they campained.


I would assume the Northern Ireland legislature would have to vote on a bill to pass a referendum.

It would not pass as there are currently two more unionists than republicans despite SF being the largest party.

Little has changed really. The office of first minister is equal with deputy first minister. They can’t vote it through.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Election results Northern Ireland

Mon May 09, 2022 10:03 am

ltbewr wrote:
The 100th anniversary date of ROI independence is soon. Perhaps the dream of ROI's founders will come true.

I would think maybe the 200th anniversary, or 2122, would be more likely, if at all. A recent University of Liverpool poll showed support for a united Ireland in the province as low as 30 per cent. And, of course, it's not just the North who decides the matter: there would also have to be a poll here in the Republic, and while two thirds of the population usually support the idea of a reunification, that drops to just over twenty per cent when the respondents are asked if they are willing to pay for it. The election result showed was interesting, with the increased support for the non-aligned Alliance. The NI demographic seems to be drifting away from the traditional green/orange divide, with up to 42 per cent of the population now identifying as neither nationalist or unionist. I believe the sensible future for Northern Ireland lies as a self-governing part of a federal Ireland. It's not what unionists or republicans would prefer, but both could live with it, given that nationalists wouldn't be subjects of the British crown, and unionists wouldn't be dragged kicking and screaming into a united Ireland.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics ... d-ireland/

Arion640 wrote:
I would assume the Northern Ireland legislature would have to vote on a bill to pass a referendum.

That remains the sole perogative of the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, so I don't see much of a chance of that happening for a long, long time.
https://constitution-unit.com/2020/02/0 ... essential/
 
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Aesma
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Re: Election results Northern Ireland

Mon May 09, 2022 10:49 am

They can't self govern now so I don't see how that could work.

Something that will matter a lot is if the protocol continues and is beneficial, and if the UK recovers economically and continues to subsidize NI.

Polls are one thing but it should be quite easy for politicians in ROI to have a large majority in favor of reunification, and there is the EU to help pay for it.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Election results Northern Ireland

Mon May 09, 2022 11:18 am

Aesma wrote:
They can't self govern now so I don't see how that could work.

Something that will matter a lot is if the protocol continues and is beneficial, and if the UK recovers economically and continues to subsidize NI.

Polls are one thing but it should be quite easy for politicians in ROI to have a large majority in favor of reunification, and there is the EU to help pay for it.

They can govern if they have to. The DUP lost votes because of its pulling out of Assembly and its intrangence over the NI protocol, and, of course, its dogged support for Brexit, which the majority of the people in the North didn't vote for. Abstaining from governing is never popular and is a sure-fire vote-loser and they all know that. And, of course, Sinn Féin can't really complain about the DUP abstaining from government when they have refused to take their seats in Westminister for decades.

It's all very well for politicians in the Republic to campaign for reunification, but support for reunification is mainly aspirational. When the hard reality of the downsides become apparent to the electorate they would scare a lot of people away. And I'm not talking about financial issues: the social divide would not disappear in any united Ireland. All you would be doing is transferring the problems of the North to the whole island. And any reunification poll would undoubtedly be preceded by unrest, or violence. Once that spills down into the Republic you can wave goodbye to any chance of a poll succeeding.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/republic ... e-2307949/
 
Arion640
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Re: Election results Northern Ireland

Mon May 09, 2022 12:18 pm

We as the UK need closer alignment with the EU to solve the protocol.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Election results Northern Ireland

Mon May 09, 2022 12:48 pm

Arion640 wrote:
We as the UK need closer alignment with the EU to solve the protocol.


DUP in Westminster are still screaming for the protocol to be scrapped (as they have since the deal was made) with no viable method of replacing it. The Tories (Rabb again this morning) said they want to do the same so I don't see any closer alignment until the next election where I hope (and the numbers look positive) that Labour will win and do exactly that. If they try and scrap the protocal things will only get severely worse for N Ireland (and UK). It blows my mind that they still babble on about this stuff with any clue of the consequences. It is no doubt a rubbish deal, but it's better than not having no deal.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Election results Northern Ireland

Mon May 09, 2022 12:56 pm

Arion640 wrote:
We as the UK need closer alignment with the EU to solve the protocol.


That would solve the need for the protocol itself. But in the current political climate, I don't see that happening.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Election results Northern Ireland

Mon May 09, 2022 12:59 pm

Aesma wrote:
They can't self govern now so I don't see how that could work.

Something that will matter a lot is if the protocol continues and is beneficial, and if the UK recovers economically and continues to subsidize NI.

Polls are one thing but it should be quite easy for politicians in ROI to have a large majority in favor of reunification, and there is the EU to help pay for it.


The EU didn't pay for German reunification so why on earth should they pay for Irish reunification? German reunification has cost about 2T EUR, a until Ireland has a bit under 10% of Germanys population, so somewhere in the 200B EUR to reunify, that's a shit ton on money, can Ireland afford it and why should the EU pay?

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