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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 5:28 am

NIKV69 wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
You obviously aren't familiar with the successful HSR services between DC, New York, and Boston.

:roll:




That is because the Acela isn't real HSR what is their average speed? 80? China much faster.

So you think Acela being slow and successful indicate faster service wouldn't success? Acela are already charging prenium price on par with high speed rail service in other countries.
 
pune
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 8:23 am

Aaron747 wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:
seb146 wrote:

Americans, and to some extent Canadians, have been so indoctrinated with this fantasy that cares and airplanes are the only travel options. We have been told for decades that trains are slow and unreliable all while watching EU, Japan, and China build high speed networks in addition to air and roads. We are told we don't want trains, this is a reason why there is little to no interest in HSR.


Because, surprisingly enough, the geography of North America is different than the EU, Japan and China. The regulatory, environmental impact and labor circumstances aren't the same.

What's the point of a once or twice a day HST between select city pairs in the absence of public transportation or small cities when you get there? What could 100 billion dollars bought in that regard?

Even where great train infrastructure exists, we've seen the rise of LCCs in the EU, Japan and China. Why? Because people there value their time as well.

In the meantime, the money spent so far on the California HST could have bought Spirit Airlines outright and operated it for free for decade. Right now, we are talking 100 billion USD. For a "HST" going 110mph/180kph over a major part of it that connects two major cities in California.


The geography is different, yes, but certain city pairs in the US mirror the extended MSA/megalopolis chains that exist in Germany, Italy, Japan etc. And particularly with regard to the US southeast and northeast, there are similarities to Japan regarding time savings to access a major rail terminus versus getting to airport/security/waiting etc. The latter time savings are precisely why Chinese and Japanese HSR users continue to pay ticket premiums for that service even where LCC may be available/cheaper.

In Japan’s case, LCCs has become popular because disposable income is too low for many younger professionals to use HSR regularly and airports with stagnant traffic growth have thrown incentives at domestic LCCs.


It actually makes more sense to put infrastructure in LCCs and Airport development rather than HSR as infrastructure is needed only for Airports, Instead of Rail you have air which has no maintenance costs AFAIK. The plane sure has but then that can be equated to the train itself.

Not just in Japan, but even in China, the majority of mass moves through LCC. That is the reason the Chinese have been building their own commercial plane, One is they get access to the better and latest technology, a lot of which can be dual-used for military applications. The only thing that I have not been hearing from China is while they are all hell-bent on e-mobility for cars and whatnot, for air travel not so much, although there are around 100 odd companies/startups around the world who are attempting to both take up on electronic batteries, air travel, and VTOL. Once that is done, the economics will be more in favor of LCC. Even somewhat conventional airplanes are going to make the sector hotter if they are able to realize their plans.

https://simpleflying.com/could-a-supers ... -airliner/
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1915
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 1:22 pm

California HSR is (yet another) example that actual transportation professionals are being completely misused and deliberately misunderstood, in order to pursue a political fantasy. California HSR is a sick joke and a tragedy. IMO, it proves that government must be sharply reduced in size.

Meanwhile, actual skilled transport professionals remain involved in the road network and aviation network. No credit, no glory.

Passenger railroad is an 1800s technology that acts as a spiritual talisman for greedy politicians and fanatics. The numbers on California HSR were always horribly awful, and yet, still represented a fraudulent under-estimate of the true costs. The operational benefits ("high speed") were also fraudulent. There is no benefit. But people don't care. It's a cult.
 
Redd
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 2:02 pm

China has built about 38,000km of high speed rail, in about the same time since California first got approval to start construction back in 2008. California is the world's 3rd largest economy, what's the problem here?
 
johns624
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 2:37 pm

Redd wrote:
China has built about 38,000km of high speed rail, in about the same time since California first got approval to start construction back in 2008. California is the world's 3rd largest economy, what's the problem here?
I doubt that China cares about Environmental Impact Studies or the niceties of obtaining the land for the project.
 
FGITD
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 2:48 pm

johns624 wrote:
Redd wrote:
China has built about 38,000km of high speed rail, in about the same time since California first got approval to start construction back in 2008. California is the world's 3rd largest economy, what's the problem here?
I doubt that China cares about Environmental Impact Studies or the niceties of obtaining the land for the project.


They also have very little concern with profit. Allegedly they’re losing a fortune on those lines every minute they operate.

Granted that never ending desire for profits can be a problem in itself, but as seen many times, once the losses stack up things like maintenance suffer
 
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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 2:52 pm

Redd wrote:
China has built about 38,000km of high speed rail, in about the same time since California first got approval to start construction back in 2008. California is the world's 3rd largest economy, what's the problem here?

China invested 100 Billion USD into constructing HSR each and every years. While California is thinking about whether it is worth to invest 100 Billion USD in total into linking its two most important cities.

LCDFlight wrote:
California HSR is (yet another) example that actual transportation professionals are being completely misused and deliberately misunderstood, in order to pursue a political fantasy. California HSR is a sick joke and a tragedy. IMO, it proves that government must be sharply reduced in size.

Meanwhile, actual skilled transport professionals remain involved in the road network and aviation network. No credit, no glory.

Passenger railroad is an 1800s technology that acts as a spiritual talisman for greedy politicians and fanatics. The numbers on California HSR were always horribly awful, and yet, still represented a fraudulent under-estimate of the true costs. The operational benefits ("high speed") were also fraudulent. There is no benefit. But people don't care. It's a cult.

Treating high speed rail as like the rail from before the onset of passenger road vehicles and commercial aviation is exactly what's wrong with American mindset of HSR construction. No matter supporters or oppositions. Yes that's indeed a reason behind California HSR's management failure and delays.

pune wrote:
It actually makes more sense to put infrastructure in LCCs and Airport development rather than HSR as infrastructure is needed only for Airports, Instead of Rail you have air which has no maintenance costs AFAIK. The plane sure has but then that can be equated to the train itself.

ATC have no maintenance cost? Upgrading ATC systems to deal with the ever increasing number of passengers and number of departure flight is free?
Not just in Japan, but even in China, the majority of mass moves through LCC.

What are you saying?
As of year 2019, Japanese domwstic LCCs carried 10 million people a year. Full service carriers carried 92 million people domestically that year.

Meanwhile, Shinkansen carried 1.1 million passengers a day. That mean 400 million passengers a year.

How is the "mass" using LCC when they are just 10 million comoares to 400 million on HSR?

----

Likewise for China. China air sector (regardless of LCC or not or domestic or otherwise) transported 660 million people in total in year 2019. Meanwhile China High speed rail transported 6.5 million passengers a day that year, aka 2 billion people a year. Tell me how 660 million is the mass compared to 2 billion.
That is the reason the Chinese have been building their own commercial plane, One is they get access to the better and latest technology, a lot of which can be dual-used for military applications.

Did you missed the news in which China is now constructing the high speed rail from Sichuan to Tibet with military application in mind?
The only thing that I have not been hearing from China is while they are all hell-bent on e-mobility for cars and whatnot, for air travel not so much, although there are around 100 odd companies/startups around the world who are attempting to both take up on electronic batteries, air travel, and VTOL. Once that is done, the economics will be more in favor of LCC. Even somewhat conventional airplanes are going to make the sector hotter if they are able to realize their plans.

https://simpleflying.com/could-a-supers ... -airliner/

VTOL, and supersonic air travel, aren't going to beat the efficiency of conventional aircraft, and thus LCCs aren't going to switch over. They will occupy a more premium niche instead of the mass market.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 3:32 pm

c933103 wrote:
Redd wrote:
China has built about 38,000km of high speed rail, in about the same time since California first got approval to start construction back in 2008. California is the world's 3rd largest economy, what's the problem here?

China invested 100 Billion USD into constructing HSR each and every years. While California is thinking about whether it is worth to invest 100 Billion USD in total into linking its two most important cities.

LCDFlight wrote:
California HSR is (yet another) example that actual transportation professionals are being completely misused and deliberately misunderstood, in order to pursue a political fantasy. California HSR is a sick joke and a tragedy. IMO, it proves that government must be sharply reduced in size.

Meanwhile, actual skilled transport professionals remain involved in the road network and aviation network. No credit, no glory.

Passenger railroad is an 1800s technology that acts as a spiritual talisman for greedy politicians and fanatics. The numbers on California HSR were always horribly awful, and yet, still represented a fraudulent under-estimate of the true costs. The operational benefits ("high speed") were also fraudulent. There is no benefit. But people don't care. It's a cult.

Treating high speed rail as like the rail from before the onset of passenger road vehicles and commercial aviation is exactly what's wrong with American mindset of HSR construction. No matter supporters or oppositions. Yes that's indeed a reason behind California HSR's management failure and delays.


It's not American mindset... it is the American reality of so-called "HSR" projects. We are too far in our development, including legal development, to build new rail networks. We also do not have the population density of China.

In 1875, yes... the US could, and did, develop extensive rail networks.

I have ridden China HSR by the way. It was cool, enjoyed it. And here in the US, I enjoy our version, which has wings.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 3:38 pm

pune wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:

Because, surprisingly enough, the geography of North America is different than the EU, Japan and China. The regulatory, environmental impact and labor circumstances aren't the same.

What's the point of a once or twice a day HST between select city pairs in the absence of public transportation or small cities when you get there? What could 100 billion dollars bought in that regard?

Even where great train infrastructure exists, we've seen the rise of LCCs in the EU, Japan and China. Why? Because people there value their time as well.

In the meantime, the money spent so far on the California HST could have bought Spirit Airlines outright and operated it for free for decade. Right now, we are talking 100 billion USD. For a "HST" going 110mph/180kph over a major part of it that connects two major cities in California.


The geography is different, yes, but certain city pairs in the US mirror the extended MSA/megalopolis chains that exist in Germany, Italy, Japan etc. And particularly with regard to the US southeast and northeast, there are similarities to Japan regarding time savings to access a major rail terminus versus getting to airport/security/waiting etc. The latter time savings are precisely why Chinese and Japanese HSR users continue to pay ticket premiums for that service even where LCC may be available/cheaper.

In Japan’s case, LCCs has become popular because disposable income is too low for many younger professionals to use HSR regularly and airports with stagnant traffic growth have thrown incentives at domestic LCCs.


It actually makes more sense to put infrastructure in LCCs and Airport development rather than HSR as infrastructure is needed only for Airports, Instead of Rail you have air which has no maintenance costs AFAIK. The plane sure has but then that can be equated to the train itself.

Not just in Japan, but even in China, the majority of mass moves through LCC. That is the reason the Chinese have been building their own commercial plane, One is they get access to the better and latest technology, a lot of which can be dual-used for military applications. The only thing that I have not been hearing from China is while they are all hell-bent on e-mobility for cars and whatnot, for air travel not so much, although there are around 100 odd companies/startups around the world who are attempting to both take up on electronic batteries, air travel, and VTOL. Once that is done, the economics will be more in favor of LCC. Even somewhat conventional airplanes are going to make the sector hotter if they are able to realize their plans.

https://simpleflying.com/could-a-supers ... -airliner/


What in the WORLD are you talking about dude? The masses of Japan and China move mostly via LCC? There are 20 MILLION train passengers daily in metro Tokyo alone.

Try visiting places before speaking professorially about them.
 
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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 4:06 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Redd wrote:
China has built about 38,000km of high speed rail, in about the same time since California first got approval to start construction back in 2008. California is the world's 3rd largest economy, what's the problem here?

China invested 100 Billion USD into constructing HSR each and every years. While California is thinking about whether it is worth to invest 100 Billion USD in total into linking its two most important cities.

LCDFlight wrote:
California HSR is (yet another) example that actual transportation professionals are being completely misused and deliberately misunderstood, in order to pursue a political fantasy. California HSR is a sick joke and a tragedy. IMO, it proves that government must be sharply reduced in size.

Meanwhile, actual skilled transport professionals remain involved in the road network and aviation network. No credit, no glory.

Passenger railroad is an 1800s technology that acts as a spiritual talisman for greedy politicians and fanatics. The numbers on California HSR were always horribly awful, and yet, still represented a fraudulent under-estimate of the true costs. The operational benefits ("high speed") were also fraudulent. There is no benefit. But people don't care. It's a cult.

Treating high speed rail as like the rail from before the onset of passenger road vehicles and commercial aviation is exactly what's wrong with American mindset of HSR construction. No matter supporters or oppositions. Yes that's indeed a reason behind California HSR's management failure and delays.


It's not American mindset... it is the American reality of so-called "HSR" projects. We are too far in our development, including legal development, to build new rail networks. We also do not have the population density of China.

In 1875, yes... the US could, and did, develop extensive rail networks.

I have ridden China HSR by the way. It was cool, enjoyed it. And here in the US, I enjoy our version, which has wings.

America can still build new roads nowadays with no problem. Rails are just the same.
 
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seb146
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 12, 2022 6:03 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
seb146 wrote:

Americans, and to some extent Canadians, have been so indoctrinated with this fantasy that cares and airplanes are the only travel options. We have been told for decades that trains are slow and unreliable all while watching EU, Japan, and China build high speed networks in addition to air and roads. We are told we don't want trains, this is a reason why there is little to no interest in HSR.


There is little interest because we don't benefit from it. We have low cost airlines that serve the routes better and cheaper or the same price.


For long distance travel around the country, LCC makes sense. But for short hops, they do not. Someone else mentioned "why build rail when there is nothing connecting the station in small towns" or something similar and that is actually a good point against airports. Many smaller airports do not have infrastructure to connect the airport with the town it serves. MFR has one bus line that runs until 7PM Monday to Friday and 6PM weekends. So, if you are on a late flight, pack light and stretch out those hammies! Same with EUG and RDM and PSC. Oh, sure, there are taxis and ride share in most places but those are expensive.

Arguments for and against can be made for both air travel and HSR. The biggest difference with HSR is they can serve suburban stops.
 
pune
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 12:24 am

seb146 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
seb146 wrote:

Americans, and to some extent Canadians, have been so indoctrinated with this fantasy that cares and airplanes are the only travel options. We have been told for decades that trains are slow and unreliable all while watching the EU, Japan, and China build high-speed networks in addition to air and roads. We are told we don't want trains, this is a reason why there is little to no interest in HSR.


There is little interest because we don't benefit from it. We have low-cost airlines that serve the routes better and cheaper or the same price.


For long-distance travel around the country, LCC makes sense. But for short hops, they do not. Someone else mentioned, "why build rail when there is nothing connecting the station in small towns" or something similar and that is actually a good point against airports. Many smaller airports do not have the infrastructure to connect the airport with the town it serves. MFR has one bus line that runs until 7 PM Monday to Friday and 6 PM on weekends. So, if you are on a late flight, pack light and stretch out those hammies! Same with EUG and RDM and PSC. Oh, sure, there are taxis and rideshare in most places but those are expensive.

Arguments for and against can be made for both air travel and HSR. The biggest difference with HSR is they can serve suburban stops.


For short hops, the best is light rail. That is easy and cheap, At least much cheaper than HSR and small towns and whatnot can easily pay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_rail

The problem in HSR as I had repeated before is that costs can never be repaid. As shared above, out of the 550 billion dollars they raised to make railways, 400 billion dollars is still with the Govt. And they are hoping to issue bonds, and sell railway property. The Japanese stagnation which is now in its fourth-fifth decade is in part due to HSR. France's state-owned Rail has been repeatedly bailed by the Govt. Spain had the private debtor take the debt and hence are somewhat in the clear but if rules in EU change, then they will be in lot of trouble.
 
pune
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 12:25 am

For Japan look at -

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curate ... i-page.pdf

For France and Spain look at -

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 6517307214

Both tell their own stories.
 
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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 1:33 am

pune wrote:

1. Why are you quoting a document from year 1992, which is a whole 30 years ago?
2. Even this document identified, "Gradually, competition from automobiles and aircraft intensified, and JNR lost its competitive edge in all regions except the metropolitan areas and between points connected by the Shinkansen (Bullet Train). Even in metropolitan areas, repeated fare hikes in JNR's final years resulted in fares that were higher than those charged by the private lines."

The result of building non-highspeed lines, will be "lost its competitive edge in all regions", just as this report describe.

pune wrote:
For short hops, the best is light rail. That is easy and cheap, At least much cheaper than HSR and small towns and whatnot can easily pay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_rail

The problem in HSR as I had repeated before is that costs can never be repaid. As shared above, out of the 550 billion dollars they raised to make railways, 400 billion dollars is still with the Govt. And they are hoping to issue bonds, and sell railway property. The Japanese stagnation which is now in its fourth-fifth decade is in part due to HSR. France's state-owned Rail has been repeatedly bailed by the Govt. Spain had the private debtor take the debt and hence are somewhat in the clear but if rules in EU change, then they will be in lot of trouble.

Light rail is for travel inside a city. They are for wholly different distance and type of trips compared to high speed rail, which offer travel option between different cities. Also what is with the fiction of rail debt causing stagnation.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 2:00 am

pune wrote:
For Japan look at -

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curate ... i-page.pdf

For France and Spain look at -

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 6517307214

Both tell their own stories.


:rotfl: Yeah I just...cannot.
 
CowAnon
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 6:18 am

Here's a list of population densities for the major countries with developed HSR networks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density#Most_populous_countries_by_density

| Country | Density (people/sq. km) |
|---------|-------------------------|
| Japan   | 337                     |
| Germany | 233                     |
| Italy   | 201                     |
| China   | 149                     |
| France  | 118                     |
| Spain   |  92                     |


By comparison, California sits at 98 people per square kilometer. That's more than Spain's population density, so it could support a comparable high-speed rail system on a usage basis. If CAHSR ever connects San Francisco to Los Angeles, I think the Central Valley is destined for huge growth, since the overpriced housing markets and lack of construction in SF and LA have contributed to price spikes across the western United States.

The part of the U.S. that's east of the Mississippi River has about 180 million people covering about 2.2 million square kilometers (if you add up the applicable land areas in the next link), which is around 82 people/sq. km. That's less than Spain's density by about 10%, but still probably close enough to make HSR worthwhile. Density for the entire country is only 37 people/sq. km, so a fully national network isn't feasible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population_density
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_United_States
 
Redd
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 8:53 am

c933103 wrote:
Redd wrote:
China has built about 38,000km of high speed rail, in about the same time since California first got approval to start construction back in 2008. California is the world's 3rd largest economy, what's the problem here?

China invested 100 Billion USD into constructing HSR each and every years. While California is thinking about whether it is worth to invest 100 Billion USD in total into linking its two most important cities.



How much has California spent chewing the idea over in the past 14 years?
 
pune
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 12:39 pm

c933103 wrote:
pune wrote:

1. Why are you quoting a document from the year 1992, which is a whole 30 years ago?
2. Even this document identified, "Gradually, competition from automobiles and aircraft intensified, and JNR lost its competitive edge in all regions except the metropolitan areas and between points connected by the Shinkansen (Bullet Train). Even in metropolitan areas, repeated fare hikes in JNR's final years resulted in fares that were higher than those charged by the private lines."

The result of building non-high speed lines will be "lost its competitive edge in all regions", just as this report describes.

pune wrote:
For short hops, the best is light rail. That is easy and cheap, At least much cheaper than HSR and small towns and whatnot can easily pay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_rail

The problem in HSR as I had repeated before is that costs can never be repaid. As shared above, out of the 550 billion dollars they raised to make railways, 400 billion dollars is still with the Govt. And they are hoping to issue bonds, and sell railway property. The Japanese stagnation which is now in its fourth-fifth decade is in part due to HSR. France's state-owned Rail has been repeatedly bailed by the Govt. Spain had the private debtor take the debt and hence is somewhat in the clear but if rules in the EU change, then they will be in a lot of trouble.

Light rail is for travel inside a city. They are for wholly different distances and types of trips compared to high-speed rail, which offers travel options between different cities. Also what is with the fiction of rail debt causing stagnation.


Because the study was from them and is by a Japanese author. And the Japanese author has to say that they did the right thing otherwise would be called traitors. Ask any Japanese economist why they have been under stagflation for four decades and you will find them looking under their shoulders or elsewhere.

The Japanese are known to cook their own books. The reason is two-fold, there are only 8 companies that basically dominate the whole Industry of Japan -

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovati ... 180960356/

The other part is most of these industries are owned by the Yakuza one way or the other.

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... er/327691/
 
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seb146
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 5:41 pm

Redd wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Redd wrote:
China has built about 38,000km of high speed rail, in about the same time since California first got approval to start construction back in 2008. California is the world's 3rd largest economy, what's the problem here?

China invested 100 Billion USD into constructing HSR each and every years. While California is thinking about whether it is worth to invest 100 Billion USD in total into linking its two most important cities.



How much has California spent chewing the idea over in the past 14 years?


Republicans start screaming "we don't have the money!" but, somehow, find money to expand freeways and give money to developers to build houses and condos and more streets.
 
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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 6:21 pm

pune wrote:
c933103 wrote:
pune wrote:

1. Why are you quoting a document from the year 1992, which is a whole 30 years ago?
2. Even this document identified, "Gradually, competition from automobiles and aircraft intensified, and JNR lost its competitive edge in all regions except the metropolitan areas and between points connected by the Shinkansen (Bullet Train). Even in metropolitan areas, repeated fare hikes in JNR's final years resulted in fares that were higher than those charged by the private lines."

The result of building non-high speed lines will be "lost its competitive edge in all regions", just as this report describes.

pune wrote:
For short hops, the best is light rail. That is easy and cheap, At least much cheaper than HSR and small towns and whatnot can easily pay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_rail

The problem in HSR as I had repeated before is that costs can never be repaid. As shared above, out of the 550 billion dollars they raised to make railways, 400 billion dollars is still with the Govt. And they are hoping to issue bonds, and sell railway property. The Japanese stagnation which is now in its fourth-fifth decade is in part due to HSR. France's state-owned Rail has been repeatedly bailed by the Govt. Spain had the private debtor take the debt and hence is somewhat in the clear but if rules in the EU change, then they will be in a lot of trouble.

Light rail is for travel inside a city. They are for wholly different distances and types of trips compared to high-speed rail, which offers travel options between different cities. Also what is with the fiction of rail debt causing stagnation.


Because the study was from them and is by a Japanese author. And the Japanese author has to say that they did the right thing otherwise would be called traitors. Ask any Japanese economist why they have been under stagflation for four decades and you will find them looking under their shoulders or elsewhere.

The Japanese are known to cook their own books. The reason is two-fold, there are only 8 companies that basically dominate the whole Industry of Japan -

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovati ... 180960356/

The other part is most of these industries are owned by the Yakuza one way or the other.

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... er/327691/

Then why did you even link that article to prove your point if you think the document is biased against your point?

Redd wrote:
c933103 wrote:
China invested 100 Billion USD into constructing HSR each and every years. While California is thinking about whether it is worth to invest 100 Billion USD in total into linking its two most important cities.



How much has California spent chewing the idea over in the past 14 years?

An order of magnitude less than this
Current estimated cost for the Central Valley segment of the CAHSR which they are indeed working on, cost ~22 Billion based on latest estimate, yet it still haven't been fully funded ans is asking for money from state legislature and federal government. And even want to try single tracking to save ~1 billion off this first phase.

seb146 wrote:
Republicans start screaming "we don't have the money!" but, somehow, find money to expand freeways and give money to developers to build houses and condos and more streets.

When did Republicans last controlled California state financing?
 
johns624
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 6:27 pm

seb146 wrote:

Republicans start screaming "we don't have the money!" but, somehow, find money to expand freeways and give money to developers to build houses and condos and more streets.
Maybe because that's what the "people" want? It's not just Republicans either, it's all politicians. Remember the infrastructure bill?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 13, 2022 10:51 pm

seb146 wrote:
Redd wrote:
c933103 wrote:
China invested 100 Billion USD into constructing HSR each and every years. While California is thinking about whether it is worth to invest 100 Billion USD in total into linking its two most important cities.



How much has California spent chewing the idea over in the past 14 years?


Republicans start screaming "we don't have the money!" but, somehow, find money to expand freeways and give money to developers to build houses and condos and more streets.


What are you talking about? Californians of all stripes except the most fervently environmentalist basically support freeway expansions...
 
CowAnon
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 7:26 am

c933103 wrote:
Redd wrote:
c933103 wrote:
China invested 100 Billion USD into constructing HSR each and every years. While California is thinking about whether it is worth to invest 100 Billion USD in total into linking its two most important cities.



How much has California spent chewing the idea over in the past 14 years?

An order of magnitude less than this
Current estimated cost for the Central Valley segment of the CAHSR which they are indeed working on, cost ~22 Billion based on latest estimate, yet it still haven't been fully funded ans is asking for money from state legislature and federal government. And even want to try single tracking to save ~1 billion off this first phase.

How coincidental that US$100 billion is brought up. Here's a news article from 2 days ago:

    California Gov. Newsom unveils historic $97.5 billion budget surplus

    SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California is entering the next budget year with a record-smashing surplus of nearly $100 billion, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday.

    Newsom unveiled a revised budget plan of just over $300 billion for the next fiscal year, the highest in state history and fueled by surging tax revenues. The state has collected $55 billion more in taxes than officials expected in January, leaving it with an estimated $97.5 billion surplus.

No mention about using some of that money for rail, though.
 
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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 7:55 am

CowAnon wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Redd wrote:

How much has California spent chewing the idea over in the past 14 years?

An order of magnitude less than this
Current estimated cost for the Central Valley segment of the CAHSR which they are indeed working on, cost ~22 Billion based on latest estimate, yet it still haven't been fully funded ans is asking for money from state legislature and federal government. And even want to try single tracking to save ~1 billion off this first phase.

How coincidental that US$100 billion is brought up. Here's a news article from 2 days ago:

    California Gov. Newsom unveils historic $97.5 billion budget surplus

    SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California is entering the next budget year with a record-smashing surplus of nearly $100 billion, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday.

    Newsom unveiled a revised budget plan of just over $300 billion for the next fiscal year, the highest in state history and fueled by surging tax revenues. The state has collected $55 billion more in taxes than officials expected in January, leaving it with an estimated $97.5 billion surplus.

No mention about using some of that money for rail, though.

https://www.capradio.org/articles/2022/ ... -may-2022/
11.5 billion for drivers and 0.75 billion for public transit.
 
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SQ22
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 8:36 am

Please keep this thread on topic or it will be locked, thanks.
 
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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 4:20 pm

CowAnon wrote:
Here's a list of population densities for the major countries with developed HSR networks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density#Most_populous_countries_by_density

| Country | Density (people/sq. km) |
|---------|-------------------------|
| Japan   | 337                     |
| Germany | 233                     |
| Italy   | 201                     |
| China   | 149                     |
| France  | 118                     |
| Spain   |  92                     |


By comparison, California sits at 98 people per square kilometer. That's more than Spain's population density, so it could support a comparable high-speed rail system on a usage basis. If CAHSR ever connects San Francisco to Los Angeles, I think the Central Valley is destined for huge growth, since the overpriced housing markets and lack of construction in SF and LA have contributed to price spikes across the western United States.

The part of the U.S. that's east of the Mississippi River has about 180 million people covering about 2.2 million square kilometers (if you add up the applicable land areas in the next link), which is around 82 people/sq. km. That's less than Spain's density by about 10%, but still probably close enough to make HSR worthwhile. Density for the entire country is only 37 people/sq. km, so a fully national network isn't feasible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population_density
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_United_States

It is wasteful + slowing down trips, to use high speed rail which have higher cost of operation than conventional rail, and the resultant higher fare, for the purpose of moving people further away from city center.
 
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seb146
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 4:26 pm

c933103 wrote:
CowAnon wrote:
Here's a list of population densities for the major countries with developed HSR networks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density#Most_populous_countries_by_density

| Country | Density (people/sq. km) |
|---------|-------------------------|
| Japan   | 337                     |
| Germany | 233                     |
| Italy   | 201                     |
| China   | 149                     |
| France  | 118                     |
| Spain   |  92                     |


By comparison, California sits at 98 people per square kilometer. That's more than Spain's population density, so it could support a comparable high-speed rail system on a usage basis. If CAHSR ever connects San Francisco to Los Angeles, I think the Central Valley is destined for huge growth, since the overpriced housing markets and lack of construction in SF and LA have contributed to price spikes across the western United States.

The part of the U.S. that's east of the Mississippi River has about 180 million people covering about 2.2 million square kilometers (if you add up the applicable land areas in the next link), which is around 82 people/sq. km. That's less than Spain's density by about 10%, but still probably close enough to make HSR worthwhile. Density for the entire country is only 37 people/sq. km, so a fully national network isn't feasible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population_density
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_United_States

It is wasteful + slowing down trips, to use high speed rail which have higher cost of operation than conventional rail, and the resultant higher fare, for the purpose of moving people further away from city center.


But doesn't any rail do that? Look at Sounder in Seattle and Metrolink in Los Angeles and ACE, CalTrain, and SMART in the SF Bay Area. They all connect communities far from the city centers.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 4:37 pm

seb146 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
CowAnon wrote:
Here's a list of population densities for the major countries with developed HSR networks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density#Most_populous_countries_by_density

| Country | Density (people/sq. km) |
|---------|-------------------------|
| Japan   | 337                     |
| Germany | 233                     |
| Italy   | 201                     |
| China   | 149                     |
| France  | 118                     |
| Spain   |  92                     |


By comparison, California sits at 98 people per square kilometer. That's more than Spain's population density, so it could support a comparable high-speed rail system on a usage basis. If CAHSR ever connects San Francisco to Los Angeles, I think the Central Valley is destined for huge growth, since the overpriced housing markets and lack of construction in SF and LA have contributed to price spikes across the western United States.

The part of the U.S. that's east of the Mississippi River has about 180 million people covering about 2.2 million square kilometers (if you add up the applicable land areas in the next link), which is around 82 people/sq. km. That's less than Spain's density by about 10%, but still probably close enough to make HSR worthwhile. Density for the entire country is only 37 people/sq. km, so a fully national network isn't feasible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population_density
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_United_States

It is wasteful + slowing down trips, to use high speed rail which have higher cost of operation than conventional rail, and the resultant higher fare, for the purpose of moving people further away from city center.


But doesn't any rail do that? Look at Sounder in Seattle and Metrolink in Los Angeles and ACE, CalTrain, and SMART in the SF Bay Area. They all connect communities far from the city centers.


Well no, because the infrastructure requirements for HSR are well beyond those for commuter rail.
 
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william
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 4:37 pm

The point of the posting the news article, was to show that big building projects on the scale of the CAHSR project cannot be done in this day and age sadly. The only large scale project that has gone relatively on time so far is the LGA terminal rebuilds. Even AA had a dumpster fire building its terminal in MIA.

The will or know how to go big is gone.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 4:40 pm

william wrote:
The point of the posting the news article, was to show that big building projects on the scale of the CAHSR project cannot be done in this day and age sadly. The only large scale project that has gone relatively on time so far is the LGA terminal rebuilds. Even AA had a dumpster fire building its terminal in MIA.

The will or know how to go big is gone.


Too many cooks in the kitchen. In some respects there is too much democratic process in local politics. Ever been to a planning commission meeting that has a public comment component? I have and sometimes they only get to agenda item 4 by 1 AM and call it a day with five items remaining.
 
pune
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 4:55 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
william wrote:
The point of the posting the news article, was to show that big building projects on the scale of the CAHSR project cannot be done in this day and age sadly. The only large-scale project that has gone relatively on time so far is the LGA terminal rebuilds. Even AA had a dumpster fire building its terminal in MIA.

The will or know how to go big is gone.


Too many cooks in the kitchen. In some respects, there is too much democratic process in local politics. Ever been to a planning commission meeting that has a public comment component? I have and sometimes they only get to agenda item 4 by 1 AM and call it a day with five items remaining.


But if you don't then you have no accountability. I will tell you from personal experience what I have seen and experienced when the meetings and discussions for the Pune Metro Rail budget. There have changed the budget 15 times and this is the number of times they have gone public. Sadly and ironically, each time the number of people who are going to use the Metro has been revised downwards, and land-sale, taxation, and whatnot has been used to make sure the budget balances. And this is just the white side of the business, whatever corruption may be happening is something else. Most of the public doesn't even know or care to find out who even the contractors are, most of them close to the Central ruling party. Pune does have a partial metro after a decade and will take another decade just to have the initial spokes all around the city, Connecting the spokes to each other like a wheel would be work that will go on for decades and it would be costly, whether how many people travel on it or not irrespective.

And while granted what I'm sharing is just city-wide, inter-city is the same thing. What you would ideally want are services which are at least twice-thrice a day or even more. I'll just share for e.g. the traffic between Mumbai and Pune and there were something like 200+ trains between the two cities and all of them used to be booked fully. And this is just trains, the travel time between the twin cities is around 3 hrs. There used to be 10 times bus services point to point between the two cities.
 
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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 4:57 pm

william wrote:
The point of the posting the news article, was to show that big building projects on the scale of the CAHSR project cannot be done in this day and age sadly. The only large scale project that has gone relatively on time so far is the LGA terminal rebuilds. Even AA had a dumpster fire building its terminal in MIA.

The will or know how to go big is gone.

If money are being put in then it can be done.
The problem is there are no will to put money in.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 4:58 pm

pune wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
william wrote:
The point of the posting the news article, was to show that big building projects on the scale of the CAHSR project cannot be done in this day and age sadly. The only large-scale project that has gone relatively on time so far is the LGA terminal rebuilds. Even AA had a dumpster fire building its terminal in MIA.

The will or know how to go big is gone.


Too many cooks in the kitchen. In some respects, there is too much democratic process in local politics. Ever been to a planning commission meeting that has a public comment component? I have and sometimes they only get to agenda item 4 by 1 AM and call it a day with five items remaining.


But if you don't then you have no accountability. I will tell you from personal experience what I have seen and experienced when the meetings and discussions for the Pune Metro Rail budget. There have changed the budget 15 times and this is the number of times they have gone public. Sadly and ironically, each time the number of people who are going to use the Metro has been revised downwards, and land-sale, taxation, and whatnot has been used to make sure the budget balances. And this is just the white side of the business, whatever corruption may be happening is something else. Most of the public doesn't even know or care to find out who even the contractors are, most of them close to the Central ruling party. Pune does have a partial metro after a decade and will take another decade just to have the initial spokes all around the city, Connecting the spokes to each other like a wheel would be work that will go on for decades and it would be costly, whether how many people travel on it or not irrespective.

And while granted what I'm sharing is just city-wide, inter-city is the same thing. What you would ideally want are services which are at least twice-thrice a day or even more. I'll just share for e.g. the traffic between Mumbai and Pune and there were something like 200+ trains between the two cities and all of them used to be booked fully. And this is just trains, the travel time between the twin cities is around 3 hrs. There used to be 10 times bus services point to point between the two cities.


I didn't say pare the whole thing back - but the problem is public comments that have absolutely no bearing on the proposal or its actual parameters. Come to a meeting in a large US city and you'll hear public comment about everything from shadows to bird droppings to whatever else. And we don't have to worry about accountability in the sense you may be used to in India - there is extensive documentation of these proposals and deals and it is all available to the public on file in the city or county office.
 
pune
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sat May 14, 2022 5:04 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
pune wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Too many cooks in the kitchen. In some respects, there is too much democratic process in local politics. Ever been to a planning commission meeting that has a public comment component? I have and sometimes they only get to agenda item 4 by 1 AM and call it a day with five items remaining.


But if you don't then you have no accountability. I will tell you from personal experience what I have seen and experienced when the meetings and discussions for the Pune Metro Rail budget. There have changed the budget 15 times and this is the number of times they have gone public. Sadly and ironically, each time the number of people who are going to use the Metro has been revised downwards, and land-sale, taxation, and whatnot has been used to make sure the budget balances. And this is just the white side of the business, whatever corruption may be happening is something else. Most of the public doesn't even know or care to find out who even the contractors are, most of them close to the Central ruling party. Pune does have a partial metro after a decade and will take another decade just to have the initial spokes all around the city, Connecting the spokes to each other like a wheel would be work that will go on for decades and it would be costly, whether how many people travel on it or not irrespective.

And while granted what I'm sharing is just city-wide, inter-city is the same thing. What you would ideally want are services which are at least twice-thrice a day or even more. I'll just share for e.g. the traffic between Mumbai and Pune and there were something like 200+ trains between the two cities and all of them used to be booked fully. And this is just trains, the travel time between the twin cities is around 3 hrs. There used to be 10 times bus services point to point between the two cities.


I didn't say pare the whole thing back - but the problem is public comments that have absolutely no bearing on the proposal or its actual parameters. Come to a meeting in a large US city and you'll hear public comments about everything from shadows to bird droppings to whatever else. And we don't have to worry about accountability in the sense you may be used to in India - there is extensive documentation of these proposals and deals and it is all available to the public on file in the city or county office.


The problem is even if the executive has the purest motives, bureaucracies and whatnot have their own way of functioning. India is also supposed to be democratic, but any hard-hitting questions are usually asked by pensioners who don't have to think about any blowback. And of course, most officials when asked about something, say something to the effect ' this needs more study' will get to you afterward and that question is left undocumented. I am just sharing what I have seen in my own city. I do hope that the U.S. has better standards than that.
 
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seb146
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sun May 15, 2022 2:46 am

Aaron747 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
It is wasteful + slowing down trips, to use high speed rail which have higher cost of operation than conventional rail, and the resultant higher fare, for the purpose of moving people further away from city center.


But doesn't any rail do that? Look at Sounder in Seattle and Metrolink in Los Angeles and ACE, CalTrain, and SMART in the SF Bay Area. They all connect communities far from the city centers.


Well no, because the infrastructure requirements for HSR are well beyond those for commuter rail.


Yes, but, at the same time, when the 205 freeway was built through east Portland in the 1970s, they had a culvert dug between Division and Stark/Washington because "some train will come through here some day maybe". And, lo-and-behold, when Green Line was built, there was an underpass under 205 for two MAX tracks with the overhead electric power between Stark and Division. And it saved millions of dollars.

It is impossible for any city to plan 30 years in the future. Seattle had a great idea with their "Express Lanes" but they are now Sound Transit light rail lines. Which is just as great. But, no one knows what the future holds. Every city is different. I just think some of these "well, it might happen...." projects are interesting.
 
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ER757
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Sun May 15, 2022 11:09 pm

seb146 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
seb146 wrote:

But doesn't any rail do that? Look at Sounder in Seattle and Metrolink in Los Angeles and ACE, CalTrain, and SMART in the SF Bay Area. They all connect communities far from the city centers.


Well no, because the infrastructure requirements for HSR are well beyond those for commuter rail.


Yes, but, at the same time, when the 205 freeway was built through east Portland in the 1970s, they had a culvert dug between Division and Stark/Washington because "some train will come through here some day maybe". And, lo-and-behold, when Green Line was built, there was an underpass under 205 for two MAX tracks with the overhead electric power between Stark and Division. And it saved millions of dollars.

It is impossible for any city to plan 30 years in the future. Seattle had a great idea with their "Express Lanes" but they are now Sound Transit light rail lines. Which is just as great. But, no one knows what the future holds. Every city is different. I just think some of these "well, it might happen...." projects are interesting.

The only place in the Seattle area where the express lanes were converted to rail lines is across the I-90 floating bridge for the Link light rail line to Bellevue and Redmond. Everywhere else they are being converted slowly but surely to toll lanes for single occupant or free for carpool. Of course I'll be long gone before the system is completed.
 
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seb146
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Mon May 16, 2022 4:48 am

ER757 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Well no, because the infrastructure requirements for HSR are well beyond those for commuter rail.


Yes, but, at the same time, when the 205 freeway was built through east Portland in the 1970s, they had a culvert dug between Division and Stark/Washington because "some train will come through here some day maybe". And, lo-and-behold, when Green Line was built, there was an underpass under 205 for two MAX tracks with the overhead electric power between Stark and Division. And it saved millions of dollars.

It is impossible for any city to plan 30 years in the future. Seattle had a great idea with their "Express Lanes" but they are now Sound Transit light rail lines. Which is just as great. But, no one knows what the future holds. Every city is different. I just think some of these "well, it might happen...." projects are interesting.

The only place in the Seattle area where the express lanes were converted to rail lines is across the I-90 floating bridge for the Link light rail line to Bellevue and Redmond. Everywhere else they are being converted slowly but surely to toll lanes for single occupant or free for carpool. Of course I'll be long gone before the system is completed.


No GOOD transit is ever complete.

When I lived in Auburn (south King county) Sounder South had just started and getting from my apartment to my work in Bellevue took three hours by car or... ummmm... maybe that bus is running? by bus. I am glad to see Puget Sound dragging themselves into the 1990s LOL
 
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Wed May 18, 2022 5:46 am

william wrote:
The point of the posting the news article, was to show that big building projects on the scale of the CAHSR project cannot be done in this day and age sadly. The only large scale project that has gone relatively on time so far is the LGA terminal rebuilds. Even AA had a dumpster fire building its terminal in MIA.

The will or know how to go big is gone.

The will is still there:

California Voters (Still) Want their Bullet Train (April 19, 2022)

    Fifty six percent of voters support continuing to build the state’s high-speed rail system, with only 35 percent opposed, according to a new study from Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.

    “By a margin of 73 percent to 18 percent, Democrats support the project, with 54 percent of independent voters in support and 37 percent opposed. Registered Republicans oppose the project—66 percent to 25 percent,” wrote the U.S. High Speed Rail Coalition in a statement about the poll.

===

"Newsom’s high-speed rail dispute
Assembly Democrats refuse to hand over $4.2 billion appropriation for beleaguered system"

https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/newsom-s-high-speed-rail-dispute/article_82e64a4a-cf71-11ec-a3f6-6ffd63444644.html


I would also be a little skeptical about the author of the piece (Ralph Vartabedian) and any coverage from the Los Angeles Times (which is probably where this article originated, as Vartabedian was the aviation reporter for the LAT and has written many anti-HSR articles for it). Their coverage reminds me of the Seattle Times's anti-rail slant on the various Sound Transit initiatives, although the opposition mainly comes from the editorial board and columnists instead of the reporters. I think both newspaper owners are hiding their own personal tax concerns behind claims of fiscal mismanagement.

Blocking the $4.2 billion funding appropriation seems pretty stupid to me, even if you don't consider the state's $97.5 billion budget surplus from last year. A 25-year, $56 billion voter initiative passed two years ago for Sound Transit 3, and ST's taxing district only covers the Seattle metro area. $4.2 billion spread out across the most populous, richest state is a pittance by comparison to build out infrastructure unique and useful to the country.
 
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Wed May 18, 2022 7:42 am

pune wrote:
And while granted what I'm sharing is just city-wide, inter-city is the same thing. What you would ideally want are services which are at least twice-thrice a day or even more. I'll just share for e.g. the traffic between Mumbai and Pune and there were something like 200+ trains between the two cities and all of them used to be booked fully. And this is just trains, the travel time between the twin cities is around 3 hrs. There used to be 10 times bus services point to point between the two cities.

Then why you don't think some of them can use a high speed rail to alleviate the crowded rail tracks if there are 200+ trains carrying passengers between the two cities?
 
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Wed May 18, 2022 7:52 am

seb146 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
seb146 wrote:

But doesn't any rail do that? Look at Sounder in Seattle and Metrolink in Los Angeles and ACE, CalTrain, and SMART in the SF Bay Area. They all connect communities far from the city centers.


Well no, because the infrastructure requirements for HSR are well beyond those for commuter rail.


Yes, but, at the same time, when the 205 freeway was built through east Portland in the 1970s, they had a culvert dug between Division and Stark/Washington because "some train will come through here some day maybe". And, lo-and-behold, when Green Line was built, there was an underpass under 205 for two MAX tracks with the overhead electric power between Stark and Division. And it saved millions of dollars.

It is impossible for any city to plan 30 years in the future. Seattle had a great idea with their "Express Lanes" but they are now Sound Transit light rail lines. Which is just as great. But, no one knows what the future holds. Every city is different. I just think some of these "well, it might happen...." projects are interesting.

To reword my previous post, the thing is that if you are building high speed rail instead of commuter rail for people to commute, then you are intentionally putting people further away than where they should be able to live in or commute from. That is wastage of extra energy and manpower. No matter how many years into the "future", the inherent physical different in distance still wouldn't be changed. Which come with all the costs of it.
Japan explored the concept of "Commuter Shinkansen" when their economy was growing fast and many population influx into Tokyo, with a station 50 km away from city center and then another station 100 km away from center, and support those stations with large development around each stations, to house enough population that can provide ridership support to those lines. But when one is building such a scale of development, why don't one simply build them closer in and add more stations in-between to make it like a commuter rail line, which is going to save a lot of money by not having to build and operate the trains to this far out at this high a speed?

The proposal might make more sense if like Tokyo is even more packed than nowadays and such there aren't any places left to build extra housing nearby, but places like Los Angeles and San Francisco definitely isn't like this with their current density of development.
 
pune
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Wed May 18, 2022 8:05 am

c933103 wrote:
pune wrote:
And while granted what I'm sharing is just city-wide, inter-city is the same thing. What you would ideally want are services which are at least twice-thrice a day or even more. I'll just share for e.g. the traffic between Mumbai and Pune and there were something like 200+ trains between the two cities and all of them used to be booked fully. And this is just trains, the travel time between the twin cities is around 3 hrs. There used to be 10 times bus services point to point between the two cities.

Then why you don't think some of them can use a high-speed rail to alleviate the crowded rail tracks if there are 200+ trains carrying passengers between the two cities?


I already shared the maths, if you have dedicated one HSR, then only 1% will be able to travel on that route, what happens to others. They won't be able to travel. You can look at all HSR projects, they usually have a separate track at a considerable distance between HSR and conventional tracks. For that, you have to first acquire land as well as knowledge. Both are gonna be long-term and expensive. Even in the Japanese proposal, most of the rake equipment, tracks, signaling, etc. would be coming from Japan. To date, there is not even a single technology transfer agreement between India and Japan. So India gains nothing either by way of jobs or technology. It is very similar to the semiconductor fiasco being played out -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6Z_uFwxPtk

And this is apart from all the taxes that everybody would have to bear, every Indian citizen, irrespective of whether they travel in HSR or not.
 
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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Wed May 18, 2022 8:18 am

pune wrote:
I already shared the maths, if you have dedicated one HSR, then only 1% will be able to travel on that route, what happens to others. They won't be able to travel.

Is India so poor that only 1% can afford travelling on HSR?
And regardless of answer, I am definitely sure more than 1% people in California can afford to travel via HSR.

You can look at all HSR projects, they usually have a separate track at a considerable distance between HSR and conventional tracks.

Alternative way to add capacity is to quadruple existing track. Which will have tracks that are just as slow, but won't be cheaper, as urban development usually happens along tracks already existing, and clearing that out for building extra tracks could likely be more expensive than buying land in the middle of nowhere to build whole new high speed rail track.

For that, you have to first acquire land as well as knowledge. Both are gonna be long-term and expensive. Even in the Japanese proposal, most of the rake equipment, tracks, signaling, etc. would be coming from Japan. To date, there is not even a single technology transfer agreement between India and Japan. So India gains nothing either by way of jobs or technology. It is very similar to the semiconductor fiasco being played out -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6Z_uFwxPtk

And this is apart from all the taxes that everybody would have to bear, every Indian citizen, irrespective of whether they travel in HSR or not.

I don't understand this logic. This is as if saying India shouldn't buy Boeing or Airbus planes unless they teach India how to build Indian's own planes.
 
cpd
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Wed May 18, 2022 11:42 pm

Sorry to go off-topic from the main discussion of Indian HSR, but to turn back to California (which is in the title of the topic), has anything actually started yet in terms of getting the land needed to start the project, detailed planning of the route and anything else needed in terms of cuttings, bridges, tunnels, whatever else?

Or is it still at the stage of artwork and computer generated videos? If that's the case then there is no hope at all.
 
af773atmsp
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 19, 2022 3:06 am

cpd wrote:
Sorry to go off-topic from the main discussion of Indian HSR, but to turn back to California (which is in the title of the topic), has anything actually started yet in terms of getting the land needed to start the project, detailed planning of the route and anything else needed in terms of cuttings, bridges, tunnels, whatever else?

Or is it still at the stage of artwork and computer generated videos? If that's the case then there is no hope at all.


The Central Valley segment between Bakersfield and Merced is already under construction. As for the other segments, I think they're still in the planning stages besides the electrification of CalTrain's route between San Francisco and San Jose, which CAHSR is planned to also utilize.
 
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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 19, 2022 12:29 pm

cpd wrote:
Sorry to go off-topic from the main discussion of Indian HSR, but to turn back to California (which is in the title of the topic), has anything actually started yet in terms of getting the land needed to start the project, detailed planning of the route and anything else needed in terms of cuttings, bridges, tunnels, whatever else?

Or is it still at the stage of artwork and computer generated videos? If that's the case then there is no hope at all.


The initial 119 miles experimental of the route in Central valley is already under construction. But train service will only start after completing 171 miles of the route. Rest of the route, aka the second phase, including those that connect into Los Angeles, as well as those that connect toward rail system to the Bay Area, have their detailed alignment published and is completing the environmental impact assessment procedure. These environmental planning procedures have been completed for the 171 miles quite some years ago according to my memory. But I have read that a problem with CAHSR is they sometimes have to change the route on the fly.

CAHSR official youtube channel have quarterly video updates posted about engineering works being done every quarter, including bridges being built on the ground for the high speed rail and such.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgIa4uAnVVw Here is a drone video filming the status of construction of the whole initial 119 miles right of way from last year.
 
pune
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 19, 2022 9:49 pm

c933103 wrote:
pune wrote:
I already shared the maths, if you have dedicated one HSR, then only 1% will be able to travel on that route, what happens to others. They won't be able to travel.

Is India so poor that only 1% can afford travelling on HSR?
And regardless of answer, I am definitely sure more than 1% people in California can afford to travel via HSR.

You can look at all HSR projects, they usually have a separate track at a considerable distance between HSR and conventional tracks.

Alternative way to add capacity is to quadruple existing track. Which will have tracks that are just as slow, but won't be cheaper, as urban development usually happens along tracks already existing, and clearing that out for building extra tracks could likely be more expensive than buying land in the middle of nowhere to build whole new high speed rail track.

For that, you have to first acquire land as well as knowledge. Both are gonna be long-term and expensive. Even in the Japanese proposal, most of the rake equipment, tracks, signaling, etc. would be coming from Japan. To date, there is not even a single technology transfer agreement between India and Japan. So India gains nothing either by way of jobs or technology. It is very similar to the semiconductor fiasco being played out -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6Z_uFwxPtk

And this is apart from all the taxes that everybody would have to bear, every Indian citizen, irrespective of whether they travel in HSR or not.

I don't understand this logic. This is as if saying India shouldn't buy Boeing or Airbus planes unless they teach India how to build its own planes.


Yes it is, Due to the economic policies being followed by the present Govt. more than 50% of the population has become below the poverty line

https://www.wicz.com/story/46508333/ind ... acktracked

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/ ... 357697.ece
 
pune
Posts: 1670
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Thu May 19, 2022 9:56 pm

Due to the economic policies followed by the present Govt. the middle-class which was growing at a healthy 5-6% year or year had been going down. This article from before the pandemic actually tells you what the situation was and pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war has made things much more difficult for the Indian middle class.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-41264072

So if 50% of the population survives on $2 or INR Rs. 150 then how are they going to pay INR 1k for an HSR ticket. Travel expenses are supposed to be less than 10% of what you earn.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/op ... 752250.ece
 
cpd
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 20, 2022 2:46 am

c933103 wrote:
cpd wrote:
Sorry to go off-topic from the main discussion of Indian HSR, but to turn back to California (which is in the title of the topic), has anything actually started yet in terms of getting the land needed to start the project, detailed planning of the route and anything else needed in terms of cuttings, bridges, tunnels, whatever else?

Or is it still at the stage of artwork and computer generated videos? If that's the case then there is no hope at all.


The initial 119 miles experimental of the route in Central valley is already under construction. But train service will only start after completing 171 miles of the route. Rest of the route, aka the second phase, including those that connect into Los Angeles, as well as those that connect toward rail system to the Bay Area, have their detailed alignment published and is completing the environmental impact assessment procedure. These environmental planning procedures have been completed for the 171 miles quite some years ago according to my memory. But I have read that a problem with CAHSR is they sometimes have to change the route on the fly.

CAHSR official youtube channel have quarterly video updates posted about engineering works being done every quarter, including bridges being built on the ground for the high speed rail and such.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgIa4uAnVVw Here is a drone video filming the status of construction of the whole initial 119 miles right of way from last year.


Thanks for the clarification, so it’s a chance to happen with that kind of work going ahead. That’s good. The building is easier than the planning stages seemingly.


And once again apologies for going off topic from the main discussion of Indian HSR and Indian poverty line…. (Cough, cough, hint, hint)

SQ22 wrote:
Please keep this thread on topic or it will be locked, thanks.


Cough, ahem, cough… this cough is getting bad…
 
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c933103
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 20, 2022 8:16 am

As of 2020 half of China earned less than 1000CNY a month, or 330 INR a day. And HSR tickets in China cost much more than 1K INR or 100CNY. Yet their trunk routes still have the strong ridership you are seeing, although it is not the case for poorer township. HSR isn't something you take daily unless you are some executive level business traveler having to visit different cities every days.

This also refute the absolutely ridiculous argument that Californian with their income they are earning, aren't going to have the money to buy train tickets.

Like, be it California or India or anywhere else where HSR routes have been proposed, most of them already have established air routes and sizable volume of air passengers. And while HSR aren't always cheaper than the cheapest LCC tickets, they usually won't cost any significantly more. No reason passengers who are now paying for airline tickets wouldn't be able to afford paying for HSR ticket for intercity travel.

Think of other existing modes can also answer many questions about HSR. Like some questioned whether HSRs are going to be viable in American cities without good public transit where passengers will need their cars to get to and from stations? The airports are already up and running and carrying millions of passengers every year despite the same lack of public transit as well as needing car connection. HSR wouldn't be any worse than that. And just like airport construction can often lead to discussion of building extra transit service for airport passengers, HSR development could and should also be tied with similar local transit link improvement to make travelers feel more convenient, and at the end also improving local transit system especially given that HSR stations are usually much closer to downtown of cities, even though such improvement isn't mandatory.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1915
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Re: California High Speed Rail running into difficulties

Fri May 20, 2022 10:06 am

c933103 wrote:
As of 2020 half of China earned less than 1000CNY a month, or 330 INR a day. And HSR tickets in China cost much more than 1K INR or 100CNY. Yet their trunk routes still have the strong ridership you are seeing, although it is not the case for poorer township. HSR isn't something you take daily unless you are some executive level business traveler having to visit different cities every days.

This also refute the absolutely ridiculous argument that Californian with their income they are earning, aren't going to have the money to buy train tickets.

Like, be it California or India or anywhere else where HSR routes have been proposed, most of them already have established air routes and sizable volume of air passengers. And while HSR aren't always cheaper than the cheapest LCC tickets, they usually won't cost any significantly more. No reason passengers who are now paying for airline tickets wouldn't be able to afford paying for HSR ticket for intercity travel.

Think of other existing modes can also answer many questions about HSR. Like some questioned whether HSRs are going to be viable in American cities without good public transit where passengers will need their cars to get to and from stations? The airports are already up and running and carrying millions of passengers every year despite the same lack of public transit as well as needing car connection. HSR wouldn't be any worse than that. And just like airport construction can often lead to discussion of building extra transit service for airport passengers, HSR development could and should also be tied with similar local transit link improvement to make travelers feel more convenient, and at the end also improving local transit system especially given that HSR stations are usually much closer to downtown of cities, even though such improvement isn't mandatory.


I think you are incorrectly calculating the cost of California HSR and train tickets. The cost would be 1-2 trillion. The 150-200 billion so far is just a tiny beginning. Tickets would be around $5,000. You'd need to force people to ride it at that price, and build prisons for the people who refuse to ride it.

HSR would never be able to compete with California's high speed air corridor services. This was already clear by the 1960s... Having done plenty of airline route analysis in past life... HSR metrics are in another galaxy less efficient.

Support for HSR tends to be centered on "80-90% subsidized train tickets," which would be paid for by imagined wealth transfers from people who have money. If passengers had to pay the true cost, no one would ride it. Go ahead and locate predicted fully-allocated cost per ticket for California HSR. I will get some popcorn. Let me know when you find it. :D

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