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DIRECTFLT
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China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 6:55 am

Biden's Taiwan pledge was no 'gaffe,' says analyst
An expert on U.S.-China relations analyzes President Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan against China.
Reuters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA2mJYjhlck

China retaliates after Biden's Taiwan comment

The PLA has announced it is organizing combat drills around Taiwan. The militaries of China and the US are piling up lethal weapons in the region. Is the threat of a war growing in the Indo-Pacific?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlTwFDTpDrA

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers a speech at GWU on U.S. policy towards China for the Asia Society Policy Institute on May 26, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfE5BXfTExA
 
LCDFlight
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 1:26 pm

This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.
 
victrola
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 2:30 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.


Biden's statement about Ukraine was merely a statement of a reality that everybody already knew. There was no way that any US President would intervene in Ukraine and Russia knew that. If any US President had stated that the US would intervene militarily in Ukraine, Russia would have merely called his bluff. Putin has been planning this for decades and was going in no matter what any US President said. The idea that Putin was waiting for a green light from the US is complete nonsense.
 
Vintage
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 2:55 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.

Biden has handled the Russian threat and the Russian invasion masterfully. It would be hard to imagine him doing anything differently if he could re-do it.

The CIA had inside information that Russia was going to invade almost five months before the invasion took place, and Biden used that information to organize an international response as well as to prepare Ukraine (which is how the Russian Special Forces were defeated at the Hostomel Airport).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... er-russia/

BTW
Taiwan is not a country if you buy into the Chinese view.
 
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 2:58 pm

Biden was just affirming long-standing US policy toward Taiwan. The US still respects the One China policy, but has always held that integration of Taiwan must be voluntary and consensual, and not by force. That has not changed.

In Ukraine, there was no such US policy or agreement. Ukraine has the option to join NATO, to fall under the umbrella of Western protection, but the process has requirements that Ukraine has not yet met. So the US and other nations have actively supported Ukraine, financially, militarily, materially, with intelligence, and in protesting & sanctioning Russian actions, but they will not commit forces there.
 
victrola
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 3:09 pm

Why does anyone think that China could pull off an invasion of Taiwan? An opposed landing of troops on this scale over 160 kilometers of open water has never been attempted in in history. Given the surprises we have seen in the Ukraine war, I don't see how anyone could predict what would happen if China attempted such an operation. Taiwan has been preparing for this for over 70 years. I'm sure they have gamed out all possible scenarios and have plans to counter them.
 
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Aesma
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 3:51 pm

Well Japan did invade China, Russia, Korea, without issue. But I agree with you, Taiwan wouldn't be easy to invade. I would expect them to have, on top of what is known, a few tricks down their sleeves, like some thousands surface-ship and surface-air missiles. Small arms stockpiles to give every citizen when needed. Plans to blow up strategic bridges. Ships ready to mine their waters. Things like that.
 
GDB
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 4:43 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.


‘Your take’ ignores the fact that Ukraine was not in NATO, do you even understand what that means? Y’know, the organisation his predecessor hated as part of his butt kissing of Putin. Think we’ve forgotten that?
Germany made it’s huge changes in their defence and foreign policy entirely due to Putin’s actions.
(They are being prevented from supplying their Spike-ER anti armour systems to Ukraine as they licence build it, who owns the licence won’t let them do so. Israel, the other rogue state, who have been very uncooperative in general).

Pretty poor attempt at trying to rewrite very recent history.
 
Redd
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 5:12 pm

GDB wrote:
Germany made it’s huge changes in their defence and foreign policy entirely due to Putin’s actions.


Yeah, if they had just listened to Trump when he warned Germany and NATO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu57D9YcIk0
 
LCDFlight
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 5:38 pm

GDB wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.


‘Your take’ ignores the fact that Ukraine was not in NATO, do you even understand what that means? Y’know, the organisation his predecessor hated as part of his butt kissing of Putin. Think we’ve forgotten that?
Germany made it’s huge changes in their defence and foreign policy entirely due to Putin’s actions.
(They are being prevented from supplying their Spike-ER anti armour systems to Ukraine as they licence build it, who owns the licence won’t let them do so. Israel, the other rogue state, who have been very uncooperative in general).

Pretty poor attempt at trying to rewrite very recent history.


Are you trying to teach me that Taiwan is in NATO?

It was Putin's incursion into Ukraine, and Biden's firm commitment not to intervene militarily that shocked Germany to its core. I would argue Biden's action was the more unprecedented of the two.
 
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 5:44 pm

Redd wrote:
GDB wrote:
Germany made it’s huge changes in their defence and foreign policy entirely due to Putin’s actions.


Yeah, if they had just listened to Trump when he warned Germany and NATO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu57D9YcIk0


This is mainly Trump blathering on with complaints about Germany and NATO, who are among our strongest allies, and are essential now in the coalition to support Ukraine. Doing business with Russia then was no more wrong than doing business with China is now, until Putin broke his word and invaded Ukraine. After which Trump praised Putin as being a very smart guy and a tough negotiator.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 5:55 pm

victrola wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.


Biden's statement about Ukraine was merely a statement of a reality that everybody already knew. There was no way that any US President would intervene in Ukraine and Russia knew that. If any US President had stated that the US would intervene militarily in Ukraine, Russia would have merely called his bluff. Putin has been planning this for decades and was going in no matter what any US President said. The idea that Putin was waiting for a green light from the US is complete nonsense.


" let me say it again: Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO Allies and reassure those Allies in the east." - US Pres Joe Biden, 2/24/2022

Why on earth would he volunteer that?! He gave Putin a license to commit as much murder as he could in Ukraine, specifically vowing not to respond. It was bizarre.

Ukraine is a European democracy and UN member. Taiwan is neither. Yet Biden has no problem threatening the use of force in defending Taiwan.
 
GDB
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 6:10 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
GDB wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.


‘Your take’ ignores the fact that Ukraine was not in NATO, do you even understand what that means? Y’know, the organisation his predecessor hated as part of his butt kissing of Putin. Think we’ve forgotten that?
Germany made it’s huge changes in their defence and foreign policy entirely due to Putin’s actions.
(They are being prevented from supplying their Spike-ER anti armour systems to Ukraine as they licence build it, who owns the licence won’t let them do so. Israel, the other rogue state, who have been very uncooperative in general).

Pretty poor attempt at trying to rewrite very recent history.


Are you trying to teach me that Taiwan is in NATO?

It was Putin's incursion into Ukraine, and Biden's firm commitment not to intervene militarily that shocked Germany to its core. I would argue Biden's action was the more unprecedented of the two.


Of course I know Taiwan’s status, no formal military alliance with the US, nor anyone else. Not in the UN due to China.
But the policy of strategic ambiguity has been brought sharply into focus with Ukraine, which also had no formal alliances and a hostile large power with a grudge matched with the idea they have a right to impose their rule on a population which doesn’t want it.
The parallels are obvious, also it is thought that Putin warned his fellow dictator of the invasion, while Russia and China have had a variable relationship, from split late 50’s/early 60’s culminating in border clashes by the end of that decade, to a thawing once Mao and a decade later, the last of the Soviet old guard went, more recently with military and technological cooperation.

So it was a calculation, not a gaffe, to remind China that within that ‘ambiguity’ the US would not sit still, or just go for sanctions, if China, enboldened by Russia with Ukraine, chose a military solution too.
Since then, much has happened, one thing that certainly hasn’t is the ease of the takeover that Putin no doubt assured Xi of.

That’s without the rapid aid by the US, NATO, EU and others as far away as South Korea and Australia too. Could it be the latter two see real linkage with Ukraine and the response to it and a potential flashpoint far closer to their part of the world?

You quoted Biden, dated when the invasion occured, so how was he giving a pass to something that was already happening?
Who was it warning of the real Russian intentions beforehand, which Ukraine actually (at least in public) rejected.
If US and NATO forces went into Ukraine therefore engaging in direct combat with the Russians, what would happen next? Clue; it never happened in the Cold War, wonder why?
Do you need reminding that the US, UK, Canada and the NATO Baltic states provided assistance, post the Crimea invasion/coup until just prior to the Russian action this year, (really a total change from old Soviet to modern Western training and doctrine, from the ground up)?
Stationing NATO forces in Ukraine prior to the war would have been very poltically and diplomatically problematic and ironically, a huge boost to Russian PR.

With Taiwan, Biden’s statement which got them het up in Foggy Bottom, I see that as reiterating fact, with Xi’s new buddy on the rampage it needed saying.
Last edited by GDB on Fri May 27, 2022 6:35 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 6:26 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
victrola wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.


Biden's statement about Ukraine was merely a statement of a reality that everybody already knew. There was no way that any US President would intervene in Ukraine and Russia knew that. If any US President had stated that the US would intervene militarily in Ukraine, Russia would have merely called his bluff. Putin has been planning this for decades and was going in no matter what any US President said. The idea that Putin was waiting for a green light from the US is complete nonsense.


" let me say it again: Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO Allies and reassure those Allies in the east." - US Pres Joe Biden, 2/24/2022

Why on earth would he volunteer that?! He gave Putin a license to commit as much murder as he could in Ukraine, specifically vowing not to respond. It was bizarre.

Ukraine is a European democracy and UN member. Taiwan is neither. Yet Biden has no problem threatening the use of force in defending Taiwan.


So again, in both cases Biden correctly stated US policy, which has never changed. US policy is to defend Taiwan militarily against a forced integration by China. And US policy is not to defend Ukraine, as no defense agreement exists. Ukraine has an opportunity to join NATO if it desires that defense agreement, but NATO membership has requirements that Ukraine could not meet. In spite of that the US has supported Ukraine by every means except direct military intervention. As have NATO and many other nations.

Ukraine wanted to join NATO as a defense against Russian aggression. Putin invaded Ukraine because he wants to return to the Soviet era of having bordering satellite states that he controls, as a defensive perimeter against NATO. He wants that because he knows that Russia could not stand against NATO. But that strategy has backfired as he has provoked Finland into joining NATO, so he now has a much more potent adversary on his border than Ukraine ever was. And his objectives are foiled in Ukraine, the best he can do is annex some additional territory, but at that point he will be halted and weakened, while NATO will be much stronger. And Ukraine will have preserved its option to join NATO in the future, unless they choose to negotiate that away, as Russia desires. That will be their choice.
 
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 6:38 pm

Vintage wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.

Biden has handled the Russian threat and the Russian invasion masterfully. It would be hard to imagine him doing anything differently if he could re-do it.

The CIA had inside information that Russia was going to invade almost five months before the invasion took place, and Biden used that information to organize an international response as well as to prepare Ukraine (which is how the Russian Special Forces were defeated at the Hostomel Airport).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... er-russia/

BTW
Taiwan is not a country if you buy into the Chinese view.


100% agree, President Biden and his administration has handled the invasion of Ukraine masterfully. Of course Ukraine would have loved the US to come in and bomb Russia to oblivian, but next to that they have had everything they have asked for. They have intelligence that helped them target Russian Military leadership and to sink the Flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Russia is losing and is going to lose, they're just drawing out the inevitable.

Lets not let China's Faux outrage fool anyone, they have mock ups of US Aircraft carriers and Japanese bases in their Northwestern deserts where they have been war gaming their invasion. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has definitely made it quite evident that everyone has a plan until they're punched in the face.

Taiwan needs to arm itself and train it's population for the invasion. The US, Australia, UK and Japan will no doubt come to Taiwan's aide, as will Singapore, South Korea and perhaps Vietnam.
 
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 6:38 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
victrola wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.


Biden's statement about Ukraine was merely a statement of a reality that everybody already knew. There was no way that any US President would intervene in Ukraine and Russia knew that. If any US President had stated that the US would intervene militarily in Ukraine, Russia would have merely called his bluff. Putin has been planning this for decades and was going in no matter what any US President said. The idea that Putin was waiting for a green light from the US is complete nonsense.


" let me say it again: Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO Allies and reassure those Allies in the east." - US Pres Joe Biden, 2/24/2022

Why on earth would he volunteer that?! He gave Putin a license to commit as much murder as he could in Ukraine, specifically vowing not to respond. It was bizarre.

Ukraine is a European democracy and UN member. Taiwan is neither. Yet Biden has no problem threatening the use of force in defending Taiwan.

America is a North America country, not a European country. And United States territories of Guam and Northern Mariana are much closer to Taiwan than any US land is to Ukraine.

United States have force in Japan and South Korea, and used to have force in Taiwan, as these area were once part of Imperial Japan before 1945, and after the leaving of military regime controlling these places, American military have filled the gap, in providing security for people living over these regions in collaboration with local forces, in the same way that Western Allied countries being militarily committed to West Germany.
 
victrola
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 6:43 pm

" let me say it again: Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO Allies and reassure those Allies in the east." - US Pres Joe Biden, 2/24/2022

Why on earth would he volunteer that?! He gave Putin a license to commit as much murder as he could in Ukraine, specifically vowing not to respond. It was bizarre.

Ukraine is a European democracy and UN member. Taiwan is neither. Yet Biden has no problem threatening the use of force in defending Taiwan.[/quote]

You still have no understanding of the situation. He merely stated the obvious that there was no way NATO was going to go to war over Ukraine. Anyone who believed that the US might intervene militarily in Ukraine is living in a fantasy world. So Biden's statement had absolutely no influence on Putin's decision to invade Ukraine. Do you think that anyone out there with half a brain would think that the US would intervene militarily in Ukraine?

And your comment about Germany is laughable. They never expected the US to intervene militarily in Ukraine. What would have really shocked Germany would have been if the US had announced intentions to intervene militarily.
Last edited by victrola on Fri May 27, 2022 6:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 6:47 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
victrola wrote:

Biden's statement about Ukraine was merely a statement of a reality that everybody already knew. There was no way that any US President would intervene in Ukraine and Russia knew that. If any US President had stated that the US would intervene militarily in Ukraine, Russia would have merely called his bluff. Putin has been planning this for decades and was going in no matter what any US President said. The idea that Putin was waiting for a green light from the US is complete nonsense.


" let me say it again: Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO Allies and reassure those Allies in the east." - US Pres Joe Biden, 2/24/2022

Why on earth would he volunteer that?! He gave Putin a license to commit as much murder as he could in Ukraine, specifically vowing not to respond. It was bizarre.

Ukraine is a European democracy and UN member. Taiwan is neither. Yet Biden has no problem threatening the use of force in defending Taiwan.


So again, in both cases Biden correctly stated US policy, which has never changed. US policy is to defend Taiwan militarily against a forced integration by China. And US policy is not to defend Ukraine, as no defense agreement exists. Ukraine has an opportunity to join NATO if it desires that defense agreement, but NATO membership has requirements that Ukraine could not meet. In spite of that the US has supported Ukraine by every means except direct military intervention. As have NATO and many other nations.

Ukraine wanted to join NATO as a defense against Russian aggression. Putin invaded Ukraine because he wants to return to the Soviet era of having bordering satellite states that he controls, as a defensive perimeter against NATO. He wants that because he knows that Russia could not stand against NATO. But that strategy has backfired as he has provoked Finland into joining NATO, so he now has a much more potent adversary on his border than Ukraine ever was. And his objectives are foiled in Ukraine, the best he can do is annex some additional territory, but at that point he will be halted and weakened, while NATO will be much stronger. And Ukraine will have preserved its option to join NATO in the future, unless they choose to negotiate that away, as Russia desires. That will be their choice.


You are right about Taiwan, but just because Ukraine is not in NATO does not mean we just “watch with sadness” as people there are mass murdered. We have just as much right as Russia to deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine. (In fact this is a massive understatement - we would be invited guests, whereas Russia is an invading enemy).

Being in NATO is not a requirement to receive our help and our peacekeepers. By that logic, Russia and China can openly conquer all non-NATO countries and we wouldn’t do anything to help. It’s laziness taken to a grotesque extreme.

I will admit this much, though. China is the US’s main strategic enemy, not Russia. So if we must pay attention to one, I’m glad it is China.
 
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Aesma
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 6:55 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Are you trying to teach me that Taiwan is in NATO?

It was Putin's incursion into Ukraine, and Biden's firm commitment not to intervene militarily that shocked Germany to its core. I would argue Biden's action was the more unprecedented of the two.


That's forgetting the cosy relationship many in Germany had with Russia/Putin. Clearly they didn't expect Russia/Putin to wage war in Ukraine or they would have acted differently.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 11:28 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

" let me say it again: Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO Allies and reassure those Allies in the east." - US Pres Joe Biden, 2/24/2022

Why on earth would he volunteer that?! He gave Putin a license to commit as much murder as he could in Ukraine, specifically vowing not to respond. It was bizarre.

Ukraine is a European democracy and UN member. Taiwan is neither. Yet Biden has no problem threatening the use of force in defending Taiwan.


So again, in both cases Biden correctly stated US policy, which has never changed. US policy is to defend Taiwan militarily against a forced integration by China. And US policy is not to defend Ukraine, as no defense agreement exists. Ukraine has an opportunity to join NATO if it desires that defense agreement, but NATO membership has requirements that Ukraine could not meet. In spite of that the US has supported Ukraine by every means except direct military intervention. As have NATO and many other nations.

Ukraine wanted to join NATO as a defense against Russian aggression. Putin invaded Ukraine because he wants to return to the Soviet era of having bordering satellite states that he controls, as a defensive perimeter against NATO. He wants that because he knows that Russia could not stand against NATO. But that strategy has backfired as he has provoked Finland into joining NATO, so he now has a much more potent adversary on his border than Ukraine ever was. And his objectives are foiled in Ukraine, the best he can do is annex some additional territory, but at that point he will be halted and weakened, while NATO will be much stronger. And Ukraine will have preserved its option to join NATO in the future, unless they choose to negotiate that away, as Russia desires. That will be their choice.


You are right about Taiwan, but just because Ukraine is not in NATO does not mean we just “watch with sadness” as people there are mass murdered. We have just as much right as Russia to deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine. (In fact this is a massive understatement - we would be invited guests, whereas Russia is an invading enemy).

Being in NATO is not a requirement to receive our help and our peacekeepers. By that logic, Russia and China can openly conquer all non-NATO countries and we wouldn’t do anything to help. It’s laziness taken to a grotesque extreme.

I will admit this much, though. China is the US’s main strategic enemy, not Russia. So if we must pay attention to one, I’m glad it is China.


There is nothing "lazy" whatever in the US response to the Ukraine invasion. What there is, is discipline in not engaging in another foreign war, that this time would involve the entire European continent and the NATO alliance. Not to mention making Ukraine the battlefield for that war. And justifying Putin's false rhetoric that he needs to invade Ukraine because they are an agent of the West.

The notion of peacekeepers requires agreement from both sides that they are not there as combatants. Putin has made it clear that he did not agree, and would have responded militarily to their presence as foreign invaders with the intention of harming Russia. This is of course false, but the battle would have been fought anyway.

You can also argue that NATO and/or the US are powerful enough to win, even in all-out war, but at what cost? And who pays that price? Mostly the people of Ukraine, and the people of Europe and Russia when the missiles start flying. This is the problem with those that demand war, they are almost always safe from the consequences.

The path that has been pursued, is the method of least harm while opposing Russia and supporting Ukraine. It gives the choice to fight, or not, entirely to the Ukrainians. And they have done a magnificent job in safeguarding the majority of the country. As long as they are willing to fight, we will continue to help them and provide what they need to do so. If we go in, then it would no longer be their choice alone, or even their conflict alone. It would be the West vs Russia, full tilt.

Some people would like to see that happen, believing we would win. But true leaders have to think about consequences. There are other ways to achieve those goals, as the world has united in excluding Russia from commerce and trade. It's a slower route but can be just as effective in the end, without open conflict, and without the cost in lives that would otherwise result.
Last edited by Avatar2go on Fri May 27, 2022 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
johns624
Posts: 5962
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 11:44 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

" let me say it again: Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO Allies and reassure those Allies in the east." - US Pres Joe Biden, 2/24/2022

Why on earth would he volunteer that?! He gave Putin a license to commit as much murder as he could in Ukraine, specifically vowing not to respond. It was bizarre.

Ukraine is a European democracy and UN member. Taiwan is neither. Yet Biden has no problem threatening the use of force in defending Taiwan.


So again, in both cases Biden correctly stated US policy, which has never changed. US policy is to defend Taiwan militarily against a forced integration by China. And US policy is not to defend Ukraine, as no defense agreement exists. Ukraine has an opportunity to join NATO if it desires that defense agreement, but NATO membership has requirements that Ukraine could not meet. In spite of that the US has supported Ukraine by every means except direct military intervention. As have NATO and many other nations.

Ukraine wanted to join NATO as a defense against Russian aggression. Putin invaded Ukraine because he wants to return to the Soviet era of having bordering satellite states that he controls, as a defensive perimeter against NATO. He wants that because he knows that Russia could not stand against NATO. But that strategy has backfired as he has provoked Finland into joining NATO, so he now has a much more potent adversary on his border than Ukraine ever was. And his objectives are foiled in Ukraine, the best he can do is annex some additional territory, but at that point he will be halted and weakened, while NATO will be much stronger. And Ukraine will have preserved its option to join NATO in the future, unless they choose to negotiate that away, as Russia desires. That will be their choice.


You are right about Taiwan, but just because Ukraine is not in NATO does not mean we just “watch with sadness” as people there are mass murdered. We have just as much right as Russia to deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine. (In fact this is a massive understatement - we would be invited guests, whereas Russia is an invading enemy).

Being in NATO is not a requirement to receive our help and our peacekeepers. By that logic, Russia and China can openly conquer all non-NATO countries and we wouldn’t do anything to help. It’s laziness taken to a grotesque extreme.

I will admit this much, though. China is the US’s main strategic enemy, not Russia. So if we must pay attention to one, I’m glad it is China.
If Biden had said that we'd put boots on the ground in Ukraine, the whole GOP and its supporters would've called him a warmonger and wanted to impeach him.
 
LabQuest
Posts: 388
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Fri May 27, 2022 11:53 pm

johns624 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:

So again, in both cases Biden correctly stated US policy, which has never changed. US policy is to defend Taiwan militarily against a forced integration by China. And US policy is not to defend Ukraine, as no defense agreement exists. Ukraine has an opportunity to join NATO if it desires that defense agreement, but NATO membership has requirements that Ukraine could not meet. In spite of that the US has supported Ukraine by every means except direct military intervention. As have NATO and many other nations.

Ukraine wanted to join NATO as a defense against Russian aggression. Putin invaded Ukraine because he wants to return to the Soviet era of having bordering satellite states that he controls, as a defensive perimeter against NATO. He wants that because he knows that Russia could not stand against NATO. But that strategy has backfired as he has provoked Finland into joining NATO, so he now has a much more potent adversary on his border than Ukraine ever was. And his objectives are foiled in Ukraine, the best he can do is annex some additional territory, but at that point he will be halted and weakened, while NATO will be much stronger. And Ukraine will have preserved its option to join NATO in the future, unless they choose to negotiate that away, as Russia desires. That will be their choice.


You are right about Taiwan, but just because Ukraine is not in NATO does not mean we just “watch with sadness” as people there are mass murdered. We have just as much right as Russia to deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine. (In fact this is a massive understatement - we would be invited guests, whereas Russia is an invading enemy).

Being in NATO is not a requirement to receive our help and our peacekeepers. By that logic, Russia and China can openly conquer all non-NATO countries and we wouldn’t do anything to help. It’s laziness taken to a grotesque extreme.

I will admit this much, though. China is the US’s main strategic enemy, not Russia. So if we must pay attention to one, I’m glad it is China.
If Biden had said that we'd put boots on the ground in Ukraine, the whole GOP and its supporters would've called him a warmonger and wanted to impeach him.


I think that would have been universally opposed. I voted for the guy and would be adamantly against that.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 7:55 am

Vintage wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
This is my take. Biden's statement on Ukraine that he would not intervene militarily was the biggest US gaffe in the 20 years since the Iraq invasion. Immediately after Biden's horrible mistake, Germany, more shocked than they have been since 1945, instantly began developing a full military. Biden's statement triggered a new, post-US era in European security. Days later, having been given a green light by Biden, Putin's invasion began.

Biden knows this has gone very, very poorly. His staff knows. This is why he made the opposite comment about Taiwan. Despite the other factors -- such as that Taiwan is not a country and Ukraine is. Taiwan is not a UN member and Ukraine is. The Taiwan statement was a gaffe meant to correct another gaffe.

Biden should instead have said something more correct, which is that the US started diplomatic relations with China only in parallel with a Taiwan defense policy. No Taiwan defense, no relations (and no trade) with China.

Biden has handled the Russian threat and the Russian invasion masterfully. It would be hard to imagine him doing anything differently if he could re-do it.

The CIA had inside information that Russia was going to invade almost five months before the invasion took place, and Biden used that information to organize an international response as well as to prepare Ukraine (which is how the Russian Special Forces were defeated at the Hostomel Airport).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... er-russia/

BTW
Taiwan is not a country if you buy into the Chinese view.


So why do only Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Holy See, Honduras, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Nicaragua, Palau, Paraguay, St Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Swaziland and Tuvalu recognise Taiwan as a sovereign nation? The US doesn’t, neither does the UN, it’s not just Chinas view it’s the majority of the worlds view.
 
Redd
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 8:13 am

Avatar2go wrote:
Redd wrote:
GDB wrote:
Germany made it’s huge changes in their defence and foreign policy entirely due to Putin’s actions.


Yeah, if they had just listened to Trump when he warned Germany and NATO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu57D9YcIk0


This is mainly Trump blathering on with complaints about Germany and NATO, who are among our strongest allies, and are essential now in the coalition to support Ukraine. Doing business with Russia then was no more wrong than doing business with China is now, until Putin broke his word and invaded Ukraine. After which Trump praised Putin as being a very smart guy and a tough negotiator.


Putin is a smart guy and a tough negotiator. He's also a tyrant and murderer. but that doesn't change the fact that Trump spelled out this situation for everyone years ago. It's easier for people to bury their heads in the sand and ignore that fact than acknowledging the truth. ;)
 
Vintage
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 9:03 am

Redd wrote:
that doesn't change the fact that Trump spelled out this situation for everyone years ago.

Do you have a link to something that provides validity for that statement?
 
Redd
Posts: 1554
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 9:11 am

Vintage wrote:
Redd wrote:
that doesn't change the fact that Trump spelled out this situation for everyone years ago.

Do you have a link to something that provides validity for that statement?


Yes, in my post before last. It's Trump spelling out this situation to EU leaders. There are also a few more videos like that in different situations, even EU politicians laughing at him for saying what ultimately came to fruition.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 9:22 am

Redd wrote:

Putin is a smart guy and a tough negotiator. He's also a tyrant and murderer. but that doesn't change the fact that Trump spelled out this situation for everyone years ago. It's easier for people to bury their heads in the sand and ignore that fact than acknowledging the truth. ;)


Trump wanted Putin readmitted to the G7 after being expelled for the 2014 Crimea annexation. Also was impeached for withholding $391M of military aid from Ukraine.

When Zelensky asked to spend the money on Javelin missiles, which ironically have turned the tide for Ukraine now, Trump asked him to investigate the Bidens as a prerequisite to receiving the funds. That is the truth, recorded fact.

You claim that others have their heads buried in the sand. Well pot, meet kettle!

Here is an article on what actually happened, and how some Americans misremember it in the presence of competing narratives.

https://www.deseret.com/2022/3/18/22981 ... ia-ukraine
 
Vintage
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 9:26 am

Redd wrote:
Vintage wrote:
Redd wrote:
that doesn't change the fact that Trump spelled out this situation for everyone years ago.

Do you have a link to something that provides validity for that statement?


Yes, in my post before last. It's Trump spelling out this situation to EU leaders. There are also a few more videos like that in different situations, even EU politicians laughing at him for saying what ultimately came to fruition.
That was Trump boorishly ranting at the Europeans as part of his campaign to destroy NATO. Trump worked as an agent of Russia during his term in office, that was just an example of how he went about alienating the Europeans. Everybody on this side of the Atlantic was opposed to Northstream but Trump was not accomplishing anything with that rant.

I thought you were claiming that Trump predicted the invasion of Ukraine.
 
GDB
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 10:50 am

Redd wrote:
Vintage wrote:
Redd wrote:
that doesn't change the fact that Trump spelled out this situation for everyone years ago.

Do you have a link to something that provides validity for that statement?


Yes, in my post before last. It's Trump spelling out this situation to EU leaders. There are also a few more videos like that in different situations, even EU politicians laughing at him for saying what ultimately came to fruition.


The same Trump who at the meeting of murder and hate crime enablers, (the latter being his whole poltical platform, after all, according to him all Hispanics are rapists and drug dealers), now wants US aid to Ukraine to stop and instead be spent on ‘solving’ a self inflicted, uniquely US problem, that the very people he was shilling for there are one of the main causes of.
That Trump?
As stated above his interest in Ukraine began and ended with seeking political dirt, when it wasn’t there, like the vile spoiled child who millions of Americans love, he sulked off.

So please do not assume the rest of the world so was easily fooled by this toxic, crooked buffoon.
Listen to him? You must be joking, he never met a despot he didn’t like and as the events of January last year showed, wanted to be one himself and he barely makes sense anyway, at least to reasonably intelligent adults.
Putin being by far his favourite despot.

Maybe seeing, with Ukraine, with the reminder to another despot sniffing around for some territory to invade in this case with Taiwan, an administration essentially competent is a big butt hurt to Trump fans, he was Bund 2.0 and his supporters have been shown up, as with the Bund and their love for another foreign despot, on the wrong side of history.
 
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Aesma
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 1:09 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
So why do only Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Holy See, Honduras, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Nicaragua, Palau, Paraguay, St Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Swaziland and Tuvalu recognise Taiwan as a sovereign nation? The US doesn’t, neither does the UN, it’s not just Chinas view it’s the majority of the worlds view.


It's a condition to doing business with the big China. The reverse isn't true, you can do business with Taiwan without recognizing it as an independent country.
 
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STT757
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 1:30 pm

Redd wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:
Redd wrote:

Yeah, if they had just listened to Trump when he warned Germany and NATO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu57D9YcIk0


This is mainly Trump blathering on with complaints about Germany and NATO, who are among our strongest allies, and are essential now in the coalition to support Ukraine. Doing business with Russia then was no more wrong than doing business with China is now, until Putin broke his word and invaded Ukraine. After which Trump praised Putin as being a very smart guy and a tough negotiator.


Putin is a smart guy and a tough negotiator. He's also a tyrant and murderer. but that doesn't change the fact that Trump spelled out this situation for everyone years ago. It's easier for people to bury their heads in the sand and ignore that fact than acknowledging the truth. ;)


Obviously Putin is not as smart as people give him credit for, the invasion of Ukraine is his decision. He's been planning this for a long time, it's going to go down in history as one of the biggest military blunders.
 
Redd
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 2:41 pm

STT757 wrote:
Redd wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:

This is mainly Trump blathering on with complaints about Germany and NATO, who are among our strongest allies, and are essential now in the coalition to support Ukraine. Doing business with Russia then was no more wrong than doing business with China is now, until Putin broke his word and invaded Ukraine. After which Trump praised Putin as being a very smart guy and a tough negotiator.


Putin is a smart guy and a tough negotiator. He's also a tyrant and murderer. but that doesn't change the fact that Trump spelled out this situation for everyone years ago. It's easier for people to bury their heads in the sand and ignore that fact than acknowledging the truth. ;)


Obviously Putin is not as smart as people give him credit for, the invasion of Ukraine is his decision. He's been planning this for a long time, it's going to go down in history as one of the biggest military blunders.



So far the Rouble is stronger than ever, energy and food prices have gone down or stayed the same for Russians, plenty of new economic partnerships for Russia. Meanwhile, us in the West are getting pummeled by much higher prices for everything. Putin had all this planned, and our sanctions are mostly hurting our own citizens.

As for the military blunder, I hope you're right. I some how don't see it that way, but I hope I'm wrong.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 2:46 pm

Aesma wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
So why do only Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Holy See, Honduras, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Nicaragua, Palau, Paraguay, St Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Swaziland and Tuvalu recognise Taiwan as a sovereign nation? The US doesn’t, neither does the UN, it’s not just Chinas view it’s the majority of the worlds view.


It's a condition to doing business with the big China. The reverse isn't true, you can do business with Taiwan without recognizing it as an independent country.


Not it isn’t.
 
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Aesma
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 3:27 pm

Redd wrote:
So far the Rouble is stronger than ever, energy and food prices have gone down or stayed the same for Russians, plenty of new economic partnerships for Russia. Meanwhile, us in the West are getting pummeled by much higher prices for everything. Putin had all this planned, and our sanctions are mostly hurting our own citizens.

As for the military blunder, I hope you're right. I some how don't see it that way, but I hope I'm wrong.


For the average citizen the strength of the ruble is meaningless, it's almost illegal to buy hard currency, plenty of foreign stuff has disappeared from supermarket shelves... From a French journalist in Moscow prices for food are 30% up, much more than in the West. But I'm not there, I can't verify by myself.

Ruble price is highly manipulated (as it can't free float like before, due to sanctions) and now the government is in fear as its value is too high : https://www.ft.com/content/22bd612b-c5d ... 5b69a1da37

From the article, inflation is at around 20% :

“While this is not a free market-determined exchange rate, rouble stability is at the same time ‘real,’ in the sense that it’s driven by Russia’s all-time-high current account inflows,” she said.

The stronger rouble has helped to keep a lid on Russia’s inflation, which has begun to ease in recent weeks, slowing for the first time since last summer in the week to May 20, according to state statistics. Annual inflation slowed to 17.5 per cent as of May 20, from 17.8 per cent in April, it said.


As for all going well in Russia :

However, a stronger currency is not a sign of the economy’s resilience to western sanctions, according to Polina Kurdyavko, head of emerging markets at BlueBay Asset Management. Instead, she argued, the rouble rally is a sign of the effectiveness of sanctions in isolating Russia from the global economy.

Alongside an exodus of foreign companies from Russia, groups including Russia’s biggest carmaker Avtovaz have halted production because of a lack of imported components.

“What does rouble strength really mean? Certainly not that the economy is healthy,” Kurdyavko said. “Growth will be deep in negative territory. Inflation is double digits. Clearly pain is being felt. On the most basic level, businesses are closing down because they can’t import anything.”
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sat May 28, 2022 9:44 pm

Redd wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:
Redd wrote:

Yeah, if they had just listened to Trump when he warned Germany and NATO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu57D9YcIk0


This is mainly Trump blathering on with complaints about Germany and NATO, who are among our strongest allies, and are essential now in the coalition to support Ukraine. Doing business with Russia then was no more wrong than doing business with China is now, until Putin broke his word and invaded Ukraine. After which Trump praised Putin as being a very smart guy and a tough negotiator.


Putin is a smart guy and a tough negotiator. He's also a tyrant and murderer. but that doesn't change the fact that Trump spelled out this situation for everyone years ago. It's easier for people to bury their heads in the sand and ignore that fact than acknowledging the truth. ;)



Is he smart? Russia has already lost some 7,000+ soldiers and plenty of high ranking officials. This war has shown the world how weak Russia really is. Putin doesn’t look like the evil genius everyone thought he was pre-invasion. He looks like an old fool who ordered a fumbling invasion of a sovereign nation. The invasion has been a failure and somewhat of a laughing stock because of how incompetent he and his military seems. He’s virtually assured that Russia will remain a pariah on the world stage for decades, not to mention the vast and dramatic consequences this invasion is having on the Russian economy. History has seen countless tyrants like him and I’d argue that he’s no different than any of them. He lusts for power and is willing to do anything to get it. If he was smart, he’d be focusing on improving Russia for the people, instead of sending child killing rapists into to Ukraine to satiate his shortsighted goals.
 
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SQ22
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sun May 29, 2022 3:49 am

Please remember to provide links to your sources when stating facts, thanks.
 
Redd
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sun May 29, 2022 9:09 am

Aesma wrote:
Redd wrote:
So far the Rouble is stronger than ever, energy and food prices have gone down or stayed the same for Russians, plenty of new economic partnerships for Russia. Meanwhile, us in the West are getting pummeled by much higher prices for everything. Putin had all this planned, and our sanctions are mostly hurting our own citizens.

As for the military blunder, I hope you're right. I some how don't see it that way, but I hope I'm wrong.


For the average citizen the strength of the ruble is meaningless, it's almost illegal to buy hard currency, plenty of foreign stuff has disappeared from supermarket shelves... From a French journalist in Moscow prices for food are 30% up, much more than in the West. But I'm not there, I can't verify by myself.

Ruble price is highly manipulated (as it can't free float like before, due to sanctions) and now the government is in fear as its value is too high : https://www.ft.com/content/22bd612b-c5d ... 5b69a1da37

From the article, inflation is at around 20% :

“While this is not a free market-determined exchange rate, rouble stability is at the same time ‘real,’ in the sense that it’s driven by Russia’s all-time-high current account inflows,” she said.

The stronger rouble has helped to keep a lid on Russia’s inflation, which has begun to ease in recent weeks, slowing for the first time since last summer in the week to May 20, according to state statistics. Annual inflation slowed to 17.5 per cent as of May 20, from 17.8 per cent in April, it said.


As for all going well in Russia :

However, a stronger currency is not a sign of the economy’s resilience to western sanctions, according to Polina Kurdyavko, head of emerging markets at BlueBay Asset Management. Instead, she argued, the rouble rally is a sign of the effectiveness of sanctions in isolating Russia from the global economy.

Alongside an exodus of foreign companies from Russia, groups including Russia’s biggest carmaker Avtovaz have halted production because of a lack of imported components.

“What does rouble strength really mean? Certainly not that the economy is healthy,” Kurdyavko said. “Growth will be deep in negative territory. Inflation is double digits. Clearly pain is being felt. On the most basic level, businesses are closing down because they can’t import anything.”



That's the thing isn't it? It's hard to get reliable info from across the Russian border. Western news is portraying Russia as hurting badly, which it needs to do to justify us Westerners the rise in prices from everything from petrol to food.

Russians and Russian media want to portray everything is hunkey dory, nothing to see here, all good. My info about food and petrol prices are coming from friends in Russia, who are by no means supporters of the Putin regime.

But, I'm very open to being wrong here. Hopefully I am.
 
ReverseFlow
Posts: 612
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sun May 29, 2022 11:33 am

Redd wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Redd wrote:
So far the Rouble is stronger than ever, energy and food prices have gone down or stayed the same for Russians, plenty of new economic partnerships for Russia. Meanwhile, us in the West are getting pummeled by much higher prices for everything. Putin had all this planned, and our sanctions are mostly hurting our own citizens.

As for the military blunder, I hope you're right. I some how don't see it that way, but I hope I'm wrong.


For the average citizen the strength of the ruble is meaningless, it's almost illegal to buy hard currency, plenty of foreign stuff has disappeared from supermarket shelves... From a French journalist in Moscow prices for food are 30% up, much more than in the West. But I'm not there, I can't verify by myself.

Ruble price is highly manipulated (as it can't free float like before, due to sanctions) and now the government is in fear as its value is too high : https://www.ft.com/content/22bd612b-c5d ... 5b69a1da37

From the article, inflation is at around 20% :

“While this is not a free market-determined exchange rate, rouble stability is at the same time ‘real,’ in the sense that it’s driven by Russia’s all-time-high current account inflows,” she said.

The stronger rouble has helped to keep a lid on Russia’s inflation, which has begun to ease in recent weeks, slowing for the first time since last summer in the week to May 20, according to state statistics. Annual inflation slowed to 17.5 per cent as of May 20, from 17.8 per cent in April, it said.


As for all going well in Russia :

However, a stronger currency is not a sign of the economy’s resilience to western sanctions, according to Polina Kurdyavko, head of emerging markets at BlueBay Asset Management. Instead, she argued, the rouble rally is a sign of the effectiveness of sanctions in isolating Russia from the global economy.

Alongside an exodus of foreign companies from Russia, groups including Russia’s biggest carmaker Avtovaz have halted production because of a lack of imported components.

“What does rouble strength really mean? Certainly not that the economy is healthy,” Kurdyavko said. “Growth will be deep in negative territory. Inflation is double digits. Clearly pain is being felt. On the most basic level, businesses are closing down because they can’t import anything.”



That's the thing isn't it? It's hard to get reliable info from across the Russian border. Western news is portraying Russia as hurting badly, which it needs to do to justify us Westerners the rise in prices from everything from petrol to food.

Russians and Russian media want to portray everything is hunkey dory, nothing to see here, all good. My info about food and petrol prices are coming from friends in Russia, who are by no means supporters of the Putin regime.

But, I'm very open to being wrong here. Hopefully I am.
This:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1507820186417520644

From here:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1507 ... 79364.html

But inflation is everywhere.
And I think we are digressing from the topic.
 
johns624
Posts: 5962
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Re: China: The US, Taiwan, & the Rest of the World . . .

Sun May 29, 2022 1:48 pm

Redd wrote:

That's the thing isn't it? It's hard to get reliable info from across the Russian border. Western news is portraying Russia as hurting badly, which it needs to do to justify us Westerners the rise in prices from everything from petrol to food.

There's also the intangibles that we're paying for. The war has increased military spending in Europe, gotten two more reliable allies applying for NATO membership and shown that Russia isn't all that we thought that they were. That will allow us to focus next on our next threat, the PRC.

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