China has announced some international flights will be resuming, maybe this might be a topic that can be discussed.

It's a small start, but nowhere near levels in 2019. I just wonder when all restrictions will be dropped, and all airlines can openly sell flights again like it was before.

A question I have though is on flightrader24, I see some chinese flights from Europe flying. With current entry restrictions (and the lack of public bookings it seems) is this flying with passengers or only cargo at the moment?

Almost all are passenger aircraft being used for cargo only.

Thank you for starting this thread. Nothing will be decided until at least the 20th CCP National Conference in October this year. This is the conference to decide the leadership group in the next 5 years. If Xi gets his 3rd term, the "reopening" is going to be a trickle. Having said that the Chinese embassies have recently resumed issuing business and compassionate visas, hopefully this is the start of a torrent instead.

There have been international passenger flights from and to China during the pandemic. They are just limited to once weekly by and large. Far from lack of booking the demand is so inappropriately met the airlines are able to charge exorbitant prices.

From the looks of it, you're basically going from one flight a week to two, which isn't a meaningful increase. Furthermore, in spite of the entry relaxations, entry is still very limited and for specific purposes.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixi ... -cases-ebb

Furthermore, there is a great deal of confusion over how long China's zero COVID policy will last. One CCP official said it could last up to five years, but that's been disputed. So, nobody really knows.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/27/asia/chi ... index.html

Anyways, I used to work for a China-affiliated NGO and some of my former colleagues there have pretty good relations with CCP officials and know that government and how it works inside and out. I should note that not one of them who is based outside the PRC has been back into the country since the start of the pandemic, when they used to go at least every quarter. And none of them think that China will open their borders in any way before 2023. And even when they do, it will be more restricted than before the pandemic.

Cerecl wrote:

Thank you for starting this thread. Nothing will be decided until at least the 20th CCP National Conference in October this year. This is the conference to decide the leadership group in the next 5 years. If Xi gets his 3rd term, the "reopening" is going to be a trickle. Having said that the Chinese embassies have recently resumed issuing business and compassionate visas, hopefully this is the start of a torrent instead.

There have been international passenger flights from and to China during the pandemic. They are just limited to once weekly by and large. Far from lack of booking the demand is so inappropriately met the airlines are able to charge exorbitant prices.

You beat me to the punch. If Xi gets his third term, the PRC's opening will be much slower than if someone else takes charge.

Several facts to consider when thinking about the question of when flights to China will resume:
1. The virus will continue to circulate and evolve unabated everywhere on Earth (excluding China) permanently
2. To maintain zero-COVID within the country, if the virus starts to spread in the community, the only way is to impose severe lockdown (similar to what Shanghai went through for 3 months from Apr to Jun)
3. If there is no existing community spread of the virus and the virus is spreading widely outside of the border, then the only way to prevent a community spread from starting is to stop the virus from crossing the border
4. Lockdown is extremely costly (as demonstrated in Shanghai) and thus it is only a measure to be taken if there is no other choice
5. Chairman Xi has said it publicly himself (and the speech was broadcasted and published in media) that the high toll of death in the West by the virus is a proof that the Chinese political system and value is superior to the liberal democratic political system and value. And this concept has been sold to the public in China by the propaganda machine of the Party. The zero-COVID policy is therefore the cornerstone to maintain this proof of "superiority" and that Chinese people are living in the "Communist Paradise"

So, to maintain that "proof", the least costly way is to make sure the virus does not get into China and start a community spread. And since the proof needs to be permanently maintained (otherwise, the system is not superior any more at the exact time when the proof is broken), China cannot reasonably relax any travel restriction. They got themselves into this place by going so far and say that zero-COVID is a proof that they are better than US. How would you expect a strongman like Xi walk back on a speech like this that he said it himself? If it's from a lower ranking official, then they can walk back, but not if it's from the Supreme Leader.

I don't expect any meaningful relaxation of travel restriction and resumption of normal flights until Xi leaves his post and no longer exert influence. When is it going to happen? Only God knows.

raylee67 wrote:

Several facts to consider when thinking about the question of when flights to China will resume:
1. The virus will continue to circulate and evolve unabated everywhere on Earth (excluding China) permanently
2. To maintain zero-COVID within the country, if the virus starts to spread in the community, the only way is to impose severe lockdown (similar to what Shanghai went through for 3 months from Apr to Jun)
3. If there is no existing community spread of the virus and the virus is spreading widely outside of the border, then the only way to prevent a community spread from starting is to stop the virus from crossing the border
4. Lockdown is extremely costly (as demonstrated in Shanghai) and thus it is only a measure to be taken if there is no other choice
5. Chairman Xi has said it publicly himself (and the speech was broadcasted and published in media) that the high toll of death in the West by the virus is a proof that the Chinese political system and value is superior to the liberal democratic political system and value. And this concept has been sold to the public in China by the propaganda machine of the Party. The zero-COVID policy is therefore the cornerstone to maintain this proof of "superiority" and that Chinese people are living in the "Communist Paradise"

So, to maintain that "proof", the least costly way is to make sure the virus does not get into China and start a community spread. And since the proof needs to be permanently maintained (otherwise, the system is not superior any more at the exact time when the proof is broken), China cannot reasonably relax any travel restriction. They got themselves into this place by going so far and say that zero-COVID is a proof that they are better than US. How would you expect a strongman like Xi walk back on a speech like this that he said it himself? If it's from a lower ranking official, then they can walk back, but not if it's from the Supreme Leader.

I don't expect any meaningful relaxation of travel restriction and resumption of normal flights until Xi leaves his post and no longer exert influence. When is it going to happen? Only God knows.

Yeah, you pretty much summed it all up right there. I woke up today to a single case in my city (Nanjing) and now everyone’s travel codes are locked. No leaving without quarantine, even if going to other cities in the country. It’s not opening any time soon. I hope I’m wrong on that, but at the very least (and I’m doubtful even then) as another poster mentioned, nothing before the Party Congress this fall. Flights will continue to operate in very limited numbers as they have been, but Chinese citizens can’t even leave the country without exit approval and a study/work visa. Entering is even more strict, I know companies here paying foreign workers fairly large bonuses not to travel home during the summer due since it’s assumed once you leave you’re not coming back. The Beijing Party Committee released a memo last night saying “at least five more years” of zero covid, so who can say.

China cuts quarantine time for international pax from 21 to 10 days
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-contacts

chunhimlai wrote:

China cuts quarantine time for international pax from 21 to 10 days
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-contacts

That's an improvement, but its still a virtual prison sentence on arrival. And then I think to travel around the country there are all kinds of complicated and unpredictable restrictions, with the risk of being locked up and sent to a "facility" at any time. I think I'll give it a miss.

PU letter requirement was dropped recently, making it easier for people to apply for some visa types, such as work and family reunion.

It's hard to say what's going to happen with zero Covid. Public opinion is definitely turning against it, and if they have many more Shanghai-style lockdowns they'll simply run out of money to enforce it. The government estimates that abandoning zero Covid would cost 1.2-1.5 million lives because the elderly have an absolutely abysmal vaccination rate. Too many antivaxxers.

peterinlisbon wrote:

chunhimlai wrote:

China cuts quarantine time for international pax from 21 to 10 days
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-contacts

That's an improvement, but its still a virtual prison sentence on arrival. And then I think to travel around the country there are all kinds of complicated and unpredictable restrictions, with the risk of being locked up and sent to a "facility" at any time. I think I'll give it a miss.

I realize this contradicts my previous post where I said there would be no change until the Party Congress but this is awesome news. 7 days in a quarantine facility is miles better than 21! Now they need to remove the Five One policy and allow more flights to be scheduled so people can affordably go home!

Many people see the 7+3 as an improvement.

But realistically speaking, it is not enough to encourage international leisure traffic. Maybe some ethical Chinese who now feel more at ease to visit friends and families. However, what if the city they are visiting suddenly decide to shut down again? What if someone got checked as Covid patient in quarantine?

Reopen? No. Relaxing previous measure? Yes. We are still a long way from reopening! Someone suggested October. I am afraid that is overly optimistic. I used to think like that until late 2020. Following the Peking Mayor stating the next five years few days ago, I now believe the restriction is to stay until at least spring of 2023. Maybe we revisit this thread again next year!

chonetsao wrote:

Many people see the 7+3 as an improvement.

But realistically speaking, it is not enough to encourage international leisure traffic. Maybe some ethical Chinese who now feel more at ease to visit friends and families. However, what if the city they are visiting suddenly decide to shut down again? What if someone got checked as Covid patient in quarantine?

Reopen? No. Relaxing previous measure? Yes. We are still a long way from reopening! Someone suggested October. I am afraid that is overly optimistic. I used to think like that until late 2020. Following the Peking Mayor stating the next five years few days ago, I now believe the restriction is to stay until at least spring of 2023. Maybe we revisit this thread again next year!

If that's true, it will be really interesting to see what happens to the Chinese airline industry -- and the Chinese economy as a whole as to how it integrates into the global economy that has fueled its growth.

Another question is what will happen to CX and Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has backed himself into a nonsensical corner on Zero covid for political reasons but can afford to do so with such a domestic market. However, Carrie Lam and her successor John Lee, by wedding themselves to opening to China before the rest of the world have backed themselves into a corner that Hong Kong and CX, with the huge restrictions on transfer traffic, cannot afford. They probably never envisaged Beijing turning the country into the 21st century Forbidden Palace for as long as they are, and so still, there is limited travel across the border, even between Hong Kong and the mainland, let alone the wider world. Cuts in the quarantine period in Hong Kong did nothing to slow the net exodus from the territory as people view 'Asia's world city' as pretty much not open to the world, so why would it be different for China? Having quarantine really isn't practical for business or leisure, and now it's starting to bite the administration in HK. They can't switch track to opening to the world because of the loss of political face and backlash from Beijing, but it's been over two years with no free movement from a tiny territory dependent on international trade and expats are steaming out of the territory taking their jobs with them. Domestic China and its airlines have a domestic market it can insulate itself from during periods it doesn't have another locally imposed lock down, Hong Kong doesn't.

eurotrader85 wrote:

Another question is what will happen to CX and Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has backed himself into a nonsensical corner on Zero covid for political reasons but can afford to do so with such a domestic market. However, Carrie Lam and her successor John Lee, by wedding themselves to opening to China before the rest of the world have backed themselves into a corner that Hong Kong and CX, with the huge restrictions on transfer traffic, cannot afford. They probably never envisaged Beijing turning the country into the 21st century Forbidden Palace for as long as they are, and so still, there is limited travel across the border, even between Hong Kong and the mainland, let alone the wider world. Cuts in the quarantine period in Hong Kong did nothing to slow the net exodus from the territory as people view 'Asia's world city' as pretty much not open to the world, so why would it be different for China? Having quarantine really isn't practical for business or leisure, and now it's starting to bite the administration in HK. They can't switch track to opening to the world because of the loss of political face and backlash from Beijing, but it's been over two years with no free movement from a tiny territory dependent on international trade and expats are steaming out of the territory taking their jobs with them. Domestic China and its airlines have a domestic market it can insulate itself from during periods it doesn't have another locally imposed lock down, Hong Kong doesn't.

I fully agree with what you are saying.

HK Government just extend some load facility to CX as we speak. Billions more to support CX. I think there are still some form of movement trying to savage what left in HKG behind closed doors.

Now John Lee is settled, and the 25 years anniversary coming in July. My hope is that China may allow HKG to abandon Zero Covid mentality and be more relaxed and open after 1st July, as a reward for the Hong Kong 'loyalty' to elect a CCP LOVING figurehead. I don't think China has the financial muscle (and I don't think HKG has neither) to put HKG economy on life support for too long. Somehow I think HKG will be the first port of entry and will firstly open totally among Chinese cities, maybe not immediately in July but will be announced in July for September time frame.

What would be even more generous if that does happen, is for CCP government to allow foreign visitors to complete 3-7 days hotel quarantine in Hong Kong or Macau then enter China without any further quarantine requirement while holding both vaccination and PCR test certificate. That would be a huge improvement, and a back door China desperate needed to save face while try to revive economy in Greater China regions.

Sadly I am not confident that Chinese would do just that. There is a slim chance though. CCP needs to show the world that Hong Kong is not 'another Chinese city', back to the old days that HKG is still the back door for capitalist China might be the beginning, since mainland China can not eradicate the Zero Covid mentality in 1-2 years time to say the least. Hence my little hope that HKG and Macau will be rewarded by CCP to become a de facto quarantine free entry point for anyone who needs to visit China for a short period. Strange things have happened before. And I see this as the only way for CCP to maintain Zero Covid mentality domestically while open this back door to attract foreign capital as well as rewarding HKG and Macau for supporting CCP.

Make sense?

chonetsao wrote:

eurotrader85 wrote:

Another question is what will happen to CX and Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has backed himself into a nonsensical corner on Zero covid for political reasons but can afford to do so with such a domestic market. However, Carrie Lam and her successor John Lee, by wedding themselves to opening to China before the rest of the world have backed themselves into a corner that Hong Kong and CX, with the huge restrictions on transfer traffic, cannot afford. They probably never envisaged Beijing turning the country into the 21st century Forbidden Palace for as long as they are, and so still, there is limited travel across the border, even between Hong Kong and the mainland, let alone the wider world. Cuts in the quarantine period in Hong Kong did nothing to slow the net exodus from the territory as people view 'Asia's world city' as pretty much not open to the world, so why would it be different for China? Having quarantine really isn't practical for business or leisure, and now it's starting to bite the administration in HK. They can't switch track to opening to the world because of the loss of political face and backlash from Beijing, but it's been over two years with no free movement from a tiny territory dependent on international trade and expats are steaming out of the territory taking their jobs with them. Domestic China and its airlines have a domestic market it can insulate itself from during periods it doesn't have another locally imposed lock down, Hong Kong doesn't.

I fully agree with what you are saying.

HK Government just extend some load facility to CX as we speak. Billions more to support CX. I think there are still some form of movement trying to savage what left in HKG behind closed doors.

Now John Lee is settled, and the 25 years anniversary coming in July. My hope is that China may allow HKG to abandon Zero Covid mentality and be more relaxed and open after 1st July, as a reward for the Hong Kong 'loyalty' to elect a CCP LOVING figurehead. I don't think China has the financial muscle (and I don't think HKG has neither) to put HKG economy on life support for too long. Somehow I think HKG will be the first port of entry and will firstly open totally among Chinese cities, maybe not immediately in July but will be announced in July for September time frame.

What would be even more generous if that does happen, is for CCP government to allow foreign visitors to complete 3-7 days hotel quarantine in Hong Kong or Macau then enter China without any further quarantine requirement while holding both vaccination and PCR test certificate. That would be a huge improvement, and a back door China desperate needed to save face while try to revive economy in Greater China regions.

Sadly I am not confident that Chinese would do just that. There is a slim chance though. CCP needs to show the world that Hong Kong is not 'another Chinese city', back to the old days that HKG is still the back door for capitalist China might be the beginning, since mainland China can not eradicate the Zero Covid mentality in 1-2 years time to say the least. Hence my little hope that HKG and Macau will be rewarded by CCP to become a de facto quarantine free entry point for anyone who needs to visit China for a short period. Strange things have happened before. And I see this as the only way for CCP to maintain Zero Covid mentality domestically while open this back door to attract foreign capital as well as rewarding HKG and Macau for supporting CCP.

Make sense?

Hong Kong is to shorten the hotel quarantine period to 5 days.

But as for CCP to show "not another Chinese city", I don't thinl they want to do so now. Together with the natsec law they have repeatedly emphasized Hong Kong must be a Chinese city before it can be a world city.

Please remember to provide a link to your source when stating facts, thanks.

chonetsao wrote:

eurotrader85 wrote:

Another question is what will happen to CX and Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has backed himself into a nonsensical corner on Zero covid for political reasons but can afford to do so with such a domestic market. However, Carrie Lam and her successor John Lee, by wedding themselves to opening to China before the rest of the world have backed themselves into a corner that Hong Kong and CX, with the huge restrictions on transfer traffic, cannot afford. They probably never envisaged Beijing turning the country into the 21st century Forbidden Palace for as long as they are, and so still, there is limited travel across the border, even between Hong Kong and the mainland, let alone the wider world. Cuts in the quarantine period in Hong Kong did nothing to slow the net exodus from the territory as people view 'Asia's world city' as pretty much not open to the world, so why would it be different for China? Having quarantine really isn't practical for business or leisure, and now it's starting to bite the administration in HK. They can't switch track to opening to the world because of the loss of political face and backlash from Beijing, but it's been over two years with no free movement from a tiny territory dependent on international trade and expats are steaming out of the territory taking their jobs with them. Domestic China and its airlines have a domestic market it can insulate itself from during periods it doesn't have another locally imposed lock down, Hong Kong doesn't.

I fully agree with what you are saying.

HK Government just extend some load facility to CX as we speak. Billions more to support CX. I think there are still some form of movement trying to savage what left in HKG behind closed doors.

Now John Lee is settled, and the 25 years anniversary coming in July. My hope is that China may allow HKG to abandon Zero Covid mentality and be more relaxed and open after 1st July, as a reward for the Hong Kong 'loyalty' to elect a CCP LOVING figurehead. I don't think China has the financial muscle (and I don't think HKG has neither) to put HKG economy on life support for too long. Somehow I think HKG will be the first port of entry and will firstly open totally among Chinese cities, maybe not immediately in July but will be announced in July for September time frame.

What would be even more generous if that does happen, is for CCP government to allow foreign visitors to complete 3-7 days hotel quarantine in Hong Kong or Macau then enter China without any further quarantine requirement while holding both vaccination and PCR test certificate. That would be a huge improvement, and a back door China desperate needed to save face while try to revive economy in Greater China regions.

Sadly I am not confident that Chinese would do just that. There is a slim chance though. CCP needs to show the world that Hong Kong is not 'another Chinese city', back to the old days that HKG is still the back door for capitalist China might be the beginning, since mainland China can not eradicate the Zero Covid mentality in 1-2 years time to say the least. Hence my little hope that HKG and Macau will be rewarded by CCP to become a de facto quarantine free entry point for anyone who needs to visit China for a short period. Strange things have happened before. And I see this as the only way for CCP to maintain Zero Covid mentality domestically while open this back door to attract foreign capital as well as rewarding HKG and Macau for supporting CCP.

Make sense?

I was watching a Youtube videos of somebody going back to HK from USA. Right now prior to the relax in quarantine in mainland, you're actually seeing some mainlanders willing to go through 7 days quarantine in HK follow by another 14 (Soon to be 10) in mainland just b/c getting flights back to mainland especially from USA is nearly impossible.

For border opening - HK also literally just extend that stupid "social measures" to July 14th. To think John Lee and a change of regime will make a big change away from the idiotic "zero covid" policy is just daydreaming. What you may expect is that they'll imposed more idiotic measures in HK just to bootlick the mainland govt into maybe reopening the mainland border with minimal quarantines.

tl;dr: I doubt any changes will come soon. HKgov is a little bit less idiotic recently (i.e. they haven't lock down the city even though there are ~2000 daily cases right now...with 0 deaths) but ultimately will still prioritized mainland over everything else. Well, businesses are leaving to Singapore for good, and to me, good for those businesses.

I must say I've lost a lot of respect I didn't have for dictatorships, seeing they're totally unable to force vaccinate their population...

While I’m sure that this is way too reductionist of a view, but it seems like the zero Covid policy is being staunchly held onto as a matter of saving face. Is that possible though. Would the Chinese government basically destroy the lives of its citizens simply so they don’t have to admit they were wrong?

raylee67 wrote:

Several facts to consider when thinking about the question of when flights to China will resume:
1. The virus will continue to circulate and evolve unabated everywhere on Earth (excluding China) permanently

The virus IS circulating in most provinces of China right now. Anyone on Earth that believes otherwise is a lunatic who thinks man (or politicians) can exert control over an entity that is 100 nanometers in size. It's delusional and even if China shuts the borders even more than before, the virus will continue to flare up.

These policy changes make no sense to me at this point in time. I'm not endorsing the policies of excluding China from the world, they should have been ended a year ago, but the fact remains that they HAVE been far more successful at keeping the virus at bay, and that cannot be denied no matter how much you think they fudge statistics. They are not lying in that the virus has not spread rampant. So, with only a few months left until their major party congress, this move is surprising to me. And yes, it is really only a drop in the bucket and it's not really lifting restrictions much at all. So in human terms the change is negligible.

In virus terms however, it is opening wide open the doors. Because again, a virus just need an escape route of ONE carrier. It's a virus.

Aesma wrote:

I must say I've lost a lot of respect I didn't have for dictatorships, seeing they're totally unable to force vaccinate their population...

Speaking of vaccine to this day AFAIK China still doesn't have any mRNA vax, only "Inactivated Virus" vax (i.e. Sinovac). The efficacy of the latter had been shown to be, well, not all that great.

CometII wrote:

raylee67 wrote:

Several facts to consider when thinking about the question of when flights to China will resume:
1. The virus will continue to circulate and evolve unabated everywhere on Earth (excluding China) permanently

The virus IS circulating in most provinces of China right now. Anyone on Earth that believes otherwise is a lunatic who thinks man (or politicians) can exert control over an entity that is 100 nanometers in size. It's delusional and even if China shuts the borders even more than before, the virus will continue to flare up.

These policy changes make no sense to me at this point in time. I'm not endorsing the policies of excluding China from the world, they should have been ended a year ago, but the fact remains that they HAVE been far more successful at keeping the virus at bay, and that cannot be denied no matter how much you think they fudge statistics. They are not lying in that the virus has not spread rampant. So, with only a few months left until their major party congress, this move is surprising to me. And yes, it is really only a drop in the bucket and it's not really lifting restrictions much at all. So in human terms the change is negligible.

In virus terms however, it is opening wide open the doors. Because again, a virus just need an escape route of ONE carrier. It's a virus.

And as HK and later Shanghai show, all restriction does is delaying the inevitable and when things hit, it hit hard. There is a reason why countries more or less are just going "let it rip".

CometII wrote:

raylee67 wrote:

Several facts to consider when thinking about the question of when flights to China will resume:
1. The virus will continue to circulate and evolve unabated everywhere on Earth (excluding China) permanently

The virus IS circulating in most provinces of China right now. Anyone on Earth that believes otherwise is a lunatic who thinks man (or politicians) can exert control over an entity that is 100 nanometers in size. It's delusional and even if China shuts the borders even more than before, the virus will continue to flare up.

Yep it's there for sure. I am just saying "excluding China" because that's the basis of what the regime is doing. If they acknowledge that it's there, then there is no more basis of their "superiority". In any case, my point is there is no going back. They just can't. Airlines should forget about resuming meaningful service to China, and I think to some extent, most Western airlines have already moved on. After all, it has never been a large part of their business, although a lucrative one.

zakuivcustom wrote:

[And as HK and later Shanghai show, all restriction does is delaying the inevitable and when things hit, it hit hard. There is a reason why countries more or less are just going "let it rip".

Yes, HK is a very strong example. Similar population, but more densely housed, to NSW Australia, but a Covid death rate significantly higher than "open" NSW, even with the HK lockdown.

SYD used to see around a dozen mainland flights daily. 3 flights daily from HK. CX has recently announced upgrading to two, but most of the few services from the mainland (Southern, Eastern, Xiamen and Air China) are cargo.

The Chinese regime is happy that there are no more long noses traveling to China. Simple as that.

This, along with the general rethink of globalization, shipping rates exploding, Chinese ports shut down on a whim, China siding with Russia, general hostility towards China, will surely have massive consequences long term. We'll see if the CCP can stay in power when China has to rely on its internal market, with much reduced trade from the West, and 0 investment.

Aesma wrote:

This, along with the general rethink of globalization, shipping rates exploding, Chinese ports shut down on a whim, China siding with Russia, general hostility towards China, will surely have massive consequences long term. We'll see if the CCP can stay in power when China has to rely on its internal market, with much reduced trade from the West, and 0 investment.

So far all the "west" does is going through the pain of supply chain mess, inflation (partially due to price increasing due to that supply chain mess among other things), but not really reducing their reliance on China (especially USA). Of course, long term I can only hope that a country like USA finally wake up...

Of course, it's really hard to say how good or bad China economy really is right now as the government will just fudge data. An economic recession is definitely going to ripple politically, though, and perhaps that would kick Xinnie out? One of the reason why Tiananmen got so big back in 1989 was that Chinese economy was in a bad shape. CCP basically focused on economy at the expense of pretty much everything else since then - but will this be the moment that they finally can't do that any longer? God knows.

Guys, it has nothing to do with tourism or business travel. The 7+3 is in response to Omicron's shorter incubation period, and the elimination of PU letters was probably done because they didn't actually prevent covid. The government hasn't even started issuing tourist visas yet.

Looks like Zero Covid will remain in the PRC for the foreseeable future. Xi is doubling down, saying it’s effective and is willing to risk economic growth. So, it doesn’t look like we will see a meaningful opening of their borders for quite some time.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-z ... nue-2022-6

Since this thread started its life in the civil aviation section, may I ask if there are any pictures of all the CA aircraft that are obviously stored right now? I wanted to ask this right at the beginning but didn’t make it in due time before this thread was moved to the non-av section…

My thought is the current policy extends through November after the big party meeting. Then I would say spring 2023 is the start of a general opening up.

Of course they’ll just do what a lot o other countries have done and not test, and that way they can say Covid was never a big issue. Can’t have lots of Covid if you don’t test for it!

leader1 wrote:

Looks like Zero Covid will remain in the PRC for the foreseeable future. Xi is doubling down, saying it’s effective and is willing to risk economic growth.

I wouldn't be so sure. It is easy for him to say but there is a real turn in public opinions with regard to lock down. This has severely curtailed freedom of movement and produced a shock to Chinese economy. There are reports of public servants taking a pay cut of 20-40%. This is the biggest challenge the Chinese government has faced over the past 30 years. If this keeps going for another year or even 6 months Xi will run the risk of being dumped. He won't last 5 years locking the country down.

Cerecl wrote:

leader1 wrote:

Looks like Zero Covid will remain in the PRC for the foreseeable future. Xi is doubling down, saying it’s effective and is willing to risk economic growth.

I wouldn't be so sure. It is easy for him to say but there is a real turn in public opinions with regard to lock down. This has severely curtailed freedom of movement and produced a shock to Chinese economy. There are reports of public servants taking a pay cut of 20-40%. This is the biggest challenge the Chinese government has faced over the past 30 years. If this keeps going for another year or even 6 months Xi will run the risk of being dumped. He won't last 5 years locking the country down.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... ng/620526/
To people like Xi, downward economy might not be undesired.

Cerecl wrote:

leader1 wrote:

Looks like Zero Covid will remain in the PRC for the foreseeable future. Xi is doubling down, saying it’s effective and is willing to risk economic growth.

I wouldn't be so sure. It is easy for him to say but there is a real turn in public opinions with regard to lock down. This has severely curtailed freedom of movement and produced a shock to Chinese economy. There are reports of public servants taking a pay cut of 20-40%. This is the biggest challenge the Chinese government has faced over the past 30 years. If this keeps going for another year or even 6 months Xi will run the risk of being dumped. He won't last 5 years locking the country down.

Has there been any instance where he has backed down on any of his proclamations? So sure is Xi's belief in himself that it is his tendency is to double down and go forward. He's still popular in China, so regardless of any perceived change in public opinion, the wider populace will back him.

Also, the public servant pay cut took place in late December/January, well before the recent lockdowns. Chinese civil servants are paid in two parts - base salary and merit/welfare/subsidy/etc. bonus. The latter varies based on location, how well each province is doing, etc. Base salaries have not been touched, but the performance bonuses have been cut and from what I have read, they've mostly been cut in high cost locations, like Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, etc. And much of this is due to slowness in the real estate sector, which is how local governments get a lot of their revenue. Furthermore, Xi is intent on increasing the state's role in the economy. He's got to fund this somehow and slashing bonuses is good a way to start.

chonetsao wrote:

Many people see the 7+3 as an improvement.

But realistically speaking, it is not enough to encourage international leisure traffic. Maybe some ethical Chinese who now feel more at ease to visit friends and families. However, what if the city they are visiting suddenly decide to shut down again? What if someone got checked as Covid patient in quarantine?

Reopen? No. Relaxing previous measure? Yes. We are still a long way from reopening! Someone suggested October. I am afraid that is overly optimistic. I used to think like that until late 2020. Following the Peking Mayor stating the next five years few days ago, I now believe the restriction is to stay until at least spring of 2023. Maybe we revisit this thread again next year!

I read in the news that they just banned Thai Airways, Emirates and Qatar Airways. Great way to promote air traffic! I love Hong Kong but there's no way I'd consider going there right now. At the whim of the CCP, your flight can be cancelled and on arrival you have to pay to be locked up indoors at an expensive hotel for a week. Hong Kong was never cheap and most people made relatively short trips or stopovers. It makes zero sense to do that now.

If the city still had genuine independence and was able to make its own policies, there's no way they'd be doing any of this craziness. It's totally pointless as it won't keep the virus out and all it does is ruin the local economy and the city's reputation. Even when they do open up with the permission of Winnie the Pooh, they'll probably still have some crazy nonsense that will cause most people to avoid the place for a long time. To do otherwise would be admit that the CCP was wrong.

leader1 wrote:

Has there been any instance where he has backed down on any of his proclamations? So sure is Xi's belief in himself that it is his tendency is to double down and go forward. He's still popular in China, so regardless of any perceived change in public opinion, the wider populace will back hm

There is more than a rumour that his position is not secure as the economy is going down the drain. I am not sure why you think the wider populace will support him. Older people may, out of fear for COVID but younger people want certainty in life and won't tolerate a shrinking wallet for too long. Whether one is in Shanghai or is in the middle of nowhere is irrelevant if they take such a substantial hit to their income. It is really hard to live a $500 life if you are used to a $800 life.

peterinlisbon wrote:

I read in the news that they just banned Thai Airways, Emirates and Qatar Airways. Great way to promote air traffic! To do otherwise would be admit that the CCP was wrong.

Not sure if you are referring to HK or mainland China but they are not "banning" any airline. There is a "meltdown" mechanism by which a flight/route (not airline) from which COVID-19 cases are detected, is not allowed to operate for a period, the length of which depends on the number of COVID-19 positive cases from that flight. Obviously the goal is NOT to promote air traffic, but to minimise imported COVID cases.
If China changes its policy it doesn't need to admit wrong doing at all. Something like "new viral strain, new situation, new solution" would do. People will be too happy they get their life back to care about any admissions

I'd really like to visit Shanghai...I'd even quarantine 3 days to do it. I'm eagerly awaiting the reopening.

Cerecl wrote:

peterinlisbon wrote:

I read in the news that they just banned Thai Airways, Emirates and Qatar Airways. Great way to promote air traffic! To do otherwise would be admit that the CCP was wrong.

Not sure if you are referring to HK or mainland China but they are not "banning" any airline. There is a "meltdown" mechanism by which a flight/route (not airline) from which COVID-19 cases are detected, is not allowed to operate for a period, the length of which depends on the number of COVID-19 positive cases from that flight. Obviously the goal is NOT to promote air traffic, but to minimise imported COVID cases.
If China changes its policy it doesn't need to admit wrong doing at all. Something like "new viral strain, new situation, new solution" would do. People will be too happy they get their life back to care about any admissions

Well, HK is ending that flight suspension BS...for now.

https://hongkongfp.com/2022/07/07/break ... this-year/

Of course, it's also time for all those children of pro-CCP lawmakers to return to HK for summer vacation. Coincidence? I don't think so .

Either way, imported COVID cases when it's getting back to 3000 cases a day in HK (Not that the actual number really means anything when deaths are at something like 4-5 each WEEK). At least it's not mainland where they're shutting things down (again) over <100 cases...

[twoid][/twoid]

Cerecl wrote:

leader1 wrote:

Has there been any instance where he has backed down on any of his proclamations? So sure is Xi's belief in himself that it is his tendency is to double down and go forward. He's still popular in China, so regardless of any perceived change in public opinion, the wider populace will back hm

There is more than a rumour that his position is not secure as the economy is going down the drain. I am not sure why you think the wider populace will support him. Older people may, out of fear for COVID but younger people want certainty in life and won't tolerate a shrinking wallet for too long. Whether one is in Shanghai or is in the middle of nowhere is irrelevant if they take such a substantial hit to their income. It is really hard to live a $500 life if you are used to a $800 life.

I truly hope you are right, but everything I have read and heard suggests that his position is most likely secure and he does enjoy widespread support. Polls in China are unreliable, but the CCP controls virtually all sources of information and the population only hears nothing but effusive praise of Xi. Even on my WeChat feed, most people are pretty supportive of him and the zero Covid policy, especially when fed information about how chaotic it has been outside China. And my WeChat feed mostly consists of urbane and educated Chinese nationals, many have lived outside of China before. Heck, one friend of mine on my feed is this Western educated Chinese girl living in Shanghai who only dates White guys (yes, one of “those”), but she still backs zero Covid. She wasn’t in Shanghai at the time of the lockdown, so perhaps her perspective would have been different if she experienced it, but still…if anyone would have criticized it, it would be her and she still backed it.

Regarding the civil servants, they might not be happy, but Xi has been pushing shared sacrifice the last few years. Again, remains to be seen, but I really do hope you’re right. However I have enough experience with China to make me a bit skeptical.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... lic-outcry
City of Beijing step back on vaccine mandate.

leader1 wrote:

[twoid][/twoid]

Cerecl wrote:

leader1 wrote:

Has there been any instance where he has backed down on any of his proclamations? So sure is Xi's belief in himself that it is his tendency is to double down and go forward. He's still popular in China, so regardless of any perceived change in public opinion, the wider populace will back hm

There is more than a rumour that his position is not secure as the economy is going down the drain. I am not sure why you think the wider populace will support him. Older people may, out of fear for COVID but younger people want certainty in life and won't tolerate a shrinking wallet for too long. Whether one is in Shanghai or is in the middle of nowhere is irrelevant if they take such a substantial hit to their income. It is really hard to live a $500 life if you are used to a $800 life.

I truly hope you are right, but everything I have read and heard suggests that his position is most likely secure and he does enjoy widespread support. Polls in China are unreliable, but the CCP controls virtually all sources of information and the population only hears nothing but effusive praise of Xi. Even on my WeChat feed, most people are pretty supportive of him and the zero Covid policy, especially when fed information about how chaotic it has been outside China. And my WeChat feed mostly consists of urbane and educated Chinese nationals, many have lived outside of China before. Heck, one friend of mine on my feed is this Western educated Chinese girl living in Shanghai who only dates White guys (yes, one of “those”), but she still backs zero Covid. She wasn’t in Shanghai at the time of the lockdown, so perhaps her perspective would have been different if she experienced it, but still…if anyone would have criticized it, it would be her and she still backed it.

Regarding the civil servants, they might not be happy, but Xi has been pushing shared sacrifice the last few years. Again, remains to be seen, but I really do hope you’re right. However I have enough experience with China to make me a bit skeptical.

Weibo/Weixin is not a good place to garner true opinions as they are well known to be censored and monitored. In my experience younger Chinese people while not political, are much more aware of their rights as individuals. The "sacrifice yourself for the country" mantra of the past century is not going to go well now.

TV news: Macau is going to close up for a week starting from Monday. Essential services, including 1.) power and water and gas supply, 2.) medical and logistic service provider and hotels and property management, and 3.) markets and supermarkets and restaurants (take out only) will be exempted, while all other business and commerce are ordered to be closed. People can still go outdoor, but they have to wear KN95 or equivalent grade masks, including N95. Unadulted can wear other masks if they cannot find suitable masks. These measure will be reviewed after a week, to determine whether their strictness need to increase or decrease.

TV News: Hong Kong government considering upgrade the mandatory contact tracing + vaccine pass app, users will be required to link their identity to the app, and red/yellow/green code will be introduced like China Mainland and Macau's health code system, in order to block infected or high risk individuals from high risk venues, and justify this by saying infected individuals are minority and minority cannot be allowed to threaten the freedom of majority.
It's also said to push normalization of coronavirus testing, requiring once or twice a week, or testing every 72 or 48 hours for high risk venues.
They claim these are also important for Hong Kong to be open up toward China Mainland.

This is a great topic one that I know a little about.

I don’t think we will see regularly schedule commercial flights to China any time soon. This reason has to do with the Zero Covid Policy.

China’s government is caught in a difficult position because their Covid vaccines are ineffective. Given the inability of accessing mass quantities of foreign made vaccines, the government is faced with developing a new mRNA vaccine which is expected in a few years.

In the meantime, in order to control mass spread of Covid amongst their improperly vaccinated population, the country is forced into a zero Covid policy that I don’t see going away until they are able to get that new vaccine developed and distributed to their population.

As a means of controlling the spread, I don’t see them opening up their skies to common commercial flights any time soon.

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/ ... 220711.htm
Further report on Hong Kong government's attempt to turn contacting tracing and vaccine pass app into a health code revealed that, Hong Kong government plan to apply "Yellow Code" to any inbound travellers who have finished quarantine but are still in "self health monitor" period, barring them from "high risk" places like restaurant.
Which mean travellers will need to wait 14 days before they can enter amy restaurants in Hong Kong despite rumored proposal to shorten quarantine to e.g. 5 days.
He also claim that people confused being selfish with freedom.

Mainland China might also try similar approach if they ultimately "reopen" I guess?

Recent variants of COVId have been far less severe, and quite comparable to an ordinary cold and flu. Even with the less effective vaccines. So I don't get what China has to lose if they reopen and people get infected with mild cases of COVID. Everybody will get a cold-like illness and then recover.

It's not like 2 years ago, where we saw folks dying or being hospitalized en mass.

acavpics wrote:

Recent variants of COVId have been far less severe, and quite comparable to an ordinary cold and flu. Even with the less effective vaccines. So I don't get what China has to lose if they reopen and people get infected with mild cases of COVID. Everybody will get a cold-like illness and then recover.

It's not like 2 years ago, where we saw folks dying or being hospitalized en mass.

A problem to Chinese government if they open up is that people will be able to move around freely.

It's simply the size of the population. A small percentage is still a large number

cskok8 wrote:

It's simply the size of the population. A small percentage is still a large number

If a problem is too large, divide and conquer the problem. Each province in China are just roughly the same size as a middle sized country in term of number of population, if you treat each of those provinces individually.

Larnaca wrote:

This is a great topic one that I know a little about.

I don’t think we will see regularly schedule commercial flights to China any time soon. This reason has to do with the Zero Covid Policy.

China’s government is caught in a difficult position because their Covid vaccines are ineffective. Given the inability of accessing mass quantities of foreign made vaccines, the government is faced with developing a new mRNA vaccine which is expected in a few years.

In the meantime, in order to control mass spread of Covid amongst their improperly vaccinated population, the country is forced into a zero Covid policy that I don’t see going away until they are able to get that new vaccine developed and distributed to their population.

As a means of controlling the spread, I don’t see them opening up their skies to common commercial flights any time soon.

They could buy Western vaccines, it's not a question of ability but of willingness. They'd rather crash their economy than lose face by buying foreign made vaccines, it's ridiculous.