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Cerecl wrote:Thank you for starting this thread. Nothing will be decided until at least the 20th CCP National Conference in October this year. This is the conference to decide the leadership group in the next 5 years. If Xi gets his 3rd term, the "reopening" is going to be a trickle. Having said that the Chinese embassies have recently resumed issuing business and compassionate visas, hopefully this is the start of a torrent instead.
There have been international passenger flights from and to China during the pandemic. They are just limited to once weekly by and large. Far from lack of booking the demand is so inappropriately met the airlines are able to charge exorbitant prices.
raylee67 wrote:Several facts to consider when thinking about the question of when flights to China will resume:
1. The virus will continue to circulate and evolve unabated everywhere on Earth (excluding China) permanently
2. To maintain zero-COVID within the country, if the virus starts to spread in the community, the only way is to impose severe lockdown (similar to what Shanghai went through for 3 months from Apr to Jun)
3. If there is no existing community spread of the virus and the virus is spreading widely outside of the border, then the only way to prevent a community spread from starting is to stop the virus from crossing the border
4. Lockdown is extremely costly (as demonstrated in Shanghai) and thus it is only a measure to be taken if there is no other choice
5. Chairman Xi has said it publicly himself (and the speech was broadcasted and published in media) that the high toll of death in the West by the virus is a proof that the Chinese political system and value is superior to the liberal democratic political system and value. And this concept has been sold to the public in China by the propaganda machine of the Party. The zero-COVID policy is therefore the cornerstone to maintain this proof of "superiority" and that Chinese people are living in the "Communist Paradise"
So, to maintain that "proof", the least costly way is to make sure the virus does not get into China and start a community spread. And since the proof needs to be permanently maintained (otherwise, the system is not superior any more at the exact time when the proof is broken), China cannot reasonably relax any travel restriction. They got themselves into this place by going so far and say that zero-COVID is a proof that they are better than US. How would you expect a strongman like Xi walk back on a speech like this that he said it himself? If it's from a lower ranking official, then they can walk back, but not if it's from the Supreme Leader.
I don't expect any meaningful relaxation of travel restriction and resumption of normal flights until Xi leaves his post and no longer exert influence. When is it going to happen? Only God knows.
chunhimlai wrote:China cuts quarantine time for international pax from 21 to 10 days
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-contacts
peterinlisbon wrote:chunhimlai wrote:China cuts quarantine time for international pax from 21 to 10 days
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-contacts
That's an improvement, but its still a virtual prison sentence on arrival. And then I think to travel around the country there are all kinds of complicated and unpredictable restrictions, with the risk of being locked up and sent to a "facility" at any time. I think I'll give it a miss.
chonetsao wrote:Many people see the 7+3 as an improvement.
But realistically speaking, it is not enough to encourage international leisure traffic. Maybe some ethical Chinese who now feel more at ease to visit friends and families. However, what if the city they are visiting suddenly decide to shut down again? What if someone got checked as Covid patient in quarantine?
Reopen? No. Relaxing previous measure? Yes. We are still a long way from reopening! Someone suggested October. I am afraid that is overly optimistic. I used to think like that until late 2020. Following the Peking Mayor stating the next five years few days ago, I now believe the restriction is to stay until at least spring of 2023. Maybe we revisit this thread again next year!
eurotrader85 wrote:Another question is what will happen to CX and Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has backed himself into a nonsensical corner on Zero covid for political reasons but can afford to do so with such a domestic market. However, Carrie Lam and her successor John Lee, by wedding themselves to opening to China before the rest of the world have backed themselves into a corner that Hong Kong and CX, with the huge restrictions on transfer traffic, cannot afford. They probably never envisaged Beijing turning the country into the 21st century Forbidden Palace for as long as they are, and so still, there is limited travel across the border, even between Hong Kong and the mainland, let alone the wider world. Cuts in the quarantine period in Hong Kong did nothing to slow the net exodus from the territory as people view 'Asia's world city' as pretty much not open to the world, so why would it be different for China? Having quarantine really isn't practical for business or leisure, and now it's starting to bite the administration in HK. They can't switch track to opening to the world because of the loss of political face and backlash from Beijing, but it's been over two years with no free movement from a tiny territory dependent on international trade and expats are steaming out of the territory taking their jobs with them. Domestic China and its airlines have a domestic market it can insulate itself from during periods it doesn't have another locally imposed lock down, Hong Kong doesn't.
chonetsao wrote:eurotrader85 wrote:Another question is what will happen to CX and Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has backed himself into a nonsensical corner on Zero covid for political reasons but can afford to do so with such a domestic market. However, Carrie Lam and her successor John Lee, by wedding themselves to opening to China before the rest of the world have backed themselves into a corner that Hong Kong and CX, with the huge restrictions on transfer traffic, cannot afford. They probably never envisaged Beijing turning the country into the 21st century Forbidden Palace for as long as they are, and so still, there is limited travel across the border, even between Hong Kong and the mainland, let alone the wider world. Cuts in the quarantine period in Hong Kong did nothing to slow the net exodus from the territory as people view 'Asia's world city' as pretty much not open to the world, so why would it be different for China? Having quarantine really isn't practical for business or leisure, and now it's starting to bite the administration in HK. They can't switch track to opening to the world because of the loss of political face and backlash from Beijing, but it's been over two years with no free movement from a tiny territory dependent on international trade and expats are steaming out of the territory taking their jobs with them. Domestic China and its airlines have a domestic market it can insulate itself from during periods it doesn't have another locally imposed lock down, Hong Kong doesn't.
I fully agree with what you are saying.
HK Government just extend some load facility to CX as we speak. Billions more to support CX. I think there are still some form of movement trying to savage what left in HKG behind closed doors.
Now John Lee is settled, and the 25 years anniversary coming in July. My hope is that China may allow HKG to abandon Zero Covid mentality and be more relaxed and open after 1st July, as a reward for the Hong Kong 'loyalty' to elect a CCP LOVING figurehead. I don't think China has the financial muscle (and I don't think HKG has neither) to put HKG economy on life support for too long. Somehow I think HKG will be the first port of entry and will firstly open totally among Chinese cities, maybe not immediately in July but will be announced in July for September time frame.
What would be even more generous if that does happen, is for CCP government to allow foreign visitors to complete 3-7 days hotel quarantine in Hong Kong or Macau then enter China without any further quarantine requirement while holding both vaccination and PCR test certificate. That would be a huge improvement, and a back door China desperate needed to save face while try to revive economy in Greater China regions.
Sadly I am not confident that Chinese would do just that. There is a slim chance though. CCP needs to show the world that Hong Kong is not 'another Chinese city', back to the old days that HKG is still the back door for capitalist China might be the beginning, since mainland China can not eradicate the Zero Covid mentality in 1-2 years time to say the least. Hence my little hope that HKG and Macau will be rewarded by CCP to become a de facto quarantine free entry point for anyone who needs to visit China for a short period. Strange things have happened before. And I see this as the only way for CCP to maintain Zero Covid mentality domestically while open this back door to attract foreign capital as well as rewarding HKG and Macau for supporting CCP.
Make sense?
chonetsao wrote:eurotrader85 wrote:Another question is what will happen to CX and Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has backed himself into a nonsensical corner on Zero covid for political reasons but can afford to do so with such a domestic market. However, Carrie Lam and her successor John Lee, by wedding themselves to opening to China before the rest of the world have backed themselves into a corner that Hong Kong and CX, with the huge restrictions on transfer traffic, cannot afford. They probably never envisaged Beijing turning the country into the 21st century Forbidden Palace for as long as they are, and so still, there is limited travel across the border, even between Hong Kong and the mainland, let alone the wider world. Cuts in the quarantine period in Hong Kong did nothing to slow the net exodus from the territory as people view 'Asia's world city' as pretty much not open to the world, so why would it be different for China? Having quarantine really isn't practical for business or leisure, and now it's starting to bite the administration in HK. They can't switch track to opening to the world because of the loss of political face and backlash from Beijing, but it's been over two years with no free movement from a tiny territory dependent on international trade and expats are steaming out of the territory taking their jobs with them. Domestic China and its airlines have a domestic market it can insulate itself from during periods it doesn't have another locally imposed lock down, Hong Kong doesn't.
I fully agree with what you are saying.
HK Government just extend some load facility to CX as we speak. Billions more to support CX. I think there are still some form of movement trying to savage what left in HKG behind closed doors.
Now John Lee is settled, and the 25 years anniversary coming in July. My hope is that China may allow HKG to abandon Zero Covid mentality and be more relaxed and open after 1st July, as a reward for the Hong Kong 'loyalty' to elect a CCP LOVING figurehead. I don't think China has the financial muscle (and I don't think HKG has neither) to put HKG economy on life support for too long. Somehow I think HKG will be the first port of entry and will firstly open totally among Chinese cities, maybe not immediately in July but will be announced in July for September time frame.
What would be even more generous if that does happen, is for CCP government to allow foreign visitors to complete 3-7 days hotel quarantine in Hong Kong or Macau then enter China without any further quarantine requirement while holding both vaccination and PCR test certificate. That would be a huge improvement, and a back door China desperate needed to save face while try to revive economy in Greater China regions.
Sadly I am not confident that Chinese would do just that. There is a slim chance though. CCP needs to show the world that Hong Kong is not 'another Chinese city', back to the old days that HKG is still the back door for capitalist China might be the beginning, since mainland China can not eradicate the Zero Covid mentality in 1-2 years time to say the least. Hence my little hope that HKG and Macau will be rewarded by CCP to become a de facto quarantine free entry point for anyone who needs to visit China for a short period. Strange things have happened before. And I see this as the only way for CCP to maintain Zero Covid mentality domestically while open this back door to attract foreign capital as well as rewarding HKG and Macau for supporting CCP.
Make sense?
raylee67 wrote:Several facts to consider when thinking about the question of when flights to China will resume:
1. The virus will continue to circulate and evolve unabated everywhere on Earth (excluding China) permanently
Aesma wrote:I must say I've lost a lot of respect I didn't have for dictatorships, seeing they're totally unable to force vaccinate their population...
CometII wrote:raylee67 wrote:Several facts to consider when thinking about the question of when flights to China will resume:
1. The virus will continue to circulate and evolve unabated everywhere on Earth (excluding China) permanently
The virus IS circulating in most provinces of China right now. Anyone on Earth that believes otherwise is a lunatic who thinks man (or politicians) can exert control over an entity that is 100 nanometers in size. It's delusional and even if China shuts the borders even more than before, the virus will continue to flare up.
These policy changes make no sense to me at this point in time. I'm not endorsing the policies of excluding China from the world, they should have been ended a year ago, but the fact remains that they HAVE been far more successful at keeping the virus at bay, and that cannot be denied no matter how much you think they fudge statistics. They are not lying in that the virus has not spread rampant. So, with only a few months left until their major party congress, this move is surprising to me. And yes, it is really only a drop in the bucket and it's not really lifting restrictions much at all. So in human terms the change is negligible.
In virus terms however, it is opening wide open the doors. Because again, a virus just need an escape route of ONE carrier. It's a virus.
CometII wrote:raylee67 wrote:Several facts to consider when thinking about the question of when flights to China will resume:
1. The virus will continue to circulate and evolve unabated everywhere on Earth (excluding China) permanently
The virus IS circulating in most provinces of China right now. Anyone on Earth that believes otherwise is a lunatic who thinks man (or politicians) can exert control over an entity that is 100 nanometers in size. It's delusional and even if China shuts the borders even more than before, the virus will continue to flare up.
zakuivcustom wrote:[And as HK and later Shanghai show, all restriction does is delaying the inevitable and when things hit, it hit hard. There is a reason why countries more or less are just going "let it rip".
Aesma wrote:This, along with the general rethink of globalization, shipping rates exploding, Chinese ports shut down on a whim, China siding with Russia, general hostility towards China, will surely have massive consequences long term. We'll see if the CCP can stay in power when China has to rely on its internal market, with much reduced trade from the West, and 0 investment.
leader1 wrote:Looks like Zero Covid will remain in the PRC for the foreseeable future. Xi is doubling down, saying it’s effective and is willing to risk economic growth.
Cerecl wrote:leader1 wrote:Looks like Zero Covid will remain in the PRC for the foreseeable future. Xi is doubling down, saying it’s effective and is willing to risk economic growth.
I wouldn't be so sure. It is easy for him to say but there is a real turn in public opinions with regard to lock down. This has severely curtailed freedom of movement and produced a shock to Chinese economy. There are reports of public servants taking a pay cut of 20-40%. This is the biggest challenge the Chinese government has faced over the past 30 years. If this keeps going for another year or even 6 months Xi will run the risk of being dumped. He won't last 5 years locking the country down.
Cerecl wrote:leader1 wrote:Looks like Zero Covid will remain in the PRC for the foreseeable future. Xi is doubling down, saying it’s effective and is willing to risk economic growth.
I wouldn't be so sure. It is easy for him to say but there is a real turn in public opinions with regard to lock down. This has severely curtailed freedom of movement and produced a shock to Chinese economy. There are reports of public servants taking a pay cut of 20-40%. This is the biggest challenge the Chinese government has faced over the past 30 years. If this keeps going for another year or even 6 months Xi will run the risk of being dumped. He won't last 5 years locking the country down.
chonetsao wrote:Many people see the 7+3 as an improvement.
But realistically speaking, it is not enough to encourage international leisure traffic. Maybe some ethical Chinese who now feel more at ease to visit friends and families. However, what if the city they are visiting suddenly decide to shut down again? What if someone got checked as Covid patient in quarantine?
Reopen? No. Relaxing previous measure? Yes. We are still a long way from reopening! Someone suggested October. I am afraid that is overly optimistic. I used to think like that until late 2020. Following the Peking Mayor stating the next five years few days ago, I now believe the restriction is to stay until at least spring of 2023. Maybe we revisit this thread again next year!
leader1 wrote:Has there been any instance where he has backed down on any of his proclamations? So sure is Xi's belief in himself that it is his tendency is to double down and go forward. He's still popular in China, so regardless of any perceived change in public opinion, the wider populace will back hm
peterinlisbon wrote:I read in the news that they just banned Thai Airways, Emirates and Qatar Airways. Great way to promote air traffic! To do otherwise would be admit that the CCP was wrong.
Cerecl wrote:peterinlisbon wrote:I read in the news that they just banned Thai Airways, Emirates and Qatar Airways. Great way to promote air traffic! To do otherwise would be admit that the CCP was wrong.
Not sure if you are referring to HK or mainland China but they are not "banning" any airline. There is a "meltdown" mechanism by which a flight/route (not airline) from which COVID-19 cases are detected, is not allowed to operate for a period, the length of which depends on the number of COVID-19 positive cases from that flight. Obviously the goal is NOT to promote air traffic, but to minimise imported COVID cases.
If China changes its policy it doesn't need to admit wrong doing at all. Something like "new viral strain, new situation, new solution" would do. People will be too happy they get their life back to care about any admissions
Cerecl wrote:leader1 wrote:Has there been any instance where he has backed down on any of his proclamations? So sure is Xi's belief in himself that it is his tendency is to double down and go forward. He's still popular in China, so regardless of any perceived change in public opinion, the wider populace will back hm
There is more than a rumour that his position is not secure as the economy is going down the drain. I am not sure why you think the wider populace will support him. Older people may, out of fear for COVID but younger people want certainty in life and won't tolerate a shrinking wallet for too long. Whether one is in Shanghai or is in the middle of nowhere is irrelevant if they take such a substantial hit to their income. It is really hard to live a $500 life if you are used to a $800 life.
leader1 wrote:[twoid][/twoid]Cerecl wrote:leader1 wrote:Has there been any instance where he has backed down on any of his proclamations? So sure is Xi's belief in himself that it is his tendency is to double down and go forward. He's still popular in China, so regardless of any perceived change in public opinion, the wider populace will back hm
There is more than a rumour that his position is not secure as the economy is going down the drain. I am not sure why you think the wider populace will support him. Older people may, out of fear for COVID but younger people want certainty in life and won't tolerate a shrinking wallet for too long. Whether one is in Shanghai or is in the middle of nowhere is irrelevant if they take such a substantial hit to their income. It is really hard to live a $500 life if you are used to a $800 life.
I truly hope you are right, but everything I have read and heard suggests that his position is most likely secure and he does enjoy widespread support. Polls in China are unreliable, but the CCP controls virtually all sources of information and the population only hears nothing but effusive praise of Xi. Even on my WeChat feed, most people are pretty supportive of him and the zero Covid policy, especially when fed information about how chaotic it has been outside China. And my WeChat feed mostly consists of urbane and educated Chinese nationals, many have lived outside of China before. Heck, one friend of mine on my feed is this Western educated Chinese girl living in Shanghai who only dates White guys (yes, one of “those”), but she still backs zero Covid. She wasn’t in Shanghai at the time of the lockdown, so perhaps her perspective would have been different if she experienced it, but still…if anyone would have criticized it, it would be her and she still backed it.
Regarding the civil servants, they might not be happy, but Xi has been pushing shared sacrifice the last few years. Again, remains to be seen, but I really do hope you’re right. However I have enough experience with China to make me a bit skeptical.
acavpics wrote:Recent variants of COVId have been far less severe, and quite comparable to an ordinary cold and flu. Even with the less effective vaccines. So I don't get what China has to lose if they reopen and people get infected with mild cases of COVID. Everybody will get a cold-like illness and then recover.
It's not like 2 years ago, where we saw folks dying or being hospitalized en mass.
cskok8 wrote:It's simply the size of the population. A small percentage is still a large number
Larnaca wrote:This is a great topic one that I know a little about.
I don’t think we will see regularly schedule commercial flights to China any time soon. This reason has to do with the Zero Covid Policy.
China’s government is caught in a difficult position because their Covid vaccines are ineffective. Given the inability of accessing mass quantities of foreign made vaccines, the government is faced with developing a new mRNA vaccine which is expected in a few years.
In the meantime, in order to control mass spread of Covid amongst their improperly vaccinated population, the country is forced into a zero Covid policy that I don’t see going away until they are able to get that new vaccine developed and distributed to their population.
As a means of controlling the spread, I don’t see them opening up their skies to common commercial flights any time soon.