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johns624
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:42 pm

art wrote:
The 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration had set the conditions under which Hong Kong was to be transferred, with China agreeing to maintain existing structures of government and economy under a principle of "one country, two systems" for a period of 50 years.
- Wiki

Did China keep to the agreement? No. Unfortunately that means any subsequent agreement that China might try to broker with Taiwan for it to return to the 'mother country' would hold no credibility. China would need to attack and overwhelm Taiwan to get it back.

I think it is a good idea that Pelosi visits Taiwan. It signals support for Taiwan. It signals defiance of Beijing.
Don't think the Taiwanese didn't notice that. There was a bit of warmth from the common man on the island towards the mainland until that happened.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:53 pm

johns624 wrote:
art wrote:
The 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration had set the conditions under which Hong Kong was to be transferred, with China agreeing to maintain existing structures of government and economy under a principle of "one country, two systems" for a period of 50 years.
- Wiki

Did China keep to the agreement? No. Unfortunately that means any subsequent agreement that China might try to broker with Taiwan for it to return to the 'mother country' would hold no credibility. China would need to attack and overwhelm Taiwan to get it back.

I think it is a good idea that Pelosi visits Taiwan. It signals support for Taiwan. It signals defiance of Beijing.
Don't think the Taiwanese didn't notice that. There was a bit of warmth from the common man on the island towards the mainland until that happened.


True. Also true is that there are many ties, both family and business, across the strait. One on one the business ties that exist are strong - relationships are everything in Chinese business culture, once established. The politics plays out above all that nitty gritty.
 
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c933103
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:50 pm

Aesma wrote:
c933103 wrote:
But then isn't Russia also viewing Ukraine through the same light, with Euromaidan? Hence China could also do to Taiwan what Russia is doing to Ukraine now.


That's why China doesn't support the Russian invasion, and calls for the war to stop, etc. They don't want the two situations to be conflated, as Russia doesn't have the same "historical right" to Ukraine that China thinks it has on Taiwan.

That China do not want the situation be compared does not and cannot represent whether there's indeed lack of comparable motivation or otherwise.
 
leader1
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:48 am

johns624"Don't think the Taiwanese didn't notice that. There was a bit of warmth from the common man on the island towards the mainland until that happened.[/quote]

Not all that long ago, like maybe 10-15 years, I think most Taiwanese would have supported eventual unification of some sort. That changed with Xi’s more aggressive rhetoric.

[quote="Aaron747 wrote:
True. Also true is that there are many ties, both family and business, across the strait. One on one the business ties that exist are strong - relationships are everything in Chinese business culture, once established. The politics plays out above all that nitty gritty.


China and Taiwan have also diverged culturally the last ten or so years, with Taiwan becoming more liberal and China more conservative. Taiwan, for instance, is the only place in Asia that allows same-sex marriage. China just has a “guardianship” system in a few select cities, but they made it clear as recently as a couple of years ago that same-sex marriage wasn’t on the agenda for cultural reasons. The CCP has also been treating homosexuality as an “imported concept”, which goes against their newfound conservative and culturally pure agenda.
 
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seb146
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:20 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:

There are several aircraft available to Congress persons wishing to travel. In today's green concious world, they take the one which is large enough for the delegation but has the smaller footprint. A 737 is the smallest civilian aircraft that could make the trip, via Hawaii. They would not do military aircraft for the perception that would create.

As others have said, AF2 also might create a more antagonistic perception in the eyes of the Chinese.


Aren't AF1, AF2, Marine 1, etc. the call signs for when the president or vice president are onboard? Pelosi, being third in line for the presidency, would be on AF3? Just curious.



Correct on AF1 & AF2, there is no AF3, just SPAR for CODEL trips. SAM is the 89th call sign for when AF isn’t called for ie, when President or V-P are not on board.


Good to know. Thank you!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:41 am

Avatar2go wrote:
As others have said, AF2 also might create a more antagonistic perception in the eyes of the Chinese.


Personally, I don't think it matters one jot to the Chinese if she arrived on a C-40 rather than a C-32.

The simple fact is, she arrived in Taiwan on a USAF plane in those colours and didn't "sneak in" onboard some anonymous private jet as some here suggested she should.
 
Vintage
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:53 am

If anyone wants to read a spirited discussion of Nancy's trip, the Washington Post has issued a bonehead editorial criticizing her trip and the comments to that editorial are for the most part fairly intelligent IMO. The Post editorial board is being lambasted by most everyone.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... e-control/
 
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c933103
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:02 am

scbriml wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:
As others have said, AF2 also might create a more antagonistic perception in the eyes of the Chinese.


Personally, I don't think it matters one jot to the Chinese if she arrived on a C-40 rather than a C-32.

The simple fact is, she arrived in Taiwan on a USAF plane in those colours and didn't "sneak in" onboard some anonymous private jet as some here suggested she should.

China still call her "sneak in" to Taiwan in Chinese language announcement tho, although they aren't using the term in English
 
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NIKV69
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:53 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
sz1998 wrote:
She's on the ground. Pink suit and all.


Though I am against all her politics she does have a lot of style.


That is so big of you to say.


Not sure if this is a dig but I give my opinions popular or unpopular here. She definitely carries herself better than most in her party. Though she has complicated things with this visit and the fact she is just running out the clock since I don't think she will be around after this year.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:04 pm

Vintage wrote:
If anyone wants to read a spirited discussion of Nancy's trip, the Washington Post has issued a bonehead editorial criticizing her trip and the comments to that editorial are for the most part fairly intelligent IMO. The Post editorial board is being lambasted by most everyone.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... e-control/


Hey now...WaPo and Bezos doesn't want his supply chain of infinite cheap Chinese junks to get interrupted :).

More seriously, I'm glad that many people seen through the bluffs myself. Being anti-CCP is definitely one of the few bipartisan consensus in USA. Gotta love all those idiots who think USA should just goes appeasement and not "provoke" CCP, as if CCP really need an excuse if they do bomb Taiwan (CCP also knows the consequences of doing so).

And CCP response? Again, try to starve Taiwan by embargoing their goods? (Taiwan can easily survived without mainland, period). Shoot a few missiles around their territorial water just to show who's the boss? (But not dare to fire a missile at Taipei).

art wrote:
The 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration had set the conditions under which Hong Kong was to be transferred, with China agreeing to maintain existing structures of government and economy under a principle of "one country, two systems" for a period of 50 years.
- Wiki

Did China keep to the agreement? No. Unfortunately that means any subsequent agreement that China might try to broker with Taiwan for it to return to the 'mother country' would hold no credibility. China would need to attack and overwhelm Taiwan to get it back.

I think it is a good idea that Pelosi visits Taiwan. It signals support for Taiwan. It signals defiance of Beijing.


As political pundits put it - Tsai got reelected essentially bc of what happened in Hong Kong during the 2019 protest - it basically dismantle the whole disguise that CCP had been imposing for years in HK and made Taiwanese thinks twice before getting closer to mainland. Sure, you still have sellouts like half of KMT in Taiwan, but KMT right now is basically stuck in no-mans land - they can't get too cozy with CCP but they depends on votes from those businesses that loves RMB.
 
leader1
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:38 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
As political pundits put it - Tsai got reelected essentially bc of what happened in Hong Kong during the 2019 protest - it basically dismantle the whole disguise that CCP had been imposing for years in HK and made Taiwanese thinks twice before getting closer to mainland. Sure, you still have sellouts like half of KMT in Taiwan, but KMT right now is basically stuck in no-mans land - they can't get too cozy with CCP but they depends on votes from those businesses that loves RMB.


Tsai was actually polled to lose re-election. If XI hadn't clamped down hard on the HK protests, the KMT would have won. But he just HAD to show brute strength and that he was in charge.

Personally, as much as I dislike the current iteration of the CCP, I think Pelosi's trip was a bad idea and ill-informed publicity stunt. Not that I believe in appeasing the CCP, but I really don't know what this accomplishes. And it only strengthens Xi's hand domestically. The PRC is going through a host of domestic issues right now and, while I'm pretty sure Xi would have secured a third term, there were headwinds and the potential he wouldn't have succeeded. All but gone now and he's going to double-down even harder on the harsher elements of his rule just to show up the USA.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:50 pm

leader1 wrote:

Personally, as much as I dislike the current iteration of the CCP, I think Pelosi's trip was a bad idea and ill-informed publicity stunt. Not that I believe in appeasing the CCP, but I really don't know what this accomplishes. And it only strengthens Xi's hand domestically. The PRC is going through a host of domestic issues right now and, while I'm pretty sure Xi would have secured a third term, there were headwinds and the potential he wouldn't have succeeded. All but gone now and he's going to double-down even harder on the harsher elements of his rule just to show up the USA.


China is not a democracy and the CCP is not a traditional political party, that competes with other parties. Xi has no more chance of being unelected than Putin. These guys are in it for the power and once they have it, they won't give it up.

The only remote possibility is an internal revolt within the party to unseat them by other means. But they are quite careful about that too. They make sure it can't happen. Just look at Putin, in any democratic country, he'd be finished over the cost of Ukraine. But he's fine, not going anywhere unless he dies. Xi will have that same apparatus in place.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:37 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
leader1 wrote:

Personally, as much as I dislike the current iteration of the CCP, I think Pelosi's trip was a bad idea and ill-informed publicity stunt. Not that I believe in appeasing the CCP, but I really don't know what this accomplishes. And it only strengthens Xi's hand domestically. The PRC is going through a host of domestic issues right now and, while I'm pretty sure Xi would have secured a third term, there were headwinds and the potential he wouldn't have succeeded. All but gone now and he's going to double-down even harder on the harsher elements of his rule just to show up the USA.


China is not a democracy and the CCP is not a traditional political party, that competes with other parties. Xi has no more chance of being unelected than Putin. These guys are in it for the power and once they have it, they won't give it up.

The only remote possibility is an internal revolt within the party to unseat them by other means. But they are quite careful about that too. They make sure it can't happen. Just look at Putin, in any democratic country, he'd be finished over the cost of Ukraine. But he's fine, not going anywhere unless he dies. Xi will have that same apparatus in place.


And internal conflict within CCP are being purged all the time - you think all those CCP officials are really getting arrest for "corruption" or "prostitution"? No...it's just a mean to get rid of any possible opposition, all the way from local level to province level and more.

As far as Xi goes - he's going to stay in power regardless, period. I highly doubt the Shanghai clique (under former leader Jiang Zemin...he's also getting old anyway) has that influence to really whistle control away from Xi. The chances of Xi not staying in power is as high as Trump losing control over GQP anyway.
 
leader1
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:38 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
leader1 wrote:

Personally, as much as I dislike the current iteration of the CCP, I think Pelosi's trip was a bad idea and ill-informed publicity stunt. Not that I believe in appeasing the CCP, but I really don't know what this accomplishes. And it only strengthens Xi's hand domestically. The PRC is going through a host of domestic issues right now and, while I'm pretty sure Xi would have secured a third term, there were headwinds and the potential he wouldn't have succeeded. All but gone now and he's going to double-down even harder on the harsher elements of his rule just to show up the USA.


China is not a democracy and the CCP is not a traditional political party, that competes with other parties. Xi has no more chance of being unelected than Putin. These guys are in it for the power and once they have it, they won't give it up.

The only remote possibility is an internal revolt within the party to unseat them by other means. But they are quite careful about that too. They make sure it can't happen. Just look at Putin, in any democratic country, he'd be finished over the cost of Ukraine. But he's fine, not going anywhere unless he dies. Xi will have that same apparatus in place.


I know full well that the PRC isn't a democracy. But the point is that Xi was facing some headwinds, however slight, because of how poorly he's handled some recent domestic issues. There was also unease with his more bellicose and aggressive external relations posture. Point is that things aren't going so well in the PRC and there is enough discontent to at least give some party cadres second thoughts about extending his rule. That's all gone now as he's going to focus on ratcheting up the aggressive rhetoric as a way of clamping down even more than before.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:17 pm

leader1 wrote:

I know full well that the PRC isn't a democracy. But the point is that Xi was facing some headwinds, however slight, because of how poorly he's handled some recent domestic issues. There was also unease with his more bellicose and aggressive external relations posture. Point is that things aren't going so well in the PRC and there is enough discontent to at least give some party cadres second thoughts about extending his rule. That's all gone now as he's going to focus on ratcheting up the aggressive rhetoric as a way of clamping down even more than before.


I think this is a strawman argument to criticize Pelosi. Xi is a classic strongman and his hold on power is not a function of external events, any more than Putin.

If he intimidated Pelosi into not visiting Taiwan, he's stronger. If Pelosi visits anyway, he's stronger. He's built his system of government so that he controls the outcome in all circumstances, for his own benefit. Just like Putin, he controls the narrative, and the narrative never favors anyone else.

Why do you think Trump admired and envied these guys? He wished he could do that in the US, and tried on Jan 6, but unlike China and Russia, American citizens are free, and didn't cooperate.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:50 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
He wished he could do that in the US, and tried on Jan 6, but unlike China and Russia, American citizens are free, and didn't cooperate.


Well, some certainly cooperated and are now experiencing the inside of prison cells, while their revered leader carries on playing golf and scamming money from suckers.
 
leader1
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:09 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
leader1 wrote:

I know full well that the PRC isn't a democracy. But the point is that Xi was facing some headwinds, however slight, because of how poorly he's handled some recent domestic issues. There was also unease with his more bellicose and aggressive external relations posture. Point is that things aren't going so well in the PRC and there is enough discontent to at least give some party cadres second thoughts about extending his rule. That's all gone now as he's going to focus on ratcheting up the aggressive rhetoric as a way of clamping down even more than before.


I think this is a strawman argument to criticize Pelosi. Xi is a classic strongman and his hold on power is not a function of external events, any more than Putin.

If he intimidated Pelosi into not visiting Taiwan, he's stronger. If Pelosi visits anyway, he's stronger. He's built his system of government so that he controls the outcome in all circumstances, for his own benefit. Just like Putin, he controls the narrative, and the narrative never favors anyone else.

Why do you think Trump admired and envied these guys? He wished he could do that in the US, and tried on Jan 6, but unlike China and Russia, American citizens are free, and didn't cooperate.


It might be. I'm anti-Pelosi like some on this forum and think she's been a pretty good Speaker. However, I feel that this trip served little purpose other than to stroke her ego. Even if she didn't go, it wouldn't lessen US commitment to Taiwan's security.

Anyways, while I always felt that Xi's lock on a third term was more or less a certainty, there was some real anger about how he's handled domestic issues. Looking at my WeChat feed, which mostly features educated, some Western educated, Chinese professionals, they're really angry at Pelosi's Taiwan visit, calling it a slap in the face to "the Motherland". These are people who were upset at Xi for a variety of domestic reasons. Now, they're pretty much in lock-step with his Taiwanese rhetoric. If anything unites Mainland Chinese of all stripes, it's the "three T's" - Taiwan, Tiananmen and Tibet.
 
art
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:36 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
The chances of Xi not staying in power is as high as Trump losing control over GQP anyway.


It's encouraging to hear that Xi's position is somewhat tenuous.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:35 pm

Chinese ambassador to France : "once Taiwan is back in the fold, its people will be reeducated" https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1554866631079256066
 
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scbriml
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:03 pm

Aesma wrote:
Chinese ambassador to France : "once Taiwan is back in the fold, its people will be reeducated" https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1554866631079256066


That's a pretty chilling message for anyone who doubts China's resolve to absorb Taiwan.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:15 pm

Aesma wrote:
Chinese ambassador to France : "once Taiwan is back in the fold, its people will be reeducated" https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1554866631079256066
From my understanding of French this:
"Après la réunification, on va faire une rééducation"
actually means 'After reunification we will do re-education '

So perhaps all in the PRC will be re-educated to understand and embrace democracy. Well he won't be in his job long.

But yes, listening to the clip it's clear what he actually means.
So 're-education' like the Uyghurs and ignoring all things they agreed to in HK.
 
luckyone
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:10 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Chinese ambassador to France : "once Taiwan is back in the fold, its people will be reeducated" https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1554866631079256066
From my understanding of French this:
"Après la réunification, on va faire une rééducation"
actually means 'After reunification we will do re-education '

So perhaps all in the PRC will be re-educated to understand and embrace democracy. Well he won't be in his job long.

But yes, listening to the clip it's clear what he actually means.
So 're-education' like the Uyghurs and ignoring all things they agreed to in HK.

If I were the Chinese government I'd be more worried about the rising generation than Taiwan, but I'm also looking at this from an outside point of view. Their bigger problem is going to be a younger generation which, unlike their parents, may not be just content with economic gains. The other problem that I would be worried about is what is going to happen as their status as maker of the world's cheap stuff when their cost of living rises as their population becomes wealthier. Then they're really going to be in for it. But I may be dead by the time that happens.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:29 pm

art wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
The chances of Xi not staying in power is as high as Trump losing control over GQP anyway.


It's encouraging to hear that Xi's position is somewhat tenuous.


TBH there will always be some opposition within CCP as Xi is not the only person that wants power. That doesn't mean they'll get control, though.

luckyone wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Chinese ambassador to France : "once Taiwan is back in the fold, its people will be reeducated" https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1554866631079256066
From my understanding of French this:
"Après la réunification, on va faire une rééducation"
actually means 'After reunification we will do re-education '

So perhaps all in the PRC will be re-educated to understand and embrace democracy. Well he won't be in his job long.

But yes, listening to the clip it's clear what he actually means.
So 're-education' like the Uyghurs and ignoring all things they agreed to in HK.

If I were the Chinese government I'd be more worried about the rising generation than Taiwan, but I'm also looking at this from an outside point of view. Their bigger problem is going to be a younger generation which, unlike their parents, may not be just content with economic gains. The other problem that I would be worried about is what is going to happen as their status as maker of the world's cheap stuff when their cost of living rises as their population becomes wealthier. Then they're really going to be in for it. But I may be dead by the time that happens.


This is what people thought when China opens up its economy and that the country will eventually be more "open". Well, that didn't happened and everything is heading backward under Xi.

That being said mainland China itself does have a big aging bomb coming in a decade or so as the population is predicted to decrease by the end of the decade. And economic gains? Just like the US the younger generation in China ain't exactly feeling that, either.
 
luckyone
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:32 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
art wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
The chances of Xi not staying in power is as high as Trump losing control over GQP anyway.


It's encouraging to hear that Xi's position is somewhat tenuous.


TBH there will always be some opposition within CCP as Xi is not the only person that wants power. That doesn't mean they'll get control, though.

luckyone wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
From my understanding of French this:
"Après la réunification, on va faire une rééducation"
actually means 'After reunification we will do re-education '

So perhaps all in the PRC will be re-educated to understand and embrace democracy. Well he won't be in his job long.

But yes, listening to the clip it's clear what he actually means.
So 're-education' like the Uyghurs and ignoring all things they agreed to in HK.

If I were the Chinese government I'd be more worried about the rising generation than Taiwan, but I'm also looking at this from an outside point of view. Their bigger problem is going to be a younger generation which, unlike their parents, may not be just content with economic gains. The other problem that I would be worried about is what is going to happen as their status as maker of the world's cheap stuff when their cost of living rises as their population becomes wealthier. Then they're really going to be in for it. But I may be dead by the time that happens.


This is what people thought when China opens up its economy and that the country will eventually be more "open". Well, that didn't happened and everything is heading backward under Xi.

That being said mainland China itself does have a big aging bomb coming in a decade or so as the population is predicted to decrease by the end of the decade. And economic gains? Just like the US the younger generation in China ain't exactly feeling that, either.

It's going to take a generation of people that have no knowledge of relative economic hardship, who've only grown up during good economic times. That still is largely not the case in China. Most adults have memory of hardship, and can remember the very recent past when the cities were shiny and new and for them economic growth is enough.
 
889091
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:15 pm

Aesma wrote:
Chinese ambassador to France : "once Taiwan is back in the fold, its people will be reeducated" https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1554866631079256066


Damn! For a moment there, I thought he was describing The Borg from Star Trek.....
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:43 pm

She had to go once it was leaked. America would have looked weak otherwise. Biden gave tacit approval. Eyes on the prize.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:35 am

Plenty of traffic on FR24 right now around the “exclusion zones” that ringed Taiwan, plenty of carriers crossing the path of those southern missile landing zones and crossing the straits between Taiwan and Kinmen back and forth as well. Earlier today UNI Air turboprop traffic crossing right through the northern impact zone too on flights from TPE to Matsu Island.

Plus multiple China Air and EVA flights to PEK and PVG continuing unaffected.

The tension being portrayed by the media right now doesn’t match the risk assessment being taken by airlines.
 
leader1
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Fri Aug 05, 2022 12:09 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Plenty of traffic on FR24 right now around the “exclusion zones” that ringed Taiwan, plenty of carriers crossing the path of those southern missile landing zones and crossing the straits between Taiwan and Kinmen back and forth as well. Earlier today UNI Air turboprop traffic crossing right through the northern impact zone too on flights from TPE to Matsu Island.

Plus multiple China Air and EVA flights to PEK and PVG continuing unaffected.

The tension being portrayed by the media right now doesn’t match the risk assessment being taken by airlines.


And yet key shipping lanes are affected? Hmmmm. Doesn’t sound like much ado about nothing here!

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-08-05/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... drill-zone

Also, several flights have been cancelled or rerouted. This is also what I have seen on Flightradar24. So, if this wasn’t such a big deal, we’d probably see a lot more traffic around that area.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/ne ... 38808.html

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transp ... ear-Taiwan

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/ ... ear-taiwan

About half of the 300 flights that normally go through the Taipei airspace avoided the Taipei region. Pretty significant.

https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202208050011

I mean, you hear it from the horse’s mouth itself. They told the airlines to avoid the area.

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/03/china- ... ear-taiwan
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:25 am

Here’s a map of missile tracks:

https://twitter.com/IBMcCaslin/status/1 ... WZmofggRKg

And a look at FR24 now shows dozens of flights crossing those paths, from EVA, China Air, ANA, Cathay, UPS and others both now and during the last few days. UNI Air ATR-72s flying between Taipei and Matsu and Kaioshung and Kinmen are flying tracks almost the same as the missile trajectories.
 
leader1
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:01 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Here’s a map of missile tracks:

https://twitter.com/IBMcCaslin/status/1 ... WZmofggRKg

And a look at FR24 now shows dozens of flights crossing those paths, from EVA, China Air, ANA, Cathay, UPS and others both now and during the last few days. UNI Air ATR-72s flying between Taipei and Matsu and Kaioshung and Kinmen are flying tracks almost the same as the missile trajectories.



And quite a few airlines still cancelled their flights. KE cancelled their flights to Taiwan.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-08-04/

So did Scoot.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapo ... an-2859731

And airlines are adhering to the PRC’s warning to avoid there area. They did warn them, didn’t they? You can’t deny that there is a lot less activity than normal. I’ve looked at FR24 and FlightAware throughout the day/night, even during the busy period for the area, and there certainly is less activity and quite a few flight deviations.

https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 38.article

You make it sound as if it shouldn’t be a big deal and we just look away. Selective concern, if you ask me.
 
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c933103
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:06 pm

IIRC Taiwan government claim the missiles were above atmosphere when some of them fly across the island
 
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c933103
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:13 pm

leader1 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Plenty of traffic on FR24 right now around the “exclusion zones” that ringed Taiwan, plenty of carriers crossing the path of those southern missile landing zones and crossing the straits between Taiwan and Kinmen back and forth as well. Earlier today UNI Air turboprop traffic crossing right through the northern impact zone too on flights from TPE to Matsu Island.

Plus multiple China Air and EVA flights to PEK and PVG continuing unaffected.

The tension being portrayed by the media right now doesn’t match the risk assessment being taken by airlines.


And yet key shipping lanes are affected? Hmmmm. Doesn’t sound like much ado about nothing here!

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-08-05/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... drill-zone

Also, several flights have been cancelled or rerouted. This is also what I have seen on Flightradar24. So, if this wasn’t such a big deal, we’d probably see a lot more traffic around that area.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/ne ... 38808.html

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transp ... ear-Taiwan

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/ ... ear-taiwan

About half of the 300 flights that normally go through the Taipei airspace avoided the Taipei region. Pretty significant.

https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202208050011

I mean, you hear it from the horse’s mouth itself. They told the airlines to avoid the area.

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/03/china- ... ear-taiwan

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/ahel/202208070096.aspx
Taiwan government also say it guided planes and ships away from dangerous area.
 
A101
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sun Aug 07, 2022 5:58 pm

Besides increased tensions between the US & China and giving the Chinese the finger salute, what did Pelosi trip really achieve to Taiwan

But by China declaring that it will shoot down her plan, the US had no option but send her in as it would have been a propaganda victory to XI
 
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c933103
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:43 pm

A101 wrote:
Besides increased tensions between the US & China and giving the Chinese the finger salute, what did Pelosi trip really achieve to Taiwan

But by China declaring that it will shoot down her plan, the US had no option but send her in as it would have been a propaganda victory to XI

It mark the fact that China cannot restrain US developing and furthering relationship with Taiwan, and that China can't get what they want and push Taiwan into ultimate unification with just empty threats.
 
leader1
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:08 pm

A101 wrote:
Besides increased tensions between the US & China and giving the Chinese the finger salute, what did Pelosi trip really achieve to Taiwan

But by China declaring that it will shoot down her plan, the US had no option but send her in as it would have been a propaganda victory to XI


There was zero - I repeat, zero - reason for her visit. It wouldn’t have done anything to strengthen US-Taiwan relations because those were always a given. My guess is that she knows her time as Speaker is coming to a close soon and this would be her last Asian trip on an official capacity, so she wanted to scratch it off her bucket list. And she’s never been a fan of the CCP, so this was her chance to piss them off them one last time. They’re obviously being hypersensitive to this visit and reacting immaturely, but there was nothing to gain with her going.
 
art
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:46 pm

leader1 wrote:
There was zero - I repeat, zero - reason for her visit.

Did it not suggest that the US would support Taiwan in the event of PRC trying to return it to the motherland by force (in a similar manner to Russia trying to return Ukraine to the motherland by force)? I don't really care what her personal motivation was for the visit. I am pleased that a high ranking member of the US government sent a signal of US non-submission to president Xi.
 
leader1
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:05 pm

art wrote:
leader1 wrote:
There was zero - I repeat, zero - reason for her visit.

Did it not suggest that the US would support Taiwan in the event of PRC trying to return it to the motherland by force (in a similar manner to Russia trying to return Ukraine to the motherland by force)? I don't really care what her personal motivation was for the visit. I am pleased that a high ranking member of the US government sent a signal of US non-submission to president Xi.


Biden’s commitment to Taiwan’s security has been proclaimed several times. His press office has had to walk back several of his statements because they felt he was too forceful, to which he doubled-down further. So, there was no reason to doubt it before Pelosi’s visit.
 
art
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:15 pm

leader1 wrote:
art wrote:
leader1 wrote:
There was zero - I repeat, zero - reason for her visit.

Did it not suggest that the US would support Taiwan in the event of PRC trying to return it to the motherland by force (in a similar manner to Russia trying to return Ukraine to the motherland by force)? I don't really care what her personal motivation was for the visit. I am pleased that a high ranking member of the US government sent a signal of US non-submission to president Xi.


Biden’s commitment to Taiwan’s security has been proclaimed several times. His press office has had to walk back several of his statements because they felt he was too forceful, to which he doubled-down further. So, there was no reason to doubt it before Pelosi’s visit.


OK. Nevertheless actions that China finds irksome speak louder than words that China finds irksome, I would say. The fact that China went somewhat bananas over Pelosi's visit tends to support that contention, doesn't it?
 
leader1
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:31 pm

art wrote:
leader1 wrote:
art wrote:
Did it not suggest that the US would support Taiwan in the event of PRC trying to return it to the motherland by force (in a similar manner to Russia trying to return Ukraine to the motherland by force)? I don't really care what her personal motivation was for the visit. I am pleased that a high ranking member of the US government sent a signal of US non-submission to president Xi.


Biden’s commitment to Taiwan’s security has been proclaimed several times. His press office has had to walk back several of his statements because they felt he was too forceful, to which he doubled-down further. So, there was no reason to doubt it before Pelosi’s visit.


OK. Nevertheless actions that China finds irksome speak louder than words that China finds irksome, I would say. The fact that China went somewhat bananas over Pelosi's visit tends to support that contention, doesn't it?


Hey man, you will find zero argument from me that the PRC’s response has been immature and they have overreacted. And it’s possible they were looking for an excuse to perform these exercises anyways and Pelosi’s visit just pushed up the timeline. The fact that they did them so quickly means they already prepared for this months ago and were just waiting to pull the trigger. I don’t know, there are enough flashpoints going on globally now and we don’t need another one to get inflamed.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:18 pm

I think Pelosi visited to make the explicit point that China cannot dictate recognition and interaction with Taiwan by other nations. And the need to do that is verified by the Chinese response to her visit.

You could think of it as a freedom of navigation exercise, same as we conduct in the South China Sea, and for the same reason. To prevent China from dictating the rules for everyone else to live by. Which is their ultimate goal, both within their country and without.
 
johns624
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:13 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
I think Pelosi visited to make the explicit point that China cannot dictate recognition and interaction with Taiwan by other nations. And the need to do that is verified by the Chinese response to her visit.

You could think of it as a freedom of navigation exercise, same as we conduct in the South China Sea, and for the same reason. To prevent China from dictating the rules for everyone else to live by. Which is their ultimate goal, both within their country and without.
Very well said and a viewpoint that I hadn't thought of.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:03 pm

leader1 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Besides increased tensions between the US & China and giving the Chinese the finger salute, what did Pelosi trip really achieve to Taiwan

But by China declaring that it will shoot down her plan, the US had no option but send her in as it would have been a propaganda victory to XI


There was zero - I repeat, zero - reason for her visit.


That’s just your opinion. Plenty of others think differently.

Anything that shows China that they can’t dictate what other nations do is good in my book. The fact the trip was made in a plane in presidential colours was just the cherry on top. I agree that their petulant response is ludicrous and just makes them look like a stroppy teenager who’s been grounded.

It would be good if the rest of the World stopped kowtowing and refused to go along with the “one China” BS. But hey, money is more important.
 
FGITD
Posts: 2155
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:39 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
I think Pelosi visited to make the explicit point that China cannot dictate recognition and interaction with Taiwan by other nations. And the need to do that is verified by the Chinese response to her visit.

You could think of it as a freedom of navigation exercise, same as we conduct in the South China Sea, and for the same reason. To prevent China from dictating the rules for everyone else to live by. Which is their ultimate goal, both within their country and without.


Very well put.

Who cares if there was “no point” to the trip, as others claim. The whole point was exercising that politicians can travel where they please, regardless of the wishes of a third party country.

Personally I’m not too keen to live under a government that lives by the rules of a different country.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:38 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
I think Pelosi visited to make the explicit point that China cannot dictate recognition and interaction with Taiwan by other nations. And the need to do that is verified by the Chinese response to her visit.

You could think of it as a freedom of navigation exercise, same as we conduct in the South China Sea, and for the same reason. To prevent China from dictating the rules for everyone else to live by. Which is their ultimate goal, both within their country and without.


:checkmark: Good points.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1834
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:21 pm

art wrote:
leader1 wrote:
art wrote:
Did it not suggest that the US would support Taiwan in the event of PRC trying to return it to the motherland by force (in a similar manner to Russia trying to return Ukraine to the motherland by force)? I don't really care what her personal motivation was for the visit. I am pleased that a high ranking member of the US government sent a signal of US non-submission to president Xi.


Biden’s commitment to Taiwan’s security has been proclaimed several times. His press office has had to walk back several of his statements because they felt he was too forceful, to which he doubled-down further. So, there was no reason to doubt it before Pelosi’s visit.


OK. Nevertheless actions that China finds irksome speak louder than words that China finds irksome, I would say. The fact that China went somewhat bananas over Pelosi's visit tends to support that contention, doesn't it?


The visit, and China’s response, severely weakened China’s international position, relationship with the US (which is very important) and the future prospects of the Chinese Communist Party.

Once it is clear that Russia/China are enemies of all democratically elected countries, their governments can be marginalized and put under long term stress.

Meantime, I support expanding the US relationship with India and dismantling the problems we have created in a China. The next iPhone being made in India is a huge step forward. India is a democracy with a bright future. China is not.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 18131
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:50 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
art wrote:
leader1 wrote:

Biden’s commitment to Taiwan’s security has been proclaimed several times. His press office has had to walk back several of his statements because they felt he was too forceful, to which he doubled-down further. So, there was no reason to doubt it before Pelosi’s visit.


OK. Nevertheless actions that China finds irksome speak louder than words that China finds irksome, I would say. The fact that China went somewhat bananas over Pelosi's visit tends to support that contention, doesn't it?


The visit, and China’s response, severely weakened China’s international position, relationship with the US (which is very important) and the future prospects of the Chinese Communist Party.

Once it is clear that Russia/China are enemies of all democratically elected countries, their governments can be marginalized and put under long term stress.

Meantime, I support expanding the US relationship with India and dismantling the problems we have created in a China. The next iPhone being made in India is a huge step forward. India is a democracy with a bright future. China is not.


Well, to a point. India is a democracy with a bright future if one is Hindu nationalist - but that's only 2/3 of the population. ~500 million unhappy people is a lot.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... ly-linked/

In the meantime, completely agree with your analysis of how PRC has come out of this. They really backed themselves into a corner given their current economic issues. And as with anything, they can't afford to screw up too much with ROC, because there's too much $$$ in play. From GZero:

Image
 
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par13del
Posts: 11449
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:37 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
I think Pelosi visited to make the explicit point that China cannot dictate recognition and interaction with Taiwan by other nations. And the need to do that is verified by the Chinese response to her visit.

So the fact that China has already gotten basically the entire world to recognize One China and in most cases terminate diplomatic relations with Taiwan makes never no mind?
We want to show that we stand up to China after the fact, does face saving after you submit to their demands / wishes even count?
 
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par13del
Posts: 11449
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:40 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
art wrote:

OK. Nevertheless actions that China finds irksome speak louder than words that China finds irksome, I would say. The fact that China went somewhat bananas over Pelosi's visit tends to support that contention, doesn't it?


The visit, and China’s response, severely weakened China’s international position, relationship with the US (which is very important) and the future prospects of the Chinese Communist Party.

Once it is clear that Russia/China are enemies of all democratically elected countries, their governments can be marginalized and put under long term stress.

Meantime, I support expanding the US relationship with India and dismantling the problems we have created in a China. The next iPhone being made in India is a huge step forward. India is a democracy with a bright future. China is not.


Well, to a point. India is a democracy with a bright future if one is Hindu nationalist - but that's only 2/3 of the population. ~500 million unhappy people is a lot.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... ly-linked/

In the meantime, completely agree with your analysis of how PRC has come out of this. They really backed themselves into a corner given their current economic issues. And as with anything, they can't afford to screw up too much with ROC, because there's too much $$$ in play. From GZero:

Image

Why is Hong Kong listed separately from China, are they independent and not following the edicts of the mainland, it would make the numbers more skewed to China showing how soon Taiwan will be bought back into the fold without a single shot being fired.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:56 pm

par13del wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

The visit, and China’s response, severely weakened China’s international position, relationship with the US (which is very important) and the future prospects of the Chinese Communist Party.

Once it is clear that Russia/China are enemies of all democratically elected countries, their governments can be marginalized and put under long term stress.

Meantime, I support expanding the US relationship with India and dismantling the problems we have created in a China. The next iPhone being made in India is a huge step forward. India is a democracy with a bright future. China is not.


Well, to a point. India is a democracy with a bright future if one is Hindu nationalist - but that's only 2/3 of the population. ~500 million unhappy people is a lot.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... ly-linked/

In the meantime, completely agree with your analysis of how PRC has come out of this. They really backed themselves into a corner given their current economic issues. And as with anything, they can't afford to screw up too much with ROC, because there's too much $$$ in play. From GZero:

Image

Why is Hong Kong listed separately from China, are they independent and not following the edicts of the mainland, it would make the numbers more skewed to China showing how soon Taiwan will be bought back into the fold without a single shot being fired.


Hong Kong is a bizarre case of Chinese “special administrative region” that was supposed to have its own governmental system (that’s basically gone now) but it also has its own currency and passport.

China is trying to do to Taiwan exactly what they did to Hong Kong. Treat it as a colony with no real identity as a country. The main difference is that the CCP does not rule Taiwan, and never has. This whole thing is a colossal mess created by incompetent Western leaders who were totally outclassed and defeated by Chinese negotiators.
 
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c933103
Posts: 6681
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Re: Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan

Mon Aug 08, 2022 7:20 pm

par13del wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

The visit, and China’s response, severely weakened China’s international position, relationship with the US (which is very important) and the future prospects of the Chinese Communist Party.

Once it is clear that Russia/China are enemies of all democratically elected countries, their governments can be marginalized and put under long term stress.

Meantime, I support expanding the US relationship with India and dismantling the problems we have created in a China. The next iPhone being made in India is a huge step forward. India is a democracy with a bright future. China is not.


Well, to a point. India is a democracy with a bright future if one is Hindu nationalist - but that's only 2/3 of the population. ~500 million unhappy people is a lot.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... ly-linked/

In the meantime, completely agree with your analysis of how PRC has come out of this. They really backed themselves into a corner given their current economic issues. And as with anything, they can't afford to screw up too much with ROC, because there's too much $$$ in play. From GZero:

Image

Why is Hong Kong listed separately from China, are they independent and not following the edicts of the mainland, it would make the numbers more skewed to China showing how soon Taiwan will be bought back into the fold without a single shot being fired.

It is a separate custom zone. It have come under China control but do not necessarily have the same custom policy as Mainland China. When China want something that they themselves banned they can import through Hong Kong.

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