par13del wrote:

So the fact that China has already gotten basically the entire world to recognize One China and in most cases terminate diplomatic relations with Taiwan makes never no mind?
We want to show that we stand up to China after the fact, does face saving after you submit to their demands / wishes even count?

US recognition of one China has always been dependent on a voluntary and peaceful reunification, which we still support. Nothing has changed in that regard. As is true of most of the world as well.

What has changed is China's belligerence and military buildup, with the apparent intention of conquering Taiwan by force. As well as the use of police force in Hong Kong, which China had agreed would remain self-governed after similar integration. The more belligerent China becomes, the greater will be the independent recognition of Taiwan by the West. That is a rational and logical response.

Avatar2go wrote:

US recognition of one China has always been dependent on a voluntary and peaceful reunification, which we still support. Nothing has changed in that regard. As is true of most of the world as well.

A non-communist nation is going to peacefully be taken over by a communist nation, anyone really believe that, it does make good political speech.
The UK were very pleased with the "special status" they supposedly got China to agree on with Hong Kong when they "voluntarily" returned the territory to China, based on where we are today, do we see anything different with Taiwan? Submission to mainland rule is the only peaceful reunification, if everyone accepts that the island was ever under mainland rule. The fact that the world has accepted One Chine says any historical facts about the island are no longer in dispute, sucks for Taiwan staying independent.

par13del wrote:

Avatar2go wrote:

US recognition of one China has always been dependent on a voluntary and peaceful reunification, which we still support. Nothing has changed in that regard. As is true of most of the world as well.

A non-communist nation is going to peacefully be taken over by a communist nation, anyone really believe that, it does make good political speech.
The UK were very pleased with the "special status" they supposedly got China to agree on with Hong Kong when they "voluntarily" returned the territory to China, based on where we are today, do we see anything different with Taiwan? Submission to mainland rule is the only peaceful reunification, if everyone accepts that the island was ever under mainland rule. The fact that the world has accepted One Chine says any historical facts about the island are no longer in dispute, sucks for Taiwan staying independent.

Have to disagree, the US has said they will assist Taiwan in the event of military assault from China. I think much of the West would as well. Certainly the Pacific nations that are also being intimidated and have contentious relations with China, would have an incentive to defend Taiwan.

What that means militarily is quite different, China has a major military advantage in any conflict with Taiwan, even if the West is involved. But the commitment is no less because of that. And the economic consequences for China would be severe, as they have been for Russia.

It's notable that Taiwan itself was not necessarily opposed to a Hong Kong like reunification, until the repressions began there. Now, they understandably want no part of it. China did not keep their promises in Hong Kong, so that lesson is learned by the UK & other nations in the region. China took a hard turn to the right under Xi, and that shows no signs of abating.

par13del wrote:

Avatar2go wrote:

I think Pelosi visited to make the explicit point that China cannot dictate recognition and interaction with Taiwan by other nations. And the need to do that is verified by the Chinese response to her visit.

So the fact that China has already gotten basically the entire world to recognize One China and in most cases terminate diplomatic relations with Taiwan makes never no mind?
We want to show that we stand up to China after the fact, does face saving after you submit to their demands / wishes even count?

If China was secure in the "One China" thing, someone visiting Taiwan shouldn't bother them.

par13del wrote:

it would make the numbers more skewed to China showing how soon Taiwan will be bought back into the fold without a single shot being fired.

You might want to check out the trade figures between Russia and Ukraine pre-2014. How's that peaceful reunification going?

par13del wrote:

Avatar2go wrote:

US recognition of one China has always been dependent on a voluntary and peaceful reunification, which we still support. Nothing has changed in that regard. As is true of most of the world as well.

A non-communist nation is going to peacefully be taken over by a communist nation, anyone really believe that, it does make good political speech.
The UK were very pleased with the "special status" they supposedly got China to agree on with Hong Kong when they "voluntarily" returned the territory to China, based on where we are today, do we see anything different with Taiwan? Submission to mainland rule is the only peaceful reunification, if everyone accepts that the island was ever under mainland rule. The fact that the world has accepted One Chine says any historical facts about the island are no longer in dispute, sucks for Taiwan staying independent.

There were also threat of use of force from China, doesn't help that UK couldn't defend Hong Kong even during 1940s.

c933103 wrote:

par13del wrote:

Avatar2go wrote:

US recognition of one China has always been dependent on a voluntary and peaceful reunification, which we still support. Nothing has changed in that regard. As is true of most of the world as well.

A non-communist nation is going to peacefully be taken over by a communist nation, anyone really believe that, it does make good political speech.
The UK were very pleased with the "special status" they supposedly got China to agree on with Hong Kong when they "voluntarily" returned the territory to China, based on where we are today, do we see anything different with Taiwan? Submission to mainland rule is the only peaceful reunification, if everyone accepts that the island was ever under mainland rule. The fact that the world has accepted One Chine says any historical facts about the island are no longer in dispute, sucks for Taiwan staying independent.

There were also threat of use of force from China, doesn't help that UK couldn't defend Hong Kong even during 1940s.

UK govt if anything were weak when it comes to HK - they literally just let China dictates pretty much everything, up to the lack of true democratic govt right before 1997. UK also was the one that literally changed the nationality of HKers in 1983 from British Nationals (i.e. somebody that have right to abode in UK proper) to British Nationals Overseas (i.e. still have to go through the whole immigration process, even if it's easier than, let say, somebody from Africa, to stay/work in UK) up until the new BNO visa scheme.

UK of course also realized that HK is not defensible at all militarily - being so small and also sharing a land border with mainland itself.

Oh...did I mentioned that UK recognized the CCP regime in 1950, way before US did in 1972, because of heavy trades even that far back?

What happened to HK is ultimately a doing of weak western govt against China for years - and this also creates the whole Taiwan problem. Sure, US will defend Taiwan, as will Japan for their own national interest, but to say US is always this supportive of Taiwan is also a big lie.

johns624 wrote:

par13del wrote:

it would make the numbers more skewed to China showing how soon Taiwan will be bought back into the fold without a single shot being fired.

You might want to check out the trade figures between Russia and Ukraine pre-2014. How's that peaceful reunification going?

When has trade ever prevented war? Lack of trade certainly wasn´t an issue between Germany and France or Japan and the US in 1940...

best regards
Thomas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIEI8qBMZbM

Chinese ambassador Xiao Qian addresses the National Press Club of Australia.in Canberra on 08/08/22 press questions

Has a number of answers on Taiwan in regards to the Pelosi visit, in which he said the Taiwanese people have no say in whether they want to be under the one China policy. He also said that one under CCP control there will be re-education lessons

And yet few listen to what Taiwanese citizens say and how they respond. This is an interesting read on that:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/is-t ... -rcna41964

From the article:

“I don’t think China will attack because our rockets can also reach Beijing and Shanghai,” Rui said. “There will be mutual destruction. We’re just a small island, but they are the ones who have much more to lose.”

And in a nutshell that is the problem for China.

They have nothing to gain and everything to lose from taking Taiwan from it's people. They can but they lose everything.

Tugg

PRC have something closer than home than Taiwan to worry about;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2QdceCNOxc

A101 wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIEI8qBMZbM

Chinese ambassador Xiao Qian addresses the National Press Club of Australia.in Canberra on 08/08/22 press questions

Has a number of answers on Taiwan in regards to the Pelosi visit, in which he said the Taiwanese people have no say in whether they want to be under the one China policy. He also said that one under CCP control there will be re-education lessons

The French ambassador said the same thing so I guess they all got a memo with these bullet points.

China trying very hard to destroy its image...

Tugger wrote:

And yet few listen to what Taiwanese citizens say and how they respond. This is an interesting read on that:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/is-t ... -rcna41964

From the article:

“I don’t think China will attack because our rockets can also reach Beijing and Shanghai,” Rui said. “There will be mutual destruction. We’re just a small island, but they are the ones who have much more to lose.”

And in a nutshell that is the problem for China.

They have nothing to gain and everything to lose from taking Taiwan from it's people. They can but they lose everything.

Tugg

Not even Zelensky think Russia will attack Ukraine until the war actually broke out.
China do not seek to gain anything from the people of Taiwan if they indeed start a war of aggression. Like Russia isn't trying to gain anything fron Ukrainian population.

c933103 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

And yet few listen to what Taiwanese citizens say and how they respond. This is an interesting read on that:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/is-t ... -rcna41964

From the article:

“I don’t think China will attack because our rockets can also reach Beijing and Shanghai,” Rui said. “There will be mutual destruction. We’re just a small island, but they are the ones who have much more to lose.”

And in a nutshell that is the problem for China.

They have nothing to gain and everything to lose from taking Taiwan from it's people. They can but they lose everything.

Tugg

Not even Zelensky think Russia will attack Ukraine until the war actually broke out.
China do not seek to gain anything from the people of Taiwan if they indeed start a war of aggression. Like Russia isn't trying to gain anything fron Ukrainian population.

Understood, but China is more pragmatic. The big part, the "big loss" that China would suffer I did not include: Loss of global trade as China suffers sanctions at least as bad as what we see imposed against Russia. China would be hobbled by those.

And yes the world would be impacted as well but it would be very bad for China. Possibly unrecoverable.

Of course ultimately I do not know what China will do but I still think they are at least ten years away from being able to militarily take Taiwan successfully. But even then it would become a pyrrhic victory I think.

Tugg

c933103 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

And yet few listen to what Taiwanese citizens say and how they respond. This is an interesting read on that:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/is-t ... -rcna41964

From the article:

“I don’t think China will attack because our rockets can also reach Beijing and Shanghai,” Rui said. “There will be mutual destruction. We’re just a small island, but they are the ones who have much more to lose.”

And in a nutshell that is the problem for China.

They have nothing to gain and everything to lose from taking Taiwan from it's people. They can but they lose everything.

Tugg

Not even Zelensky think Russia will attack Ukraine until the war actually broke out.
China do not seek to gain anything from the people of Taiwan if they indeed start a war of aggression. Like Russia isn't trying to gain anything fron Ukrainian population.

Indeed they don't care about the Taiwanese people if they say "the Taiwanese people have no say in whether they want to be under the one China policy."
How come one (larger) group of people gets to decide what other people can or can't do. It comes down to bullying and power.

People are saying that Taiwan produces the majority of the worlds (and exports to China) chips and China wouldn't jeopardise that.
That might be more of a reason why they'd want Taiwan to own the chip making.
I saw in this video for example that ASML can't export their best machines to China.
https://youtu.be/iSVHp6CAyQ8

Tugger wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

And yet few listen to what Taiwanese citizens say and how they respond. This is an interesting read on that:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/is-t ... -rcna41964

From the article:


And in a nutshell that is the problem for China.

They have nothing to gain and everything to lose from taking Taiwan from it's people. They can but they lose everything.

Tugg

Not even Zelensky think Russia will attack Ukraine until the war actually broke out.
China do not seek to gain anything from the people of Taiwan if they indeed start a war of aggression. Like Russia isn't trying to gain anything fron Ukrainian population.

Understood, but China is more pragmatic. The big part, the "big loss" that China would suffer I did not include: Loss of global trade as China suffers sanctions at least as bad as what we see imposed against Russia. China would be hobbled by those.

And yes the world would be impacted as well but it would be very bad for China. Possibly unrecoverable.

Of course ultimately I do not know what China will do but I still think they are at least ten years away from being able to militarily take Taiwan successfully. But even then it would become a pyrrhic victory I think.

Tugg

China have been doing "Belt and road" for a decade. A big part of it is that so that China can establish its own sphere of trade with nations all around the world, that wouldn't be affected by sanction from Western countries even when they are enacted. So they have been making preparation for the event that they get totally cut off by the West, no matter how successful such preparation is.
And a pyrrhic victory could be what exactly the Chinese government want. It give them an excuse to have tighter control on its population and a tighter grip of power.

c933103 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

Understood, but China is more pragmatic. The big part, the "big loss" that China would suffer I did not include: Loss of global trade as China suffers sanctions at least as bad as what we see imposed against Russia. China would be hobbled by those.

And yes the world would be impacted as well but it would be very bad for China. Possibly unrecoverable.

Of course ultimately I do not know what China will do but I still think they are at least ten years away from being able to militarily take Taiwan successfully. But even then it would become a pyrrhic victory I think.

Tugg

China have been doing "Belt and road" for a decade. A big part of it is that so that China can establish its own sphere of trade with nations all around the world, that wouldn't be affected by sanction from Western countries even when they are enacted. So they have been making preparation for the event that they get totally cut off by the West, no matter how successful such preparation is.
And a pyrrhic victory could be what exactly the Chinese government want. It give them an excuse to have tighter control on its population and a tighter grip of power.

Unfortunately their B&R initiative has been running into headwinds lately as nations involved find the terms to be onerous. Also B&R is not with major trading partners, more resource states. Many signed with leadership that does not have the interest of their people at heart.

China needs to sell finished products to international customers as they have not yet developed an internal market of the scale that is needed.

But you are right, ultimately the CCP may just be suicidal and power hungry and not caring of their people. If they are then we are all in trouble (including China).

Tugg

c933103 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

And yet few listen to what Taiwanese citizens say and how they respond. This is an interesting read on that:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/is-t ... -rcna41964

From the article:

“I don’t think China will attack because our rockets can also reach Beijing and Shanghai,” Rui said. “There will be mutual destruction. We’re just a small island, but they are the ones who have much more to lose.”

And in a nutshell that is the problem for China.

They have nothing to gain and everything to lose from taking Taiwan from it's people. They can but they lose everything.

Tugg

Not even Zelensky think Russia will attack Ukraine until the war actually broke out.
China do not seek to gain anything from the people of Taiwan if they indeed start a war of aggression. Like Russia isn't trying to gain anything fron Ukrainian population.

You're looking at the Ukrainian situation with hindsight. Russia thought that they would be welcomed with open arms and would get Ukraine's industrial and agricultural sectors undamaged. That's not how it turned out, though.

johns624 wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

And yet few listen to what Taiwanese citizens say and how they respond. This is an interesting read on that:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/is-t ... -rcna41964

From the article:


And in a nutshell that is the problem for China.

They have nothing to gain and everything to lose from taking Taiwan from it's people. They can but they lose everything.

Tugg

Not even Zelensky think Russia will attack Ukraine until the war actually broke out.
China do not seek to gain anything from the people of Taiwan if they indeed start a war of aggression. Like Russia isn't trying to gain anything fron Ukrainian population.

You're looking at the Ukrainian situation with hindsight. Russia thought that they would be welcomed with open arms and would get Ukraine's industrial and agricultural sectors undamaged. That's not how it turned out, though.

Russian propaganda made their solider believe so.
Chinese propaganda is also say the same thing. Things along the line that people who now clain themselves as Taiwanese are actually agents controlled by Japan and America, and real Taiwanese people who identify themselves as Chinese are suppressed by these foreign interest. When KMT-backed proposal get defeated in national referendum in Taiwan they claim it signal the death and unfairness of democracy in Taiwan, failing to reflect "what people truly want"

I sure hope the Chinese government learned something from the global reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Imagine a total ban on all imports from China into the US/EU/UK/Australia. No more Chinese students learning abroad or trips to the US/EU/UK/Australia.

c933103 wrote:

Not even Zelensky think Russia will attack Ukraine until the war actually broke out.
China do not seek to gain anything from the people of Taiwan if they indeed start a war of aggression. Like Russia isn't trying to gain anything fron Ukrainian population.

I disagree somewhat. There are similarities between Ukraine and Taiwan, sure. Both were seen as "rogue states" that should be under the umbrella of Russia/China. For China it's a very big thing though, and has been ingrained in Chinese minds for generations. I don't think the average Russian really cares about Ukraine at all, it was Putin's obsession first and foremost.

For China, Taiwan needs not to exist. Whether because it's fully part of China, or because everyone there is dead, or the island has sunk, is secondary.

On the other hand Putin really wanted to annex Ukraine and make Russia great again with 40 millions new citizens.