Hi all,

Yesterday was reading NYPD Red 5 by James Patterson. While he is a fiction writer, fiction many a time also starts from the truth. In the book, he shares how 9/11 took quite a number of people of men in blue, while most of the remaining got burnt out investigating their dead friends and trying to close those cases, and apparently NYC didn't see or chose not to see what is happening. This probably put a lot of stress on the remaining people and over years, many left the service. So now, there is a shortage and then people like Trump take advantage of the fact.

It probably is a plausible theory, but would like to know if the number of cops replaced are not more than in that time. If somebody can share some stats, would be good, thanks.

I cannot answer in regards to the NYPD, I can answer for the NYFD and that would be a huge yes.

One of my customers owns a company that deals with used fire fighting equipment, the NYFD emptied his yards in the weeks after 9/11. As a point, he sold everything to them at his cost, good man.

Many fire departments donated equipment to the NYFD as well.

No, not at all. If 9/11 had anything to do with this, it's because of the recession and budget deficit it caused.

I worked at the NYC Office of Management and Budget at that time and specifically analyzed the NYPD's and DOC's personnel budgets. My job was to perform the analysis to determine whether those agencies should increase or decrease headcount. The NYPD had a peak uniform officer headcount of around 40,000 officers in 2000. It decreased to around 36,000 the next few years because the City had a budget deficit and by law, they must run a budget surplus (a holdover from the 1970s fiscal crisis). NYC government agencies had to reduce their headcount and the NYPD was no exception. And the headcount has remained constant throughout the years at around 35,000.

Uniformed officer headcount has declined the last two years because of the pandemic and general political mood towards cops (the "defund the police" movement and former Mayor de Blasio's general attitude towards the BLM protests and the cops didn't help morale any).

https://gothamist.com/news/crime-record ... fewer-cops (historical trends)

https://cbcny.org/sites/default/files/m ... igs-07.png (more recent figures)

I also checked the NYPD's website and it states that total number of uniformed officers is about 34,400. That's lower than the recent historical average, but not substantially so.

And the reason headcount spiked in the 90s was because of then Mayor Giuliani's laser focus on crime and a massive increase in law enforcement funding thanks to the federal Crime Bill. That resulted in a massive NYPD hiring spree. After he left and the City went through a recession and they needed to cut costs. Personnel costs are usually the highest.

One more thing...The published headcount does not represent the number of actual officers and is just the number of officers that are budgeted for the fiscal year. I can tell you that this was definitely the case in the early 2000s, when they started aggressively decreasing the personnel budget. There were not 40,000 uniformed officers working that time, which is why the decline looks so drastic. It's been a long time since I worked there, but I would presume that the budgeted headcount now is a lot closer to the number of officers actually working.

NYPD will struggle with staffing but it's not because of 9/11. That is for sure. NYC has degenerated into a very dangerous place. I hope someone can bring it back.

Kno wrote:

I’m curious - can the amount of cameras and NYPD watch stations in NYC these days be factored into this equation?

Even with lower numbers today the NYPD has one of the highest officer to population ratios in the country. The general feel and vibe of most neighborhoods is that it is heavily policed.

NIKV69 wrote:

NYPD will struggle with staffing but it's not because of 9/11. That is for sure. NYC has degenerated into a very dangerous place. I hope someone can bring it back.

A very dangerous place sounds a little extreme….

Yes crime has gone up recently however it’s still a fraction of what it was 20, 30, 40 years ago.

A lot of neighborhoods you wouldn’t go to after dark back then are as safe to walk alone at night as any other major city.

Crime is definitely up compared to a few years ago, but the city is still much safer than Vegas, where Nick supposedly lives. You never hear him complain about crime there.

@leader1 thank you for the charts. As the two are linked or are closer together, I am sure 2002 was a disaster, and probably 2-3 years more it was a recession. It is understandable after the twin tower attacks. The defund the police thing is new but this I guess is mostly from people who just want to have more chaos. My question now is did the attacks make the recession or there were other things/events which made NYC recessionary at that point in time, 2000, 2001, 2002 ???

I speak with a number of NYPD guys, socially ar shooting competitions, they’re very discouraged. Even a Deputy Commisioner.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I speak with a number of NYPD guys, socially ar shooting competitions, they’re very discouraged. Even a Deputy Commisioner.

As do I. Some of them are my neighbors. They’re always “discouraged”.

pune wrote:

@leader1 thank you for the charts. As the two are linked or are closer together, I am sure 2002 was a disaster, and probably 2-3 years more it was a recession. It is understandable after the twin tower attacks. The defund the police thing is new but this I guess is mostly from people who just want to have more chaos. My question now is did the attacks make the recession or there were other things/events which made NYC recessionary at that point in time, 2000, 2001, 2002 ???

The attacks made the recession. NYC was booming right before. Things probably would have slowed down if there wasn’t a 9/11, but it wouldn’t have been as dramatic as it was.

And I do think morale is down more because of the defund the police movement, which has died down, than it was with 9/11. Some of my neighbors are cops, including the head of the Police Benevolence Union (a total nutbar, by the way), and they were pissed over the whole defund the police movement. That affected them way more than 9/11 ever did.

The Port Authority of NY & NJ, who had lead law enforcement jurisdiction on the WTC site on 9/11, lost 37 police officers, including several senior ones, that day out of a force of 1400, likely more in proportion than the NYPD lost. The remaining officers had to serve 12 hour shifts with few days off due to not only cover the massive policing needs at the WTC site, but for its many other properties that were high level targets of terrorists including 3 major airports (EWR, LGA, JFK) but also the bridges and tunnels they operate between NYC and NJ, and Port Newark/Port Elizabeth. Many officers quit or took retirement from the subsequent health problems and stress. It took years due to budget issues to get the force back to its former and eventual higher level to cover all its security needs.

NIKV69 wrote:

NYPD will struggle with staffing but it's not because of 9/11. That is for sure. NYC has degenerated into a very dangerous place. I hope someone can bring it back.

That is a bit of a exaggeration, it's no worse than the 1990s and way better than the '80s. I remember in the early -mid 1990s waiting in line for the Holland tunnel being harassed by hookers and dudes with boxes of stereos for sale. That area today (Tri-Beca) is one of the nicest parts of the city.

Factbox: Despite recent uptick, New York City crime down from past decades

MURDER
The city recorded 488 murders in 2021, a 4% increase from 468 in 2020, which in turn was up 47% from 319 in 2019, and 295 homicides in 2018 after falling to a low of 292 in 2017 following a steady decline since the early 1990s. The number of murders in 2010 was 536, in 2000 was 673, and in 1990 was 2,262.

488 murders in 2021 for a city of 8 million, for comparison in 2000 when as leader1 pointed out was the peak of the NYPD force and Giuliani was still mayor there were 673 murders. It's definitely trending in the wrong direction, but it's still historically low.

ROBBERY
The city recorded 13,831 robberies in 2021, up 6% from 13,106 in 2020. The figure was 13,371 in 2019 after going as low as 12,913 in 2018. The number of robberies in 2010 was 19,486, in 2000 was 32,562, and in 1990 was 100,280.

Again the 2021 robbery numbers are lower than the year 2000 when the NYPD was it's largest and the Mayor was Giuliani.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/despite-recent-uptick-new-york-city-crime-down-past-decades-2022-04-12/

My qualm is the open pot smoking and mentally ill people. I think we should bus them to Florida, they will be more comfortable come Winter.