2022 Hurricane Season - Hurricane Ian

MohawkWeekend · Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:07 pm

Looks like the US might have its first major hurricane of the season.

TS Ian is expected to rapidly strengthen and is heading towards Florida's west coast.

Expect gasoline to be in short supply as US stockpile are below average for this time of year.

Sounds like Atlantic Canada is getting pounded by Fiona. Yikes.

phatfarmlines · Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:34 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Looks like the US might have its first major hurricane of the season.

TS Ian is expected to rapidly strengthen and is heading towards Florida's west coast.
.

It's looking like 2004 Hurricane Charley repeat the way the current trajectory is set up.

FatAmy · Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:37 pm

wow. and here I was thinking we were going to escape a rough season! I spoke to soon... looks like we will have many military bases evacuating as well.

phatfarmlines · Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:35 am

Tampa Bay area public schools announced school closures this week, and USF also announced closures from Monday 9/26 through Thursday 9/29.

Aaron747 · Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:50 pm

Forecast has not really improved the last 24 hours - seems like there is both slowing and slightly more northeasterly steering expected since I last saw.

phatfarmlines · Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:29 pm

Not good. A hurricane going right into Tampa Bay will be the worst case scenario.

Here's info on a weather simulation called "Hurricane Phoenix" and potential impacts to the Tampa Bay region.

Hurricane Phoenix is Tampa Bay’s devastating worst-case scenario

Source: TampaBay.com

Time marker 3:43-3:51 shows impacts to Tampa International Airport. A bit facetious as we know planes will be evacuated out prior to the storm hitting, but airside damage could be significant.

Project Phoenix Hurricane Simulation

Aaron747 · Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:34 am

phatfarmlines wrote:
Not good. A hurricane going right into Tampa Bay will be the worst case scenario.

Here's info on a weather simulation called "Hurricane Phoenix" and potential impacts to the Tampa Bay region.

Hurricane Phoenix is Tampa Bay’s devastating worst-case scenario

Source: TampaBay.com

Time marker 3:43-3:51 shows impacts to Tampa International Airport. A bit facetious as we know planes will be evacuated out prior to the storm hitting, but airside damage could be significant.

Project Phoenix Hurricane Simulation

Latest forecast discussion has high likelihood of Cat 4 landfall. Thankfully the system is speeding up so it won’t linger and wash out the central part of the state.

DIRECTFLT · Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:38 am

NOAA Image Loops of Hurricane Ian
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL092022

RAMMB-CIRA Satellite Library for Hurricane Ian
https://satlib.cira.colostate.edu/event/hurricane-ian/

N757ST · Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:11 am

Aaron747 wrote:
phatfarmlines wrote:
Not good. A hurricane going right into Tampa Bay will be the worst case scenario.

Here's info on a weather simulation called "Hurricane Phoenix" and potential impacts to the Tampa Bay region.

Hurricane Phoenix is Tampa Bay’s devastating worst-case scenario

Source: TampaBay.com

Time marker 3:43-3:51 shows impacts to Tampa International Airport. A bit facetious as we know planes will be evacuated out prior to the storm hitting, but airside damage could be significant.

Project Phoenix Hurricane Simulation

Latest forecast discussion has high likelihood of Cat 4 landfall. Thankfully the system is speeding up so it won’t linger and wash out the central part of the state.

All the modeling has it coming in as a 3.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#09L

N757ST · Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:14 am

It very well could come in as a 4, I think the modeling is a bit lagging. Either way, super super dangerous storm.

readytotaxi · Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:21 am

Tornado watch issued for Greater Orlando area as of 6am. Storm now a Cat 4.

phatfarmlines · Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:02 am

NOAA update as of 7am: Currently 1 mph shy of Cat. 5. NOAA predicting landfall in the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area, making this a near-Charley repeat. Other models I've seen are predicting a Sarasota landfall.

DIRECTFLT · Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:49 pm

Extraordinary Amount of Lightning Surrounding Hurricane Ian's Eye

https://satlib.cira.colostate.edu/wp-co ... labels.mp4

DIRECTFLT · Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:01 pm

Hurricane Ian Aviation UPDATE 28 Sept.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ji5PGBvmNkE

DIRECTFLT · Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:38 pm

Hurricane Ian Landfall Coverage: Latest Track, Live Cameras, Q&A | Tracking the Tropics on WFLA Now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeRvFHka2vA

NIKV69 · Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:04 pm

My God the video is incredible. Fort Meyers is getting hit real bad.

phatfarmlines · Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:40 am

This has to really suck for the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda/Fort Myers areas to be struck again by a powerful hurricane in less than 20 years.

I hope weather researchers are evaluating why the Tampa Bay area keeps getting so many misses with powerful hurricanes. I understand the necessity of setting up these warnings as a direct hit will be devastating to the area, but I feel all these false alarms will create hubristic attitudes amongst the residents who feel these warnings are doing nothing but "crying wolf".

Aaron747 · Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:44 am

phatfarmlines wrote:
This has to really suck for the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda/Fort Myers areas to be struck again by a powerful hurricane in less than 20 years.

I hope weather researchers are evaluating why the Tampa Bay area keeps getting so many misses with powerful hurricanes. I understand the necessity of setting up these warnings as a direct hit will be devastating to the area, but I feel all these false alarms will create hubristic attitudes amongst the residents who feel these warnings are doing nothing but "crying wolf".

No such thing as ‘crying wolf’ when your metro is mostly within 10-15ft of sea level with typical Floridian drainage infrastructure. They need to be told that repeatedly. Trust the science

GalaxyFlyer · Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:12 am

Plenty of $1-5 million homes on Sanibel Island—it’ll all be rebuilt.

Aaron747 · Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:33 am

It’s hard to be optimistic about how aerials of some of the region will look Thursday AM.

ltbewr · Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:56 pm

It may be possible 100's could be killed or seriously injured due to the coastal storm surge, flooding, wind damage including from tornadoes just in Florida alone. It is reported that 2.5 Million are without power. It is expected after crossing Florida it will regain power and go into Georgia, South Carolina, then inland, petering out in the mountains and dumping heavy rains there causing more possible flooding.This is looking really bad.

casinterest · Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:28 pm

Knocked out the causeway to Pine Island and Captiva.

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2022 ... ed-by-ian/

https://www.news-press.com/story/weathe ... 447836002/

he causeway to Sanibel Island and the Pine Island bridge are not passible and are in need of structural rebuilds, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Thursday morning.

More than 100 engineers in pairs of two will work to assess the bridges along the west coast of Florida, DeSantis said.

At this time, for Lee County, DeSantis said it's going to take time to get the power back on due to the need to rebuild structures. He said resources are currently heading to Southwest Florida including 100 portable cell towers and 300 truckloads of food and water.

Brianpr3 · Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:04 pm

I am ok in Fort Myers By lee hospital but fmb and Sanibel has been wiped out especially the Sanibel Causeway but holy hell, this was the worst ever and it was like a freight train making its closest approach

ER757 · Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:27 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
I am ok in Fort Myers By lee hospital but fmb and Sanibel has been wiped out especially the Sanibel Causeway but holy hell, this was the worst ever and it was like a freight train making its closest approach

Glad to hear you are safe. Looks like the folks on Sanibel and Captiva are in a pickle with no way off other than boat. Could take quite a while for power to be restored if crews can't get out there. Awful to see that. Vacationed there many years ago and really enjoyed it.

GalaxyFlyer · Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:58 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
I am ok in Fort Myers By lee hospital but fmb and Sanibel has been wiped out especially the Sanibel Causeway but holy hell, this was the worst ever and it was like a freight train making its closest approach

My parents, now deceased, lived in Myerlee condos off Winkler and Mom passed at Brookdale on Cypress Lake last winter. How’s that area, if you’re out yet.

casinterest · Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:04 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
I am ok in Fort Myers By lee hospital but fmb and Sanibel has been wiped out especially the Sanibel Causeway but holy hell, this was the worst ever and it was like a freight train making its closest approach

Glad you are ok in that area. How is Cape Coral doing? I expect a lot of the homes near the river took a hell of a beating from the Surge.

SRQLOT · Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:13 pm

phatfarmlines wrote:
This has to really suck for the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda/Fort Myers areas to be struck again by a powerful hurricane in less than 20 years.

I hope weather researchers are evaluating why the Tampa Bay area keeps getting so many misses with powerful hurricanes. I understand the necessity of setting up these warnings as a direct hit will be devastating to the area, but I feel all these false alarms will create hubristic attitudes amongst the residents who feel these warnings are doing nothing but "crying wolf".

There is nothing to evaluate. Tampa bay is lucky thanks to Sarasota

“Indian Legends
Some hold the belief that Sarasota is protected from hurricanes because the Native Americans who first settled there knew that it was safe from the elements.

Others believe that they blessed the lands to stay eternally safe from destructive storms and hurricanes. Still others think that it’s an ancient Indian burial ground on the lands of Sarasota that keeps it protected.”

When we got Irma in 2017 it really made this myth legend really hold true in my heart

https://villahappygator.com/hurricane-i ... 20elements.

Aaron747 · Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:40 am

The aerials are unbelievable. Hard to believe this was just a Cat 2 mere hours before landfall.

casinterest · Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:03 pm

This is the storm surge on Fort Meyers beach.

They believe it was 15 feet+

Incredible video showing just how much water came in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al8yTiCVfro&t=123s

MohawkWeekend · Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:15 pm

Looking at the pictures, any hope that material and construction labor costs might continue declining (or moderate) flew out to sea with Ian.

Where are all the construction workers going to stay? More FEMA trailers?

casinterest · Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:39 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Looking at the pictures, any hope that material and construction labor costs might continue declining (or moderate) flew out to sea with Ian.

Where are all the construction workers going to stay? More FEMA trailers?

There may need to be FEMA trailers for residents, but workers can stay in Hotels that made it through the storm.
Also tents won't be so bad during the fall and winter in Fort Meyers.

Either way, it will probably help keep Florida out of a recession,

phatfarmlines · Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:19 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
phatfarmlines wrote:
This has to really suck for the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda/Fort Myers areas to be struck again by a powerful hurricane in less than 20 years.

I hope weather researchers are evaluating why the Tampa Bay area keeps getting so many misses with powerful hurricanes. I understand the necessity of setting up these warnings as a direct hit will be devastating to the area, but I feel all these false alarms will create hubristic attitudes amongst the residents who feel these warnings are doing nothing but "crying wolf".

No such thing as ‘crying wolf’ when your metro is mostly within 10-15ft of sea level with typical Floridian drainage infrastructure. They need to be told that repeatedly. Trust the science

Oh I get that. It's just been consistent that Tampa Bay has gotten away with false flags. I fear the worst when a future major hurricane goes right into the inlet of Tampa Bay. The Fort Myers Beach video below linked by casinterest doesn't do justice to what will happen to the Tampa Bay area with that type of storm surge.

casinterest wrote:
This is the storm surge on Fort Meyers beach.

They believe it was 15 feet+

Incredible video showing just how much water came in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al8yTiCVfro&t=123s

Amazing (and yet, bewildered) that someone chose to ride out the storm in that house (0:05 time marker).

But then again, this gentleman interviewed by the news below decided to ride out the storm in his boat tethered to another boat - his boat ended up on top of a restaurant at the marina. :eyepopping:

Fort Myers Beach hardest hit by Hurricane Ian

Source: CBS Miami

MohawkWeekend · Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:21 pm

My buddy (electrician) worked on the Big Dig transferring from a Cleveland local. These guys lived in a small trailer in New Hampshire and commuted.

When you are working 6 12's the whole deal is to make as much money as you can and spend as little as possible.

Unless there are a bunch of Super 8's, they might have to build dormitories.

Kent350787 · Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:50 am

I saw in media here in Sydney that a victim was awaiting rescue from flooding in New Smyrna Beach. I thought the storm had moved up the east coast to SC?

Aaron747 · Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:00 am

What in tarnation are these morons on about?

https://twitter.com/mikesington/status/ ... qxPTWDIu7w

cjg225 · Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:36 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
I saw in media here in Sydney that a victim was awaiting rescue from flooding in New Smyrna Beach. I thought the storm had moved up the east coast to SC?

My aunt lives in New Smyrna. Apparently Volusia County got 30 inches of rain from the storm. Flooding is still receding.

GalaxyFlyer · Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:12 pm

The east coast of the US is orients on 050/230 degree axis. Florida is significantly west of NYC, for instance. The storm crossed Florida and exited into the Atlantic then curves north into SC.

jetwet1 · Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:03 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
What in tarnation are these morons on about?

https://twitter.com/mikesington/status/ ... qxPTWDIu7w

You beat me to it, when many people have lost their lives, putting out something like this is beyond disgusting.

GalaxyFlyer · Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:02 pm

God, can I get that 10 seconds back?

Kent350787 · Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:12 pm

cjg225 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
I saw in media here in Sydney that a victim was awaiting rescue from flooding in New Smyrna Beach. I thought the storm had moved up the east coast to SC?

My aunt lives in New Smyrna. Apparently Volusia County got 30 inches of rain from the storm. Flooding is still receding.

Thanks for the update. We stayed in NSB on our last US visit and drive up to SC I was trying to square it all up

ER757 · Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:34 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
What in tarnation are these morons on about?

https://twitter.com/mikesington/status/ ... qxPTWDIu7w

Damn - our cover is blown, these geniuses have found us out :sarcastic:

Aaron747 · Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:23 am

Incredible compilation video here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0WGIcg0Mt0

casinterest · Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:28 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Incredible compilation video here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0WGIcg0Mt0

It's a wild world. I do find it amazing how technology really brings home what the storm surge does.

Going to have to wait and see on how expensive all the repairs are, but now you can see why new hourses at the beach are all required to be up on pilons.

We had quite the wind in raleigh as it went through as well. Nothing compared to the coastal regions though.

mxaxai · Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:09 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Plenty of $1-5 million homes on Sanibel Island—it’ll all be rebuilt.

Of course they will - Gov. DeSantis has already requested federal funding for disaster relief. He'll make sure it goes to the right places.

Unlike previous hurricanes that hit other states, since those are clearly the wrong places to receive federal funds. Most of his fellow Republicans seem to agree, since they overwhelmingly voted against disaster relief - if they even bothered to vote at all.

GalaxyFlyer · Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:17 pm

I doubt FEMA is going to take orders from Gov DeSantis, if he even has any say in the distribution of relief funds. Agreed, there should never should have built the homes on those islands. I’ve wandered all over those barrier islands and marveled at the stupidity. It’s a sandbar with a couple billion dollars in development.

MohawkWeekend · Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:24 pm

Years ago generally there were just cottages or cinder block one story motels along the seashore. So when the hurricane came, the loss was not that great.

But insurance allowed folks to build their mansions and developers their high rises and condos Now the insurance industry wants out and the millionaires will want the Government and all the taxpayers to assume the risk. Just no.

CometII · Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:47 pm

I'm glad this is being brought up.

Let me be clear that I do feel very sorry and can sympathize with any individual, no matter how rich or poor, who loses property in these events. But the facts are clear: a lot of the people in places like Captiva Island did not lose their homes. Their homes are fine up in the Northeast, or over in Miami. Many of these are not primary residences. My point is that both manpower and funds should go 100% first to people who lost primary residence and/or their livelyhood (business). Only after all of these have been dealt with properly should all other structures be tackled (if they should be at all by federal or state funds).

DIRECTFLT · Fri Oct 07, 2022 6:02 pm

Electric vehicles catching fire in Florida after Hurricane Ian

https://nypost.com/2022/10/06/electric- ... icane-ian/

Electric car owners have seen their rides catch fire after becoming waterlogged during Hurricane Ian and it can take hours to put the conflagrations out, a top Florida official warned Thursday. As the Sunshine State recovers from the punishing Category 4 storm that made landfall last week, first responders have faced further destruction from electric vehicles that were submerged in water from the extensive flooding and later caught fire, Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer and state fire marshal, said on Twitter.

“There’s a ton of EVs disabled from Ian,” he tweeted. “As those batteries corrode, fires start.

“That’s a new challenge that our firefighters haven’t faced before. At least on this kind of scale.”

DIRECTFLT · Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:55 am

Weeks later... still Danger with Electric vehicles!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5NiWJcyrwI

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