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seb146
Posts: 25145
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sat Nov 12, 2022 4:32 am

leader1 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
leader1 wrote:

Dems funded MAGAts in several states to ensure they won GOP primaries. Absolutely brilliant strategy it turned out to be. Heck, if I were them, I absolutely would have done the same thing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... primaries/


Behind a paywall but, if it is anything like what happened here in Oregon, Democrats did not fund MAGA candidates. Democrats funded Democrats who simply used actual quotes and facts from MAGA candidates to show just how crazy they are. In our governor's race, Democrat Tina Kotek ran ads showing her opponent, Christine Drazen, was aligned with violent extremists, election deniers, and anti-abortion. Same with the race between Democrat Val Hoyle and MAGA Republican Alek Skarlatos.


What happened in OR with the race? Why did Johnson decide to run? This could have been a blowout for Kotek if Johnson didn't run.


That's probably why Johnson ran. MAGAs wanted to take the governorship and could have struck a deal with Johnson? Pure speculation on my part. Democrat Tina Kotek won.
 
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zkojq
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:33 am

leader1 wrote:
Dems funded MAGAts in several states to ensure they won GOP primaries. Absolutely brilliant strategy it turned out to be. Heck, if I were them, I absolutely would have done the same thing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... primaries/


I mean it's great in theory, but that could easily come back to bite them in the behind if they get it wrong....
 
marcelh
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:08 am

ACDC8 wrote:
I'll say one thing, watching the pushback towards Trump by his so many of his allies over the last few years is just so satisfying.


But it doesn’t change the fact that a substantial part of the GOP is undermining the democratic principles. I guess they love to go to Budapest for a holiday…
 
GDB
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:11 am

marcelh wrote:
ACDC8 wrote:
I'll say one thing, watching the pushback towards Trump by his so many of his allies over the last few years is just so satisfying.


But it doesn’t change the fact that a substantial part of the GOP is undermining the democratic principles. I guess they love to go to Budapest for a holiday…


Didn’t need to, Orban was guest of honor at the last CPAC, an event well satirized in the last season of ‘Succession’.
An event that brings to mind a lyric from a Clash song, ‘if Adolph Hitler, flew in today, they’d send a limousine anyway....’
 
bluecrew
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:39 pm

seb146 wrote:
leader1 wrote:
seb146 wrote:

Behind a paywall but, if it is anything like what happened here in Oregon, Democrats did not fund MAGA candidates. Democrats funded Democrats who simply used actual quotes and facts from MAGA candidates to show just how crazy they are. In our governor's race, Democrat Tina Kotek ran ads showing her opponent, Christine Drazen, was aligned with violent extremists, election deniers, and anti-abortion. Same with the race between Democrat Val Hoyle and MAGA Republican Alek Skarlatos.


What happened in OR with the race? Why did Johnson decide to run? This could have been a blowout for Kotek if Johnson didn't run.


That's probably why Johnson ran. MAGAs wanted to take the governorship and could have struck a deal with Johnson? Pure speculation on my part. Democrat Tina Kotek won.

Nah, you need only watch the debates to realize she's convinced of herself. She was a legit 3rd party candidate which, to my senses having been moved to this foresty homeless dystopia by my partner's job a couple months before the race, was a conservative "Democrat" who had built her brand on being that deciding swing vote. Yeah, she seems fine, she'd be cool to get a beer with, but her entire brand is basically Kyrsten Sinema +30 years.

I voted but did not mark for governor this year because I haven't been here very long, but it seems to me Tina Kotek was the least toxic of the gubernatorial candidates. Drazan is an anti-abortion nut, it was all you saw on her website until the Dobbs decision, then it was a lot of fluff pictures and crime hits. Johnson was a bit entirely tied up in her own narrative. Tina Kotek was fine: she acknowledges criticism and divides with the current governor, articulates a fairly cogent plan to fix problems in the state, and like the other two candidates, has no idea how to stop a homeless person from smoking crack in front of my garage.

Oh boy. Yeah. This is great. Love this place. (hoping partner gets fired)
 
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seb146
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:16 pm

GDB wrote:
marcelh wrote:
ACDC8 wrote:
I'll say one thing, watching the pushback towards Trump by his so many of his allies over the last few years is just so satisfying.


But it doesn’t change the fact that a substantial part of the GOP is undermining the democratic principles. I guess they love to go to Budapest for a holiday…


Didn’t need to, Orban was guest of honor at the last CPAC, an event well satirized in the last season of ‘Succession’.
An event that brings to mind a lyric from a Clash song, ‘if Adolph Hitler, flew in today, they’d send a limousine anyway....’


Not only was Orban guest of honor, but CPAC was hosted in Hungary! Attendees cheered him.
 
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NIKV69
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:31 pm

BN747 wrote:
Walker will the sideshow to watch as he stands alone trying sell his unique brand low-mentality BS....



BN747


If walker couldn't get more votes than Warnock in the election can't see him winning the runoff.
 
leader1
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sat Nov 12, 2022 4:39 pm

Alright, folks…we’re a few days after the election with a little time to digest the results. Who are your picks for the worst candidates? My two are the following:

Blake Masters, GOP candidate for AZ Senator

In spite of having a cool name, guy was awful and pure cringe. He was venture capitalist billionaire Peter Thief’s hand-picked choice and protege. For those of you who don’t know who Thiel is, he’s the guy who backed Elon Musk when the latter started PayPal. Thiel was a big Trump backer. He’s been known to have fascist sympathies and is one of the few openly gay Republican financiers. McConnell refused to spend on Masters as he thought he was a bad candidate with little chance of winning, so Thiel essentially bankrolled the campaign himself.

Masters ran an absolutely awful campaign. His ads were so bad they were funny. He came across as phony, awkward, out of touch and just plain weird. Masters also supposedly shares some of Thiel’s fascist leanings. In this ad, he’s firing a gun with a silencer into a small lake. Not sure how this appeals to people, but OK. Note that this is the same gun that Hitler used to kill himself. Funny how he emphasizes it’s German.

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/ ... 1706699776 (Masters ad)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Masters (Blake Masters)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel (Peter Thiel)


Doug Mastriano, GOP candidate for PA Governor

Mastriano is a former PA State Senator with Christian nationalist views. He claims there is no separation between church’s and state. He also attended the January 6th Trump rally and there is apparently videos of him storming the Capital Building. Off to a great start already!

Mastriano’s campaign was abysmally run. Largely shunned placing ads and directly campaigned through Facebook or Truth Social. Wouldn’t grant interviews unless it was with conservative outlets. Poorly funded and unable to hire competent consultants to steer him in the right direction, Mastriano became increasingly erratic and attended rallies with far-right militants, often espousing their views.

In short, the guy was a nut and it was no surprise he was creamed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Mastriano (Doug Mastriano)

Tough to pick who was worse between the two. Mastriano was scarier, but Masters was abysmally hilarious.
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:25 pm

leader1 wrote:
Alright, folks…we’re a few days after the election with a little time to digest the results. Who are your picks for the worst candidates?


Charlie Crist for Florida. If it was anything we saw last year with mayoral elections, past elected leaders were not voted. I'd say Crist was the worst choice for Florida Dems, even though to me he is more of a moderate Republican (he was a Republican when he governed Florida in the 2000s) where moderate Republicans don't exist in Florida at the moment.
 
ACDC8
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:37 pm

marcelh wrote:
But it doesn’t change the fact that a substantial part of the GOP is undermining the democratic principles. I guess they love to go to Budapest for a holiday…

Pushback is pushback and I'm enjoying the show :biggrin:
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:33 am

phatfarmlines wrote:
leader1 wrote:
Alright, folks…we’re a few days after the election with a little time to digest the results. Who are your picks for the worst candidates?


Charlie Crist for Florida. If it was anything we saw last year with mayoral elections, past elected leaders were not voted. I'd say Crist was the worst choice for Florida Dems, even though to me he is more of a moderate Republican (he was a Republican when he governed Florida in the 2000s) where moderate Republicans don't exist in Florida at the moment.


Yep...will Dem ever learn that rehash doesn't work?

They did that in VA in 2021 giving Youngkin a win (not a big one but still he won) b/c they ran Terry McAuliffe of all people. But sure, they ran Charlie Crist of all people against Desantis, and is somehow surprised that he lost by 20-points. For comparison, even Beto (who's an awful candidate) only lose to Abbott by like 10 points, and Florida is supposed to be more "purple" than Texas.
=====================================
Anyway, looks like Cortez Masto will retain her seat in the Senate, giving Dems a 50-49 with the GA runoff to go. If Warnock win, Manchin will finally be irrelevant.

Too bad Adam Frisch will likely lose to Boebert by like 1000 votes. But if he somehow pull it off, Dems may even retain the house lol. Take that, GQP.
 
victrola
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:54 am

The Republican civil war is about to begin. The Trump DeSantis war will assure that neither of them will be viable candidates in 2024. However, this would be an ideal time for a traditional moderate Republican candidate to run for President. Let DeSantis and Trump destroy each other and the moderate can go on to win the nomination. However, the moderate will probably still not be able to prevail in the election as the MAGA extremists will not come out to vote.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:44 am

victrola wrote:
The Republican civil war is about to begin. The Trump DeSantis war will assure that neither of them will be viable candidates in 2024. However, this would be an ideal time for a traditional moderate Republican candidate to run for President. Let DeSantis and Trump destroy each other and the moderate can go on to win the nomination. However, the moderate will probably still not be able to prevail in the election as the MAGA extremists will not come out to vote.


Again, the whole "war" / "feud" seems to be totally one-sided as in that man child keep go on and on and rant and rant more. Unless I'm not aware of things but did Desantis ever even reply to TFG's rant? I don't recall him doing so. Desantis is not even somebody like Liz Cheney who outright call out Trump.

Now, if there's any "war" it'll be Murdoch running hit pieces on Trump - and I won't be surprised as Murdoch was never the biggest Trump fan anyway.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:45 am

Avatar2go wrote:
Also Kelly in Arizona projected to win the Senate seat, and Finchem projected to lose the SoS seat, as an election denier.

In Nevada, Marchant also projected to lose the SoS seat, as an election denier. And Cortez-Masto is likely to take the Senate seat, with the districts remaining to count.

That will mean the Democrats retain control of the Senate, and probably add a seat with Warnock in Georgia.

Another very good night for Democrats. I suspect Hobbs will follow as Arizona governor, defeating Lake who is also an election denier.


Cortex-Masto has taken NV. That idiot Merchant also lost the SoS seat.

AZ looking to reverse the split ticket in NV, with Kelly's Senate victory and still looking likely Lake can take the gubernatorial seat.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... 22/senate/

Now that the Dems maintain Senate control, let's watch how fast the talking points and war chest dry up for Walker.
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:55 am

Aaron747 wrote:

Now that the Dems maintain Senate control, let's watch how fast the talking points and war chest dry up for Walker.


I don't see DeSantis campaigning for Walker. This one is all on Trump.
 
BN747
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:14 am

Had the Dems lost the Senate by 1 to 4 seats as Hannity and guests nearly guaranteed.. and the House fell short say...10+ seats,
even that would fall short of qualifying as a Pyrrhic victory, this was a near blowout given the historic unfolding still occurring.

Youth Vote spoke up huge for the first time era, David Hogg and his 'had enough of the NRA' cadre and young women wanting secure the
very rights their mothers and grandmothers had, young sexual-self discovery, self re-defining right seeking souls are emboldened by recognizing their very individual rights
too will be recognized and respected.
Democracy was the only conduit for that chance to become reality.
People of color succeeded in the latest round of their never ending fight for equal (voting) rights.
Old people will not except being disrespected and do want reasonable medical prescriptions.

White Women, however, stayed with the status quo of white male domination America by being okay with denying women anatomical autonomy..even in cases of rape child births.
What kind of woman would be okay with that in this day and age?

These women fell victim to this brilliant master stroke of racist genius used by Geo. Bush Sr with the selection of Clarence Thomas , a self-hating Black man who will rule against any and all other people of color every chance he gets...but this time, it wasn't racial, it sexual, sexism..a clever character assassination in the cradle.

18 year old Hillary D Rodham, as soon as she delivered that commencement speech at Wellesley College.

https://www.wellesley.edu/events/commen ... dentspeech

She was a bulleye target by the 'establishment'...the character attacks never relented, swaying generations of generations of young White women
to steer clear of and not be anything like Hillary.

White Men meanwhile were told how to be like Reagan, Bush (and now tragically - Trump) "strong"...but certain hold hate for Hillary.

But sexism, nobody defines it and defends it better than Republicans.

I say by 2024, young White women while grow smarter as this last trend portends..and Hillary haters will, well still be around.

Should the trend continued may a coalition solidify.

And 2022 Dem win assures a Ukraine win! When Democracy wins, the World wins!

BN747
 
cpd
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:44 am

victrola wrote:
The Republican civil war is about to begin. The Trump DeSantis war will assure that neither of them will be viable candidates in 2024. However, this would be an ideal time for a traditional moderate Republican candidate to run for President. Let DeSantis and Trump destroy each other and the moderate can go on to win the nomination. However, the moderate will probably still not be able to prevail in the election as the MAGA extremists will not come out to vote.


Maybe the Republican civil war needs to happen - let the right wing extremists dig up dirt and mud and throw it at each other. Maybe sensible conservative candidates will replace them after some time out in the wilderness.
 
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Aesma
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 6:28 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
victrola wrote:
The Republican civil war is about to begin. The Trump DeSantis war will assure that neither of them will be viable candidates in 2024. However, this would be an ideal time for a traditional moderate Republican candidate to run for President. Let DeSantis and Trump destroy each other and the moderate can go on to win the nomination. However, the moderate will probably still not be able to prevail in the election as the MAGA extremists will not come out to vote.


Again, the whole "war" / "feud" seems to be totally one-sided as in that man child keep go on and on and rant and rant more. Unless I'm not aware of things but did Desantis ever even reply to TFG's rant? I don't recall him doing so. Desantis is not even somebody like Liz Cheney who outright call out Trump.

Now, if there's any "war" it'll be Murdoch running hit pieces on Trump - and I won't be surprised as Murdoch was never the biggest Trump fan anyway.


Casual foreign observer here but the way the ballot boxes are still hot and this has started already is quite stunning. There clearly seems to be a lot of money and power behind DeSantis, and of course Trump has his MAGA base, who he convinced he was fighting for, against the "establishment", so now if said establishment is backing DeSantis, a war it is indeed.

And yes Murdoch has dumped on Trump already.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 6:44 am

So what exactly will Trump announce next week? The latest weather report?

I would be so relieved if populism à la Trump would come to an end…
 
GDB
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:38 am

N14AZ wrote:
So what exactly will Trump announce next week? The latest weather report?

I would be so relieved if populism à la Trump would come to an end…


Aside from still being stunned that the instigator of an attempted violent coup and hoarder of sensitive documents he had no right to have in his mini Saddam style palace in Florida is still walking around (rich and white no doubt helps), maybe he should run in 2024 as an independent?
If a ‘nation of laws’ for some strange reason cannot try him for sedition and/or the Espionage Act.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:08 am

Aaron747 wrote:
AZ looking to reverse the split ticket in NV, with Kelly's Senate victory and still looking likely Lake can take the gubernatorial seat.


I still have hopes for Hobbs in AZ. Lake would need 55% of the remaining vote to win, and she hasn't done that well so far. Last batch was 52%. So Hobbs still has a clear path to victory.
 
cpd
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:16 am

Aesma wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
victrola wrote:
The Republican civil war is about to begin. The Trump DeSantis war will assure that neither of them will be viable candidates in 2024. However, this would be an ideal time for a traditional moderate Republican candidate to run for President. Let DeSantis and Trump destroy each other and the moderate can go on to win the nomination. However, the moderate will probably still not be able to prevail in the election as the MAGA extremists will not come out to vote.


Again, the whole "war" / "feud" seems to be totally one-sided as in that man child keep go on and on and rant and rant more. Unless I'm not aware of things but did Desantis ever even reply to TFG's rant? I don't recall him doing so. Desantis is not even somebody like Liz Cheney who outright call out Trump.

Now, if there's any "war" it'll be Murdoch running hit pieces on Trump - and I won't be surprised as Murdoch was never the biggest Trump fan anyway.


Casual foreign observer here but the way the ballot boxes are still hot and this has started already is quite stunning. There clearly seems to be a lot of money and power behind DeSantis, and of course Trump has his MAGA base, who he convinced he was fighting for, against the "establishment", so now if said establishment is backing DeSantis, a war it is indeed.

And yes Murdoch has dumped on Trump already.


Maybe Trump can encourage his loyal supporters to storm Murdoch media outlets like they did the capital? :lol:


Unfortunately he might just try exactly that…
 
ltbewr
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:23 pm

Even with the win in Nevada for the US Senate, Democrats will still barely control it.They will still have to rely on 2 DINO's, 2 Independents and the VP to break ties.Their narrow margin however is critical as being able to control who gets into the Federal Judiciary and certain high level appointments, be a check point on bad laws in case the House is taken over by Republicans.

Perhaps the big takeaway from this election is that voters want moderation. They generally don't want, with a few exceptions, extremists on either the left or right, especially election deniers. Many wanted to continue with abortion being legal across the USA despite the Dobbs ruling by the Supreme Court. Several state referendums as to keeping abortion legal passed, 4 of 5 to end enslavement of those in jails/prisons in their states, several more states legalized marijuana. Voters are far more accepting LGTBQ's in political office as seen in at least 2 governors and a number of other races.

From their narrow margins, Democrats have to recognize they don't have a hard mandate on key issues. They are still seen as weak on crime, immigration/border control, inflation, support higher taxes, more social welfare spending and too much to the left on certain social and diversity issues for many voters. Both parties may take hard stands on certain issues and bills with resulting gridlock until a crises. Perhaps the best hope is some cooperation on legislation.to deal with those issues in a fair way.
 
bennett123
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:06 pm

Would either side benefit from gridlock?.
 
luckyone
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:25 pm

Let’s see how many metaphors I can indulge in, here. I think the biggest takeaway continues to be that Trump is self-limiting. He’s great for the up-close view but he’s a disaster at the 30,000ft view. It’s clear that GOP candidates will need to court his favor, but unless he moderates his presence he will poison the well. The one who actually needs to realize this is Trump himself.
bennett123 wrote:
Would either side benefit from gridlock?.

I don’t think either party wants gridlock because then they actually have to work. The American people will be the beneficiaries of gridlock. Nothing outrageous or sweeping could be done—the economy historically tends to do pretty well with some degree of split because nobody can muck with regulation too much. My hope is that moderation will then become novel and necessary.
 
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scbriml
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:22 pm

luckyone wrote:
The one who actually needs to realize this is Trump himself.


Good luck with that, he couldn't be less self-aware.
 
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scbriml
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:24 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
Let us start with a common sense immigration plan instead of just letting anyone walk in and go from there.


The US immigration policy is not to just let anyone walk in. Again this is a conservative media trope & standard, part of the overall bogeyman strategy that failed to create the Red Wave. But didn't work because most people recognize it as being completely untrue.


Red wave? Barely a red ripple.
 
luckyone
Posts: 4796
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:29 pm

scbriml wrote:
luckyone wrote:
The one who actually needs to realize this is Trump himself.


Good luck with that, he couldn't be less self-aware.

Agreed. He is recklessly self-indulgent and unfortunately the GOP is going to have to really hurt in order to reign him in. I suspect that most of the GOP leadership is silently rooting for the legal action to stick.
 
wingman
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:40 pm

Back to the House - this one seems a very tough path for the Dems. They could possibly add another 10-12 seats but 218 is almost certainly out of reach. It'll be interesting to watch McCarthy, a proven and long-time Trump sycophant, try to balance his fringe buddies against a much larger block of GOP reps that have seen the darkness that Trump represents and want to move on to (or back to) a more moderate GOP. I don't envy McCarthy's job but he does deserve every soul-crushing 18 hour day that comes his way over the next 2 years. Everyone, and I mean everyone, that licked Trump's boots over the past 6 years needs to pay the full price for what they did to this country.
 
Newark727
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 5:44 pm

wingman wrote:
Back to the House - this one seems a very tough path for the Dems. They could possibly add another 10-12 seats but 218 is almost certainly out of reach. It'll be interesting to watch McCarthy, a proven and long-time Trump sycophant, try to balance his fringe buddies against a much larger block of GOP reps that have seen the darkness that Trump represents and want to move on to (or back to) a more moderate GOP. I don't envy McCarthy's job but he does deserve every soul-crushing 18 hour day that comes his way over the next 2 years. Everyone, and I mean everyone, that licked Trump's boots over the past 6 years needs to pay the full price for what they did to this country.


If past is prologue the GOP-controlled House will be a ship of fools regardless of how large their majority is, or who is leading it.
 
phluser
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 5:51 pm

phatfarmlines wrote:
leader1 wrote:
Alright, folks…we’re a few days after the election with a little time to digest the results. Who are your picks for the worst candidates?


Charlie Crist for Florida. If it was anything we saw last year with mayoral elections, past elected leaders were not voted. I'd say Crist was the worst choice for Florida Dems, even though to me he is more of a moderate Republican (he was a Republican when he governed Florida in the 2000s) where moderate Republicans don't exist in Florida at the moment.


Val Demings should have been the Democratic candidate for governor, over Senate, there. She’d still lose but possibly by fewer percentage points. She could at least fight for voting rights, end of gerrymandering and other issues more effectively, and hopefully use her police background up. Abortion wasn’t on the ballot in FL though.

And for Senate then, maybe the Democrats should have supported an independent like in UT.

Democrats are a lost cause in FL and some extent OH as well.

I don’t think their wins in PA are that are guaranteed for lasting blueness for some time. Just that the Republicans (or Trump) selected weak or abysmal candidates.
 
leader1
Posts: 490
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Re: 2022 US Election

Sun Nov 13, 2022 6:21 pm

wingman wrote:
Back to the House - this one seems a very tough path for the Dems. They could possibly add another 10-12 seats but 218 is almost certainly out of reach. It'll be interesting to watch McCarthy, a proven and long-time Trump sycophant, try to balance his fringe buddies against a much larger block of GOP reps that have seen the darkness that Trump represents and want to move on to (or back to) a more moderate GOP. I don't envy McCarthy's job but he does deserve every soul-crushing 18 hour day that comes his way over the next 2 years. Everyone, and I mean everyone, that licked Trump's boots over the past 6 years needs to pay the full price for what they did to this country.


The ironic thing about Dems losing House control is that it will be because of them losing seats in deep blue NY. I live in one of those flipped districts and I’m not surprised at all. NYS Dems are in disarray since Cuomo left. They continue this and the state has a real possibility of becoming purple.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 6:34 pm

phluser wrote:

I don’t think their wins in PA are that are guaranteed for lasting blueness for some time. Just that the Republicans (or Trump) selected weak or abysmal candidates.


The MAGA candidates have been plagued by the Trump litmus test of subscribing to his stolen election claims. That helps them with the base, but works against them with other voters. It also limits the candidate pool to those who are willing to go along with those claims.

After the 2022 midterms, we should see that trend diminishing before 2024, since the results have not been favorable to Republicans.
 
luckyone
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 6:57 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
phluser wrote:

I don’t think their wins in PA are that are guaranteed for lasting blueness for some time. Just that the Republicans (or Trump) selected weak or abysmal candidates.


The MAGA candidates have been plagued by the Trump litmus test of subscribing to his stolen election claims. That helps them with the base, but works against them with other voters. It also limits the candidate pool to those who are willing to go along with those claims.

After the 2022 midterms, we should see that trend diminishing before 2024, since the results have not been favorable to Republicans.

It will all hinge on Trump. He’s the bratty kid who’s more than willing to break the toy before he lets anybody else play with it.
 
Ken777
Posts: 10234
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:05 pm

scbriml wrote:
luckyone wrote:
The one who actually needs to realize this is Trump himself.


Good luck with that, he couldn't be less self-aware.


Just as well - he'll drift on to multiple indictments and won't understand why people don't like him. One simple "Guilty" for a Felony and he will won't be able to be President again.

A simple indictment will be sufficient for the GOP to push harder to get rid of the bastard.

Even the outstanding victories of the democrats this year is more than sufficient for the GOP to consider him as a dead weight on our political system. That victory will make it easier for DA's at various levels to go for an indictment, Good Times for everyone else.

Mayme the RNC folks will cancel the GOP paying for his legal feel as Rollie Polly continues to hide the millions that ignorant folks "donate" to him.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 21720
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:02 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
After the 2022 midterms, we should see that trend diminishing before 2024, since the results have not been favorable to Republicans.


I think you're ascribing a level of critical thinking and logic that is simply beyond the Trump fan base.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 18600
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:02 pm

Ken777 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
luckyone wrote:
The one who actually needs to realize this is Trump himself.


Good luck with that, he couldn't be less self-aware.


Just as well - he'll drift on to multiple indictments and won't understand why people don't like him. One simple "Guilty" for a Felony and he will won't be able to be President again.

A simple indictment will be sufficient for the GOP to push harder to get rid of the bastard.

Even the outstanding victories of the democrats this year is more than sufficient for the GOP to consider him as a dead weight on our political system. That victory will make it easier for DA's at various levels to go for an indictment, Good Times for everyone else.

Mayme the RNC folks will cancel the GOP paying for his legal feel as Rollie Polly continues to hide the millions that ignorant folks "donate" to him.


Actually, in his mind the yard signs and people lining the streets to see him proves that he's incredibly popular, regardless of what the data actually says.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 21720
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:04 pm

Ken777 wrote:
Mayme the RNC folks will cancel the GOP paying for his legal feel as Rollie Polly continues to hide the millions that ignorant folks "donate" to him.


I've never quite understood what hard-working folks believe Trump has done for them that they continue to donate money to his endless grifts.
 
luckyone
Posts: 4796
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: 2022 US Elections

Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:11 pm

scbriml wrote:
Ken777 wrote:
Mayme the RNC folks will cancel the GOP paying for his legal feel as Rollie Polly continues to hide the millions that ignorant folks "donate" to him.


I've never quite understood what hard-working folks believe Trump has done for them that they continue to donate money to his endless grifts.

Years of unchanging circumstances and somebody singing them a new tune.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 1060
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: 2022 US Election

Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:18 pm

leader1 wrote:

The ironic thing about Dems losing House control is that it will be because of them losing seats in deep blue NY.



The GOP will only hold House control by 4 or less seats in the end IMO. This will actually be due to Ron DeSantis gerrymandering an extra 4 House seats for the GOP in Florida (by breaking up mainly black districts). If the electoral map had stayed the way it was Democrats would have had the House majority after this election. In addition to other voter suppression tactics DeSantis has used:

https://publicintegrity.org/politics/el ... or-voting/

It’s not just FL, other states (almost all Republican) are as bad. In Wisconsin despite a Democratic Governor winning election the Dems were gerrymandered to only 2 out of the 8 House seats.
 
leader1
Posts: 490
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:44 am

Re: 2022 US Election

Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:02 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
leader1 wrote:

The ironic thing about Dems losing House control is that it will be because of them losing seats in deep blue NY.



The GOP will only hold House control by 4 or less seats in the end IMO. This will actually be due to Ron DeSantis gerrymandering an extra 4 House seats for the GOP in Florida (by breaking up mainly black districts). If the electoral map had stayed the way it was Democrats would have had the House majority after this election. In addition to other voter suppression tactics DeSantis has used:

https://publicintegrity.org/politics/el ... or-voting/


And GOP flipped four NY seats. All of them are in and around NYC. If you ask me, that’s what killed Dems’ House prospects. I live in one of the flipped districts and I’m not surprised it happened. NYS Dems are in disarray and ran poor campaigns, if they even showed up to campaign. They chose lousy candidates in most of those districts, especially mine. They ignored the most pressing issue in those districts, which is crime. They basically gaslit voters’ concerns and claimed misinformation, which isn’t true because crime has increased by 30%. I know many people who always vote Democrat, but they split their ballots because they were disgusted with how the NYS Democratic Party has become and some of the candidates they fielded. One of them actually WORKS for the Democratic Party. Crazy. Heck, even I split the ticket. I haven’t voted GOP since 2006.

I will say this - NYS has a very real possibility of becoming a purple state in the future if the NYS Democratic Party doesn’t get its act together. But I don’t have faith that they will. After the election, the governor and state legislature leaders went down to Puerto Rico. Talk about priorities.

If I were the DNC, I would be absolutely furious with the NYS Democratic Party and just do a top-down reorganization and cleansing before it’s too late and they lose the state for good.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 18600
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Re: 2022 US Elections

Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:09 am

Some of the internal GOP postmortem messaging is just as crazy as progressive postmortem discussion on the Dems’ side in 2020. Consider this piece in American Spectator:

https://spectator.org/if-republicans-lo ... ight-back/

What world are these people living in? Exit polling clearly shows women and independents rallied more on abortion than polling indicated, yet this guy argues GOP would have won more seats by fighting harder on the pro-life position!?? Beyond tone deaf.
 
Avatar2go
Posts: 2585
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:41 am

Re: 2022 US Elections

Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:15 am

Seems like Dems were at fault in NY. They pushed too far on redistricting, and then fought amongst themselves over the results. Rather than playing as a team.

In FL, the redistricting held off challenges, and the GOP worked together to take full advantage.

In the end, it cost the Dems the House majority, although no one really saw that it would be so close.

Ironic that in NY, the courts would be less partisan in their reviews, and that was more costly than FL courts which are more partisan. But that's how democracy works, it remains fair even when fairness benefits the opposition.
 
D L X
Posts: 12910
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

Re: 2022 US Elections

Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:32 am

I don’t watch Fox News. Can someone confirm that they are or are not informing their viewership that the dems have won the Senate? It does not appear so on the website.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 1060
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: 2022 US Elections

Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:47 am

D L X wrote:
I don’t watch Fox News. Can someone confirm that they are or are not informing their viewership that the dems have won the Senate? It does not appear so on the website.


https://www.foxnews.com/

Yep - no clear statement that the Dems have control of the Senate, you have to read between the lines in their infographic. First and Second articles are hit pieces on the Democrats.

Republicans truly live in an alternate reality. A casual browse of that website and you wouldn’t even know the GOP mostly failed last week
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 1060
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: 2022 US Elections

Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:51 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Some of the internal GOP postmortem messaging is just as crazy as progressive postmortem discussion on the Dems’ side in 2020.


How was progressive postmortem discussion on the progressive side “crazy” in 2020?

If anything Democrats should run further left. On policy positions the American people want government run healthcare, strict gun laws, pro climate action, pro migrant etc. Fox News polls even confirmed this in the aftermath of 2020:

https://twitter.com/existentialfish/sta ... a-201.html
 
leader1
Posts: 490
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:44 am

Re: 2022 US Elections

Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:46 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Some of the internal GOP postmortem messaging is just as crazy as progressive postmortem discussion on the Dems’ side in 2020.


How was progressive postmortem discussion on the progressive side “crazy” in 2020?

If anything Democrats should run further left. On policy positions the American people want government run healthcare, strict gun laws, pro climate action, pro migrant etc. Fox News polls even confirmed this in the aftermath of 2020:

https://twitter.com/existentialfish/sta ... a-201.html


Most Americans favor those positions on the issues you mentioned and the Democratic Party generally supports those initiatives. Maybe not totally pro-migrant (they support DACA’s pathway to citizenship, which is what the poll you showed suggested, but not amnesty for everyone), but most everything else they support. The progressives’ issue is crime, where they diverge from most of the electorate. Their positions and it being outspoken on that issue cost the Dems a lot of winnable seats in 2020 and the the party didn’t get as many House seats as they could have because of that. Yet progressives insisted they were correct and refused to take culpability for those losses, even though polling indicated the opposite and the electoral results showed. They just doubled-down.

This is exactly what happened in NY in 2022. Progressives in the NY Legislature pushed through some real dumb criminal justice laws that have caused some real harm. And when crime increased because of those laws, they just blamed the media or simply denied the problem existed even though statistics proved otherwise. This is why they did much worse than expected and lost some very winnable races within the state. Like my district, for instance, which is moderate and suburban, yet they ran a campaign and candidate that was very progressive on crime.

My friend at the NYS Dem party tells me that the infighting is really nasty right now with both sides blaming each other. It’s likely to get a lot worse and more crazy because some of these members are pretty nutty.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 18600
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: 2022 US Elections

Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:22 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Some of the internal GOP postmortem messaging is just as crazy as progressive postmortem discussion on the Dems’ side in 2020.


How was progressive postmortem discussion on the progressive side “crazy” in 2020?

If anything Democrats should run further left. On policy positions the American people want government run healthcare, strict gun laws, pro climate action, pro migrant etc. Fox News polls even confirmed this in the aftermath of 2020:

https://twitter.com/existentialfish/sta ... a-201.html


The other poster covered the issue better than me, but progressives were focused on softening criminal justice approaches, and unlike other issues, that is NOT favored by a majority of independents. The other issue is the Dems in general are not doing enough to generate engagement in the youth vote. There has been some progress, yes, but GOP has been far more effective driving turnout in the over-65 cohort.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3853
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: 2022 US Elections

Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:52 am

leader1 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Some of the internal GOP postmortem messaging is just as crazy as progressive postmortem discussion on the Dems’ side in 2020.


How was progressive postmortem discussion on the progressive side “crazy” in 2020?

If anything Democrats should run further left. On policy positions the American people want government run healthcare, strict gun laws, pro climate action, pro migrant etc. Fox News polls even confirmed this in the aftermath of 2020:

https://twitter.com/existentialfish/sta ... a-201.html


Most Americans favor those positions on the issues you mentioned and the Democratic Party generally supports those initiatives. Maybe not totally pro-migrant (they support DACA’s pathway to citizenship, which is what the poll you showed suggested, but not amnesty for everyone), but most everything else they support. The progressives’ issue is crime, where they diverge from most of the electorate. Their positions and it being outspoken on that issue cost the Dems a lot of winnable seats in 2020 and the the party didn’t get as many House seats as they could have because of that. Yet progressives insisted they were correct and refused to take culpability for those losses, even though polling indicated the opposite and the electoral results showed. They just doubled-down.

This is exactly what happened in NY in 2022. Progressives in the NY Legislature pushed through some real dumb criminal justice laws that have caused some real harm. And when crime increased because of those laws, they just blamed the media or simply denied the problem existed even though statistics proved otherwise. This is why they did much worse than expected and lost some very winnable races within the state. Like my district, for instance, which is moderate and suburban, yet they ran a campaign and candidate that was very progressive on crime.

My friend at the NYS Dem party tells me that the infighting is really nasty right now with both sides blaming each other. It’s likely to get a lot worse and more crazy because some of these members are pretty nutty.


NYS Dem is indeed a mess. Hopefully this serves as a wake up call after they takes things for granted for too long.

But this is also the same state where AOC came from - and she is definitely behind some of the NYS infighting. Normally in congress, sure, Pelosi basically shuts her up. But within her state? Not so much...

Avatar2go wrote:
phluser wrote:

I don’t think their wins in PA are that are guaranteed for lasting blueness for some time. Just that the Republicans (or Trump) selected weak or abysmal candidates.


The MAGA candidates have been plagued by the Trump litmus test of subscribing to his stolen election claims. That helps them with the base, but works against them with other voters. It also limits the candidate pool to those who are willing to go along with those claims.

After the 2022 midterms, we should see that trend diminishing before 2024, since the results have not been favorable to Republicans.


All I'll say is, noticed how you don't have people being crybaby about how they lose the election b/c of it's "stolen" this time around? Not even those nutjob in Arizona?

Michigan Dems and also PA Dems are definitely thankful for those crazy GQP candidates, though - in Michigan Democrats took back the state house and state senate. PA? State Senate remain in R's hand (but it's also b/c 15 R's vs. 10 D's are not up for election) while state house is truly going down to the wire but looks to be flipping to D's.

Aaron747 wrote:
Some of the internal GOP postmortem messaging is just as crazy as progressive postmortem discussion on the Dems’ side in 2020. Consider this piece in American Spectator:

https://spectator.org/if-republicans-lo ... ight-back/

What world are these people living in? Exit polling clearly shows women and independents rallied more on abortion than polling indicated, yet this guy argues GOP would have won more seats by fighting harder on the pro-life position!?? Beyond tone deaf.


LOL talk about truly tone deaf. All in the while ignored the big daddy in the room that is Trump and how his candidates are so "tired of winning" that they lost every single competitive races.
=================================
Side note - if (a big if) GOP did indeed get the House as expected, the Speaker race will be fun to watch. The Trumpian wing is still there, and doesn't exactly like Kevin McCarthy.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4673
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: 2022 US Elections

Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:58 pm

phluser wrote:

Back in 2020, Klobuchar went from obscurity to a rising star for a few weeks. I thought she had potential. Not an elitist and had grit, and wasn’t so far to the Left as Bernie Sanders, or woke like Warren, Cory Booker or Kamala Harris.

But the Black voters, BLM, shot her down.

You just have to see Sonny Hostin, from The View, grill her which was way over the top. The local BLM of Minnesota also protested her. Blacks didn’t trust her and were upset over a case of a kid that was imprisoned. The kid has been released since, so it is non-issue now, but she likely won’t run again in 2024, as she has to run for her Senate seat re-election.

For some other candidates , it’s completely different treatment. With Gavin Newsom, many women on the Left get goosebumps when they see him in person. He will win the black women vote, a very influential vote in the Dem primaries. These women will vote for him over Kamala Harris.

I’d be concerned if he has substance though, and if he is too far Left just by being a California politician to win moderates and independents.

Maybe there are other Democrats. Josh Shapiro, who just won the PA governor race, would seem to be an excellent Presidential candidate, but we will have to wait.


I think Amy Klobuchar was made the flavor of the month back in 2020. The democrat establishment didn't have faith in Biden and were looking to see who could beat Bernie and ran through every candidate.

Her record as a prosecutor is completely fair game as it was with Kamala Harris. This is the woman who was potentially seen as being light on Derek Chauvin back in 2006. This did dash any VP hopes she had.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 282580002/

I saw the Jared Polis on Bill Maher on Friday and he impressed me. He has a very common sense approach to governing and is very centrist.
He does happen to be gay but seems like a very real politician for the people.

Regarding Newsom. That is a shallow but probably very accurate take that the women will simply listen to the pretty boy who is just as centrist as Harris and Klobuchar. He will have trouble in the swing states and he is easy to attack on his record.
I think DeSantis has a better chance in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania etc. A California democrat does not equal a Michigan democrat. +

sierrakilo44 wrote:
How would Deaantis appeal to the swing states? The rust belt went further Democrat, MI and PA state legislatures now controlled by Democrats. AZ now trending to leaning Dem.

Democrats had the best state performance at the midterms since 1934, and I’d argue that’s with the Republicans following DeSantis’s “anti woke” messaging.


Florida has grown quite considerably and his tenure hasn't been a clusterf*ck. He eeked out the 2018 win and then wins the state by 20 points, upping his minority support and taking a county like Miami-Dade. Outside of his spat with Disney, he kept the abortion rules at 12 weeks which is in line with Europe and seems to play nice with the White House.

bennett123 wrote:
Perhaps if Manchin thinks he can do better....


I would like Manchin to face a primary threat in 2024. Put Richard Ojeda up against him to at least give him a scare.

The only asset that Joe Manchin is to the democrats is that he will vote with the democrats for judges and supreme court justices. Economically he is republican.

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