Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Avatar2go wrote:The election I'm watching is Hobbs vs Lake in Arizona. it's a pretty clear contest of truth vs falsehood. Hobbs defied the AZ Senate on their 2020 election audit madness, and was fully vindicated, not only by the audit itself, but by the courts as well. She is a truth-teller, and is probably the last person the MAGA's want as governor.
Lake has continued to make false claims about the election and other issues. She is a true believer, with Trump in her corner, parroting his positions almost perfectly. She is his mini-me, and probably has the same aspirations for national politics. She is likely the last person the Democrats want as governor.
So it will boil down to which side can best turn out the vote against the other. What is the price, and the cost, of honesty? We're going to find out!
GalaxyFlyer wrote:No predictions here. It’ll be a R Congress, however, not a prediction; a certainty.
Fear and hate, alright. I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year and hate that they will continue to expand government powers, reducing liberty.
dampfnudel wrote:You know Dems in New York are nervous when Biden has to come here to rally for Hochul right before the election. It’s going to be a close election here in New York, one of many across this country. I think Lake will win in Arizona.
apodino wrote:Wisconsin - Incumbent Rep. Ron Johnson faces a challenge from Dem. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Barnes has flopped as a candidate and even though Johnson is an elitist, with the winds favoring the GOP, I think he holds on here.
dampfnudel wrote:You know Dems in New York are nervous when Biden has to come here to rally for Hochul right before the election. It’s going to be a close election here in New York, one of many across this country.
GalaxyFlyer wrote:I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year.
GalaxyFlyer wrote:No predictions here. It’ll be a R Congress, however, not a prediction; a certainty.
Fear and hate, alright. I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year and hate that they will continue to expand government powers, reducing liberty.
Aaron747 wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:No predictions here. It’ll be a R Congress, however, not a prediction; a certainty.
Fear and hate, alright. I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year and hate that they will continue to expand government powers, reducing liberty.
For someone in their 30s that would be an understandable concern, but pearl clutching over healthy assets by folks 60+ is honestly slightly amusing, as at that time we’ve got basically a pull of the slot machine lever for time left to use them.
N14AZ wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year.
So how high would inflation be if the Republicans would run the country?
ER757 wrote:No predictions, just will be glad when Wednesday rolls around so I can watch the local news without 20 or 30 political ads in an hour broadcast. It's one for candidate A followed immediately by one for candidate B and we've seen them all at least 100 times already. The Senate candidates here have both spent wildly (Murray and Smiley) and there's one very contentious House race between Larkin and Schrier which has led to an insane number of commercials for both sides.
ltbewr wrote:As to the US House, several 'blue' states lost Democrat controlled or leading districts in the post-2020 census reapportionment. A number of states with full or partial control of their governments by Republicans have revised House (as well as state legislative) districts heavily their favor. It is generally expected that the House will flip to Republicans in part due to that along with inflation, immigration, taxation and government spending.
ltbewr wrote:As to the Senate, to me the best hope is for the Democrats to keep their very narrow control, but more likely Republicans taking a 1-2 seat majority.
ltbewr wrote:I expect the news media to be very careful and not call who likely has won or lost in the races for certain highly contested US Senate seats and State Governors until overnight, or like 2 AM in the morning or even later to allow for counts of all ballots, so not to not look bad.
casinterest wrote:The GOP is working on fear, and hate. Pretty powerful tools if you can keep the voters ignoranct and uninformed. That hate will turn against them should they be elected and start to mess in items that affect people personally.
I think people are fearful of the economy and put too much stock in lies about who is responsible. It is easier to blame politicians than themselves for taking and spending windfalls made as their houses went up in high values.
apodino wrote:
I think you are right. Best case for Dems is a 50/50 senate right now IMO.
apodino wrote:ltbewr wrote:As to the US House, several 'blue' states lost Democrat controlled or leading districts in the post-2020 census reapportionment. A number of states with full or partial control of their governments by Republicans have revised House (as well as state legislative) districts heavily their favor. It is generally expected that the House will flip to Republicans in part due to that along with inflation, immigration, taxation and government spending.
I didn't talk about gerrymandering in my original post, but it is a factor in some places, such as Wisconsin, Texas and Florida. However there are a number of seats in play in deep blue states so a GOP flip won't simply be because of Gerrymandering or redistricting.ltbewr wrote:As to the Senate, to me the best hope is for the Democrats to keep their very narrow control, but more likely Republicans taking a 1-2 seat majority.
I think you are right. Best case for Dems is a 50/50 senate right now IMO.ltbewr wrote:I expect the news media to be very careful and not call who likely has won or lost in the races for certain highly contested US Senate seats and State Governors until overnight, or like 2 AM in the morning or even later to allow for counts of all ballots, so not to not look bad.
I agree with this. One issue that the MAGA crowd is going to raise is if a lot of late counted votes all break in the Dems favor, you are really going to see the cheating rhetoric rant up. Two years ago, what happened on election night is exactly what every pundit said going in would happen, a lot of early and mail-in votes would drop late and would all trend Blue. The MAGA crowd never paid attention to this prior to the election, and feel it was proof of cheating on election night. Even now there is a lot of posts telling people not to early vote because it would give people info on how many votes are needed to defeat a MAGA candidate. Sadly these people aren't stupid either, these are well educated folks. The problem is they were treated like crap for so many years by both parties, and finally saw in Donald Trump someone who paid attention to them. He didn't do jack to help them, but because he said the right things, everyone believed that he did all this great stuff.casinterest wrote:The GOP is working on fear, and hate. Pretty powerful tools if you can keep the voters ignoranct and uninformed. That hate will turn against them should they be elected and start to mess in items that affect people personally.
I think people are fearful of the economy and put too much stock in lies about who is responsible. It is easier to blame politicians than themselves for taking and spending windfalls made as their houses went up in high values.
Both parties are working on fear. The dems are out there telling you that you will lose democracy unless you vote for us, and that you will lose all this other stuff. I honestly don't know what either party actually stands for and would do if elected because neither party has told us. Democrats had two years to raise the minimum wage, enact paid family leave, get us better health care, and make it easier for workers to get paid and go after big business. They did nothing but pass an infrastructure bill loaded with special interests, a different bill that did the same thing, and continue to write blank checks to Ukraine without debate or accountability. And anytime something that would help the average person came up, "Sorry the parliamentarian won't let us do that". And some democrats insisted on tax breaks for the rich in order to pass anything, despite Obama criticizing the GOP for doing the same thing. (Obama is right, but ignores that Dems are doing it too). The GOP isn't pushing anything other than social issues, and if they pursue the same economics as in the past that won't work either.
(Disclaimer - I am right of center socially especially on Abortion, and I am very left on Fiscal and Economic issues)
bennett123 wrote:apodino wrote:casinterest wrote:The GOP is working on fear, and hate. Pretty powerful tools if you can keep the voters ignoranct and uninformed. That hate will turn against them should they be elected and start to mess in items that affect people personally.
I think people are fearful of the economy and put too much stock in lies about who is responsible. It is easier to blame politicians than themselves for taking and spending windfalls made as their houses went up in high values.
Both parties are working on fear. The dems are out there telling you that you will lose democracy unless you vote for us, and that you will lose all this other stuff. I honestly don't know what either party actually stands for and would do if elected because neither party has told us. Democrats had two years to raise the minimum wage, enact paid family leave, get us better health care, and make it easier for workers to get paid and go after big business. They did nothing but pass an infrastructure bill loaded with special interests, a different bill that did the same thing, and continue to write blank checks to Ukraine without debate or accountability. And anytime something that would help the average person came up, "Sorry the parliamentarian won't let us do that". And some democrats insisted on tax breaks for the rich in order to pass anything, despite Obama criticizing the GOP for doing the same thing. (Obama is right, but ignores that Dems are doing it too). The GOP isn't pushing anything other than social issues, and if they pursue the same economics as in the past that won't work either.
(Disclaimer - I am right of center socially especially on Abortion, and I am very left on Fiscal and Economic issues)
Did the Democrats have the votes to pass those things?.
Avatar2go wrote:The election I'm watching is Hobbs vs Lake in Arizona. it's a pretty clear contest of truth vs falsehood. Hobbs defied the AZ Senate on their 2020 election audit madness, and was fully vindicated, not only by the audit itself, but by the courts as well. She is a truth-teller, and is probably the last person the MAGA's want as governor.
Lake has continued to make false claims about the election and other issues. She is a true believer, with Trump in her corner, parroting his positions almost perfectly. She is his mini-me, and probably has the same aspirations for national politics. She is likely the last person the Democrats want as governor.
So it will boil down to which side can best turn out the vote against the other. What is the price, and the cost, of honesty? We're going to find out!
Avatar2go wrote:Oprah Winfrey has given her endorsement to Fetterman, despite having a long-standing business relationship with Oz.
https://www.npr.org/2022/11/04/11343409 ... =18&f=1001
stratosphere wrote:
I have seen Hobbs and Lake. Katie Hobbs seems like a dope. She will not debate Kari Lake because Kari Lake will mop the floor with her and she knows it. Lake is skilled from her media days and the media cannot play her and it shows.
N14AZ wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year.
So how high would inflation be if the Republicans would run the country?
GalaxyFlyer wrote:N14AZ wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year.
So how high would inflation be if the Republicans would run the country?
Based on history, it was Republicans with Volcker’s work that broke the back of inflation in the early 80s, so I’d say back 1-2%. It was Volcker and Greenspan, with the political backing of Republican President Reagan that wrung inflation out. I will not put all the blame on Biden’s fiscal policy, but add in the ridiculous helicopter money over the last decade by Obama and Trump and Bernanke p, it’s very predictable. We’ll be seeing 8% interest rates soon enough.
Scorpio wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:N14AZ wrote:So how high would inflation be if the Republicans would run the country?
Based on history, it was Republicans with Volcker’s work that broke the back of inflation in the early 80s, so I’d say back 1-2%. It was Volcker and Greenspan, with the political backing of Republican President Reagan that wrung inflation out. I will not put all the blame on Biden’s fiscal policy, but add in the ridiculous helicopter money over the last decade by Obama and Trump and Bernanke p, it’s very predictable. We’ll be seeing 8% interest rates soon enough.
I always find it amusing to see how so many Americans seem completely unaware of the concept of 'the rest of the world'. High inflation rates are a problem all over the world right now, and are a consequence of both the economic upturn after Covid and the war in Ukraine. It's not the fault of whoever is in control in Washington. In Europe, inflation is higher than in the US, both in the EU and in countries outside the EU. It's high in countries with left-wing governments, centrist governments, and right-wing governments. Why? Because most of it is outside of their immediate control. Yet somehow, in the US, it's Biden's fault...
Scorpio wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:N14AZ wrote:So how high would inflation be if the Republicans would run the country?
Based on history, it was Republicans with Volcker’s work that broke the back of inflation in the early 80s, so I’d say back 1-2%. It was Volcker and Greenspan, with the political backing of Republican President Reagan that wrung inflation out. I will not put all the blame on Biden’s fiscal policy, but add in the ridiculous helicopter money over the last decade by Obama and Trump and Bernanke p, it’s very predictable. We’ll be seeing 8% interest rates soon enough.
I always find it amusing to see how so many Americans seem completely unaware of the concept of 'the rest of the world'. High inflation rates are a problem all over the world right now, and are a consequence of both the economic upturn after Covid and the war in Ukraine. It's not the fault of whoever is in control in Washington. In Europe, inflation is higher than in the US, both in the EU and in countries outside the EU. It's high in countries with left-wing governments, centrist governments, and right-wing governments. Why? Because most of it is outside of their immediate control. Yet somehow, in the US, it's Biden's fault...
leader1 wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:No predictions here. It’ll be a R Congress, however, not a prediction; a certainty.
Fear and hate, alright. I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year and hate that they will continue to expand government powers, reducing liberty.
What liberties have you lost the last two years? Just curious, but do you think we’re living in some dictatorship?
casinterest wrote:Scorpio wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Based on history, it was Republicans with Volcker’s work that broke the back of inflation in the early 80s, so I’d say back 1-2%. It was Volcker and Greenspan, with the political backing of Republican President Reagan that wrung inflation out. I will not put all the blame on Biden’s fiscal policy, but add in the ridiculous helicopter money over the last decade by Obama and Trump and Bernanke p, it’s very predictable. We’ll be seeing 8% interest rates soon enough.
I always find it amusing to see how so many Americans seem completely unaware of the concept of 'the rest of the world'. High inflation rates are a problem all over the world right now, and are a consequence of both the economic upturn after Covid and the war in Ukraine. It's not the fault of whoever is in control in Washington. In Europe, inflation is higher than in the US, both in the EU and in countries outside the EU. It's high in countries with left-wing governments, centrist governments, and right-wing governments. Why? Because most of it is outside of their immediate control. Yet somehow, in the US, it's Biden's fault...
The GOP is a party that has cultivated ignorance and abuse within their ranks.They have the special benefits gained when most of the members are addicted to propoganda and hate spewed from right wing media outlets.
They could care less about progress or what causes an issue such as inflation when there is more money and anger to be cultivated by prolonging the problem and blaming other Americans.
GalaxyFlyer wrote:casinterest wrote:Scorpio wrote:I always find it amusing to see how so many Americans seem completely unaware of the concept of 'the rest of the world'. High inflation rates are a problem all over the world right now, and are a consequence of both the economic upturn after Covid and the war in Ukraine. It's not the fault of whoever is in control in Washington. In Europe, inflation is higher than in the US, both in the EU and in countries outside the EU. It's high in countries with left-wing governments, centrist governments, and right-wing governments. Why? Because most of it is outside of their immediate control. Yet somehow, in the US, it's Biden's fault...
The GOP is a party that has cultivated ignorance and abuse within their ranks.They have the special benefits gained when most of the members are addicted to propoganda and hate spewed from right wing media outlets.
They could care less about progress or what causes an issue such as inflation when there is more money and anger to be cultivated by prolonging the problem and blaming other Americans.
I’ve been around a good bit of the world and are quite aware of inflation rates outside the US. Inflation is being the result of way too much helicopter money thrown around by loose fiscal policy, parting COVID, partly near-zero interest rates. As Walter Baghot said “John Bull can stand a lot but not 2% interest rates.” It’s going to take a lot of pain to wring it out. It was not only Biden, it was the decade since 2008 when zero interest started. It brought asset bubbles, crashes, speculation, inflation.
Aaron747 wrote:Bill Maher's sober take on what's really at stake tomorrow:
https://youtu.be/NEHZcPb5STg?t=408
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKVBvooZ2c8
Essentially, his argument boils down to:
1. Dems have run on the wrong messaging, and failed to be strict with guard rails
2. Combination of GOP control of Congress + Trump running in 2024 guarantees that even if Trump loses in '24, he will show up for Inauguration Day anyway, and contest the election with all of the sycophants he has in place in various states
3. The MAGA wing of the GOP will not give power back once they've got it. Institutional norms will be ignored going forward.
4. Not enough Americans care about politics to undo this situation
Avatar2go wrote:stratosphere wrote:
I have seen Hobbs and Lake. Katie Hobbs seems like a dope. She will not debate Kari Lake because Kari Lake will mop the floor with her and she knows it. Lake is skilled from her media days and the media cannot play her and it shows.
Hobbs was smart enough not to give a public platform to a conspiracy theorist and election denier. She made the calculation that doing so will not hurt her with people who understand the falsehoods in Lake's position. And it would not help her with those who believe the falsehoods and conspiracy theories, without evidence.
It may very well be that there are enough true believers in Arizona to elect Lake. We'll have to see. Either way, there will be a lot of very unhappy people in Arizona come Wednesday.
casinterest wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:casinterest wrote:
The GOP is a party that has cultivated ignorance and abuse within their ranks.They have the special benefits gained when most of the members are addicted to propoganda and hate spewed from right wing media outlets.
They could care less about progress or what causes an issue such as inflation when there is more money and anger to be cultivated by prolonging the problem and blaming other Americans.
I’ve been around a good bit of the world and are quite aware of inflation rates outside the US. Inflation is being the result of way too much helicopter money thrown around by loose fiscal policy, parting COVID, partly near-zero interest rates. As Walter Baghot said “John Bull can stand a lot but not 2% interest rates.” It’s going to take a lot of pain to wring it out. It was not only Biden, it was the decade since 2008 when zero interest started. It brought asset bubbles, crashes, speculation, inflation.
But that story doesn't fly either as 12 years of low interest itself didn't cause the inflation. What we are stuck in now is scarcity of resources due to prolonged effects of Covid while demand creeps up. No amount of governing solves that issue, especially when the global economy relies on parts from all over.
We are also in a place where Gasoline compnies are profiteering on escalated gasoline prices that have wildly diverted from the actual cost of oil.
So to place the blame on Government when the issue is multifaceted and related to private business decisions as well as government decisions is disenginous as it gets, and the fact that so many American GOP folks buy into that drivel makes me wonder whether we are heading towards fascism as the people are trusting the government leaders far too much in the GOP.
Aaron747 wrote:Bill Maher's sober take on what's really at stake tomorrow:
https://youtu.be/NEHZcPb5STg?t=408
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKVBvooZ2c8
Essentially, his argument boils down to:
1. Dems have run on the wrong messaging, and failed to be strict with guard rails
2. Combination of GOP control of Congress + Trump running in 2024 guarantees that even if Trump loses in '24, he will show up for Inauguration Day anyway, and contest the election with all of the sycophants he has in place in various states
3. The MAGA wing of the GOP will not give power back once they've got it. Institutional norms will be ignored going forward.
4. Not enough Americans care about politics to undo this situation
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Inflation is not profiteering, it’s too much money chasing too few goods. Yes, we’ve had supply side problems, but printing money at 1% interest is the source of problem. The USG will never pay off its debt of $31 trillion, so inflation is the only way over time to bring the debt down to sustainable levels. As usual, the less well-off will be hurt the most. We could have a sustained boom, as post-WW II, to bring down the debt, but don’t bet on it.
StarAC17 wrote:Aaron747 wrote:Bill Maher's sober take on what's really at stake tomorrow:
https://youtu.be/NEHZcPb5STg?t=408
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKVBvooZ2c8
Essentially, his argument boils down to:
1. Dems have run on the wrong messaging, and failed to be strict with guard rails
2. Combination of GOP control of Congress + Trump running in 2024 guarantees that even if Trump loses in '24, he will show up for Inauguration Day anyway, and contest the election with all of the sycophants he has in place in various states
3. The MAGA wing of the GOP will not give power back once they've got it. Institutional norms will be ignored going forward.
4. Not enough Americans care about politics to undo this situation
1) They have not only run on the wrong messaging but many democrats now represent the elite Professional Managerial Class and many have contempt for the working class. What you will see on Tuesday is the volume of black an Hispanics voting for the GOP, this trend began in 2020. The republicans are stealing the working class voters and if they actually do things to better their situation then that is who they will vote for (that is the big if). Bernie Sanders has been sounding the alarm on this for his entire political career but the democrats don't listen, he is the old socialist from Vermont who is still the most popular politician in the United States. The democrats have focus on woke issues that most blue collar individuals don't care about or disagree with. If you talk to everyday people they don't give a hoot about pronouns and certain words like Latinx, the trans things confuses most people over 35 now and even I don't get it. Furthermore most people behind the scenes are politically incorrect people who are crass and insult each other. Crime and homeless issues are also issues democrats are losing on.
Add to that most of the Covid lockdowns were in democratic run jurisdictions where the leaders kids were in private schools that were open. People don't forget the hypocrisy of people like Gavin Newsom, Muriel Bowser, London Breed etc. Say what you will about the GOP, they kept their states open and didn't attend fancy dinners and galas unmasked when school kids were masked and in some places may still be. Furthermore many non-essential businesses such as Hollywood were allowed to remain open when small businesses weren't. People will remember this tomorrow.
2) I don't think Trump even gets the nomination in 2024. I think Ron Desantis will get it or there will be a fight for it. I think there are enough people in the GOP that know that Trump doesn't want to govern that he will be a liability. If the GOP wants to have long term success the don't rely on Donald Trump.
3) Unless the MAGA crowd absolutely controls the military and police then its not a legitimate threat because I don't think the MAGA crowd has the competence to actually operate a coup. Trump was being dragged out of the Whitehouse on January 20th, 2021 regardless of what he says. There is no higher level of security around DC than on January 20th.
4) Absolutely true. The average citizen doesn't pay attention to politics but their boss does, their landlord does, their pastor does etc. If US voting rates were like they were in France then the interests of the working class would be paid attention to.
GalaxyFlyer wrote:casinterest wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:
I’ve been around a good bit of the world and are quite aware of inflation rates outside the US. Inflation is being the result of way too much helicopter money thrown around by loose fiscal policy, parting COVID, partly near-zero interest rates. As Walter Baghot said “John Bull can stand a lot but not 2% interest rates.” It’s going to take a lot of pain to wring it out. It was not only Biden, it was the decade since 2008 when zero interest started. It brought asset bubbles, crashes, speculation, inflation.
But that story doesn't fly either as 12 years of low interest itself didn't cause the inflation. What we are stuck in now is scarcity of resources due to prolonged effects of Covid while demand creeps up. No amount of governing solves that issue, especially when the global economy relies on parts from all over.
We are also in a place where Gasoline compnies are profiteering on escalated gasoline prices that have wildly diverted from the actual cost of oil.
So to place the blame on Government when the issue is multifaceted and related to private business decisions as well as government decisions is disenginous as it gets, and the fact that so many American GOP folks buy into that drivel makes me wonder whether we are heading towards fascism as the people are trusting the government leaders far too much in the GOP.
Inflation is not profiteering, it’s too much money chasing too few goods. Yes, we’ve had supply side problems, but printing money at 1% interest is the source of problem. The USG will never pay off its debt of $31 trillion, so inflation is the only way over time to bring the debt down to sustainable levels. As usual, the less well-off will be hurt the most. We could have a sustained boom, as post-WW II, to bring down the debt, but don’t bet on it.
phluser wrote:
I agree with many of the points you listed, but have the Democrats, as in members in Congress, WH or governors, focused on woke issues, like pronoun awareness? That seems to be more a Left cultural focus by some, not a Democrat focus, even though Democrat politicians are supported by the Left.
It's interesting you mentioned Gavin Newsom. He's not on the ticket , but I could see him running in 2024, and Hollywood and the Left all supportive of his run. Even if there is a massive red wave, the Democrat Party doesn't seem ready to change. The moderates will be voted out. The Squad still around, the governors of the bluest of states still in tact, Elizabeth Warren still around to represent the Party even though Democrats don't want her, and no focus on middle of the country, blue collar voters, etc.
StarAC17 wrote:Newsom's Covid hypocrisy goes beyond the French Laundry incident. Why did he keep Hollywood open when closing outdoor dining in a state that its essentially sunny every day. Why is there a huge homeless problem that seemed to have proliferated in the past 5 years.