The Midterm elections are on Tuesday and I wanted to make some predictions on close races. This post does not endorse any candidate; rather it is a non partisan look at what is going on. I am focusing on the close races, if I don't cover a race it means that I do not believe the race will be close.

Governors

New York - Democrat Kathy Hocul is facing a stronger than expected challenge from Republican Lee Zeldin. This race is a lot closer than people have expected. I still think that in the End, Hocul pulls it out, but the Dems are having to pour way more money in this race than they wanted.

Arizona - This race has been a very nasty race between MAGA Republican Kari Lake, and Establishment Democrat Katie Hobbs. While Lake has been saying some controversial stuff on the campaign trail, her message is resonating and this coupled with Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake has helped Lake. I think Lake pulls this one out by 1-2 points.

Oregon - Among the more bizarre races this cycle is the Governor Race in Oregon. The two main candidates are Republican Christine Drazan, and Democrat Tina Kotek, with Democrat turned Independent Betsy Johnson mounting a third party challenge. Johnson could prove to be a spoiler as Drazan is actually running very well. Crime has become a big issue in this race, and that tends to favor the GOP over the Dems. I predict we do not find the outcome of this race for a few days.

Michigan - Democrat Gretchen Witmer is fighting for reelection, and the Republicans have nominated MAGA republican Tudor Dixon. Dixon has been gaining in recent weeks, but I predict that the presence of an Abortion initiative on the Ballot will push Witmer to reelection.

Senate Races

Pennsylvania - In one of the highest profile races in the country, MAGA republican Dr. Oz is running against Dem Lt. Gov John Fetterman. Fetterman is more popular and liked in the state, but his health has been a question all election season, and the fact that control of the senate could hinge on this race has made this race very close. Oz has a slight lead in the polls at the moment. My gut tells me that Fetterman will pull this off, but we may not know for days.

Georgia - MAGA Republican Herschel Walker is running against incumbent Dem. Raphael Warnock. The only thing certain about this race is that an African American will win. Walker has not been a great candidate, but Georgia is a Red Leaning state. I predict this election will end up in a run off. If the GOP ends up with the Senate without Georgia, I think Warnock will win the runoff. Otherwise all bets are off.

New Hampshire - Incumbent Maggie Hassan is facing a challenge from Little known MAGA republican Don Bolduc. The GOP establishment gave up on this race when he was nominated and poured no money into his campaign. However he has pulled this race very close in spite of that. I can see Bolduc springing the upset here, given the Libertarian leanings of the state.

Nevada - Incumbent Dem Catherine Cortez-Masto is facing a tough reelection from Establishment republican Adam Laxalt. This state was decimated by the pandemic and that gives the GOP an opening here. I can see Laxalt pulling it off, but though Harry Reid is no longer with us, watch for his machine to be able to help Masto here.

Wisconsin - Incumbent Rep. Ron Johnson faces a challenge from Dem. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Barnes has flopped as a candidate and even though Johnson is an elitist, with the winds favoring the GOP, I think he holds on here.

Arizona - Incumbent Dem. Mark Kelly is being challenged by MAGA Republican Blake Masters. Masters has said some crazy stuff, and Kelly has actually distanced himself policy wise from a lot of what the national Dem party stands for. Kelly is generally a likeable figure. The one thing helping Masters is Lakes' strong Governor run, which could bring him more votes. I do still see Kelly winning this race.

Washington - Longtime Dem. Senator Patty Murray is facing a challenge from little known republican Tiffany Smiley. This race has tightened and will be close with the winds. I do think however that Washington is too blue for Smiley to pull it out, but keep an eye on this one.

North Carolina - A race flying under the radar pits Dem Cheri Beasley against Republican Ted Budd. This race had been tight for weeks, but Budd seems to be opening up a lead, and I think he wins.

I would love to do a whole article on the house as well, but that would take a lot of space. What I will say is a lot of House Dems who should be doing well are in tough reelection battles, and the GOP is competitive in places they usually aren't, such as Rhode Island and Connecticut. The GOP will win the house, it's just a question of what the number will be.

Anyways, that's what I have. Discussion?

The election I'm watching is Hobbs vs Lake in Arizona. it's a pretty clear contest of truth vs falsehood. Hobbs defied the AZ Senate on their 2020 election audit madness, and was fully vindicated, not only by the audit itself, but by the courts as well. She is a truth-teller, and is probably the last person the MAGA's want as governor.

Lake has continued to make false claims about the election and other issues. She is a true believer, with Trump in her corner, parroting his positions almost perfectly. She is his mini-me, and probably has the same aspirations for national politics. She is likely the last person the Democrats want as governor.

So it will boil down to which side can best turn out the vote against the other. What is the price, and the cost, of honesty? We're going to find out!

Avatar2go wrote:

The election I'm watching is Hobbs vs Lake in Arizona. it's a pretty clear contest of truth vs falsehood. Hobbs defied the AZ Senate on their 2020 election audit madness, and was fully vindicated, not only by the audit itself, but by the courts as well. She is a truth-teller, and is probably the last person the MAGA's want as governor.

Lake has continued to make false claims about the election and other issues. She is a true believer, with Trump in her corner, parroting his positions almost perfectly. She is his mini-me, and probably has the same aspirations for national politics. She is likely the last person the Democrats want as governor.

So it will boil down to which side can best turn out the vote against the other. What is the price, and the cost, of honesty? We're going to find out!

The GOP is working on fear, and hate. Pretty powerful tools if you can keep the voters ignoranct and uninformed. That hate will turn against them should they be elected and start to mess in items that affect people personally.

I think people are fearful of the economy and put too much stock in lies about who is responsible. It is easier to blame politicians than themselves for taking and spending windfalls made as their houses went up in high values.

I pretty much agree with the assessment by the opening poster. I will note I am a Democrat in my voting, haven't voted for a Republican in any office since 1992 and before that from 1972, only voted Republicans in certain local and state legislature positions. I must note that I disagree with several policy positions of Democrats, including as to immigration and certain extreme positions on social issues.

As to the US House, several 'blue' states lost Democrat controlled or leading districts in the post-2020 census reapportionment. A number of states with full or partial control of their governments by Republicans have revised House (as well as state legislative) districts heavily their favor. It is generally expected that the House will flip to Republicans in part due to that along with inflation, immigration, taxation and government spending.

As to the Senate, to me the best hope is for the Democrats to keep their very narrow control, but more likely Republicans taking a 1-2 seat majority.

What will be a big issue on election night and possibly in the following days, will be if certain pro-Republican extremists try to intimidate election officials, try to physically force their way into ballot counting sites, get in as court allowed 'observers' but overstep their allowed positions, put large numbers of them surrounding those sites to watch for any tiny flaw to exploit saying the Democrats are trying to fix the results. You also have biased elections officials that may take positions to limit voting rights and proper counts. That could be particular severe in Democrat party dominated cities in AZ, GA, NV, PA, WI where narrow margins for candidates for governor and US senate.

I expect the news media to be very careful and not call who likely has won or lost in the races for certain highly contested US Senate seats and State Governors until overnight, or like 2 AM in the morning or even later to allow for counts of all ballots, so not to not look bad.

Was going to start this thread, glad you did.

My following winners in their elections are,

Zeldin
Lake
In Oregon the Dem wins
Whitmer
Desantis

Senate
Oz
Warnock
Hassan
Nevada is a dead heat I want Mastro to lose
Kelly
Murray

My thoughts…

Guvs
Kari Lake will win in AZ
Hochul will hold on in NY
No idea in OR
Whitmer in MI

Senate
Fetterman will win in PA, Oz can’t overcome carpetbagger problem
Warnock by a hair in GA, although Kemp on the ticket may pull Walker across the line
Hassan holds on in NH
No idea in NV
Kelly survives in AZ, Masters was just too kooky early on and his flip-flops won’t be enough
Murray keeps WA
No idea in NC

House
Goes Republican by a lot

Oprah Winfrey has given her endorsement to Fetterman, despite having a long-standing business relationship with Oz.

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/04/11343409 ... =18&f=1001

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

No predictions here. It’ll be a R Congress, however, not a prediction; a certainty.

Fear and hate, alright. I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year and hate that they will continue to expand government powers, reducing liberty.

For someone in their 30s that would be an understandable concern, but pearl clutching over healthy assets by folks 60+ is honestly slightly amusing, as at that time we’ve got basically a pull of the slot machine lever for time left to use them.

You know Dems in New York are nervous when Biden has to come here to rally for Hochul right before the election. It’s going to be a close election here in New York, one of many across this country. I think Lake will win in Arizona.

dampfnudel wrote:

You know Dems in New York are nervous when Biden has to come here to rally for Hochul right before the election. It’s going to be a close election here in New York, one of many across this country. I think Lake will win in Arizona.

Yep for sure. I almost think brining in Hillary and Kamala hurt Hochul.

No predictions, just will be glad when Wednesday rolls around so I can watch the local news without 20 or 30 political ads in an hour broadcast. It's one for candidate A followed immediately by one for candidate B and we've seen them all at least 100 times already. The Senate candidates here have both spent wildly (Murray and Smiley) and there's one very contentious House race between Larkin and Schrier which has led to an insane number of commercials for both sides.

apodino wrote:

Wisconsin - Incumbent Rep. Ron Johnson faces a challenge from Dem. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Barnes has flopped as a candidate and even though Johnson is an elitist, with the winds favoring the GOP, I think he holds on here.

I'm very interested to see how the governor's race plays out. Four years ago Evers won by roughly 1% in what was a good year for Democrats, and now it's shaping up to be a good year for Republicans, so that probably doesn't bode well for him. The polls seem to have substantially undercounted Republican support in recent years as well. Johnson trailed in practically every single poll in 2016 and he still won by a few points.

dampfnudel wrote:

You know Dems in New York are nervous when Biden has to come here to rally for Hochul right before the election. It’s going to be a close election here in New York, one of many across this country.

This is the best chance Republicans can ask for. Zeldin actually winning would still be a shock though.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year.

So how high would inflation be if the Republicans would run the country?

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

No predictions here. It’ll be a R Congress, however, not a prediction; a certainty.

Fear and hate, alright. I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year and hate that they will continue to expand government powers, reducing liberty.

What liberties have you lost the last two years? Just curious, but do you think we’re living in some dictatorship?

ER757 wrote:

No predictions, just will be glad when Wednesday rolls around so I can watch the local news without 20 or 30 political ads in an hour broadcast. It's one for candidate A followed immediately by one for candidate B and we've seen them all at least 100 times already. The Senate candidates here have both spent wildly (Murray and Smiley) and there's one very contentious House race between Larkin and Schrier which has led to an insane number of commercials for both sides.

The holiday "buy clothes, buy cars, buy jewelry for the loved ones in your life" ads will be a blessed relief from the mudslinging political ads. And texts! And emails!

ltbewr wrote:

As to the US House, several 'blue' states lost Democrat controlled or leading districts in the post-2020 census reapportionment. A number of states with full or partial control of their governments by Republicans have revised House (as well as state legislative) districts heavily their favor. It is generally expected that the House will flip to Republicans in part due to that along with inflation, immigration, taxation and government spending.

I didn't talk about gerrymandering in my original post, but it is a factor in some places, such as Wisconsin, Texas and Florida. However there are a number of seats in play in deep blue states so a GOP flip won't simply be because of Gerrymandering or redistricting.

ltbewr wrote:

As to the Senate, to me the best hope is for the Democrats to keep their very narrow control, but more likely Republicans taking a 1-2 seat majority.

I think you are right. Best case for Dems is a 50/50 senate right now IMO.

ltbewr wrote:

I expect the news media to be very careful and not call who likely has won or lost in the races for certain highly contested US Senate seats and State Governors until overnight, or like 2 AM in the morning or even later to allow for counts of all ballots, so not to not look bad.

I agree with this. One issue that the MAGA crowd is going to raise is if a lot of late counted votes all break in the Dems favor, you are really going to see the cheating rhetoric rant up. Two years ago, what happened on election night is exactly what every pundit said going in would happen, a lot of early and mail-in votes would drop late and would all trend Blue. The MAGA crowd never paid attention to this prior to the election, and feel it was proof of cheating on election night. Even now there is a lot of posts telling people not to early vote because it would give people info on how many votes are needed to defeat a MAGA candidate. Sadly these people aren't stupid either, these are well educated folks. The problem is they were treated like crap for so many years by both parties, and finally saw in Donald Trump someone who paid attention to them. He didn't do jack to help them, but because he said the right things, everyone believed that he did all this great stuff.

casinterest wrote:

The GOP is working on fear, and hate. Pretty powerful tools if you can keep the voters ignoranct and uninformed. That hate will turn against them should they be elected and start to mess in items that affect people personally.

I think people are fearful of the economy and put too much stock in lies about who is responsible. It is easier to blame politicians than themselves for taking and spending windfalls made as their houses went up in high values.

Both parties are working on fear. The dems are out there telling you that you will lose democracy unless you vote for us, and that you will lose all this other stuff. I honestly don't know what either party actually stands for and would do if elected because neither party has told us. Democrats had two years to raise the minimum wage, enact paid family leave, get us better health care, and make it easier for workers to get paid and go after big business. They did nothing but pass an infrastructure bill loaded with special interests, a different bill that did the same thing, and continue to write blank checks to Ukraine without debate or accountability. And anytime something that would help the average person came up, "Sorry the parliamentarian won't let us do that". And some democrats insisted on tax breaks for the rich in order to pass anything, despite Obama criticizing the GOP for doing the same thing. (Obama is right, but ignores that Dems are doing it too). The GOP isn't pushing anything other than social issues, and if they pursue the same economics as in the past that won't work either.

(Disclaimer - I am right of center socially especially on Abortion, and I am very left on Fiscal and Economic issues)

apodino wrote:

I think you are right. Best case for Dems is a 50/50 senate right now IMO.

I think Cortez-Mastro is in real trouble. That would be their best case. Not to mention Biden has pissed off Manchin something fierce.

bennett123 wrote:

apodino wrote:

casinterest wrote:

The GOP is working on fear, and hate. Pretty powerful tools if you can keep the voters ignoranct and uninformed. That hate will turn against them should they be elected and start to mess in items that affect people personally.

I think people are fearful of the economy and put too much stock in lies about who is responsible. It is easier to blame politicians than themselves for taking and spending windfalls made as their houses went up in high values.

Both parties are working on fear. The dems are out there telling you that you will lose democracy unless you vote for us, and that you will lose all this other stuff. I honestly don't know what either party actually stands for and would do if elected because neither party has told us. Democrats had two years to raise the minimum wage, enact paid family leave, get us better health care, and make it easier for workers to get paid and go after big business. They did nothing but pass an infrastructure bill loaded with special interests, a different bill that did the same thing, and continue to write blank checks to Ukraine without debate or accountability. And anytime something that would help the average person came up, "Sorry the parliamentarian won't let us do that". And some democrats insisted on tax breaks for the rich in order to pass anything, despite Obama criticizing the GOP for doing the same thing. (Obama is right, but ignores that Dems are doing it too). The GOP isn't pushing anything other than social issues, and if they pursue the same economics as in the past that won't work either.

(Disclaimer - I am right of center socially especially on Abortion, and I am very left on Fiscal and Economic issues)

Did the Democrats have the votes to pass those things?.

The democrats did not have the votes thanks to Manchin and Senema pulling the football at all chances.

So we are stuck in a world where the democrats couldn't get anything done becasue the Republicans wouldn't let them, and then the GOP screams look at the economy, whole destroying social issues at a state level.

Letting the GOP win back the house and Senate will prove to America what it did in 2018, they don't belong there.
Perhaps the Dems keep the Senate, but for now it looks like the GOP takes the house. We are going to see some serious stinky stunts from the GOP on the "debt Ceiling" and on social issues .

Avatar2go wrote:

The election I'm watching is Hobbs vs Lake in Arizona. it's a pretty clear contest of truth vs falsehood. Hobbs defied the AZ Senate on their 2020 election audit madness, and was fully vindicated, not only by the audit itself, but by the courts as well. She is a truth-teller, and is probably the last person the MAGA's want as governor.

Lake has continued to make false claims about the election and other issues. She is a true believer, with Trump in her corner, parroting his positions almost perfectly. She is his mini-me, and probably has the same aspirations for national politics. She is likely the last person the Democrats want as governor.

So it will boil down to which side can best turn out the vote against the other. What is the price, and the cost, of honesty? We're going to find out!

I have seen Hobbs and Lake. Katie Hobbs seems like a dope. She will not debate Kari Lake because Kari Lake will mop the floor with her and she knows it. Lake is skilled from her media days and the media cannot play her and it shows.

Avatar2go wrote:

Oprah Winfrey has given her endorsement to Fetterman, despite having a long-standing business relationship with Oz.

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/04/11343409 ... =18&f=1001

Oprah does not have any clout and has no relevance anymore so her endorsement is pretty meaningless. But then again I think most of Hollywood endorsements are worthless.

stratosphere wrote:

I have seen Hobbs and Lake. Katie Hobbs seems like a dope. She will not debate Kari Lake because Kari Lake will mop the floor with her and she knows it. Lake is skilled from her media days and the media cannot play her and it shows.

Hobbs was smart enough not to give a public platform to a conspiracy theorist and election denier. She made the calculation that doing so will not hurt her with people who understand the falsehoods in Lake's position. And it would not help her with those who believe the falsehoods and conspiracy theories, without evidence.

It may very well be that there are enough true believers in Arizona to elect Lake. We'll have to see. Either way, there will be a lot of very unhappy people in Arizona come Wednesday.

N14AZ wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year.

So how high would inflation be if the Republicans would run the country?

What is the cause of the high inflation in the US? Is it the same that has pushed it over 10% in the UK, Germany and high single digits in most of Europe as well?

If it isn't, what would the GOP have done differently to lower it? and what will they do to change it?


Personally, I think the short sightnedness of voters and presumption that the US is somehow immune to world markets, prices, challenges is obsurd. Everything that is happening in the US is happening in other places. High fuel costs, high food costs, low consumer confidence - why are fuel prices so high right now?

My other opinions on the GOP I will refrain from sharing but I will say I find it incredible in this day and age to be able to hear and see everything somebody says, how so many Americans seem to think they are an answer to anything is beyond me.

And some from the GOP are having fun:

https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES/status/1589297226307833859?s=20&t=oZg2lyx6jJgK9u7CGnDo5w

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

N14AZ wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year.

So how high would inflation be if the Republicans would run the country?

Based on history, it was Republicans with Volcker’s work that broke the back of inflation in the early 80s, so I’d say back 1-2%. It was Volcker and Greenspan, with the political backing of Republican President Reagan that wrung inflation out. I will not put all the blame on Biden’s fiscal policy, but add in the ridiculous helicopter money over the last decade by Obama and Trump and Bernanke p, it’s very predictable. We’ll be seeing 8% interest rates soon enough.

I always find it amusing to see how so many Americans seem completely unaware of the concept of 'the rest of the world'. High inflation rates are a problem all over the world right now, and are a consequence of both the economic upturn after Covid and the war in Ukraine. It's not the fault of whoever is in control in Washington. In Europe, inflation is higher than in the US, both in the EU and in countries outside the EU. It's high in countries with left-wing governments, centrist governments, and right-wing governments. Why? Because most of it is outside of their immediate control. Yet somehow, in the US, it's Biden's fault...

Scorpio wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

N14AZ wrote:

So how high would inflation be if the Republicans would run the country?

Based on history, it was Republicans with Volcker’s work that broke the back of inflation in the early 80s, so I’d say back 1-2%. It was Volcker and Greenspan, with the political backing of Republican President Reagan that wrung inflation out. I will not put all the blame on Biden’s fiscal policy, but add in the ridiculous helicopter money over the last decade by Obama and Trump and Bernanke p, it’s very predictable. We’ll be seeing 8% interest rates soon enough.

I always find it amusing to see how so many Americans seem completely unaware of the concept of 'the rest of the world'. High inflation rates are a problem all over the world right now, and are a consequence of both the economic upturn after Covid and the war in Ukraine. It's not the fault of whoever is in control in Washington. In Europe, inflation is higher than in the US, both in the EU and in countries outside the EU. It's high in countries with left-wing governments, centrist governments, and right-wing governments. Why? Because most of it is outside of their immediate control. Yet somehow, in the US, it's Biden's fault...

The GOP is a party that has cultivated ignorance and abuse within their ranks.They have the special benefits gained when most of the members are addicted to propoganda and hate spewed from right wing media outlets.

They could care less about progress or what causes an issue such as inflation when there is more money and anger to be cultivated by prolonging the problem and blaming other Americans.

Scorpio wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

N14AZ wrote:

So how high would inflation be if the Republicans would run the country?

Based on history, it was Republicans with Volcker’s work that broke the back of inflation in the early 80s, so I’d say back 1-2%. It was Volcker and Greenspan, with the political backing of Republican President Reagan that wrung inflation out. I will not put all the blame on Biden’s fiscal policy, but add in the ridiculous helicopter money over the last decade by Obama and Trump and Bernanke p, it’s very predictable. We’ll be seeing 8% interest rates soon enough.

I always find it amusing to see how so many Americans seem completely unaware of the concept of 'the rest of the world'. High inflation rates are a problem all over the world right now, and are a consequence of both the economic upturn after Covid and the war in Ukraine. It's not the fault of whoever is in control in Washington. In Europe, inflation is higher than in the US, both in the EU and in countries outside the EU. It's high in countries with left-wing governments, centrist governments, and right-wing governments. Why? Because most of it is outside of their immediate control. Yet somehow, in the US, it's Biden's fault...

Yeah, we're seeing the same thing here in Canada. "it's all Trudeau's fault", "the Conservatives would never have let this happen", etc.

Meanwhile here in Canada were dealing with less inflation that our friends over in Europe. Then you look at the USA, and they're dealing with it even better than we are. Yet somehow people are expected to believe that the Republicans have the magic cure.

leader1 wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

No predictions here. It’ll be a R Congress, however, not a prediction; a certainty.

Fear and hate, alright. I fear the Dems will continue to reduce the value of my assets by 8+% a year and hate that they will continue to expand government powers, reducing liberty.

What liberties have you lost the last two years? Just curious, but do you think we’re living in some dictatorship?

He's no longer able to have an abortion.

And Prigozhin (Wagner) is stirring the pot about influencing the election…
https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1589605008039108610?s=20&t=_tcgBTxTIRvF9rzDKi6f-w

Will Putin be the real winner of these elections?

I just cant wait for the elections to be over, I am so sick of the ads, spam calls, people knocking on my door blah blah blah...Tomorrow during the returns I plan to make it a NetFlix night..

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

casinterest wrote:

Scorpio wrote:

I always find it amusing to see how so many Americans seem completely unaware of the concept of 'the rest of the world'. High inflation rates are a problem all over the world right now, and are a consequence of both the economic upturn after Covid and the war in Ukraine. It's not the fault of whoever is in control in Washington. In Europe, inflation is higher than in the US, both in the EU and in countries outside the EU. It's high in countries with left-wing governments, centrist governments, and right-wing governments. Why? Because most of it is outside of their immediate control. Yet somehow, in the US, it's Biden's fault...

The GOP is a party that has cultivated ignorance and abuse within their ranks.They have the special benefits gained when most of the members are addicted to propoganda and hate spewed from right wing media outlets.

They could care less about progress or what causes an issue such as inflation when there is more money and anger to be cultivated by prolonging the problem and blaming other Americans.

I’ve been around a good bit of the world and are quite aware of inflation rates outside the US. Inflation is being the result of way too much helicopter money thrown around by loose fiscal policy, parting COVID, partly near-zero interest rates. As Walter Baghot said “John Bull can stand a lot but not 2% interest rates.” It’s going to take a lot of pain to wring it out. It was not only Biden, it was the decade since 2008 when zero interest started. It brought asset bubbles, crashes, speculation, inflation.

But that story doesn't fly either as 12 years of low interest itself didn't cause the inflation. What we are stuck in now is scarcity of resources due to prolonged effects of Covid while demand creeps up. No amount of governing solves that issue, especially when the global economy relies on parts from all over.

We are also in a place where Gasoline compnies are profiteering on escalated gasoline prices that have wildly diverted from the actual cost of oil.

So to place the blame on Government when the issue is multifaceted and related to private business decisions as well as government decisions is disenginous as it gets, and the fact that so many American GOP folks buy into that drivel makes me wonder whether we are heading towards fascism as the people are trusting the government leaders far too much in the GOP.

Bill Maher's sober take on what's really at stake tomorrow:

https://youtu.be/NEHZcPb5STg?t=408

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKVBvooZ2c8

Essentially, his argument boils down to:

1. Dems have run on the wrong messaging, and failed to be strict with guard rails

2. Combination of GOP control of Congress + Trump running in 2024 guarantees that even if Trump loses in '24, he will show up for Inauguration Day anyway, and contest the election with all of the sycophants he has in place in various states

3. The MAGA wing of the GOP will not give power back once they've got it. Institutional norms will be ignored going forward.

4. Not enough Americans care about politics to undo this situation

Aaron747 wrote:

Bill Maher's sober take on what's really at stake tomorrow:

https://youtu.be/NEHZcPb5STg?t=408

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKVBvooZ2c8

Essentially, his argument boils down to:

1. Dems have run on the wrong messaging, and failed to be strict with guard rails

2. Combination of GOP control of Congress + Trump running in 2024 guarantees that even if Trump loses in '24, he will show up for Inauguration Day anyway, and contest the election with all of the sycophants he has in place in various states

3. The MAGA wing of the GOP will not give power back once they've got it. Institutional norms will be ignored going forward.

4. Not enough Americans care about politics to undo this situation

5. China and Russia are the beneficiaries

Avatar2go wrote:

stratosphere wrote:

I have seen Hobbs and Lake. Katie Hobbs seems like a dope. She will not debate Kari Lake because Kari Lake will mop the floor with her and she knows it. Lake is skilled from her media days and the media cannot play her and it shows.

Hobbs was smart enough not to give a public platform to a conspiracy theorist and election denier. She made the calculation that doing so will not hurt her with people who understand the falsehoods in Lake's position. And it would not help her with those who believe the falsehoods and conspiracy theories, without evidence.

It may very well be that there are enough true believers in Arizona to elect Lake. We'll have to see. Either way, there will be a lot of very unhappy people in Arizona come Wednesday.

In PA, Shapiro chose not to debate right wing Mastriano for governor in PA, for the same reasons, and Shapiro, as the Democrat, is doing well in polls.

In Arizona, Hobbs is criticized for not debating Lake. Maybe Lake, being a polished TV personality, is making the difference, while Hobbs is kind of a dud. I still think Hobbs should have debated, or atleast attended the debate. I know it's hard to ignore a bully in the room, but Hobbs could have just tuned Lake out completely, and done the very least of answering any of the questions from the moderator. Moderates and independents wanted to see both candidates together.

I'll make my predictions now.

Senate:

Pennsylvania
I think Fetterman comes up on top here, but just barely. I thought he was the wrong choice of a candidate. Dems should have selected Connor Lamb, who would have wiped the floor with Oz. But, nope, they just had to go with a progressive populist who doesn't appeal to moderate voters. Only saving grace is that Oz is less likable and a sleaze. Polls haven't moved too much since the debate, so I think Fetterman will prevail, although it wouldn't surprise me if Oz won.

Wisconsin
Ron Johnson is one of the most loathsome Senators, but Mandala Barnes is a terrible candidate. What the hell were the Dems thinking here? Should have been an easy pick-up for the Dems if had a better candidate, but Johnson wins this and it won't be close.

New Hampshire
Hassan wins. Bolduc is a terrible candidate.

Arizona
Kelly wins here. Masters is an awful candidate. Speaks volumes that McConnell won't spend money to help.

Georgia
This one is too close to call. Toss-up. I think it will go to a runoff because they have a third candidate to syphon votes off the two. From there, I say coinflip, but leaning towards Warnock.

Nevada
I think Laxalt will prevail here, but only barely.

In short, it will probably be a 50-50 Senate.

House

GOP will retake the house by 15+ seats. Dems have been campaigning horribly down the stretch and focusing on the wrong issues and they can't keep their fringe within the guard rails. Besides, the president's party usually loses the house on a midterm year.

Governors

I'll only comment on my state, New York. Hochul's been absent and awful. She's campaigned poorly and focused on the wrong issues. Crime is a big concern in New York and she's only now started to address it during the homestretch, while her opponent, Zeldin, has been hammering away at it. Hochul's done baby steps to address the issue, which revolves around the state's horrible bail reform law. Even our mayor, who's also a Democrat, has complained about it and demanded it be revoked. Instead, Hochul has ceded control to Carl Heastie and Andrea Stewart-Cousins, leaders of the state legislature and senate, respectively, and they simply don't care and won't budge. The state can't afford to be held hostage by these two buffoons, but Hochul is too scared.

On the flipside, Zeldin is a MAGAt and an idiot and I can't in good conscience vote for him. I voted yesterday and just wrote-in someone, that's how disgusted I am with the two choices.

At the end of the day, I think Hochul will end up winning. NY is simply too blue to vote a MAGAt. The margin will be tight, though. Could have been an easy GOP pick-up if they put in a more moderate candidate, but this is where we are. I do think, however, that Dems will lost a lot of seats in the state legislature and senate. They'll still have a majority, but it will be a lot closer than it is now.

Aaron747 wrote:

Bill Maher's sober take on what's really at stake tomorrow:

https://youtu.be/NEHZcPb5STg?t=408

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKVBvooZ2c8

Essentially, his argument boils down to:

1. Dems have run on the wrong messaging, and failed to be strict with guard rails

2. Combination of GOP control of Congress + Trump running in 2024 guarantees that even if Trump loses in '24, he will show up for Inauguration Day anyway, and contest the election with all of the sycophants he has in place in various states

3. The MAGA wing of the GOP will not give power back once they've got it. Institutional norms will be ignored going forward.

4. Not enough Americans care about politics to undo this situation

1) They have not only run on the wrong messaging but many democrats now represent the elite Professional Managerial Class and many have contempt for the working class. What you will see on Tuesday is the volume of black an Hispanics voting for the GOP, this trend began in 2020. The republicans are stealing the working class voters and if they actually do things to better their situation then that is who they will vote for (that is the big if). Bernie Sanders has been sounding the alarm on this for his entire political career but the democrats don't listen, he is the old socialist from Vermont who is still the most popular politician in the United States. The democrats have focus on woke issues that most blue collar individuals don't care about or disagree with. If you talk to everyday people they don't give a hoot about pronouns and certain words like Latinx, the trans things confuses most people over 35 now and even I don't get it. Furthermore most people behind the scenes are politically incorrect people who are crass and insult each other. Crime and homeless issues are also issues democrats are losing on.

Add to that most of the Covid lockdowns were in democratic run jurisdictions where the leaders kids were in private schools that were open. People don't forget the hypocrisy of people like Gavin Newsom, Muriel Bowser, London Breed etc. Say what you will about the GOP, they kept their states open and didn't attend fancy dinners and galas unmasked when school kids were masked and in some places may still be. Furthermore many non-essential businesses such as Hollywood were allowed to remain open when small businesses weren't. People will remember this tomorrow.

2) I don't think Trump even gets the nomination in 2024. I think Ron Desantis will get it or there will be a fight for it. I think there are enough people in the GOP that know that Trump doesn't want to govern that he will be a liability. If the GOP wants to have long term success the don't rely on Donald Trump.

3) Unless the MAGA crowd absolutely controls the military and police then its not a legitimate threat because I don't think the MAGA crowd has the competence to actually operate a coup. Trump was being dragged out of the Whitehouse on January 20th, 2021 regardless of what he says. There is no higher level of security around DC than on January 20th.

4) Absolutely true. The average citizen doesn't pay attention to politics but their boss does, their landlord does, their pastor does etc. If US voting rates were like they were in France then the interests of the working class would be paid attention to.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Inflation is not profiteering, it’s too much money chasing too few goods. Yes, we’ve had supply side problems, but printing money at 1% interest is the source of problem. The USG will never pay off its debt of $31 trillion, so inflation is the only way over time to bring the debt down to sustainable levels. As usual, the less well-off will be hurt the most. We could have a sustained boom, as post-WW II, to bring down the debt, but don’t bet on it.

Then the inflation would have happened in 2010-2014 and it didn't, inflation was at a record low at that time. The average American family is not drowning in cash and figuratively making it rain with spending. Most have had to cut back considerably even before 2020. I heard this author explain what is driving a lot of this and its the biggest companies in bed with the Fed and the government and this is a good take on it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/ ... 6ec93744c8

Its too much money chasing too few goods because of a lack of supply and not excess demand, much of that fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing went to the biggest businesses (who didn't need the money) and they didn't plan for the future they bought back their stock to overheat the markets. Very little got into the average citizen's hand. Its a complex issues with complex solutions.

There is a competition factor also. How many big corporate mergers have happened in the last 20 years or so than we don't think of? That has taken competition out of the market and yes they can raise prices more than they would have been able to if there was more competition. Furthermore with the covid lockdowns many small business failed and are on life support and the recovery is slow.

The "Just In time" level of manufacturing with having minimal excess inventory has been exposed with Covid where the biggest manufacturing state (China) will lock down 100 million people if someone coughs. We over rely on companies in countries that could be occupied tomorrow. Example being TSMC, I have nothing against Taiwan or TSMC but China is 80 miles west of them and can cripple the semi-conductor market in a blink of an eye if they were to launch airstrikes on Taipei. The agricultural supply crisis is heavily affected by the war in Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1JlYZQG3lI

We need to bring manufacturing back to North America to prevent this and have much smaller suppliers everywhere because global stuff happens.

StarAC17 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

Bill Maher's sober take on what's really at stake tomorrow:

https://youtu.be/NEHZcPb5STg?t=408

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKVBvooZ2c8

Essentially, his argument boils down to:

1. Dems have run on the wrong messaging, and failed to be strict with guard rails

2. Combination of GOP control of Congress + Trump running in 2024 guarantees that even if Trump loses in '24, he will show up for Inauguration Day anyway, and contest the election with all of the sycophants he has in place in various states

3. The MAGA wing of the GOP will not give power back once they've got it. Institutional norms will be ignored going forward.

4. Not enough Americans care about politics to undo this situation

1) They have not only run on the wrong messaging but many democrats now represent the elite Professional Managerial Class and many have contempt for the working class. What you will see on Tuesday is the volume of black an Hispanics voting for the GOP, this trend began in 2020. The republicans are stealing the working class voters and if they actually do things to better their situation then that is who they will vote for (that is the big if). Bernie Sanders has been sounding the alarm on this for his entire political career but the democrats don't listen, he is the old socialist from Vermont who is still the most popular politician in the United States. The democrats have focus on woke issues that most blue collar individuals don't care about or disagree with. If you talk to everyday people they don't give a hoot about pronouns and certain words like Latinx, the trans things confuses most people over 35 now and even I don't get it. Furthermore most people behind the scenes are politically incorrect people who are crass and insult each other. Crime and homeless issues are also issues democrats are losing on.

Add to that most of the Covid lockdowns were in democratic run jurisdictions where the leaders kids were in private schools that were open. People don't forget the hypocrisy of people like Gavin Newsom, Muriel Bowser, London Breed etc. Say what you will about the GOP, they kept their states open and didn't attend fancy dinners and galas unmasked when school kids were masked and in some places may still be. Furthermore many non-essential businesses such as Hollywood were allowed to remain open when small businesses weren't. People will remember this tomorrow.

2) I don't think Trump even gets the nomination in 2024. I think Ron Desantis will get it or there will be a fight for it. I think there are enough people in the GOP that know that Trump doesn't want to govern that he will be a liability. If the GOP wants to have long term success the don't rely on Donald Trump.

3) Unless the MAGA crowd absolutely controls the military and police then its not a legitimate threat because I don't think the MAGA crowd has the competence to actually operate a coup. Trump was being dragged out of the Whitehouse on January 20th, 2021 regardless of what he says. There is no higher level of security around DC than on January 20th.

4) Absolutely true. The average citizen doesn't pay attention to politics but their boss does, their landlord does, their pastor does etc. If US voting rates were like they were in France then the interests of the working class would be paid attention to.

I agree with many of the points you listed, but have the Democrats, as in members in Congress, WH or governors, focused on woke issues, like pronoun awareness? That seems to be more a Left cultural focus by some, not a Democrat focus, even though Democrat politicians are supported by the Left.

It's interesting you mentioned Gavin Newsom. He's not on the ticket , but I could see him running in 2024, and Hollywood and the Left all supportive of his run. Even if there is a massive red wave, the Democrat Party doesn't seem ready to change. The moderates will be voted out. The Squad still around, the governors of the bluest of states still in tact, Elizabeth Warren still around to represent the Party even though Democrats don't want her, and no focus on middle of the country, blue collar voters, etc.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

casinterest wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I’ve been around a good bit of the world and are quite aware of inflation rates outside the US. Inflation is being the result of way too much helicopter money thrown around by loose fiscal policy, parting COVID, partly near-zero interest rates. As Walter Baghot said “John Bull can stand a lot but not 2% interest rates.” It’s going to take a lot of pain to wring it out. It was not only Biden, it was the decade since 2008 when zero interest started. It brought asset bubbles, crashes, speculation, inflation.

But that story doesn't fly either as 12 years of low interest itself didn't cause the inflation. What we are stuck in now is scarcity of resources due to prolonged effects of Covid while demand creeps up. No amount of governing solves that issue, especially when the global economy relies on parts from all over.

We are also in a place where Gasoline compnies are profiteering on escalated gasoline prices that have wildly diverted from the actual cost of oil.

So to place the blame on Government when the issue is multifaceted and related to private business decisions as well as government decisions is disenginous as it gets, and the fact that so many American GOP folks buy into that drivel makes me wonder whether we are heading towards fascism as the people are trusting the government leaders far too much in the GOP.

Inflation is not profiteering, it’s too much money chasing too few goods. Yes, we’ve had supply side problems, but printing money at 1% interest is the source of problem. The USG will never pay off its debt of $31 trillion, so inflation is the only way over time to bring the debt down to sustainable levels. As usual, the less well-off will be hurt the most. We could have a sustained boom, as post-WW II, to bring down the debt, but don’t bet on it.

The USG never has to pay off the debt. the USG creates the debt by printing money. Think of it as mining gold .
In theory yes, the government spends more than it takes in, but it is also jhust really adding to the money supply as it writes checks for goods and services that become real as soon as that check is deposited. Yes the government pays interest on that debt, so people/corporations do buy up the debt. If we ever run a surplus, so be it they can pay off some debt, but at the same time it keeps people invested in the US. This inflation will pass as supply increases.

I thought this add for DeSantis was a joke. Apparently not:

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=58a1c209 ... 5ZVQ&ntb=1

So, this is the latest add for Ron DeSantis:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1588539069243473924

This is completely insane. I guess the average Floridian is a raving fundamentalist religious extremist. These are the people destined to rule America. or should I say Giliad?

The thing that concerns me is that MAGA's will interpret Republican victories as evidence that the 2020 election was stolen. Already have seen some indications of that on line.

Of course ,actually it would mean the opposite, unless they choose to challenge their own elections.

phluser wrote:

I agree with many of the points you listed, but have the Democrats, as in members in Congress, WH or governors, focused on woke issues, like pronoun awareness? That seems to be more a Left cultural focus by some, not a Democrat focus, even though Democrat politicians are supported by the Left.

It's interesting you mentioned Gavin Newsom. He's not on the ticket , but I could see him running in 2024, and Hollywood and the Left all supportive of his run. Even if there is a massive red wave, the Democrat Party doesn't seem ready to change. The moderates will be voted out. The Squad still around, the governors of the bluest of states still in tact, Elizabeth Warren still around to represent the Party even though Democrats don't want her, and no focus on middle of the country, blue collar voters, etc.

When I mention this I think of stuff like this that went down at the Washington Post in June. This is not something I associate with progressives and I don't think there are a lot true progressives at the WaPo.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/06 ... lowup.html

https://nypost.com/2022/06/06/washingto ... ter-brawl/

The jist of it is that Felicia Sonmez basically got the WaPo's HR department to get Dave Weigel suspended over re-tweeting an innocent joke which he apologized for and that most of us would laugh at.

I'm going to say its the cultural left that is behind this but not the economic left and there is a difference. I would pin this on the Professional Managerial Class (the MSNBC crowd) who are the economic moderates who run the party and not the true economic progressives. They are the ones that are attacking cops and ensuring that pronouns are used, ensuring that journalists get in trouble for jokes. These people on the economy (I would put Bill Maher in this camp) are centrist or center right and don't fight for the working class or another thing that has finally hit the media which are men's issues. These people care more about censoring Andrew Tate than making education more affordable because they are already rich and benefit from the status quo. The average person is probably culturally still on the right and believe the nuclear family and safe neighborhoods. Pronouns and CRT don't cross these people's minds

I actually don't blame the squad a whole lot for this and the reason that they will win and the moderates lose is that they actually stand for something on an economic basis. In fact Rashida Tlaib says a lot of things that are politically incorrect but they usually are critical of Israel so she gets hate for that. You hear none of this from Bernie Sanders and in fact it was Hillary Clinton who started the cultural fight in 2016 not Bernie, she was loosing the message. The gotcha's against Bernie were that he seems indifferent to the second amendment and he realizes that if the economy sucks for the average person none of this matters.
Biden to his credit actually doesn't do a lot of this because he doesn't really care but I see people who would likely succeed him not standing up to this. Also Obama never could because he would be seen as the angry black man which is a cardinal sin in American politics.

That's my 2 cents on it. To steal from Bill Clinton it depends on what your definition of left is. I would argue that most economic progressives win tomorrow.

Now onto Gavin Newsom, I don't see any real substance with him. I compare him to Justin Trudeau and as a Canadian I feel I can do this. He is very good looking, very charismatic and has some political accomplishments but he isn't an advocate for the working class because actions speak louder than words, taxes have gone up in California and they have in Canada, they both have declared to stop the sale of electric cars by 2030 but offer no real plan or infrastructure investment to make that a reality. They are both culturally left but economically centrist.

IIRC they were both born into money and I can't confirm this about Newsom (someone who lives in California probably can) but whenever somebody questions Trudeau he insults them and punishes them. He fired his justice minister when Trudeau declined to prosecute a corrupt engineering firm weeks after saying to China we can't release a political prisoner that we arrested on behalf of the US because our justice system and political government. When Trump at the time said she was a pawn in his trade dispute with China.

He simply insulted those who participated and supported the trucker convoy and declared the emergencies act (our version of martial law) and has the audacity to say to the premier of Ontario last week when negotiating a union contract that removing that he shouldn't override a legal strike.

Newsom's Covid hypocrisy goes beyond the French Laundry incident. Why did he keep Hollywood open when closing outdoor dining in a state that its essentially sunny every day. Why is there a huge homeless problem that seemed to have proliferated in the past 5 years.

If he ran against Ron Desantis he would get slaughtered. I could write a handful of attack ads in an afternoon as working class people are leaving California and moving to Texas and Florida. California had strict covid measures and Florida has basically none and the death rates were comparable. Florida has much more affordable real estate etc.

If the democrats want to win they need an economic progressive who is a lot younger and minimizes the social issues to the serious ones. I don't see that person anywhere on the horizon. Andrew Yang was a good choice but he saw the deals being cut in 2020 and basically left the building. He is not a politician but somebody like Nick Hanauer who speaks of these issues.

StarAC17 wrote:

Newsom's Covid hypocrisy goes beyond the French Laundry incident. Why did he keep Hollywood open when closing outdoor dining in a state that its essentially sunny every day. Why is there a huge homeless problem that seemed to have proliferated in the past 5 years.

As a former Californian, can attest that homelessness has proliferated since the late 1980s, and is a local/county management issue, not a state policy issue. There is also the politically complex aspect of NIMBYism to many homelessness solutions.