If the Republicans split, it may help the Democrats on the popular vote, but the popular vote does not decide the election, the electoral college does. A split GOP would almost guarantee no one will reach 270.
Well, yes and no. With a couple of exceptions the states are winner-take-all so the popular vote in each state decides the electoral votes from each state. So if hypothetically the popular vote is 50.1% Dem, ~24.9% DeSantis, ~24.9% Trump, in enough states and the Dem candidate gets 100% of the electoral votes from those states the Dems could easily get to 270. (Edited to note: you don’t even need a majority, just a plurality.)
There is nothing speculative about 7-9% mortgage rates, they are at 7% now and with the fed poised to continue to raise they will only go up.
The mortgage on my first house in 1978 was 8%. Historically there is nothing unusual about mortgage rates at that level. And the housing market works just fine. Granted, you might have to settle for a little less house. But you get what you can realistically afford. Like a doped racehorse the economy has been artificially stimulated for a more than a decade. What’s happening now is a classic “reversion to mean” which is painful for many in the short run but healthy in the longer run. There is no reason to panic about the economy.
For housing - right now it is a double whammy of high interest rate AND high housing price. Something has to give, and the latter is more likely than the former.
As somebody trying to buy the price needs to come way down - houses should not increased 30% in price in the span of 2 years to begin with - it is unrealistic speculation and a bubble. But of course, as usual the "owner class" will get bailout.
2024 is still some time away. THE primary driver of elections is the economy. Right now the long term outlook is poor. Home prices are plummeting which may be irrelevant because at 7-9% APR no one will buy. The car market is teetering on imploding (a Carvana collapse would almost guarantee it). Tech company layoffs have started and will continue.
Long story if the economy continues on this trajectory we are in big trouble and that will decide the election. Republicans will run on the platform of fixing the economy and point to the mess we are in.
I'm not going to debunk that one by one but in general your post is full of dramatic speculation that isn't backed up by reality. Histrionics aside, none of that would change the fact that a split Trump/GOP third party candidacy would result in a landslide Democratic victory...
If the Republicans split, it may help the Democrats on the popular vote, but the popular vote does not decide the election, the electoral college does. A split GOP would almost guarantee no one will reach 270. There is nothing speculative about 7-9% mortgage rates, they are at 7% now and with the fed poised to continue to raise they will only go up. Look at websites like realator.com and look at how much home prices are dropping and how long they are on the market. The home next door to me sat for over 6 months and the owners had to drop the price from $1,795,000.00 to $1,100,000.00 and they had to wait for a cash buyer. Inflation is out of control, a gallon for milk is now close to $7 a gallon. All these factors are contributing to our economy imploding. Americans will demand a change because thats all they will have in their banks.
Wait, prices are falling, but sure it is still inflation?
Left out of the whole equation, of course, is how much the owner of that house next to you pay for the house when he/she bought it. Chances are it is well below 1.1M.
Back on topic - Desantis is definitely falling into that "inevitable candidate" category right now, which means it is not even all that likely that he will win the nomination.
And Trump? Well, he does need to grift more money from his acolytes. For all the talk about Trump, he spent how much helping MAGA wins election? Actually not a lot. All those money that he grifts from his supporters? Goes right into his pocket and nowhere else.