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QF7
Posts: 231
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:57 am

pune wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicles-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673876862?mod=dist_amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.



ACDC8 wrote:
The other misleading factor in this thread, is that the original article says that 10% of new car sales last year were EV, thats not a very accurate metric to determine a trend given the current state of the new car market with empty lots, fewer choices if one needs a car today versus waiting a year plus for a preferred vehicle.


I agree that it is faulty logic to assume a trend will continue independent of market conditions. To take an example from another industry, look at Peloton. Most of the press focuses on how the end or at least decline of the pandemic (a market-skewing event if there ever was one) allowed for the reopening of gyms which thus presumably cratered the market for at-home exercise equipment. Less discussed is that there are only so many people who are willing to cough up several thousand dollars in purchase and ongoing subscription costs for “connected fitness” products. Once the initial market is saturated further growth becomes difficult, as is reflected in Peloton’s stock price.

The analogy to EVs is two-fold: there are only so many people who are willing or able to pay premium prices for EVs, and secondly, as discussed in this thread, EVs don’t make sense for all consumers for various reasons. To the first point the sub-20k consumer is a value shopper who will only consider an EV if it provides equal or better value to other alternatives. Any drop in the price of gasoline/petrol shifts the value calculation in favor of ICE. Same thing if and when tax incentives are phased out. Both of these have a market-skewing influence. And to the second point, to grow beyond the initial market demand EVs (or some other technology) have to overcome the range limitations and other reasons that make them unsuitable for many buyers.

Having said that, assuming Tesla can take out enough cost to profitably sell EVs in the sub-20k segment, what’s to stop other manufacturers from doing the same thing? Tesla’s not going to have some secret recipe no one else can replicate. I hardly see many nails being driven in other companies for that reason.
 
luckyone
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:18 am

BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:
alberchico wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The elephant (mammoth, mastodon) in the globe will be Toyota waking up and aggressively entering the EV world.


The big problem with Toyota is that they were asleep at the wheel for many years thinking that electric cars would be a novelty and hybrid vehicles would be the way of the future, possibly followed by fuel cell vehicles. Only now with new leadership do they have a chance to devote their vast resources to the EV market but they have a lot of catching up to do.

https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/toyota-c ... -movement/

In the past Toyota were so against electric vehicles that they actively spread propaganda in Japan to convince people that hybrid cars were better.

https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyo ... -in-japan/

https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/toyota-p ... ti-ev-ads/


To no one’s surprise Toyota was also the leader in hybrid sales and development. It wasn’t so much that they didn’t think that EV’s could be the future, they didn’t want to kill their cash cow.

Yup. It’s all but an open secret Toyota lost money building the first generation of the Prius, and likely took a couple years into the second before they started seeing black.
 
luckyone
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:25 am

QF7 wrote:
pune wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicles-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673876862?mod=dist_amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.



ACDC8 wrote:
The other misleading factor in this thread, is that the original article says that 10% of new car sales last year were EV, thats not a very accurate metric to determine a trend given the current state of the new car market with empty lots, fewer choices if one needs a car today versus waiting a year plus for a preferred vehicle.


I agree that it is faulty logic to assume a trend will continue independent of market conditions. To take an example from another industry, look at Peloton. Most of the press focuses on how the end or at least decline of the pandemic (a market-skewing event if there ever was one) allowed for the reopening of gyms which thus presumably cratered the market for at-home exercise equipment. Less discussed is that there are only so many people who are willing to cough up several thousand dollars in purchase and ongoing subscription costs for “connected fitness” products. Once the initial market is saturated further growth becomes difficult, as is reflected in Peloton’s stock price.

The analogy to EVs is two-fold: there are only so many people who are willing or able to pay premium prices for EVs, and secondly, as discussed in this thread, EVs don’t make sense for all consumers for various reasons. To the first point the sub-20k consumer is a value shopper who will only consider an EV if it provides equal or better value to other alternatives. Any drop in the price of gasoline/petrol shifts the value calculation in favor of ICE. Same thing if and when tax incentives are phased out. Both of these have a market-skewing influence. And to the second point, to grow beyond the initial market demand EVs (or some other technology) have to overcome the range limitations and other reasons that make them unsuitable for many buyers.

Having said that, assuming Tesla can take out enough cost to profitably sell EVs in the sub-20k segment, what’s to stop other manufacturers from doing the same thing? Tesla’s not going to have some secret recipe no one else can replicate. I hardly see many nails being driven in other companies for that reason.

I’m going to agree here and further argue that Tesla is going to be one of the last to the party with a ground up “affordable” EV. GM is already ahead of them in that regard with the Bolt, and VW has been laying that groundwork since the Dieselgate fiasco, and has the ID3 selling in the sub30 range in The UK (which usually means if it comes to the States the price is similar in dollar) but in Western markets I actually think it will be the Koreans who really send prices down.
 
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Revelation
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 2:58 pm

BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:
The problem is that the “marketing whizzes” at Ford are trying to make Mustang into a brand in of itself. GM is going to be doing the same with Corvette too in the next few years. Ultimately, I think the blame can be traced back to BMW with their ///M brand. Ultimately, that’s provided the genesis for the whole “sub-brand” concept.

There are three things in the life that are guaranteed. Death, taxes, and the bean counters/marketing people ruining everything.

Why is it ruining anything? You don't like it, you don't buy it and move on.

When I think of this approach, actually I think of Cadillac first, not BMW. Cadillac applied their "design language" from their sedans to their SUVs and had a huge money-spinner with Escalade. Take the same old GM SUV, put a new nose and some better interior detailing on it, mark up the price 50%! What a deal!

Then the Porsche Cayenne followed. Same idea. Purists hated it, but it's raking in the cash.

Kiwirob wrote:
I have no idea what it's like in the US, in Norway petrol stations are closing down.

In my US town, I see more gas/petrol stations being added. I had a friend who managed one such station and he said they made next to no profit on the gas/petrol, it was all on the merchandise side. Basically, the gas/petrol is the loss leader that brings you to the actual profit center, the convenience store where all the stuff has big markups. Not sure what happens when there's no need to stop at the pumps. Tesla has located its charging stations mostly at restaurant parking lots since a charge takes a good 20 minutes or so. Guess that will be the model that takes over?

luckyone wrote:
... but in Western markets I actually think it will be the Koreans who really send prices down.

Don't forget about the Chinese. Right now there's a true blood bath between Chinese EV companies. Eventually a winner or two will be crowned and all the government favoritism will focus on them. BYD is the name most know, but there is still a shakeout going on. It's pretty clear their government sees winning in the EV space as an imperative. I know there is a lot of trade and political friction with China these days, but in the end everyone follows the golden rule, the gold rules.
 
N1120A
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:20 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
N1120A wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
If a Porsche and a BMW can be a compact SUV, why not a Mustang?


Porsche doesn't call the Cayenne a 911 and BMW doesn't call the X5 an M5.


BMW will sell you an X5M.


Yes, but make clear it is an X5, not a Mustang
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:
The problem is that the “marketing whizzes” at Ford are trying to make Mustang into a brand in of itself. GM is going to be doing the same with Corvette too in the next few years. Ultimately, I think the blame can be traced back to BMW with their ///M brand. Ultimately, that’s provided the genesis for the whole “sub-brand” concept.

There are three things in the life that are guaranteed. Death, taxes, and the bean counters/marketing people ruining everything.

Why is it ruining anything? You don't like it, you don't buy it and move on.

When I think of this approach, actually I think of Cadillac first, not BMW. Cadillac applied their "design language" from their sedans to their SUVs and had a huge money-spinner with Escalade. Take the same old GM SUV, put a new nose and some better interior detailing on it, mark up the price 50%! What a deal!

Then the Porsche Cayenne followed. Same idea. Purists hated it, but it's raking in the cash.

Kiwirob wrote:
I have no idea what it's like in the US, in Norway petrol stations are closing down.

In my US town, I see more gas/petrol stations being added. I had a friend who managed one such station and he said they made next to no profit on the gas/petrol, it was all on the merchandise side. Basically, the gas/petrol is the loss leader that brings you to the actual profit center, the convenience store where all the stuff has big markups. Not sure what happens when there's no need to stop at the pumps. Tesla has located its charging stations mostly at restaurant parking lots since a charge takes a good 20 minutes or so. Guess that will be the model that takes over?

luckyone wrote:
... but in Western markets I actually think it will be the Koreans who really send prices down.

Don't forget about the Chinese. Right now there's a true blood bath between Chinese EV companies. Eventually a winner or two will be crowned and all the government favoritism will focus on them. BYD is the name most know, but there is still a shakeout going on. It's pretty clear their government sees winning in the EV space as an imperative. I know there is a lot of trade and political friction with China these days, but in the end everyone follows the golden rule, the gold rules.


I think you’ll find they all followed Mercedes the M Class came out in 97, the Escalade and BMW X5 in 99, the Cayenne and VW Toureag in 2002.
 
luckyone
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:51 pm

Revelation wrote:

luckyone wrote:
... but in Western markets I actually think it will be the Koreans who really send prices down.

Don't forget about the Chinese. Right now there's a true blood bath between Chinese EV companies. Eventually a winner or two will be crowned and all the government favoritism will focus on them. BYD is the name most know, but there is still a shakeout going on. It's pretty clear their government sees winning in the EV space as an imperative. I know there is a lot of trade and political friction with China these days, but in the end everyone follows the golden rule, the gold rules.

I think there's sufficient time before the Chinese are able to make their move in the US market. It will take years for them to be able to set up a US distribution network (unless they buy their bedmate Tesla), and the Koreans will likely have the time to take advantage of that -- heck even the Vietnamese are ahead of the Chinese right now in terms of setting up US production. The Big 3 will push for tariffs and it has a good chance of happening regardless of who's in the White House.

I'm also somewhat skeptical of the American public's willingness to buy a Chinese CAR, at least right away. Americans and their cars are very image driven and we use cars as a statement. We'll tolerate cheap Chinese electronics or things that may not be visible, but parking a Chinese car in their driveway for the world to see I suspect will take more time than previous foreign entries, but I agree eventually they will have some presence assuming there isn't some political barrier or a battle about IP (because all the technology that goes into those Teslas made in Shanghai WILL eventually make its way into China's vehicles). Another key difference will be the infrastructure for an EV. Japanese and Korean manufacturers started their efforts at the bottom of the market -- I don't know that the infrastructure will be there any time soon for the entirely price conscious lower income folks who either don't have a regular parking spot or live in a more rural area to be willing to consider an EV, even if it is cheap. The Koreans (and Japanese for that matter, whenever they really get into EVs), meanwhile, are now firmly established in the middle of the market, where these price changes can have an impact.
 
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Revelation
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 4:39 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
I think you’ll find they all followed Mercedes the M Class came out in 97, the Escalade and BMW X5 in 99, the Cayenne and VW Toureag in 2002.

I'm not a close follower of this space so I'll defer to your timeline. Escalade has a lot of visibility here, so that's what I went with.

luckyone wrote:
I think there's sufficient time before the Chinese are able to make their move in the US market. It will take years for them to be able to set up a US distribution network (unless they buy their bedmate Tesla), and the Koreans will likely have the time to take advantage of that -- heck even the Vietnamese are ahead of the Chinese right now in terms of setting up US production. The Big 3 will push for tariffs and it has a good chance of happening regardless of who's in the White House.

Lots of ways to work around all those problems. Bottom line is the bottom line, and Chinese are investing heavy in the tech, and have relatively cheap labor in both the engineering and production spaces working in their favor, along with a government who is willing to do what it takes to win.

luckyone wrote:
I'm also somewhat skeptical of the American public's willingness to buy a Chinese CAR, at least right away. Americans and their cars are very image driven and we use cars as a statement. We'll tolerate cheap Chinese electronics or things that may not be visible, but parking a Chinese car in their driveway for the world to see I suspect will take more time than previous foreign entries, but I agree eventually they will have some presence assuming there isn't some political barrier or a battle about IP (because all the technology that goes into those Teslas made in Shanghai WILL eventually make its way into China's vehicles). Another key difference will be the infrastructure for an EV. Japanese and Korean manufacturers started their efforts at the bottom of the market -- I don't know that the infrastructure will be there any time soon for the entirely price conscious lower income folks who either don't have a regular parking spot or live in a more rural area to be willing to consider an EV, even if it is cheap. The Koreans (and Japanese for that matter, whenever they really get into EVs), meanwhile, are now firmly established in the middle of the market, where these price changes can have an impact.

Strange, I'm old enough to have lived through the days were VWs were not socially acceptable, followed by the Japanese imports not being socially acceptable. People turned up their noses at both, but eventually price/performance won them over. No reason to think it won't work with Chinese products. They'll grease the right palms and the doors will open to them. They're a most favored trading partner, right?

I think the eventual situation will be that ICEs will no longer be an option, be it due to environmental, economic or political reasons. I think this is at least a decade out, but I see it happening. As Kiwirob relates, in Norway gas stations are disappearing. I think that will happen here too, but it'll take longer.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:33 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
Australia being so far behind at Renewables always surprised me. But the coal industry was a strong one - good they finally get their staff together (in Germany we also had considerable forces opposing renewables).

The problem, also in Germany, is that cars last 15 to 25 years today. So if we have 10% market share for BEVs, we still today get 90% of combustion cars which will still drive in 2040. I believe by 2025 we will finally see a substantial change in the market share when supply chain issues are overcome. Question is just whether the traffic sector is adapting fast enough.


That was in 2022, in 2023 and beyond that market share is only gonna increase.
 
ACDC8
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:39 pm

pune wrote:
That was in 2022, in 2023 and beyond that market share is only gonna increase.

Given the current market availability for new cars, those old cars are going to be on the road for a lot longer than you fantasy.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:41 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
pune wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicles-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673876862?mod=dist_amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.

Add to that Musk announcements of supercharged network for all and lot more supercharger network. 2023 is gonna make lot of changes.

Also the pickup in Australia for both solar and whatnot is highly encouraging. In fact, last quarter majority of the time in Queenland and few other places they had exclusive green energy and lower prices like never before.


Now that so much of daytime peak supply in Australia is form renewables (we still need a lot more work on large scale despatchable storage), EVs are pretty much the logical choice for new cars.

The problem is supply - Kia EV6 for example is fully allocated until 2025. As well as supply of model that have launched here, we seem to have around 10% of the models available in the UK or Japan. My next car will be an EV, but I'm not prepared to commit now to a model that only partially meets my needs and has a long delivery timetable.


If I was Musk I'd build a giga factory in Australia just to show the locals that vehicles can be built in Australia and sold at a profit.



I think he would do only where labor costs are low or/and bots are allowed, i.e. China, Vietnam and the U.S. for the incentives. Exception has been Germany, Netherlands is also there but mostly caters to exports and is a small car market compared to China.

Interestingly, just few weeks back they slashed the prices due to competition (BYD) and in future may do more so when they have single giga casting process that should save them a bunch of money while also getting them super profits and margins. As it is, they are the industry-leader right now as far as margins are concerned.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/te ... r-AA16O0I2

I had a BMW i40 on order, I canceled it before Christmas but the dealer kept the allocation and is building the vehicle to my spec, the salesman contacted me last week asking if I'd changed my mind, if I had the delivery would now be in Nov/Dec not June.

I hope that Tesla's massive price drop will flow through to other manufacturers.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:53 pm

ltbewr wrote:
I would like to see more EV's as buses, small to medium commercial vehicles, especially mail, package and freight delivery, in cities and suburban areas. The limited range needed, easier supporting recharging infrastructure, overall reduction in air pollution, slow speeds, stop/go driving conditions are ideal for EV's..We also need to reduce the need for individual passenger vehicles for commuting to work and shopping. I have a neice who have a ICE minivan and her husband has a Hyundai Ionic 5 sedan. He uses it mainly to commute to work about 30 miles round trip several times a week (he can work at home the other days).
I still think ICE's mainly as hybrids, will have to be around for long distance travel, for use where electrical services are very limited, isolated rural areas, very hot/cold temperature use.
Still that an increasing shift to full EV's as passenger vehicles exceeding already over 10% in some countries is encouraging and with likely improvements in battery and other technology and more vehicles, in particular small to medium CUV/SUV's, mean lower cost models (like less than $30K (USD).so more can consider them.


That is Tesla Semi, they are going to replace lot of trucks. Ideally, would like more more manufacturers to do the same. Toyota CEO had to resign for electrification to happen in Toyota.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-AA16LdFR

But they have shared before that their EV process is not upto mark vis-a-vis Tesla. Their cars are much more heavier, hence more expensive and it's a vicious circle. All their hopes is on the new CEO that he will live upto mark.

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/column ... 00413.html
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:57 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
skyservice_330 wrote:
While I don't follow the EV discussions closely, I have certainly noticed as of late that the big legacy players seem to be really upping their game on the EV front - GM, Toyota. As such, I have often wondered if Tesla will go the way of Blackberry/RIM when the Iphone took off.

Tesla's sales have already started to drop because of an increase in competition so Tesla dropped their prices substantially to try and boost sales again, the drop was also meant to bring it under the price threshold to qualify for Government EV rebates for sales here in Canada (and other jurisdiction) - the rebates are still the leading reason for people buying an EV here.
Revelation wrote:
Their marketing has been dubious from the start.

And quite misleading as well. They'll advertise a Tesla 3 for $45K, but in reality you have to pay $54K because their advertised price reflects a "potential" $9K in savings over 6 years. I believe they got called out on that here in Canada and had to change their advertising tactics.

As to the resident EV shill's topic, the world is a big place and 10% doesn't mean nothing until its broken down regionally. Some countries like Norway which has a large uptake in EV sales, make up a big part of that 10% . Where as places like Canada, while sales are increasing, those sales are literally only in 3 cities while they continue to be non-existent in the rest of the country. Numbers are fun, but the context of those numbers are more enjoyable. Hybrid sales in Canada have been booming, the waiting lists for a new hybrid are well over a year for some models and past 3 years for other models. Some trim levels for the '23 Camry Hybrid are already sold out and Corolla and Prius wait times are nearing two years, the Sienna and Sequoia have undetermined wait times meaning it could take years for a customer to expect delivery.

As far as Tesla goes, I've got nothing against EVs, if they work for you thats fantastic, but I'd walk before I ever would even consider buying a POS Tesla.


Where. AFAIK they met and beat market expectations.

https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/el ... 30296.html
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:03 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
The other misleading factor in this thread, is that the original article says that 10% of new car sales last year were EV, thats not a very accurate metric to determine a trend given the current state of the new car market with empty lots, fewer choices if one needs a car today versus waiting a year plus for a preferred vehicle.

Take the Golf R for example, they are trickling off the assembly line, if I recall in December, they built and shipped a total of 17 Rs, my local dealership has a waiting list of over 200 people - and thats just one dealership in one city. I know people who put their order in back in 2021 and still have no ETA for delivery.

Point is, unless production is at normal levels, purchasing trends simply can't be accurately determined.


That unfortunately is where the pain point is, most manufacturers haven't figured out how to make EV production cheaper and easier for themselves. The only person who dared to speak the truth eventually had to resign -

https://www.dw.com/en/volkswagen-ceo-he ... a-62568619
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:14 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Then indeed it'll be no EV for you for quite a while, if ever.

There's no tech I know of that can provide "full charging time of less than 10 minutes with zero effect of battery life".

The problem comes when (if ever) you can't buy petroleum based fuels, which may or may not happen in our lifetimes, based on how various scientific, political and economical situations unfold over the years.

The math suggests to me I'll be dead before the Earth becomes uninhabitable, but you never know how those trend lines will change with time.

Yup, like I said - just ordered a new car which will last me a good 8-10 years and then go from there, see where the technology is. The other thing is that Government car mandates call for Zero Emission Vehicles by a certain date, and the biggest misconception of that is that people think it means the car has to be electric, which is not the case, it can also be hydrogen (which our Government is investing heavily in) or plug-in hybrids - so there are other options available as well. A lot can and will happen in the next decade, I'm gonna wait it out.

For me personally, the only compelling argument for an EV is to save money, but if thats my goal, an EV is the worst option given the purchase cost. If I can get a simple compact car for half the price of an EV, it would take me years to recoup the cost difference, even at today's gas prices.


Assumptions?? This is a 5 month old video but should get you started -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-2_JBuXgDE
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:16 pm

alberchico wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The elephant (mammoth, mastodon) in the globe will be Toyota waking up and aggressively entering the EV world.


The big problem with Toyota is that they were asleep at the wheel for many years thinking that electric cars would be a novelty and hybrid vehicles would be the way of the future, possibly followed by fuel cell vehicles. Only now with new leadership do they have a chance to devote their vast resources to the EV market but they have a lot of catching up to do.

https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/toyota-c ... -movement/

In the past Toyota were so against electric vehicles that they actively spread propaganda in Japan to convince people that hybrid cars were better.

https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyo ... -in-japan/

https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/toyota-p ... ti-ev-ads/


Fully agree, on the money. They were able to sell something like 10-12 hydrogen cars, couldn't make any money and then had to shelve that.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:30 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
ACDC8 wrote:
alberchico wrote:

The big problem with Toyota is that they were asleep at the wheel for many years thinking that electric cars would be a novelty and hybrid vehicles would be the way of the future, possibly followed by fuel cell vehicles. Only now with new leadership do they have a chance to devote their vast resources to the EV market but they have a lot of catching up to do.

https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/toyota-c ... -movement/

In the past Toyota were so against electric vehicles that they actively spread propaganda in Japan to convince people that hybrid cars were better.

https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyo ... -in-japan/

https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/toyota-p ... ti-ev-ads/

Hybrids and hydrogen still have a very large roll to play in various markets.


If hydrogen is going to be a player then the fueling infrastructure needs to start being rolled out now.


I would say that they should have done years ago. In China they built EV charging infrastructure over a decade. And they are still making them more and more powerful. An example of what I mean -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4OWiO-nsDg
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:38 pm

QF7 wrote:
pune wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicles-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673876862?mod=dist_amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.



ACDC8 wrote:
The other misleading factor in this thread, is that the original article says that 10% of new car sales last year were EV, thats not a very accurate metric to determine a trend given the current state of the new car market with empty lots, fewer choices if one needs a car today versus waiting a year plus for a preferred vehicle.


I agree that it is faulty logic to assume a trend will continue independent of market conditions. To take an example from another industry, look at Peloton. Most of the press focuses on how the end or at least decline of the pandemic (a market-skewing event if there ever was one) allowed for the reopening of gyms which thus presumably cratered the market for at-home exercise equipment. Less discussed is that there are only so many people who are willing to cough up several thousand dollars in purchase and ongoing subscription costs for “connected fitness” products. Once the initial market is saturated further growth becomes difficult, as is reflected in Peloton’s stock price.

The analogy to EVs is two-fold: there are only so many people who are willing or able to pay premium prices for EVs, and secondly, as discussed in this thread, EVs don’t make sense for all consumers for various reasons. To the first point the sub-20k consumer is a value shopper who will only consider an EV if it provides equal or better value to other alternatives. Any drop in the price of gasoline/petrol shifts the value calculation in favor of ICE. Same thing if and when tax incentives are phased out. Both of these have a market-skewing influence. And to the second point, to grow beyond the initial market demand EVs (or some other technology) have to overcome the range limitations and other reasons that make them unsuitable for many buyers.

Having said that, assuming Tesla can take out enough cost to profitably sell EVs in the sub-20k segment, what’s to stop other manufacturers from doing the same thing? Tesla’s not going to have some secret recipe no one else can replicate. I hardly see many nails being driven in other companies for that reason.


Again assumptions. If you look at trends right now and what has hold good for many years is that EV vehicles do not depreciate in value as gas cars do. Of course, if supply were to increase rapidly, and as shared by others there is still a lot of outstanding orders for EV irrespective of companies, so near to medium future if one looks at it purely as an investment, then it may make sense, would suggest you to see the video shared above which compares list prices between gas/petrol/diesel cars and EV. And that is not taking into account the subsidies being given by Federal and State/Provincial authorities.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:48 pm

luckyone wrote:
Revelation wrote:

luckyone wrote:
... but in Western markets I actually think it will be the Koreans who really send prices down.

Don't forget about the Chinese. Right now there's a true blood bath between Chinese EV companies. Eventually a winner or two will be crowned and all the government favoritism will focus on them. BYD is the name most know, but there is still a shakeout going on. It's pretty clear their government sees winning in the EV space as an imperative. I know there is a lot of trade and political friction with China these days, but in the end everyone follows the golden rule, the gold rules.

I think there's sufficient time before the Chinese are able to make their move in the US market. It will take years for them to be able to set up a US distribution network (unless they buy their bedmate Tesla), and the Koreans will likely have the time to take advantage of that -- heck even the Vietnamese are ahead of the Chinese right now in terms of setting up US production. The Big 3 will push for tariffs and it has a good chance of happening regardless of who's in the White House.

I'm also somewhat skeptical of the American public's willingness to buy a Chinese CAR, at least right away. Americans and their cars are very image driven and we use cars as a statement. We'll tolerate cheap Chinese electronics or things that may not be visible, but parking a Chinese car in their driveway for the world to see I suspect will take more time than previous foreign entries, but I agree eventually they will have some presence assuming there isn't some political barrier or a battle about IP (because all the technology that goes into those Teslas made in Shanghai WILL eventually make its way into China's vehicles). Another key difference will be the infrastructure for an EV. Japanese and Korean manufacturers started their efforts at the bottom of the market -- I don't know that the infrastructure will be there any time soon for the entirely price conscious lower income folks who either don't have a regular parking spot or live in a more rural area to be willing to consider an EV, even if it is cheap. The Koreans (and Japanese for that matter, whenever they really get into EVs), meanwhile, are now firmly established in the middle of the market, where these price changes can have an impact.


On the geopolitical angle, don't think so because the big "three" GM, Stellatis and Ford all have big investments in China and is a huge market for them. Stellantis lost big in China as they don't really have an EV product and the market in China is getting into EV. It is already 35% of the market right now and by year-end would be 40%+ . They had to file for bankruptcy although they tried to go for political stuff. And I would be suprised if they don't become 100% electric by 2030 at the scorching pace they are setting. Even Musk was asked and shared that competition for him is only Chinese.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/30/busi ... index.html

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/12/30/ch ... ve-a-plug/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-AA16MoVM
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:59 pm

Revelation wrote:

Strange, I'm old enough to have lived through the days were VWs were not socially acceptable, followed by the Japanese imports not being socially acceptable. People turned up their noses at both, but eventually price/performance won them over. No reason to think it won't work with Chinese products. They'll grease the right palms and the doors will open to them. They're a most favored trading partner, right?

I think the eventual situation will be that ICEs will no longer be an option, be it due to environmental, economic or political reasons. I think this is at least a decade out, but I see it happening. As Kiwirob relates, in Norway gas stations are disappearing. I think that will happen here too, but it'll take longer.


I agree. You need good policy and good people to carry them out. While I won't say the Chinese as 'good' but they are aggressive and willing to play the long game. Even in salt batteries (which will reduce prices enormously while driving energy density more) they are the ones putting up the all the papers and inventing stuff. As can be seen huge difference in China and the U.S. as far as electrification goes and they are still out-competing U.S. while Republicans still want gas :(

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -of-the-us
 
JJJ
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:29 pm

pune wrote:
alberchico wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The elephant (mammoth, mastodon) in the globe will be Toyota waking up and aggressively entering the EV world.


The big problem with Toyota is that they were asleep at the wheel for many years thinking that electric cars would be a novelty and hybrid vehicles would be the way of the future, possibly followed by fuel cell vehicles. Only now with new leadership do they have a chance to devote their vast resources to the EV market but they have a lot of catching up to do.

https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/toyota-c ... -movement/

In the past Toyota were so against electric vehicles that they actively spread propaganda in Japan to convince people that hybrid cars were better.

https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyo ... -in-japan/

https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/toyota-p ... ti-ev-ads/


Fully agree, on the money. They were able to sell something like 10-12 hydrogen cars, couldn't make any money and then had to shelve that.


Toyota sold over 20K Mirai FCEV last year. And production will increase following the infrastructure.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:42 pm

JJJ wrote:
pune wrote:
alberchico wrote:

The big problem with Toyota is that they were asleep at the wheel for many years thinking that electric cars would be a novelty and hybrid vehicles would be the way of the future, possibly followed by fuel cell vehicles. Only now with new leadership do they have a chance to devote their vast resources to the EV market but they have a lot of catching up to do.

https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/toyota-c ... -movement/

In the past Toyota were so against electric vehicles that they actively spread propaganda in Japan to convince people that hybrid cars were better.

https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyo ... -in-japan/

https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/toyota-p ... ti-ev-ads/


Fully agree, on the money. They were able to sell something like 10-12 hydrogen cars, couldn't make any money and then had to shelve that.


Toyota sold over 20K Mirai FCEV last year. And production will increase following the infrastructure.


From what I saw and read they were officially on the red last year 3rd quarter -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dFeJnzFGjk
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:48 pm

Sadly, even Ford didn't get till 6 months back -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxM_ZH8QHMI
 
JJJ
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:42 pm

pune wrote:
JJJ wrote:
pune wrote:

Fully agree, on the money. They were able to sell something like 10-12 hydrogen cars, couldn't make any money and then had to shelve that.


Toyota sold over 20K Mirai FCEV last year. And production will increase following the infrastructure.


From what I saw and read they were officially on the red last year 3rd quarter -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dFeJnzFGjk


If it really said that, your source is wrong.

Toyota keeps making FCEVs, just like Hyundai and others.
 
cpd
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:42 pm

pune wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
I would like to see more EV's as buses, small to medium commercial vehicles, especially mail, package and freight delivery, in cities and suburban areas. The limited range needed, easier supporting recharging infrastructure, overall reduction in air pollution, slow speeds, stop/go driving conditions are ideal for EV's..We also need to reduce the need for individual passenger vehicles for commuting to work and shopping. I have a neice who have a ICE minivan and her husband has a Hyundai Ionic 5 sedan. He uses it mainly to commute to work about 30 miles round trip several times a week (he can work at home the other days).
I still think ICE's mainly as hybrids, will have to be around for long distance travel, for use where electrical services are very limited, isolated rural areas, very hot/cold temperature use.
Still that an increasing shift to full EV's as passenger vehicles exceeding already over 10% in some countries is encouraging and with likely improvements in battery and other technology and more vehicles, in particular small to medium CUV/SUV's, mean lower cost models (like less than $30K (USD).so more can consider them.


That is Tesla Semi, they are going to replace lot of trucks. Ideally, would like more more manufacturers to do the same. Toyota CEO had to resign for electrification to happen in Toyota.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-AA16LdFR

But they have shared before that their EV process is not upto mark vis-a-vis Tesla. Their cars are much more heavier, hence more expensive and it's a vicious circle. All their hopes is on the new CEO that he will live upto mark.

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/column ... 00413.html


Electric trucks of various sizes (including large ones) were already on sale and in customer hands before the Tesla Semi finished its testing. The Tesla looks like a game of playing catch up but might be too little too late.

Same for electric buses. (Mercedes).
 
BowlingShoeDC9
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:54 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Revelation wrote:
BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:
The problem is that the “marketing whizzes” at Ford are trying to make Mustang into a brand in of itself. GM is going to be doing the same with Corvette too in the next few years. Ultimately, I think the blame can be traced back to BMW with their ///M brand. Ultimately, that’s provided the genesis for the whole “sub-brand” concept.

There are three things in the life that are guaranteed. Death, taxes, and the bean counters/marketing people ruining everything.

Why is it ruining anything? You don't like it, you don't buy it and move on.

When I think of this approach, actually I think of Cadillac first, not BMW. Cadillac applied their "design language" from their sedans to their SUVs and had a huge money-spinner with Escalade. Take the same old GM SUV, put a new nose and some better interior detailing on it, mark up the price 50%! What a deal!

Then the Porsche Cayenne followed. Same idea. Purists hated it, but it's raking in the cash.

Kiwirob wrote:
I have no idea what it's like in the US, in Norway petrol stations are closing down.

In my US town, I see more gas/petrol stations being added. I had a friend who managed one such station and he said they made next to no profit on the gas/petrol, it was all on the merchandise side. Basically, the gas/petrol is the loss leader that brings you to the actual profit center, the convenience store where all the stuff has big markups. Not sure what happens when there's no need to stop at the pumps. Tesla has located its charging stations mostly at restaurant parking lots since a charge takes a good 20 minutes or so. Guess that will be the model that takes over?

luckyone wrote:
... but in Western markets I actually think it will be the Koreans who really send prices down.

Don't forget about the Chinese. Right now there's a true blood bath between Chinese EV companies. Eventually a winner or two will be crowned and all the government favoritism will focus on them. BYD is the name most know, but there is still a shakeout going on. It's pretty clear their government sees winning in the EV space as an imperative. I know there is a lot of trade and political friction with China these days, but in the end everyone follows the golden rule, the gold rules.


I think you’ll find they all followed Mercedes the M Class came out in 97, the Escalade and BMW X5 in 99, the Cayenne and VW Toureag in 2002.


The creation of SUV isn’t the topic I’m talking about here. Ford and GM have had those for decades. It’s the creation of the “sub-brand” concept. The brand within a brand. Mustang for Ford, and Corvette for GM.
 
ACDC8
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:22 pm

pune wrote:
Where. AFAIK they met and beat market expectations.

https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/el ... 30296.html

LOL - why do you think Tesla dropped their prices? Because they were bored? They're losing market share, as everyone knew they would.
pune wrote:
Assumptions?? This is a 5 month old video but should get you started -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-2_JBuXgDE

Don't need a video - I can do simple arithmetic.
pune wrote:
They were able to sell something like 10-12 hydrogen cars, couldn't make any money and then had to shelve that.

Hydrogen car sales grew globally by 8.8% in the last year, Hyundai leading the pack. Funny how EV shills always ignore how long it took EVs to gain traction and argue that other sources of ZEVs are "dead" because they're in the same boat as EVs were.

There are billions of cars and trucks on the road, and there are a multitude of jobs those cars and trucks need to do - one would have to be delusional to believe that EVs are going to be the only player.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:22 am

ACDC8 wrote:
pune wrote:
Where. AFAIK they met and beat market expectations.

https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/el ... 30296.html

LOL - why do you think Tesla dropped their prices? Because they were bored? They're losing market share, as everyone knew they would.
pune wrote:
Assumptions?? This is a 5 month old video but should get you started -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-2_JBuXgDE

Don't need a video - I can do simple arithmetic.
pune wrote:
They were able to sell something like 10-12 hydrogen cars, couldn't make any money and then had to shelve that.

Hydrogen car sales grew globally by 8.8% in the last year, Hyundai leading the pack. Funny how EV shills always ignore how long it took EVs to gain traction and argue that other sources of ZEVs are "dead" because they're in the same boat as EVs were.

There are billions of cars and trucks on the road, and there are a multitude of jobs those cars and trucks need to do - one would have to be delusional to believe that EVs are going to be the only player.


You may believe whatever you chose to. When you choose to not see the evidence then of course it becomes a bad faith argument. Now as far as prices are concerned, they are competition only from BYD in China. There are others too, but BYD is the main competition to them, not any of the North American or European Manufacturers. Elon Musk had himself shared that and I shared the same above. The numbers speak for themselves. BYD has increased production 100% from 100,000 to 230k cumulative BEV and NEV vehicles.

https://www.carscoops.com/2022/12/byd-c ... ew-brands/

The lowering of prices should have been welcomed by people but we see otherwise.

And sadly this is because the RW says untrue statements on EV as most of them take money from fossil fuels.

https://fortune.com/2022/10/31/midterm- ... n-economy/

Btw Ford has also cut prices, only GM hasn't what does that show. And now both GM and Ford are moving to Tesla's 4680 battery tech.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry- ... msrp-cuts/
 
ACDC8
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:47 am

pune wrote:
You may believe whatever you chose to. When you choose to not see the evidence then of course it becomes a bad faith argument.

I only believe in reality and the evidence of that is other sources of green energy will be a viable player in the ZEV market, so much so that there are starting construction in a massive hydrogen processing facility where I live in Vancouver. More and more hydrogen fuelling stations are being built and even more are in development.
pune wrote:
Now as far as prices are concerned, they are competition only from BYD in China. There are others too, but BYD is the main competition to them, not any of the North American or European Manufacturers. Elon Musk had himself shared that and I shared the same above. The numbers speak for themselves. BYD has increased production 100% from 100,000 to 230k cumulative BEV and NEV vehicles.

And dropping prices in the Canadian and US car market has exactly what to do with the Chinese market? Nothing.

The prices were dropped here because of the increase in completion here - not in China, not in India and not in Oompaloompaland.


pune wrote:
Btw Ford has also cut prices

Already mentioned previously - thanks.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:07 am

About hydrogen, how much it would be would probably be in Fully Charged show that will happen in Canada on 9th and 10th September 2023 -

https://ca.fullycharged.live/
 
ACDC8
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:21 am

pune wrote:
About hydrogen, how much it would be would probably be in Fully Charged show that will happen in Canada on 9th and 10th September 2023 -

https://ca.fullycharged.live/

What the hell does hydrogen have to do with an EV convention?
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:30 am

ACDC8 wrote:
pune wrote:
About hydrogen, how much it would be would probably be in Fully Charged show that will happen in Canada on 9th and 10th September 2023 -

https://ca.fullycharged.live/

What the hell does hydrogen have to do with an EV convention? :rotfl:


Usually all alternative energy serious solution makers would be there. It is like saying if there is a Car convention, then there wouldn't be EV's or something equally absurd like that. For e.g. heat pumps and many other such manufactures, energy storage i.e. batteries and whatever different types of energy conversion, storage etc. would be there. The people who would be looking at above are already tuned to the idea of alternative energy way of doing things. So you have a ready market. And these are people who are and have paid tickets for the convention. If people are just looking at one end and not the macro then they are gonna miss out on a lot. Tesla Energy for e.g. would be much bigger than whatever they do in cars or trucks or whatever new product they bring in. Both will grow, but the energy side will grow much bigger.

An example of that is mixenergy which is one of the brands that is taking part in fully charged.
Last edited by pune on Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
ACDC8
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:33 am

pune wrote:
Usually all alternative energy serious solution makers would be there. It is like saying if there is a Car convention, then there wouldn't be EV's or something equally absurd like that. For e.g. heat pumps and many other such manufactures, energy storage i.e. batteries and whatever different types of energy conversion, storage etc. would be there. The people who would be looking at above are already tuned to the idea of alternative energy way of doing things. So you have a ready market. And these are people who are and have paid tickets for the convention. If people are just looking at one end and not the macro then they are gonna miss out on a lot. Tesla Energy for e.g. would be much bigger than whatever they do in cars or trucks or whatever new product they bring in. Both will grow, but the energy side will grow much bigger.

Gee I don't know, maybe because its an EV convention and not an alternative energy convention? They are catering to and showcasing their industry which is EVs.
 
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:37 am

ACDC8 wrote:
pune wrote:
Usually all alternative energy serious solution makers would be there. It is like saying if there is a Car convention, then there wouldn't be EV's or something equally absurd like that. For e.g. heat pumps and many other such manufactures, energy storage i.e. batteries and whatever different types of energy conversion, storage etc. would be there. The people who would be looking at above are already tuned to the idea of alternative energy way of doing things. So you have a ready market. And these are people who are and have paid tickets for the convention. If people are just looking at one end and not the macro then they are gonna miss out on a lot. Tesla Energy for e.g. would be much bigger than whatever they do in cars or trucks or whatever new product they bring in. Both will grow, but the energy side will grow much bigger.

Gee I don't know, maybe because its an EV convention and not an alternative energy convention? They are catering to and showcasing their industry which is EVs.


Knew you would say that hence shared what I mean other than Tesla. I have been in similar conventions in my country for sciences, but no sense arguing when you already have made your mind up.
 
ACDC8
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:43 am

pune wrote:
Knew you would say that hence shared what I mean other than Tesla.

My comment have about hydrogen not being represented at an EV convention has nothing to do with Tesla.

You don't market Star Wars stuff at a Star Trek convention.
pune wrote:
I have been in similar conventions in my country for sciences,

Congratulations.
pune wrote:
but no sense arguing when you already have made your mind up.

I haven't made up my mind on anything, I simply choose to accept the reality of an evolving and complex world, and that reality is there will be more than one viable player in the ZEV market out of need, demand and necessity.

Refusing to accept anything other than EVs, and fantasize that Tesla and BYD are the only manufacturers who have any relevance or future in the market is the very definition of "making ones mind up".
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:04 am

The way I see it, you cannot make hydrogen either as easily or whatever as you can make out of combination of solar and battery technology. Hydrogen will have niche uses but nothing like what these two have. And these solutions have been in market, known to work and are relatively inexpensive. A professor who knows what hydrogen can or cannot do has already shared just 3 months back -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlOCS95Jvjc
 
ACDC8
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:08 am

pune wrote:
The way I see it, you cannot make hydrogen either as easily or whatever as you can make out of combination of solar and battery technology. Hydrogen will have niche uses but nothing like what these two have. And these solutions have been in market, known to work and are relatively inexpensive. A professor who knows what hydrogen can or cannot do has already shared just 3 months back -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlOCS95Jvjc

Hydrogen has a vital roll going forward to reduce global emissions, whether you choose to accept that reality or not is entirely up to you.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:35 am

ACDC8 wrote:
pune wrote:
The way I see it, you cannot make hydrogen either as easily or whatever as you can make out of combination of solar and battery technology. Hydrogen will have niche uses but nothing like what these two have. And these solutions have been in market, known to work and are relatively inexpensive. A professor who knows what hydrogen can or cannot do has already shared just 3 months back -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlOCS95Jvjc

Hydrogen has a vital roll going forward to reduce global emissions, whether you choose to accept that reality or not is entirely up to you.


Toyota has been talking about hydrogen for 2 decades now, I remember reading about MegaWeb back in the mid 2000's so they have been talking about it since then. If they really had been serious in that then they should have outclassed Tesla and others in production and infrastructure by a large margin. 20 years is a long-long time frame, more than enough to make an industry. FWIW Tesla came in 2014 so Toyota already had 15 years before them.

https://mag.toyota.co.uk/toyota-mega-web/
 
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QF7
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:35 am

Why do these threads always end up being a compendium of YouTube links?

Actually I’m not even sure what this thread is about any more.
 
ACDC8
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:44 am

pune wrote:
Toyota has been talking about hydrogen for 2 decades now, I remember reading about MegaWeb back in the mid 2000's so they have been talking about it since then. If they really had been serious in that then they should have outclassed Tesla and others in production and infrastructure by a large margin. 20 years is a long-long time frame, more than enough to make an industry. FWIW Tesla came in 2014 so Toyota already had 15 years before them.

https://mag.toyota.co.uk/toyota-mega-web/

And EVs have been talked about much longer than that, yet they only really started to become viable over the last decade - just like hydrogen, there is a time for everything.
 
ACDC8
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:44 am

QF7 wrote:
Why do these threads always end up being a compendium of YouTube links?

Actually I’m not even sure what this thread is about any more.

Yup, always the same articles and videos posted over and over again, thread after thread after thread.
 
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Aesma
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:50 am

Fuel Cell hydrogen cars are EV, they're even called that, FCEV, fuel cell electric vehicles. The engine is an electric engine. They even have a battery to start the fuel cell.

"electric cars" are more rightly called BEV, battery electric vehicles.

Aside from that, the latest research casts doubts on the green credentials of hydrogen. Even forgetting the fact that more than 90% of hydrogen is made from natural gas, the problem is that it has a tendency to leak, over days your tank is emptying itself, not very practical or economical. And hydrogen is a greenhouse gas, so it escaping is a disaster. Same if used in pipelines, in gas stations, in trucks, it will leak and leak and leak.

About China I feel tariffs are coming, both in the EU and US.

I've been sitting on an order for a Peugeot e-208 for a couple of months now.

It would be grey like this, albeit with logos from my company, as it's a company car :

Image

The problem is that my company hasn't really figured out how we're supposed to charge at home (or rather, we're not), which I feel is the determining factor and biggest advantage (and disadvantage if you can't) of a BEV. I'm not fancying sitting at a fast charger waiting or getting my laptop out to "work" every week or so, or more.
 
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:02 am

pune wrote:
Toyota has been talking about hydrogen for 2 decades now … 20 years is a long-long time frame


If we’re going to talk about hydrogen…

Twenty years is nothing in the big scheme of things. People talked about EVs for much longer than that but the battery technology was simply not advanced enough to make it practical until relatively recently. Even now EV batteries don’t provide enough range to be useful for many applications.

The thing about hydrogen is, it is abundant. The oceans are full of hydrogen. Yes, it’s a challenge to separate it from oxygen in commercially viable quantities but it is well within mankind’s capabilities to solve that problem.

The thing about EVs is they depend on rare earths, both for the batteries and the magnets in the motors. Rare earths are by definition, rare, not abundant.

Just because science and engineering are at a particular point today doesn’t mean we won’t continue to make progress. And when there is a limitless supply of energy available it makes sense to pursue it.
 
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Aesma
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:57 am

There are already motors and batteries without (or with little) rare earth.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:28 am

QF7 wrote:
pune wrote:
Toyota has been talking about hydrogen for 2 decades now … 20 years is a long-long time frame


If we’re going to talk about hydrogen…

Twenty years is nothing in the big scheme of things. People talked about EVs for much longer than that but the battery technology was simply not advanced enough to make it practical until relatively recently. Even now EV batteries don’t provide enough range to be useful for many applications.

The thing about hydrogen is, it is abundant. The oceans are full of hydrogen. Yes, it’s a challenge to separate it from oxygen in commercially viable quantities but it is well within mankind’s capabilities to solve that problem.

The thing about EVs is they depend on rare earths, both for the batteries and the magnets in the motors. Rare earths are by definition, rare, not abundant.

Just because science and engineering are at a particular point today doesn’t mean we won’t continue to make progress. And when there is a limitless supply of energy available it makes sense to pursue it.


The problem is of separation and all the methods as have been shared are more expensive than a combo of wind or solar and battery. The other thing, before Tesla arrived on scene & I have shared this numerous times, GM actually made something called EV1 because of the Californian air mandates back in 2000 itself. Then they literally scrapped because these were better than what they had as 'mainstream' . If Tesla hadn't come when they did we all would be having poisonous air. There is beyond doubt science on that as have shared numerous times.

Example of what I mean - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18643868/

When you say grand scheme of things, it may take anywhere between 10-20 or even 50 years but by that time where would EV be. You cannot expect that EV Tech would remain at stand still. Economics is the great leveller. Until and unless Hydrogen separation is cheaper and the technology widely available don't see it taking off.

FWIW, Tesla has opened up lot of its secrets but for most legacy auto manufacturers they find it harder to copy as they have been doing things one way and whether others or they themselves lead with the idea that gas is here to stay but now they know that sooner or later, it would be passe and just like Norway the prices on second-hand would drop like stone. It is inevitable unless of course Governments say screw Earth and Climate promises.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:39 am

For people who are worried about EV's in cold weather, solutions do exist like Tesla's heat pump and these solutions and more should make things more easier. Now whether they should be mandatory or opt-in really depends on markets and people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyGgrkeds5U
 
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QF7
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:26 am

pune wrote:
Until and unless Hydrogen separation is cheaper and the technology widely available don't see it taking off.

Until gasoline engines can go more than 20 miles without breaking down and needing repair I don’t see them replacing horses.
 
pune
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:46 am

QF7 wrote:
pune wrote:
Until and unless Hydrogen separation is cheaper and the technology widely available don't see it taking off.

Until gasoline engines can go more than 20 miles without breaking down and needing repair I don’t see them replacing horses.


True, but you are forgetting that is an alternative technology which is off the shelf available. EV's and the charging infrastructure can be made. The economics is already there. And again it's a chicken and egg thing. Even in a backward country like India, we have recharge India app. and the number of charging spots are growing exponentially. My own city has somewhere now something like 200 odd EV charging spots and poised to grow double the number in the next 12-18 months.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 6:31 am

BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Why is it ruining anything? You don't like it, you don't buy it and move on.

When I think of this approach, actually I think of Cadillac first, not BMW. Cadillac applied their "design language" from their sedans to their SUVs and had a huge money-spinner with Escalade. Take the same old GM SUV, put a new nose and some better interior detailing on it, mark up the price 50%! What a deal!

Then the Porsche Cayenne followed. Same idea. Purists hated it, but it's raking in the cash.


In my US town, I see more gas/petrol stations being added. I had a friend who managed one such station and he said they made next to no profit on the gas/petrol, it was all on the merchandise side. Basically, the gas/petrol is the loss leader that brings you to the actual profit center, the convenience store where all the stuff has big markups. Not sure what happens when there's no need to stop at the pumps. Tesla has located its charging stations mostly at restaurant parking lots since a charge takes a good 20 minutes or so. Guess that will be the model that takes over?


Don't forget about the Chinese. Right now there's a true blood bath between Chinese EV companies. Eventually a winner or two will be crowned and all the government favoritism will focus on them. BYD is the name most know, but there is still a shakeout going on. It's pretty clear their government sees winning in the EV space as an imperative. I know there is a lot of trade and political friction with China these days, but in the end everyone follows the golden rule, the gold rules.


I think you’ll find they all followed Mercedes the M Class came out in 97, the Escalade and BMW X5 in 99, the Cayenne and VW Toureag in 2002.


The creation of SUV isn’t the topic I’m talking about here. Ford and GM have had those for decades. It’s the creation of the “sub-brand” concept. The brand within a brand. Mustang for Ford, and Corvette for GM.


Ford has had sub brands for years as well, Lincoln, Merkur, Mercury. Bronco could also be added to the list .
 
ACDC8
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Re: 10% of all new new vehicles sold were EV's

Wed Feb 01, 2023 7:15 am

Kiwirob wrote:
Ford has had sub brands for years as well, Lincoln, Merkur, Mercury. Bronco could also be added to the list .

Bronco and Mustang aren't brands - they're models.
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