https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elect ... amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.

Add to that Musk announcements of supercharged network for all and lot more supercharger network. 2023 is gonna make lot of changes.

Also the pickup in Australia for both solar and whatnot is highly encouraging. In fact, last quarter majority of the time in Queenland and few other places they had exclusive green energy and lower prices like never before.

pune wrote:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicles-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673876862?mod=dist_amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.

Add to that Musk announcements of supercharged network for all and lot more supercharger network. 2023 is gonna make lot of changes.

Also the pickup in Australia for both solar and whatnot is highly encouraging. In fact, last quarter majority of the time in Queenland and few other places they had exclusive green energy and lower prices like never before.

Now that so much of daytime peak supply in Australia is form renewables (we still need a lot more work on large scale despatchable storage), EVs are pretty much the logical choice for new cars.

The problem is supply - Kia EV6 for example is fully allocated until 2025. As well as supply of model that have launched here, we seem to have around 10% of the models available in the UK or Japan. My next car will be an EV, but I'm not prepared to commit now to a model that only partially meets my needs and has a long delivery timetable.

Australia being so far behind at Renewables always surprised me. But the coal industry was a strong one - good they finally get their staff together (in Germany we also had considerable forces opposing renewables).

The problem, also in Germany, is that cars last 15 to 25 years today. So if we have 10% market share for BEVs, we still today get 90% of combustion cars which will still drive in 2040. I believe by 2025 we will finally see a substantial change in the market share when supply chain issues are overcome. Question is just whether the traffic sector is adapting fast enough.

Kent350787 wrote:

pune wrote:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicles-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673876862?mod=dist_amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.

Add to that Musk announcements of supercharged network for all and lot more supercharger network. 2023 is gonna make lot of changes.

Also the pickup in Australia for both solar and whatnot is highly encouraging. In fact, last quarter majority of the time in Queenland and few other places they had exclusive green energy and lower prices like never before.

Now that so much of daytime peak supply in Australia is form renewables (we still need a lot more work on large scale despatchable storage), EVs are pretty much the logical choice for new cars.

The problem is supply - Kia EV6 for example is fully allocated until 2025. As well as supply of model that have launched here, we seem to have around 10% of the models available in the UK or Japan. My next car will be an EV, but I'm not prepared to commit now to a model that only partially meets my needs and has a long delivery timetable.

If I was Musk I'd build a giga factory in Australia just to show the locals that vehicles can be built in Australia and sold at a profit.

I had a BMW i40 on order, I canceled it before Christmas but the dealer kept the allocation and is building the vehicle to my spec, the salesman contacted me last week asking if I'd changed my mind, if I had the delivery would now be in Nov/Dec not June.

I hope that Tesla's massive price drop will flow through to other manufacturers.

Why did you cancel it if I may ask? The delivery issues are annoying. I have an VW ID.3 First Edition and despite its flaws, I intend to keep it after the lease expires - and after a few years I will make it the 2nd car.

TheSonntag wrote:

Why did you cancel it if I may ask? The delivery issues are annoying. I have an VW ID.3 First Edition and despite its flaws, I intend to keep it after the lease expires - and after a few years I will make it the 2nd car.

Space really, we had one for a weekend demo, I loved it, but the problem is it's to replace our A6 Avant, so it came down to me wanting it and my wife saying we need more boot space.

It's not as if BMW couldn't make an i4 touring, it would be an easy car to build, the i4 is an electric 3 series after all, they build an i4 sedan for the Chinese market.

I'm a convert to electrification, not for environmental reasons, I'll be long dead, they're cheap to run, and at least with the Mini Cooper SE we bought a lot of fun to drive. We've driven about 2000km in the car since we bought it, its used 410kw of eletricity, which has cost about 300kr, to travel the same distance in the A1 it replaced is at least 3.5 tanks of fuel at 800kr a tank, it's saved about 2500kr so far, plus we don't use the big car as often, I haven't filled it's tank since before Christmas.

TheSonntag wrote:

Australia being so far behind at Renewables always surprised me. But the coal industry was a strong one - good they finally get their staff together (in Germany we also had considerable forces opposing renewables).

The problem, also in Germany, is that cars last 15 to 25 years today. So if we have 10% market share for BEVs, we still today get 90% of combustion cars which will still drive in 2040. I believe by 2025 we will finally see a substantial change in the market share when supply chain issues are overcome. Question is just whether the traffic sector is adapting fast enough.

I have a German car that is already 18 years old and shows no sign of quitting.

I keep thinking its replacement will be an EV, but since their is no clear choice, I just keep the gasser running, hoping there will be a clear choice later.

My main problem with Tesla is the horror of their support network. I'm not going to invest that much money into a car not knowing it can be serviced in a reasonable amount of time with good feedback from the service provider. If you get into an accident with a Tesla, you often have to go without a car for months. That alone is a deal breaker. Then you add in what a scumbag their CEO has shown himself to be, and the lack of super-charging in my area, and it's just not going to happen.

My hope is that competition opens up the market to more acceptable alternatives. I hope the gasser makes it those 25 years, it'll mean I'll have more choices on what to buy next.

I would like to see more EV's as buses, small to medium commercial vehicles, especially mail, package and freight delivery, in cities and suburban areas. The limited range needed, easier supporting recharging infrastructure, overall reduction in air pollution, slow speeds, stop/go driving conditions are ideal for EV's..We also need to reduce the need for individual passenger vehicles for commuting to work and shopping. I have a neice who have a ICE minivan and her husband has a Hyundai Ionic 5 sedan. He uses it mainly to commute to work about 30 miles round trip several times a week (he can work at home the other days).
I still think ICE's mainly as hybrids, will have to be around for long distance travel, for use where electrical services are very limited, isolated rural areas, very hot/cold temperature use.
Still that an increasing shift to full EV's as passenger vehicles exceeding already over 10% in some countries is encouraging and with likely improvements in battery and other technology and more vehicles, in particular small to medium CUV/SUV's, mean lower cost models (like less than $30K (USD).so more can consider them.

Back in 2019 I was assuming that my Cybertruck would be delivered sometime early this year. LOL. Add to that Ford and GM have better advanced driver assist (ADA). Add further to that, it appears Teslas are amazingly expensive to repair after a collision (and slow too). Add also that Consumer Reports is not finding EVs all that reliable. (note - CU may not be perfect, but they are about the best. Tesla people do for the most part like their Teslas, they report that too). Another strike against Teslas is I really like having the buttons for advanced cruise control on the steering wheel, and under my right thumb. I can adjust speed in 1 mph increments, it does the braking and lane keeping well. The blind side monitoring makes freeway lane changing so much easier I use the mirrors after BSM indicates the lane is clear. This means the cognitive load of watching for erratic cars in that line is a few seconds per lane change not upwards a minute or two.

I'm on the committee to update our high rise condo with LEDs in all public spaces plus 40 amp EV chargers enough for one a unit. I may be looking at a different EV. My first car was a '65 red Mustang, maybe I should get another one!

Tesla says they are going to introduce a sub $20k EV. Didn’t they also say they were going to have the Cyber truck ready 3 years ago? What about Level 3 self driving? Turns out Mercedes beat them to the punch there.

What Tesla says they are going to do has no relation to fact. It’s just a PR stunt to keep their stock prices.

The truth of the matter is, Tesla is not in a good spot right now. All of their products are getting pretty long in the tooth, they are still dogged by quality issues, traditional OEM’s have caught up to and are starting to surpass the Tesla’s key performance advantages, and Elon Musk has made himself toxic to very people he’s going after for sales.

I’m by no means saying that Tesla is doomed, but at this rate, I’d honestly be shocked if their still around in 10 years and tbh the automotive industry and consumer would be better off for it at this point.

BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:

Tesla says they are going to introduce a sub $20k EV. Didn’t they also say they were going to have the Cyber truck ready 3 years ago? What about Level 3 self driving? Turns out Mercedes beat them to the punch there.

What Tesla says they are going to do has no relation to fact. It’s just a PR stunt to keep their stock prices.

The truth of the matter is, Tesla is not in a good spot right now. All of their products are getting pretty long in the tooth, they are still dogged by quality issues, traditional OEM’s have caught up to and are starting to surpass the Tesla’s key performance advantages, and Elon Musk has made himself toxic to very people he’s going after for sales.

I’m by no means saying that Tesla is doomed, but at this rate, I’d honestly be shocked if their still around in 10 years and tbh the automotive industry and consumer would be better off for it at this point.

Unless they get their quality in check and develop a new platform, I agree they won't be an independent manufacturer long term. I will not be surprised if/when they effectively specialize in what they actually do quite well, which is powertrain, and, joint venture with a big player. Who might that be? A coin toss IMHO between Stellantis and Ford.

The elephant (mammoth, mastodon) in the globe will be Toyota waking up and aggressively entering the EV world.

pune wrote:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicles-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673876862?mod=dist_amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.

Add to that Musk announcements of supercharged network for all and lot more supercharger network. 2023 is gonna make lot of changes.

Also the pickup in Australia for both solar and whatnot is highly encouraging. In fact, last quarter majority of the time in Queenland and few other places they had exclusive green energy and lower prices like never before.

What few other places? NSW?

My power bills are expensive, my solar inverter had stopped working (more than 10 years old, waiting for fix) so can you provide your source for lower prices than ever before?

The war in Ukraine is the blame apparently for high prices here a world away.

Kiwirob wrote:

Kent350787 wrote:

pune wrote:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicles-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673876862?mod=dist_amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.

Add to that Musk announcements of supercharged network for all and lot more supercharger network. 2023 is gonna make lot of changes.

Also the pickup in Australia for both solar and whatnot is highly encouraging. In fact, last quarter majority of the time in Queenland and few other places they had exclusive green energy and lower prices like never before.

Now that so much of daytime peak supply in Australia is form renewables (we still need a lot more work on large scale despatchable storage), EVs are pretty much the logical choice for new cars.

The problem is supply - Kia EV6 for example is fully allocated until 2025. As well as supply of model that have launched here, we seem to have around 10% of the models available in the UK or Japan. My next car will be an EV, but I'm not prepared to commit now to a model that only partially meets my needs and has a long delivery timetable.

If I was Musk I'd build a giga factory in Australia just to show the locals that vehicles can be built in Australia and sold at a profit.

I had a BMW i40 on order, I canceled it before Christmas but the dealer kept the allocation and is building the vehicle to my spec, the salesman contacted me last week asking if I'd changed my mind, if I had the delivery would now be in Nov/Dec not June.

I hope that Tesla's massive price drop will flow through to other manufacturers.

You can’t build anything In Australia - too expensive, you’d have to import people to work for $3/hour or so everyone says, or wait for the Australian dollar to be worth nothing. Sarcasm off…

It was no surprise that Mercedes would beat everyone to level 3 autonomous driving - Mercedes has always been a technical innovator and they have the resources/facilities to develop these things. They do it without hype.

luckyone wrote:

BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:

Tesla says they are going to introduce a sub $20k EV. Didn’t they also say they were going to have the Cyber truck ready 3 years ago? What about Level 3 self driving? Turns out Mercedes beat them to the punch there.

What Tesla says they are going to do has no relation to fact. It’s just a PR stunt to keep their stock prices.

The truth of the matter is, Tesla is not in a good spot right now. All of their products are getting pretty long in the tooth, they are still dogged by quality issues, traditional OEM’s have caught up to and are starting to surpass the Tesla’s key performance advantages, and Elon Musk has made himself toxic to very people he’s going after for sales.

I’m by no means saying that Tesla is doomed, but at this rate, I’d honestly be shocked if their still around in 10 years and tbh the automotive industry and consumer would be better off for it at this point.

Unless they get their quality in check and develop a new platform, I agree they won't be an independent manufacturer long term. I will not be surprised if/when they effectively specialize in what they actually do quite well, which is powertrain, and, joint venture with a big player. Who might that be? A coin toss IMHO between Stellantis and Ford.

While I don't follow the EV discussions closely, I have certainly noticed as of late that the big legacy players seem to be really upping their game on the EV front - GM, Toyota. As such, I have often wondered if Tesla will go the way of Blackberry/RIM when the Iphone took off.

cpd wrote:

pune wrote:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicles-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673876862?mod=dist_amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.

Add to that Musk announcements of supercharged network for all and lot more supercharger network. 2023 is gonna make lot of changes.

Also the pickup in Australia for both solar and whatnot is highly encouraging. In fact, last quarter majority of the time in Queenland and few other places they had exclusive green energy and lower prices like never before.

What few other places? NSW?

My power bills are expensive, my solar inverter had stopped working (more than 10 years old, waiting for fix) so can you provide your source for lower prices than ever before?

The war in Ukraine is the blame apparently for high prices here a world away.

Kiwirob wrote:

Kent350787 wrote:

Now that so much of daytime peak supply in Australia is form renewables (we still need a lot more work on large scale despatchable storage), EVs are pretty much the logical choice for new cars.

The problem is supply - Kia EV6 for example is fully allocated until 2025. As well as supply of model that have launched here, we seem to have around 10% of the models available in the UK or Japan. My next car will be an EV, but I'm not prepared to commit now to a model that only partially meets my needs and has a long delivery timetable.

If I was Musk I'd build a giga factory in Australia just to show the locals that vehicles can be built in Australia and sold at a profit.

I had a BMW i40 on order, I canceled it before Christmas but the dealer kept the allocation and is building the vehicle to my spec, the salesman contacted me last week asking if I'd changed my mind, if I had the delivery would now be in Nov/Dec not June.

I hope that Tesla's massive price drop will flow through to other manufacturers.

You can’t build anything In Australia - too expensive, you’d have to import people to work for $3/hour or so everyone says, or wait for the Australian dollar to be worth nothing. Sarcasm off…

It was no surprise that Mercedes would beat everyone to level 3 autonomous driving - Mercedes has always been a technical innovator and they have the resources/facilities to develop these things. They do it without hype.

Tesla can build vehicles profitably in high cost Germany, lower cost australia should be easy.

BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:

Tesla says they are going to introduce a sub $20k EV.

Reminds me of that $35k Model 3 they kept yammering on about. I think they had one out for like six months, but it was so embarassing their own ordering page tried to steer you to a $37k model that might actually be useful.

Didn’t they also say they were going to have the Cyber truck ready 3 years ago? What about Level 3 self driving? Turns out Mercedes beat them to the punch there.

What Tesla says they are going to do has no relation to fact. It’s just a PR stunt to keep their stock prices.

Their marketing has been dubious from the start.

The truth of the matter is, Tesla is not in a good spot right now. All of their products are getting pretty long in the tooth, they are still dogged by quality issues, traditional OEM’s have caught up to and are starting to surpass the Tesla’s key performance advantages, and Elon Musk has made himself toxic to very people he’s going after for sales.

Personally, I'd wait to see a bunch more real-world apples-to-apples comparisons before I decide.

From what I've read in the past, Tesla got the EV bits and the driving experience right, but most everything else (fit and finish, user interface, support) wrong. In the US at least, they have a huge lead on their charging network.

Most of their competitors have teething pains to get through.

Their CEO certainly has damaged their reputation, not to mention his own. Most of his quirks/flaws were tolerated when he was viewed as an eccentric techie, then he couldn't help himself and engaged in things a wiser man would have avoided.

skyservice_330 wrote:

While I don't follow the EV discussions closely, I have certainly noticed as of late that the big legacy players seem to be really upping their game on the EV front - GM, Toyota. As such, I have often wondered if Tesla will go the way of Blackberry/RIM when the Iphone took off.

Tesla's sales have already started to drop because of an increase in competition so Tesla dropped their prices substantially to try and boost sales again, the drop was also meant to bring it under the price threshold to qualify for Government EV rebates for sales here in Canada (and other jurisdiction) - the rebates are still the leading reason for people buying an EV here.

Revelation wrote:

Their marketing has been dubious from the start.

And quite misleading as well. They'll advertise a Tesla 3 for $45K, but in reality you have to pay $54K because their advertised price reflects a "potential" $9K in savings over 6 years. I believe they got called out on that here in Canada and had to change their advertising tactics.

As to the resident EV shill's topic, the world is a big place and 10% doesn't mean nothing until its broken down regionally. Some countries like Norway which has a large uptake in EV sales, make up a big part of that 10% . Where as places like Canada, while sales are increasing, those sales are literally only in 3 cities while they continue to be non-existent in the rest of the country. Numbers are fun, but the context of those numbers are more enjoyable. Hybrid sales in Canada have been booming, the waiting lists for a new hybrid are well over a year for some models and past 3 years for other models. Some trim levels for the '23 Camry Hybrid are already sold out and Corolla and Prius wait times are nearing two years, the Sienna and Sequoia have undetermined wait times meaning it could take years for a customer to expect delivery.

As far as Tesla goes, I've got nothing against EVs, if they work for you thats fantastic, but I'd walk before I ever would even consider buying a POS Tesla.

For my needs, I can see my next car being a hybrid, but I'm not ready for an EV yet...too many roadtrips. And no, I'm not going to buy one vehicle for urban running around and and another for longer highway trips.

ACDC8 wrote:

And quite misleading as well. They'll advertise a Tesla 3 for $45K, but in reality you have to pay $54K because their advertised price reflects a "potential" $9K in savings over 6 years. I believe they got called out on that here in Canada and had to change their advertising tactics.

Interesting. Pretty much everyone I know who said they were going to get a Model 3 or Y thought they'd spend in the mid-40s (never mind mid-30s or even 20k), but ended up spending in the mid-50s.

ACDC8 wrote:

As to the resident EV shill's topic, the world is a big place and 10% doesn't mean nothing until its broken down regionally. Some countries like Norway which has a large uptake in EV sales, make up a big part of that 10% . Where as places like Canada, while sales are increasing, those sales are literally only in 3 cities while they continue to be non-existent in the rest of the country. Numbers are fun, but the context of those numbers are more enjoyable.

Yeah, don't get me started on averages...

The fact that battery efficiency drops at low temperatures is another reason why I'm not rushing to buy an EV, at least till I move somewhere warmer.

johns624 wrote:

For my needs, I can see my next car being a hybrid, but I'm not ready for an EV yet...too many roadtrips.

Same here - I have a new car on order that I'm planning on keeping for the next 8-10 years at which point EV technology and infrastructure will be advanced enough to make them a viable option or there will be alternative "green" options on the market.

johns624 wrote:

For my needs, I can see my next car being a hybrid, but I'm not ready for an EV yet...too many roadtrips. And no, I'm not going to buy one vehicle for urban running around and and another for longer highway trips.

Some of my friends who were in relationships went with one EV and one gasser. The EV was used by the partner with the longer commute, the gasser was for the other partner and for long road trips. This worked out pretty well at my last place of employment, where they actually ate the cost of on-site charging because the CEO and his wife wanted the company to eat their own charging costs. They limited the charging bays to four for like 120 employees so it didn't get out of hand. My friend never charged at home, he could manage to get enough time in one of the bays to always charge at work.

ACDC8 wrote:

johns624 wrote:

For my needs, I can see my next car being a hybrid, but I'm not ready for an EV yet...too many roadtrips.

Same here - I have a new car on order that I'm planning on keeping for the next 8-10 years at which point EV technology and infrastructure will be advanced enough to make them a viable option or there will be alternative "green" options on the market.

I'm sure I can live with 300 mile range that some EVs offer, presuming I also spend for the in-house charger so I leave home with a full charge. Just not happy with the options as they now exist, and am happy to keep kicking the can down the road for as long as I can.

Revelation wrote:

I'm sure I can live with 300 mile range that some EVs offer, presuming I also spend for the in-house charger so I leave home with a full charge. Just not happy with the options as they now exist, and am happy to keep kicking the can down the road for as long as I can.

Its not just the range for me, its the charging dilemma. My building does not allow charging units to be installed (as do many buildings in the area) so I have no other option but to use a public charger and being car-less on one of my days off is simply out of the question.

My criteria for an EV has and will remain 700km minimum range and full charging time of less than 10 minutes with zero effect of battery life, until then, no EV for me.

Revelation wrote:

Interesting. Pretty much everyone I know who said they were going to get a Model 3 or Y thought they'd spend in the mid-40s (never mind mid-30s or even 20k), but ended up spending in the mid-50s.

The cheapest EVs you can get in Canada are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which start at over $40K CAD - for a sub compact, which very few people want these days. In Canada, a car has to fall under a MSRP of $55K CAD to qualify for Government rebates which is one of the reasons why Tesla dropped the price, but not many people here can afford $40K CAD on a car let alone $50K plus.

In regards to the rebates, the Federal Government offers up to $5K and Provincial Governments offer up to an additional $4K, which effectively cancels the tax on the purchase price - the rebates were only temporary and were halted a couple of years ago - as a result, EV sales completely tanked forcing the Government to reinstate the rebate program again to boost sales.

Kiwirob wrote:

I hope that Tesla's massive price drop will flow through to other manufacturers.

Apparently Ford is dropping the price on their Mach E (I refuse to call it a Mustang lol) in a hope to boost Ford's sales.

If a Porsche and a BMW can be a compact SUV, why not a Mustang?

frmrCapCadet wrote:

If a Porsche and a BMW can be a compact SUV, why not a Mustang?

Porsche doesn't call the Cayenne a 911 and BMW doesn't call the X5 an M5.

The other misleading factor in this thread, is that the original article says that 10% of new car sales last year were EV, thats not a very accurate metric to determine a trend given the current state of the new car market with empty lots, fewer choices if one needs a car today versus waiting a year plus for a preferred vehicle.

Take the Golf R for example, they are trickling off the assembly line, if I recall in December, they built and shipped a total of 17 Rs, my local dealership has a waiting list of over 200 people - and thats just one dealership in one city. I know people who put their order in back in 2021 and still have no ETA for delivery.

Point is, unless production is at normal levels, purchasing trends simply can't be accurately determined.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

If a Porsche and a BMW can be a compact SUV, why not a Mustang?

Porsche and BMW are car brands, not specific models - the Mustang is a specific model under a car brand (Ford).

N1120A wrote:

Porsche doesn't call the Cayenne a 911 and BMW doesn't call the X5 an M5.

Exactly.

ACDC8 wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

If a Porsche and a BMW can be a compact SUV, why not a Mustang?

Porsche and BMW are car brands, not specific models - the Mustang is a specific model under a car brand (Ford).

N1120A wrote:

Porsche doesn't call the Cayenne a 911 and BMW doesn't call the X5 an M5.

Exactly.

True, or you can think of Mustang as a "design language" that potentially could be applied to a SUV, or at least a CUV.

Revelation wrote:

True, or you can think of Mustang as a "design language" that potentially could be applied to a SUV, or at least a CUV.

It is a design language, but more of a market language - more people would be intrigued into buying a Mustang instead of just a Ford, which is why Ford decided to give it the Mustang name.

By all means, call it a Ford Mach E or take the Mustang, slap an EV power plant in it and call that a Mustang Mach E - but a 4 door Mustang CUV? No, just no.

Its bad enough having to call the MD95 a B717, or C-Series an A220, or a CRJ a Mitsubishi

ACDC8 wrote:

Its not just the range for me, its the charging dilemma. My building does not allow charging units to be installed (as do many buildings in the area) so I have no other option but to use a public charger and being car-less on one of my days off is simply out of the question.

That would be a deal breaker for me too.

ACDC8 wrote:

My criteria for an EV has and will remain 700km minimum range and full charging time of less than 10 minutes with zero effect of battery life, until then, no EV for me.

Then indeed it'll be no EV for you for quite a while, if ever.

There's no tech I know of that can provide "full charging time of less than 10 minutes with zero effect of battery life".

The problem comes when (if ever) you can't buy petroleum based fuels, which may or may not happen in our lifetimes, based on how various scientific, political and economical situations unfold over the years.

The math suggests to me I'll be dead before the Earth becomes uninhabitable, but you never know how those trend lines will change with time.

ACDC8 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

I hope that Tesla's massive price drop will flow through to other manufacturers.

Apparently Ford is dropping the price on their Mach E (I refuse to call it a Mustang lol) in a hope to boost Ford's sales.

Funny, that just showed up on Twitter:

Ford cut the cost of its electric crossover SUV Mustang Mach-E by as much as $5900, just weeks after rival Tesla slashed prices on its electric vehicles by as much as 20%

Ref: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1620207858976423936

frmrCapCadet wrote:

The elephant (mammoth, mastodon) in the globe will be Toyota waking up and aggressively entering the EV world.

The big problem with Toyota is that they were asleep at the wheel for many years thinking that electric cars would be a novelty and hybrid vehicles would be the way of the future, possibly followed by fuel cell vehicles. Only now with new leadership do they have a chance to devote their vast resources to the EV market but they have a lot of catching up to do.

https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/toyota-c ... -movement/

In the past Toyota were so against electric vehicles that they actively spread propaganda in Japan to convince people that hybrid cars were better.

https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyo ... -in-japan/

https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/toyota-p ... ti-ev-ads/

Revelation wrote:

Then indeed it'll be no EV for you for quite a while, if ever.

There's no tech I know of that can provide "full charging time of less than 10 minutes with zero effect of battery life".

The problem comes when (if ever) you can't buy petroleum based fuels, which may or may not happen in our lifetimes, based on how various scientific, political and economical situations unfold over the years.

The math suggests to me I'll be dead before the Earth becomes uninhabitable, but you never know how those trend lines will change with time.

Yup, like I said - just ordered a new car which will last me a good 8-10 years and then go from there, see where the technology is. The other thing is that Government car mandates call for Zero Emission Vehicles by a certain date, and the biggest misconception of that is that people think it means the car has to be electric, which is not the case, it can also be hydrogen (which our Government is investing heavily in) or plug-in hybrids - so there are other options available as well. A lot can and will happen in the next decade, I'm gonna wait it out.

For me personally, the only compelling argument for an EV is to save money, but if thats my goal, an EV is the worst option given the purchase cost. If I can get a simple compact car for half the price of an EV, it would take me years to recoup the cost difference, even at today's gas prices.

alberchico wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

The elephant (mammoth, mastodon) in the globe will be Toyota waking up and aggressively entering the EV world.

The big problem with Toyota is that they were asleep at the wheel for many years thinking that electric cars would be a novelty and hybrid vehicles would be the way of the future, possibly followed by fuel cell vehicles. Only now with new leadership do they have a chance to devote their vast resources to the EV market but they have a lot of catching up to do.

https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/toyota-c ... -movement/

In the past Toyota were so against electric vehicles that they actively spread propaganda in Japan to convince people that hybrid cars were better.

https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyo ... -in-japan/

https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/toyota-p ... ti-ev-ads/

Hybrids and hydrogen still have a very large roll to play in various markets.

ACDC8 wrote:

Yup, like I said - just ordered a new car which will last me a good 8-10 years and then go from there, see where the technology is. The other thing is that Government car mandates call for Zero Emission Vehicles by a certain date, and the biggest misconception of that is that people think it means the car has to be electric, which is not the case, it can also be hydrogen (which our Government is investing heavily in) or plug-in hybrids - so there are other options available as well. A lot can and will happen in the next decade, I'm gonna wait it out.

For me personally, the only compelling argument for an EV is to save money, but if thats your goal, an EV is the worst option given the cost. If one can get a simple compact car for half the price of an EV, it would take me years to recoup the cost difference, even at today's gas prices.

We're in agreement.

There will be a tipping point. I've seen it with AvGas. Used to be plentiful but as more airports became golf courses or shopping malls, less of it got sold, which meant that fewer refiners bothered making it, to the point where we are now where it's pretty damn rare and pretty damn expensive.

Yet it took decades for this to happen, and the math says I don't have all that many decades left to worry about it, I'm closer to the end than the beginning.

ACDC8 wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

If a Porsche and a BMW can be a compact SUV, why not a Mustang?

Porsche and BMW are car brands, not specific models - the Mustang is a specific model under a car brand (Ford).

N1120A wrote:

Porsche doesn't call the Cayenne a 911 and BMW doesn't call the X5 an M5.

Exactly.

The problem is that the “marketing whizzes” at Ford are trying to make Mustang into a brand in of itself. GM is going to be doing the same with Corvette too in the next few years. Ultimately, I think the blame can be traced back to BMW with their ///M brand. Ultimately, that’s provided the genesis for the whole “sub-brand” concept.

There are three things in the life that are guaranteed. Death, taxes, and the bean counters/marketing people ruining everything.

alberchico wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

The elephant (mammoth, mastodon) in the globe will be Toyota waking up and aggressively entering the EV world.

The big problem with Toyota is that they were asleep at the wheel for many years thinking that electric cars would be a novelty and hybrid vehicles would be the way of the future, possibly followed by fuel cell vehicles. Only now with new leadership do they have a chance to devote their vast resources to the EV market but they have a lot of catching up to do.

https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/toyota-c ... -movement/

In the past Toyota were so against electric vehicles that they actively spread propaganda in Japan to convince people that hybrid cars were better.

https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyo ... -in-japan/

https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/toyota-p ... ti-ev-ads/

To no one’s surprise Toyota was also the leader in hybrid sales and development. It wasn’t so much that they didn’t think that EV’s could be the future, they didn’t want to kill their cash cow.

Speaking of brands and models, what was Ford thinking of with the Maverick pickup? It's not like the original Maverick brings back fond memories for anyone. It was a dog.

johns624 wrote:

Speaking of brands and models, what was Ford thinking of with the Maverick pickup? It's not like the original Maverick brings back fond memories for anyone. It was a dog.

Nor was it a pick up lol.

At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if the brought back the Pinto nameplate, probably slap it on a Lincoln product

Kiwirob wrote:

cpd wrote:

pune wrote:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicles-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673876862?mod=dist_amp_social

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.

Add to that Musk announcements of supercharged network for all and lot more supercharger network. 2023 is gonna make lot of changes.

Also the pickup in Australia for both solar and whatnot is highly encouraging. In fact, last quarter majority of the time in Queenland and few other places they had exclusive green energy and lower prices like never before.

What few other places? NSW?

My power bills are expensive, my solar inverter had stopped working (more than 10 years old, waiting for fix) so can you provide your source for lower prices than ever before?

The war in Ukraine is the blame apparently for high prices here a world away.

Kiwirob wrote:

If I was Musk I'd build a giga factory in Australia just to show the locals that vehicles can be built in Australia and sold at a profit.

I had a BMW i40 on order, I canceled it before Christmas but the dealer kept the allocation and is building the vehicle to my spec, the salesman contacted me last week asking if I'd changed my mind, if I had the delivery would now be in Nov/Dec not June.

I hope that Tesla's massive price drop will flow through to other manufacturers.

You can’t build anything In Australia - too expensive, you’d have to import people to work for $3/hour or so everyone says, or wait for the Australian dollar to be worth nothing. Sarcasm off…

It was no surprise that Mercedes would beat everyone to level 3 autonomous driving - Mercedes has always been a technical innovator and they have the resources/facilities to develop these things. They do it without hype.

Tesla can build vehicles profitably in high cost Germany, lower cost australia should be easy.

There aren’t supply problems for Tesla as significant as some other manufacturers. We’re supplied from the Shanghai plant.

johns624 wrote:

Speaking of brands and models, what was Ford thinking of with the Maverick pickup? It's not like the original Maverick brings back fond memories for anyone. It was a dog.

Remember that Ford doesn't actually sell any small cars anymore. The Maverick fills the bottom of their model range now. There also is the fact that the F-150 and company going to huge bro-truck proportions and luxury-car levels of standard features leaves a gap for people who use a pickup truck to actually do stuff - plumbers and landscape crews can't keep driving 25-year-old Toyota Tacomas forever. As for why they called it the Maverick? Means they can sit on that trademark, probably. And I think the cult of *~branding~* that dominates auto marketing can't stand to let a nameplate that people recognize go to waste - even if it's not a nameplate that anyone recognizes fondly, it's the fact that people remember it that counts.

Newark727 wrote:

Remember that Ford doesn't actually sell any small cars anymore.

Actually, they don't sell any cars anymore, other than the Mustang - at least not in North America.

Personally, seeing that they have the F650, F550, F450, F350, F250, F150 - they should have just called it the F Mini 50

johns624 wrote:

Speaking of brands and models, what was Ford thinking of with the Maverick pickup? It's not like the original Maverick brings back fond memories for anyone. It was a dog.

Honestly Ford Motor Company does have the coolest names in the industry and it’s not even close. And I’m by no means a Ford homer.

• Mustang
• Bronco
• Nautilus
• Corsair (which might actually be the most bad ass car name ever. Shame its not on a cooler car)
• Navigator
• Aviator
• Explorer
• Expedition

It’s a shame that the Eco Sport drags the entire company’s “name score average” back to the mean

IMHO, the Mustang Mach-E should have been called the Stallion or Colt Mach-E. It keeps the horse theme going, establishes a clear equine themed sub-brand for specialty/high performance vehicles AND it doesn’t piss anyone off.

In our family's latest round of purchases, ICE's made the most sense for us, but I have little doubt that the next round will be EV. However, it will be a decade or more before we're part of the sales statistics again.

pune wrote:

And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor Day 1st March 2023. That will drive nails in many a company.

Not happening:

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesl ... elon-musk/

On Wednesday, during Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings call, CEO Elon Musk definitively debunked those rumors.

"We're not currently working on a $25,000 car," Musk said on the call. "We have too much on our plate."

On a positive note, their "$35,000" car has come back down in price to $43,990.

By the way, based on their 2022 financials, and assuming the average Model S or X sells for twice the price of the average Model 3 or Y, then the average price of the latter family is $51,600. Their profit margin is very good, but even at 17%, that still puts the cost-to-build somewhere around $44,000. That doesn't generate any concern for me about Tesla's market position at the current time, but it does help illustrate what the current economics are, and from that, hints at the level of cost reduction necessary to introduce a $25,000 EV.

The Leaf and the Bolt are relatively close to that price point, however. They're around $28,000.

ACDC8 wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Speaking of brands and models, what was Ford thinking of with the Maverick pickup? It's not like the original Maverick brings back fond memories for anyone. It was a dog.

Nor was it a pick up lol.

At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if the brought back the Pinto nameplate, probably slap it on a Lincoln product

I’d love it, put almost 300,000 miles in 2 Pintos, lots of 700-800 mile days. One memorable day returning from Arizona, called home the night before from outside Chicago. “Be home by 8 tomorrow night, Christmas Eve”. Next night at 805, pulled in the driveway in CT.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I’d love it, put almost 300,000 miles in 2 Pintos, lots of 700-800 mile days. One memorable day returning from Arizona, called home the night before from outside Chicago. “Be home by 8 tomorrow night, Christmas Eve”. Next night at 805, pulled in the driveway in CT.

LOL, thats awesome

Our first new car when we moved to Canada was a Ford Zephyr - lasted about 2 years and got traded in for a Corolla. The Zephyr did make it across the country though, so there's that.

Chrysler should bring back an EV K Car as well lol.

N1120A wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

If a Porsche and a BMW can be a compact SUV, why not a Mustang?

Porsche doesn't call the Cayenne a 911 and BMW doesn't call the X5 an M5.

BMW will sell you an X5M.

ACDC8 wrote:

alberchico wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

The elephant (mammoth, mastodon) in the globe will be Toyota waking up and aggressively entering the EV world.

The big problem with Toyota is that they were asleep at the wheel for many years thinking that electric cars would be a novelty and hybrid vehicles would be the way of the future, possibly followed by fuel cell vehicles. Only now with new leadership do they have a chance to devote their vast resources to the EV market but they have a lot of catching up to do.

https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/toyota-c ... -movement/

In the past Toyota were so against electric vehicles that they actively spread propaganda in Japan to convince people that hybrid cars were better.

https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyo ... -in-japan/

https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/toyota-p ... ti-ev-ads/

Hybrids and hydrogen still have a very large roll to play in various markets.

If hydrogen is going to be a player then the fueling infrastructure needs to start being rolled out now.

Revelation wrote:

ACDC8 wrote:

Yup, like I said - just ordered a new car which will last me a good 8-10 years and then go from there, see where the technology is. The other thing is that Government car mandates call for Zero Emission Vehicles by a certain date, and the biggest misconception of that is that people think it means the car has to be electric, which is not the case, it can also be hydrogen (which our Government is investing heavily in) or plug-in hybrids - so there are other options available as well. A lot can and will happen in the next decade, I'm gonna wait it out.

For me personally, the only compelling argument for an EV is to save money, but if thats your goal, an EV is the worst option given the cost. If one can get a simple compact car for half the price of an EV, it would take me years to recoup the cost difference, even at today's gas prices.

We're in agreement.

There will be a tipping point. I've seen it with AvGas. Used to be plentiful but as more airports became golf courses or shopping malls, less of it got sold, which meant that fewer refiners bothered making it, to the point where we are now where it's pretty damn rare and pretty damn expensive.

Yet it took decades for this to happen, and the math says I don't have all that many decades left to worry about it, I'm closer to the end than the beginning.

I have no idea what it's like in the US, in Norway petrol stations are closing down.

Kiwirob wrote:

BMW will sell you an X5M.

Point was that the Mustang is a 2 door "muscle" car, not a 4 door SUV/CUV.

Kiwirob wrote:

If hydrogen is going to be a player then the fueling infrastructure needs to start being rolled out now.

Infrastructure where I live is being ramped up, our Provincial Government is investing heavily in it. Has a very strong potential over EV in regards to the trucking industry.

Kiwirob wrote:

I have no idea what it's like in the US, in Norway petrol stations are closing down.

Where I live in BC, 2 new ones are being developed and construction will begin shortly.