Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
ACDC8 wrote:
I don't disagree that we need to change the way we power our vehicles, and we would have to eventually, but to worship EVs like the Second Coming of Christ is just fanatical and I just don't get the fanboyism behind it and that's when you start to see such resistance towards EVs. Its not the cars or the technology that people dislike, its the smugness behind it all - its no different than a vegan telling you about their plant based diet or a religious person witnesses to you about your salvation, it simply turns people against you.
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Planeflyer wrote:Horse and bugggies which had been around for hundreds of years were eliminated in the us and Western Europe in a matter of 20 years.
Ice cars will be dead in China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Europe and the USA in the same time frame.
frmrCapCadet wrote:I don't think it will require laws to complete the transition to EVs. Good guesses have 10% of car sales is typically the tipping point. We are close. Tesla is still the only mass producer, my guess is 2025 and ICEs will plummet.
Planeflyer wrote:I read the article and could not find the 50 year transition time you cited.
Pi7472000 wrote:Let's hope we see more bans on future gasoline stations like we are starting to see. We need to ban any new development of fossil fuel cars and gas stations. We should transition to EVs quickly and then also promote limited ownership of EVs and instead fund green public transportation. We can limit ownership to one car to family unit. These policies will help mitigate human caused climate change.
Hopefully this town will require existing fossil fuel stations to convert to electric vehicle stations soon on top of banning any future gas stations.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/03/ ... is-us-city
JJJ wrote:The global 10% has been reached thanks to a massive subsidy/tax scheme.
Look at the US, a laggard when it comes to subsidies so ended 2022 with just 5,6%, up to 7% in Feb thanks to, you guessed it, a new subsidy scheme.
https://insideevs.com/news/653395/evs-m ... -by-tesla/
Cost parity just isn't there, even in times of very high gas prices. Then there's the convenience factor which is hard to put in numbers.
Developing countries, with few subsidies and poor infrastructure have basically zero EV market share.
frmrCapCadet wrote:Tesla is still the only mass producer, my guess is 2025 and ICEs will plummet.
M564038 wrote:frmrCapCadet wrote:Tesla is still the only mass producer, my guess is 2025 and ICEs will plummet.
2025 sounds about right. Tesla might be the only mass producer in that particular street in California. But they are really, really really not the only mass producer of EVs.
M564038 wrote:frmrCapCadet wrote:Tesla is still the only mass producer, my guess is 2025 and ICEs will plummet.
2025 sounds about right.
QF7 wrote:M564038 wrote:frmrCapCadet wrote:Tesla is still the only mass producer, my guess is 2025 and ICEs will plummet.
2025 sounds about right.
Sorry, but 2025 is less than two years away. Maybe it’ll happen in a few isolated communities or use-cases but there are simply too many obstacles to overcome for it to happen that quickly on a widespread basis.
Local content requirements to qualify for subsidies alone will delay it more than two years.
Even if sufficient interested buyers existed the multiple months waiting periods at car dealerships (i.e., supply chain issues) would prevent a substantial increase in EV market share over that period of time.
Not to be a party-pooper but practical realities are what they are.
QF7 wrote:M564038 wrote:frmrCapCadet wrote:Tesla is still the only mass producer, my guess is 2025 and ICEs will plummet.
2025 sounds about right.
Sorry, but 2025 is less than two years away. Maybe it’ll happen in a few isolated communities or use-cases but there are simply too many obstacles to overcome for it to happen that quickly on a widespread basis.
Local content requirements to qualify for subsidies alone will delay it more than two years.
Even if sufficient interested buyers existed the multiple months waiting periods at car dealerships (i.e., supply chain issues) would prevent a substantial increase in EV market share over that period of time.
Not to be a party-pooper but practical realities are what they are.
frmrCapCadet wrote:I meant to say that Tesla was the only mass producer in the US of EVs. Even for them the limitation is mostly battery supply chain. By the time the 2026s models come out in late 2025 there will be a lot more options, supply will be meeting demand. Ford's Lightning and Mustang will be available at list price. GM will bring up the rear. Most of the EU car makers will have EV production going on in North America. Companies that do not have a good foot in the EV market in 2926 will be facing disaster.
M564038 wrote:We are beyond the «isolated communities and use-cases» already with several countries having passed 50%. Norway still in the lead with around 80-90%.
QF7 wrote:M564038 wrote:We are beyond the «isolated communities and use-cases» already with several countries having passed 50%. Norway still in the lead with around 80-90%.
Norway is a wonderful country and I have liked the Norwegians I have known.
But Norway is less than 3.3% the size of the United States and roughly 300 million fewer people live there (and presumably there are roughly a similarly fewer number of vehicles).
Planeflyer wrote:Ok I re read the article and see it says it took 50 years for ice to replace the horse on farms, public transport and commercial delivery however there are no citations.
In any case the entire conversation has focused on autos and ice autos replaced horses in in 20 years. Moreover the transition curves between Bev replacing ice and ice replacements ng autos is very similar.
I am looking at this from an investor perspective and good investors like athletes see where the ball is going not where it is.
I’d recommend putting some of your investment funds into Tesla. The risks are much lower than any other automaker and the rewards much higher.
Why?
Tesla is making money on BEV where most others are not. Just today the Chinese begged for government intervention to regulate prices in light of Tesla’s cuts.
Tesla with their casting technology ( which all other makers downplayed…… until recently)described how they would further reduce caped and cycle time. An advance not seen since 1913 when Ford introduced tge moving assembly line.
It is worth noting that Austin is already achieving 42 second cycle time whereas the best anyone else can do is 60 seconds.
Imagine the cash flow and market share implications when Tesla moves to 20 second cycles.
At the current share price fsd, energy and robotics are all free of charge
JJJ wrote:QF7 wrote:M564038 wrote:We are beyond the «isolated communities and use-cases» already with several countries having passed 50%. Norway still in the lead with around 80-90%.
Norway is a wonderful country and I have liked the Norwegians I have known.
But Norway is less than 3.3% the size of the United States and roughly 300 million fewer people live there (and presumably there are roughly a similarly fewer number of vehicles).
That's the wrong angle.
Norway is a sparsely populated country (half the population density of the US) with very complicated geography that makes it very expensive to bring infrastructure.
What they have, though, is very high Government revenue driven by: #1 Oil & gas and #2 Very high personal taxes.
Back in the day when the Model S was released and Norway decided it was time to go all in on EVs the cost of a Model S was on a par with a VW Passat because it was exempt from most of the taxes that weighed on personal cars.
Look at this piece from 2015
https://www.teslarati.com/norway-loves-tesla-model-s/
So the answer to why EV adoption is so high in Norway is simple: it hits people right in the pocket.
M564038 wrote:JJJ wrote:QF7 wrote:Norway is a wonderful country and I have liked the Norwegians I have known.
But Norway is less than 3.3% the size of the United States and roughly 300 million fewer people live there (and presumably there are roughly a similarly fewer number of vehicles).
That's the wrong angle.
Norway is a sparsely populated country (half the population density of the US) with very complicated geography that makes it very expensive to bring infrastructure.
What they have, though, is very high Government revenue driven by: #1 Oil & gas and #2 Very high personal taxes.
Back in the day when the Model S was released and Norway decided it was time to go all in on EVs the cost of a Model S was on a par with a VW Passat because it was exempt from most of the taxes that weighed on personal cars.
Look at this piece from 2015
https://www.teslarati.com/norway-loves-tesla-model-s/
So the answer to why EV adoption is so high in Norway is simple: it hits people right in the pocket.
That angle was inacurate in 2015, and it is even more inacurate now.
A combination of taxation rules and incentives are the main reasons for the high penetration of electric vehicles in Norway. Exemption of purchase tax and VAT provide large financial incentives for potential buyers of electric cars, and as a result, a new Tesla has a price tag about the same as a new Audi or Mercedes. Other benefits include free parking on some public parking spaces, no road toll, free access to ferries connecting national roads and the use of bus lanes.
JJJ wrote:So the answer to why EV adoption is so high in Norway is simple: it hits people right in the pocket.
Planeflyer wrote:Ok I re read the article and see it says it took 50 years for ice to replace the horse on farms, public transport and commercial delivery however there are no citations.
Planeflyer wrote:In any case the entire conversation has focused on autos and ice autos replaced horses in in 20 years. Moreover the transition curves between Bev replacing ice and ice replacements ng autos is very similar.
Planeflyer wrote:I am looking at this from an investor perspective
Planeflyer wrote:I’d recommend putting some of your investment funds into Tesla.
Planeflyer wrote:Why?
M564038 wrote:I «hate» vegans for all the wrong reasons as much as anyone. While progressive, I realize a certain percentage of the population will always resist seeing too much change in their life time, especially the second half. They just can’t keep up and default to becoming reactionary to keep their sense of security. My mother, herself a progressive, retired from her high up education management job less than 10 years ago, and her language is already out of touch, and she probably be fired for being offensive today. Thats too fast! In reality she was and is the definition of non-offensive, and that sort of change in «sensibillities» should probably take a generation or so.
You could say society has a buildt in speed limit towards change, and that is something one needs to take into account when strategizing politically. Changing social structures and dealing with discrimination for instance, takes centuries. We are barely half way even in the most progressive countries.
And then there’s climate change. It doesn’t follow those rules. Change must happen faster. Even if it carries a cost in the social fabric of society and creates inbalance in the popular opinion. EVs are one of those things that needs to be pushed along a lot faster than it organically would, even of you then (naturally) see more resistance.
ACDC8 wrote:Germany reduces subsidies for new BEVs - BEV sales plummet by almost 83%:
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/e- ... 88b4c27cd8
Planeflyer wrote:ACDC8 since you seem to relish sarcasm you might want to revisit the the title of the thread.
Planeflyer wrote:And not even ice powered commercial vehicles have 50 years.
Planeflyer wrote:Daimler, who I think we can all agree understands ICE trucks said that if Tesla’s semi could achieve 500 they have missed something and would buy a few to understand what they don’t know.
Planeflyer wrote:A perfect example of why legacy producers rarely survive the disruption that’s occurring.
FGITD wrote:
Can’t be too surprised by that. The subsidy is enough of an enticement that if you’re on the fence, it could sway you. But without it…No go.
Alternate headline could be “sales of previously discounted item decrease after price is raised”
JJJ wrote:M564038 wrote:JJJ wrote:
That's the wrong angle.
Norway is a sparsely populated country (half the population density of the US) with very complicated geography that makes it very expensive to bring infrastructure.
What they have, though, is very high Government revenue driven by: #1 Oil & gas and #2 Very high personal taxes.
Back in the day when the Model S was released and Norway decided it was time to go all in on EVs the cost of a Model S was on a par with a VW Passat because it was exempt from most of the taxes that weighed on personal cars.
Look at this piece from 2015
https://www.teslarati.com/norway-loves-tesla-model-s/
So the answer to why EV adoption is so high in Norway is simple: it hits people right in the pocket.
That angle was inacurate in 2015, and it is even more inacurate now.
You might want to tell the World Economic Forum.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/ ... ly%20clean.
Or, well, your own Government.
https://www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/tr ... id2677481/A combination of taxation rules and incentives are the main reasons for the high penetration of electric vehicles in Norway. Exemption of purchase tax and VAT provide large financial incentives for potential buyers of electric cars, and as a result, a new Tesla has a price tag about the same as a new Audi or Mercedes. Other benefits include free parking on some public parking spaces, no road toll, free access to ferries connecting national roads and the use of bus lanes.
M564038 wrote:EVs are still cheaper to own
M564038 wrote:JJJ wrote:M564038 wrote:
That angle was inacurate in 2015, and it is even more inacurate now.
You might want to tell the World Economic Forum.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/ ... ly%20clean.
Or, well, your own Government.
https://www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/tr ... id2677481/A combination of taxation rules and incentives are the main reasons for the high penetration of electric vehicles in Norway. Exemption of purchase tax and VAT provide large financial incentives for potential buyers of electric cars, and as a result, a new Tesla has a price tag about the same as a new Audi or Mercedes. Other benefits include free parking on some public parking spaces, no road toll, free access to ferries connecting national roads and the use of bus lanes.
Yes. EVs was totally exempt from most taxation back when they were called Mitsubishi i-miev, e-golf, leaf etc.
That was a genious strategy to let EVs gain foothold.
Most of the waived taxes was was applied for pollution in the first, so thus it was waived for zero-tailpipe vehicles. Duh..
These days I pay 100% road tax, I pay more for parking, toll roads etc. than the normal rate was back when fossils was defined as normal. I can not freely use bus lanes. VAT is applied to EVs above $55,000.
The incentives is gone but proliferation is still there.
It was a good strategy to get going, but is not the main cause of people preferring EVs as of 2023.
EVs are still cheaper to own and maintain, though, but that’s just the nature of the beast.
JJJ wrote:You can paint it any colour you want, but without massive government intervention EVs would still be at single digit % adoption.
JJJ wrote:Some incentives are gone, the big one which is taxing ICE disproportionately is still there.
JJJ wrote:M564038 wrote:JJJ wrote:
You might want to tell the World Economic Forum.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/ ... ly%20clean.
Or, well, your own Government.
https://www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/tr ... id2677481/
Yes. EVs was totally exempt from most taxation back when they were called Mitsubishi i-miev, e-golf, leaf etc.
That was a genious strategy to let EVs gain foothold.
Most of the waived taxes was was applied for pollution in the first, so thus it was waived for zero-tailpipe vehicles. Duh..
These days I pay 100% road tax, I pay more for parking, toll roads etc. than the normal rate was back when fossils was defined as normal. I can not freely use bus lanes. VAT is applied to EVs above $55,000.
The incentives is gone but proliferation is still there.
It was a good strategy to get going, but is not the main cause of people preferring EVs as of 2023.
EVs are still cheaper to own and maintain, though, but that’s just the nature of the beast.
Some incentives are gone, the big one which is taxing ICE disproportionately is still there.
And the even bigger one: outright banning ICE cars is just around the corner. You can paint it any colour you want, but without massive government intervention EVs would still be at single digit % adoption.
M564038 wrote:JJJ wrote:M564038 wrote:
Yes. EVs was totally exempt from most taxation back when they were called Mitsubishi i-miev, e-golf, leaf etc.
That was a genious strategy to let EVs gain foothold.
Most of the waived taxes was was applied for pollution in the first, so thus it was waived for zero-tailpipe vehicles. Duh..
These days I pay 100% road tax, I pay more for parking, toll roads etc. than the normal rate was back when fossils was defined as normal. I can not freely use bus lanes. VAT is applied to EVs above $55,000.
The incentives is gone but proliferation is still there.
It was a good strategy to get going, but is not the main cause of people preferring EVs as of 2023.
EVs are still cheaper to own and maintain, though, but that’s just the nature of the beast.
Some incentives are gone, the big one which is taxing ICE disproportionately is still there.
And the even bigger one: outright banning ICE cars is just around the corner. You can paint it any colour you want, but without massive government intervention EVs would still be at single digit % adoption.
If ICE cars were taxed to the extent reasonable for the damage they make, EVs would have taken over 70 years ago.
ACDC8 wrote:JJJ wrote:You can paint it any colour you want, but without massive government intervention EVs would still be at single digit % adoption.
Yup
frmrCapCadet wrote:Fossil fuel is still receiving lucrative subsidies.
Planeflyer wrote:Agree and the subsidies for evs are corrosive but I suppose unavoidable because otherwise Tesla and the Chinese would own the entire automotive market in 5-10 years time.
Planeflyer wrote:Tesla, more than any other company is harmed by subsidies. I agree that subsidies are amplifying growth in EV’s but it is also certain that w/o subsidies Tesla would still grow and have a much larger market share.
ACDC8 wrote:Germany reduces subsidies for new BEVs - BEV sales plummet by almost 83%:
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/e- ... 88b4c27cd8
Planeflyer wrote:Nonsense! The people who bought Tesla’s up through 2017 had the motivation and income to buy wo subsidies.
JJJ wrote:Planeflyer wrote:Nonsense! The people who bought Tesla’s up through 2017 had the motivation and income to buy wo subsidies.
That's an extremely selective view of things. Read a few posts back on the history of EVs in Norway. At several points Norway sales were over 10% of total Tesla sales. Without those incentives sales would have been a fraction.
China has always been a major market for Tesla and what has driven EV sales in China? Major cities puttiong a parallel wait line for EVs to skip the years-long wait list for a ICE vehicle plate.
How much has Tesla made in CARB credits, emission credits in Europe? Even gaming the subsidies with the whole battery swap swindle.
https://dailykanban.com/2015/06/23/tesl ... o-nowhere/
Just because you don't see it on the sticker price it doesn't mean there are no subsidies.
JonesNL wrote:JJJ wrote:Planeflyer wrote:Nonsense! The people who bought Tesla’s up through 2017 had the motivation and income to buy wo subsidies.
That's an extremely selective view of things. Read a few posts back on the history of EVs in Norway. At several points Norway sales were over 10% of total Tesla sales. Without those incentives sales would have been a fraction.
China has always been a major market for Tesla and what has driven EV sales in China? Major cities puttiong a parallel wait line for EVs to skip the years-long wait list for a ICE vehicle plate.
How much has Tesla made in CARB credits, emission credits in Europe? Even gaming the subsidies with the whole battery swap swindle.
https://dailykanban.com/2015/06/23/tesl ... o-nowhere/
Just because you don't see it on the sticker price it doesn't mean there are no subsidies.
Indeed, Tesla would be much smaller without al those subsidies. Even now with massive subsidies everywhere they have demand problems...