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keesje
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Posts: 14315
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Sabena, The Day After ...

Thu Dec 20, 2001 11:53 pm

Were do we think "(New) Sabena / Dat (+)" will stand in say 2004/5 ?

When the colonial grandpa's pulling the strings today have retired, probably realism will take over. How will the landscape look ?

Anybody help those guys ! Radical solutions preferred !






"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Guest

RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Thu Dec 20, 2001 11:57 pm

They will be long gone by then, replaced by EuroMega Airlines.

The days when each country needs (or merits) its own flag carrier have long gone as well - and the sooner the politicians wake up to that fact, the better!  Big thumbs up
 
Hoffa
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RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Fri Dec 21, 2001 12:05 am

The sad part about this is that in the emotional rush to save some of the 13,000 jobs lost when SN folded, an additional 6,000 people (DAT employees) will no doubt join them in the dole queue.

It still baffles me that a country of twelve million people cannot establish and operate a viable regional airline with service to all important European destinations with a minimum of fuss.

Take into account the exponential growth low-fare airlines which were hurting the big boys like BA even in the best of times, and the future is bleak to say the least. Say what you will about Ryanair, but every last one of their flights go out full.
 
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keesje
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Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Fri Dec 21, 2001 2:11 am

Agreed Hoffa,

all my sympathy for Sabena/Dat employees ; Have warm & happy Christmas Holidays ! & don't log on to this site ...

Some times however it is better to have a ""cold restart" then the kind of process going on right now.
Young / skilled people streaming out first, new dissapointments every week, bad admosphere among collegeas etc.

I'm interested what would be the best Long Term solution ...
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
LJ
Posts: 5463
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Fri Dec 21, 2001 2:18 am

Taken over at a very low price.

Regards
Laurens
 
Bicoastal
Posts: 2446
Joined: Wed Oct 06, 1999 5:56 am

RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Fri Dec 21, 2001 2:30 am

Note that Sabena is the first of others in Europe that will fail or be forced to merge. Without state subsidies, they'll either be competitive and profitable or go under. Alitalia, Iberia and others. European airline labor unions had better see the handwriting on the wall and learn to give up a little, increase productivity and reduce costs to save the jobs of most (but not all) of their members.

We'll be seeing some labor strife in the coming years. Bring back Maggie Thatcher!
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airDD
Posts: 367
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2001 3:06 am

RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Fri Dec 21, 2001 2:31 am

Those who thought the collapse of SR & SN would start the consolidation of the European Airlines are sadly mistaken.

Nationalistic emotions will keep Flag Carrier flying, no one cares if they are profitable or not.

As longs as Belgium exists it will have its flag Carrier
 
LJ
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Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Fri Dec 21, 2001 2:39 am

AirDD we still have the EU Commission who can force the demise of DAT (and after January 1st it will be a little bit easier to do that) or make sure that DDAT is bought by other investors. However, I'm beginning to think that the politicians in Brussles are backing down on liberalisation of the (airline) industry. A bad sign!

Maybe Olympic will be the first flag carrier to go bust anyway.

Regards
Laurens
 
GOT
Posts: 1843
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2000 6:44 am

RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Fri Dec 21, 2001 2:46 am

In between five to ten years most of Europes flag carriers will be gone, LH, BA and AF will still live on. However, all the countries agree that there must be a reduced number of airlines in Europe, but none of the countries want to lose their flag carrier. Will be interesting to see who's next to go.

GOT
Just like birdwatching - without having to be so damned quiet!
 
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keesje
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RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Fri Dec 21, 2001 2:49 am

Lj, as long as French diplomats have their residence in Brussels I think state subsidy will be there.

They have a long history of putting billions into Air France and at the same time accusing the rest of Europe of unfair competition ...

Legal battles have been going on for years "Brussels" is not in a hurry ...

Is it "The French Way" ?

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Guest

RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Fri Dec 21, 2001 2:54 am

Well, for the countries that don't want to lose their "flag carriers" in the coming years, they'd better get their act together with:

-fleet rationalization
-reduced costs/overhead
-reign in labor costs and labor strife
-profitable routes
-getting off the "state tit" and privitizing operations

 
Guest

RE: Sabena, The Day After ...

Fri Dec 21, 2001 3:04 am

AirDD wrote: "Nationalistic emotions will keep Flag Carrier flying, no one cares if they are profitable or not."

Emotions aren't enough, and people will care whether its profitable or not.

Airlines are dependent on a constant cash flow for their survival. If that cash flow doesn't come from sales, then it will most likely come from government aid.

But, who decides on that aid? Politicians!

Politicians are inherently opportunistic. They have no other choice if they want to rise to the upper ranks of the profession. They'll provide the aid only to the extent that it is in their self-interest.

If the political cost of providing aid exceeds the political cost of keeping a flag carrier running, then it's going to be the flag carrier that will be sacrificed. In some countries, that might be the case, depending on how the local political winds are blowing. Here in Canada, there are those who can make a serious argument that the one and only flag carrier, Air Canada, should be sold to foreign interests or allowed to go into bankruptcy rather than be kept on government aid for a prolongued period of time. And they're not necessarily isolated voices out in the wilderness, either.

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