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Flying-Tiger
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How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 3:37 am

The topic says it. What do you think will replace the B737-300 and the -500 fleet which is currently about 70 frames strong? My guess is that we will see additional A319s to replace the -300s, a small number of A318s for long but very thin routes and a number of 928-100/200s. Any comments?

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
nfx
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 3:55 am

lh won't retire thir 737s until 2007 - perhaps they will even keep them longer...

but of course the solution to replace them by a mix of 318s and FD 728 or 928s is possible...

interesting would be if the FDs will fly for LH or for CityLine...
 
racko
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 4:22 am

The FDs ordered at the moment are for the Cityline. But i could imagine LH getting the 928s  Big grin It would be great, imho the 728 Series will be the best looking Narrowbodies  Smile At least from what i've seen so far.
But i'm sure they will stay with the A320 Series - They will not buy 737NGs.

The 737s are very unpopular, actually LH passengers hate it  Big grin. So i could imagine LH replacing them earlier, IF there is a economy upturn in the near future.
 
nfx
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 4:26 am

well I do like them (especially the -500) but of course the 737NG is probably not the best solution to replace them as they are not the most modern aircraft in that market (well, the A320 is also 20 years old)...

does anybody know if the 728 replace some of the avros or even the Crj700s?
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 5:15 am

My understanding is that the 728 will replace the 18 Avro RJ85s and at a later stage the 29 CRJ700s in service/on order/on option. That would mean about half the firm 728-100 on firm order would be for replacement, the other +30 for expansation/ replacement of CRJ100/200.

Although this is only a guess I strongly believe that most if not all Avro RJ85 will go to Eurowings, maybe even some CRJ700. This would actually make some sense:

- Lufthansa City Line can standarize on two types, the CRJ100/200 and the 728, at a later stage maybe even on only one should FD decide to go forward with the 528-100.
- Eurowings get a suitable replacement for the BAe 146-200/300 (ARJ85) and for some ATR72-200/500 (CRJ700), keeping the Avros and the CRJs "in-house", keeping the existing training and maintenance facilities for the BAe146s and the CRJ200.

How the 928-100/200 fits into this picture? I think the 928s (f they get them) will be operated by LHCL as LH will make the concession to the mainline pilots to introduce the A318. Just some food for thoughts.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
nfx
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 10:43 am

yip...sounds good...but perhaps LH will get some 717 to replace their 737s  Wink/being sarcastic

*hiding*
 
godbless
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 11:02 am

I don't know if Lufthansa really likes the A319 so much to replace the 733...
They once had 20 A319's in service and 46 733's and now they have only 14 A319's so instead of pulling the (older) 733's out of service they decided to park the A319... So I guess the A319 is just too much airplane for their needs. So I guess the A318 has no chance at all.
If you consider that LH wants both Airbus and Boeings in their fleet I could imagine them getting the 736 and 73G to replace them.
But they would be stupid if they start replacing them before 2005 or so because they are just too young yet to leave the fleet.
But the 928 seems to be a good option too...
I would think it's cool if they would have both the 737NG and the A320 in their fleet but I guess we just have to wait and see.

Regards,
Max
http://www.IntAviation.de.vu
 
717fan
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 11:42 am

LH is a longtime Boeing customer. I don't think that they will change the fleet to all Airbus except the 744.
For the big airlines it could be important to have products from both (Airbus and Boeing) in its fleet.
717fan
 
vfw614
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 9:09 pm

Max,

you are a bit oversimplyfying here. Of the 46 or so aircraft that were parked after Sep 11 are approx. 20 Boeing 737-300s. So if your theory was correct, LH would have parked the whole A319 fleet instead of the 737-300s. The fact that they have parked so many 737s might be a good hint to the contrary of your theory of Lufthansa preferring the 737 family over the A320 family. The reason why Lufthansa leased out some A319s was - officially - a shortage of qualified crews (a somewhat awkward explanation if you ask me, given the number of A320/321s they have).


Flying-Tiger

could you elaborate on the CLH order for 29 CanRJ700 ? I was only aware of 20 being ordered.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 9:16 pm

Sure I can:
10 CRJ700 original order + 10 options
10 options converted = 20 firm orders + 0 options
10 options taken = 20 firm orders + 10 options
1 CRJ700 cancelled = 19 firm orders + 10 options

Note: the cancelled CRJ700 s according to Bombardier´s regional aircraft publication "Regional World", they state "Lufthansa has taken the x aircraft of an order of 19 CRJ700s". LHCL´s site still states 20 firm and 10 options.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
Andreas
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 9:26 pm

I had the questionable pleasure to fly a 737 recently on TXL-FRA on a Sunday night, and now I know why people don't like it: Seating totally cramped pressure control during the flight incredibly bad (headaches and earaches), but somehow I don't think it's the 737's mistake, rather that of LH. Anyway the public sentiment in Germany is in favour of Airbus, as market research indicates.
But let's not forget, that LH was involved in the development of the 737 (Launch customer?), so it's an old love between both, and currently there is no need to replace 737, (just maybe a little refit  Pissed  Pissed )
Regards
Andreas
I know it's only VfB but I like it!
 
nfx
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 9:28 pm

i really doubt that LH will get any next generation 737s.
right now the 737 is a bit out of date. imagine what it will be in 2007...
the 737 is based upon an idea that is 35 years old - wing and aerodynamic may not be best.
i don`t doubt that it`s probabaly the most reliable a/c around but boeing (and airbus) should think about a successor which is competitve against the Emb 190 and the FD 928
 
vfw614
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 9:38 pm

An interesting point was recently made in another thread: With all the European low-cost airlines like Ryanair, Go!, Virgin Express, Easyjet operating the 737 in ever increasing numbers, the Airbus A320 family would be a good opportunity for the European full-fare carriers to differentiate their product from the Ryanair's of this world as the cabin offers more comfort and it is visibly (hmm, does that word exist  Confused ) something different: I am still undecied if the argument is convincing as most people have little idea what aircraft they are on when boarding via an airbridge, but maybe I am bit too pessimistic. I know of course in the US they all fly Boeing 737s, but it is of course a different thing there to buy more than just a few Airbus than in Europe.

Flying-Tiger
Was the 1 CRJ700 cancelled before Sep 11 ? If so, might be an indication that they will not firm up the options and instead are waiting for the FD728 - which they might do anyway with the recent downturn in business.
 
johnnybgoode
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 10:01 pm

well, i highly doubt that Lufthansa itself will go for the Do 928/1128.
it would make no sense having CityLine operate the 728s and LH the bigger aircraft.
it may be possible that the slope clause which denies CLH pilots to fly aircraft carrying more than 80 pax might be changed so that CLH may fly bigger planes, perhaps the 928 (about 90 pax), but the LH pilots will never like the idea, which would mean outsourcing more flights and routes to its subsidiaries. so i´d be really surprised if there will ever be any major changes to that.
perhaps there will be the Do 928 in LH´s fleet in a couple of years, but i´m pretty convinced it´s not gonna be operated by mainline LH.
but unfortunately, i do not understand the point about LH making concessions to its pilots by introducing the A318? it´s the same size as the 735 so it´s actually just a different aircraft and since there are so many A320s in LH´s fleet, that shouldn´t be such a big thing for the pilots?

i really don´t know what aircraft LH would be looking for to replace its 735s. and although it is naive and so highly unlikely, i have always been wishing for LH to introduce the 717 which is the same as the 735, and has excellent economics. sure, the A318 would fit much better into the fleet, but as i understand the 717 could be operated more viably on LH´s shorthaul network.
if that off-set the costs for an additional type in the fleet, i do not know.

already prior to 9-11, LH had leased out some A319s, and i suppose that is what our fellow board member Godbless was referring to (triggering a misunderstanding between Godbless and Vfw?).
although it seems strange that LH would rather lease out some newer A319s than the older 737s which trigger the impression that LH is unhappy with its A319s, there´s another important point. you´ll most probably make more money leasing out new A319s then 10 year old 737s.
but additionally, it is indeed true that last summer LH lacked quite a few pilots on its A340 and on its A320/319/321 fleet so LH could not operate all of its aircraft, many were parked.
for most of the summer, there was at least one A340 and a couple of A320s/319s which were temporarily grounded due to a lack of cockpit crews. and that may very well be the case why LH leased out some aircraft.

rgds
daniel
If only pure sweetness was offered, why's this bitter taste left in my mouth.
 
vfw614
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 10:13 pm

already prior to 9-11, LH had leased out some A319s, and i suppose that is what our fellow board member Godbless was referring to (triggering a misunderstanding between Godbless and Vfw?).
although it seems strange that LH would rather lease out some newer A319s than the older 737s which trigger the impression that LH is unhappy with its A319s,


No misunderstanding. My point was that if LH was unhappy with the A319 and had begun to lease out A319s before Sep 11, it would have been more than logical to take the remaining A319s out of the fleet after Sep 11 instead of withdrawing 20 or so similar-sized B737-300s. That they did not should be a clear hint at LH preferring the A319 and indeed simply had problems crewing them. As LH has another 150 seat aircraft in the fleet, it was quite logical to put potential A319 crews on the A340s instead of grounding longhaul planes - in a way Airbus had to pay the price for offering cross-qualification....
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 10:49 pm

Vfw614, I´m not sure about this one. There was recently a rumour about a swedish newcomer called Speedair (based in Gothenburg) and initial rumours pointed to a lease of one of LH´s CRJ700s. I think there is the remote chance that they won´t LEASE one but have instead BOUGHT one from LHCL. As far as I know there are close to zero free slots on the CRJ700 line and the only way to get a delivery position is to convince another airline to give one of theirs up. But this is pure speculation.

LH+A318: We all know that this buddy is actually too heavy to be used economically on short-haul services (same applies to the B737-600 and - to a minor degree - to the B717-200). My point is: LH sources out the 100-seat short-haul operations to CityLine but to keep pilots happy and to open new markets a smaller number A318s will be introduced. This plus a couple of additional A319/320s should be sufficient to avoid labour issues. I think some common sense thinking will solve this problems. And please don´t forget: most B737-300s LH operates are already around 10-12 years old, the B737-500 nears 10 years. The 928-100/200 will only enter service in roughly 3 years, at this time the -500s are close to replacement age, the -300s anyway. Daniel, do you understand my point now?

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
godbless
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 1:33 am

Vfw614,

Lufthansa did not ground 20 737's after 11/9/01.
I think that it only was 4 or 5 plus the 737QC (some are with Channel Express now).
Could you give me a source that they DID ground 20 of them? Maybe I am wrong about that.

I once read an interview with an Lufthansa-guy (I think it was in the Lufthansa Flightcrew info magazine) and there he said that the average age that planes leave the Lufthansa fleet is 16 years of full service. The 733 is about 12 years old (average) and the 735 is 11 years (average) so give them at least another 5, 6 or 7 years if you consider that planes that the airline isn't happy with leave the fleet earlier so if you consider that the total average age climbs up to maybe 17 or 18 years.

Max
http://www.IntAviation.de.vu
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 3:47 am

Vfw614 is right, this is the exact break-down (source orders group):

Lufthansa published a new fleet sheet (Passage and City Line)in their latest issue of their monthly Lufthansa Magazin. Without giving any explanation, the table as of Dec 2001 shows a strong shift compared to their annual report of 2000 (as of Dec 2000):

12/2001 12/2000 Comment
747-400 28 + 5
747-200 - - 8
all 747 31

A340-300 26 ?
A340-200 5 - 1
all A340 30

A300-600 9 13 - 4
A310-300 4 5 - 1
A321-100 20
A321-200 6
all A321 26

A320-200 33 36 - 3
A319-100 15 20 - 5

737-500 25 - 5
737-300 25 -20
all 737 76

Avro RJ85 18 18
CRJ 700 6 + 6
CRJ 100/200 43 + 2
all CRJs 41

25 B737-300 and -500 vs 8 A319/320. One A32X for 3 B737.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
Hoffa
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 3:54 am

More Airbuuuuuuuuuuuuuus of course. If it isn't made at XFW, the discerning German customer won't even spit on it.
 
vfw614
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 4:02 am

thanks flying-tiger Big grin

You could even argue that of the 5 A319, two were already leased out to Air Malta before Sep 11.
 
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yyz717
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 4:07 am

The discerning German customer is interested in value, not German made aircraft. If Boeing can provide the best aircraft, that is what LH should purchase....otherwise it will lose customers.

I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
racko
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 8:36 am

yes, LH CEO Weber is only interested in making $$ MONEY $$, and not in supporting the german economy... if the german plane is better, he'll buy the german plane. If the US plane is better, he'll buy the US plane. Germans are not as patriotic as Americans are...
 
Areopagus
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 10:11 am

Nfx: right now the 737 is a bit out of date. imagine what it will be in 2007... the 737 is based upon an idea that is 35 years old - wing and aerodynamic may not be best.

Nfx, I'm surprised at you. Don't you know that the 737 uses the basic fuselage structure of the 707? How could you possibly miss a chance to put down the 737 as being a 44-year old concept?

Of course, by the same token, the A340-600 is based on an idea that is 30 years old. By your reasoning, it must have lousy aerodynamics, right?

Maybe you didn't realize that the 737NG has an all-new wing design from the mid-90s.
 
nfx
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 1:53 pm

well, I'm not putting down the 737. I always liked it very much when i flew it (esp. on my js-flights) but just take a brief look at the capability of cargo transport...
while the 737s (the 757s too) are unable to transport containers in their bellies, the airbusses (A300, A310, A320) are.

this is just one example and a major advantage for airbus

however this is not a "whatisbetterboeingorairbus"-debate, so let's stop it.
 
Hoffa
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 1:59 pm

yes, LH CEO Weber is only interested in making $$ MONEY $$, and not in supporting the german economy... if the german plane is better, he'll buy the german plane

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAAH!!!! Yeah right!
 
Fleet Service
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 2:59 pm

Correction, the A320 does NOT accept containers,it is a freeloaded aircraft.
Yes, I actually *do* work for an airline,how about you?
 
Flying-Tiger
Topic Author
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 3:40 pm

Wrong, Lufthansa uses containers for its A32X. One of the few carrier doing so.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://flyto/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
Hoffa
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 3:54 pm

There are very few airlines who actually containerize their cargo on the A32X family...mostly because you would not want to interline those tiny little things onto a larger aircraft and something like an LD3 is too big for the A32X. Giving the airlines that kind of flexibility is a good idea though.
 
godbless
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 6:37 pm

Vfw614,

I just got an email from a guy working at Lufthansa in the office in FRA. He told me that the number of 20 737's is not correct.

To the containers:
Lufthansa does use them on the A320 and A321 but not on the A319.

Max
http://www.IntAviation.de.vu
 
Fleet Service
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RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 7:33 pm

Containers on an A320? Good Lord. Insane
Yes, I actually *do* work for an airline,how about you?
 
vfw614
Posts: 3852
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

RE: How Will LH Replace Its B733/735?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 7:41 pm

Max

Well,, what does he say then is the correct break-down ? Unless he does not provide hard data, I am led to believe that 20 + 5 (-300 + -500) is the correct number as it was released by Lufthansa in their own in-house magazine.

If you count the recently published numbers carefully,they amount to exactly the number Lufthansa has always given - 43 aircraft withdrawn after Sep 11:

4 B747-200
1 A340-200
4 A300-600
1 A310-300
20 B737-300
5 B 737-500
3 A 320-200
5 A319-100

43 aircraft in total

-> the other 4 747-200s were earmarked for withdrawal before Sep 11.

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