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vfw614
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Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 9:53 pm

I just found out to my surprise that the only airline that has ordered the CanRJ900 is Mesa with 20 aircraft. Brit Air has cancelled its order, and the rest of the not-too-impressive orderbook are leasing companies - 10 by GECAS and 20 by Deutsche Structured Finance (or are theirs only MOUs?). Have any of those 30 been placed with airlines (not that I knew) or are there airlines which are close to striking a deal for CRJ900s ? If not, it may well be that the CanRJ900 was just a stretch too much for the basic Challenger fuselage in times of FD928s and ERJ190s.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Sun Jan 27, 2002 10:37 pm

To answer the topic: to date: YES. Mesa has 20 firm orders and some options on the CR900 (~20) and GECAS has 10 firm orders on it, that´s all. To my best knowledge the DSF MoU hasn´t been converted into a firm order, don´t even know if it still exists. From GECAS´order none have been placed to date.

As far as I know there are currently no CRJ900 deals in the pipeline, haven´t heard anything. Brit Air was forced by mother AF to cancel the LoI, Tyrolean did not convert theirs into firm orders, neither did Air Nostrum.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
desertjets
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 4:58 am

I think that Canadair is waiting for orders to materialize from large CRJ operaters like Comair... which because of the sticky scope clause issue will probably not be forthcoming.

In the meantime airlines that can buy 70-100 seat RJs are buying the Embraer and Fai-Dor jets like hotcakes. Which are probably superior products from many standpoints, plus they look like big jets.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
 
houstondallas
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 7:14 am

The 900 was a bit of a mistake for Bombardier. They should have built the BRJ instead. Similiar to the Embraer and Farchild jets, but would have been first to market. Not to mention they could have had a model range from 90-120 seats. They would have sold a ton of them by now. I'm sure a few people got demoted to floor sweeper for that decision. I wonder what they are planning next??? Small supersonic transport for the business types?
 
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yyz717
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 7:24 am

Give it time. Cert and service entry will garner some attention.

I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
Greg
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 7:38 am

Neither the 728 or 170 are moving 'like hotcakes'. Although both have impressive launch partners, they so far have only attracted large orders from GECAS.

I suspect this will change in the next 12 months.
 
TechRep
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 8:18 am

Trust me the Do728 is selling like hotcakes, 300 orders is nothing to sneeze at. There are many orders that aren't finalized as of yet and you will hear about soon. Be patient the plane hasn't even had first flight yet. The 70 seater market will be a boom but most of the boom will be in Europe due to the Scope Clause.

TechRep
 
Mark_D.
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 8:52 am

A few quick notes here, it didn't take Bombardier all that much development money, to come out with the -900. It's really a very straightforward derivative of the -700 which actually is a much more notable variant itself from the original CRJ airframe, than the -900 is relative to the -700. (Read some of the press clippings, even Bombardier RJ quarterly pdfs if you like, and see some of the remarks that tend to bear this out). The BRJ-"X" --with a whole new airframe design, a whole projectnew project from scratch just like the E170 or F/D 728-- and would have been a huge capital-intensive and strategic, corporate, engineering and marketing decision all across the board. So, really tough to compare the two. It's even a bit tough to compare the bigger CRJs with the 170, and even more so the 728 which is going to feel more like a 717/DC-9 in the cabin, than anything like a traditional sort-of-cramped regional and/or commuter aircraft.

It is worthwhile to ask what Bombardier intends to do with its airliner business, say, 5 or so years down the line when likely just about all its RJs will have already been shipped. But that's another story, a planning issue and not related to the current market climate and sales concerns for bigger CRJs.

So in the meantime, the bigger CRJs just sell on their strengths--namely being first to market, and as well, offering "fleet" prospects for existing CRJ operators, especially the bigger --yet still regional-- ones like Mesa and Horizon who don't have scope clauses to juggle around so decisions to get even -90 seaters aren't impacted by any of that like they still are so much with the mainline carriers. I don't even think Bombardier is counting on anywhere near the sales numbers for the -900 than for the -7s, not even over the product's lifetime of the next several years.


Me I'm more concerned about the fate of the E170 whose only advantage that I can see over the F/D 728 might be price, just as with their ERJs. I think the 728 really might to be an aircraft of choice --and so a series based on it more of a likelihood-- when it comes out, and Embraer might be left a bit high and dry after its initial round of orders are all filled. Still very soon in the game to speculate about all this though  Smile Especially with neither aircraft even taking to the air yet.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:03 am

Good pt Mark.....derivatives are cheap to develop & need fewer sales to cover devt costs.

I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 4:02 pm

Just as a sidenote:the first flight of the Embraer 170 has been delayed due to technical reasons as far as I know, they seem to have problems with their FBW system. First flight was originally planned for late december.

The tripple-streched CRJ900 has one major advantage: its development costs were low (as already mentioned) and thus it can be sold at a lower price. Big disadvantage is the narrow cabin and the "tube effect", passengers don´t likeing to have the impression to sit in a tube.

I think sales will always be slow for this version, it is only attractive for airline who already operate CRJs, especially the CRJ700, somewhat prooven that Mesa is the only airline customer to date. Initial LoIs came from Bit Air (CRJ100/200/700 operator), Tyrolean Airlines (CRJ200) and Air Nostrum (CRJ200) but have all been cancelled.

But as I don´t have an all-saying crystal ball here I might be prooven wrong one day...

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
vfw614
Topic Author
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 7:55 pm

derivatives are cheap to develop & need fewer sales to cover devt costs

Nobody doubts that - but come on, 20 firm orders by a single airline, options not taken up/orders cancelled by longtime CanRJ operators like Tyrolean, Brit Air and Air Nostrum, GECAs has not placed a single aircraft of the 10 it has ordered. No derivative can be that cheap to develop. And I don't see that many orders coming in the future. Lufthansa was forced to order some CanRJ700s they never wanted because of the delays in the FD728 programme. Lufthansa always said that even the -700 is too much of a stretch, creating a tube-effect quality carriers do not accept comfort-wise. I like the CanRJ-family but Bombardier clearly has kicked itself out of the regio-jet market of the future. And if FD launches the FD528, it will be the perfect replacement for then 15+ year old first generation CanRJ100/200s now operated by mainline carriers such as Lufthansa, Air France, Delta/Comair, ASA, Atlantic Coast usw.
 
Greg
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:06 pm

Hey Tech...
Other than Lufthansa...and GECAS..and four from CSA..who else has purchased?

Also...thanks for the updates..they are great.
Any more?

Interestingly...the improvement from the -900 are going to be applied to the -700 (source is Flight Int'l and Flug Revue). I thought the -900 was a simple stretch...what improvements are they talking about?
I would think the improvements from the -700 would go into the -200..
 
flyinryan99
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Tue Jan 29, 2002 2:13 am

On another side note, they are doing test flights for the CRJ 900 because it was in TOL on Friday 1/25 doing touch and goes. I didn't actually see it on the ground, but I did see it flying around on my way into work. It looked like a very nice looking bird!

Ry
 
TechRep
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728 Orders

Tue Jan 29, 2002 2:29 am

We have been told to keep the orders hush hush from the public and press till they are finalized. My job is worth more than giving some inside information but I welcome question's about the project. We are firmly under the belief, this 728 family, will lift FD to new hieghts. Remember we have been building many Airbus components since the 1980's. We have more experience than many realize with making large aircraft.

Currently there are 280, 728's on order but the aircraft has yet to fly, be patient. Build it and they will come as they always say.

Techrep
 
Hoffa
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Tue Jan 29, 2002 2:35 am

I wonder how Airbus feels given that one of its main suppliers may soon start to cannibalize orders from the lower end of its A32X line (particularly if the 1128 sees the light of day).

Where will the 728 be produced? Oberpahoffen? (?sp)

 
Greg
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Tue Jan 29, 2002 5:33 am

Well, I will assume one is the KLM deal that was mentioned previouly for 30 airframes..which is a nice sale  Smile
Assume more will be announced at roll out and first flight.

TechRep...are you going to send out the 1/28 Product Update #10. These are great.

 
airplay
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Tue Jan 29, 2002 6:03 am

Gee...I didn't realize so many of you on this forum had your finger on the pulse of the aircraft sales industry...

(Now re-read that first line while imagining me rolling my eyes and saying it with extreme sarcasm)

 
JBC75
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Tue Jan 29, 2002 6:14 am

Actually most of the scope issues won't affect sales of the RJ70. The 90 may or may not be affected. A lot of US scope clauses are on the verge of being tossed out or widely rewritten. I know because I'm right in the middle of it in the Delta family. At any rate, being very familiar with Bombardier products and somewhat familiar with Embraer products, you would have a very difficult time convincing me that Embraer doesn't make a FAR FAR inferior product.
 
Guest

RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Tue Jan 29, 2002 6:26 am

With the CRJ900 now you are getting into the 717 area.
 
duggan
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Wed Jan 30, 2002 8:25 pm

Canadair is experiencing quite a few technical problems with their CRJ700/900 at the moment. Though the development price was not high, I doubt it will be a good operation for them.
The CRJ is a derivative of the CL-600 Challenger, a corporate jet.
Getting into the 70-90 seaters segment with such a small A/C means a lot of commercial restrictions (not enough luggage space, small cabin width...).
On the other hand the aviation industry is very much subject to "first on the market gets the deal" so the CRJ 900 is very likely to do again what Bombardier 70 and 50 seater did : get the deals because no competitor is available at the moment (I've seen this kind of choices done personnally). Moreover, their sale forces are really top of the list.
Embraer ERJ 170 will be a good A/C but not as much as its direct competitor the Dornier 728. It will be a bit cheaper but the support is definetely lower than Fairchild-Dornier's.
Last but not least, provided that Dornier get out of its corporarte problems their aircraft is very likely to be the great winner of the 70 seater competition.
 
crj-900
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Wed Jan 30, 2002 10:39 pm

I love posts like these…. always good for a laugh. Everybody in the forum has apparently worked on the aircraft type. Tech problems? What tech problem are you speaking of Duggan?-You forgot to mention one. There are "quite a few at the moment" aren’t there? Not that the it can’t have any(there must be a few as with any new type). I’m just curious as to what you’ve encountered.

vfw614: A Flop? Just out of curiosity how many minutes does a project have before it is considered a flop?

Garbage national mudslinging like this completely ruins this forum.
Crj-900
 
duggan
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RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Wed Jan 30, 2002 11:09 pm

CRJ-900, I never said I worked on the CRJ; and fyi I am not even a technician. But I read this :


RJ700 & Q400 mods force Horizon to delay F28 retirements
Brendan Sobie, Seattle (11Jan02, 16:15 GMT, 540 words)

Reliability problems with its new Bombardier CRJ700s and Q400s has forced
Horizon Air to push back
the phase out of its Fokker F28 by at least three months.

The Seattle-based regional has now taken delivery of eight CRJ700 regional
jets and 12 Q400
turboprops, many of which arrived behind schedule. But vice president of
marketing and planning Patrick
Zachwieja says the carrier has been forced to return all of the aircraft
for modifications multiple times.

"There are systems that are having reliability problems and we're having to
send them back," Zachwieja
told ATI yesterday following his speech to the Cargo Facts aircraft
symposium in Seattle. "Bombardier
has modification kits to get them more reliable."

Also attending the Cargo Facts conference, American Eagle president Peter
Bowler says his first batch
of CRJ700s will also have to be returned for modifications.

Zachwieja says the
modifications have forced Horizon to take each of the new aircraft out of
service for up to several weeks
at a time and use its F28s more than anticipated. As a result, Horizon has
decided to keep active its 12
owned F28s until at least May. The carrier initially planned to phase out
its last F28 next month and has
been trying to sell the aircraft.

"We can handle it because we can keep the F28s as long as necessary,"
Zachwieja says. "Fortunately
we have our F28s to back us up. That's saving our bacon right now."

But the extra cost Horizon has incurred to operate the F28, which burns
about twice as much fuel
compared with the new aircraft, is now part of penalty negotiations between
Horizon and Bombardier.
Zachwieja says these talks, which also address Bombardier's failure to
deliver the aircraft on time, are
ongoing "every day".

Zachwieja says Horizon's ninth and tenth CRJ700 will also now arrive late.
He says these two aircraft
were supposed to be delivered late last month but have not yet arrived.

Horizon plans to take this year five more CRJ700s beyond these two, along
with three more Q400s.
These additions will give Horizon 15 aircraft of each type. The deliveries
should all be competed by the
summer and Zachwieja expects all the modifications to be completed by the
end of the year.

Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
 
TechRep
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Joined: Sun Jan 13, 2002 6:53 am

Oberphaffenhofen

Wed Jan 30, 2002 11:11 pm


Yes, the 728 family will be manufactured in OP as we like to call it. They are building two new production facilities, as you know we have risk partners and many of the sub-components are shipped in. I estimate, we will be able to produce the 728 about three times faster than the 328, to meet the current demand.

It's interesting to note, we have more initial orders for the 728, than 10 years of orders for the 328. The wings for the 328 are still fabricated in San Antonio; no 728 production will go on here.

Sales and Marketing are still in Herndon Virginia and Customer Support in San Antonio. These facilities will still support the projects and we are already sending Technical Representative's to Op for 728 training.

I doubt you will see many 728/928 here in the USA under current scope clause, hopefully that will change. Possibly with airlines that do not have scope in their Pilot contracts, you may see them on the ramp. The Envoy 7 with its radical "shark" winglets will be quite a hit on the corporate side.

TechRep

 
vfw614
Topic Author
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Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Wed Jan 30, 2002 11:13 pm

vfw614: A Flop? Just out of curiosity how many minutes does a project have before it is considered a flop?

A "?" = question-mark indicates a question. That is what this thread is about - a discussion whether it is or not. Your answer is "no", my answer is "yes", simple as that.

Nobody can make me believe that firm orders for 30 aircraft by 2 customers (of which 10 have not found a home so far) can be considered a success even for a low-cost derivative that is in its final stages of certification. Even more embarrassing that the cusotmer that more or less launched the programme have pulled out of the concept by cancelling LoIs or not taking up options - Tyrolean, Air Nostrum Brit Air. The main advantage for the CanRJ900 is its early availability, but if that is the selling point, airlines should by now have ordered it instead of waiting for the FD928 or the ERJ190 - what obviously almost all potential customers do. The reasons seem to be quite obvious and I am not going to repeat them.

You can see my favourite aircraft from my user-name, however, I would never have the idea because I like the plane and the concept to consider it a commerical success. Same with the CanRJ900 - it'll be the end of the road for Bombardier in the airliner business as FD is filling Bomardier's position with the best concept which will be available over the next 15 or so years - not sure if there will be enough breathing space for a third manufacturer in that segment - any news about this virtual American regio-jet family that has been marketed over the last two year (the name does not come to my mind) ?
 
TechRep
Posts: 1877
Joined: Sun Jan 13, 2002 6:53 am

RE: Canadair CRJ900 Orders - A Flop?

Wed Jan 30, 2002 11:37 pm

Air Transport Intelligence news is a very accurate aviation source; we post their views on our intranet at work. I will send out the updates to those that want it. As I mentioned before, gear swings and horizontal tail section are being installed/tested as we speak.

It seems many are as excited as I am about the Do728. I came from the "Heavies" to work for FD and my attraction was the Do728. I have quite an edge over my colleagues who have never worked with Slats, Krueger Flaps, Thrust Reversers, Skydrol, PTU's and other systems not previously offered on small jets. I am basically betting my career this project will work, so let's cross our fingers.

TechRep

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