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SteveXC500
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WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:35 pm

I enjoy reading the rumors of schedule extensions and potential new service, even if they do not come to fruition. Southwest will extend its schedule to March 7, 2017 on 7/7. Since this only covers Jan/Feb, I would not expect to see too much. We could see some of the seasonal, Saturday-only service resume. My home airport of MSP would likely see MSP-FLL again.

Anyone hearing any rumors?
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:58 pm

This is for JAN 2017 right? We could see Caribbean adds. It's a little early for tons of Florida unless this goes through President's Day. The question really is whether WN feels it is under pressure to cut capacity from Wall Street. This is a classic shoulder (sun)/low (everything else) season, so if things are good enough we would see stuff not drop that would normally, but if Wall Street is on them about capacity it would be the time to trim. Hard to say. Cuba definitely is likely to be loaded.
 
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flymco753
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:50 pm

They need to bring DTW nonstops back to MCO. I traveled this route on AirTran for years and was a loyal A+ rewards member and WN ends it? Load factors on Saturday's last winter were also pinching 90%....hmmm lets not bring it back. :roll:
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enilria
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:02 pm

DL does not do well in Florida markets where the Big3 have a lot of service. They hardly even fly to Florida from other carrier hubs, unless WN is really large like in DEN/ATL. Obviously no ORD/IAH/DFW/CLT, but MSP has no daily service to Florida, but used to. EWR-MCO only started a couple of months ago and IAD has seen Florida service come and go, with it coming back again this Winter. Even CLE which isn't even a hub any more does not have daily service to Florida and CAK is down to just ATL.

There is a systemic problem with WN to Florida when it isn't from markets where WN is very strong. I suspect it is bag fee related in terms of the legacies selling a lower price point and WN unable to match. This is also why F9/B6/G4 find good results in Florida. The no bag fee ironically hurts WN in markets where there 's a lot of family traffic. Do you really need separate bags for your 2 or 3 kids going to Disney? With WN you are basically paying for them in a fare premium.
 
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flymco753
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:07 pm

enilria wrote:
DL does not do well in Florida markets where the Big3 have a lot of service. They hardly even fly to Florida from other carrier hubs, unless WN is really large like in DEN/ATL. Obviously no ORD/IAH/DFW/CLT, but MSP has no daily service to Florida, but used to. EWR-MCO only started a couple of months ago and IAD has seen Florida service come and go, with it coming back again this Winter. Even CLE which isn't even a hub any more does not have daily service to Florida and CAK is down to just ATL.

There is a systemic problem with WN to Florida when it isn't from markets where WN is very strong. I suspect it is bag fee related in terms of the legacies selling a lower price point and WN unable to match. This is also why F9/B6/G4 find good results in Florida. The no bag fee ironically hurts WN in markets where there 's a lot of family traffic. Do you really need separate bags for your 2 or 3 kids going to Disney? With WN you are basically paying for them in a fare premium.


The whole thing is spot on, I can see it. We have F9, NK and DL right now flying to DTW and hopefully with no surprise JetBlue will tap the market soon. It's a brawling match between all 3 of them, and if or when JetBlue enters the brawl will get bigger, so I can see where the bags fly free thing comes to play.
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wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:28 pm

I think FNT and GSP might see service getting axed completely.
There also been talk of closing CAK and DAY.
But shifting the flights to Open CVG with 6 flights total 2 MDW,2 BWI and 2 ATL.

International rumors
STL-MBJ
STL-CUN
MDW-SJD Saturday only
MDW-PVR Saturday only
SMF-SJD Saturday only
SMF -PVR Saturday only

With the 737-300 retirement drawl down I would be surprised for any new flying other than seasonal shifts.

Horse trade rumor is WN may trade B6 3 DCA slots for 5 LGB slots.

But this is the new WN so anything could happen.


Flyguy
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:03 pm

enilria wrote:
This is for JAN 2017 right?


Extension is for Jan/Feb - through March 7th, so up to the WN determined Spring Break (I say that because our spring break begins March 4th ;) ).
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:20 pm

They just added two new gates in Nashville. Maybe we could see something new at BNA.
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:46 pm

MSP opens three new gates at Terminal 2, expected in October. Nothing has been officially announced for WN or SY who both use T2. (SY has added already this year utilizing current space).
So I wonder if this new schedule will impact MSP with the new gates, similar to BNA as previously posted.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:22 pm

Well with new Aircraft delivery schedule announced today I see Nothing new on the July 7 release other than seasonal shift in flying!
Other than the LAX- Mexico and Cuba flying flying I see nothing new until November 2018.

Flyguy
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lhpdx
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:26 pm

I'm hoping for PDX to Nashville
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:53 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
I think FNT and GSP might see service getting axed completely.
There also been talk of closing CAK and DAY.

It's talked about, but it seems nebulous. I think if they go it will be in September 2017 when the fleet drops for the classic retirements. But OTOH I see no hurry to cut anything loose.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:55 pm

I can finally book my trip to SJU
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:08 pm

Other than one or two new international flights, I'm looking at this extension in terms of what doesn't get trimmed to the extent it did last year. BWI took a pretty big hit the last two winters and im not sure why it was targeted more than the other non-called hubs.

I wonder if it would make any sense to take advantage of slack in the winter system to divert some connecting traffic to better weather locations. Not massive shifts since O&D is too important but maybe maintaining more capacity to a fair weather location with pertinent connection possibilities and keep the winter weather destinations more focused on O&D.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:14 pm

There also been talk of closing CAK and DAY.
But shifting the flights to Open CVG with 6 flights total 2 MDW,2 BWI and 2 ATL.


Anyone know how PWM is doing? It is very seasonal, but I think it's a contracted station.
 
Vctony
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:03 am

Any chance of international out of PHX?

PHX-Mexico seems like a market worth exploring for WN.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:26 am

LotsaRunway wrote:
There also been talk of closing CAK and DAY.
But shifting the flights to Open CVG with 6 flights total 2 MDW,2 BWI and 2 ATL.


Anyone know how PWM is doing? It is very seasonal, but I think it's a contracted station.


PWM is doing great!
Flyguy
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lavalampluva
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:40 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
MSP opens three new gates at Terminal 2, expected in October. Nothing has been officially announced for WN or SY who both use T2. (SY has added already this year utilizing current space).
So I wonder if this new schedule will impact MSP with the new gates, similar to BNA as previously posted.


Maybe WN will add MSP-DAL. It seems like a perfect fit. I know DL was planning on doing it before all the gate mess happened at Love.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:09 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
I think FNT and GSP might see service getting axed completely.

WN's April load factor plummeted from 74% to 57% YOY, however. That was the first month of the switch to MDW. By route is not available yet. May will be more interesting as only the MDW service operated.

Vctony wrote:
Any chance of international out of PHX?

PHX-Mexico seems like a market worth exploring for WN.

You would think they would consider that, but I'm told it isn't a priority.
 
bdepalo
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:01 pm

I think we will see a reasonable amount of international expansion out of BWI. They will have the D/E connector finished by then which will significantly increase intl throughput. Only issue is that there is no connection from here to the main Southwest terminal.
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:02 pm

bdepalo wrote:
I think we will see a reasonable amount of international expansion out of BWI. They will have the D/E connector finished by then which will significantly increase intl throughput. Only issue is that there is no connection from here to the main Southwest terminal.

I doubt it. I'm hearing that the focus internationally until Amadeus is fully in place, is only to add things where the window is only open temporarily. That means, FLL/Cuba/LAX. Weekends are a whole different deal, so anything can happen in terms of weekend service.
 
ScottB
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:28 pm

bdepalo wrote:
I think we will see a reasonable amount of international expansion out of BWI. They will have the D/E connector finished by then which will significantly increase intl throughput. Only issue is that there is no connection from here to the main Southwest terminal.

The lack of a connector between C & D is only an issue if they stop towing arriving aircraft from E to A/B/C. When arriving from a foreign airport without pre-clearance, one must clear TSA after passing through Customs inspection in any event.

LotsaRunway wrote:
Other than one or two new international flights, I'm looking at this extension in terms of what doesn't get trimmed to the extent it did last year. BWI took a pretty big hit the last two winters and im not sure why it was targeted more than the other non-called hubs.

IMO that's the right way to look at the extension for January/February. Apart from MLK Day and some traffic around Presidents' Day (which is part of a school vacation week in some northern states), January & February are pretty much the weakest months of the year for air travel. The more relevant question is what will be trimmed significantly for this schedule since it's pretty much the lowest part of the low season.

enilria wrote:
There is a systemic problem with WN to Florida when it isn't from markets where WN is very strong. I suspect it is bag fee related in terms of the legacies selling a lower price point and WN unable to match. This is also why F9/B6/G4 find good results in Florida. The no bag fee ironically hurts WN in markets where there 's a lot of family traffic. Do you really need separate bags for your 2 or 3 kids going to Disney? With WN you are basically paying for them in a fare premium.

I suspect you're correct to some degree on the inability to price-match, coupled with the general inability of many Americans to do arithmetic to come up with the total all-in cost. I think brand awareness also plays a big role in their performance since they don't sell through the online travel agencies. In WN's strong markets, leisure travelers will check WN's pricing (either exclusively or against other sources) and are likely aware of WN's complimentary baggage policy. In WN's weak markets, leisure passengers are a lot less likely to even look at WN's pricing and may only shop through the OTAs.
 
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United_fan
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:32 pm

Hoping for ROC-FLL . I would feel better booking WN than AY to FLL .
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Cubsrule
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:44 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
They just added two new gates in Nashville. Maybe we could see something new at BNA.


When will the concrete and jet bridge work on the existing gates be complete so that they actually gain gates?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:48 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
They just added two new gates in Nashville. Maybe we could see something new at BNA.


When will the concrete and jet bridge work on the existing gates be complete so that they actually gain gates?


I'm not sure, but as far as I know, C15, C17, C25, and now C23 are all new. I think they're working on C19 as of today.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:53 pm

I received word from a very reliable source that BNA will be getting BDL and SNA.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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ERJ170
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:07 pm

I'm going to guess no new city for RDU and a couple reductions from 1-3 cites.. Maybe an add to one..

It's been the regular MO....
Aiming High and going far..
 
ANA787
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:10 pm

PDX-BNA?
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:12 am

southwest1675 wrote:
I received word from a very reliable source that BNA will be getting BDL and SNA.


Last extension, there was a rumor about MSP-BNA. Any of that coming back around this time?

How about small stations like DSM? Could they see an end or is WN willing to stick it out long term?
 
msycajun
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:28 am

We've been hoping for MSY - CLE and RDU for years, but not holding our breath since WN has been pretty flat here lately.

I always thought SNA would be a nice add, with plenty of connections to Florida, DC and other points east. But LAX has seen a lot of increases lately with AA, NK starting, but UA cut.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:38 am

southwest1675 wrote:
I received word from a very reliable source that BNA will be getting BDL and SNA.


The only way I could see SNA-BNA being added if they dropped SNA-MCI in it's place.

I've heard BNA rumors from SNA for Almost 10 yrs now.

If they don't drop MCI I can see dropping SEA from SNA to add BNA.

That's my 2 cents!

Flyguy
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:42 pm

I was talking to my very reliable source last night and I'm not counting on anything yet, but this extension is supposedly gonna have a huge expansion out of Nashville. Word is, BNA will be getting SNA, BDL, PDX, MSP, and MKE. We shall see. At the Tennessee One unveiling party back in Feb, Gary Kelly did express plans to expand out of BNA. Also, BNA is getting all new gates. They've picked up 15, 17, and I think they're getting 24. He also said don't be surprised if GSP, DAY, FNT, and CAK get cut.
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usflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:47 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
I was talking to my very reliable source last night and I'm not counting on anything yet, but this extension is supposedly gonna have a huge expansion out of Nashville. Word is, BNA will be getting SNA, BDL, PDX, MSP, and MKE. We shall see. At the Tennessee One unveiling party back in Feb, Gary Kelly did express plans to expand out of BNA. Also, BNA is getting all new gates. They've picked up 15, 17, and I think they're getting 24.


Does wnflyguy have a second screen name now? ;) :lol:
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:49 pm

No it's not me this time!
Flyguy
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:51 pm

Well, my go to guy for this stuff hasn't let me down yet!
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
flyoregon
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:28 pm

"Word is, BNA will be getting SNA, BDL, PDX, MSP, and MKE."

If this is true, that would be awesome!

I get the BNA is turning into a reliever "hub" for WN, and it's more than O&D, but it seems AS is really missing the boat on a lot of these routes...BWI, HOU (even through AS goes through IAH), ABQ (even though it's been served a long-time), etc. I'm probably completely wrong in my assumptions here, but WN is slowly creeping in and it doesn't seem like AS really notices at PDX.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:52 pm

Let's hope southwest1675's "go to guy" is right!
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:58 pm

So I reached out to some SNA friends about getting any new flights? They have heard rumors that they are losing 1 daily OAK round trip and one Daily LAS round trip. But gaining 1 daily BNA and 1 daily SLC non stops in their place.

Flyguy
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Mexicana757
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Wed Jun 29, 2016 11:56 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
International rumors

MDW-SJD Saturday only
MDW-PVR Saturday only

Flyguy


Hope those two routes get announced since the rumor seems to come up in almost every schedule extension. With F9 launching those routes out of ORD in October, WN should fight for a piece of the pie.
 
fsafsx
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 3:39 pm

Instead of Southwest adding their seasonal Orlando to Detroit flight they will move it to Flint in my opinion Detroit sucks so switching all their service to Flint is an option.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:00 pm

So talking with a reliable HDQ friend this morning.
Says NO cities are on the Chopping block!
But the Summer 2017 schedule will be under the Altea platform as far as Schedule building is concerned.
The need to fly everything Daily from places like DSM,ECP,PNS,PWM,ROC,FNT,DAY,ICT and GSP are coming to a end.
WN will have a completely NEW schedule next summer including Non DaIly flying and RED EYES!
Expect to watch Seasonal destination have better network connections.
LAS and MCO are expected to see big shifts catering to demand giving most bang for the buck!

As for this schedule don't expect much than normal seasonal shifts with a couple of new Adds.

"It's not Your Herbies Southwest anymore" !

Flyguy
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flymco753
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:23 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
LAS and MCO are expected to see big shifts catering to demand giving most bang for the buck!


I hope this is a sign that we'll be getting Detroit flights back from MCO.
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fsafsx
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:33 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
The need to fly everything Daily from places like DSM,ECP,PNS,PWM,ROC,FNT,DAY,ICT and GSP are coming to a end.


Wait why won't they fly daily to FNT anymore? I sure hope Detroit doesn't get those Orlando nonstop flights from it.
 
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dabpit
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:39 pm

fsafsx wrote:
Wait why won't they fly daily to FNT anymore? I sure hope Detroit doesn't get those Orlando nonstop flights from it.


WN already flies MCO - FNT with one flight a week.
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wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:51 pm

No "I think "FNT as an example can see something like the return of Florida and LAS service.
Like 2 days MCO, 2 days TPA , 2 days FLL and 1 daily Saturday only flight to LAS . 3 flights a day with 2 daily MDW trips and the 3ed flight doing non daily rotations.
On a Saturday doing 2 daily flights with a morning LAS round trip with a afternoon MDW turn or Vice versa.

Now this 100% just my speculation/ arm chair Planner!

Flyguy
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mcg
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 5:36 pm

How does FNT survive? It seems like it's only a couple flights a day and must be the smallest WN station. I actually like to to use FNT, but the WN flights never work for me from a timing standpoint.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 5:38 pm

Interesting info on the non-daily flying option in the schedule building. I suppose that may also help with the draw down of 733's from the fleet while not replacing one-for-one? Additionally, this schedule release goes through March 7th, so the next one typically goes through early June, I believe. May be yet another release after this one before we see Summer schedules. Looking forward to it.
 
ROCDLFAN
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 5:55 pm

Wait- so is that to imply that ROC will be loosing more service, or will see non daily additions? The station already is down to 5 flights, 7 on a good day.
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enilria
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:13 pm

ScottB wrote:
enilria wrote:
There is a systemic problem with WN to Florida when it isn't from markets where WN is very strong. I suspect it is bag fee related in terms of the legacies selling a lower price point and WN unable to match. This is also why F9/B6/G4 find good results in Florida. The no bag fee ironically hurts WN in markets where there 's a lot of family traffic. Do you really need separate bags for your 2 or 3 kids going to Disney? With WN you are basically paying for them in a fare premium.

I suspect you're correct to some degree on the inability to price-match, coupled with the general inability of many Americans to do arithmetic to come up with the total all-in cost. I think brand awareness also plays a big role in their performance since they don't sell through the online travel agencies. In WN's strong markets, leisure travelers will check WN's pricing (either exclusively or against other sources) and are likely aware of WN's complimentary baggage policy. In WN's weak markets, leisure passengers are a lot less likely to even look at WN's pricing and may only shop through the OTAs.

Agree
southwest1675 wrote:
I received word from a very reliable source that BNA will be getting BDL and SNA.

Wouldn't be that surprising, but the seasonality for those is poor in JAN/FEB.
southwest1675 wrote:
Word is, BNA will be getting SNA, BDL, PDX, MSP, and MKE.

Given that the WN fleet is growing and the proximity between ATL and BNA, I would suggest what is good for BNA is bad for ATL.
wnflyguy wrote:
WN will have a completely NEW schedule next summer including Non DaIly flying
mcg wrote:
They already do non-daily flying as Saturday is basically now like a separate airline. I'd be VERY surprised if they started doing things like MWFSu domestic routes . They could always do that in the old system and they used to do some X23 stuff here and there. The issue is more operational. As a non-hub airline it is very hard to run an operation with non-daily intertwined flights as NK and F9 have found out, PLUS WN is VERY operationally conservative. I'd be shocked if they did that on any kind of large scale.

wnflyguy wrote:
No "I think "FNT as an example can see something like the return of Florida and LAS service.

I really doubt it. WN/FL enplanements in FNT were down 38.5% in April and down 51.7% in May. I doubt they would take that as a reason to expand. May 2016 was probably the lowest month ever in enplanements at FNT for FL/WN.
http://www.bishopairport.org/Portals/0/Document/May2016.pdf?ver=2016-06-27-161837-623
 
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:55 pm

I guess if WN decides that they don't want to do nonstop MCO-DTW flights than that just leaves the open door for B6.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...

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