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masseybrown
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jul 01, 2016 3:57 pm

One of these days, WN needs to get serious about DCA. Their Q1/16 loads seriously trail the competition. 69.3% for WN vs 89.1% for F9, 84.7% for NK, and 80.6% for B6. Fill the planes or lease out the slots.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:08 pm

enilria wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Word is, BNA will be getting SNA, BDL, PDX, MSP, and MKE.

Given that the WN fleet is growing and the proximity between ATL and BNA, I would suggest what is good for BNA is bad for ATL.


WN's gate count will also soon grow in BNA, and many of the gates are not very well-utilized. But I'm not sure how much these potential adds harm ATL as much as they show something about priorities; SNA, BDL and PDX lack ATL service today.

masseybrown wrote:
One of these days, WN needs to get serious about DCA. Their Q1/16 loads seriously trail the competition. 69.3% for WN vs 89.1% for F9, 84.7% for NK, and 80.6% for B6. Fill the planes or lease out the slots.


Are the respective DCA operations similar enough that these comparisons are meaningful? DCA is not a large operation for Frontier, and B6 flies nothing to a state that does not touch the Atlantic Ocean.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
masseybrown
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:14 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
masseybrown wrote:
One of these days, WN needs to get serious about DCA. Their Q1/16 loads seriously trail the competition. 69.3% for WN vs 89.1% for F9, 84.7% for NK, and 80.6% for B6. Fill the planes or lease out the slots.


Are the respective DCA operations similar enough that these comparisons are meaningful? DCA is not a large operation for Frontier, and B6 flies nothing to a state that does not touch the Atlantic Ocean.


The legacies' loads are much better than WN's also. My thought is they could make more leasing some smallish number of their slots than by flying planes with below-break even loads, which I believe they said is in the low 80's. Alternatively, they could move some flights to higher volume destinations.
 
usflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:56 pm

masseybrown wrote:
One of these days, WN needs to get serious about DCA. Their Q1/16 loads seriously trail the competition. 69.3% for WN vs 89.1% for F9, 84.7% for NK, and 80.6% for B6. Fill the planes or lease out the slots.



The legacies' loads are much better than WN's also. My thought is they could make more leasing some smallish number of their slots than by flying planes with below-break even loads, which I believe they said is in the low 80's. Alternatively, they could move some flights to higher volume destinations.[/quote]

So simple. The legacies also fly 37, 50, 100 seat aircraft into DCA. Instead of saying WN should lease their slots out, the legacies should be required to fly mainline flights into the airport to better utilize the slots.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
fsafsx
Posts: 226
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Tue Jul 05, 2016 5:08 am

dabpit wrote:
fsafsx wrote:
Wait why won't they fly daily to FNT anymore? I sure hope Detroit doesn't get those Orlando nonstop flights from it.


WN already flies MCO - FNT with one flight a week.


Well this needs to be daily. I don't want DTW to gain this flight.
 
n562wn
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:10 am

masseybrown wrote:
My thought is they could make more leasing some smallish number of their slots than by flying planes with below-break even loads, which I believe they said is in the low 80's. Alternatively, they could move some flights to higher volume destinations.



FWIW, the break even load factor on our releases have said around 60-61% for quite some time now.
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
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SANFan
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:21 am

I agree with those thinking this sked extension won't see much new, mostly just seasonal adjustments.

One thing I'm wondering about is whether WN might react to some of AS's recent moves in the intra-California markets? I believe this is the first new WN sked since AS announced new SAN & SJC routes so might we see WN enhancing the frequencies in a few of those markets?

We'll see what happens tomorrow.

bb
 
usflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:07 am

When is the FLL terminal expansion supposed to be completed?
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
jco613
Posts: 286
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:05 pm

I drive by it often, and they're making great progress...but they are still a long way from completion. I'd say next summer at the earliest
 
jco613
Posts: 286
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:21 pm

Honestly, other than Saturday only EWR-SJU, I cannot find anything new or changed...at least nothing that was on the doomsday list and nothing discussed here.

MSP-FLL seasonal returns as well
 
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knope2001
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:28 pm

I'm not finding anything much new either. At MKE the SEA nonstop is gone, which appears to be a seasonal response to Alaska operating the market now. MKE-MSY is back on the map but I don't find it available for sale so not sure what that's about. Nothing else so far of note new or ended that I've found.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:38 pm

knope2001 wrote:
I'm not finding anything much new either.


Me either. The rumored BNA expansion (which supposedly included MKE-BNA) does not look to have materialized.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
phluser
Posts: 617
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 2:23 pm

ScottB wrote:
IMO that's the right way to look at the extension for January/February. Apart from MLK Day and some traffic around Presidents' Day (which is part of a school vacation week in some northern states), January & February are pretty much the weakest months of the year for air travel.


Atleast on Northeast-Florida traffic where WN competes to some extent with the ULCCs, I've always seen incredibly low fares in October pretty much up to the date of the flight, and not fully filled flights on Frontier and Spirit. I've been on half empty or less flights on WN during this time as well.

ScottB wrote:
In WN's weak markets, leisure passengers are a lot less likely to even look at WN's pricing and may only shop through the OTAs.


enilria wrote:
EWR-MCO only started a couple of months ago and IAD has seen Florida service come and go, with it coming back again this Winter. Even CLE which isn't even a hub any more does not have daily service to Florida and CAK is down to just ATL.


WN still has a significant presence on PHL-Florida, while it's not big in PHL.

Up 80 miles north, I'm surprised WN chose EWR-MCO over EWR-FLL, given that in a year or so, WN will be offering international connections from FLL.

In general, think South Florida demand from the Northeast remains strong in January and February, while Central Florida (MCO) demand might not pick up until end of February and March. It was quite cool many days this last January in Orlando and not the best time of year to schedule a vacation. Plus there is the shorter days, which doesn't work in favor with the theme parks. One pretty much had to go even further south to get warmer weather. I have seen uptick in higher fares during long weekends, e.g. Presidents Day weekend, however.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 2:28 pm

It's obvious at this point that the BNA expansion rumor wasn't fulfilled this release. I'm not even seeing anything new in general.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
usflyguy
Posts: 1757
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:29 am

Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 2:36 pm

DAL-RNO - Saturday-only
EWR-SJU - Saturday-only
DTW-MCO
GRR-TPA
MCO-RIC
FNT-TPA & FNT-RSW - Saturday-only

PDX-ABQ and HOU-SEA are both gone again.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
usflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 2:37 pm

BWI-SJO is back to daily.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
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flymco753
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 2:56 pm

usflyguy wrote:
DTW-MCO


Whoop whoop! Now I have an excuse to use my points left over from A+ to go to Detroit.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
msycajun
Posts: 1130
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:34 pm

Seeing that MKE is on the route map, I checked and a nonstop is listed on Google flights, but not on Southwest.com. Perhaps some markets are on hold since the Havana awards were just announced.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:09 pm

msycajun wrote:
Seeing that MKE is on the route map, I checked and a nonstop is listed on Google flights, but not on Southwest.com. Perhaps some markets are on hold since the Havana awards were just announced.


MKE-where?
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
tomaheath
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:14 pm

do we have the list yet of changes?
 
msycajun
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:17 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
msycajun wrote:
Seeing that MKE is on the route map, I checked and a nonstop is listed on Google flights, but not on Southwest.com. Perhaps some markets are on hold since the Havana awards were just announced.


MKE-where?

Sorry MSY-MKE - slipped the old brain!
 
GLG20
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:22 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
It's obvious at this point that the BNA expansion rumor wasn't fulfilled this release. I'm not even seeing anything new in general.


Maybe this is an ignorant question but with the early retirement of the classics why would there be much new added in a low demand period? Wouldn't that just create more stress on the network once those planes are grounded?
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:28 pm

According to Google Flights, BNA-EWR is back on March 24th.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:37 pm

I also see BNA-OKC on Google Flights
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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SteveXC500
Topic Author
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:38 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
According to Google Flights, BNA-EWR is back on March 24th.


How would Google Flights have that information if the WN schedule only goes through March 7th?
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:39 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
According to Google Flights, BNA-EWR is back on March 24th.


How would Google Flights have that information if the WN schedule only goes through March 7th?


That's what I'd like to know, but Google Flights goes all the way to May 2017
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:42 pm

Also BNA-ORF is back according to Google Flights
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 5:06 pm

BHM is apparently getting some love. They are apparently getting BNA, MSY, JAX, and STL.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14615
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 5:10 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
BHM is apparently getting some love. They are apparently getting BNA, MSY, JAX, and STL.


Google Flights is apparently stuck in 2012 . . .
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 5:15 pm

That'll do it.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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SANFan
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 5:32 pm

In the "not-really-a-big-deal" department, my curiosity from an earlier post has been answered.

WN has increased SAN-SJC to 11 daily r/t, the most they've ever flown in the market; 10 was the previous high. And this of course for the January-March period. I would have to conclude that this is in response to AS's entry into the market last month.

I checked and SJC-SNA didn't change but WN has slots and limitations to deal with there making an increase of even 1 flt/day more difficult to pull off.

Other than that, SAN's schedule is at 99# per day for this extension, 2 more than this last Jan-March schedule.

I'll take it!

bb
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:53 pm

Blog entry from Southwest, including PDF updates:

http://www.blogsouthwest.com/now-book-f ... ch-8-2017/
 
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SANFan
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:55 pm

Just in case anyone's interested, Bill has posted his recap for the sked change here:
http://www.blogsouthwest.com/now-book-f ... ch-8-2017/

FYI, there is a .pdf comparison chart of the changes in all markets. Click on the
"See attached" in the last sentence for the link to the chart.

The EWR-SJU & DAL-RNO adds - both Sat Only - are the mentioned "highlights" of the extension...

bb
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:21 pm

SANFan wrote:
Just in case anyone's interested, Bill has posted his recap for the sked change here:
http://www.blogsouthwest.com/now-book-f ... ch-8-2017/

FYI, there is a .pdf comparison chart of the changes in all markets. Click on the
"See attached" in the last sentence for the link to the chart.

The EWR-SJU & DAL-RNO adds - both Sat Only - are the mentioned "highlights" of the extension...

bb


Just don't forget that WN now has received approval for service to Cuba (FLL-HAV/SNU/VRA and TPA-HAV) and is waiting to hear about LAX-CUN/PVR/SJD. I daresay they may have other international routes up their sleeve too...
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
flyrocoak
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:14 pm

Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:41 pm

ROCDLFAN wrote:
Wait- so is that to imply that ROC will be loosing more service, or will see non daily additions? The station already is down to 5 flights, 7 on a good day.


I would be surprised if they cut ROC service further. Load factors in 2015 were 84.68% and for the first three months of 2016: 91.63%. Still, they cut MDW last year and that was at 80% so you never know.

Since the MDW cut, I couldn't get flights to California which was most of my flying so I've moved on from Southwest. And, driving to BUF just to fly Southwest- not worth it.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 5024
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:45 pm

SANFan wrote:
One thing I'm wondering about is whether WN might react to some of AS's recent moves in the intra-California markets? I believe this is the first new WN sked since AS announced new SAN & SJC routes so might we see WN enhancing the frequencies in a few of those markets?

I think we will see more involving California cities in the next 2 schedules after this one.

Two weeks ago, the Fresno Airport Director told the local newspaper "the company has said it is focusing this year on modernizing its fleet, and in 2017 and 2018 it anticipates evaluating its route network with greater emphasis on markets in California."
http://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article86981757.html

I don't know if that means FAT has a chance to be added. But it does make for interesting speculating about what WN will do in its current California cities over the next two years.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Thu Jul 07, 2016 11:04 pm

Next schedule extension is less than a month away. August 4th and will run through the end of April.
 
Super8
Posts: 1
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Re: WN Schedule Extension July 7, 2016

Sat Jul 09, 2016 4:08 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
Next schedule extension is less than a month away. August 4th and will run through the end of April.

If anything like last year more mid to late Winter adjustments will be included then along with Spring flying. Other cities may be like PVD that gets pinched back right after the holidays with this schedule posting only to have frequencies return later in the Winter with the next update including the RSW and PBI flights that didn't appear until then last time around.

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