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N717TW
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Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:02 am

With the "out" vote on the verge of winning and Britain about to start the process of leaving the EU, what impact will this have on UK airlines?

1. IAG is technically a Spanish company, so I suppose it reduces its holdings in BA down to 49%
2. But EasyJet is a UK airline. They have already indicated they will move to the EU and setup a UK division.
3. How does this impact open-skies with the US, Canada, Morocco, Israel, etc.? Does the UK just one new ones or does it change the terms given that the UK actually had some of the most restrictive rights (TATL wise) leading up to open skies.
4. What happens to Norwegian's LGW base? Are they still allowed to fly transatlantic from LGW?

The UK has two years to exit the EU according to the referendum, so there will be an orderly process, I suppose. That said, it dramatically changes the UK-Europe landscape.
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:09 am

As there is a good chance that Scotland will now go for independence from England & Wales, how about those companies moving to Scotland to make them EU companies? I guess that Scotland and England & Wales will form a "special relationship" that might give those companies better access to the England & Wales market than being HQ'ed on the continent (not that that would help in relation to non-EU countries).
 
finnishway
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:14 am

I doubt there will be big changes in aviation. Norway and Switzerland aren't EU countries, but they kind of act like they are.
 
justarandom
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:25 am

N717TW wrote:
With the "out" vote on the verge of winning and Britain about to start the process of leaving the EU, what impact will this have on UK airlines?

2. But EasyJet is a UK airline. They have already indicated they will move to the EU and setup a UK division.
3. How does this impact open-skies with the US, Canada, Morocco, Israel, etc.? Does the UK just one new ones or does it change the terms given that the UK actually had some of the most restrictive rights (TATL wise) leading up to open skies.
4. What happens to Norwegian's LGW base? Are they still allowed to fly transatlantic from LGW?

as long as the uk joins "open skies " agreement as independent member just like iceland and norway
there will be no chance from current situation on number 2-4
 
hayzel777
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:29 am

Obama has already stated that if the British leave, they will be "in the back of the queue" for any type of deal.
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:30 am

That's because as EEA member states, Norway and Switzerland are de facto EU members, i.e. they have more or less the same duties as an EU member (particularly the fundamental rights that BREXIT has fought) without the same rights when it comes to rule-making. This is exactly what BREXITeers will want to avoid to happen.

One obvious effect is that some financial services will (have to) relocate from London most likely to Frankfurt, so LCY will probably take a hit with a decline of business related travel to the City and the Docklands. The same, to a lesser extent, will also be true for the legal services industry.
Last edited by vfw614 on Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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vhtje
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:30 am

Far too early to tell. Any exit will take two years to take effect; during that time the UK needs to negotiate with the EU on what its future relationship will be with the EU.

The impact on the aviation sector can only be determined once we know what that relationship will be; however you can be assured that the impact on all industry will be considered when negotiating the new agreement. And it goes both ways: EU will want to continue to have strong and unrestricted trade with the UK. For example, BMW's largest market is the UK.
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vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:43 am

The EU will take a tough stance simply to demonstrate other member states that there is a hefty pay to price to leave the EU - and you don't get all the advantages after leaving without the corresponding disadvantages. I doubt that luxury car makers are a main concern in negotiations as car prices are country based anyway (by the way, the UK is far from being the largest market for BMW - it is just 10 per cent of all sales).
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:57 am

Imho, the EU is dead. Germany is next. France probably soon after. By 2020 there will be no EU in the current form. Britan and Germany are/were the anchors for the EU. Without Britan, the EU loses almost a quarter of its economic engine. In terms of the airline industry, there will be very little impact in terms of service and routes.
 
Byrdluvs747
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:57 am

hayzel777 wrote:
Obama has already stated that if the British leave, they will be "in the back of the queue" for any type of deal.


The British told Obama where he can stuff it.
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b747400erf
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:14 am

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Imho, the EU is dead. Germany is next. France probably soon after. By 2020 there will be no EU in the current form. Britan and Germany are/were the anchors for the EU. Without Britan, the EU loses almost a quarter of its economic engine. In terms of the airline industry, there will be very little impact in terms of service and routes.


Germany has benefited more than anyone from the EU and the single currency. France would leave before Germany.
 
spacecadet
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:27 am

Byrdluvs747 wrote:
The British told Obama where he can stuff it.


Doesn't seem a very effective way of getting a deal.
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vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:31 am

The UK was a late starter to the EU and the core member states are Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxemburg and Italy. These joined forces in the 1950s, it took the UK until the mid 1970s to come on board. The impact on the EU should not be overestimated - although the UK was a net payer, it had so many special deals in its favour that quite a few EU politicians don't really mind that this will now come to an end.

The impact for the UK will be far bigger than for the EU. The SNP has already announced that Scotland won't be forced out of the EU by England & Wales, so the first to break up will not be the EU, but the UK. Northern Ireland also will face interesting times as it is either putting up borders with the Republic or getting out of the UK. It will also be interesting to see what will happen to Gibraltar as the Spaniards now have an easy excuse to cause any trouble they want down there. The Brexiteers will have some serious egg in the face sooner than later, I am afraid to say.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:40 am

The Spanish now have an obligation to cause trouble, as they have to protect the external borders of the EU. As the Brexit supporters want to control the entering of persons from the EU to the UK, it is obvious that the EU will have to do the same when it comes from persons from the UK entering the EU.

It is obvious that the Uk will now have a new government as Cameron is a dead duck, which means that the new government will probably represent the Brexit supporters, who will probably escalate the conflict with the EU.
 
masseybrown
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:44 am

hayzel777 wrote:
Obama has already stated that if the British leave, they will be "in the back of the queue" for any type of deal.


Obama will leave (7 months) before the UK does (2 years).
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:46 am

Let's hope they stay realistic. The UK will be an economic midget faced with three economic superpowers: The US, China and the EU. Leverage in free trade negotiations is somewhat limited under such circumstances. Nothing to do with Obama, simply the mathematics of politics.
 
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:09 am

vfw614 wrote:
Let's hope they stay realistic. The UK will be an economic midget faced with three economic superpowers: The US, China and the EU. Leverage in free trade negotiations is somewhat limited under such circumstances. Nothing to do with Obama, simply the mathematics of politics.


Um .. no.

It will be a larger economy than India, Canada, Brazil, Russia and South Korea. Are you writing these nations off too?
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vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:16 am

Is the UK forming a union with India, Canada, Brazil, Russia and South Korea? If no, I don't see your point. There are three economic superpowers in the world , and the UK is not one of them - GDP in millions of US$:

United States 17,947,000
European Union 16,220,370
China 10,982,829
...
United Kingdom 2,849,345 (and make that 10 per cent less without Scotland)
Last edited by vfw614 on Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
yoni
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:39 am

It's quite too early to figure out what will happen and depend largely on how the EU, mainly Germany and France, will react (and also the US). Germany has no interest in being nice during the negotiations as they want to retain their influence within the EU, particularly in Eastern Europe. And the current French government has no interest in being nice as they want to deter French voters from a possible Frexit (same for Italy and Spain).

It's highly likely that there will be no change for the aviation sector, but at what cost for the UK ? The Brexiters might be back to square one with no voice within the EU, but still paying for it to enjoy its perks like Norway, Iceland or Switzerland do.
 
Aither
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:41 am

I think there is a lot of hysteria about this. The UK will just renegociate everything through bilaterals and since the "elites" of the different European countries do no want changes the new bilaterals will not be different than the current agreements.
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:45 am

Northern Ireland also will face interesting times as it is either putting up borders with the Republic or getting out of the UK


Neither is likely to happen. That "border" will almost certainly remain in its current form. The UK/Ireland are free to manage border controls as they deem appropriate notwithstanding EU membership.
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:49 am

The UK will just renegociate everything through bilaterals and since the "elites" of the different European countries do no want changes the new bilaterals will not be different than the current agreements.


You mean that the EU member states are happy to provide all the perks for free to the UK in the future that until today come at a cost?

Neither is likely to happen. That "border" will almost certainly remain in its current form. The UK/Ireland are free to manage border controls as they deem appropriate notwithstanding EU membership.


The Republic has open borders with the EU, and if N.I. retains open borders with the Republic, what about all those pesky immigrants trying to sneak into the UK that were a big part of the Brexit hysteria?
 
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:57 am

Easyjet will obtain an EU AOC as required, even if ownership fiddles have to be arranged to get it done. They already have a Swiss "division" with a Swiss AOC owned in a such a manner. If done before the actual leave date existing ownership may be grandfathered anyway.

Norwegian have an existing UK AOC.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:58 am

vfw614 wrote:
You mean that the EU member states are happy to provide all the perks for free to the UK in the future that until today come at a cost?


Explain how (for example) neither country imposing trade tarriffs on each other is a "perk" please. Industry and consumers (thus the people as both workers and purchasers) in both countries benefit.

Your attitude is reflective of the problem many (not just in the UK but across Europe) have with the eurocrats - the eurocrats believe that they (and only they) should have the power to decide such matters and that national governments should be grateful for the crumbs that drop from their table.

Similar agreements were in place before the EU and I expect they will remain in place after the EU.
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:00 am

EIDL wrote:
Easyjet will obtain an EU AOC as required, even if ownership fiddles have to be arranged to get it done. They already have a Swiss "division" with a Swiss AOC owned in a such a manner.


It is not rock solid. If the Swiss decide to revoke just a single bilateral with the EU - and there are constant demands to that effect -, all the others automatically go as well, including the one relating to a single EU/Swiss aviation market.
 
yoni
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:03 am

Aither wrote:
I think there is a lot of hysteria about this. The UK will just renegociate everything through bilaterals and since the "elites" of the different European countries do no want changes the new bilaterals will not be different than the current agreements.


As you indicated, there will be negotiations. As any negotiations, some will lose, others will win. The question is what the UK is ready to lose to keep its access to the EU market.
 
EIDL
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:04 am

vfw614 wrote:
EIDL wrote:
Easyjet will obtain an EU AOC as required, even if ownership fiddles have to be arranged to get it done. They already have a Swiss "division" with a Swiss AOC owned in a such a manner.


It is not rock solid. If the Swiss decide to revoke just a single bilateral with the EU - and there are constant demands to that effect -, all the others automatically go as well, including the one relating to a single EU/Swiss aviation market.


Thats why I would expect them to get an actual EU member state one - was providing their use of a Swiss one as an example that they already do use more than one AOC to operate the full network. As do Norwegian.
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:08 am

Amiga500 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
You mean that the EU member states are happy to provide all the perks for free to the UK in the future that until today come at a cost?


Explain how (for example) neither country imposing trade tarriffs on each other is a "perk" please. Industry and consumers (thus the people as both workers and purchasers) in both countries benefit.

Similar agreements were in place before the EU and I expect they will remain in place after the EU.


Trade today is far more complicated than slapping a tariff on goods, unlike in the good olden days. Think about tax issues, access to capital markets, establishment of companies, application of laws. Transaction costs will simply be much higher and detrimental to the economy.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:12 am

vfw614 wrote:
Trade today is far more complicated than slapping a tariff on goods, unlike in the good olden days. Think about tax issues, access to capital markets, establishment of companies, application of laws. Transaction costs will simply be much higher and detrimental to the economy.


:lol:

Tax issues, access to markets, paperwork of companies and application of laws all existed in the "good olden days".

Your scaremongering - another feature of the eurocrat.
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:22 am

Well, I can tell you that in my industry contigency plans are in place that will see a massive chunk of business that is currently done in the UK will move out, simply because it requires to be done from inside the EU. With the subsequent loss of jobs, GDP in the UK. And I am talking from the inside and not from reading the Daily Mail and listening to Boris Johnson. Feel free to mark my words.
 
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:26 am

Stocks this morning fall massively:

IAG -27%
Ryanair: -21%
EasyJet: -18%
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:33 am

vfw614 wrote:
Well, I can tell you that in my industry contigency plans are in place that will see a massive chunk of business that is currently done in the UK will move out, simply because it requires to be done from inside the EU.


blah blah blah.

I bet if I asked you to explain why it has to be done inside the EU you'd start blustering.

Oh, but "wink wink, nudge nudge, trust me" - yet another feature of the eurocrat.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:35 am

RedChili wrote:
Thankfully, Obama will soon be gone. He's the only US president that has treated America's best friends with contempt, while giving the red carpet to America's enemies.


The greatnest of Obama's presidency will only be seen in about 10 years time when you've had two clowns in.


While his surveillence agenda leaves much to be desired, his wider foreign policies are very much a step forward for the US (even if they regressed in some areas the overall move is forward).
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:36 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Stocks this morning fall massively:


Stock markets sh!t themselves at the drop of a hat.


When investors realise the world isn't going to stop turning, they'll bounce back up (but not to original levels) in a few days.
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:41 am

hayzel777 wrote:
Obama has already stated that if the British leave, they will be "in the back of the queue" for any type of deal.


It later transpired that the only other deal in the queue was the US - EU deal that has been under discussion for 6 years. This made it a rather empty threat.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:49 am

vfw614 wrote:
As there is a good chance that Scotland will now go for independence from England & Wales, how about those companies moving to Scotland to make them EU companies? I guess that Scotland and England & Wales will form a "special relationship" that might give those companies better access to the England & Wales market than being HQ'ed on the continent (not that that would help in relation to non-EU countries).


First, there would have to be a referendum for Scotland to leave the UK... and assuming they do that they would then have to apply to join the EU - they could not continue the existing UK membership.

This would likely mean adopting Schengen and the euro.. which would cause problems in itself and may impact any decision the Scottish people make.

In any event, nothing is certain around the Scottish position, so it is very unlikely that companies would repatriate to Scotland in the short term, as there are many risks and a long timeframe to any resolution
 
Aither
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:01 am

Amiga500 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Well, I can tell you that in my industry contigency plans are in place that will see a massive chunk of business that is currently done in the UK will move out, simply because it requires to be done from inside the EU.


blah blah blah.

I bet if I asked you to explain why it has to be done inside the EU you'd start blustering.

Oh, but "wink wink, nudge nudge, trust me" - yet another feature of the eurocrat.


I don't know what Amiga is referring to but for sure the EU will want a EU made large jet engine.
Never trust the obvious
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:03 am

It will be interesting for Air Berlin, as a PLC registered in the UK.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:32 am

Aither wrote:
I don't know what Amiga is referring to but for sure the EU will want a EU made large jet engine.


The A300 in the 1960s included much input from (and work done in) the UK at a time when the UK was outside of the EEC.

Note also, the same A300 was only available with American jet engines.

Try again. :roll:
 
A35J
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:33 am

I suppose the decision to leave the EU solves LHR's runway problem.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:33 am

A35J wrote:
I suppose the decision to leave the EU solves LHR's runway problem.


*snigger*

very good, very good :lol:
 
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winterlight
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:47 am

N717TW wrote:
They have already indicated they will move to the EU and setup a UK division.


Without the shitty EU flag on the fuselage.
Question everything. Trust no-one.
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:52 am

A35J wrote:
I suppose the decision to leave the EU solves LHR's runway problem.


It will take away even more pressure from LCY - as the airport is serving The City and Canary Wharf.

IAG's Willie Walsh has already issued what amounts to a profit warning, by the way.
 
PanHAM
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:08 am

You guys think that you can eat the cake and Keep it. At least that's what Boris and Nigel told you. They will be proven dead wrong in no time. Britain will leave the single market, as simple as that. That goes for aviation, Merchandise and Services. The single market simply meant that B2B could invoice without VAT by mentioning both VAT ID numbers on the invoice. B2C was a simplyfied procedure as well whoch did not Need inspection by customs.

Now, regardless of air or surface, border clearance will be set up again. Even if there won't be any duty, there will be VAT raised at the borders in Dover or at LHR which means that every shipment has to be declared. A time consuming and cost intensive matter whoch Needs additional documenation. You guys can kiss e-Business good bye, orering a small item in any other EU Country will be ruled out, same the other way.

As to the Airlines, same Thing. In the single market you can bring in anything without having to declare. That will be history, mates.

The continent will be "over seas" again, your Prices will go up, a charter flight to Magaluf won't be as cheap as it was and carriers like Mponarch, Thomson etc will feel the pinch PDQ because you will have less Money to spend. A good Thing, the DHL sorting centre at EMA might Need more employees for customs clearance work. But that may be compensated by less traffic to be handled.

Brexit will prove to be the most stupid Thing that politics did in the 21st century. These Clowns I mentioned above took you for a ride and the Katzenjammer will be as large as a hangover after binge drinking.,
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:29 am

PanHAM wrote:
Brexit will prove to be the most stupid Thing that politics did in the 21st century. These Clowns I mentioned above took you for a ride and the Katzenjammer will be as large as a hangover after binge drinking.,


I think you are right, the EU is not perfect, but we've had a good time, and the future is not clear for us.

Please remember however that 48% of us voted to remain. and those 48% still think of you as good guys, and 100% of us want to retain close ties and trade with the EU.

The EU too will I am sure want to remain trade with the 65 million inhabitants of the UK or EU business will also suffer.

Our relationship will be different, but we must all strive to make it work.

EU/UK Open skies sill surely form part of this... lots of negotiation ahead....
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:31 am

PanHAM wrote:
Britain will leave the single market, as simple as that.


Because you say so...

Oh right.

Google EFTA.

-------------------------------------------------------------

What I expect to happen is something along these lines:
- further "unrest" (too strong a word, but unhappy not strong enough) in other countries over the current structure of the EU and where it is headed.
- the remaining EU-politicans to eventually respond to this by looking at fundamental restructuring of the EU. Otherwise there is a real danger of the whole thing splintering.
- A two tier system to develop, one limited to markets the other to a higher level of integration. Possibly even 3 tier with the currency.
- All countries in the EEA (including UK) to be on one of these tiers.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:34 am

Richard28 wrote:
Please remember however that 48% of us voted to remain. and those 48% still think of you as good guys, and 100% of us want to retain close ties and trade with the EU.


I think many in the leave camp would want continued cooperation and trade with the EU.

They probably however want to feel a sense of real self-determination. They also are probably very disillusioned with the eurocrats continued ignoring of the feelings of large swathes of the populace.

I'd say there are also many in the remain camp would say the above too - but were too concerned with potential economic strife to vote out.

Obviously the above is just my gut feelings on what the majority are thinking. Could well be very wrong.


[I didn't vote, would *probably* have voted out - with the view of remaining in the EEA or forcing real EU reform with a later referendum on staying or going.]
 
mozart
Posts: 2154
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 12:21 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:41 am

And what does EFTA tell you? Four countries that have access to large parts of the EU single market in exchange for paying large sums of money into the EU pot, for taking EU legislation into national law - but isn't that what people did NOT want? All of that without a seat at the table where things are decided.

It is far too early to tell what the impact on individual industries will be. But to those that clamour scaremongering and the like, several tens of billions of market cap has been destroyed just this morning. That is a fact already. Think about that when soon you'll be standing in the passport lane behind Nigerians, Afghans and Cambodians.

We were used to English hooligans laying to waste entire city centres (and in the past they didn't need Russian provocation for that), with damages in a couple of millions. But several tens of billions destroyed, wow, well done.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8957
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:44 am

There seem to be some misunderstandings here.

Norway and Iceland are part of the European aviation market through their membership in the EEA. The EEA includes the EU, Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein. Lichtenstein has no aviation. The EUhas an open sky agreement with the USA that includes Norway and Iceland.

Switzerland has bilaterals with the EU, Iceland and Norway, both regarding aviation and other things. Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Lichtenstein are the remaining members of the EFTA free trade agreement, that has a free trade agreement with the EU.
As Switzerland did not join the EEA, immigration control was one of the big issues, they had long difficult talks with the EU over approximately ten years to come to the current status.

The UK exits now the EU, that is by definition a 2 years process, but that is just the exit. Than the UK will have to find its place in regards to the European blocks.
IMO the biggest misconception is the UK retaining all the perks while getting its own on everything else.
It could join EFTA, with the associated free trade agreement with the EU, but that is only a trade agreement. The UK left EFTA when joining the EU.
It could join the EEA with broad association to the European market including aviation, but that would open the borders for inner European immigration again.
The UK could follow the way of Switzerland, but that was a long, time consuming process covering about 10 years.
The UK will have to negotiate aviation bilaterals with both the EU and the USA and having best done this before the 2 years are up.
 
TYCOON
Posts: 477
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2007 8:20 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:49 am

The weakness of the arguments to "no change in civil aviation" is that while new bilaterals between the UK and EU will ultimately be put in place, I doubt the EU will allow for cabotage: allowing a UK-based carrier like Easyjet to fly from Paris - Madrid or Lyon - Lisbon... What is the percentage of U2's flights that would fall outside of UK (or England/Wales should Scotland leave)? I do not believe Swiss-based airlines are allowed to have cabotage flights within the EU (but I could be wrong). I believe part of the reason U2 has aircraft registered in Switzerland is to perform flights from Switzerland to other non-UK EU cities. Changes will happen in civil aviation in Europe as a result of the Brexit... but this won't happen tomorrow.
Regarding the UK as an "economic power" you should perhaps measure again where it stands taking into account the 10%+ drop of the Sterling.... that's 10%+ of the countries GDP that evaporated on comparative charts that are invariably measured in USD... I am sure the UK has slipped.
A sad day indeed... but the EU will remain in place without the UK, but it is rather the UK or Great Britain that is falling apart and little England is born today. A minor background player on a global stage.

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