Amiga500
Posts: 2472
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:35 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
He is right and you are wrong. Google "EU Passport Financial Services" and you'll see this is no empty threat. The UK will lose lots of presence from Financial Services Firms that will have to open offices on the mainland to do business there now. That will cause UK ops to be downsized. It is real and it is happening.


The passport is active within the EEA, not just the EU.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2472
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:41 pm

speedbored wrote:
It's really quite comical how polarised this discussion is becoming.


One half of it is polarised. The half that is insisting that Armageddon is about to befall the UK. It is ironic that many of that half are claiming intellectural supremacy in the midst of demonstrating anything but.

There will be a reasonable conclusion to all this; there are too many people with too many interests in that for it not to happen.

So, the UK will be in the EEA, or some bastardised form of it and there will be some form of common market for goods and labour.


Ironically, on an economic level, ideally I would want to remain within the EU, but with substantial reforms to the political structures of the EU and a contraction of the size of both the bureaucracy associated with the EU and the number of laws imposed by the EU on member states. That is something that more than a few within continental Europe seem to want as well.

Unfortunately, I don't see an avenue to achieve that reform without a shock to the EU system. Again, I didn't vote, if I did, I would *probably* have voted Brexit - with the hope of calls for reform spreading across the continent, leading to a real reform and eventually to a second referendum on whether to stay or go.

I'm annoyed Cameron has quit, although understand his reasoning. Gove is a Tory-boy c**t. May is an evil, evil, evil w***h. Boris is an idiot. If it had to be one of those 3, it would have to be Boris. But by god thats a bad choice to have.

Farage is beneath contempt and is one step away from being an open racist. If there is an absolute silver lining to all this - hopefully this removes the need for their political existence so then that snake and the racist xenophobic UKIP in general crawl away under the rock they've slithered from and never darken us with their presence again.
 
User avatar
GCT64
Posts: 1763
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:34 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:51 pm

IAG statement:

"INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP, S.A. (IAG) believes that the vote to leave the European Union will not have a long term material impact on its business. In the short term, however, in the run up to the UK referendum during June, IAG experienced a weaker than expected trading environment. Following the outcome of the referendum, and given current market volatility, while IAG continues to expect a significant increase in operating profit this year, it no longer expects to generate an absolute operating profit increase similar to 2015."
Flown in: A20N,A21N,A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A359,A388,BA11,BU31,(..56 more types..),VC10,WESX
 
tonystan
Posts: 1671
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 7:39 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:04 pm

Richard28 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
As there is a good chance that Scotland will now go for independence from England & Wales, how about those companies moving to Scotland to make them EU companies? I guess that Scotland and England & Wales will form a "special relationship" that might give those companies better access to the England & Wales market than being HQ'ed on the continent (not that that would help in relation to non-EU countries).


First, there would have to be a referendum for Scotland to leave the UK... and assuming they do that they would then have to apply to join the EU - they could not continue the existing UK membership.

This would likely mean adopting Schengen and the euro.. which would cause problems in itself and may impact any decision the Scottish people make.

In any event, nothing is certain around the Scottish position, so it is very unlikely that companies would repatriate to Scotland in the short term, as there are many risks and a long timeframe to any resolution


Scotland would not necessarily adopt Schengen boarders as Ireland has not.
My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
 
Mexicana757
Posts: 2671
Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2001 3:21 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:08 pm

Maybe Easyjet or Flybe can go buy the VLM AOC. :twisted: ;)
 
aaexecplat
Posts: 507
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2009 2:49 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:12 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
He is right and you are wrong. Google "EU Passport Financial Services" and you'll see this is no empty threat. The UK will lose lots of presence from Financial Services Firms that will have to open offices on the mainland to do business there now. That will cause UK ops to be downsized. It is real and it is happening.


The passport is active within the EEA, not just the EU.


You'really not paying attention...why would the EU allow the UK to reengage in a way that would allow the UK to keep vast and lucrative banking resources when those same resources could be folded into the EU proper. Simply not going to happen.

The EU will change laws on its end after Brexit to benefit its own members and discourage further defections. And the UK will not have a seat at that table.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3261
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:21 pm

Paul Krugman in today's NYT offers a balanced observation is what has happened and what is likely to happen. Here is what he sees as the crux of the problem, and why Brexit or no-Brexit two major problems that face the EU:

" ... The big mistakes were the adoption of the euro without careful thought about how a single currency would work without a unified government; the disastrous framing of the euro crisis as a morality play brought on by irresponsible southerners; the establishment of free labor mobility among culturally diverse countries with very different income levels, without careful thought about how that would work. Brexit is mainly a symptom of those problems, ..."

Incidentally conservative Nobel winning economist Milton Friedman predicted the disaster of common currency without a unified government. And while most of us oppose radical anti-immigration the EU's and GB's inability to think it out has and is leading to disaster.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2586
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:23 pm

it is still better than any non-democratic alternative.

...but the whole point of Brexit is that there is a democratic alternative...an even more democratic and representative alternative even.

vfw614 wrote:
The sad thing is that the outcome is mainly due to a gerontocracy fed by irresponsible politicians. It really alienates the young population who have voted 75 per cent in favour of remain - and they are the ones who have 60, 70 years ahead of them, unlike the 60+ Brexit supporters.

Oh please, gerontocracy? Really? 50% of those young, educated cool people apparently couldn't be bothered to even come out and vote...so half of them either didn't care if the UK left the EU, or were indifferent to either scenario. Spare us the dramatics
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2272
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:24 pm

Basically the same doom and gloom we heard in Norway before the EU referendum in 1994. "You won't be able to sell a single fish to the EU!". It all turned out to be bullsh*t. The only negative impact the "Norway model" has is that we're not sitting at the table when major decisions are made that very much apply to ourselves. Other than that, we're doing great outside the EU. And so is Switzerland and Iceland.

Of course the EU and US leadership warned before the referendum. Yesterday Obama said "You'll be standing at the back of the queue". Today, after the referendum, he said something along the lines of "The special relationship between the US and the UK will continue as before". It wouldn't surprise me if it got even stronger.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3801
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:29 pm

The EU will change laws on its end after Brexit to benefit its own members and discourage further defections. And the UK will not have a seat at that table.

Plus all those Financial Authorities set up under the new set of regulations will not be based in London. People in Frankfurt are already getting depressed about the outlook for the housing market because of all those new neighbors who will be arriving with rather deep pockets.

The only negative impact the "Norway model" has is that we're not sitting at the table when major decisions are made that very much apply to ourselves.


Indeed. You have to abide by 11.500 EU legal acts (and counting) in which you had not any say and that were simply dumped on you. You must follow all EU rules, guarantee all fundamental rights, have no access to important EU subsidies - and must pay billions of dollars each year for the privilege of having to act like EU member, but not being one. Sounds like a better deal for the EU in my book.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8934
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:42 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
speedbored wrote:
It's really quite comical how polarised this discussion is becoming.


One half of it is polarised. The half that is insisting that Armageddon is about to befall the UK. It is ironic that many of that half are claiming intellectural supremacy in the midst of demonstrating anything but.

There will be a reasonable conclusion to all this; there are too many people with too many interests in that for it not to happen.

So, the UK will be in the EEA, or some bastardised form of it and there will be some form of common market for goods and labour.


Not Armageddon, but there is a substantial gap between the expectations of the Brexit supporters and the realistically possible compromises that could be found with the EU. There is simply no way that the EU would sign an agreement that gives the German manager full freedom in the UK and denies it to the Polish painter, simply by the fact that all EU member states would have to agree on it.
And if you want to be part of the EU market you will have to follow most of the stupid rules coming from the EU, just now without any option to stop them.
I personally can agree with the idea that freedom is worth the economic consequences and that the protection of your national identity is of utmost importance. I salute the Brits for having the balls to show national pride, but the EU will be as incompetent and as dogmatic as it has always been, so the best way to go forward is to encourage other countries to leave as well and go for bilateral agreements. I am sure Italy, the Netherlands and France would be willing to follow you into freedom, if the people would be asked. Hell Germany would too.
 
User avatar
N717TW
Topic Author
Posts: 544
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:24 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:17 pm

justarandom wrote:
as long as the uk joins "open skies " agreement as independent member just like iceland and norway
there will be no chance from current situation on number 2-4


But the open skies airlines allows you to freely fly to and from the member country but not within. So Easyjet would lose any domestic rights it has as an EU carrier.
 
User avatar
N717TW
Topic Author
Posts: 544
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:24 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:29 pm

uta999 wrote:
It is conceivable that a decision on Heathrow could now be taken more quickly, given that the EU environmental impact study is less important now than it was yesterday. David Cameron could decide to get things moving by selecting the extended northern runway option, which affects far less people locally.

It would also be a good time to take a politically unpopular decision, by burying bad news (the third runway go-ahead), while Brexit is still fresh.


or Boris Island!
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 17795
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:44 pm

seahawk wrote:
It is obvious that the Uk will now have a new government as Cameron is a dead duck, which means that the new government will probably represent the Brexit supporters, who will probably escalate the conflict with the EU.


No, we won't have a new Government, just a new Prime Minister.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
LJ
Posts: 4883
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:17 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
So, the UK will be in the EEA, or some bastardised form of it and there will be some form of common market for goods and labour.


The only difference between the EEA and the EU is a) you almost no influence on the regulation which you must apply in law (as that's detemenied by the EU), b) only a few aspects of EU policy don't apply like common foreign policy and defence and c) you don't have to pay so much, but in return also don't get anything in return. Otherwise EEA is the same as EU membership and all EU trade, environmental, fianncial, immigration and multiple other laws are applicable to you (and even Schengen may be a requirement to qualify). Given this is exactly what most Brexit voters didn't want, I don't see them joing EEA unless they want a worse deal than they had whem in the EU.
 
User avatar
IslandRob
Posts: 623
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:04 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:20 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
He is right and you are wrong. Google "EU Passport Financial Services" and you'll see this is no empty threat. The UK will lose lots of presence from Financial Services Firms that will have to open offices on the mainland to do business there now. That will cause UK ops to be downsized. It is real and it is happening.


The passport is active within the EEA, not just the EU.


You'really not paying attention...why would the EU allow the UK to reengage in a way that would allow the UK to keep vast and lucrative banking resources when those same resources could be folded into the EU proper. Simply not going to happen.

The EU will change laws on its end after Brexit to benefit its own members and discourage further defections. And the UK will not have a seat at that table.

You speak of the EU as though it were a solid, unified, like-minded block of EU-forever nations. This is not the case, and I predict there will be further defections. The specter of Eurocrats bullying the UK to make an example of it could prove counterproductive and, in fact, stoke the anti-EU flames in other countries. -ir
If you wrote me off, I'd understand it
'Cause I've been on some other planet
So come pick me up, I've landed
 
vfw614
Posts: 3801
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:41 pm

You are really clutching at straws.

It is simply a policy imperative to take a stance to avoid a domino effect, and all the office holders I have heard today and all the internal papers that have been quoted are exactly hinting in that direction. What many Brits fail to understand is that the EU members are mightily annoyed that after four decades of special deals and rebates at the expense of all other member states the UK still has voted to leave. Now that the cast is die, the EU would love to get rid off the UK as quickly as possible and various high ranking officials have already rebutted BoJo's and Dave's chill approach. The mood is: If you vote for out, get the hell outta here asap. And that's how it will work. The Feb 18/19, 2016 special deal with the UK is already off the table, the leading EU foreign ministers will meet tomorrow, the prime ministers on monday and the Council on Tuesday/Wednesday. To follow the textbook rules, there will be a short meeting of all 28 member states, i.e. with David Cameron, but he will be asked out fairly quickly as the rest will begin consultations about the exit negotiations with the UK (and probably how Scotland can be accommodated). An interesting point is how the issue of the UK's scheduled EU presidency in the second half of 2017 will be dealt with.

I can only recommend to listen to interviews not with UK politicians, but with politicians from other EU member states as these are more insightful. A term commonly used is that the UK will be a "third country" and that there will some sort of co-operation, but the time of cherry-picking has come to an end.
Last edited by vfw614 on Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:42 pm

IslandRob wrote:
The specter of Eurocrats bullying the UK to make an example of it could prove counterproductive and, in fact, stoke the anti-EU flames in other countries. -ir


If EU does nothing and simply let UK walk away free and clear with zero consequences, THAT will what helps the anti-EU argument because that will say "guess what, you can have your national identity AND still get all the EU benefits without paying the annual fee".

UK only accounted for 17% of EU's nominal GDP. It's not THAT important, regardless of what the old guards of the Imperialist Brits think. If you hate Germany before you'll hate them more now, as they will account for 23% of the post-Brexit EU GDP.

And as someone else mentioned already, EEA means EU can unilaterally impose rules on you that you MUST comply to continue EEA membership. In the old days it was Cameron Hollande Merkel all sitting on the table as equal counterparts to chat. Now it's Merkel forcing it down your throat. Sounds like a much worse deal.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3801
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:51 pm

...and in all fairness, that is exactly what Cameron has tried to explain to the British public during the campaign. But obviously BoJo driving around in his bus with lies stickered on it was more convincing.
 
User avatar
IslandRob
Posts: 623
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:04 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:15 pm

a380787 wrote:
UK only accounted for 17% of EU's nominal GDP. It's not THAT important, regardless of what the old guards of the Imperialist Brits think. If you hate Germany before you'll hate them more now, as they will account for 23% of the post-Brexit EU GDP.

And as someone else mentioned already, EEA means EU can unilaterally impose rules on you that you MUST comply to continue EEA membership. In the old days it was Cameron Hollande Merkel all sitting on the table as equal counterparts to chat. Now it's Merkel forcing it down your throat. Sounds like a much worse deal.

Here's another way to look at the situation: Once again, England has foiled Germany's plan to take over Europe. I say this in jest, but it's kind of true. -ir
If you wrote me off, I'd understand it
'Cause I've been on some other planet
So come pick me up, I've landed
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:20 pm

IslandRob wrote:
a380787 wrote:
Here's another way to look at the situation: Once again, England has foiled Germany's plan to take over Europe. I say this in jest, but it's kind of true. -ir


If you're talking about WW2, no Churchill wouldn't have been able to stop The Third Reich's aggression by himself if he weren't assisted by transatlantic partners. D-Day was a coalition of forces. Let's not rewrite history here.
 
User avatar
IslandRob
Posts: 623
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:04 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:28 pm

a380787 wrote:
IslandRob wrote:
a380787 wrote:
Here's another way to look at the situation: Once again, England has foiled Germany's plan to take over Europe. I say this in jest, but it's kind of true. -ir


If you're talking about WW2, no Churchill wouldn't have been able to stop The Third Reich's aggression by himself if he weren't assisted by transatlantic partners. D-Day was a coalition of forces. Let's not rewrite history here.

Fair (if rather humorless) point. Instead of saying "foiled", I should have said "screwed up". Regards. -ir
If you wrote me off, I'd understand it
'Cause I've been on some other planet
So come pick me up, I've landed
 
vfw614
Posts: 3801
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:39 pm

Quote from the EU Commission's president: "Britons decided yesterday that they want to leave the European Union, so it doesn’t make any sense to wait until October to try to negotiate the terms of their departure. I would like to get started immediately. It’s not an amicable divorce, but it was not exactly a tight love affair anyway.”
 
IADCA
Posts: 1948
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:40 pm

vfw614 wrote:
...and in all fairness, that is exactly what Cameron has tried to explain to the British public during the campaign. But obviously BoJo driving around in his bus with lies stickered on it was more convincing.


Or it could be that the public has decided both campaigns were utterly full of it, and that faced with piles of overwrought nonsense from both sides, made a choice? I think you're severely overestimating the effectiveness of Leave at campaigning and severely underestimate how Remain pretty much cooked their own goose. Half of what those geniuses seemed to ever be babbling about was how much the financial services industry would be hurt by this. In other words, if you want to screw the bankers, vote Leave. That in itself was one of the more compelling arguments for leaving for many people, even if they are taking huge risks with their own lives by doing so. People were tired of listening to the bankers and listening to the Germans. Now they get to see how that fantasy works in the real world, but please don't pretend that people should actually have been expected to take anything David Cameron says at face value.

Now, of course, the bankers will never be left holding the bag - the fact that so many Tories voted Leave should be a hint of that - but Cameron did this to himself.

a380787 wrote:
IslandRob wrote:
a380787 wrote:
Here's another way to look at the situation: Once again, England has foiled Germany's plan to take over Europe. I say this in jest, but it's kind of true. -ir


If you're talking about WW2, no Churchill wouldn't have been able to stop The Third Reich's aggression by himself if he weren't assisted by transatlantic partners. D-Day was a coalition of forces. Let's not rewrite history here.


And Britain held out against the Blitz more or less alone long before any assistance from the U.S. other than that which was paid for in cash arrived, and literally years before D-Day (the success of which was greatly bolstered by the Germans already collapsing on the Eastern Front by the other enormous partner that so many Americans seem so apt to forget). And the other transatlantic partner contributed a lot earlier, and much more magnanimously than the U.S. when Britain was essentially alone. Let's not rewrite history here.
Last edited by IADCA on Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
mozart
Posts: 2154
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 12:21 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:13 pm

vfw614 wrote:
...and in all fairness, that is exactly what Cameron has tried to explain to the British public during the campaign. But obviously BoJo driving around in his bus with lies stickered on it was more convincing.


...not exactly helped by some of the low brow mass media. Why the UK has so many more of them than France, Germany, Italy, Spain, etc I don't know. Seems to meet the local taste
 
RIX
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2000 4:46 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:38 pm

Wow... What a bunch of pathetic losers! (Actually, quite a few of them, but very persistent ;) ). Waa, waa, Britain is leaving... Why are you so offended if they just want to get full control of their nation? Why all this bitterness, anger, bigotry, plain hatred? They owe you nothing!

Was fun to read though! Keep crying a river...
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1287
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:13 am

a380787 wrote:
UK only accounted for 17% of EU's nominal GDP. It's not THAT important, regardless of what the old guards of the Imperialist Brits think. If you hate Germany before you'll hate them more now, as they will account for 23% of the post-Brexit EU GDP.



This us why the EU will now fall apart.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18414
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:50 am

a380787 wrote:
If EU does nothing and simply let UK walk away free and clear with zero consequences, THAT will what helps the anti-EU argument because that will say "guess what, you can have your national identity AND still get all the EU benefits without paying the annual fee".

What does the EU have to do anything? The most common counter in diplomacy is 'tit for tat.' Since the UK imports more from the rest of the EU than they export, it will hurt jobs in the EU *more* than elsewhere.

Rational minds will be cool and negotiate. This was a democratic referendum, that must be respected. There will be consequences, but not nearly as dire as many predict.

1. Does the EU want back all of their workers from the UK terminated if there is a major recession (in particular, due to sanctions)? If the UK were 'punished,' they would make sure to export those workers first. Only Germany employs more non-citizen EU workers than Britain.
2. Does France want a 10% tax on luxury goods (including foods) and services sold to the UK? Does Germany want a 10% tax on cars and other exports to the UK? It will be 'tit for tat.' I think a compromise will work.
3. The EU is dependent on the financial centers of London, New York, Tokyo, and Hong Kong. Will they really cut themselves off from one? That would bankrupt Portugal at a minimum. Greece would be back into deep recession...

The reality is, FR, U2, and BA will do fine.
I'm mostly curious if this will break the halt in UK runway construction. If the UK sees recession, needed infrastructure projects are a great way to move the economy forward!

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
kitplane01
Posts: 1370
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 5:27 am

vfw614 wrote:
Is the UK forming a union with India, Canada, Brazil, Russia and South Korea? If no, I don't see your point. There are three economic superpowers in the world , and the UK is not one of them - GDP in millions of US$:

United States 17,947,000
European Union 16,220,370
China 10,982,829
...
United Kingdom 2,849,345 (and make that 10 per cent less without Scotland)


You said the UK was going to be an "economic midget". My point is that the UK is not an "economic midget" unless India, Russia, and Brazil are also "economic midgets". And if those countries qualify, then we need a different word than "economic midget".

My bigger point is that lots of countries do well without being in the NAFTA or the EU or being ruled from Beijing. Australia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Iceland are all examples of nations richer per capita than the UK with smaller economies than the UK. It's possible.
 
LJ
Posts: 4883
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 5:40 am

lightsaber wrote:
3. The EU is dependent on the financial centers of London, New York, Tokyo, and Hong Kong. Will they really cut themselves off from one? That would bankrupt Portugal at a minimum. Greece would be back into deep recession...


London does well because they were in the EU. Moreover, the EU has no choice in some laws. For example, a large part of all EU pension money is now managed out of London. However, according to the EU law, pension money from EU pension funds should always be managed out of an EEA country. Thus if the UK leaves, this means this mnoney will go away from London as it's no longer part of the EEA. This also means less high yield traffic to London as many US firms based their European subsidiary to capture this market in London.

vfw614 wrote:
Plus all those Financial Authorities set up under the new set of regulations will not be based in London. People in Frankfurt are already getting depressed about the outlook for the housing market because of all those new neighbors who will be arriving with rather deep pockets.


The chances of the EBA going to Frankfurt are not that high as the EU intended these two to be at seperate locations (most likely it will become Paris. However, other financial insitutions may go to Frankfurt (though they face comeptition from Dublin and Paris as both Ireland and France already started a PR show months ago).

The biggest winner will probably be Aer Lingus and thus I think that IAG made a very good move by buying them when nobody expected a Brexit.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2586
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 6:11 am

a380787 wrote:
IslandRob wrote:
The specter of Eurocrats bullying the UK to make an example of it could prove counterproductive and, in fact, stoke the anti-EU flames in other countries. -ir


If EU does nothing and simply let UK walk away free and clear with zero consequences, THAT will what helps the anti-EU argument because that will say "guess what, you can have your national identity AND still get all the EU benefits without paying the annual fee".


No one is saying they'll have a reason to be (or should be) particularly generous with the UK, but this idea that they'll try and be vindictive or punitive is, I think, hot air. I don't think the UK will receive "royal" treatment, but the EU can't afford to go Beggar My Neighbor on the UK lest they come off as trying to hold the EU together with fear and coercion, which is not only just wrong, but will play right into the Eurosceptics' hands.
 
LJ
Posts: 4883
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:30 am

flyguy89 wrote:
a380787 wrote:
IslandRob wrote:
The specter of Eurocrats bullying the UK to make an example of it could prove counterproductive and, in fact, stoke the anti-EU flames in other countries. -ir


If EU does nothing and simply let UK walk away free and clear with zero consequences, THAT will what helps the anti-EU argument because that will say "guess what, you can have your national identity AND still get all the EU benefits without paying the annual fee".


No one is saying they'll have a reason to be (or should be) particularly generous with the UK, but this idea that they'll try and be vindictive or punitive is, I think, hot air. I don't think the UK will receive "royal" treatment, but the EU can't afford to go Beggar My Neighbor on the UK lest they come off as trying to hold the EU together with fear and coercion, which is not only just wrong, but will play right into the Eurosceptics' hands.


There is a lot of reason to assume that the EU will be vindictive. EU countries like Poland and Roemania are already against the current opt out is it restricts their citizens to work in the UK. Any new agreement must include provisions which will prevent that this will be getting worse (which will be good news for Wizz Air). Next to that, the EU lobbyists (excluding the UK) will do their best to influence the agreement to their liking (which may not always be in the interest of the UK). Finally, many EU citizens are vindictive and on the other hand they've to ensure that we don't get a FRAXIT.

The only benefit for the airline industry is that the comming weeks, months a lot of people have to travel to Brussels for negociating the agreement and companies will need consultants to figure out the impact. All these people have to travel, which is some good news for the airlines.
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 1706
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:39 am

Economist saying the euro will not succeed unless there is more integration of EU Nations. The one nation that stood in the way was the UK. With the Brexit there is the option for closer integration for the countries that share the euro. According to many economists this is what is needed for success of the EU. Germany needs the EU to succeed, this could make it easier to ensure it happens.

What effect this will have on the airlines will not be known until the uncertainty is cleared up on what they actually agree with the EU. If it is a agreement like Norway to be part of the single market, then not much of a difference. This is not what England and Wales voted for, they want control and this is a loss of control, as JetBuddy confirms. Pay in to the market, obey the rules but have no influence in making those rules. Will the public stand for this?
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2586
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:15 am

LJ wrote:
There is a lot of reason to assume that the EU will be vindictive. EU countries like Poland and Roemania are already against the current opt out is it restricts their citizens to work in the UK.

Neither carry much weight in the EU however. The EU can afford to piss off Romania and Poland WAY more than, say, France or the Netherlands.

LJ wrote:
Next to that, the EU lobbyists (excluding the UK) will do their best to influence the agreement to their liking

As will the UK.

LJ wrote:
Finally, many EU citizens are vindictive and on the other hand they've to ensure that we don't get a FRAXIT.

..and a NEXIT, and a DENEXIT. The point is, the EU is not going to do themselves any favors by going out of their way to "make an example" of the EU...it's bullying, coercion, against the principles the EU says they stand for and will only fan the flames of discontent and skepticism towards the EU. And rightly so by the way if the only way they think they can keep the union together is by basically pointing a gun to everyone's head, "Don't you dare ever think about leaving, or we'll be sure and cripple your economy." Is that what it has come to for them?
 
User avatar
robffm2
Posts: 343
Joined: Mon Dec 18, 2006 8:47 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:47 am

vfw614 wrote:
... People in Frankfurt are already getting depressed about the outlook for the housing market because of all those new neighbors who will be arriving with rather deep pockets.
...


Actually the city of Frankfurt has released a new website the first thing Friday morning:
http://welcometofrm.com
 
User avatar
robffm2
Posts: 343
Joined: Mon Dec 18, 2006 8:47 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:06 pm

LJ wrote:
...
The chances of the EBA going to Frankfurt are not that high as the EU intended these two to be at seperate locations (most likely it will become Paris. However, other financial insitutions may go to Frankfurt (though they face comeptition from Dublin and Paris as both Ireland and France already started a PR show months ago).
...


It's very unlikely that EBA goes to Paris, as Paris is already home to ESMA. Together with EIOPA, they form the three main financial authorities of the EU (Wiki: ESAs). And EIOPA is already based in Frankfurt. So I believe it will be another country.
 
londonfog
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:11 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:25 pm

I think we should all hold our horses. The referendum in itself has the legal value of an opinion poll. It gives politicians a mandate to act but it does not prescribe action.

According to Art.50 of the Lisbon treaty nobody can forse anybody else out. A country can invoke Art.50 and start negotiations, only then the clock starts ticking. So, until somebody in government invokes art.50 nothing will happen.

Apparently Boris Johnson is not in a hurry
 
vfw614
Posts: 3801
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:37 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Economist saying the euro will not succeed unless there is more integration of EU Nations. The one nation that stood in the way was the UK. With the Brexit there is the option for closer integration for the countries that share the euro. According to many economists this is what is needed for success of the EU.


That is a good point. Indeed, that appears to be pretty much the sentiment in many EU governments: Get rid off the UK as quickly as possible now so that the EU can concentrate on its own matters - for which now will be more time as the era of protected negotiations of special deals with the UK has come to an end.

My bigger point is that lots of countries do well without being in the NAFTA or the EU or being ruled from Beijing. Australia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Iceland are all examples of nations richer per capita than the UK with smaller economies than the UK. It's possible.


Sure. But three superpowers with a combined GDP almost 20 times bigger than the GDP of England & Wales will always concentrate on trade deals between themselves first than with much much smaller economies, simply because these markets are much more attractive for exports. Plus the leverage is totally different.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3801
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:44 pm

On the bright side, the good news is that all the jobs the immigrants have taken at the expense of the British can now be re-taken by all those Brits re-migrating from the Costas and southern France back to the UK - without the EU and the protection of the treaty, all sorts of national discriminatory laws and regulations against non-EU citizens will be perfectly lawful - be it ownership of homes, running a business, working permits, taxes on second homes, access to public services etc. And all those rights cannot be negotiated bi-laterally with France or Spain, but only with the EU in which any deal can be vetoed by e.g. Romania, Lativa or Poland. To give you an idea, there are roughly 750.000 British residents in Spain and 400.000 in France - compare that to roughly 200.000 French and Spaniards living in London, most of the in London. Interesting article:

http://www.thelocal.fr/20160624/brexit- ... omplicated

enzo011 wrote:
Economist saying the euro will not succeed unless there is more integration of EU Nations. The one nation that stood in the way was the UK. With the Brexit there is the option for closer integration for the countries that share the euro. According to many economists this is what is needed for success of the EU.


That is a good point. Indeed, that appears to be pretty much the sentiment in many EU governments: Get rid off the UK as quickly as possible now so that the EU can concentrate on its own matters - for which now will be more time as the era of protected negotiations of special deals with the UK has come to an end.

My bigger point is that lots of countries do well without being in the NAFTA or the EU or being ruled from Beijing. Australia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Iceland are all examples of nations richer per capita than the UK with smaller economies than the UK. It's possible.
[/quote]

Sure. But three superpowers with a combined GDP almost 20 times bigger than the GDP of England & Wales will always concentrate on trade deals between themselves first than with much much smaller economies, simply because these markets are much more attractive for exports. Plus the leverage is totally different.
 
LJ
Posts: 4883
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:24 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
LJ wrote:
There is a lot of reason to assume that the EU will be vindictive. EU countries like Poland and Roemania are already against the current opt out is it restricts their citizens to work in the UK.

Neither carry much weight in the EU however. The EU can afford to piss off Romania and Poland WAY more than, say, France or the Netherlands.


You do realise that every EU member state needs to approve any new agreement with the UK and thus without these countries you don't have an agreement? No way that the EU will escalate the already troublesome relationship with Poland and make Romania angry (countries which remain in the EU). The current political climate is just not there (these countries are needed for various reasons by the EU and helping the UK will not be the number one item on the EU's agenda).

flyguy89 wrote:
LJ wrote:
Next to that, the EU lobbyists (excluding the UK) will do their best to influence the agreement to their liking

As will the UK.


Yet UK lobbyists don't have much to bargain for. I do see airlines like AF/KL already contacting their "friends" in politics to give them their lists of demands (and I doubt these will beneficiary for airlines like easyJet). They'll try to make it the best for them, not any UK airline.

BTW on the psoitive side for UK airlines, regulation 261/2004 will not be applicable anymore once outside ECAA.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3801
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:55 pm

Not really. Of course all airlines, be they EU or UK, departing from the EU, are subject to Reg 261/04.

What strikes me most are that a lot of Leave supporters have based their decision and now reaction on an absolute lack of knowledge and understanding of what the EU, EEA and EFTA are, what the legal principles governing those are and what the legal ramifications of an Brexit are. While I must admit that it is easier for someone like me to understand it as I hold a law degree, some basic understanding really is no rocket science. I have just wasted half an hour or so of my life of reading the comments section of some of the English newspapers online and the nonsense I read there spilled out by some readers was so gutwrechingly bizarre and uninformed that I am now more convinced than ever that outside local level, referendums are really a no-go. Leave it to general elections and then to politicians who, as bad as they may be, at least serve as a protection against uninformed decisions in a referendum - at least if they don't pull stunts like Cameron and Johnson who both created this mess just to win a de facto leadership contest.

What to expect from the most likely next UK PM? Stuff like: "Voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3" (Boris Johnson)
 
aaexecplat
Posts: 507
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2009 2:49 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:53 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
He is right and you are wrong. Google "EU Passport Financial Services" and you'll see this is no empty threat. The UK will lose lots of presence from Financial Services Firms that will have to open offices on the mainland to do business there now. That will cause UK ops to be downsized. It is real and it is happening.


The passport is active within the EEA, not just the EU.


As an addendum to my earlier reply. EEA members also have to abide by EU free movement of labor and immigration laws, so if that was the main thrust of leaving the EU, I suspect that the EEA or EFTA format of EU cooperation won't work for the UK.
 
BruceSmith
Posts: 69
Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 10:35 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sat Jun 25, 2016 5:32 pm

LJ wrote:
You do realise that every EU member state needs to approve any new agreement with the UK and thus without these countries you don't have an agreement? No way that the EU will escalate the already troublesome relationship with Poland and make Romania angry (countries which remain in the EU). The current political climate is just not there (these countries are needed for various reasons by the EU and helping the UK will not be the number one item on the EU's agenda).

Just a correction from an outsider, the text of the consolidated treaty requires a qualified majority in the Council to approve the exit agreements. The only reference to unanimous approval is if there is an extension request beyond the 2 years.
 
aaexecplat
Posts: 507
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2009 2:49 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:22 am

He is not talking about exit agreements... he is talking about new agreements post exit.
 
GDB
Posts: 13264
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:10 am

Well none of the people I work work with at BA see Brexit as anything other than a self imposed act of cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Seems we are not the only ones;

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... or-426686/

Oh those terrible 'Eurocrats', who allowed us opt outs on many EU policies the Euro being most prominent.
And now, several prominent Brexit campaigners have admitted (when they can be found) that the £350 million to the EU won't actually go to the NHS (which some of them would love to destroy anyway), despite being all over Boris's campaign bus, that actually immigration levels will probably not be reduced.

But the best illustration of the raw stupidity of Brexit can be found outside aviation, in an area hugely neglected by UK politicians of which the 'stars' of Brexit are more extreme versions of;

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... -ebbw-vale

And like so many other areas most strongly for Brexit - low levels of immigration too.
WTF?
 
David_itl
Posts: 6378
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2001 7:39 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:34 am

GDB wrote:
the £350 million to the EU


And here's the twist in the tale. The £350 million a week is based on the UK paying the EU £18 billion a year. However, the UK gets a £5 billion rebate taken off that immediately. So the net result is £250 million a week will stay in the UK. But take into consideration that approx £5 billion was given back to the UK in EU part funded project and we can further roll in back to £150 million a week.

The flip side being that the EU is going to be at least £13 billion short to maintain the current project investments . I can see the idea of the remaining countries suddenly having to find that amount of money when there are a number of "poorer" countries inside the EU going down like a lead balloon for a sizeable proportion of the population in the countries that are "net payers"
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2586
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:51 am

LJ wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
LJ wrote:
There is a lot of reason to assume that the EU will be vindictive. EU countries like Poland and Roemania are already against the current opt out is it restricts their citizens to work in the UK.

Neither carry much weight in the EU however. The EU can afford to piss off Romania and Poland WAY more than, say, France or the Netherlands.


You do realise that every EU member state needs to approve any new agreement with the UK and thus without these countries you don't have an agreement?


And you think Germany and France aren't the ones with the ultimate clout in whipping votes for the outcome they want? Poland and Romania can make all the public protestations they want, but they'll ultimately go along with what the heavyweights in the commission want.

LJ wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
LJ wrote:
Next to that, the EU lobbyists (excluding the UK) will do their best to influence the agreement to their liking

As will the UK.


Yet UK lobbyists don't have much to bargain for.


Sure they do. It's ultimately in the common interests of both sides for trade and commerce to be as liberalized as can be made. A European trading block with cumbersome trade links to the UK is a diminished one, and vice versa.
 
mozart
Posts: 2154
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 12:21 am

Re: Brexit wins: impact on British Airways, EasyJet, FlyBe, and other UK carriers.

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:43 am

vfw614 wrote:

What strikes me most are that a lot of Leave supporters have based their decision and now reaction on an absolute lack of knowledge and understanding of what the EU, EEA and EFTA are, what the legal principles governing those are and what the legal ramifications of an Brexit are. While I must admit that it is easier for someone like me to understand it as I hold a law degree, some basic understanding really is no rocket science. I have just wasted half an hour or so of my life of reading the comments section of some of the English newspapers online and the nonsense I read there spilled out by some readers was so gutwrechingly bizarre and uninformed that I am now more convinced than ever that outside local level, referendums are really a no-go.


Spot on. Asking a question that seems simple but whose implications to gauge is complex is not a good idea (unless you live in a country where people are "trained" in direct democracy, like Switzerland, and even there you have an accident from time to time).

A famous political satirist once said: "In politics, never take people for idiots, and never forget that they are". Sad, elitist, arrogant, whatever - but true. Just look though those newspaper comments and some comments on this forum and you have your proof.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos