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sejtam
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Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:39 am

What impact will the Brexit have no Airbus, which manufactures parts of their planes in the UK and assembles outside?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:44 am

We will see. I would not expect any further investment into the UK factories for the next few years.

This vote was one thing, the real test will be the next UK government. If it is made up by the leading figures of the Brexit movement, it will be very bad for both sides. If it is a pro-EU government we might not even see it use Article 50.

You can not be part of a common market and at the same time keep your promise to protect British interest from EU competition. You can not hope to remove persons from the EU the UK and yet hope that British citizens will be able to pick their residence in the EU freely.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:38 am

seahawk wrote:
This vote was one thing, the real test will be the next UK government. If it is made up by the leading figures of the Brexit movement, it will be very bad for both sides. If it is a pro-EU government we might not even see it use Article 50.


That's not what's being said this morning. Cameron says that Article 50 will be invoked quickly. Nobody wants this to drag out, not the UK nor the EU. I can't see a general election before Brexit is completed, so the next government (whoever that is) has nothing to do with it.
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There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:51 am

Early rumours are Boris as PM. Which is scary.

How it'll affect pan-european companies is very hard to say.

Even assuming if the EU as we currently see it minus UK remains intact (i.e. the likes of France don't vote to leave), then for instance, if the pound does hold a lower value long term against the Euro - that will come with its own implications for business decisions.


But, leaving aside the fact that its ridiculously hard, if not impossible, for anyone to predict with any certainty what will transpire - I will say that Airbus have moved away from being a "governmental toy" to a more "business guided decisions" corporation in recent years - so I wouldn't expect interaction with the UK to change based on political reasons alone.
If it makes economic sense (to Airbus) to continue to design & manufacture wings in Filton, then I expect they will.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:15 pm

scbriml wrote:
seahawk wrote:
This vote was one thing, the real test will be the next UK government. If it is made up by the leading figures of the Brexit movement, it will be very bad for both sides. If it is a pro-EU government we might not even see it use Article 50.


That's not what's being said this morning. Cameron says that Article 50 will be invoked quickly. Nobody wants this to drag out, not the UK nor the EU. I can't see a general election before Brexit is completed, so the next government (whoever that is) has nothing to do with it.


That is crazy. I simply can not see how the current parliament and government could be legitimated to handle the exit when the were against it. And Boris as PM leading the negotiations with the EU can only end it a total disaster.
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:07 pm

Unfortunately it is now impossible to see a members age or nationality, so its difficult to know whether I'm replying to a UK citizen or not.

The UK elects a Govt for 5 years, unless the opposition parties manage to create a majority in the House of Commons and force a vote of no confidence the ruling party continues in power. we as a nation do not vote for a Prime Minister, we elect a party and they choose a leader in accordance with their rules. Around half the present Conservative MP's supported brexit, around 30% of the cabinet are included in this. No doubt quite a few others will now switch sides as politicians do when they see which way the wind is blowing.
Finally I doubt that the membership of the Conservative party will elect Boris as leader, he's great for PR but that's it. Its one member one vote, and he won't get mine !!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:39 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Airbus have moved away from being a "governmental toy" to a more "business guided decisions" corporation in recent years - so I wouldn't expect interaction with the UK to change based on political reasons alone.

If it makes economic sense (to Airbus) to continue to design & manufacture wings in Filton, then I expect they will.


They'd be stupid to move wing manufacture out of the UK (and lose all that experience) unless it became much cheaper to move it inside the Euro-zone. Equally, it would be stupid of the British Government to not offer Airbus incentives to remain in the UK.

seahawk wrote:
That is crazy. I simply can not see how the current parliament and government could be legitimated to handle the exit when the were against it.


They are the democratically elected Government that has been shown the will of the people. It is now their duty to ensure the UK gets the best possible deal it can from leaving the EU. Given all political parties apart from UKIP (with ONE MP) were in favour of remaining, who do you suggest forms a new Government?

seahawk wrote:
And Boris as PM leading the negotiations with the EU can only end it a total disaster.


Even the Tories are unlikely to elect an idiot like BoJo as leader in place of Cameron. :shock:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:50 pm

scbriml wrote:

They are the democratically elected Government that has been shown the will of the people. It is now their duty to ensure the UK gets the best possible deal it can from leaving the EU. Given all political parties apart from UKIP (with ONE MP) were in favour of remaining, who do you suggest forms a new Government?

That is why I think they need a new parliament. A MP should not be forced to act against his own believes, when he thinks that it will result in damage to the country.
scbriml wrote:
Even the Tories are unlikely to elect an idiot like BoJo as leader in place of Cameron. :shock:

First rumours seem to indicate it could happen.
 
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KrustyTheKlown
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:51 pm

If the pound keeps decreasing in value Airbus may have an incentive to keep its British facilities and keep working closely with UK suppliers.

Politically Airbus could be compelled to consolidate its operations within the EU. But right now it is too late to move the production of parts for the A320ceo/neo, A330ceo/neo, A350 and A380s.

If the A380neo is ever launched and its wing is redesigned I would not expect it to be produced in the UK. If the A380 ceases production Airbus could move its UK operations to the buildings currently used for A380 assembly.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:13 pm

seahawk wrote:
That is why I think they need a new parliament. A MP should not be forced to act against his own believes, when he thinks that it will result in damage to the country.


The Tories, who were elected on the basis they would hold the referendum, will elect a new leader. Cameron had no choice but to step down.

There is absolutely no requirement for a new General Election or a new Government.

seahawk wrote:
First rumours seem to indicate it could happen.


He's too devisive so I don't believe he'd win a leadership contest. If he did, I'll be off to Scotland. :x
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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teva
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:04 pm

Maybe I overlooked it in other threads, but I am wondering the future of BA and IB with the european rules on foreign ownership. With UK no longer in the EU, will BA be able to keep IB?

About Airbus, the future of Filton will be based on customs tarrifs that may be created and have a huge impact on the final cost.
Ecoute les orgues, Elles jouent pour toi...C'est le requiem pour un con
 
sk736
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:35 pm

[quote="Bongodog1964"]
we as a nation do not vote for a Prime Minister, we elect a party and they choose a leader

No we don't...each constituency elects an individual to represent them in Parliament and the leader of the party with the majority of MPs (usually) becomes the Prime Minister. We certainly do not elect a party.
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:00 pm

sk736 wrote:
by sk736 » 24 Jun 2016 17:35
Bongodog1964 wrote:
we as a nation do not vote for a Prime Minister, we elect a party and they choose a leader

No we don't...each constituency elects an individual to represent them in Parliament and the leader of the party with the majority of MPs (usually) becomes the Prime Minister. We certainly do not elect a party.
sk736 wrote:
Bongodog1964 wrote:
we as a nation do not vote for a Prime Minister, we elect a party and they choose a leader

No we don't...each constituency elects an individual to represent them in Parliament and the leader of the party with the majority of MPs (usually) becomes the Prime Minister. We certainly do not elect a party.


In theory you are correct, in practice the vast majority vote for the party, not the individual candidate.
Its virtually impossible to get elected without the support of a major political party.
 
747megatop
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:16 am

sejtam wrote:
What impact will the Brexit have no Airbus, which manufactures parts of their planes in the UK and assembles outside?

I don't see how Airbus would change. Even today, realistically speaking, Britain for all purposes is a separate country and so are Germany and France; and the Airbus consortium is run as a professional global world class organization. Now, with BREXIT, after Brtain exist from EU. there may be some minor annoyances, but i think it would be business as usual for Airbus (Airbus & the respective govts know that there is too much at stake to let BREXIT distract them from keeping Airbus intact and running like a professional world class organization to remain as one of the top 2 airframe manufacturers for the foreseeable future).
 
spacecadet
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:16 am

747megatop wrote:
but i think it would be business as usual for Airbus (Airbus & the respective govts know that there is too much at stake to let BREXIT distract them from keeping Airbus intact and running like a professional world class organization to remain as one of the top 2 airframe manufacturers for the foreseeable future).


It actually *can't* be business as usual. The EU is a special economic zone that the UK will no longer be part of. Workers will no longer be able to shuttle around between countries easily, tariffs and taxes will now be assessed as if the UK is a completely foreign country (because it is), imports and exports will be restricted, etc. This won't all happen for the next two years, but it will happen. It's going to be very difficult for the present arrangement to stay the same.

You can say "but this is so economically important that obviously the EU and UK will make an exception", but the thing is, this is literally the kind of thing the people of the UK just voted against. Being in the EU was economically important, and Airbus is a perfect example of why. The majority of UK voters just didn't care. They voted, and now the UK and EU are going to have to respect that vote. There's not going to be an "exception" made for anything. The UK and EU will separate, and Airbus will be different as a result. Exactly how remains to be seen, but businesses just are no longer going to be able to treat the EU and UK as if they're in the same economic and political zone anymore. That's the literal result of leaving the EU, like it or not.
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kitplane01
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 5:17 am

spacecadet wrote:
It actually *can't* be business as usual. The EU is a special economic zone that the UK will no longer be part of. Workers will no longer be able to shuttle around between countries easily, tariffs and taxes will now be assessed as if the UK is a completely foreign country (because it is), imports and exports will be restricted, etc. This won't all happen for the next two years, but it will happen. It's going to be very difficult for the present arrangement to stay the same.


Maybe that's true, and maybe not. No one yet knows what the new arrangements will be. In the short term the problem for Airbus is not "everything will be terrible" but instead "we don't know what will happen, and business needs to go on anyway".

Taxes already were assessed as if the UK is a completely foreign country.
 
sierra3tango
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:27 am

It actually *can't* be business as usual. The EU is a special economic zone that the UK will no longer be part of. Workers will no longer be able to shuttle around between countries easily, tariffs and taxes will now be assessed as if the UK is a completely foreign country (because it is), imports and exports will be restricted, etc. This won't all happen for the next two years, but it will happen. It's going to be very difficult for the present arrangement to stay the same.

Interesting theory 'imports & exports restricted'? Assume you mean 'dutiable' not 'restricted'.
Example - If you take RR engines being installed on a Boeing plane. The engines are exported to the USA (x UK) and imported into the US as 'temporary' import which are subsequently re exported to a customer outside the USA.; therefore no duty on the engines.

Don't know what the US rules are for a Boeing plane (with RR engines) but if US duty is imposed on import at whatever rate, then US airlines (& RR) will be disadvantaged against their overseas competitors by the value of that duty. So presumably the USA somehow avoids this detriment to its airlines.

UK exports many sub assemblies and engines to the US without duty effecting the trade, so why can it not export to the EU?

Would have thought that any potential problem would be the exchange X rate EUR/GBP.
The UK doesn't succeed GBP falls v EUR/ USD = Airbus have a lower cost UK supply chain
The UK does succeed GBP rises v EUR/USD = Airbus have a higher cost UK supply chain
Would have thought this is far more relevant to the discussion.

As for movement of labour; personally I live in Bahrain and work in quite legally Saudi Arabia without a work permit, I'm on secondment. The theory that EU workers won't be able to work in the UK either on secondment or as 'specialists' (which can be listed as visa waivure) doesn't hold water. If it did how can US / Canadian companies own UK companies that export aerospace parts & equipment to US / Canada.
 
sejtam
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:14 am

As for 'the will of the people': It was (ciminally, IMHO) stupid to allow this referenbdum to decide the longterm future and relationships of the UK with just a simple majority (<2% margin!)

For good reasons, decisions with such wideranging effects usually require much larger majorities (2/3, 3/4), so that
simple mood swings in smaller parts of the population, or external influences (weather making it impossible t get to the voting station, illness, heck even simple change of mind in undecided voters) cannot skew the result.

The way it is, the losing side will now be able to call for a revote quite often when pools show a change of mind, and there will be no clarity whatsoever. And rightly so i say.
I blame this cockup on David Cameron.
 
sejtam
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:17 am

sierra3tango wrote:
UK exports many sub assemblies and engines to the US without duty effecting the trade, so why can it not export to the EU?


Because of existing trade agreements? The UK did not need those with the EU as they were part of the makeup of the EU membership. That will change now, and the UK will have to negotiate new trade agreements (governing tariffs, trade limitations, trade access restrictions and conditions [ validity of safety certification and the application of changes to the same etc] either with the remainder of the EU as a whole, or with each country separately)
 
vv701
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:03 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Early rumours are Boris as PM. Which is scary.

If it makes economic sense (to Airbus) to continue to design & manufacture wings in Filton, then I expect they will.


Airbus wing design and engineering support is based at Filton. However wing manufacture is carried out at Broughton in North Wales.
 
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robffm2
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 5:51 pm

teva wrote:
Maybe I overlooked it in other threads, but I am wondering the future of BA and IB with the european rules on foreign ownership. With UK no longer in the EU, will BA be able to keep IB?
...


If I'm not mistaken, it's the other way round: BA is owned by IAG, legally a Spanish company.
From their website:
Formed in January 2011, IAG is the parent company of Aer Lingus, British Airways, Iberia and Vueling. It is a Spanish registered company with shares traded on the London Stock Exchange and Spanish Stock Exchanges. The corporate head office for IAG is in London, UK.

By the way, IAG shares declined yesterday by 22.5 % (LSE), respectively by 26.9 %(MAD).
 
trex8
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:44 pm

scbriml wrote:
Even the Tories are unlikely to elect an idiot like BoJo as leader in place of Cameron. :shock:

First rumours seem to indicate it could happen.[/quote]

The Tories have a history of " He Who Swings The Sword Will Not Wear The Crown". Thats why Majors was PM after Thatcher, not Haseltine. A compromise candidate, not Johnson or Gove will be PM.
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:42 pm

In the short term the problem for Airbus is not "everything will be terrible" but instead "we don't know what will happen, and business needs to go on anyway".


Well, that is exactly the ingredient for a recession. Businesses (and Joe Public) do not invest and spend as much money in times of uncertainty as they would do in times of stability.posting.php?mode=reply&f=3&t=1336217#

Taxes already were assessed as if the UK is a completely foreign country.


Just think of VAT for supplier deliveries. Much more complicated in the future. Tax is much more than just income tax.


As for movement of labour; personally I live in Bahrain and work in quite legally Saudi Arabia without a work permit, I'm on secondment. The theory that EU workers won't be able to work in the UK either on secondment or as 'specialists' (which can be listed as visa waivure) doesn't hold water.


Wasn't that the point of the whole Brexit - keep those foreigners out? And while you may be happy with an arrangement that involves temporary permits and/or secondments, it is certainly not to the liking of the average family with children. If that is the concept of Brexit, I wish them good luck...
 
willd
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:09 pm

scbriml wrote:
seahawk wrote:
This vote was one thing, the real test will be the next UK government. If it is made up by the leading figures of the Brexit movement, it will be very bad for both sides. If it is a pro-EU government we might not even see it use Article 50.


That's not what's being said this morning. Cameron says that Article 50 will be invoked quickly. Nobody wants this to drag out, not the UK nor the EU. I can't see a general election before Brexit is completed, so the next government (whoever that is) has nothing to do with it.


Sorry but this statement is wrong. CAmeron has said he won't invoke Article 50. That means it will be October at the earliest before its invoked. The Leave camp are also keen for Article 50 not to be invoked in a rush- the reason being once it's invoked you only have two years To exit. As such, Leave don't want Article 50 to be invoked straight away as it will give them less time to negotiate an exit as the clock starts running as soon as its invoked.

There will be a general election before Brexit is completed (partly because the new leader of the conservatives will hope he or she can wins snap election). BRexit will probably take ten years to fully achieve. That is because of the sheer number of treaties and laws that will need to be negotiated etc and also because no one actually knows the full procedure yet as this hasn't happened before.

If I may I suggest you watch this evenings Newsnight special on catch up and also the 20 minute video from the head of EU law at Liverpool University that went viral. The former neatly sums up why Article 50 won't be invoked asap and the later explains the time scales for a full exit.
 
NorthstarBoy
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:22 pm

Like User Teva, I also wonder what effect this is going to have on IAG.

Is the company going to have to break up?
Yes, I'd like to see airbus go under so Boeing can have their customers!
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:25 pm

willd wrote:
Sorry but this statement is wrong. CAmeron has said he won't invoke Article 50. That means it will be October at the earliest before its invoked. The Leave camp are also keen for Article 50 not to be invoked in a rush- the reason being once it's invoked you only have two years To exit. As such, Leave don't want Article 50 to be invoked straight away as it will give them less time to negotiate an exit as the clock starts running as soon as its invoked.


EU lawyers have argued today that "invoking" does not mean a formal written notification, but the first time an UK official begins discussing Brexit issues with the EU - which could be as early as Tuesday when Cameron will face the music in Brussels. So he will need to weigh his words very carefully, as no legal precedent exists. It would be quite ironic if the UK would need to turn to the much-hated ECJ to get a ruling on the issue. Personally I don't think the EU will take that view, but countless EU officials have made it abundantly clear that they will not accept delaying tactics by the UK. Today, the lead negotiator for the EU, a guy from Belgium, was already appointed and instructed to begin preparations for the Brexit.
 
javierglez
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:50 pm

It's not like people in other European countries are being sensible with their votings. Watch the raise of communism among young people in Spain "Podemos". And they're not longing for some soft kind euro-communism but they fancy hard-lined old cuban repressive reactionary style . Don't look for excuses, they're healthy and properly dressed and educated.

I'm worried about my small bunch of old EADS shares too.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:48 pm

The worst thing for AB would be for EU to over react, pass more regulation, more taxes and increase tariffs. After all, AB needs wings and rr's.

As a poster above said:

Well, that is exactly the ingredient for a recession. Businesses (and Joe Public) do not invest and spend as much money in times of uncertainty as they would do in times of stability.posting.php?mode=reply&f=3&t=1336217#

The only thing certain about the EU is extremely low growth in incomes, employment and tax base. And much of the slow growth is due to all this creeping regulation implemented by un elected commissioners.

Is this good for anybody in the EU?

Those that voted for leave recognized that the current situation is not tenable. They took a risk!

Good grief , who can blame them?

It’s about time someone did.

Hopefully Britain can now lead the way with some free market policies. The boom that follows will be a good example for all of us.
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:39 am

NorthstarBoy wrote:
Like User Teva, I also wonder what effect this is going to have on IAG.

Is the company going to have to break up?


There is a good piece in Flightglobal on that. It suggests that IAG will shift capacity to its hubs in MAD and DUB and prop up Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus at the expense of British Airways.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:46 am

vfw614 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
In the short term the problem for Airbus is not "everything will be terrible" but instead "we don't know what will happen, and business needs to go on anyway".


Well, that is exactly the ingredient for a recession. Businesses (and Joe Public) do not invest and spend as much money in times of uncertainty as they would do in times of stability.posting.php?mode=reply&f=3&t=1336217#

kitplane01 wrote:
Taxes already were assessed as if the UK is a completely foreign country.


Just think of VAT for supplier deliveries. Much more complicated in the future. Tax is much more than just income tax.


I don't understand this. Why would VAT calculations be more complicated because of this change? No matter from whom you buy your supplies, it reduces your future VAT payments in the same way. A UK manufacturer who buys from France or South Africa or Taiwan right now reduces his VAT payments in the same way. Unless the UK changes it's internal tax code in a very weird way, that will continue.

Also, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE NEW ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE. It's unreasonable to assume the worst or the best.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:12 am

Just another question. Does anyone know if the current requirement to qualify for export financing includes a requirement that a certain % is EU (or EEA) made? Moreover, should UK be outside the EEA doesn't this mean that UK airlines are eligible for both export financing from Boeing (EXIM) and Airbus? I recall that the trade agreement between the EU and the US forbids export financing to eachother's market. Thus if the UK would leave EEA I would assume this opens up export financing for UK airlines.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:18 am

vfw614 wrote:
EU lawyers have argued today that "invoking" does not mean a formal written notification, but the first time an UK official begins discussing Brexit issues with the EU - which could be as early as Tuesday when Cameron will face the music in Brussels.


As reported by the BBC yesterday, an EC spokesman said that a formal declaration was required from the UK Government to invoke Article 50. So the situation is far from clear.

Angela Merkel said that there's no need to rush into the negotiations.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:21 am

kitplane01 wrote:
I don't understand this. Why would VAT calculations be more complicated because of this change? No matter from whom you buy your supplies, it reduces your future VAT payments in the same way. A UK manufacturer who buys from France or South Africa or Taiwan right now reduces his VAT payments in the same way. Unless the UK changes it's internal tax code in a very weird way, that will continue.


I think you've to look at the added costs of filling in more forms etc.

kitplane01 wrote:
Also, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE NEW ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE. It's unreasonable to assume the worst or the best.


Which is what will the Airbus main problem with this vote. Like any other company Airbus needs to know what's going to happen soon as it must make decisions and re-evaluate current decisions concerning its operations in the UK. This will also mean that management (and lower employees) have to spend money and time for this and thus cannot focus on other issues. However, (tax) consultants and civil servants will thank the UK voters for extra work (at least for the next two years).
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:32 am

scbriml wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
EU lawyers have argued today that "invoking" does not mean a formal written notification, but the first time an UK official begins discussing Brexit issues with the EU - which could be as early as Tuesday when Cameron will face the music in Brussels.


As reported by the BBC yesterday, an EC spokesman said that a formal declaration was required from the UK Government to invoke Article 50. So the situation is far from clear.

Angela Merkel said that there's no need to rush into the negotiations.


I don't realistically see how the "2nd referendum" has any chance to even be on the table. A50 will be invoked, and will be invoked quickly post Cameron.

However, in the exact wording of A50, I believe it says the 2 year window is only suggested. If both parties mutually agree on extensions, there's nothing in it that limits how many times extensions, or even how long. If someone is schrewd they can invoke A50 for the sake of satisfying the referendum, then say "we'll do a 999-year exit" (extremely unlikely case, but it sounds like it's a loophole that could be exploited)

Either do it quick or drag it to infinity. Wasting 4-5 years on the exit hurts all sides. ps : at this junction, I sincerely believe SNP and SinnFein will win their respective causes. Brexit gave the single strongest excuse to present to their constituencies. BFS can either be a left over after thought of UK, or Top 3 city within "unified Ireland" ... gee I wonder. GLA+EDI can be split one as business capital one as political capital, elevating both their statures instead of "757 across Atlantic, virgin to Orlando, and ME3 for everything east" type of airport. (they can GLA everything but EDI folks would revolt)

The final "union" will just be "United Kingdom of Southern Britain"
 
GDB
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:00 am

I went into work at BA on Friday in a state of pessimistic gloom that was shared by most others.
Followed by anger, a state by Mr Cruz was posted hoping to reassure but there is this;
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... or-426686/

I told some younger people to learn Spanish and/or start boning up on living in Ireland.
Could be worse in one respect, I'd hate to be a Easy Jet now.
 
vfw614
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:25 am

don't understand this. Why would VAT calculations be more complicated because of this change? No matter from whom you buy your supplies, it reduces your future VAT payments in the same way. A UK manufacturer who buys from France or South Africa or Taiwan right now reduces his VAT payments in the same way. Unless the UK changes it's internal tax code in a very weird way, that will continue.


The procedure is much more straightforward for intra-EU business.
http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/ta ... dex_en.htm

Also, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE NEW ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE. It's unreasonable to assume the worst or the best.


Of ocurse we know what the new arrangements will be. They are already in place. The UK will be just another third country in relation to the EU like 170 other countries in the world that already do business with the EU. The UK will either be covered by stuff like the GATS agreement (for WTO members) or if they want, the EFTA rules (unlikely, as this means de facto EU membership obligations incl. freedom of movement).

It is a grave misunderstanding that the exit negotiations under Art. 50 have anything to do with cutting the UK yet another speical deal compared to the rest of the world. Exit negotiations are about disentangling the UK from EU institutions, laws etc. A trade agreement is a wholly different issue, and I find it fanciful to believe that the UK will be allowed a generous trade agreement if they do not want to play along the EFTA rules - which is the going deal for European states that are non-EU members.

However, in the exact wording of A50, I believe it says the 2 year window is only suggested. If both parties mutually agree on extensions, there's nothing in it that limits how many times extensions, or even how long. If someone is schrewd they can invoke A50 for the sake of satisfying the referendum, then say "we'll do a 999-year exit" (extremely unlikely case, but it sounds like it's a loophole that could be exploited)


You have to understand that the UK wants to be disentangled form the EU, not vice versa. The EU can very well tell the UK after two years to sort out their mess on their own, this is called an un-coordinated exit which is also possible. Consensus at the moment in EU land appears to be that the EU would only agree to an extension in exchange for concessions by the UK. A rather prominent German EU parliament figure yesterday said all parties should aim for an exit after 12 months so that the EU and the economy can get on with more pressing business.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:38 am

Negociation with EU are not so easy some in the UK seems to believe. Look at that bloomberg news:
Switzerland is preparing for a final round of negotiations with the European Union on immigration in the 13 days following the U.K. vote on EU membership, Swiss newspaper Tages-Anzeiger reported, without saying how it got the information.

Switzerland’s chief negotiator with the EU, Jacques de Watteville, informed the government on Wednesday about his plan for talks on limiting the number of EU newcomers to the country, the newspaper said. Several rounds of negotiations are planned for after June 23, the day of the U.K. referendum, to produce a solution by July 6, when Swiss state secretary for migration Mario Gattiker is scheduled to meet with his EU counterpart Richard Szostak, according to the paper.

The Swiss government is trying to sort out a dispute over immigration with the 28-country bloc without annulling a treaty that would cost the Swiss economy an estimated 32 billion francs ($32 billion) a year. The negotiations follow a 2014 referendum in which Swiss citizens backed an initiative to impose limits on immigration. In February, Switzerland voted against deporting foreigners convicted of crimes, which could have thwarted negotiations after an agreement seemed to have inched closer last year.


Swiss is not happy as they think that now all is off.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:55 am

vfw614 wrote:
The EU can very well tell the UK after two years to sort out their mess on their own, this is called an un-coordinated exit which is also possible.


Yes, unless an extension is agreed by all, if anything is not resolved after two years, it's left out.

vfw614 wrote:
A rather prominent German EU parliament figure yesterday said all parties should aim for an exit after 12 months so that the EU and the economy can get on with more pressing business.


As much as anyone wants a speedy resolution, the rules are clear on the limit. If it takes two years, it takes two years.

As far as other EU busines is concerned, while technically the UK is a full member until such time as an exit agreement is ratified or the two-year limit reached, I don't belive the UK would make itself any kind of an obstruction to stopping or delaying day-to-day EU business.

Although we could, in theory, continue to take part in all decision making processes (apart from decisions relating to our own exit), I would expect the UK to politely withdraw pending the exit agreement.

a380787 wrote:
I don't realistically see how the "2nd referendum" has any chance to even be on the table.


It isn't and shouldn't be. Only the SNP wants to keep having referendums until they get the result they want (although the EU does have some history on that).
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
aviationaware
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:21 pm

sejtam wrote:
What impact will the Brexit have no Airbus, which manufactures parts of their planes in the UK and assembles outside?


None. What many euro-lovers fail to grasp is that being a member of the EUSSR is not a prerequisite for having free trade with its member states. There are plenty of examples of companies in 'third countries' as they like to call it having wonderful trade with EU countries. 10% of all the parts in an Airbus are made in America. There are Airbus aircraft assembled in both America and China - both not members in the EU and not in any other way subject to this bureaucratic monstrosity.

While the EU commission (also known as the politburo) has threatened the UK in best reminiscence of how the soviets used to treat dissident republics, they will do nothing at all that is against free trade.

The EU is nothing but big corporate interest. It's the miraculous way big money has found to rope socialists in for their cause, and somehow the socialists have not quite grasped that yet and are still zealously defending this abomination.
Long story short, anything that stands against big corporate interest is of no interest at all to the EU. So make your own judgement if they will act on their empty threats. The UK imports A LOT more than they export. Also, the majority of UK exports go outside the EU - only 45% or 212 billion go into it. The majority of their imports come from within the EU - 55% or 365 billion. 153 billion is nothing the EU will pass on.

As you can see, the EU needs to keep up free trade with the UK far more than vice versa. Brexit enemies like to point out that the UK importing 25% of their food from the EU creates a dependence on free trade with the EU, but they fail to see that this medal has two sides.

So the UK will have zero long term trade repercussions from this (unlike what some media are trying to suggest, the market turbulences of the past few days are not the cost of exit; they are just a storm in a water glass that will correct itself and lead to very limited real world costs), but will regain their sovereignty from unelected, unaccountable corporate interest bureaucrats in Brussels. A clear win-win.

Anyone who has ever taken a university course knows that a scientific model's output can be only as good as the data you feed into it. Want an example? EU lovers like to tell us how EU migrants put in more into the British public purse than they take out. While irrefutably true, it does not take into account that this statistic is saved by well qualified workers from western European countries, who in turn are dragged down again by unqualified economic migrants from eastern Europe. Shutting those people out does not cancel out the net positive effect of migration on the British economy, it actually enhances it.

I find it very encouraging to see that a majority in a large European country had the good sense to think for themselves instead of believing all the BS they were told by people who are in corporate interest's pocket.

Next stop: Taking back taxes from all the corporations who evade it with some shady legal constructs made possible by their flunkies in supranational organizations. People taking over again.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:46 pm

aviationaware wrote:
sejtam wrote:
What impact will the Brexit have no Airbus, which manufactures parts of their planes in the UK and assembles outside?


None. What many euro-lovers fail to grasp is that being a member of the EUSSR is not a prerequisite for having free trade with its member states.


Quite a bit. Quite a few people seem to be in ignorance about what the EU is about.
The EU is not a free trade zone, It is a common market. There is no difference between making business inside the common market from doing business inside a country. No in or exports over customs borders. No different certification. No restriction in sending your work force from France over to the UK to fix some problems. No need getting work permits. No health inspections of food, I can go on. If some goods are imported into the EU, it does not mattere where.
Next step is is EEA, same certification, no constrained on movement of labour, capital, service and goods. You have no custom tariffs, but you have custom borders, health inspections, adding on average 4% cost of doing business.
A free trade zone is only in regards of tariffs everything else can be a barrier or additional cost not.
 
billreid
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:55 pm

BREXIT is being massively misread by everyone. First, trade is trade and if anyone thinks the UK will be dropped off the side of the planet never to be seen again they need to come to terms with reality. There will be impact but Airbus will be OK.

Everyone in the UK regardless whether they were IN or OUT were less than happy with the EU. In fact the greater majority of consumers feel the taxes to Brussels are not near in line with what they do for the normal Joe. That said trade within the EU will not be impacted. The vote was the first step in a process that we don't know when and where this will end. But trade and manufacturing will not stop.

The EU may come under great stress. Without England many of the countries will become extremely weary of too much German control within the EU. It will soon become clear, given the German history over the last hundred years and the resulting distrust from so many Europeans that if Germany becomes too strong if the UK does really Exit then the EU may come tumbling down like a house of cards in a gale.

If the EU crumbles,and it is nothing more than a bureaucratic disaster all the countries will continue to exist, NATO will continue to exist, and Airbus will continue to do business.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3852
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:30 pm

Ultimately though, the UK, and especially London are more needed by the EU then vice versa. The EU is extremely upset and embarrassed that one of their main countries, if not THE main country left them at the altar....


You may want to check your figures. The UK exports 45 per cent of its goods to the EU. The EU exports 7 per cent of its goods to the UK.

Some countries export more to the UK than they import from the UK? Well, Tescos sells more to me than I sell to Tescos. Do I set the rules and prices because of that? (analogy taken from a very good piece in the Economist on Brexit).

As long as there is a free trade agreement, the UK will still manufacture and export and still buy and import. The EU will be rather stupid to diminish that.


A free trade agreement is wholly different from the common market the UK will no longer be part of. Trade under a free trade agreement leads to considerably higher transaction costs than trade in a common market. If companies have the option to produce inside a common market serving 440m or importing into the common market from a third country which is a much smaller home market and leads to added transactions costs, the choice for many will be obvious.

Plus, all the arguments I am reading seem to refer to trade in goods, asif the UK was still a major industrial player. In the real world, many economies, particularly the UK, are relying on trade in services nowadays. And certain cross-border services into the EU will be off the table, e.g. financial services that need to be passported, or legal services that are covered by EU directives.
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:57 pm

Olddog wrote:
Negociation with EU are not so easy some in the UK seems to believe. Look at that bloomberg news:
Switzerland is preparing for a final round of negotiations with the European Union on immigration in the 13 days following the U.K. vote on EU membership, Swiss newspaper Tages-Anzeiger reported, without saying how it got the information.

Switzerland’s chief negotiator with the EU, Jacques de Watteville, informed the government on Wednesday about his plan for talks on limiting the number of EU newcomers to the country, the newspaper said. Several rounds of negotiations are planned for after June 23, the day of the U.K. referendum, to produce a solution by July 6, when Swiss state secretary for migration Mario Gattiker is scheduled to meet with his EU counterpart Richard Szostak, according to the paper.

The Swiss government is trying to sort out a dispute over immigration with the 28-country bloc without annulling a treaty that would cost the Swiss economy an estimated 32 billion francs ($32 billion) a year. The negotiations follow a 2014 referendum in which Swiss citizens backed an initiative to impose limits on immigration. In February, Switzerland voted against deporting foreigners convicted of crimes, which could have thwarted negotiations after an agreement seemed to have inched closer last year.


Swiss is not happy as they think that now all is off.


I assume your reference to "Swiss" should read "Switzerland"? It sounds like you are referring to LX, the airline.

I can see virtually no impact on LX from the UK leaving the EU. The only impact would be if LX was operating 5th freedom routes beyond the UK which they don't do. Their only flights to the UK are from Switzerland where the UK's EU membership is irrelevant.
 
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kitplane01
Posts: 1536
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:43 am

a380787 wrote:
However, in the exact wording of A50, I believe it says the 2 year window is only suggested. If both parties mutually agree on extensions, there's nothing in it that limits how many times extensions, or even how long. If someone is schrewd they can invoke A50 for the sake of satisfying the referendum, then say "we'll do a 999-year exit" (extremely unlikely case, but it sounds like it's a loophole that could be exploited)


An extension need to be agreed to by a unanimous European Council. Any nation for any reason could veto it. I would not count on an extension. http://www.euronews.com/2016/06/24/arti ... explained/
 
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SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1868
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:38 am

sejtam wrote:
As for 'the will of the people': It was (ciminally, IMHO) stupid to allow this referenbdum to decide the longterm future and relationships of the UK with just a simple majority (<2% margin!)

For good reasons, decisions with such wideranging effects usually require much larger majorities (2/3, 3/4)

[...]

I blame this cockup on David Cameron.


I agree with all of that. This whole mess is the result of a stupidly mis-judged attempt to hold power within his own party... and now the UK, the EU and even the global economy have been negatively impacted!

Without wanting to get too political here, the leavers spouted a load of nonsense about the EU and immigration being the root of all evil and everything will magically return to the days of Rule Britannia in a jiffy if we show Johnny Foreigner in Brussels what-for!

Unfortunately the Remain side, while warning about how things could go wrong when leaving, did almost nothing to promote the actual advantages of the EU. This is something I still don't understand... A large part of the voting public is generally too stupid / ignorant to know how the world really works so they think "too much Polish spoken on my high street - that must be why (I mistakenly perceive that) things aren't as good as they used to be. Vote Out!"

Rant over.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:02 pm

Btw, are referendum results around filton and other airbus areas known ?
 
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zeke
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:14 pm

Wonder about the impact on Norwegian, how will not having the Irish AOC impact them ?
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
aviationaware
Posts: 2858
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:29 pm

vfw614 wrote:
A free trade agreement is wholly different from the common market the UK will no longer be part of.


There is nothing keeping HM's government from passing laws that enable passport holders from specific countries to come over without requiring a visa. The US do that. The UK is now in a position to treat people form Western Europe about the same they were treated under EU rule, but locking out people from Eastern Europe who did nothing but reduce wages for everyone. The idea that Brexit shuts any doors at all with the EU is ludicrous, all it does is put control back in London's hands. Control is not synonymous with comprehensive restriction.

The Bremain camp has not failed to point out the advantages of the EU, but it has failed to point out why exactly those advantages can't be had outside the EU - which isn't too hard because there are no reasons the Bremain camp could have fielded in that regard.
Just look at Switzerland to see how you can reap all the benefits without the drawbacks caused by lunatic ideologues and you can see where Britain is headed - into a more prosperous, self directed future. Chapeau UK!
 
oldannyboy
Posts: 2580
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:11 pm

http://www.airbus.com/company/worldwide ... bus-in-uk/

Just posting above link for all those bright and eager Brexit-ers that were desperate to have "their borders back", so that they now pause and think for a minute, seeing that so many have not pondered BEFORE voting it seems... :!:
And obviously hoping that nothing will happen to all those jobs.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1868
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Re: Brexit and inpact on Airbus (and other pan-Euopean companies)

Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:21 pm

Olddog wrote:
Btw, are referendum results around filton and other airbus areas known ?


Bristol (being a city) was 62% remain - probably partly since many people have connections with Airbus. Ironically Filton itself is not in Bristol but is just in South Gloucestershire (the countryside) which was pro-leave. (Also has to do with the number of young people in the city versus a lot of old people in the surrounding villages...)

Edit: earlier I wrote Bristol was about 70% remain since I was going from memory - I've since seen the correct number so thought I'd better change it for accuracy.
Last edited by SomebodyInTLS on Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."

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