UA doesn't do point to point very well. The contract between SAN/ORF is currently occupied by Delta at $248/$364 each way. Due to the large naval presence in both cities, I'm not surprised the contract exists; it is one of the higher PAX count contracts (33,525 yearly passengers, 9th highest out of over 9,000 contracts for fiscal year 2016). However, I doubt UA or any carrier for that matter would make this a point-2-point unless there is a high financial justification. Stranger things have happened, but GSA contracts rarely drive route network decisions.
Ahhh, thank you Plinth'
. I know the contract has belonged to UA at times, but prolly DL holds it most of the time. And thanx to you too, PDX88
, for your input into the discussion.
The actual pax traffic in the market (according to DOT's Tables 1A & 6) averaged 138 PDEW
in 2016 (with a low quarterly of 124 to a high of 149) so it's a good solid, consistent-throughout-the-year market. Considering probable leakage thru WAS, about 100 miles north of ORF, the market should, butts-in-seats-wise, be able to support a year-round nonstop.
However, due to the low yields (as most of the traffic surely is Navy-related) the route has never been served with a nonstop. I do know that SAN is the largest un-served market out of ORF and I would also assume ORF must be very high on SAN's list as well; I realize that does not automatically mean there should be a nonstop. I do know that ORF is high on SAN's 'wishlist' for nonstop domestic service. Again, I repeat that I would think freight might be an important plus for a nonstop on the route.
In any case, I just mentioned it in regards to the UA p-2-p discussion (a real longshot I understand.) Personally, I would more likely expect to see WN, AS or even DL start the route, with those cx not being quite as big a longshot. These days, routes seem to be getting grabbed up by any number of players, so we'll see...
I believe that F9 will not be bringing back the nonstop service between SAN and CLE. That's too bad, because I wanted to make use of it.
I was just trying to piece together an F9 turn-schedule for SAN for April 1, 2018; I've given up. The data has to be teased out of F9.com with a pair of tweezers and I'm getting too old for that stuff! CLE was a challenge, altho I thought perhaps it would carry a later start date, but so far, I've had no luck finding anything.