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flyDTW1992
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:58 pm

fsafsx wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I have listed my predictions for Spirit at Detroit. * means assuming Spirit had plans to fly to this airport.
SEA
PHX
BNA*
STL*
DAB*


How about none? Spirit is done growing at Detroit, its Flints turn to get flights on Spirit. I like Fornaro, he doesn't want to expand Detroit, actually he wants to downsize it. Who cares about Detroit nobody maybe?


Spirit is not building a massive, state-of-the-art hangar at DTW to then turn around and downsize their flight operations there. They're adding dozens of maintenance personnel and investing a lot of money, *because* the majority of their fleet passes through DTW in a given day or two. They have room at DTW, and as long as they can do it profitably there's no indication and no reason they'll stop adding destinations and/or frequencies.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Tue Jul 26, 2016 4:01 pm

fsafsx wrote:
Fornaro obviously sees that there are better places to put his airplanes other than Detroit and thats a fact.


This right here is an assumption and putting words into someone else's prospective. What happens if Spirit does add BNA? They're going to add MCO, FLL, RSW and TPA? Maybe but don't you think DTW deserves a LCC competitor on this route? DTW has a lot of people daily that go to BNA and vice versa, it's a more common connection than you think, a lot of people on DL actually are O&D as opposed to connections, Delta's early morning 737-900 or the occasional 757-200 is all O&D and that flight is always full. Oh, and I realized DL added more flights to BNA, and Southwest is going to fly 2 daily 737-800;s so an upgrade from the 733 and 737...
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fsafsx
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Tue Jul 26, 2016 4:04 pm

flyDTW1992 wrote:
fsafsx wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I have listed my predictions for Spirit at Detroit. * means assuming Spirit had plans to fly to this airport.
SEA
PHX
BNA*
STL*
DAB*


How about none? Spirit is done growing at Detroit, its Flints turn to get flights on Spirit. I like Fornaro, he doesn't want to expand Detroit, actually he wants to downsize it. Who cares about Detroit nobody maybe?


Spirit is not building a massive, state-of-the-art hangar at DTW to then turn around and downsize their flight operations there. They're adding dozens of maintenance personnel and investing a lot of money, *because* the majority of their fleet passes through DTW in a given day or two. They have room at DTW, and as long as they can do it profitably there's no indication and no reason they'll stop adding destinations and/or frequencies.


Well there are other places I would consider before Detroit and I think thats what Spirit is trying to accomplish.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Tue Jul 26, 2016 6:00 pm

fsafsx wrote:
How about none? Spirit is done growing at Detroit, its Flints turn to get flights on Spirit. I like Fornaro, he doesn't want to expand Detroit, actually he wants to downsize it. Who cares about Detroit nobody maybe?


I realize you're probably a kid, but there's no evidence that NK wants to downsize DTW nor any reason to believe NK wants to inaugurate service from FNT.

NK continues to grow at DTW; FNT is a limited market. It's possible NK may offer a flight to MCO or FLL at FNT to supplement its services at DTW, but the crux of Metro Detroit isn't driving to FNT when there's established low-cost service (including NK!) at DTW. Filling a 320 to BOS, DEN, PHL or LAX from FNT would be incredibly challenging to say the least. Heck, UA's struggling with its once-daily ERJ service to EWR -- loads are poor and the flight is a favorite to be cancelled
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Tue Jul 26, 2016 6:58 pm

compensateme wrote:


I realize you're probably a kid, but there's no evidence that NK wants to downsize DTW nor any reason to believe NK wants to inaugurate service from FNT.

NK continues to grow at DTW...[/quote]

Good point! The loads on NK's MCO-DTW flights are ridiculously high. It's always full and for most parts in oversell situations. I think that NK can definitely grow into SEA and PHX, maybe roll out a new BNA flight too.
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hjulicher
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:47 pm

Can anyone comment on the success or failure of DTW-MUC. It's seasonal now, will it be coming back next year or is there too much capacity on the North Atlantic?

1. If DL added this flight for the business ties (as mentioned in their press release) why is it summer seasonal only? Business traffic is strongest in the shoulder months (Mar-May) and (Sep-Nov).
2. DL choose to serve the route with a 764. There are smaller aircraft in the DL fleet, so why the large aircraft type?
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:29 pm

hjulicher wrote:
Can anyone comment on the success or failure of DTW-MUC. It's seasonal now, will it be coming back next year or is there too much capacity on the North Atlantic?

1. If DL added this flight for the business ties (as mentioned in their press release) why is it summer seasonal only? Business traffic is strongest in the shoulder months (Mar-May) and (Sep-Nov).
2. DL choose to serve the route with a 764. There are smaller aircraft in the DL fleet, so why the large aircraft type?


VERY successful. The loads have been spectacular so far. The goal for DL is to make it go year round so hopefully this summer proves to them they can make it happen.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:31 pm

Assuming WN axed FNT because of the poor performance, DTW would gain more MDW, gain a seasonal TPA and RSW while maintaining a once weekly MCO flight. What can you see WN doing in this case? Full time TPA and RSW? Cut them and make room for daily MCO?
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reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:32 am

flymco753 wrote:
VERY successful. The loads have been spectacular so far.


How do you know it's been successful? It's good that the flights are full; do you have data that shows that?
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:54 pm

reasonable wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
VERY successful. The loads have been spectacular so far.


How do you know it's been successful? It's good that the flights are full; do you have data that shows that?


I do but only because for a few days of the week I work with this flight. I commute to DTW from MCO.
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lavalampluva
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:40 pm

flymco753 wrote:

VERY successful. The loads have been spectacular so far. The goal for DL is to make it go year round so hopefully this summer proves to them they can make it happen.


For the flight today July 27, 2016 there are 13 First Class, and 91 Economy seats available. Not sure that is a very good load for a 767-4. While that is just a small example, do you have evidence for the load factors for that flight?
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:47 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
flymco753 wrote:

VERY successful. The loads have been spectacular so far. The goal for DL is to make it go year round so hopefully this summer proves to them they can make it happen.


For the flight today July 27, 2016 there are 13 First Class, and 91 Economy seats available. Not sure that is a very good load for a 767-4. While that is just a small example, do you have evidence for the load factors for that flight?


It would help if I checked it before commenting... :shock: *digs hole deeper and deeper*
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fsafsx
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:51 pm

flymco753 wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
flymco753 wrote:

VERY successful. The loads have been spectacular so far. The goal for DL is to make it go year round so hopefully this summer proves to them they can make it happen.


For the flight today July 27, 2016 there are 13 First Class, and 91 Economy seats available. Not sure that is a very good load for a 767-4. While that is just a small example, do you have evidence for the load factors for that flight?


It would help if I checked it before commenting... :shock: *digs hole deeper and deeper*


How does it feel to be wrong Mr Delta I commute from Orlando to Detroit nonsense. Do you even work for Delta? Better yet you're probably a ramp rat.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:38 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
For the flight today July 27, 2016 there are 13 First Class, and 91 Economy seats available. Not sure that is a very good load for a 767-4. While that is just a small example, do you have evidence for the load factors for that flight?


I take it you pulled the seat maps and counted the empty seats. It's not uncommon on longhaul flights for people (tour groups, etc.) to receive their seat assignment after they've checked in. Do not be deceived -- the LAX-DTW flight I was on last week showed 9 unassigned F and 133 Y seats but was actually oversold. An extreme example (hello, Economy Basic) yet but an example nonetheless.

That said, I would agree DL likely has too much capacity into MUC.

flymco753 wrote:
Assuming WN axed FNT because of the poor performance, DTW would gain more MDW, gain a seasonal TPA and RSW while maintaining a once weekly MCO flight. What can you see WN doing in this case? Full time TPA and RSW? Cut them and make room for daily MCO?


If WN whacked FNT (2-3 flights per day to MDW, seasonal weekly MCO), it's not going to have any impact on its DTW operations. In May, WN managed only a 56% LF at FNT.

And while the schedule has diversified -- gone are the dozen flights a day to MDW, replaced with service to PHX, LAS, BWI, etc. -- WN has been stagnant at DTW for over two decades. Recall when WN lead the expansion of Concourse A in the L.C. Smith Terminal, with plans to "double" service from DTW. The physical expansion of the terminal happened (WN was reimburse with PFC) but the service expansion never came.

WN briefly tried twice daily DTW/MCO nine years ago, during the height of the local downturn. The service was a colossal flop, the route was quickly dropped and became a $39 mainstain via DING for the remainder of its life. (And in spite of the $39 fares, loads were still terrible!) While airlines generally have short memories, WN doesn't seem to have forgotten about DTW/MCO -- subsequent seasonal service was heavily reduced and WN quickly dumped FL's twice-daily flights.
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klakzky123
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:13 pm

Does the Detroit metro have the requisite leisure/tourism base to justify some of these hypotheticals? I get the dissatisfaction with Delta but I think airlines have repeatedly tested the Detroit market with largely the same results. Detroit's O&D base is heavily skewed to corporate travelers. Especially with international travel, its hard to envision enough traffic to justify some of these proposals. I could see Condor or Icelandair coming in with a season route to test the market but that's about it. On the domestic side, maybe AA starts flying to LAX.

DTW is a Delta fortress hub for better or worse and that isn't changing. Delta cornered the corporate market which leaves everyone else with a lower yield O&D tourism base in a city. Plus Detroit doesn't really attract tourists either.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:36 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
Does the Detroit metro have the requisite leisure/tourism base to justify some of these hypotheticals? I get the dissatisfaction with Delta but I think airlines have repeatedly tested the Detroit market with largely the same results. Detroit's O&D base is heavily skewed to corporate travelers. Especially with international travel, its hard to envision enough traffic to justify some of these proposals. I could see Condor or Icelandair coming in with a season route to test the market but that's about it. On the domestic side, maybe AA starts flying to LAX.

DTW is a Delta fortress hub for better or worse and that isn't changing. Delta cornered the corporate market which leaves everyone else with a lower yield O&D tourism base in a city. Plus Detroit doesn't really attract tourists either.



Well put but the fact is there is a lot of outbound international traffic from DTW. So it might not be so much a destination but an origin of international travel. Yes we do need Icelandair her for these price sensitive people who want to travel home with their families to Europe. I just had a friend who flew out of Windsor because there were no reasonable fares to be had out of DTW to Europe and this is an area the WCAA totally ignores. I think MAN fits in with the current Delta strategy but that's about it.
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:34 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
Does the Detroit metro have the requisite leisure/tourism base to justify some of these hypotheticals? I get the dissatisfaction with Delta but I think airlines have repeatedly tested the Detroit market with largely the same results. Detroit's O&D base is heavily skewed to corporate travelers. Especially with international travel, its hard to envision enough traffic to justify some of these proposals. I could see Condor or Icelandair coming in with a season route to test the market but that's about it. On the domestic side, maybe AA starts flying to LAX.

DTW is a Delta fortress hub for better or worse and that isn't changing. Delta cornered the corporate market which leaves everyone else with a lower yield O&D tourism base in a city. Plus Detroit doesn't really attract tourists either.


Metro Detroit isn't dead, nor does everybody live in dilapidated $1 homes. Come visit us sometime :). Traffic composition at DTW is very similar to that of ATL (with less volume obviously), but look at the Atlantic machine DL's built there -- even though the crux of the consumer base is spending hours of additional time connecting via a gateway that's out of the way. It humors me how many people on these forums ponder why DL hasn't started ATL-LUX but will bash the thought of DL attempting seasonal DTW-DUB/MAD.

[quote="klm617"there is a lot of outbound international traffic from DTW. So it might not be so much a destination but an origin of international travel. Yes we do need Icelandair her for these price sensitive people who want to travel home with their families to Europe. I just had a friend who flew out of Windsor because there were no reasonable fares to be had out of DTW to Europe and this is an area the WCAA totally ignores. I think MAN fits in with the current Delta strategy but that's about it.[/quote]

We need to get off the comparisons to YQG/YYZ. YYZ is basically Canada's NYC equivalent and will always have a level of competition many larger US cities could only dream of + the weak CAD is making matters worse. So yes, you can fly YYZ-CDG for ~$700 this summer but don't expect anything similar at DTW and don't blame DL for that.
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klakzky123
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:35 pm

klm617 wrote:

Well put but the fact is there is a lot of outbound international traffic from DTW. So it might not be so much a destination but an origin of international travel. Yes we do need Icelandair her for these price sensitive people who want to travel home with their families to Europe. I just had a friend who flew out of Windsor because there were no reasonable fares to be had out of DTW to Europe and this is an area the WCAA totally ignores. I think MAN fits in with the current Delta strategy but that's about it.


I largely agree. I think some sort of pressure on Delta would be nice. I think one of them needs to test a seasonal route to see how viable it is. Either Delta will try and do some sort of match or more likely they'll just ignore any tourism centric competition. The rise of long haul LCCs has been great for travel and at some point they'll start to make their way to markets like Detroit but it will take time. The long haul LCC market is so new that everyone is still trying to figure out what they're doing.

And to me the crime isn't the lack of European options, its the lack of Caribbean destinations. People in Detroit are like everyone else in the northern part of the US. They flock to warm North American destinations in the winter. Spirit offers a Cancun flight but that's about it. Otherwise you're stuck paying and arm and a leg to fly non-stop on Delta to an international destination in the western hemisphere. Compare that to MSP that has five airlines that fly to Orlando and Phoenix year around. In addition to that there's Sun Country who more or less focuses exclusively on leisure destinations so a Caribbean trip can be substantially cheaper than a Delta booking. Hell, Delta flights to the Caribbean can cost as much as a Delta flight to Europe which is just maddening. I get platinum medallion through my work and even I won't touch Delta for leisure travel. They're easily hundreds of dollars more than anyone else.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:01 pm

I can think of several options as to why I know MCO will grow more by 2020.

1) If DL builds a larger presence in ORD like they plan, and DL adds an nonstop ORD-MCO, United will add 1x daily DTW-MCO to retaliate. (Believe it or not, DTW is MCO's second largest market next to ATL)

2) Southwest will axe Flint and MCO flights as well as TPA and RSW will move to DTW, MCO will go 1x daily.

3) JetBlue will take advantage of the competition they will provide against DL and add 1 or 2x daily MCO. Keep in mind PDEW between both cities is on a rise according to the statistics.

4) Frontier will add 2x daily, Spirit will retaliate and add 4x daily.

These are the only possibilities I could see happening with MCO and DTW. If MSP can stand 5x daily DL, 3x daily Sun Country, 1x Spirit, 1x Frontier and 1x Southwest in the winter months, DTW certainly can have 7x DL, 3x NK, 1x F9, 1x B6 and 1x WN. While maybe DL going 6x, NK 2x, F9 WFS, B6 1x and WN 1x in the summer.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:03 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
Compare that to MSP that has five airlines that fly to Orlando and Phoenix year around.


We could definitely use SY in Detroit. MSP has more flights than DTW to MCO in the winter and that's not okay considering Michigan holds a lot larger of a population in Central FL alone. (a lot of people on my street are from Detroit and the surrounding areas)
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:50 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

Well put but the fact is there is a lot of outbound international traffic from DTW. So it might not be so much a destination but an origin of international travel. Yes we do need Icelandair her for these price sensitive people who want to travel home with their families to Europe. I just had a friend who flew out of Windsor because there were no reasonable fares to be had out of DTW to Europe and this is an area the WCAA totally ignores. I think MAN fits in with the current Delta strategy but that's about it.


I largely agree. I think some sort of pressure on Delta would be nice. I think one of them needs to test a seasonal route to see how viable it is. Either Delta will try and do some sort of match or more likely they'll just ignore any tourism centric competition. The rise of long haul LCCs has been great for travel and at some point they'll start to make their way to markets like Detroit but it will take time. The long haul LCC market is so new that everyone is still trying to figure out what they're doing.

And to me the crime isn't the lack of European options, its the lack of Caribbean destinations. People in Detroit are like everyone else in the northern part of the US. They flock to warm North American destinations in the winter. Spirit offers a Cancun flight but that's about it. Otherwise you're stuck paying and arm and a leg to fly non-stop on Delta to an international destination in the western hemisphere. Compare that to MSP that has five airlines that fly to Orlando and Phoenix year around. In addition to that there's Sun Country who more or less focuses exclusively on leisure destinations so a Caribbean trip can be substantially cheaper than a Delta booking. Hell, Delta flights to the Caribbean can cost as much as a Delta flight to Europe which is just maddening. I get platinum medallion through my work and even I won't touch Delta for leisure travel. They're easily hundreds of dollars more than anyone else.


I can get on board with that too. Last April I needed to fly from DTW-TPA and was quoted over $900 in coach but got USAirways foe just over $500 that to me is price gauging and it happens more often than not with Delta so for those of you who say I keep coming back to Delta that's simply not true. This kind of stuff needs to be addressed by the WCAA which it is grossly failing on.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:55 pm

compensateme wrote:
klakzky123 wrote:
Does the Detroit metro have the requisite leisure/tourism base to justify some of these hypotheticals? I get the dissatisfaction with Delta but I think airlines have repeatedly tested the Detroit market with largely the same results. Detroit's O&D base is heavily skewed to corporate travelers. Especially with international travel, its hard to envision enough traffic to justify some of these proposals. I could see Condor or Icelandair coming in with a season route to test the market but that's about it. On the domestic side, maybe AA starts flying to LAX.

DTW is a Delta fortress hub for better or worse and that isn't changing. Delta cornered the corporate market which leaves everyone else with a lower yield O&D tourism base in a city. Plus Detroit doesn't really attract tourists either.


Metro Detroit isn't dead, nor does everybody live in dilapidated $1 homes. Come visit us sometime :). Traffic composition at DTW is very similar to that of ATL (with less volume obviously), but look at the Atlantic machine DL's built there -- even though the crux of the consumer base is spending hours of additional time connecting via a gateway that's out of the way. It humors me how many people on these forums ponder why DL hasn't started ATL-LUX but will bash the thought of DL attempting seasonal DTW-DUB/MAD.

[quote="klm617"there is a lot of outbound international traffic from DTW. So it might not be so much a destination but an origin of international travel. Yes we do need Icelandair her for these price sensitive people who want to travel home with their families to Europe. I just had a friend who flew out of Windsor because there were no reasonable fares to be had out of DTW to Europe and this is an area the WCAA totally ignores. I think MAN fits in with the current Delta strategy but that's about it.


We need to get off the comparisons to YQG/YYZ. YYZ is basically Canada's NYC equivalent and will always have a level of competition many larger US cities could only dream of + the weak CAD is making matters worse. So yes, you can fly YYZ-CDG for ~$700 this summer but don't expect anything similar at DTW and don't blame DL for that.[/quote]

Very on point my last flight was ANC-DTW and after booking ANC-SEA-DTW a month before my flight I got a schedule change and guess what my routing was changed to ANC-ATL-DTW adding almost 2 hours of unnecessary flight time to my trip I wasn't happy to say the least.
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deltal1011man
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:01 pm

klm617 wrote:


But when Delta operated flights to AMM they were routed DTW-JFK-AMM I thought it was interesting as at that point they were doing whatever they could to help RJ fail but in the end Delta dropped AMM as a destination. I think in the case of LOT most poles indentify with that brand so they would have the upper hand no matter what Delta tried to do to hurt their loads. I think a LOT flight to DTW would have more of an impact on LH rather than DL.

So Delta started a flight before they even had a DTW hub to make a DTW carrier fail?



Seriously?


And this kids is another example why meth is bad for you....... :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
maxbaby01
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:38 pm

I don't think there's going to be expansion to England anytime soon. Delta is downgrading their flight to LHR to a 76W.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:39 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
klm617 wrote:


But when Delta operated flights to AMM they were routed DTW-JFK-AMM I thought it was interesting as at that point they were doing whatever they could to help RJ fail but in the end Delta dropped AMM as a destination. I think in the case of LOT most poles indentify with that brand so they would have the upper hand no matter what Delta tried to do to hurt their loads. I think a LOT flight to DTW would have more of an impact on LH rather than DL.

So Delta started a flight before they even had a DTW hub to make a DTW carrier fail?



Seriously?


And this kids is another example why meth is bad for you....... :lol: :lol: :lol:



Are you kidding me talk about facts DTW-JFK-AMM was operated after the merger with Northwest Delta served AMM from 2008 to 2011 well after it made DTW its hub and the AMM flight had a thru flight number continuing onto DTW from JFK with a change of equipment. So there are real facts for somebody who craves them so much.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:13 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I can think of several options as to why I know MCO will grow more by 2020.

1) If DL builds a larger presence in ORD like they plan, and DL adds an nonstop ORD-MCO, United will add 1x daily DTW-MCO to retaliate. (Believe it or not, DTW is MCO's second largest market next to ATL)


You're overstating the importance of MCO. MCO is the second largest market from DTW including flow passengers but not by exclusively O/D. While DTW has historically been a top-5 market from MCO, yields have always been poor - the route has featured a plethora of LCC and charter airlines via the years, and will continue to do so.

And while DL might be interested in operating a few more strategic flights from ORD, the scope of "DL's interest" is overblown on here. No way is DL going to go against UA, AA & WN... it just isn't going to win.
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alfa164
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:50 am

klm617 wrote:
...so for those of you who say I keep coming back to Delta that's simply not true..


klm617 wrote:
Very on point my last flight was ANC-DTW and after booking ANC-SEA-DTW a month before my flight I got a schedule change


Like you said in a previous post, facts don't matter to you... ;)
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reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:31 am

klm617 wrote:
So there are real facts for somebody who craves them so much.


This thread is getting childish again. We should use data whenever possible to back up their ideas. It's not sufficient to be a little boy about how much you love the big airplanes and the exciting airport to engage in a thoughtful conversation.

I want to suggest that the fact that MCO—anywhere in Florida, really—is the #2 market from DTW completely illustrates the challenge to DTW and the WCAA: a flying public that doesn't create a very sophisticated market. Orlando is little more than a come-one-come-all tourist mass market destination. Now, this is where data would be so helpful. What are O&D figures for routes like SEA, SFO, SJC, AUS, IAH, MSP, BOS, WAS, YYZ, LHR, PVG, HKG, YVR, PDX — that is, cities that are thriving because they have built sustainable and/or innovation-oriented economies (which often demonstrate the most progressive ideas in urbanism, regionalism, and social policy). Does anybody know where to find such O&D data?

As a native I hate to say it, but until metro Detroit and Michigan's population of tweakers and lethargic complainers are curious enough to seek much beyond Florida, DTW will always be a market lucrative only for its (substantial) auto and niche industries traffic.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:03 pm

reasonable wrote:
klm617 wrote:
So there are real facts for somebody who craves them so much.


This thread is getting childish again. We should use data whenever possible to back up their ideas. It's not sufficient to be a little boy about how much you love the big airplanes and the exciting airport to engage in a thoughtful conversation.

I want to suggest that the fact that MCO—anywhere in Florida, really—is the #2 market from DTW completely illustrates the challenge to DTW and the WCAA: a flying public that doesn't create a very sophisticated market. Orlando is little more than a come-one-come-all tourist mass market destination. Now, this is where data would be so helpful. What are O&D figures for routes like SEA, SFO, SJC, AUS, IAH, MSP, BOS, WAS, YYZ, LHR, PVG, HKG, YVR, PDX — that is, cities that are thriving because they have built sustainable and/or innovation-oriented economies (which often demonstrate the most progressive ideas in urbanism, regionalism, and social policy). Does anybody know where to find such O&D data?

As a native I hate to say it, but until metro Detroit and Michigan's population of tweakers and lethargic complainers are curious enough to seek much beyond Florida, DTW will always be a market lucrative only for its (substantial) auto and niche industries traffic.


Yes, postings like this are what make this childish. As I've already mentioned, MCO is not the #2 O/D market from DTW, nor is ATL #1 -- the other poster is citing routes carried by total traffic (includes flow).

There might be one person whining in this thread, but it continues to amaze me that we can't have a discussion about DTW without people who know nothing about the community or area chiming in with their two cents anyway... usually the same people who will tell us why AA will never start DTW-LAX, and that DTW is lucky to have any service to LAX at all... and then in their next post ponder whine that DL hasn't started ORD-LAX or that ATL-Gatorscreek GA is always full on the 717 and needs 380 service...
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:39 pm

I'm not sure how to look up Intl. numbers but I found the domestic numbers.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:43 pm

MCO/DTW PDEW

Q1: 2262
Q2: 1967
Q3: 1469
Q4: 2025
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Cubsrule
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:01 pm

compensateme wrote:
reasonable wrote:
klm617 wrote:
So there are real facts for somebody who craves them so much.
Yes, postings like this are what make this childish. As I've already mentioned, MCO is not the #2 O/D market from DTW, nor is ATL #1 -- the other poster is citing routes carried by total traffic (includes flow).


I think MCO is number two or number three behind NYC and perhaps SFL at least in the winter, actually. It was about 1,000 PDEW in Q415. Most of the Florida numbers are surprisingly large (RSW was 500 PDEW in the same quarter). It tails off a bit in the summer (980 PDEW in Q215) but not as much as I expected before examining the statistics.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:18 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
compensateme wrote:
reasonable wrote:
Yes, postings like this are what make this childish. As I've already mentioned, MCO is not the #2 O/D market from DTW, nor is ATL #1 -- the other poster is citing routes carried by total traffic (includes flow).


I think MCO is number two or number three behind NYC and perhaps SFL at least in the winter, actually. It was about 1,000 PDEW in Q415. Most of the Florida numbers are surprisingly large (RSW was 500 PDEW in the same quarter). It tails off a bit in the summer (980 PDEW in Q215) but not as much as I expected before examining the statistics.


DTW's RSW flights really cut off. They cut it down to 2x daily 757 and M90. MCO on the other hand, the capacity is downgraded from 7x 757-300's to 6x 757-200's.
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fsafsx
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:04 pm

compensateme wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I can think of several options as to why I know MCO will grow more by 2020.

1) If DL builds a larger presence in ORD like they plan, and DL adds an nonstop ORD-MCO, United will add 1x daily DTW-MCO to retaliate. (Believe it or not, DTW is MCO's second largest market next to ATL)


You're overstating the importance of MCO. MCO is the second largest market from DTW including flow passengers but not by exclusively O/D. While DTW has historically been a top-5 market from MCO, yields have always been poor - the route has featured a plethora of LCC and charter airlines via the years, and will continue to do so.

And while DL might be interested in operating a few more strategic flights from ORD, the scope of "DL's interest" is overblown on here. No way is DL going to go against UA, AA & WN... it just isn't going to win.


Wow he just made you look dumb Mr flymco753. Please do enlighten us on why Detroit deserves all of these Orlando flights. Oh and I don't appreciate and strongly disagree with you about Southwest axing Flint flights. We even have a good passenger number of 332 passengers daily in the quarter 1 and that can justify multiple nonstop flights.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:06 pm

klm617 wrote:
klakzky123 wrote:
Does the Detroit metro have the requisite leisure/tourism base to justify some of these hypotheticals? I get the dissatisfaction with Delta but I think airlines have repeatedly tested the Detroit market with largely the same results. Detroit's O&D base is heavily skewed to corporate travelers. Especially with international travel, its hard to envision enough traffic to justify some of these proposals. I could see Condor or Icelandair coming in with a season route to test the market but that's about it. On the domestic side, maybe AA starts flying to LAX.

DTW is a Delta fortress hub for better or worse and that isn't changing. Delta cornered the corporate market which leaves everyone else with a lower yield O&D tourism base in a city. Plus Detroit doesn't really attract tourists either.



Well put but the fact is there is a lot of outbound international traffic from DTW. So it might not be so much a destination but an origin of international travel. Yes we do need Icelandair her for these price sensitive people who want to travel home with their families to Europe. I just had a friend who flew out of Windsor because there were no reasonable fares to be had out of DTW to Europe and this is an area the WCAA totally ignores. I think MAN fits in with the current Delta strategy but that's about it.


Why do you think that Manchester would fit the strategy? Also why compare Windsor to Detroit? They are both separate markets of their own.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:15 pm

fsafsx wrote:
compensateme wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I can think of several options as to why I know MCO will grow more by 2020.

1) If DL builds a larger presence in ORD like they plan, and DL adds an nonstop ORD-MCO, United will add 1x daily DTW-MCO to retaliate. (Believe it or not, DTW is MCO's second largest market next to ATL)


You're overstating the importance of MCO. MCO is the second largest market from DTW including flow passengers but not by exclusively O/D. While DTW has historically been a top-5 market from MCO, yields have always been poor - the route has featured a plethora of LCC and charter airlines via the years, and will continue to do so.

And while DL might be interested in operating a few more strategic flights from ORD, the scope of "DL's interest" is overblown on here. No way is DL going to go against UA, AA & WN... it just isn't going to win.


Wow he just made you look dumb Mr flymco753. Please do enlighten us on why Detroit deserves all of these Orlando flights. Oh and I don't appreciate and strongly disagree with you about Southwest axing Flint flights. We even have a good passenger number of 332 passengers daily in the quarter 1 and that can justify multiple nonstop flights.


I hope you realize that the number you're saying in Q1 during the winter months is only 332 pax daily, and DTW is nearing 3,000 that there is no margin whatsoever. The number you've provided me is 2 737-700's.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:34 pm

fsafsx wrote:
klm617 wrote:
klakzky123 wrote:
Does the Detroit metro have the requisite leisure/tourism base to justify some of these hypotheticals? I get the dissatisfaction with Delta but I think airlines have repeatedly tested the Detroit market with largely the same results. Detroit's O&D base is heavily skewed to corporate travelers. Especially with international travel, its hard to envision enough traffic to justify some of these proposals. I could see Condor or Icelandair coming in with a season route to test the market but that's about it. On the domestic side, maybe AA starts flying to LAX.

DTW is a Delta fortress hub for better or worse and that isn't changing. Delta cornered the corporate market which leaves everyone else with a lower yield O&D tourism base in a city. Plus Detroit doesn't really attract tourists either.



Well put but the fact is there is a lot of outbound international traffic from DTW. So it might not be so much a destination but an origin of international travel. Yes we do need Icelandair her for these price sensitive people who want to travel home with their families to Europe. I just had a friend who flew out of Windsor because there were no reasonable fares to be had out of DTW to Europe and this is an area the WCAA totally ignores. I think MAN fits in with the current Delta strategy but that's about it.


Why do you think that Manchester would fit the strategy? Also why compare Windsor to Detroit? They are both separate markets of their own.



MAN would work because of their close ties with Virgin and the fact that Virgin is building up MAN so a codeshare to Detroit would expand their reach greatly. I see the Detroit market as DTW/DET/FNT and YQG and to a lessor extent YZR
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
fsafsx
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:05 pm

flymco753 wrote:
fsafsx wrote:
compensateme wrote:

You're overstating the importance of MCO. MCO is the second largest market from DTW including flow passengers but not by exclusively O/D. While DTW has historically been a top-5 market from MCO, yields have always been poor - the route has featured a plethora of LCC and charter airlines via the years, and will continue to do so.

And while DL might be interested in operating a few more strategic flights from ORD, the scope of "DL's interest" is overblown on here. No way is DL going to go against UA, AA & WN... it just isn't going to win.


Wow he just made you look dumb Mr flymco753. Please do enlighten us on why Detroit deserves all of these Orlando flights. Oh and I don't appreciate and strongly disagree with you about Southwest axing Flint flights. We even have a good passenger number of 332 passengers daily in the quarter 1 and that can justify multiple nonstop flights.


I hope you realize that the number you're saying in Q1 during the winter months is only 332 pax daily, and DTW is nearing 3,000 that there is no margin whatsoever. The number you've provided me is 2 737-700's.


Your point please?
 
fsafsx
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:08 pm

klm617 wrote:
fsafsx wrote:
klm617 wrote:


Well put but the fact is there is a lot of outbound international traffic from DTW. So it might not be so much a destination but an origin of international travel. Yes we do need Icelandair her for these price sensitive people who want to travel home with their families to Europe. I just had a friend who flew out of Windsor because there were no reasonable fares to be had out of DTW to Europe and this is an area the WCAA totally ignores. I think MAN fits in with the current Delta strategy but that's about it.


Why do you think that Manchester would fit the strategy? Also why compare Windsor to Detroit? They are both separate markets of their own.



MAN would work because of their close ties with Virgin and the fact that Virgin is building up MAN so a codeshare to Detroit would expand their reach greatly. I see the Detroit market as DTW/DET/FNT and YQG and to a lessor extent YZR


Yes they have close ties but theres several other markets that MAN could use other than Detroit.
 
David_itl
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:47 pm

fsafsx wrote:
Yes they have close ties but theres several other markets that MAN could use other than Detroit.


The only routes to America that MAN was targetting specifically for launch in the next 2 years were IAH, SAN and DTW. There are 8 others long-haul route out there for MAN to get over the finishing line, one of which is expected to start in March and one to be announced in March. IAH is in the bag, SAN is leisure based and expected for Thomas Cook but DTW should be more business related so VS/DL comes in and this route would benefit from the codeshares with BE ex-MAN The only other routes I can think MAN is after in the States are DFW, CLT and LAX - and I'm saying the latter even though we have Thomas Cook operating as there's no harm in a VS/DL operating 2 or 3 weekly themselves so they could then have 5 or 6 weekly to the West Coast.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:47 am

klm617 wrote:
Are you kidding me talk about facts DTW-JFK-AMM was operated after the merger with Northwest Delta served AMM from 2008 to 2011 well after it made DTW its hub

wrong again. The merger was announced in April or may of 08. JFK-AMN started may or June 08 but you can't possibly think DL announced the route post merger. It was announced in SEP/OCT ball park like DL did every year for its new TATL flights. (hopefully something Ed brings back vs the randomness of it now)


klm617 wrote:
and the AMM flight had a thru flight number continuing onto DTW from JFK with a change of equipment.

okay and are you going to get to a point or what? Willing to bet every single flight number DL has from DTW is shared with another route probably from another hub. DL is simply too large (and codeshares so much) to be able to use a flight number once a day.
Your lack of knowledge of basic airline operations fundamentals is simply amazing to me.


klm617 wrote:
So there are real facts for somebody who craves them so much.

A fact is not posting a bunch of info that is completely wrong. Google "fact definition" if you need too.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Fri Jul 29, 2016 1:59 pm

fsafsx wrote:
Your point please?


Do you have any facts or constructive arguments to add to this thread?

Even if you're a teenager, I can't understand why you're aggressively bashing DTW in favor of FNT -- the two aren't comparable; DTW is a large hub, FNT is a small spoke station. DTW's local traffic levels have rebounded since the Great Recession, FNT has been in decline for over 10 years. In fact, FNT's on pace to finish the year with 30%(!!!) fewer enplanements than in 2005. Nor does the future look bright -- WN's LF to MDW is in the mid-50s, with substantially lower fares than to DTW. I'm hearing that UA has been averaging 10-20 passengers on its new service to EWR, which seems to be validified by the fact that 20% of the flights were cancelled in the first month. And for the second half of this year, AA, UA, DL and WN are scheduling slightly fewer flights into the airport than they did last.

The demographics of the greater Flint area can barely justify air service -- there's very little business traffic and the surrounding region is generally poor. FNT's own research shows that only a sliver of its passengers come from the Flint-area -- the lion's share are from the Northern Detroit suburbs, Lansing, Saginaw and even Ann Arbor areas. They sought refuge from high fares amongst their local airports; it's no coincidence that after DTW was able to land FL, traffic starting falling from FNT.

I live closest to FNT and try to travel from there as much as practical, but let's face it -- it's best days are behind us. WN is likely to end service, DL will likely respond by shrinking service (if fares go up at FNT, people will naturally return to DTW/LAN/MBS) and the future will likely be a handful of RJ plus Alligant.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:09 pm

compensateme wrote:
fsafsx wrote:
Your point please?


Do you have any facts or constructive arguments to add to this thread?

Even if you're a teenager, I can't understand why you're aggressively bashing DTW in favor of FNT -- the two aren't comparable; DTW is a large hub, FNT is a small spoke station. DTW's local traffic levels have rebounded since the Great Recession, FNT has been in decline for over 10 years. In fact, FNT's on pace to finish the year with 30%(!!!) fewer enplanements than in 2005. Nor does the future look bright -- WN's LF to MDW is in the mid-50s, with substantially lower fares than to DTW. I'm hearing that UA has been averaging 10-20 passengers on its new service to EWR, which seems to be validified by the fact that 20% of the flights were cancelled in the first month. And for the second half of this year, AA, UA, DL and WN are scheduling slightly fewer flights into the airport than they did last.

The demographics of the greater Flint area can barely justify air service -- there's very little business traffic and the surrounding region is generally poor. FNT's own research shows that only a sliver of its passengers come from the Flint-area -- the lion's share are from the Northern Detroit suburbs, Lansing, Saginaw and even Ann Arbor areas. They sought refuge from high fares amongst their local airports; it's no coincidence that after DTW was able to land FL, traffic starting falling from FNT.


I live closest to FNT and try to travel from there as much as practical, but let's face it -- it's best days are behind us. WN is likely to end service, DL will likely respond by shrinking service (if fares go up at FNT, people will naturally return to DTW/LAN/MBS) and the future will likely be a handful of RJ plus Alligant.



I think a couple of things have hurt Flint as far as enplanements. Delta dropping Detroit flights and the take over of AirTran by Southwest. There are many destinations that are no longer accessible from Flint on Delta due to the end of the Detroit flights so people just drive to DTW to reach those points in the Eastern half of the US that you could reach from Flint via connection but Delta is forcing those passengers to drive to Detroit also with the limited Flights Delta offers at Flint now give on far less flexibility as far as choice so it's worth the drive to Detroit to have all the flexibility in the world and well Southwest has no where near the amount of loyalty in the Flint market as AirTran did. But I agree the glory days of Flint are gone. I also think if the UA flight would have been times better to be able to connect to the international flights at Newark it might have fared a bit better also fares are not cheaper out of flight any more every time I compare and the fare from Flint is always higher I live an hour from either airport but love to fly from Flint when the price and schedule is fits.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:13 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Are you kidding me talk about facts DTW-JFK-AMM was operated after the merger with Northwest Delta served AMM from 2008 to 2011 well after it made DTW its hub

wrong again. The merger was announced in April or may of 08. JFK-AMN started may or June 08 but you can't possibly think DL announced the route post merger. It was announced in SEP/OCT ball park like DL did every year for its new TATL flights. (hopefully something Ed brings back vs the randomness of it now)


klm617 wrote:
and the AMM flight had a thru flight number continuing onto DTW from JFK with a change of equipment.

okay and are you going to get to a point or what? Willing to bet every single flight number DL has from DTW is shared with another route probably from another hub. DL is simply too large (and codeshares so much) to be able to use a flight number once a day.
Your lack of knowledge of basic airline operations fundamentals is simply amazing to me.


klm617 wrote:
So there are real facts for somebody who craves them so much.

A fact is not posting a bunch of info that is completely wrong. Google "fact definition" if you need too.



Show me facts that Delta didn't add the DTW tag onto its AMM-JFK flight so that it would show up in the reservation system to attract passengers away from the RJ's DTW-AMM flights. Otherwise my point is a valid as yours.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:03 pm

I have made a recent observation regarding Spirit. I've read multiple sources and multiple opinions and it appears maybe Spirit's fuel in Detroit has ran out. Fornaro wants to fly routes that don't directly compete with the US3, he wants to fly to medium sized markets like CAK, IND, MCI as opposed to DTW, DFW, LAS and what not. This is obviously going to make it more challenging for the WCAA to plead their case.

The recent EWR adds is an example, One of the largest domestic markets from DTW without LCC service is EWR...why didn't NK take up this opportunity? Mr. Fornaro seems to be transforming Spirit into AirTran #2 and I highly disagree with some of his opinions.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Fri Jul 29, 2016 10:22 pm

Fri 20JAN17 NK operations;

DTW-LGA 2x A320
DTW-PHL 1x A320
DTW-BWI 1x A320
DTW-ATL 2x A320
DTW-MCO 2x A321, A320
DTW-TPA 3x A320x2, A319
DTW-RSW: 3x A320
DTW-FLL 3x A321x2, A319
DTW-MSY 1x A320
DTW-CUN 1x A321
DTW-MCI 1x A320
DTW-IAH 1x A320
DTW-DFW 1x A320
DTW-DEN 1x A320
DTW-LAS 3x A320
DTW-LAX 1x A320
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fsafsx
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Fri Jul 29, 2016 10:33 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I have made a recent observation regarding Spirit. I've read multiple sources and multiple opinions and it appears maybe Spirit's fuel in Detroit has ran out. Fornaro wants to fly routes that don't directly compete with the US3, he wants to fly to medium sized markets like CAK, IND, MCI as opposed to DTW, DFW, LAS and what not. This is obviously going to make it more challenging for the WCAA to plead their case.

The recent EWR adds is an example, One of the largest domestic markets from DTW without LCC service is EWR...why didn't NK take up this opportunity? Mr. Fornaro seems to be transforming Spirit into AirTran #2 and I highly disagree with some of his opinions.


Hate to break it to yah bud ol pal but Spirit is done growing at DTW...
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Fri Jul 29, 2016 10:36 pm

fsafsx wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I have made a recent observation regarding Spirit. I've read multiple sources and multiple opinions and it appears maybe Spirit's fuel in Detroit has ran out. Fornaro wants to fly routes that don't directly compete with the US3, he wants to fly to medium sized markets like CAK, IND, MCI as opposed to DTW, DFW, LAS and what not. This is obviously going to make it more challenging for the WCAA to plead their case.

The recent EWR adds is an example, One of the largest domestic markets from DTW without LCC service is EWR...why didn't NK take up this opportunity? Mr. Fornaro seems to be transforming Spirit into AirTran #2 and I highly disagree with some of his opinions.


Hate to break it to yah bud ol pal but Spirit is done growing at DTW...


How?
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:37 pm

All stats are PDEW datafrom the DOT

Largest domestic markets from DTW: New York City, Orlando, Las Vegas

Largest domestic markets monopolized: San Francisco, San Diego, West Palm Beach

Largest markets without an LCC: Seattle, Newark, Washington-DCA

Largest un served markets: Sacramento, Orange County, San Jose, CA
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
fsafsx
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 2

Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:44 pm

flymco753 wrote:
All stats are PDEW datafrom the DOT

Largest domestic markets from DTW: New York City, Orlando, Las Vegas

Largest domestic markets monopolized: San Francisco, San Diego, West Palm Beach

Largest markets without an LCC: Seattle, Newark, Washington-DCA

Largest un served markets: Sacramento, Orange County, San Jose, CA


Sacramento is gone scratch it off your list Delta gave up on it a few years ago. San Francisco wont get United with Detroits Asia flights because its too hard same with American to la. You missed your opportunity on Newark.
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