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DaufuskieGuy
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DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:25 am

I'm curious as to why these two trail UA so much in Asia, part of it I realize is they don't have a SFO type hub, and AA has CX/JA codesharing and DL has KAL. But what's to keep either of them from LAX/JFK SIN (and for DL, SEA as well)? They both claim these as hubs, then why not do something like UA does at SFO?

And AA doesn't have to wait on QF for DFW MEL - start it yourself - and even bigger for DL (and within the 77L range I believe) is ATL SYD. DL uses the L on all sorts of routes where it's not necessary - LAX SYD, ATL/LAX NRT - why not use them to be a market leader rather than as the newbie 5th or 6th carrier on a route?

My guess is that neither DL or AA see sufficient demand for these routes (the DL CEO appears hell bent on restoring ATL PVG I guess it's a higher priority) but you have to wonder at some point whether the cautiousness hurts them competitively. Once SQ restarts its SIN routes it's probably too late to jump in. Of note the UA flight to SIN departs too early for connecting flights (amazing they can do it off O&D) and there's a huge swath of the eastern US that could get one stop service to SIN if JFK were offered (ATL SYD lots of new one stops as well).

Maybe these sorts of things will come to pass as 787/350 aircraft enter into service?
 
a380787
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:25 am

For starters, DL+VA needs to reconnect LAX-MEL before thinking more creative solutions like ATL-SYD.

AA is trying very hard at LAX, but the flip side of the "highest O&D" coin is that there will be strong competition on most routes they attempt, while simultaneously not having a dominant grip of LAX market share.

DL's options all have some challenges - MU PVG with no known timeline for ever converting into JV, KE ICN that is in the ice age, CI TPE that is JV-able but with low yields, or DL SEA that is still trying to prove its TPAC worth against LAX SFO YVR.

AA at least has a very clear path of execution - completed DFW TPAC, rapid build up of LAX, enhanced JV with JL+QF, and a strong codeshare with globally premier airline CX. LAX-SIN is not a priority for anyone - winning LAX is ... (Whatever that means)
 
jfk777
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:00 am

The concept of Delta "building" its Asian system is funny since they merged with an airline with the biggest Asian route systems, Northwest. DL flies to Tokyo from all corners if the USA, sure the NRT hub is not what it used to be. Delta only has itself to for its "freeze" in the Korean Airlines alliance, ICN is the best connected and geographically connected hub in Asia. Delta also has fleet issues with ultra long haul planes since it has only 18 777, not 50 or 75 like AA and UA. DL is late to the 787 & A350. With the withdrawal of the former NW 744 fleet DL is short 7,000 mile capable airplanes, A330-300 are not that.
 
AAplat4life
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:30 am

I agree that DL has been behind AA and UA in fleet issues. It has been that way for some time now, but it doesn't seem to worry DL.

Competition for AA building up LAX is going to be tough. It has been suggested several times that AA lags DL on both NRT and PVG routes. Apparently, the LAX--SYD route has been a slow start for AA, but things may be changing there.
 
commavia
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:16 pm

It is hard to imagine any plausible scenario by which either AA or Delta could ever catch up to United across the Pacific at this point. United has a network and hub structure - both in the U.S. and more generally - that is just so perfectly tailor-made for Asia that I don't think AA or Delta could ever really match, let alone beat, it. United has hubs in the largest and most important U.S. cities for Asia in the eastern (NYC), central (CHI) and western (SFO/LAX) regions of the U.S. Its primary U.S. gateway to Asia - SFO - is not only a massive, extremely premium and perfectly-situated O&D market in its own right, but also uncontested among U.S. competitors. United's unique network throughout Micronesia is popular with Asia point of sale O&D customers and only further helps bolster United's presence in Asia. And United's constellation of alliances throughout the Pacific Rim - first and most importantly being the JV with Japanese powerhouse ANA - is unrivaled in totality.

That said, the competitive evolution among U.S. carriers across the Pacific in the last decade has been, arguably, the most dynamic and dramatic of the three DOT-defined international regions. Again, United was in the lead - strategically and financially - a decade ago, and remains so today. But what's been fascinating to watch is the marked shift among Delta and AA which are at two very different places in the region.

Delta is still the #2 U.S. carrier to Asia, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Delta's Asian franchise - still largely driven by Japan but steadily less so with each passing year - is large and strong. Delta's strategic decision to begin extricating itself from reliance on NRT and instead focusing on the one-two punch of SEA and DTW to provide direct access from its vast U.S. network to the principal markets of East Asia was a prescient one. That strategy continues to pay dividends, from what I can see. And that extrication from NRT continues apace. I continue to believe that Delta still has a bit more culling to do at NRT - but it's largely where it needs to be. Now the final building block Delta still needs is a robust JV with a robust East Asian partner - and the obvious partner is Korean.

AA, in contrast, is building - organically. Unlike Delta which is trying to rebuild a different transpacific franchise (one built around SEA/DTW) on top of the proverbial foundations of one that has long existed (NRT), AA is starting from almost nothing. In some ways, ironically, this has arguably worked to AA's advantage. With the hindsight to see how traffic patterns are changing and with the advent of airplanes - the 777 and especially the 787 - perfectly suited for AA's hub structure and competitive disadvantage in Asia, AA has done what many were skeptical a decade ago was possible. AA has turned DFW into an excellent compliment to ORD in getting passengers from the central and eastern U.S. to the major cities of East Asia, and built an impressive nexus to Latin America. But more importantly, AA has - in the span of essentially two years - turned LAX into the second largest U.S. carrier transpacific gateway which, by the end of this year, will be seeing at least 6 and possibly 7 daily widebodies across the Pacific. I continue to believe that - in the context of realistic goals and managed expectations - AA's organic building is nearly done. AA has never been playing for the top spot in Asia because that's not achievable, and frankly I think even reaching #2 is equally unrealistic. All AA has ever needed was to be "good enough," and relevant - and I think AA is almost there. What AA needs now is LAX-PEK, LAX-ICN, and perhaps 1-2 nonstop flights from the eastern U.S. to Asia, and I think AA will be there, particularly once combined with the JAL and QANTAS JVs, and extensive Cathay relationship.
 
jfk777
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:46 pm

AA started Asia at a disadvantage but is making chicken salad out of chicken shxx. Its turned DFW into a very decent Asian gateway, who would have thought. LAX now has flight to Sydney, Shanghai and Tokyo and soon Auckland and Hong Kong too. Peking would make a nice addition too. Taipei and Seoul would be nice but the airlines from those countries fly to LAX the way BA flies to JFK, lots.

AA flies from Chicago to three Asian cities; NRT, PVG and PEK. AA needs an east coast gateway either JFK or its PHL hub would do the job. AA has had to build one route at a time to Asia, it has a decent system from to cities and a decent ORD operation. More routes will come.
 
kriskim
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:08 pm

a380787 wrote:
For starters, DL+VA needs to reconnect LAX-MEL before thinking more creative solutions like ATL-SYD.

AA is trying very hard at LAX, but the flip side of the "highest O&D" coin is that there will be strong competition on most routes they attempt, while simultaneously not having a dominant grip of LAX market share.


I don't think DL/VA are interested anymore, if they want to be competitive on the MEL-Nth America market they will need to act soon. AA will probably jump on the MEL-LAX route next year complementing the current QF services (by replacing QF95/96 with daily 787-9 services), QF in turn will probably launch MEL-DFW by the end of 2017. That would give MEL more exposure to the Nth American market, UA might also react with MEL-SFO down the road too, I don't expect UA to serve MEL-LAX only forever, it would only make sense as the MEL market continues to grow for them. There won't be much room left for DL/VA, the SYD and AKL markets depends greatly on the MEL market too, to feed its own services.

AC and HA also have their eyes on MEL too, so there's competition looming, it just comes down to who makes the first move! MEL has so much potential.
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910A
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Thu Jun 30, 2016 3:02 pm

jfk777 wrote:
AA started Asia at a disadvantage but is making chicken salad out of chicken shxx. Its turned DFW into a very decent Asian gateway, who would have thought. LAX now has flight to Sydney, Shanghai and Tokyo and soon Auckland and Hong Kong too. Peking would make a nice addition too. .


AA started AKL this week. I can't remember the last time that I saw Beijing referred to as Peking. ;)
 
Softaero
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Thu Jun 30, 2016 3:36 pm

jfk777 wrote:
The concept of Delta "building" its Asian system is funny since they merged with an airline with the biggest Asian route systems, Northwest. DL flies to Tokyo from all corners if the USA, sure the NRT hub is not what it used to be. Delta only has itself to for its "freeze" in the Korean Airlines alliance, ICN is the best connected and geographically connected hub in Asia. Delta also has fleet issues with ultra long haul planes since it has only 18 777, not 50 or 75 like AA and UA. DL is late to the 787 & A350. With the withdrawal of the former NW 744 fleet DL is short 7,000 mile capable airplanes, A330-300 are not that.

DL always refers to SEA as its "West Coast Asian Gateway" - it serves a different market from DTW and MSP. Drawing down the NRT hub makes sense because DL would never be able to rival NH and JL at NRT, providing less options to passengers.
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jfk777
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:46 am

Whatever hub Delta has in Asia it still will have about 10 daily Japan to the USA flights.
 
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KTPAFlyer
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:01 am

Delta, United, and American each have interesting situations. Here's my take on this:

Delta's hubs are ATL, DTW, JFK, MSP, SLC, SEA, & LAX. DTW is Delta controlled and is the official Asian gateway. SEA and LAX are tough to grow much or compete in. SLC has a lot of potential, and is DL's equivalent of PHX. Like AA, DL hasn't realized the potential of expanding SLC as a west coast gateway and probably would work best in tandem with DTW.

For AA, as many have said above, AA has remarkably figured out how to turn both DFW and LAX into Asian hubs, but LAX is a no win for anyone in particular. DFW should keep expanding, but PHX could be bolstered to support additional growth in the future to 2nd city destinations that are two small for DFW and LAX.

United is in the lucky positions of having not one, not two, but three solid hubs on the west alone. SFO has really destroyed AA and DL here, and tbh, neither will never catch up because UA has a dual advantage here. AA has the aircraft, and DL has the routes, UA has both! DEN has the most potential out of the Midwest 3 and could probably stand on its own as an Asian gateway.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:09 am

KTPAFlyer wrote:
Delta's hubs are ATL, DTW, JFK, MSP, SLC, SEA, & LAX. DTW is Delta controlled and is the official Asian gateway. SEA and LAX are tough to grow much or compete in. SLC has a lot of potential, and is DL's equivalent of PHX. Like AA, DL hasn't realized the potential of expanding SLC as a west coast gateway and probably would work best in tandem with DTW.

Where do you come up with this stuff? :?

I would challenge you to show us any official statement by DL, in any capacity, referring to DTW as "the" Asian gateway, without a qualifier such as "eastern/east coast" as to not impede on SEA/LAX.

And yes, SLC does have potential, but DL is not going to go on a serious expansion there until the terminal construction and layout are completed... as to do so would just cause congestion where none need be.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
DeltaB717
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:33 am

DaufuskieGuy wrote:
even bigger for DL (and within the 77L range I believe) is ATL SYD. DL uses the L on all sorts of routes where it's not necessary - LAX SYD, ATL/LAX NRT - why not use them to be a market leader rather than as the newbie 5th or 6th carrier on a route?


I think DL's network planners would argue quite strongly against this statement. The benefit the 77L gives them (compared to the 77E, which is the only other realistic frame given the draw-down of the 747 fleet) on LAX-SYD and ATL/LAX-NRT is volume-limited, rather than weight-limited, freight capacity.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they argued ATL-SYD is a little too far. The 77L's range is 9,500nm, ATL-SYD is 8,068nm (614nm or 8.3% further than DFW-SYD) on a great circle track. Add in the extra distance because a flight that long doesn't just follow the great circle track, and the strong headwind component for the westbound flight, and the 77L is almost certainly blocking seats, which isn't ideal on a sector that long.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:57 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
The 77L's range is 9,500nm, ATL-SYD is 8,068nm (614nm or 8.3% further than DFW-SYD) on a great circle track.

It's closer to 9300nm max range, and that's assuming three auxiliary tanks in the belly.

DL's birds don't even have the plumbing provisions for all three, and without them, it's 8600nm... so that right there makes it a no-go.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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GSPFlyer
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:05 pm

I didn't realize VA pulled out of LAX-MEL. If DL/VA wanted to get back on the route, a DL 77L would be a good choice of equipment for the route if the VA 77W was too big.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:26 pm

GSPFlyer wrote:
a DL 77L would be a good choice of equipment for the route if the VA 77W was too big.

There's not many situations where a 77L would be an improvement over a 77W, unless extreme range or extreme payload were the root problems... neither of which appeared to be the case with MEL-LAX. They're basically the same airplane.

Seems more like a route that DL would want to put an A359 on, if profitability was an issue.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
DeltaB717
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:49 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
DeltaB717 wrote:
The 77L's range is 9,500nm, ATL-SYD is 8,068nm (614nm or 8.3% further than DFW-SYD) on a great circle track.

It's closer to 9300nm max range, and that's assuming three auxiliary tanks in the belly.

DL's birds don't even have the plumbing provisions for all three, and without them, it's 8600nm... so that right there makes it a no-go.


Cheers for that! I was just going off the 'quoted' max range, so good to know DL has gone with an option a little under the max :)
 
gregn21
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Mon Jul 04, 2016 2:17 am

If American had never given away LAX terminal 3 when they acquired it from TWA, they would clearly be winning the LAX battle. One hell of a bad decision on their part.

In the meantime they should work on a deal for terminal 5 when Delta moves to 2,3 next year (or whenever that actually happens). Then they can look at taking more permanent gates in TBIT. Connections would be easier and more gates would obviously mean more new routes and new frequencies to existing destinations.

Once they have the theoretical gates, probably around 20 more than they have now, they can open up secondary Asian destinations like CTU and KIX. Also, they could add new European routes like TXL, CDG, even MAD.

In five years I see American operating to at least a few of the following intercontinental destinations from LA:

LIM
CDG
TXL
MAD
ICN
TPE
CTU
KIX
BNE
SIN
TLV
DOH
HEL
MAN

Obviously, this is kind of a crazy theory, but I don't find it quite as far-fetched as the common A.netter does.
 
hayzel777
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Mon Jul 04, 2016 2:34 am

gregn21 wrote:
If American had never given away LAX terminal 3 when they acquired it from TWA, they would clearly be winning the LAX battle. One hell of a bad decision on their part.

In the meantime they should work on a deal for terminal 5 when Delta moves to 2,3 next year (or whenever that actually happens). Then they can look at taking more permanent gates in TBIT. Connections would be easier and more gates would obviously mean more new routes and new frequencies to existing destinations.

Once they have the theoretical gates, probably around 20 more than they have now, they can open up secondary Asian destinations like CTU and KIX. Also, they could add new European routes like TXL, CDG, even MAD.

In five years I see American operating to at least a few of the following intercontinental destinations from LA:

LIM
CDG
TXL
MAD
ICN
TPE
CTU
KIX
BNE
SIN
TLV
DOH
HEL
MAN

Obviously, this is kind of a crazy theory, but I don't find it quite as far-fetched as the common A.netter does.


AA will not go to TPE or ICN. It is too hard for them. KE and OZ and now going double A380 and BR and CI are flying 5 total 77W flights a day.
CTU is also hard, considering none of the Chinese airlines have started it and instead have been doing random cities like Changsha.
SIN will be hard if not impossible for them too. They do not have the A350ULR on order.
They technically do fly KIX via their JAL JV.
 
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qfvhoqa
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Mon Jul 04, 2016 5:33 am

gregn21 wrote:
In five years I see American operating to at least a few of the following intercontinental destinations from LA:

LIM
CDG
TXL
MAD
ICN
TPE
CTU
KIX
BNE
SIN
TLV
DOH
HEL
MAN

TXL - AA doesn't even fly there from the east coast, it's too low yielding for long haul
MAD - IB flies it in summer, so AA already has skin in the game
BNE - QF flies it all year, so again AA has skin in the game
TLV - AA recently ended PHL-TLV, they aren't going to replace it with LAX-TLV
DOH - tiny O&D so would be relying on connections, AA uses EY for connections to the gulf & subcontinent

There's potential in operating LAX-MAN, but there's probably other places AA would rather send the plane. Easier just to route pax via ORD/JFK/LHR.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Mon Jul 04, 2016 6:06 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
Cheers for that! I was just going off the 'quoted' max range, so good to know DL has gone with an option a little under the max

No one else has either.

The 77L has the option of provisions for no auxiliary tanks, one, or three.
Pretty sure no carrier has ever opted for three. EK, AI, and (possibly DL, but not sure) took the option for 1 tank, but haven't actually need to employ them.

Even without any tanks, the 77L's range is insane. Despite UA's current SFO-SIN, it's actually still DL who holds the title for longest ever scheduled nonstop route by a USA carrier (ATL-BOM)... and their 77Ls flew it with relative ease.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
tcaeyx
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Mon Jul 04, 2016 6:19 am

gregn21 wrote:
LIM
CDG
TXL
MAD
ICN
TPE
CTU
KIX
BNE
SIN
TLV
DOH
HEL
MAN


You can write off LAX-CTU, as HU applied for this route last month.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Mon Jul 04, 2016 6:59 am

qfvhoqa wrote:
There's potential in operating LAX-MAN

Not with MT already on the route, sucking up the demand at low prices.

Best to send it over over hubs.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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N644US
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:14 am

KTPAFlyer wrote:
United is in the lucky positions of having not one, not two, but three solid hubs on the west alone. SFO has really destroyed AA and DL here, and tbh, neither will never catch up because UA has a dual advantage here. AA has the aircraft, and DL has the routes, UA has both! DEN has the most potential out of the Midwest 3 and could probably stand on its own as an Asian gateway.


Not to mention the slot constraints and heavy competition from LAX for both carriers, the (relative) lack of demand from PHX for AA, and the lack of gate space at SEA for DL. DL has to wait for planes if it wants to expand from DTW or ATL, and AA needs more demand if it will start up services from PHX or more long-haulers from, say, JFK or PHL. While DL has more routes and AA has more long-haul planes to use, it seems that lack of slot space may also change how AA + DL can expand in the Asian market. With little-to-no options to expand from their current gateways, it seems that their best options for expanding into Asia is via JV Partners - which DL seems to be going crazy with with a seemingly never-starting JV with MU and a complete freeze of partnering with KE. DL should expand into Asia with KE as the most obvious choice, but it's Ed Bastian & Co. who decide that.
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Sightseer
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Mon Jul 04, 2016 2:40 pm

gregn21 wrote:
Once they have the theoretical gates, probably around 20 more than they have now,

There is a very slim likelihood of that happening in the short- to medium-term. While i believe AA is going to move into T5 soon, part of that move will also entail leaving the Eagle's Nest (I think).
gregn21 wrote:
In five years I see American operating to at least a few of the following intercontinental destinations from LA:

LIM
CDG
TXL
MAD
ICN
TPE
CTU
KIX
BNE
SIN
TLV
DOH
HEL
MAN

Obviously, this is kind of a crazy theory, but I don't find it quite as far-fetched as the common A.netter does.

I would fall out of my chair if AA started LAX-TXL or -DOH.
N644US wrote:
Not to mention the slot constraints and heavy competition from LAX for both carriers

There are no actual slots at LAX, just heavy competition and a lack of gates (which acts like a slot system of sorts).
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Mon Jul 04, 2016 9:29 pm

N644US wrote:
a complete freeze of partnering with KE. DL should expand into Asia with KE as the most obvious choice, but it's Ed Bastian & Co. who decide that.

You don't know that. At all.

In fact, you have don't have the faintest idea as to who decided what:
...because you aren't privy to the details of either side's proposals, nor to the extent of their disagreement on any given particular issue.

Thus, why make a statement pretending to? :roll:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
MKIAZ
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:07 am

hayzel777 wrote:
AA will not go to TPE or ICN. It is too hard for them. KE and OZ and now going double A380 and BR and CI are flying 5 total 77W flights a day.
SIN will be hard if not impossible for them too. They do not have the A350ULR on order.


I'm not so sure. Look, with the US merger AA got a lot bigger base of FF's. The competition on TPE/ICN is all skyteam/*alliance, there are no nonstops from the US on oneworld. The same could be said for AKL with NZ, but AA started it. Just a 787 a day would be perfect for TPE.

I could see them adjusting the a350 order to the ULR. They could use it for quite a few routes. MIA-JNB, DFW-HKG, DFW-MEL, LAX-SIN. I think we will also see some expansion at either JFK or PHL for Asia destinations.
 
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N644US
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Tue Jul 05, 2016 12:43 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
N644US wrote:
Thus, why make a statement pretending to? :roll:


Yeah... I really don't know what I'm talking about. It's just speculation with a lack of disclaimer because I'm really tired. Travelling has its pains.
Aviation: the field where (almost) anything can be solved using math and science.
 
a380787
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:58 pm

MKIAZ wrote:
I'm not so sure. Look, with the US merger AA got a lot bigger base of FF's. The competition on TPE/ICN is all skyteam/*alliance, there are no nonstops from the US on oneworld. The same could be said for AKL with NZ, but AA started it. Just a 787 a day would be perfect for TPE.


ICN i'll give you - there's strategic value in AA adding LAX-ICN. TPE is going to challenging. The traffic skews VFR, which is heavily loyal to either CI (skyteam) or BR (star) (and a local Taiwanese can actually give you a history lesson on how those 2 airlines are unofficially aligned with the 2 major political parties in TW). You can literally count in 2 hands the number of US passengers who travel to TPE frequently who *must* fly oneworld.

BR+CI has nonstop service to LAX SFO SEA IAH JFK, ORD coming Nov'16, and IAD supposedly coming sometime in 2017 (schedule not yet published). There's no real low hanging fruit for anyone to pick. (and remember even SQ gave up on SIN-TPE-LAX rather quickly)

If AA has 787s to spare, consider doing LAX to secondary China instead of TPE. That's a far better use of a limited resource. The AKL route isn't apples-to-apples since that route had long been operated by QF Aus-AKL-LAX context, and only cancelled in recent years. They're essentially handing an already-proven market to their JV partner.
 
bzcat
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Tue Jul 05, 2016 11:26 pm

gregn21 wrote:
If American had never given away LAX terminal 3 when they acquired it from TWA, they would clearly be winning the LAX battle. One hell of a bad decision on their part.

In the meantime they should work on a deal for terminal 5 when Delta moves to 2,3 next year (or whenever that actually happens). Then they can look at taking more permanent gates in TBIT. Connections would be easier and more gates would obviously mean more new routes and new frequencies to existing destinations.

Once they have the theoretical gates, probably around 20 more than they have now, they can open up secondary Asian destinations like CTU and KIX. Also, they could add new European routes like TXL, CDG, even MAD.

In five years I see American operating to at least a few of the following intercontinental destinations from LA:

LIM
CDG
TXL
MAD
ICN
TPE
CTU
KIX
BNE
SIN
TLV
DOH
HEL
MAN

Obviously, this is kind of a crazy theory, but I don't find it quite as far-fetched as the common A.netter does.


AA taking over T5 is basically a done deal.

LAX-ICN, TPE, and MAN are all possible with 787 especially if AA's corporate contracts ask for these destinations. There are sizable business traffic between LAX and all 3 and AA's large base of FF at LAX will have no trouble filling out the front cabin. But AA will have a tough time filling the Y cabin without connecting traffic from the other side, or a robust game plan to tap in the LA originating ethnic Korean, Taiwanese, and Indian travel agencies.

LAX-CDG will be a shot across the bow of DL... I can see AA doing it. The same benefit of AA's large base of FF at LAX that should benefit ICN and TPE will apply for CDG too.

LAX-LIM, BNE, MAD, KIX are all operated by JV partners. No reason for AA to go in unless it is to add frequency. But none of those routes seem like it is crying out for 2x daily (or even 1x year round in the case of MAD).

LAX-TLV is probably large enough 3 or 4x weekly flight. But it will require 2.5x aircraft to rotate and since it is not daily, it creates big operational challenge. I don't see it happening unless AA starts another US-TLV flight to rotate with LAX.

LAX-SIN is out of the question... no equipment to operate and no feed at SIN.

LAX-TXL, CTU, DOH are all too small for AA.

LAX-HEL is hell no.

The one flight I see AA starting is LAX-HKG... the market is big enough for a 5th daily and this will improve aircraft utilization with DFW-HKG in rotation - i.e. DFW-HKG-LAX-HKG-DFW
 
Sydscott
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Wed Jul 06, 2016 12:09 am

AA has already announced LAX-HKG. It's locked in to start in a couple of months time.

The other dots for AA at LAX are PEK, which they're fighting for slots with DL, and ICN where there probably is enough traffic for them to be able to capture something meaningful. After AA finishes that build out that gives them, in terms of long haul, LHR/GRU/SYD/AKL/NRT/HND/PVG/PEK/HKG/ICN. That's a pretty solid network that will take a bit of time for them to bed in and make profitable. So with this, and their codeshare partners, I don't really see much more need to expand in terms of long haul. It will be more interesting to see what AA does to Central America and Mexico.

There will also be other opportunities for AA in terms of a potential DFW-HND and they could consider a 787 on ORD-HKG to round out the current Asia Network at ORD. But the challenge for AA in all of this is to make all of these new services profitable which the 787 will help do but the competition is intense.
 
hayzel777
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Wed Jul 06, 2016 9:14 pm

MKIAZ wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
AA will not go to TPE or ICN. It is too hard for them. KE and OZ and now going double A380 and BR and CI are flying 5 total 77W flights a day.
SIN will be hard if not impossible for them too. They do not have the A350ULR on order.


I'm not so sure. Look, with the US merger AA got a lot bigger base of FF's. The competition on TPE/ICN is all skyteam/*alliance, there are no nonstops from the US on oneworld. The same could be said for AKL with NZ, but AA started it. Just a 787 a day would be perfect for TPE.

I could see them adjusting the a350 order to the ULR. They could use it for quite a few routes. MIA-JNB, DFW-HKG, DFW-MEL, LAX-SIN. I think we will also see some expansion at either JFK or PHL for Asia destinations.


They already fly DFW-HKG with the 77W. Just because their is no oneworld connection in the market doesnt mean it will be successful. the connections that skyteam and *a offer are already more than enough for travellers. They will also face stiff competition from SFO, a mega *a hub that has double daily BR flights, daily CI flight, and a daily UA flight. CI passengers can connect onto VX/B6. Delta can't even make the SEA-TPE flight viable even though BR is already doing daily mix of 777/747.
Last edited by hayzel777 on Wed Jul 06, 2016 11:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 13334
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Wed Jul 06, 2016 10:56 pm

hayzel777 wrote:
AA is not popular in Taiwan at all, they are somewhat hated.

How could they be "hated" in a market that they haven't served for 15yrs?


hayzel777 wrote:
Delta can't even make the SEA-TPE flight viable even though BR is already doing daily mix of 777/747.

Even CI doesn't feel that competing for Seattle-Taiwan is worthwhile, so why would DL?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
hayzel777
Posts: 638
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:18 am

Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:00 am

LAX772LR wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
AA is not popular in Taiwan at all, they are somewhat hated.

How could they be "hated" in a market that they haven't served for 15yrs?


hayzel777 wrote:
Delta can't even make the SEA-TPE flight viable even though BR is already doing daily mix of 777/747.

Even CI doesn't feel that competing for Seattle-Taiwan is worthwhile, so why would DL?


Actually, taiwanese media has reported many times that Delta is trying to start that route and cut their NRT-TPE flight but they can't get enough support from the local Taiwanese people. I don't have the link though, Focus Taiwan news reported it last december.
 
Sightseer
Posts: 998
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Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:18 am

hayzel777 wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
Delta can't even make the SEA-TPE flight viable even though BR is already doing daily mix of 777/747.

Even CI doesn't feel that competing for Seattle-Taiwan is worthwhile, so why would DL?


Actually, taiwanese media has reported many times that Delta is trying to start that route

Hopefully this will come online once the A350s arrive. I would lIke to see those planes do for DL across the Pacific what the 787 has done for UA. Of course, UA does have some structural and fleet advantages in that area (SFO megahub, fewer seats in the 787 vs A350).

Edit: I have also read on this forum that DL is waiting for the SEA FIS to be expanded before they add any more international flying there.
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 13334
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: DL and AA - building out Asian/OZ network

Thu Jul 07, 2016 1:41 am

hayzel777 wrote:
Actually, taiwanese media has reported many times that Delta is trying to start that route and cut their NRT-TPE flight but they can't get enough support from the local Taiwanese people. I don't have the link though, Focus Taiwan news reported it last december.

1) you didn't answer my AA question

2) Media report all manner of speculation about aviation possibilities... doesn't make them accurate, especially since DL has made it clear that they won't be adding any more longhauls to SEA until after facilities expansion.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil

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