ScottB wrote:

I'm not sure the comparison with routes which are served on regional aircraft or sub-daily mainline markets is all that apt, to be honest. It will be a challenge, at least initially, to draw much tourist traffic given that the restrictions on tourism to Cuba still remain in place and the number of available hotel rooms won't change overnight.

Will AirBnB be an option in Havana? I'd think that would be a great way for Cubans to enrich themselves in the near term, and it'd be a great way to enmesh yourself in to the Cuban lifestyle.

So it looks like Silver Airways got nothing to HAV?
Does anyone know what Cubana got?

Prost wrote:

ScottB wrote:

I'm not sure the comparison with routes which are served on regional aircraft or sub-daily mainline markets is all that apt, to be honest. It will be a challenge, at least initially, to draw much tourist traffic given that the restrictions on tourism to Cuba still remain in place and the number of available hotel rooms won't change overnight.

Will AirBnB be an option in Havana? I'd think that would be a great way for Cubans to enrich themselves in the near term, and it'd be a great way to enmesh yourself in to the Cuban lifestyle.

I just did a search on AirBnB and Havana is indeed an option.

Perhaps I missed it (probably!) but what about the Cuban airline industry's side of things? What airlines/destinations/freqs?

This was for US carriers only, I imagine Cuban carriers will have an equal number of frequencies to the US. However, wasn't there a threat of Cuban aircraft assets being seized if they landed from grievances related to the nationalization of industry in Cuba?

I'm wondering if HAV really has the infrastructure to handle all these flights.

tortugamon wrote:

WN, B6, and NK all flying FLL-HAV is a lot of competition for that market. Surprised B6 is the only one to get MCO and AS getting LAX-HAV is interesting as well. Happy to see the spread though.

avi8 wrote:

It's amazing how AA has the slack to add 18 (approx) mainline flights from MIA to Cuba just like that.

Isn't the flight time like 16 minutes or something? Won't require many aircraft.

tortugamon

I'M happy they spread it around. I truly expect over time that the spreading around will prove that concentration routs out of MIA/FLL will be the majority routs to still be standing. Lets let the market have a chance and I'm sure that MIA/AA will get more opportunities for routs.


I'd Like to see some widebodies on the route.

When I was in MIA just a few weeks ago there were gates with HAV flights (Charters) flying already and have been for years from what I've read. Do these 4 daily flts awarded replace them? If so did they get a increase or decrease?

I know it's a concern...along with catering, crew accommodations, transportation, maintenance, etc. Not as much a concern for a little hop from MIA or TPA but for AS it's definitely a puzzle they need to quickly solve. Of course it's doable...Canadian and European carriers have flown to HAV for years.

wedgetail737 wrote:

With the connections and vacation packages, I think LAX can support a single 737-800.

Umm I'm not sure. Many many people I know think im crazy to visit places like cuba. I think most americans like CANCUN like places. I'm not one of them but many many do. And if they can get the traffic will such a long route work financially?

I would of hoped AA picked DFW has its Connecting HUB vs CLT. CLT Could get NE traffic flow I don't see many people wanting to Go LAX CLT HAV. Whenever ive tried to use that path on US/AA for Caribbean flying it wouldn't work. LAX MIA/DFW flow works Better due to time and frequency in my experience.

I know Eastern Airlines still doesn't have the necessary permits to do scheduled flights but I was under the impression they would have this in place by the time the doors would open for scheduled flights from the U.S. to Cuba. I even thought Miami-Havana scheduled flights would be crucial for their existence.

What happened that Eastern Airlines didn't have all the necessary permits ready in time for these scheduled? Was this the plan all along? Cuba could have been the market they could get a strong hold seeing that all airlines begin flying there from zero. Now they can only this market later but will they succeed? Very sad to not see Eastern Airlines this market in time

A388

ScottB wrote:

AS can't operate LAX-SJU/PUJ with its current fleet.

That changes with the first MAX delivery, though.

I'm kind of surprised by the "MIA offers better connectivity than FLL" commentary on here – FLL gives a few dozen more airports one-stop Havana service on B6, NK, and WN not served by AA over MIA:

B6: ALB, BUF, HPN, PVD, ORH, SWF, SYR
WN: ALB, BUF, DAL, MDW, MHT, MKE, HOU, ISP, PVD, STL
NK: ACY, IAG, LBE, MYR, PBG

Granted, none of these are going to be huge HAV traffic generators. But they're still markets enabled by the DOT giving frequencies to these carriers at FLL.

FLL service also adds competitive carrier choice to another few dozen major airports served by both AA and one or more of these carriers.

adamblang wrote:

I'm kind of surprised by the "MIA offers better connectivity than FLL" commentary on here – FLL gives a few dozen more airports one-stop Havana service on B6, NK, and WN not served by AA over MIA:

Who said that? (Not being sarcastic - I may well have missed it in one of the replies.)

To the point, though, I don't think anyone is suggesting "MIA offers better connectivity than FLL," but rather that both offer ample connectivity in the U.S. markets that will actually generate meaningful connecting demand to Cuba, but that MIA is by far the more convenient airport for what is and will remain by far the largest O&D market to HAV and Cuba.

The concentration of Cuba O&D is in Miami-Dade, not Broward - that's not really debatable and no airline seriously tried to argue it. But in any event, I think that is the comparison that many here have been focusing on (in this and multiple threads) and that the airlines argued over extensively in their applications and replies in the DOT case.

What on earth is up with the DL 1x MIA-HAV? One non-hub flight a day up against AA's MIA-Caribbean fortress hub (and its requisite FF base)? They're going to get slaughtered. I can see why DOT awarded it (to give AA some competition to keep them from charging a million dollars a ticket) but DL is going to get hosed here.

StrandedAtMKG wrote:

What on earth is up with the DL 1x MIA-HAV? One non-hub flight a day up against AA's MIA-Caribbean fortress hub (and its requisite FF base)? They're going to get slaughtered. I can see why DOT awarded it (to give AA some competition to keep them from charging a million dollars a ticket) but DL is going to get hosed here.

A single flight could keep prices down you do not have to pay for much infrastructure for your crew. It could be popular with native Cubans and cheap flyers with easy access from MIA the hub of the Caribbean flying in America.

StrandedAtMKG wrote:

What on earth is up with the DL 1x MIA-HAV? One non-hub flight a day up against AA's MIA-Caribbean fortress hub (and its requisite FF base)? They're going to get slaughtered. I can see why DOT awarded it (to give AA some competition to keep them from charging a million dollars a ticket) but DL is going to get hosed here.

You are joking, right? MIA, and South Florida generally, received a tiny proportion of capacity relative to demand. MIAHAV will be the easiest of Delta's three daily HAV flights to fill, and probably have the highest fare. DL has a goldmine with this route. Too bad it didn't get a second daily flight.

There is so little demand to Cuba outside of South Florida and to some extent New York. Just like airlines struggle big time to make Haiti, Santo Domingo, Port of Spain, Bridgetown, Kingston or countless other Caribbean VFR markets work outside of Florida and New York, the same will be out of Cuba, but even more exaggerated because of severe visa restrictions.

Why do you think nobody applied for a single secondary market that didn't touch Miami/Lauderdale except for Frontier and Sun Country, which I wouldn't be surprised never launch.

iahcsr wrote:

I'm wondering if HAV really has the infrastructure to handle all these flights.

HAV has handled in the past year as many as 58 scheduled departures. Peak day charter departures also hover around 14 daily, and those are due to evaporate in short order once scheduled service begins. So, this is a net increase of something less than 6 daily flights. I doubt that's going to break the airport.

Also, the average gauge is 156 seats - just about the same size as proposed by these new services. This shouldn't be an issue.

Also, let's not forget that the world never stopped visiting Cuba - they have 11 peak day widebody flights to Europe. The infrastructure is there.

using existing PDEW to say how many MIA-HAV is needed is meaningless since nearly all existing traffic were the VFR kind, with minimal business conducted (and mostly "under-table")

DOT's job is to ensure that if the business market opens up (and it WILL), the allocations will serve the entire nation well, not just to deliver the same old VFR-based allocations.

If anything, AA should be happy that half of SoFL frequencies got thrown to FLL, so they can actually command a yield premium purely based on the "convenience" factor of Miami-Dade vs. Broward. Funny that AA got 25% of all allocations and SoFL got 60% of all allocations are some are still upset ....

commavia wrote:

To the point, though, I don't think anyone is suggesting "MIA offers better connectivity than FLL," but rather that both offer ample connectivity in the U.S. markets that will actually generate meaningful connecting demand to Cuba, but that MIA is by far the more convenient airport for what is and will remain by far the largest O&D market to HAV and Cuba.

The concentration of Cuba O&D is in Miami-Dade, not Broward - that's not really debatable and no airline seriously tried to argue it. But in any event, I think that is the comparison that many here have been focusing on (in this and multiple threads) and that the airlines argued over extensively in their applications and replies in the DOT case.

I am willing to bet that the MIA fares will be higher than FLL, which will drive some of the VFR market to the latter. Its not as if these airports are 100 miles apart.

A more important question will be what happens to the charters? Some are operated by carriers like EA, as well as Insel and Air Aruba, which clearly cannot be awarded scheduled routes (for different reasons).

Will the VFR market, which has unrestricted rights to travel to Cuba simply abandon them? If so then MIA will be underserved, based on the numbers of charters that I saw headed to Cuba when I recently spent a whopping 6 hours in-transit at MIA. If Jamaica can attract 12D flights from SoFL I am sure that Cuba can do better than that.

a380787 wrote:

If anything, AA should be happy that half of SoFL frequencies got thrown to FLL, so they can actually command a yield premium purely based on the "convenience" factor of Miami-Dade vs. Broward. Funny that AA got 25% of all allocations and SoFL got 60% of all allocations are some are still upset ....

AA will indeed go singing to the bank. Will not be surprised to see $400 fares when FLL carriers offer 50% of that. I am willing to bet that the bulk of the SoFL premium market is tied to AA, due to FF considerations and corporate contracts, so they have the ability to do this.

And yes there will be more business activity generated to HAV, with much of it from SoFL, given that Cuban Americans wlll play a key role in this.

My questions are will HAV be slot controlled?
And will any US carrier RON/overnight aircraft in HAV?

Flyguy

For how long do you think these routes will last? In the first year I am sure all those flights will be quite full, but IMHO after that we will not see all carriers flying there.

wnflyguy wrote:

And will any US carrier RON/overnight aircraft in HAV?

I doubt there will be much need to do so for the frequencies to or from Florida. I don't think there would be a need to overnight the aircraft/crews on the flights from the East Coast airports, either (JFK/EWR/CLT/ATL) simply because the flights can be scheduled as mid-day turns akin to how GCM & MBJ are served. The only flight which would seem remotely likely to RON at HAV might be AS due to the length of the flight from LAX -- but I could just as easily see it operated as a red-eye turn.

Prost wrote:

Will AirBnB be an option in Havana? I'd think that would be a great way for Cubans to enrich themselves in the near term, and it'd be a great way to enmesh yourself in to the Cuban lifestyle.

Sure, I'd just love to experience the poverty brought on by a failed control economy first-hand! Then again, the Cubans with the party connections necessary to have relatively unfettered internet access and the ability to accept payments from a U.S. company like AirBNB probably live pretty nicely. (Plus, the dollars earned would go a much longer way there.)

guyanam wrote:

AA will indeed go singing to the bank. Will not be surprised to see $400 fares when FLL carriers offer 50% of that. I am willing to bet that the bulk of the SoFL premium market is tied to AA, due to FF considerations and corporate contracts, so they have the ability to do this.

Then it seems like the allocations made by DOT will actually turn out quite well; those who are willing to pay a premium to fly AA/use MIA will do so, while those who are willing to accept a longer drive in exchange for a bargain airfare will fly from FLL.

No one said AA must only operate those 4x daily with 738-sized planes. If demand is truly through the roof, AA can always upgauge to the largest equipment that HAV can handle. It's such a short hop that AA can easily do a quick widebody HAV turn between the Atlantic and Latin flights that MIA has.

AA 777 doing turns to HAV in between MIA long haul...

MAH4546 wrote:

[

There is so little demand to Cuba outside of South Florida and to some extent New York. Just like airlines struggle big time to make Haiti, Santo Domingo, Port of Spain, Bridgetown, Kingston or countless other Caribbean VFR markets work outside of Florida and New York, the same will be out of Cuba, but even more exaggerated because of severe visa restrictions.

Why do you think nobody applied for a single secondary market that didn't touch Miami/Lauderdale except for Frontier and Sun Country, which I wouldn't be surprised never launch.

Except that HAV isn't just a VFR market. It has a leisure component, and also a business component. Last year 150k US visitors traveled, and this year will be more than that. This makes Cuba equivalent to islands like BGI and SLU in terms of its US leisure market. Most of this will be into HAV, or VRA.

UVF gets DL with daily service from ATL. PUJ gets service from several points other than the NY area and SoFL. So yes ATL and CLT will work for HAV. In fact Cubans live all over the USA, not just in SoFL, and these Cubans will need to access hubs with high connectivity, given that capacity from MIA will not ne enough. I hardly think that filling 6D flights on the MIA HAV will be a huge issue.

I remain skeptical of the longevity of DLs MIA HAV route. This will be their only Caribbean route out of MIA. I expect their exit as soon as the market liberalizes and AA is able to run as many flights as they wish. I don't see how 1D can compete with an airline which will eventually have many flights scattered through the day.

guyanam wrote:

MAH4546 wrote:

[

There is so little demand to Cuba outside of South Florida and to some extent New York. Just like airlines struggle big time to make Haiti, Santo Domingo, Port of Spain, Bridgetown, Kingston or countless other Caribbean VFR markets work outside of Florida and New York, the same will be out of Cuba, but even more exaggerated because of severe visa restrictions.

Why do you think nobody applied for a single secondary market that didn't touch Miami/Lauderdale except for Frontier and Sun Country, which I wouldn't be surprised never launch.

Except that HAV isn't just a VFR market. It has a leisure component, and also a business component. Last year 150k US visitors traveled, and this year will be more than that. This makes Cuba equivalent to islands like BGI and SLU in terms of its US leisure market. Most of this will be into HAV, or VRA.

UVF gets DL with daily service from ATL. PUJ gets service from several points other than the NY area and SoFL. So yes ATL and CLT will work for HAV. In fact Cubans live all over the USA, not just in SoFL, and these Cubans will need to access hubs with high connectivity, given that capacity from MIA will not ne enough. I hardly think that filling 6D flights on the MIA HAV will be a huge issue.

I remain skeptical of the longevity of DLs MIA HAV route. This will be their only Caribbean route out of MIA. I expect their exit as soon as the market liberalizes and AA is able to run as many flights as they wish. I don't see how 1D can compete with an airline which will eventually have many flights scattered through the day.

I know very well it is more than just a VFR market. The market will still be very limited and demand very tiny outside of South Florida as long as visa resitrctions remain in place.

UVF and PUJ are entirely irrelevant to this conversation - they are developed tourist markets from the United States.

Delta will have no problem lasting on MIAHAV. I would not be surprised if they apply to move ATLHAV to a second MIAHAV frequency after a year, when traffic outside of NYC, Tampa and South Florida fails to materialize.

aaflyer777 wrote:

CLT is a dumb add, anyone traveling to HAV could easily connect through MIA. Also kind of surprised theres no IAD-HAV, did anyone apply for that?

I can't believe all the comments about how CLT was such a bad choice!

DL and F9 were awarded MIA to keep prices competitive. CLT is one of the cheapest connecting points in AA's system so don't for a second think the DOT doesn't know the impact CLT-HAV is going to have on DL's ATL-HAV pricing.

aaflyer777 wrote:

CLT is a dumb add, anyone traveling to HAV could easily connect through MIA. Also kind of surprised theres no IAD-HAV, did anyone apply for that?

Actually, its not that strange. There will be demand from smaller cities in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic that don't have direct service to MIA on AA, or even to FLL on B6.

AVL, GSP, CRW, etc.



in terms of FLL vs MIA demand. Don't forget, AA and DL both have the option to put widebodies on this route if need be.

crAAzy wrote:

CLT is one of the cheapest connecting points in AA's system so don't for a second think the DOT doesn't know the impact CLT-HAV is going to have on DL's ATL-HAV pricing.

Perhaps, although I think both of these will essentially function as the connecting point for "everything else" that isn't one of the actual Cuba-relevant O&D markets (essentially MIA/FLL, MCO, TPA, NYC and LAX). And I agree that since the two hubs are basically right next to each other, both are largely irrelevant to Cuba O&D and both will serve a similar function as primarily connecting airports, they will likely discipline each other.

spinkid wrote:

Actually, its not that strange. There will be demand from smaller cities in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic that don't have direct service to MIA on AA, or even to FLL on B6.

AVL, GSP, CRW, etc.

I am highly skeptical that there will be much of any O&D to/from HAV - or really anywhere else in Cuba for that matter - from most of the CLT-only AA markets in the eastern U.S. Indeed, five years from now, I suspect that if you we sum the O&D to/from Cuba from every single city AA serves from CLT but not MIA, it will amount to less than 10% (maybe even 5%) of total U.S.-HAV demand. I suspect that U.S.-HAV demand is and will remain incredibly concentrated in a few cities - every one of which has multiple daily flights to MIA, and all of which - not coincidentally - have just been awarded a nonstop to HAV on at least one if not multiple airline/s.

spinkid wrote:

in terms of FLL vs MIA demand. Don't forget, AA and DL both have the option to put widebodies on this route if need be.

True, although it's much easier and lower-cost for AA to do it - if (big if) it was deemed economically efficient - than Delta. Delta may schedule widebodies in and out of MIA at times, and operate them there even more frequently as subs, etc. But AA has literally dozens of widebodies per day in and out of MIA, including many aircraft that sit around all day long in between turns to/from South America or Europe. It is incredibly easy and bears quite a low opportunity cost for AA to simply send an airplane on a relatively short run during the day - thus why AA has done just that to numerous markets in the Caribbean and Latin America over the years including, among others, PAP, SDQ, MBJ, SJO, CCS, POS, BGI and of course SJU.

ScottB wrote:

Sure, I'd just love to experience the poverty brought on by a failed control economy first-hand! Then again, the Cubans with the party connections necessary to have relatively unfettered internet access and the ability to accept payments from a U.S. company like AirBNB probably live pretty nicely. (Plus, the dollars earned would go a much longer way there.)

It's comments like this that re-assure my worry of Americans ruining the cultural charm of Cuba in the near future. Having been multiple times to multiple spots in Cuba and staying in both high end resorts and Casa Particular's, Cuba is a wonderful country with wonderful people and beautiful scenery. The average American doesn't have a clue about Cuba. You'd be amazed that almost every Cuban, with the exception of rural Cuba, has a cell phone, TV & radios, vehicles etc. and people who are better off have laptops and PC's. Cuba is one of the leading countries for medical advancements in the world, and has government provided health care and an almost non-existent crime rate. But yeah, go on about how they are in poverty... For those wishing to see the real Cuba I suggest visiting as soon as possible, the presence of America is slowly creeping it's was to the island, 3 months ago on my trip to Havana I saw Stonegate Bank ATM's and I was able to buy a Coca-Cola.

MAH4546 wrote:

I know very well it is more than just a VFR market. The market will still be very limited and demand very tiny outside of South Florida as long as visa resitrctions remain in place.

UVF and PUJ are entirely irrelevant to this conversation - they are developed tourist markets from the United States.

Delta will have no problem lasting on MIAHAV. I would not be surprised if they apply to move ATLHAV to a second MIAHAV frequency after a year, when traffic outside of NYC, Tampa and South Florida fails to materialize.

UVF is quite relevant as it will attract fewer non VFR US visitors than will Cuba in 2016. Almost all of these non VFR visitors to Cuba will be into HAV. UVF can support a daily ATL flight, so why cannot HAV, which is considerably closer? This summer AA is running 6W CLT UVF, so why can't HAV support a daily flight to HAV?

I can only wonder why you think that HAV cannot absorb 6 daily flights from points beyond FL, only 3 of which are from points outside of NY. Of the 20D flights 14D are from FL, 3D from NY, and only 3D from the entirety of the rest of the USA.

The only route I am skeptical about will be the daily LAX HAV. We will see how that one goes. ATL CLT will work because MIA FLL will be insufficient to accommodate the market.

FACT. 1/3 of all Cuban Americans live outside of FL.
FACT. There is increasing leisure travel to Cuba, and this will definitely accelerate once Hillary replaces Obama.

While I think that Cuba attracting I million US leisure travelers in the near term is a fantasy, to think that they cannot significantly increase numbers above the 160k recorded last year is equally ludicrous. As people realize that travel involves less bureaucracy than it once did the numbers will gradually increase. These aren't going to be the all inclusive CAN, MBJ, PUJ visitors.

ryan78 wrote:

It's comments like this that re-assure my worry of Americans ruining the cultural charm of Cuba in the near future. Having been multiple times to multiple spots in Cuba and staying in both high end resorts and Casa Particular's, Cuba is a wonderful country with wonderful people and beautiful scenery. The average American doesn't have a clue about Cuba. You'd be amazed that almost every Cuban, with the exception of rural Cuba, has a cell phone, TV & radios, vehicles etc. and people who are better off have laptops and PC's. Cuba is one of the leading countries for medical advancements in the world, and has government provided health care and an almost non-existent crime rate. But yeah, go on about how they are in poverty... For those wishing to see the real Cuba I suggest visiting as soon as possible, the presence of America is slowly creeping it's was to the island, 3 months ago on my trip to Havana I saw Stonegate Bank ATM's and I was able to buy a Coca-Cola.

If Cubans are so affluent, as you claim (others say otherwise, with their putrid $20month wages) and they wish to consume US products then who are you to deprive them of this?

In any case that much vaunted free health care is a myth. Free yes, but you would prefer to use the facilities which are NOT free if you fell seriously ill.

ScottB wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

And will any US carrier RON/overnight aircraft in HAV?

The only flight which would seem remotely likely to RON at HAV might be AS due to the length of the flight from LAX -- but I could just as easily see it operated as a red-eye turn.

The AS crew might RON, but the aircraft will not.

A couple of points/questions...

First, I didn't didn't notice glancing through, but AA currently has a LAX-HAV flight. Not sure how often it goes, but I have seen it going out or coming in several times. Does that go away once AS starts, or are both flights going to operate?

Second, CLT is the US Caribbean hub, so it makes sense that it was chosen. As much as I would have preferred it go to PHL, operationally, CLT makes sense.

Jeff

aaflyer777 wrote:

CLT is a dumb add, anyone traveling to HAV could easily connect through MIA. Also kind of surprised theres no IAD-HAV, did anyone apply for that?

CLT serves 70 Destinations that MIA doesnt.

and has government provided health care and an almost non-existent crime rate.

Sure, all you need to do to achieve that is have a totalitarian government. I'll pass.

avi8 wrote:

Very excited that TPA will get its first ever WN international service. Is there enough demand to fill all of these daily flights??? That's A TON of capacity to HAV.

The TPA metro area has the 3rd most Cuban-Americans in the US, more than double that of the Orlando metro area.

Rank Place Total population in 2013 Cuban-American population in 2013
1 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 5,673,185 1,017,855
2 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 19,716,880 145,336
3 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2,819,241 93,553
4 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 12,945,252 49,014
5 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2,183,363 42,904
6 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 9,488,493 23,108
7 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 633,968 21,960
8 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5,379,176 21,324
9 Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL 328,209 20,947
10 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 1,976,925 20,857
11 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 6,063,540 19,675
12 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,759,330 16,982
13 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5,992,766 12,953
14 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4,285,443 12,015
15 Jacksonville, FL 1,363,610 11,963
16 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6,575,833 11,350
17 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 610,295 10,720
18 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 4,604,278 10,414
19 Key West, FL 74,213 9,120
20 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 712,581 8,665

Boof02671 wrote:

CLT serves 70 Destinations that MIA doesnt.

Indeed it does, with the vast majority of those 70 destinations being pretty much irrelevant and meaningless to Cuba.

As has been discussed at length numerous times, the vast majority of demand to Cuba - particularly unless and until travel restrictions are lifted - is going to be concentrated in a very small number of U.S. metro areas, every single one of which has multiple daily flights to MIA and every single one of which will soon have at least one, if not multiple, daily nonstop flights to Cuba.

It is true that ATL and CLT will serve to cater to the tiny portion of the demand coming from outside these metro areas, plus lap up excess demand coming from those metro areas that cannot get a seat, or cannot get a competitively-priced seat, on one of the nonstops.

Prost wrote:

Will AirBnB be an option in Havana? I'd think that would be a great way for Cubans to enrich themselves in the near term, and it'd be a great way to enmesh yourself in to the Cuban lifestyle.

I stayed at an AirBnB in April in Central Havana. It was one of the best travel experiences I have ever had. For $40/night got a comfortable room, friendly host and dedicated tour guide all included. I highly recommending AirBnB when planning to go to Cuba, not to mention it helps the actual citizens rather than the government who owns the hotels.

weaglibrium wrote:

iahcsr wrote:

I'm wondering if HAV really has the infrastructure to handle all these flights.

HAV has handled in the past year as many as 58 scheduled departures. Peak day charter departures also hover around 14 daily, and those are due to evaporate in short order once scheduled service begins. So, this is a net increase of something less than 6 daily flights. I doubt that's going to break the airport.

Also, the average gauge is 156 seats - just about the same size as proposed by these new services. This shouldn't be an issue.

Also, let's not forget that the world never stopped visiting Cuba - they have 11 peak day widebody flights to Europe. The infrastructure is there.

I was there very recently. They really don't have the infrastructure. They have the new international terminal, which had every gate full. Not sure where these flights go...but timing will be key.

Secondly, service is pretty lousy. Expect every departure to be late, whatever sit time they put on the ground. Airlines are really going to have to pad aircraft routing to account for a HAV turn.

Thirdly, I didn't see one Cubana plane moving or flying. They have a Cubana grave yard next to the hangar with various aircraft in mutilated states. No way Cubana matches this frequency in one swoop.



This is all a moot point though. This is a lot of service all at once. And I don't expect it all to survive short term. LAX is the first ax that comes to mind.

jfklganyc wrote:

1-I was there very recently. They really don't have the infrastructure. They have the new international terminal, which had every gate full. Not sure where these flights go...but timing will be key.

2-Secondly, service is pretty lousy. Expect every departure to be late, whatever sit time they put on the ground. Airlines are really going to have to pad aircraft routing to account for a HAV turn.

3-Thirdly, I didn't see one Cubana plane moving or flying. They have a Cubana grave yard next to the hangar with various aircraft in mutilated states. No way Cubana matches this frequency in one swoop.

4- This is all a moot point though. This is a lot of service all at once. And I don't expect it all to survive short term. LAX is the first ax that comes to mind.

1-There is a project going on as we speak to double the amount of gates for Terminal 3 (International Terminal). I imagine once this building is finished all US flights will be transferred to that terminal. Right now as you said timinng will be the key, the majority of flights leaving from terminal 3 are to Europe, so late afternoon arrivals with an early evening departures.

2-Terminal 2 (US flights) could be more efficienly used, totally agree with your statement. I imagine once the US airlines had a better grasp on the operations there , the efficiency of the process will improve. Right now is just the charter company hiring the checking agents.

3-The main reason why Cubana cannot flight to the US yet is because pending suits to the Cuban government by US citizens and companies. It is my understanding that during the conversations between the US and Cuba the possibility of codesharing was discussed to avoid any issues related to this matter

4-Some of the awarded routes will not survive, but I think LAX is not one of them. Los Angeles area has the 4th largest Cuban concentration in the US, there is a healthy amount of traffic between the Western US to Cuba as we speak. LAX-HAV exists now as a weekly charter and it had been operated for many years by different airlines. I could imagine a reduction of frequency from daily to several times a week, but I think this is a route that will survive and hopefully the demand will be estimulated by these flights

peteinmiami wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

1-I was there very recently. They really don't have the infrastructure. They have the new international terminal, which had every gate full. Not sure where these flights go...but timing will be key.

2-Secondly, service is pretty lousy. Expect every departure to be late, whatever sit time they put on the ground. Airlines are really going to have to pad aircraft routing to account for a HAV turn.

3-Thirdly, I didn't see one Cubana plane moving or flying. They have a Cubana grave yard next to the hangar with various aircraft in mutilated states. No way Cubana matches this frequency in one swoop.

4- This is all a moot point though. This is a lot of service all at once. And I don't expect it all to survive short term. LAX is the first ax that comes to mind.

1-There is a project going on as we speak to double the amount of gates for Terminal 3 (International Terminal). I imagine once this building is finished all US flights will be transferred to that terminal. Right now as you said timinng will be the key, the majority of flights leaving from terminal 3 are to Europe, so late afternoon arrivals with an early evening departures.

2-Terminal 2 (US flights) could be more efficienly used, totally agree with your statement. I imagine once the US airlines had a better grasp on the operations there , the efficiency of the process will improve. Right now is just the charter company hiring the checking agents.

3-The main reason why Cubana cannot flight to the US yet is because pending suits to the Cuban government by US citizens and companies. It is my understanding that during the conversations between the US and Cuba the possibility of codesharing was discussed to avoid any issues related to this matter

4-Some of the awarded routes will not survive, but I think LAX is not one of them. Los Angeles area has the 4th largest Cuban concentration in the US, there is a healthy amount of traffic between the Western US to Cuba as we speak. LAX-HAV exists now as a weekly charter and it had been operated for many years by different airlines. I could imagine a reduction of frequency from daily to several times a week, but I think this is a route that will survive and hopefully the demand will be estimulated by these flights

Short term I see there being a lot of vacation traffic. Overtime it will just turn into another Caribbean island and then I think it will have issues.

Folks got to understand that while HAV isn't CUN, MBJ, or PUJ it isn't PAP either.  There is  increasing non VFR leisure and rapidly increasing business travel.  CLT and ATL will have around 300 seats daily.

 I really cannot see why filling those planes on the limit flights out of points other than SoFL will be such a huge project.  Yes I don't expect the LAX HAV to remain daily for too long, but that is the only route that will be tough.

Already more non VFR tourists travel to Cuba from the USA to UVF, and it isn't a stretch that with improved accessability these numbers might significantly increase.  Especially as it no longer means the expensive and unreliable charters, or detours through third countries, or expensive bureaucracy.  With virtual self certification for compliance purposes its easier for Americans to go.  Not the all inclusive CUN set but then not all Americans are like that.  I can well see the types who visit Spain or Morocco traveling to Cuba.

Indeed it will not be that long before HAV gets the 300k US leisure visitors that SXM gets.  Almost all of this travel into Cuba will be into SXM.  Its the non HAV routes which will have to be almost solely SoFL focused.

Any idea if a Canadian could go on these flights and not have to deal with any of the "person to person" requirements still in the US for travel to Cuba?

CAPA has a detailed article on the allocation results. Out of the Top 10 Cuban-American diaspora metros, SoFL accounts for 71% of the population. DOT allocating 60% of frequencies is definitely slightly lower than diaspora distribution, but it's not drastically below. If by pure population, SoFL should get 14 instead of 12.

LAX should get 0.8x of a frequency by diaspora distribution (its "fair share"), so the 1.0x daily to AS isn't all that far fetched. On the flip side, TPA's fare share is 1.2x but got just 1.0x. NYC came out as a winner by get 3.0x daily against a fair share of 1.94x.

* of course, this "fair share" metric is purely by Cuban-Americans per airport catchment area, and nothing related to existing PDEW figures.

There was an article in the Chicago Tribune about the fact that ORD didn't get any flights, even though UA and AA both applied for ORD-HAV service. But, UA put IAH ahead of ORD, while AA put CLT ahead of ORD.

Of course, Illinois politicians are upset that there will be service to other smaller cities in Cuba from ORD, but no non-stop service to HAV.

ckfred wrote:

There was an article in the Chicago Tribune about the fact that ORD didn't get any flights, even though UA and AA both applied for ORD-HAV service. But, UA put IAH ahead of ORD, while AA put CLT ahead of ORD.

Of course, Illinois politicians are upset that there will be service to other smaller cities in Cuba from ORD, but no non-stop service to HAV.

There will not be several other cities. Frontier will fly to Varadero once a week. That's all.

Frontier will have "one-stop" service to Santiago de Cuba via Miami.