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gregn21
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The Future of Turkish Airlines

Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:06 pm

What will become of Turkish Airlines after the recent attacks and unrest in Turkey. TK has built itself up around its giant hub in Istanbul. People no longer want to visit Turkey, or have connections in Istanbul after what happened, particularly the attack on the airport. The way I see it, there is going to be a very large decrease in O&D and connecting traffic coming within the next few years. What is the next step for TK? How will they deal with the steep decrease in demand? Lastly, will they relocate their Istanbul hub, and could we possibly see a merger along the way?
 
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Aeroflot777
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:34 pm

gregn21 wrote:
Lastly, will they relocate their Istanbul hub


No.

gregn21 wrote:
People no longer want to visit Turkey, or have connections in Istanbul after what happened, particularly the attack on the airport.


Is this speculation or are there hard number facts? Seems like a rather large assumption here. Turkish has a huge operation and most of their flights are restored at this point. Brussels airport had an attack recently too. Istanbul isn't the only large airport hit in the past few years.

gregn21 wrote:
How will they deal with the steep decrease in demand?


I think it's a bit too early to talk about steep decreases in demand. Things will dip after attacks, naturally, but that is no indicator of future developments.

gregn21 wrote:
The way I see it, there is going to be a very large decrease in O&D and connecting traffic coming within the next few years.


Why do you say that? How do we know what will happen in the next few years? I don't mean to disagree at all, just want to understand why you are pointing to steep demand changes and large decreases for future years.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:39 pm

TK is Turkeys only global airline. It's 49% owned by the government and they can't afford to let it go under or take large hits. Also, Istanbul is by far the largest and most important (economically) city in the country, with a mega airport being tailor made for TK. There's too much riding on TK to fail for the government.

I think a lot of TKs future success is Turkeys status in NATO. If Erdogan really does become the radical dictator like everyone is predicting, I can see strained relations with the US and the rest of NATO. You will see the writing on the wall if the US shuts down Incirlik, which honestly can be replaced with a carrier group in the Mediterranean or Persian Gulf, as well as existing US military infrastructure in Iraq.
When wasn't America great?


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enilria
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 12:03 am

It's gonna hurt and it will cost them money, but if it subsides they will be fine after a couple of bad quarters. If the terror and coups persists every month then there is a point it would kill TK, but it is far away...and they would probably be bailed out legally or not.
 
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thekorean
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 12:26 am

Yes, TK will relocate their hub...to the new Istanbul airport.
 
solarflyer22
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 12:37 am

This just looks like a total train wreck. Aside from the attacks at the airport, the lack of a stable government, general fear is going to damage TK severely. There are still 3.5 million refugees in Syria, ISIS, Kurdish rebels, creeping Islamization, a porous border and what will soon be a collapsing economy. I wouldn't want to fly TK or connect through Istanbul. If the purge continues, which I think it will, Turkey might get forced out of NATO and probably out of many of its EU agreements. They will not be able to sell tickets at a price that is profitable and will have to cut prices dramatically to entice people. At that point, you just got planes on the tarmac sitting.
 
hayzel777
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 2:36 am

solarflyer22 wrote:
This just looks like a total train wreck. Aside from the attacks at the airport, the lack of a stable government, general fear is going to damage TK severely. There are still 3.5 million refugees in Syria, ISIS, Kurdish rebels, creeping Islamization, a porous border and what will soon be a collapsing economy. I wouldn't want to fly TK or connect through Istanbul. If the purge continues, which I think it will, Turkey might get forced out of NATO and probably out of many of its EU agreements. They will not be able to sell tickets at a price that is profitable and will have to cut prices dramatically to entice people. At that point, you just got planes on the tarmac sitting.


TK is the countries flagship carrier. They have a 49% stake in TK. They won't let them just slip like that. Most flagship carriers r not profitable, yet still seem to be flying fine. Government subsidies r TKs answer to the decreasing demand.
 
Beatyair
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:39 am

Lots of departures and not a lot of arrivals.
What a mess that place is currently, with judges and teachers being rounded up. A person saying that they will pay, is that not up to evidence and a judge to decide? Not a place I want to go and governments are telling there citizens not to go.
I hope they do ok, by that I mean the great people of Turkey.
 
Travelmanager
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:44 am

thekorean wrote:
Yes, TK will relocate their hub...to the new Istanbul airport.


:lol:
 
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adamblang
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:52 am

gregn21 wrote:
People no longer want to visit Turkey, or have connections in Istanbul after what happened, particularly the attack on the airport.

I still want to visit Turkey or have connection in Istanbul because I understand probability and won't be intimidated by random acts of violence.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:52 am

I think the prospect of a hardline Erdogan dictatorship will discourage me from buying tickets on THY again. The idea of subsidizing his regime is not appealing even though THY is the most convenient airline between Houston and my wife's hometown of Odessa, Ukraine. It's the only airline with just one stop service, and there's only a 2 hour connection each way.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 5:31 am

adamblang wrote:
I still want to visit Turkey or have connection in Istanbul because I understand probability and won't be intimidated by random acts of violence.

Mathematically reasonable... but then again, same essentially applies to Yemen or Somalia as well.

Point being: tourism travel is often an emotional consideration, not a numerically-driven one. If people perceive there to be a heightened danger, they're going to avoid.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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seahawk
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:22 am

The Erdogan government will continue their course of economic growth and Turkey will become the political and economic centre of the Middle East. Furthermore the president Erdogan will destroy the terrorists and the enemies of Turkey within Turkey, so that tourists will be save again and get to enjoy the beaches, cities and monuments of Turkey again. TK will grow quite a lot.
 
B777LRF
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:21 am

seahawk wrote:
The Erdogan government will continue their course of economic growth and Turkey will become the political and economic centre of the Middle East. Furthermore the president Erdogan will destroy the terrorists and the enemies of Turkey within Turkey, so that tourists will be save again and get to enjoy the beaches, cities and monuments of Turkey again. TK will grow quite a lot.


Well, someone certainly took a large sip off the propaganda bowl!

1: Turkey's economic growth is more than surpassed by rampant devaluation of the Lira, resulting in a net decline for the average Turk.
2: Turkey is on a path of alienation of old friends in Europe, in favour of cozying up to Islamism. That will only result in Turkey being marginalised, not a becoming a 'centre'
3: Erdogan will only 'destroy' the 'terrorists' who does not share his view. In other words, he'll keep supporting IS by purchasing their oil, whilst attempting to crush his own citizens who clamour for increased autonomy, e.g. the Kurds
4: Russia has lifted the ban, right in time for most of the rest of the world to introduce advisories. The US has closed all services between it and Turkey.

Turkey's well in the sh1tter, and digging itself deeper every day Erdogan is holding the reins. He'll purge education, military and healthcare of anyone who's not a loyal Islamist, at which point the whole shebang will implode as the (western world) turns its back on, yet another, failed Islamist state. *Grow quite a lot'? Hmm, I don't think so, not unless there's democratic regime change in Turkey!
Signature. You just read one.
 
AirbusA6
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 9:33 am

The ambitious plans to promote Istanbul as a connecting hub will surely be affected? Given a choice, who would choose to connect in IST when there are other alternatives, which will obviously impact THY hard.

I hasten to add, they won't lose all this business, but a drop of 25% in connecting passengers will have a massive affect
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)
 
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mafaky
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 9:42 am

Well, to be honest, TK has several handicaps for the near and medium-term future:

1) TK already has a considerable fleet and in some way they have to maintain that fleet and keep it flying. TK's main strategy has been to offer multiple daily frequencies to many European and some Middle East (Tel Aviv & Tehran, by the most) destinatons, as well as flying at least once daily to many destinations within a radius of say 4.000 km around IST. I'm afraid that the will have to axe some of these, starting with W16.

2) There are some more factory fresh aircraft to be delivered in 2016, and some more in 2017 (inc. 10 widebodies...). Still more currently planned for 2018-2019-2020-2021 (but almost only narrow bodies for these 4 years...). They will have to postpone some of these and probably will have to refrain to announce new and already delayed (particularly) widebody orders for 2021 and onwards delivery.

3) To make things worse, TK will have to spend a huuuuge budget when re-locating to the new Istanbul Airport. They will not be relocating as easily and inexpensively as the other international airlines that will also relocate. They will have to carry out their everything from the current IST; not only the terminal facilities & operations. They will even have to build a totally new HQ building in the perimeter of the new Airport. Naturally this cannot be achieved overnight and will probably take place between 2017-2025 or so (assuming the new Airport will become operational some time in 2018...). But again, this will be a very big financial burden for TK.

But being the flag-carrier of Turkey they have to survive incurring minimum overall losses for the next 5 years, or so... :( :evil:
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
behramjee
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:02 am

I would suggest the following effective 26SEP onwards which should be extended throughout the IATA W16 season (until 25MAR17):

1. JFK to be reduced from 3 to 2 daily using a B77W only and then daily only for entire W16 season
2. LAX & KUL to be reduced from 2 to 1 daily using a B77W only
3. IAD to be reduced from 10/11 weekly to daily only
4. ICN to be reduced to a daily nonstop service only
5. Australia launch should be pushed back to IATA W17 season
6. CDG/LHR/FRA/AMS should have one less daily frequency each respectively
7. KHI to be reduced from double daily B738s to daily A332
8. MLE to be reduced from 10 weekly to daily A333
9. TPE to be reduced to a daily service only using a B77W

Remember now for the next 3 months, Turkey is under an official "state of emergency" which is more or less like martial law and the likely hood it gets extended for another month or two is 50-50 !
 
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OA940
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:17 am

seahawk wrote:
The Erdogan government will continue their course of economic growth and Turkey will become the political and economic centre of the Middle East. Furthermore the president Erdogan will destroy the terrorists and the enemies of Turkey within Turkey, so that tourists will be save again and get to enjoy the beaches, cities and monuments of Turkey again. TK will grow quite a lot.


Too much propaganda here mate. Erdogan isn't a superhero. He doesn't have a comic or a movie. He is a dictator (-ish) and he is trying to kinda do some bad things for the country, like cut off the EU and western world relations and force islam to the country. That will make Turkey isolated, not the centre of the ME. And even if he tried to do the opposite, in the ME there still is the UAE and Qatar sooooooo... no centre for Turkey. Despite that Turkey still has a lot of tourism (mainly for Istanbul) so the goverment should try to increase tourism. It's hard to find all the terrorists in a country. Very hard. But security can fix things. France has done it and since the Paris attacks there haven't been many others, and AF is running without much problem. And, as mentioned before, the goverment will preserve its flag carrier, because chances are it has invested A LOT into it. TK will be fine, eventually. They just need to play smart and adapt to the changes.
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tonystan
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:49 pm

It's a bit early days to be getting all hysterical about what may happen to THY isn't it?
My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
 
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Polot
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 2:08 pm

tonystan wrote:
It's a bit early days to be getting all hysterical about what may happen to THY isn't it?

Hysterical as in if/when TK will go out of business? yes.

But TK will be affected by recent events. In the span of less than a month 44 people were killed at TK's main hub in a terrorist attack, and a failed coup attempt occurred that resulted in chaos at the airport. This is in addition to several other terrorist attacks that have occurred in Turkey over the past year or so. Visitors don't like vacationing or connecting in areas that they feel to be unsafe or unstable (you really don't want to be stuck in a foreign country while an attempted unauthorized regime change is going on), so TK's traffic will be impacted.

Quite reasonable to postulate this early just how much TK will be impacted.
 
incitatus
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 2:29 pm

[quote="seahawk"]The Erdogan government will continue their course of economic growth and Turkey will become the political and economic centre of the Middle East. quote]

Turkey is a very important country in the region. But as the deck stands right now, the economic center of the Gulf is going to be the UAE. Erdogan is getting in the way of this own ambitions for Turkey.

The future of Turkish is dependent on what happens from now on. TW800 helped sink TWA. In the 1990s in the US, USAir had a string of crashes and passengers avoided them for a long time. Memory of a single event is short, but in Turkey now we had an airport attack followed by an attempted coup. If more events reinforce Turkey's image as an unsafe place, that will stick in the public's mind and it will be hard to change it.

For those of you saying the public doesn't care, try to go out there and sell a few tickets on Iraqi Airways connecting in Baghdad.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
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seahawk
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:19 pm

Turkey is perfectly save for tourists. This is just a case of fear created by the lies of western media in an attempt to bring down the great president Erdogan.
 
winginit
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:46 pm

seahawk wrote:
Turkey is perfectly save for tourists. This is just a case of fear created by the lies of western media in an attempt to bring down the great president Erdogan.


I'll be the first to say that the danger associated with the region is overblown, but I'm not sure the recent fear has been created by lies of the western media. It's been created by... you know... the recent coup attempt that killed hundreds of people by some counts... remember that?
 
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seahawk
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:29 pm

Did we discuss the future of Air France? The future is not in the hands of TK. The airline did nothing wrong, the rest is politics and only the future will tell what will happen in that field.
 
thaiflyer
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:31 pm

seahawk wrote:
Turkey is perfectly save for tourists. This is just a case of fear created by the lies of western media in an attempt to bring down the great president Erdogan.


Are you serious? Open your eyes.
Your quote is something more for the N Korea.
 
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WildcatYXU
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:37 pm

thaiflyer wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Turkey is perfectly save for tourists. This is just a case of fear created by the lies of western media in an attempt to bring down the great president Erdogan.


Are you serious? Open your eyes.
Your quote is something more for the N Korea.


He's not. He's doing exactly what he was doing in Brexit debates. He's writing what an Erdogan supporter would say.
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DolphinAir747
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:37 pm

B777LRF wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The Erdogan government will continue their course of economic growth and Turkey will become the political and economic centre of the Middle East. Furthermore the president Erdogan will destroy the terrorists and the enemies of Turkey within Turkey, so that tourists will be save again and get to enjoy the beaches, cities and monuments of Turkey again. TK will grow quite a lot.


Well, someone certainly took a large sip off the propaganda bowl!


Do not doubt the Great Unquestioned Wisdom of the Dear Eternal Leader Descended Directly From Heaven.

Why is everyone taking these posts at face value when they're so obviously sarcastic?

TK will probably be hurt less in the African and Middle Eastern market, since Turkey will continue to have a large footprint there and people there are, generally speaking, less easily intimidated by security threats.
 
tonystan
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:53 pm

This thread runs the risk of falling into a pit of people who don't understand sarcasm and those who lack a sense of humour!
My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
 
aviationaware
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:56 pm

seahawk wrote:
Turkey is perfectly save for tourists. This is just a case of fear created by the lies of western media in an attempt to bring down the great president Erdogan.


Seems like we can rename Turkey to Fantasy Land and TK into Fantasy Airways.

Don't hit your head when you wake up to the fact that Erdogan is Hitler Lite.
 
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seahawk
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 5:06 pm

WildcatYXU wrote:
thaiflyer wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Turkey is perfectly save for tourists. This is just a case of fear created by the lies of western media in an attempt to bring down the great president Erdogan.


Are you serious? Open your eyes.
Your quote is something more for the N Korea.


He's not. He's doing exactly what he was doing in Brexit debates. He's writing what an Erdogan supporter would say.


No, this is what Turkish officials say. There was a recent interview with a mayor of a town near Antalya on the radio today and that is what he said. Obviously he would be stupid to say anything different today. But in the end it is a political topic. TK as an airline did nothing wrong. No safety problems, no huge delays, no bomb on an aircraft, so imho this whole topic should be called, "what will happen in Turkey" and not the future of Turkish Airlines.
 
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PerfectGriffin
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 5:50 pm

I'm sure TK will recover, but I think for the next few months loads will suffer. But since the government owns half of the airline, there isn't too much to worry about.
 
aviationaware
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:16 pm

seahawk wrote:
No, this is what Turkish officials say. There was a recent interview with a mayor of a town near Antalya on the radio today and that is what he said. Obviously he would be stupid to say anything different today. But in the end it is a political topic. TK as an airline did nothing wrong. No safety problems, no huge delays, no bomb on an aircraft, so imho this whole topic should be called, "what will happen in Turkey" and not the future of Turkish Airlines.


Are you really not able to extrapolate the events in Turkey to how those general conditions will impact TK? The turkish economy WILL suffer under a fascist Erdogan rule, there's no way around it, and with the turkish economy so will TK suffer.
 
Jetty
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:38 pm

I'm sure there will be purges of TK staff/managment allegedly tied to the Fethullah Terrorist Organization. TK is long rumored to have been infiltrated by the Fethullah Terrorist Organization and they even had a significant part of the shares at one point.

See here i.e.: "The Triangle of FETÖ, Bank Asya and Turkish Airlines" www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/bulentorak ... es-2010710
 
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WildcatYXU
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:51 pm

seahawk wrote:
No, this is what Turkish officials say. There was a recent interview with a mayor of a town near Antalya on the radio today and that is what he said. Obviously he would be stupid to say anything different today. But in the end it is a political topic. TK as an airline did nothing wrong. No safety problems, no huge delays, no bomb on an aircraft, so imho this whole topic should be called, "what will happen in Turkey" and not the future of Turkish Airlines.


Ok, understood. Thanks for the clarification. But meanwhile, what should we, ordinary people do? To fly TK or not to fly? This is the question.
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Qatara340
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:57 pm

aviationaware wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, this is what Turkish officials say. There was a recent interview with a mayor of a town near Antalya on the radio today and that is what he said. Obviously he would be stupid to say anything different today. But in the end it is a political topic. TK as an airline did nothing wrong. No safety problems, no huge delays, no bomb on an aircraft, so imho this whole topic should be called, "what will happen in Turkey" and not the future of Turkish Airlines.


Are you really not able to extrapolate the events in Turkey to how those general conditions will impact TK? The turkish economy WILL suffer under a fascist Erdogan rule, there's no way around it, and with the turkish economy so will TK suffer.


Pure bull and shows you severe lack of knowledge on politics. Erdogan is a democratically elected president of Turkey; Turkey is not a racist country. Its a NATO member, and a secular democracy. I do not know where you get your facts!

Erdogan was already the ruler for more than a decade and a half, and has transformed Turkey to the world's #16th largest economy. In less than a decade, per capita income in the country has nearly tripled and now exceeds $10, 500. Turkey is a member of the OECD and the G20 and NATO. Before you go on your Xenophobic rants, educate yourself on Turkey and then talk.
لا اله الا الله محمد رسول الله
 
Jetty
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:17 pm

Qatara340 wrote:
Erdogan is a democratically elected president of Turkey; Turkey is not a racist country. Its a NATO member, and a secular democracy.


"The mosques are our barracks,
the domes our helmets,
the minarets our bayonets,
and the believers our soldiers."

Dixit Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Doesn't sound very secular to me.
 
SCQ83
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:27 pm

DolphinAir747 wrote:
TK will probably be hurt less in the African and Middle Eastern market, since Turkey will continue to have a large footprint there and people there are, generally speaking, less easily intimidated by security threats.


I don't understand this logic.

Turkey had recently grown indeed as a very popular destination for Gulf nationals in the last few years. Partly due to the turmoil in Egypt or Syria, but also because of lax Visa regulations and of course TK flying to every airport in Saudi or Iran, and multiple daily flights to any major airport in the region.

But if IST is seen as a dangerous place, those Saudis or Central Asians might well go to Dubai or head to Europe for that bank holiday.

I have the impression that countries that will suffer less as those in Europe with more historical links. For instance Germany has an enormous VFR component, and last week it seemed clear that still plenty of Germans take holidays in Antalya or Bodrum. But other countries like Spain or the US that have weak links and the traffic had grown due to Turkish connections and the appeal of Istanbul (nobody from Spain or the US goes for a beach holiday in Turkey) might well go away.
 
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seahawk
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:49 pm

WildcatYXU wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, this is what Turkish officials say. There was a recent interview with a mayor of a town near Antalya on the radio today and that is what he said. Obviously he would be stupid to say anything different today. But in the end it is a political topic. TK as an airline did nothing wrong. No safety problems, no huge delays, no bomb on an aircraft, so imho this whole topic should be called, "what will happen in Turkey" and not the future of Turkish Airlines.


Ok, understood. Thanks for the clarification. But meanwhile, what should we, ordinary people do? To fly TK or not to fly? This is the question.


Flying TK, why not? So far there is no indication that their staff has been involved in any action. It is the same with holidays. Going to Antalya seems acceptable, Istanbul and Ankara might be a bit more risky. But then I never saw Turkey as an option for my own holidays, simply because I prefer a different kind of holidays.
 
Jetty
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:59 pm

seahawk wrote:
Flying TK, why not? So far there is no indication that their staff has been involved in any action.


According to media related to the ruling party TK has been infiltrated by the Fethullah Terrorist Organization which supposedly organised the coup as well. I don't believe this terrorist organisation even exists, but stating their is no indication TK is related is false.
 
aviationaware
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:36 pm

Qatara340 wrote:

Pure bull and shows you severe lack of knowledge on politics. Erdogan is a democratically elected president of Turkey; Turkey is not a racist country. Its a NATO member, and a secular democracy. I do not know where you get your facts!



You are from an islamist monarchy. You don't even know what the words secular and democracy mean, and your comment painfully illustrated that.

Frankly, I am really worried about the fact that millions of turks who live in Germany absolutely revere that wannabe Hitler - will get us big trouble in the future. Not good.
Last edited by aviationaware on Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
winginit
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:42 pm

Qatara340 wrote:
Pure bull and shows you severe lack of knowledge on politics. Erdogan is a democratically elected president of Turkey; Turkey is not a racist country. Its a NATO member, and a secular democracy. I do not know where you get your facts!

Erdogan was already the ruler for more than a decade and a half, and has transformed Turkey to the world's #16th largest economy. In less than a decade, per capita income in the country has nearly tripled and now exceeds $10, 500. Turkey is a member of the OECD and the G20 and NATO. Before you go on your Xenophobic rants, educate yourself on Turkey and then talk.


Just to be clear, we're talking about the guy who imprisoned a doctor for saying Erdogan looked like Gollum from Lord of the Rings right? Do I have that right?

Sounds like a winner.
 
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DolphinAir747
Posts: 1901
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Thu Jul 21, 2016 9:08 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
DolphinAir747 wrote:
TK will probably be hurt less in the African and Middle Eastern market, since Turkey will continue to have a large footprint there and people there are, generally speaking, less easily intimidated by security threats.


I don't understand this logic.

Turkey had recently grown indeed as a very popular destination for Gulf nationals in the last few years. Partly due to the turmoil in Egypt or Syria, but also because of lax Visa regulations and of course TK flying to every airport in Saudi or Iran, and multiple daily flights to any major airport in the region.

But if IST is seen as a dangerous place, those Saudis or Central Asians might well go to Dubai or head to Europe for that bank holiday.

I have the impression that countries that will suffer less as those in Europe with more historical links. For instance Germany has an enormous VFR component, and last week it seemed clear that still plenty of Germans take holidays in Antalya or Bodrum. But other countries like Spain or the US that have weak links and the traffic had grown due to Turkish connections and the appeal of Istanbul (nobody from Spain or the US goes for a beach holiday in Turkey) might well go away.


What I meant to say, and it was unclear, is that people in the US in particular, and also some European and East Asian countries, are often put off traveling to places because of greatly exaggerated fears whereas someone from, say, Nigeria, where terrorism and security threats have long been a fact of life are less likely to abruptly cancel their future plans to Turkey due to the news.
 
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seahawk
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Fri Jul 22, 2016 5:12 am

Jetty wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Flying TK, why not? So far there is no indication that their staff has been involved in any action.


According to media related to the ruling party TK has been infiltrated by the Fethullah Terrorist Organization which supposedly organised the coup as well. I don't believe this terrorist organisation even exists, but stating their is no indication TK is related is false.


But so far there are no reports of large scale arrests of TK staff. If this happens the situation at TK will have to be re-evaluated. At the moment this can be a short lived problem, if nothing major happens from now on, or turn into a crippling blow if Erdogan arrests the staff at TK, starts public executions and encourages supporters living in Europe to act against critics living in Europe. If the conflicts spills over onto European soil, tourism to Turkey will be dead for a long long time.
 
hayzel777
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Fri Jul 22, 2016 6:04 am

behramjee wrote:
I would suggest the following effective 26SEP onwards which should be extended throughout the IATA W16 season (until 25MAR17):

1. JFK to be reduced from 3 to 2 daily using a B77W only and then daily only for entire W16 season
2. LAX & KUL to be reduced from 2 to 1 daily using a B77W only
3. IAD to be reduced from 10/11 weekly to daily only
4. ICN to be reduced to a daily nonstop service only
5. Australia launch should be pushed back to IATA W17 season
6. CDG/LHR/FRA/AMS should have one less daily frequency each respectively
7. KHI to be reduced from double daily B738s to daily A332
8. MLE to be reduced from 10 weekly to daily A333
9. TPE to be reduced to a daily service only using a B77W

Remember now for the next 3 months, Turkey is under an official "state of emergency" which is more or less like martial law and the likely hood it gets extended for another month or two is 50-50 !


They already axed the TPE down to 5 a week using the 77W. There codeshare partner BR just suspended all there flights so wouldn't be surprised if it went back up to daily. They cut it down the day BR started service in march.
 
hayzel777
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Fri Jul 22, 2016 6:17 am

mafaky wrote:
Well, to be honest, TK has several handicaps for the near and medium-term future:

1) TK already has a considerable fleet and in some way they have to maintain that fleet and keep it flying. TK's main strategy has been to offer multiple daily frequencies to many European and some Middle East (Tel Aviv & Tehran, by the most) destinatons, as well as flying at least once daily to many destinations within a radius of say 4.000 km around IST. I'm afraid that the will have to axe some of these, starting with W16.

2) There are some more factory fresh aircraft to be delivered in 2016, and some more in 2017 (inc. 10 widebodies...). Still more currently planned for 2018-2019-2020-2021 (but almost only narrow bodies for these 4 years...). They will have to postpone some of these and probably will have to refrain to announce new and already delayed (particularly) widebody orders for 2021 and onwards delivery.

3) To make things worse, TK will have to spend a huuuuge budget when re-locating to the new Istanbul Airport. They will not be relocating as easily and inexpensively as the other international airlines that will also relocate. They will have to carry out their everything from the current IST; not only the terminal facilities & operations. They will even have to build a totally new HQ building in the perimeter of the new Airport. Naturally this cannot be achieved overnight and will probably take place between 2017-2025 or so (assuming the new Airport will become operational some time in 2018...). But again, this will be a very big financial burden for TK.

But being the flag-carrier of Turkey they have to survive incurring minimum overall losses for the next 5 years, or so... :( :evil:


The new airports plan already had the new HQ factored in. It is those office buildings off to the side. One of them is Tk's. The new terminal and things r being built with some areas custom for TK so there isn't a whole bunch of moving in terminal ops. As for ops, all they need to do is move the employees/equipment.
 
alfa164
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:32 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
THY is the most convenient airline between Houston and my wife's hometown of Odessa, Ukraine. It's the only airline with just one stop service, and there's only a 2 hour connection each way.

LH codeshares IAH-MUC-ODS, if you want to try that.
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mafaky
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Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:42 pm

hayzel777 wrote:
The new airports plan already had the new HQ factored in. It is those office buildings off to the side. One of them is Tk's. The new terminal and things r being built with some areas custom for TK so there isn't a whole bunch of moving in terminal ops. As for ops, all they need to do is move the employees/equipment.


I very much doubt these comments. Do you imply, that the BOT Consortium will construct a building for TK as HQ Site?

No, not at all!.... They will only provide a landpiece to TK (and they will surely rent the place at least for 25 years, or until the end of their 25-year operations contract) so that TK will be able to construct their HQ facility. This goes the same for every other building etc. that TK and/or any other Airline will build. In the present day, such facilities were built on the State owned land (at any airport in Turkey, inc. Ataturk/IST & Sabiha Gokcen/SAW. But in this first-ever BOT project, the 76.5 km2 land is totally given under the control of the IAG (BOT) Consortium. If you want to build a HQ building or set up a small hotdog stand, you'll have to purchase (or lease) the land from IAG.

The only other alternative is that TK can build its HQ Building outside this dedicated 76.5 km2 land.

In the unlikely case that you have other supporting evidence and more detailed plans (other than verbal examples) please do provide them so that we can all benefit... :?: :idea:

BTW: Do you honestly believe that TK will only remove just the equipment and related infrastructure plus the manpower from IST to the New Airport overnigh? And, whatever that will be available there will suffice the days' needs? I can bet my bottom dollar, that TK will keep using some of its facilities (particularly the MRO Facilities, training units, etc.) at IST for at least another 5 years starting from 2018 (the opening date of the New Airport) until they can comfortably accomodate themselves at the New Airport! :!: :!:
Last edited by mafaky on Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
alfa164
Posts: 3773
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:44 pm

[quote="seahawkBut so far there are no reports of large scale arrests of TK staff.[/quote]
I think you are missing the point. The mere mentions of the word "Turkey" conjures up visions of tanks in the city, fighting in the streets, and explosions at the airport. Those arte the scenes that foreigners have seen on the news, and that - coupled with the reports of mass arrests of anyone who disagrees with or fails to worship Der Fuhrer Erdogan - make Turkey a very uninviting place for most travelers.

Few people will want to visit - or even transit - Istanbul until things change drastically.
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
LX138
Posts: 319
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 5:45 pm

Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:37 pm

gregn21 wrote:
How will they deal with the steep decrease in demand?


I think it's a bit too early to talk about steep decreases in demand. Things will dip after attacks, naturally, but that is no indicator of future developments.[/quote]

I think that's a huge indicator is it not?! That instability of peace is one of the worst things an airline can hope for.

Someone was mentioned reducing JFK, IAD etc,. no - apart from the fact those flights are completely suspended indefinitely anyway for the time being, those are higher yield routes that they probably should keep. What TK is exposed to, is an enormous network of secondary and even third, forth tier cities and places where the yields are tiny. That coupled together with the fleet needed to service those routes is going to be a big operation to prop up should demand even drop by a fifth IMO.
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DolphinAir747
Posts: 1901
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:07 pm

Re: The Future of Turkish Airlines

Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:02 pm

LX138 wrote:

I think that's a huge indicator is it not?! That instability of peace is one of the worst things an airline can hope for.

Someone was mentioned reducing JFK, IAD etc,. no - apart from the fact those flights are completely suspended indefinitely anyway for the time being, those are higher yield routes that they probably should keep. What TK is exposed to, is an enormous network of secondary and even third, forth tier cities and places where the yields are tiny. That coupled together with the fleet needed to service those routes is going to be a big operation to prop up should demand even drop by a fifth IMO.


I thought the FAA ban had been lifted. I have to disagree with your assessment of yield, though. JFK and IAD are extremely competitive markets where TK sells many tickets connecting to Europe at very low prices (one could do a J class roundtrip from JFK to anywhere in Europe, via IST for $1800 this whole summer, pretty much, and Y is often available at around $600 to many destinations). Third-tier and fourth-tier cities are probably much higher-yielding because of the lack of competition, which gives TK the power to hike up its fares.

But yes, of course there will be a great decrease in demand as tourists and investors will avoid Turkey. Whether TK was directly involved in any political problems is irrelevant.

I have to say, I'm flabbergasted that AC still flies to IST. The fares on that are total trash.

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