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TWA302
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:05 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:


My personal wish list for WN out of STL would be:

BDL
PVD
BUR
CUN
MEX
PVR
ONT

But STL is one of those markets that seem to gain a few, lose a few with WN but who knows? Those 2 new gates on D won't sit idle for too long.


I see your wishes and mine are similar! I could see CUN being a seasonal add. PVR would be on my list too. I'd die to see NAS but that is a pipe dream for us...

I take the STL-MCI milk run each month and always shocked at the demand that little leg has.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:05 pm

jbmitt wrote:
No. I'm suggesting there are 3 RTs per station if DAY and CAK would be closed in favor of CVG. CVG - ATL would be DL hub to hub (being generous) but should be sufficient demand.


CAK and CLE are in the same market. Odds are any CAK closures would probably be spread out to CLE (or even a closer market like PIT) before CVG. Those pax aren't going to travel to CVG. WN could probably offer ATL service to both (CLE/CVG) markets, it's not an either/or situation.
 
phluser
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:45 pm

I'm kind of surprised that WN lacks BNA-MKE given that WN is the largest carrier at BNA and at MKE, and no carrier covers the route.

Airports are 475 miles apart which is far enough for driving and ideal stage length for WN's short-haul. To use Southwest between BNA and MKE is also challenging currently. Instead of one flying 475 miles that a nonstop might offer, the best itinery Southwest offers is: BNA-BWI-MKE itinery is about 1225 miles. Other itineries go through TPA and seem even more bizarre. Given BNA's economy and tourism being strong, I'd think there would be demand from MKE. MKE not only services it market, but is an alternate for Chicago and Madison, WI. Perhaps F9 needs to add it to stoke WN to be serving it.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:33 pm

phluser wrote:
Instead of one flying 475 miles that a nonstop might offer, the best itinery Southwest offers is: BNA-BWI-MKE itinery is about 1225 miles. Other itineries go through TPA and seem even more bizarre. Given BNA's economy and tourism being strong, I'd think there would be demand from MKE. MKE not only services it market, but is an alternate for Chicago and Madison, WI. Perhaps F9 needs to add it to stoke WN to be serving it.


Never mind the two one-stops as well as the MCI connection in the current schedule, and it's a little bit of an anomalous schedule. There are ordinarily many more connections through MCI and STL, and WN is far and away the least painful way to do BNA-MKE.
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enilria
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:45 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
jbmitt wrote:
enilria wrote:
PIT could be, but DCA-PIT is probably too short to make much sense. Perhaps CLE? RDU makes some sense, but is super-competitive. CVG would work pretty well if they flew there. They should mercy kill CAK and add CVG. BUF?


Could WN eliminate CAK and DAY at once and open CVG? 3 flights a day CVG to MDW (from DAY), 3 flights a day CVG to ATL (from CAK) plus adds to DCA, LGA, maybe BWI, STL, BNA, or DEN?


Are you suggesting the move from CAK to CVG for plane utilization? Because if it's just for serving pax/markets, CVG is about a 3.5-4 hour drive away from CAK and in a completely different market. It would make way more sense to move CAK-ATL to CLE (or even PIT) in this instance.

I second that DCA-PIT may not work because it would be very short flight but who knows.

I'm just suggesting they could move the plane. DAY and CVG are cross-substitutes, though.
 
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flymco753
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:08 pm

To get more opinions, say WN axes FNT flights, will that mean WN will transfer those flights to DTW? They have a seasonal MCO, TPA and RSW that would disappear.
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jbmitt
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:37 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
jbmitt wrote:
No. I'm suggesting there are 3 RTs per station if DAY and CAK would be closed in favor of CVG. CVG - ATL would be DL hub to hub (being generous) but should be sufficient demand.


CAK and CLE are in the same market. Odds are any CAK closures would probably be spread out to CLE (or even a closer market like PIT) before CVG. Those pax aren't going to travel to CVG. WN could probably offer ATL service to both (CLE/CVG) markets, it's not an either/or situation.


I never suggested anyone from CAK would travel to CVG, that is foolish. Yes, DAY and CVG have some overlap. CAK passengers will be lost as a result of NK setting up shop at CAK. WN already serves ATL from PIT and I doubt they would add 3 more flights to ATL in lieu of CAK. There must be a reason WN has not offered CLE - ATL. The point I was getting at is that both DAY and CAK serve single markets with WN. Pull the resources from both and place them at CVG and add a few more pieces in order to compete with DL and some of the other LCCs that have set up shop there.
enilria wrote:
I'm just suggesting they could move the plane. DAY and CVG are cross-substitutes, though.


yes. That is what I was getting at as well.

If/when WN sets up at CVG, it makes sense to close DAY, and allocate enough resources for multiple flights a day to key destinations. WN already has a lot of resources tied up with 733 retirements and international growth and this is a way to offer a market with more business travel than DAY or CAK have combined.
 
mtnwest1979
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:32 pm

If it makes sense to close DAY if serving CVG, why do all the other big guys serve both?
Riddle: Which lasts longer, a start-up airline or a start-up football league?
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:37 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
MSP-BNA, PDX-BNA would be good additions for both markets.


Would be nice. Any actual truth behind them?


They've both been speculated for a bit. Especially PDX-BNA. That flight is long overdue. The biggest holes for WN to fill in Nashville are MSP, PDX, and MKE. I honestly think we could see those soon enough.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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flyPIT
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:14 am

PIT-OAK is another good one for the rumor mill. The ACAA has stated in the local media they are pushing pretty hard for WN to start this one. Currently there is only 1 flight a day to the Bay Area from PIT that only operates 9 months of the year; and that flight is the only PIT-West Coast flight north of LAX.

enilria wrote:
PIT could be, but DCA-PIT is probably too short to make much sense.


izbtmnhd wrote:

I second that DCA-PIT may not work because it would be very short flight but who knows.


PIT-DCA is not shorter than PIT-BWI which operates 3-4 times daily depending on time of year. AA also serves PIT-DCA 4-5 times daily over the same distance. So its not the short distance that is an issue as much as the fact that WN already serves the Potomac region from PIT. OTOH AA is charging over $300 one way and unlike PIT-BWI (which is filled with connections) PIT-DCA would be primarily O&D. So I could see WN taking a chance on that route. Maybe reducing a BWI frequency at the same time.

PIT-LGA or EWR would be great too.
FLYi
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:28 am

southwest1675 wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
MSP-BNA, PDX-BNA would be good additions for both markets.


Would be nice. Any actual truth behind them?


They've both been speculated for a bit. Especially PDX-BNA. That flight is long overdue. The biggest holes for WN to fill in Nashville are MSP, PDX, and MKE. I honestly think we could see those soon enough.


I hope for it myself. MSP could use some fresh routes on WN. Recent was BWI. First month loads in the low 80s (April).
 
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yellowtail
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Jul 29, 2016 2:13 am

I see lots of chatter in the thread about CUN this and MEX that, but what about the other stations in Central America (SJO, LIR, BZE) all seem to be doing well. Perhaps they might add something there. Maybe even some adds in MBJ or AUA
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:41 pm

Three days to go. Any ACTUAL rumors out there? I know, it's fun to speculate too.
 
mnflyer11
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:41 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
I hope for it myself. MSP could use some fresh routes on WN. Recent was BWI. First month loads in the low 80s (April)



Definitely. Next question is where? LAS seems like a slam dunk as hypothesized, so the only major holes focus city wise are either dead south (Love, Nashville, or Hobby) and California (LAX, doubt Oakland would happen). I also wouldn't mind seeing Southwest take on BOS seeing how JetBlue doesn't seem interested in making an MSP presence.
 
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flymco753
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:00 pm

It would be interesting to see what WN could add out of MCO, maybe they'll make CLE and DTW full time again. Maybe they can add HOU-DTW or TPA-DTW but anything other than that would be interesting.
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enilria
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:08 pm

klm617 wrote:
Hoping for some more FNT additions so that they can bring the Flint flying back up to par with the service AirTran offered there. Any word on how the FNT-MDW flights are doing.

April load factor on MDW-FNT from T100 59%.

Using FNT's "by airline enplanements" and OAG seats, I can tell you that WN station load factor for May was 55% and WN traffic was down 51.7% from a year earlier.
jbmitt wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
jbmitt wrote:
No. I'm suggesting there are 3 RTs per station if DAY and CAK would be closed in favor of CVG. CVG - ATL would be DL hub to hub (being generous) but should be sufficient demand.


CAK and CLE are in the same market. Odds are any CAK closures would probably be spread out to CLE (or even a closer market like PIT) before CVG. Those pax aren't going to travel to CVG. WN could probably offer ATL service to both (CLE/CVG) markets, it's not an either/or situation.


I never suggested anyone from CAK would travel to CVG, that is foolish. Yes, DAY and CVG have some overlap. CAK passengers will be lost as a result of NK setting up shop at CAK. WN already serves ATL from PIT and I doubt they would add 3 more flights to ATL in lieu of CAK. There must be a reason WN has not offered CLE - ATL. The point I was getting at is that both DAY and CAK serve single markets with WN. Pull the resources from both and place them at CVG and add a few more pieces in order to compete with DL and some of the other LCCs that have set up shop there.
enilria wrote:
I'm just suggesting they could move the plane. DAY and CVG are cross-substitutes, though.


yes. That is what I was getting at as well.

If/when WN sets up at CVG, it makes sense to close DAY, and allocate enough resources for multiple flights a day to key destinations. WN already has a lot of resources tied up with 733 retirements and international growth and this is a way to offer a market with more business travel than DAY or CAK have combined.

On all these major network changes, whenever they load September 2017, that will be when the rubber meets the road. The fleet takes a big dive in airplane count. If they close no stations at that point then they won't be closing any for a while as that is the logical point to do it. Conversely, there's really no reason to close stations until then. The schedules they are now loading are coming into peak 2017. It doesn't make a lot of sense to close a station before peak season. So, I don't expect any closed stations until they load the SEP 2017 schedule and then there is a significant chance. Maybe 30-40%, but they wouldn't close one. It would probably be a house cleaning with several closed.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:30 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
Three days to go. Any ACTUAL rumors out there? I know, it's fun to speculate too.


MEXICO!
More Mexico!
Red eyes are coming!

No new cities but More of the connecting of the DOTS!
Like STL-CUN/PVR/SJD for international flying.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
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enilria
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:39 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:
Three days to go. Any ACTUAL rumors out there? I know, it's fun to speculate too.


MEXICO!
More Mexico!
Red eyes are coming!

No new cities but More of the connecting of the DOTS!
Like STL-CUN/PVR/SJD for international flying.

Flyguy

I just saw a speech by a WN exec where they said redeyes are years away.
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:47 pm

Flyguy[/quote]
I just saw a speech by a WN exec where they said redeyes are years away.[/quote]

I wouldn't be surprised if that's true.
I'm just simply posting what I've heard!

With B6 current News release about LGB service I can see
WN pushing their LAS service out until JAN 3 2016 to capture the New Year's Eve LAS business.
Then moving that idol A/C to add 3 LAS-ONT, 3 ONT-SJC and 1 new daily SLC-ONT.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:56 pm

jbmitt wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
jbmitt wrote:
No. I'm suggesting there are 3 RTs per station if DAY and CAK would be closed in favor of CVG. CVG - ATL would be DL hub to hub (being generous) but should be sufficient demand.


CAK and CLE are in the same market. Odds are any CAK closures would probably be spread out to CLE (or even a closer market like PIT) before CVG. Those pax aren't going to travel to CVG. WN could probably offer ATL service to both (CLE/CVG) markets, it's not an either/or situation.


I never suggested anyone from CAK would travel to CVG, that is foolish. Yes, DAY and CVG have some overlap. CAK passengers will be lost as a result of NK setting up shop at CAK. WN already serves ATL from PIT and I doubt they would add 3 more flights to ATL in lieu of CAK. There must be a reason WN has not offered CLE - ATL. The point I was getting at is that both DAY and CAK serve single markets with WN. Pull the resources from both and place them at CVG and add a few more pieces in order to compete with DL and some of the other LCCs that have set up shop there.
enilria wrote:
I'm just suggesting they could move the plane. DAY and CVG are cross-substitutes, though.


yes. That is what I was getting at as well.

If/when WN sets up at CVG, it makes sense to close DAY, and allocate enough resources for multiple flights a day to key destinations. WN already has a lot of resources tied up with 733 retirements and international growth and this is a way to offer a market with more business travel than DAY or CAK have combined.


Agree to disagree.

CAK and CLE aren't separate markets like you are trying to argue, there's very little overlap between each operations. If ATL is moving the most likely spot is CLE not CVG.

And if it's such a profitable idea to compete with DL at CVG why has it taken WN sooooooo long to enter the market after the downsizing to a DL hublet? Maybe it's not as easy or as profitable as you want to see it.
 
flydulles
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:05 pm

question why isn't southwest being more competitive and expanding there gates at Dulles? seems like united and frontier doing well there?
 
jbmitt
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:00 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
jbmitt wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:

CAK and CLE are in the same market. Odds are any CAK closures would probably be spread out to CLE (or even a closer market like PIT) before CVG. Those pax aren't going to travel to CVG. WN could probably offer ATL service to both (CLE/CVG) markets, it's not an either/or situation.


I never suggested anyone from CAK would travel to CVG, that is foolish. Yes, DAY and CVG have some overlap. CAK passengers will be lost as a result of NK setting up shop at CAK. WN already serves ATL from PIT and I doubt they would add 3 more flights to ATL in lieu of CAK. There must be a reason WN has not offered CLE - ATL. The point I was getting at is that both DAY and CAK serve single markets with WN. Pull the resources from both and place them at CVG and add a few more pieces in order to compete with DL and some of the other LCCs that have set up shop there.
enilria wrote:
I'm just suggesting they could move the plane. DAY and CVG are cross-substitutes, though.


yes. That is what I was getting at as well.

If/when WN sets up at CVG, it makes sense to close DAY, and allocate enough resources for multiple flights a day to key destinations. WN already has a lot of resources tied up with 733 retirements and international growth and this is a way to offer a market with more business travel than DAY or CAK have combined.


Agree to disagree.

CAK and CLE aren't separate markets like you are trying to argue, there's very little overlap between each operations. If ATL is moving the most likely spot is CLE not CVG.

And if it's such a profitable idea to compete with DL at CVG why has it taken WN sooooooo long to enter the market after the downsizing to a DL hublet? Maybe it's not as easy or as profitable as you want to see it.


All I said was that both CAK and DAY have WN service to a single destination. You're the one who has gone on and on about CAK/CLE and DAY/CVG each being a common market, which I agree with.

Since your unable to understand what I've posted, I'm simply suggesting WN redeploy their aircraft assets to other markets. Out of CAK and DAY and in to wherever. CVG happens to be a market that they don't serve, and has more business and leisure traffic than CAK. If CAK is closed, DAY makes sense to close as well, to instead focus on CLE and CVG.

Just because an existing flight is pulled from CAK, doesn't mean it has to go to CLE or PIT. The projected traffic and yields among other things are taken into account when redploying the resources.

If WN enters CVG against DL, they will need to offer 10+ flights a day in order to get the loyal DL travelers to switch. CVG still sees multiple daily frequencies to key markets and offers solid 1 stop options across all DL hubs. If WN cannot offer something similar, free bags and no change fees won't be enough to convince people to switch. I'd also expect DL to match fares, and schedule planes with IFE.

I say this having lived in Ohio, and having worked for multiple F500s and traveling for business out of CVG.

By all means, tell me how I'm wrong again.
 
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enilria
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:03 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
Agree to disagree.

CAK and CLE aren't separate markets like you are trying to argue, there's very little overlap between each operations. If ATL is moving the most likely spot is CLE not CVG.

And if it's such a profitable idea to compete with DL at CVG why has it taken WN sooooooo long to enter the market after the downsizing to a DL hublet? Maybe it's not as easy or as profitable as you want to see it.

I'm confused where you say "CAK and CLE aren't separate markets" and then you say " there's very little overlap". Those are opposite statements.

Have you seen the entire CAK marketing campaign of the last umpteen years? Punchy the punching bag tv ads?
http://www.akroncantonairport.com/newsr ... tervention

CAK's entire marketing program has been built around stealing passengers from CLE. That has gotten much harder since the ULCCs came into CLE and that's why CAK has seen a downdraft as many of us predicted. Their raison d'etre has diminished significantly.

Agreed that CVG and CAK have zero overlap. CVG and DAY certainly do. CMH overlaps with everything to an extent and there's also LEX/IND/SDF and others like PIT/DTW in the overall mix of Ohio leakage.

WN chose SDF and CMH on its own when CVG was a real hub and WN served alternates in that era in these siuations. They got dragged kicking and screaming into DAY by the FL merger because it clearly does not fit with their typical strategy and now they are down to 3 RTs to MDW which is pretty crummy. So, at this point, WN's decision not to serve CVG had much less to do with the anticipated profits of CVG and more to do with the accumulation of past decisions that have put them in airports surrounding CVG. I think if they could start from scratch (which WN almost never does as they are very afraid of closing stations) they would serve SDF, CVG, CMH, and CLE and that would fully cover the KY/OH area. I thought of throwing TOL in there just to see if anybody was awake, LOL! Anyway, no TOL, but DAY and CAK no longer make sense for WN and that is pretty evident from the extremely limited schedule that remains in both. Same story in FNT.
 
msycajun
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:17 pm

I think izbtmnhd is saying that in WN's eyes CAK and CLE are one market because they are not offering overlapping service from the two airports - i.e. only ATL from CAK and not ATL from CLE. I could see them consolidating the ATL flights to CLE, giving them a more rounded network out of CLE.

Regarding red-eyes, you'd think they would want to get that implemented as soon as possible in order to mitigate the fleet crunch as the classics are phased out and the maxes are added. What's the holdup with this? Technology? Pilot/crew contracts?
 
usflyguy
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:52 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
WN pushing their LAS service out until JAN 3 2016 to capture the New Year's Eve LAS business.
Then moving that idol A/C to add 3 LAS-ONT, 3 ONT-SJC and 1 new daily SLC-ONT.

Flyguy


This "prediction" makes no sense whatsoever. 7 additional flights at ONT? ONT is not growing, it'll be lucky if it doesn't shrink some more. Just in case you didn't realize, ONT is not close to LGB.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:54 pm

enilria wrote:
klm617 wrote:
If/when WN sets up at CVG, it makes sense to close DAY, and allocate enough resources for multiple flights a day to key destinations. WN already has a lot of resources tied up with 733 retirements and international growth and this is a way to offer a market with more business travel than DAY or CAK have combined.

On all these major network changes, whenever they load September 2017, that will be when the rubber meets the road. The fleet takes a big dive in airplane count. If they close no stations at that point then they won't be closing any for a while as that is the logical point to do it. Conversely, there's really no reason to close stations until then. The schedules they are now loading are coming into peak 2017. It doesn't make a lot of sense to close a station before peak season. So, I don't expect any closed stations until they load the SEP 2017 schedule and then there is a significant chance. Maybe 30-40%, but they wouldn't close one. It would probably be a house cleaning with several closed.


I would agree that if WN closes a station in fall of 2017, that there would be more than one closed. It's logical to do it after peak season and when the Classics are being pulled. I'm not sure which stations would be on my closure list, but I bet there will be at least one that survives that most would think should close and one will get closed that we didn't see coming. I certainly didn't expect Key West to go when it did. My short list for potential cuts might be FNT, CAK, DAY, GSP, DSM, saving ICT, GRR, ROC, PWM, and my not expected cut is ECP. I guess this list could be shuffled in many ways. There are also a bunch of duds competitively priced between large cities that could also be trimmed. I just hope small and medium sized markets don't take a disproportionately large hit as they often seem to do..

Regarding the 8/4 schedule, not sure how much new stuff will be announced if they are going to have to pull a bunch in the following schedle. I could see some extra peak seasonal flights. Not sure I see a lot of international routes launching for summer peak. WN taps a lot of vacationers, which I'm under the impression happens during our colder months.
 
Indy
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:16 pm

Given there is an announcement scheduled at IND the day before the schedule gets released I'd have to go with...

IND-SAN
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:24 pm

msycajun wrote:
I think izbtmnhd is saying that in WN's eyes CAK and CLE are one market because they are not offering overlapping service from the two airports - i.e. only ATL from CAK and not ATL from CLE. I could see them consolidating the ATL flights to CLE, giving them a more rounded network out of CLE.

Regarding red-eyes, you'd think they would want to get that implemented as soon as possible in order to mitigate the fleet crunch as the classics are phased out and the maxes are added. What's the holdup with this? Technology? Pilot/crew contracts?


Exactly. I mean that there is no real overlap of WN's CLE and CAK operation. The airline sees it mostly as one market. Which makes the recent NK "dual ops" move all the more interesting.

I'm done posting about WN's continued no-op at CVG. I don't think it's coming this schedule extension anyway. If WN was really coming we'd be hearing about an upcoming "major announcement" from the CVG airport folks already.
 
lakeeffect
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:50 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
msycajun wrote:
I think izbtmnhd is saying that in WN's eyes CAK and CLE are one market because they are not offering overlapping service from the two airports - i.e. only ATL from CAK and not ATL from CLE. I could see them consolidating the ATL flights to CLE, giving them a more rounded network out of CLE.

Regarding red-eyes, you'd think they would want to get that implemented as soon as possible in order to mitigate the fleet crunch as the classics are phased out and the maxes are added. What's the holdup with this? Technology? Pilot/crew contracts?


Exactly. I mean that there is no real overlap of WN's CLE and CAK operation. The airline sees it mostly as one market. Which makes the recent NK "dual ops" move all the more interesting.


I think that's what made it so difficult for WN to be at both CAK and CLE. The only daily overlapping service was CLE/CAK- MDW which flopped pretty quickly and CLE/CAK-LAS which was announced as being cut before the inaugural flight. If you were a loyal WN flyer in NE Ohio (or elsewhere) you had to choose CAK or CLE based on your destination if you wanted nonstop. It was pretty silly to have to fly out of CAK if you wanted DCA, but CLE if you wanted BWI. If you were traveling to PHX you needed to fly from CLE, but if you were headed to DEN you had to leave from CAK. Both CAK and CLE offered a completely unique set of destinations from each other. In the end, most everything WN cut from CAK stayed cut from NE Ohio with the exception of DEN. It would seem that WN is moving towards consolidation at CLE, but historically most of those CAK flights have been allocated elsewhere in WN's network instead of CLE.

I'm wondering if we might see WN offer HOU and TPA from CLE as they seem like natural connect the dot adds over the next year?
 
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enilria
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:04 pm

Indy wrote:
Given there is an announcement scheduled at IND the day before the schedule gets released I'd have to go with...

IND-SAN

I don't think WN often announces things the day before the schedule load. How would they sell tickets on the newly announced flight if the new schedule isn't loaded yet?

I would guess that announcement is for a sooner schedule period (which often is some sort of weekend international service) or is airport related in terms of facilities.
izbtmnhd wrote:
Exactly. I mean that there is no real overlap of WN's CLE and CAK operation. The airline sees it mostly as one market. Which makes the recent NK "dual ops" move all the more interesting.

I'm done posting about WN's continued no-op at CVG. I don't think it's coming this schedule extension anyway. If WN was really coming we'd be hearing about an upcoming "major announcement" from the CVG airport folks already.

So, *IF* WN closes DAY in the SEP 2017 schedule, I think you would see CVG added as soon as the airplane shortage abates. Maybe FEB 2018 or even DEC 2017?
msycajun wrote:
I think izbtmnhd is saying that in WN's eyes CAK and CLE are one market because they are not offering overlapping service from the two airports - i.e. only ATL from CAK and not ATL from CLE. I could see them consolidating the ATL flights to CLE, giving them a more rounded network out of CLE.

Regarding red-eyes, you'd think they would want to get that implemented as soon as possible in order to mitigate the fleet crunch as the classics are phased out and the maxes are added. What's the holdup with this? Technology? Pilot/crew contracts?

I've said since the beginning that ATL makes much more sense at CLE than CAK. It's all low yield dreck connecting to Florida at CAK. At CLE they might have a chance to get a nice yielding local market. Originally I thought CAK would get all the leisure markets and CLE would get the business markets, but the arrival of ULCCs at CLE changed that. Now CAK will be lucky to have anything.
 
joeljack
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:17 pm

Oklahoma City to Columbus is on the southwest.com interactive route map as nonstop. hmmm......
If this isn't a mistake and is in the works, very unusual route to say the least.
 
Indy
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:32 pm

enilria wrote:
I don't think WN often announces things the day before the schedule load. How would they sell tickets on the newly announced flight if the new schedule isn't loaded yet?

I would guess that announcement is for a sooner schedule period (which often is some sort of weekend international service) or is airport related in terms of facilities.


You release it the day before so your schedule release doesn't spill the beans before the announcement. It is entirely no big deal to state "tickets go on sale tomorrow." As for weekend international service I can just about guarantee you that is not going to be the case. The notice to the press stated it would expand business travel options. That pretty much rules out a tourist destination.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
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enilria
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:36 pm

Indy wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don't think WN often announces things the day before the schedule load. How would they sell tickets on the newly announced flight if the new schedule isn't loaded yet?

I would guess that announcement is for a sooner schedule period (which often is some sort of weekend international service) or is airport related in terms of facilities.


You release it the day before so your schedule release doesn't spill the beans before the announcement. It is entirely no big deal to state "tickets go on sale tomorrow." As for weekend international service I can just about guarantee you that is not going to be the case. The notice to the press stated it would expand business travel options. That pretty much rules out a tourist destination.

They could do that, but have they ever pre-announced a new market before? It's not like the old days where the newspapers would carry the news the next day when the flights are for sale. Now it is instantaneous and you want to be able to sell the product while the customer is thinking about it. Expecting customers to remember a day later is reducing the value of an announcement significantly. OTOH, if they are announcing something that starts in the current for sale window they could put it out for sale any time.
 
Indy
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:46 pm

enilria wrote:
They could do that, but have they ever pre-announced a new market before? It's not like the old days where the newspapers would carry the news the next day when the flights are for sale. Now it is instantaneous and you want to be able to sell the product while the customer is thinking about it. Expecting customers to remember a day later is reducing the value of an announcement significantly. OTOH, if they are announcing something that starts in the current for sale window they could put it out for sale any time.


The notice specifically mentions business travelers. IND has been working on (that I can recall) three business destinations -- SAN, SEA and LHR. It was stated back in February that a high-profile destination would be announced soon. A representative from the Mayor's office will be there as will the Indiana Economic Development Corporation and IAA leadership. I don't think you get all of these people involved for service to an already served destination. The parties involved tell me money would have been put up for this. Especially with the IEDC attending. The timing of this being within 24 hours of the WN schedule release leads me to think it will involve them. I suppose it could be AS coming to town. But WN has been the one airline seriously expanding here. I think they are #1 at IND now.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
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enilria
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:59 pm

Indy wrote:
enilria wrote:
They could do that, but have they ever pre-announced a new market before? It's not like the old days where the newspapers would carry the news the next day when the flights are for sale. Now it is instantaneous and you want to be able to sell the product while the customer is thinking about it. Expecting customers to remember a day later is reducing the value of an announcement significantly. OTOH, if they are announcing something that starts in the current for sale window they could put it out for sale any time.


The notice specifically mentions business travelers. IND has been working on (that I can recall) three business destinations -- SAN, SEA and LHR. It was stated back in February that a high-profile destination would be announced soon. A representative from the Mayor's office will be there as will the Indiana Economic Development Corporation and IAA leadership. I don't think you get all of these people involved for service to an already served destination. The parties involved tell me money would have been put up for this. Especially with the IEDC attending. The timing of this being within 24 hours of the WN schedule release leads me to think it will involve them. I suppose it could be AS coming to town. But WN has been the one airline seriously expanding here. I think they are #1 at IND now.

We'll see. I guess another possibility is that an exec had a schedule conflict the next day. We'll see...
 
crazytoaster
Posts: 301
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:03 pm

joeljack wrote:
Oklahoma City to Columbus is on the southwest.com interactive route map as nonstop. hmmm......
If this isn't a mistake and is in the works, very unusual route to say the least.


Very interesting find! It appears just two flights added for the Oklahoma vs Ohio state game on Sept 17. First time I have seen a one off flight on WNs routemap. Fri depart and return sun.

As for Indy. I really hope you are right with IND-SAN being added. I have taken that flight a couple times
In the past year. Friends in SAN and one of my favorite places. I'm afraid I'll be disappointed with a G4 announcement to AZA or something. They are rumoured to have announcement in RDU that day, Aug 3.
DEN homebase. Frequent traveler to IND and RNO.
 
ROCDLFAN
Posts: 256
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:45 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
enilria wrote:
klm617 wrote:
If/when WN sets up at CVG, it makes sense to close DAY, and allocate enough resources for multiple flights a day to key destinations. WN already has a lot of resources tied up with 733 retirements and international growth and this is a way to offer a market with more business travel than DAY or CAK have combined.

On all these major network changes, whenever they load September 2017, that will be when the rubber meets the road. The fleet takes a big dive in airplane count. If they close no stations at that point then they won't be closing any for a while as that is the logical point to do it. Conversely, there's really no reason to close stations until then. The schedules they are now loading are coming into peak 2017. It doesn't make a lot of sense to close a station before peak season. So, I don't expect any closed stations until they load the SEP 2017 schedule and then there is a significant chance. Maybe 30-40%, but they wouldn't close one. It would probably be a house cleaning with several closed.


I would agree that if WN closes a station in fall of 2017, that there would be more than one closed. It's logical to do it after peak season and when the Classics are being pulled. I'm not sure which stations would be on my closure list, but I bet there will be at least one that survives that most would think should close and one will get closed that we didn't see coming. I certainly didn't expect Key West to go when it did. My short list for potential cuts might be FNT, CAK, DAY, GSP, DSM, saving ICT, GRR, ROC, PWM, and my not expected cut is ECP. I guess this list could be shuffled in many ways. There are also a bunch of duds competitively priced between large cities that could also be trimmed. I just hope small and medium sized markets don't take a disproportionately large hit as they often seem to do..

Regarding the 8/4 schedule, not sure how much new stuff will be announced if they are going to have to pull a bunch in the following schedle. I could see some extra peak seasonal flights. Not sure I see a lot of international routes launching for summer peak. WN taps a lot of vacationers, which I'm under the impression happens during our colder months.



ROC definitely won't be going anywhere for a while (for a few reasons, but they main one being they signed a 3 year service commitment in return for lower operating fees last December.) I don't know if anyone of able to find the average load factor for WN here, but word on the street is ever since MDW ended load factors have been incredibly high. I'd really like to see if nothing else either RSW or FLL come seasonal from here. ROC-Florida isn't nearly as risky of a market as it used to be.
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee."
 
flydulles
Posts: 122
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:12 am

i think it time to get more gates at dulles would like them to compete united better and bring back iad mdw
 
dbo861
Posts: 1056
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:31 am

enilria wrote:
On all these major network changes, whenever they load September 2017, that will be when the rubber meets the road. The fleet takes a big dive in airplane count. If they close no stations at that point then they won't be closing any for a while as that is the logical point to do it. Conversely, there's really no reason to close stations until then. The schedules they are now loading are coming into peak 2017. It doesn't make a lot of sense to close a station before peak season. So, I don't expect any closed stations until they load the SEP 2017 schedule and then there is a significant chance. Maybe 30-40%, but they wouldn't close one. It would probably be a house cleaning with several closed.


I've been curious about Southwest's fleet utilization. I recently had a 3.5 hour layover on a Friday morning at STL. When we landed I noticed about 5-6 aircraft sitting on the ramp away from the gates. By the time we took off around 11:00am, a few of those had been towed to gates, but at least 3 of them were still sitting on the ramp. I bring this up because, although it's an anecdotal observation, it seems like there's some slack in the fleet. If there is some slack in the fleet, along with 738 deliveries and second hand 73Gs coming online, I wonder how much the retirement of the 733/735s will impact current routes.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:31 am

joeljack wrote:
Oklahoma City to Columbus is on the southwest.com interactive route map as nonstop. hmmm......
If this isn't a mistake and is in the works, very unusual route to say the least.


This makes me wonder if CMH-MCI might be an option for WN in the future. DL and YX/F9 have both operated it (DL on CRJs and YX/F9 on E190s as through flights to SEA or SFO), but WN might have some connections on the MCI (and, theoretically, CMH) end they could tap into.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 534
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:49 am

No offense to the WN fans in MKE, STL, DTW, etc., but if the route you seek from your home airport is not served via MDW, or even DAL, slim chance it will come to fruition. Those are priority airports, and STL/MCI/DTW/etc. to BUR, BZE, BOG / etc. are not in the cards.
 
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enilria
Posts: 10300
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:07 am

dbo861 wrote:
enilria wrote:
On all these major network changes, whenever they load September 2017, that will be when the rubber meets the road. The fleet takes a big dive in airplane count. If they close no stations at that point then they won't be closing any for a while as that is the logical point to do it. Conversely, there's really no reason to close stations until then. The schedules they are now loading are coming into peak 2017. It doesn't make a lot of sense to close a station before peak season. So, I don't expect any closed stations until they load the SEP 2017 schedule and then there is a significant chance. Maybe 30-40%, but they wouldn't close one. It would probably be a house cleaning with several closed.


I've been curious about Southwest's fleet utilization. I recently had a 3.5 hour layover on a Friday morning at STL. When we landed I noticed about 5-6 aircraft sitting on the ramp away from the gates. By the time we took off around 11:00am, a few of those had been towed to gates, but at least 3 of them were still sitting on the ramp. I bring this up because, although it's an anecdotal observation, it seems like there's some slack in the fleet. If there is some slack in the fleet, along with 738 deliveries and second hand 73Gs coming online, I wonder how much the retirement of the 733/735s will impact current routes.

Utilization in 2Q was 11.0 hours based upon reported fleet count and scheduled block hours. That is not operational aircraft as it was not available. I would say 11 with all spares and maintenance aircraft included on an airline with no red-eyes, that is really high.

As for your STL experience, hard to say. They may keep hot spares there. They may do maintenance there. Those may have been airplanes ready to go to the graveyard. Could be any number of answers, but this has come up before and I did the math at the time. They cannot cover the fleet cut in September 2017 by increasing utilization unless they do really crazy stuff like flying flights that arrive at 230am and depart at 450am. To do that in a crap month like September would be suicide. I think they will need to cut 15-20 planes of "meat" off the bone (things previously non-seasonal) to get through that period based upon their fleet statements. That's not a ton of planes at a 700 airplane airline, but it comes down to whether you give up share in LAX-OAK with fewer flights and have to fight it back from DL later or just drop crap that is losing money. I vote for the latter.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:03 am

globalcabotage wrote:
No offense to the WN fans in MKE, STL, DTW, etc., but if the route you seek from your home airport is not served via MDW, or even DAL, slim chance it will come to fruition. Those are priority airports, and STL/MCI/DTW/etc. to BUR, BZE, BOG / etc. are not in the cards.


At the same time, however, I don't see why we would not eventually see things like MSP-LAS/BNA/DAL/LAX, etc. connecting more dots is always happening.
 
usflyguy
Posts: 1757
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:08 am

dbo861 wrote:
I've been curious about Southwest's fleet utilization. I recently had a 3.5 hour layover on a Friday morning at STL. When we landed I noticed about 5-6 aircraft sitting on the ramp away from the gates. By the time we took off around 11:00am, a few of those had been towed to gates, but at least 3 of them were still sitting on the ramp. I bring this up because, although it's an anecdotal observation, it seems like there's some slack in the fleet. If there is some slack in the fleet, along with 738 deliveries and second hand 73Gs coming online, I wonder how much the retirement of the 733/735s will impact current routes.


Were you traveling around a holiday or on a Saturday? A couple of the 700+ 737's usually are sitting around on those days.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
flyCMH
Posts: 2324
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 1999 12:15 pm

Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:28 am

wnflyguy wrote:
WN next schedule release is coming soon.
LAX rumors

LAX-CMH


Seriously? As mentioned, that would pit WN against DL and AA on the same route. There is definitely not enough demand for all 3, so the only way I could see WN jumping on the route would be to force the weaker of the two, or both, out of the market. Considering WN's market strength in CMH, they could probably pull it off, which would be a disaster for the local market, in my opinion.

crazytoaster wrote:
joeljack wrote:
Oklahoma City to Columbus is on the southwest.com interactive route map as nonstop. hmmm......
If this isn't a mistake and is in the works, very unusual route to say the least.


Very interesting find! It appears just two flights added for the Oklahoma vs Ohio state game on Sept 17. First time I have seen a one off flight on WNs routemap. Fri depart and return sun.


It came as a surprise to me as well to see it on the route map. Delta's interactive route map has populated one-off extra sections before (in fact, it shows them running an extra section to OKC as well for the game), but this is the first time I've seen it on WN's.

CMH-MCI and CMH-HOU remain tops on my personal wish list for WN from Columbus, followed closely by CMH-MKE and CMH-MSY.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5207
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:41 pm

flyCMH wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
WN next schedule release is coming soon.
LAX rumors

LAX-CMH


Seriously? As mentioned, that would pit WN against DL and AA on the same route. There is definitely not enough demand for all 3, so the only way I could see WN jumping on the route would be to force the weaker of the two, or both, out of the market. Considering WN's market strength in CMH, they could probably pull it off, which would be a disaster for the local market, in my opinion.


It wouldn't be the first time WN has come into Ohio and laid waste to a market. CAK, DAY...
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
flydulles
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:59 pm

Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:22 pm

anyone know if will this schedule will cover Memorial Day weekend 2017? really hope they bring back iad mdw so i can connect to Nashville next may. really hope we the grow dulles more and compete with united and frontier
 
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SteveXC500
Posts: 600
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:38 pm

Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:15 pm

flydulles wrote:
anyone know if will this schedule will cover Memorial Day weekend 2017? really hope they bring back iad mdw so i can connect to Nashville next may. really hope we the grow dulles more and compete with united and frontier


Only through April 24th this time.

https://www.southwest.com/air/flight-sc ... -SCHEDULES
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
Posts: 2038
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:49 pm

So hearing from a reliable source this schedule will not have anything other than normal seasonal changes and new flight allocations for SNA airport.

Rumors at SNA is that WN losing 6 slots that the county is giving out to possible 2 new airlines.
Another Rumor is AS and DL have both requested more seats to grow SNA.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
tomaheath
Posts: 631
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:58 pm

Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Tue Aug 02, 2016 6:12 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
So hearing from a reliable source this schedule will not have anything other than normal seasonal changes and new flight allocations for SNA airport.

Rumors at SNA is that WN losing 6 slots that the county is giving out to possible 2 new airlines.
Another Rumor is AS and DL have both requested more seats to grow SNA.

Flyguy

6 slots sounds like a rather big hit. How many do they have now?

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