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QANTAS747-438
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:43 am

I see OAK-PVR and OAK-SJD is available for sale in Spring 2017. When did it get approved? Why hasn't LAX-SJD/CUN/PVR been approved yet?
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
jco613
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:44 am

INFINITI329 wrote:
I like the EWR-FLL add, but I would really want to see LGA-FLL added. Especially with FLL more than likely turning into an international station

Correct me if I'm wrong but they do have 2 slots to play with in LGA. Perhaps they wanted to announce it with international and wanted to start with EWR to test NYC-FLL in a non slot controlled environment? And no, ISP-FLL is not NYC-FLL
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:28 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Finally MSP-LAS! Hopefully it will be made year-round and grow. Also, I don't remember MSP-PHX being 4 daily. I remember 3, but not 4.

Now if MSP could get DAL or HOU. Texas/southern connections are limited as it stands.


Best I could tell, however, is the MSP-LAS route is seasonal, according to the Southwest blog release. Seems strange. MSP-PHX has not been 4x to my knowledge either, but has extremely high loads any time of year.
 
thedetroitpole
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:43 pm

The higher loads contributed to Southwest decision to extend Detroit-Orlando service another month over the previous year. If this service remains once weekly, it would be good business for Detroit and Orlando travelers alike.
 
dbo861
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:18 pm

It seems like they've added a fair amount this schedule but didn't drop anything that I've seen. Could this be from fleet growth? Maybe they're building up in anticipation for the retirement of the 737 classics next fall.

SurfandSnow wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don't think anybody was expecting station closures. September 2017 schedule is when that is most likely to happen.


The 2014 station closures happened in early June - right at the beginning of the busy summer travel season. These days I'm not so sure WN will close any more stations, perhaps because the likes of DAY and ICT are just too important to business travelers and other important FFers throughout the entire country (i.e. loyal millennial AUS/SAN/SJC transplants from Ohio that frequently go home to visit friends and family). I have a feeling very few high value WN customers had any desire or need to visit BKG, EYW and JAN - while quite a few probably do value access to places like CAK and DSM for business and/or personal reasons...


I agree with you. DSM's flights, for example, don't even represent one full aircraft's utilization. So keeping DSM around uses requires than 0.14% of the fleet but still keeps a dot on their route map that's easily connected by most cities in the network through either LAS or STL.
 
usairways85
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:24 pm

phluser wrote:
It's interesting that WN is trimming the seasonal PHL-FLL to only 1x daily, while being at 4x on PHL-MCO. With only 1x daily on PHL-FLL and seasonal only, I don't know how WN works on the route, while B6 and AA have better frequency for business travelers and higher yielding passengers, and NK and F9 skim the lower yielding passengers. If demand is strong, WN should be at better frequency and/or serving it year round. It'd be interesting if NK increases PHL-FLL to 2x daily, or if F9 adds service. F9 is on PHL-MIA and it has Cuba connections and Miami point of sale, but F9 seems to like the lower cost airport aspect of FLL and keeps TTN and CVG still linked, so certainly can add a FLL-PHL flight in the mix, if it senses WN decrease of service warrants opportunity to step in.

WN left PHL on the backburner and the likes of NK, F9, B6 entered sort of under the radar. I am surprised WN still flies PHL-FLL and would expect B6 to try to push them out.

PHL-MCO in the winter will be:
8x AA
4x WN
3x F9
1x NK

I think between WN/FL PHL-MCO was at something like 6-7 a day so this type of frequency is probably similar to what it was 5 years ago. Has WN in recent winters flown PHL-TPA with 3x daily? I thought it was generally 2?
 
phluser
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:43 pm

usairways85 wrote:
Has WN in recent winters flown PHL-TPA with 3x daily? I thought it was generally 2?


I don't remember WN flying PHL-TPA at 3x daily. Atleast with 2x daily, it also provides some connections to FLL.

If one can't use the nonstop flight, the FLL-TPA-PHL is likely the best WN connection itinery between FLL and PHL.

It's also a little weird that FLL-PHL cuts down from 2x to 1x daily about a week before Spring Break. One would think it should be 2x atleast through and right after Spring Break.
Last edited by phluser on Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jco613
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:46 pm

usairways85 wrote:
phluser wrote:
It's interesting that WN is trimming the seasonal PHL-FLL to only 1x daily, while being at 4x on PHL-MCO. With only 1x daily on PHL-FLL and seasonal only, I don't know how WN works on the route, while B6 and AA have better frequency for business travelers and higher yielding passengers, and NK and F9 skim the lower yielding passengers. If demand is strong, WN should be at better frequency and/or serving it year round. It'd be interesting if NK increases PHL-FLL to 2x daily, or if F9 adds service. F9 is on PHL-MIA and it has Cuba connections and Miami point of sale, but F9 seems to like the lower cost airport aspect of FLL and keeps TTN and CVG still linked, so certainly can add a FLL-PHL flight in the mix, if it senses WN decrease of service warrants opportunity to step in.

WN left PHL on the backburner and the likes of NK, F9, B6 entered sort of under the radar. I am surprised WN still flies PHL-FLL and would expect B6 to try to push them out.

PHL-MCO in the winter will be:
8x AA
4x WN
3x F9
1x NK

I think between WN/FL PHL-MCO was at something like 6-7 a day so this type of frequency is probably similar to what it was 5 years ago. Has WN in recent winters flown PHL-TPA with 3x daily? I thought it was generally 2?


I think it's been stagnant at 2 lately, on par with many other NE routes from TPA.

I think the difference between MCO/TPA and FLL is that MCO/TPA have at least had year-round service on WN. When you leave an important route like FLL as a seasonal route (and sometimes they don't even tell you the season...they had it loaded as a Saturday-only this summer but pulled it at the last minute, and the season sometimes is OCT-APR, sometimes shorter and sometimes longer), you alienate your Customers. I think if they had never made PHL-FLL seasonal in the first place, they'd be in fine shape on the route, but now they don't have the brand recognition (or year round service) that B6 has, and they stand no chance minus getting a few people to their cruises in the winter.
 
jco613
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:49 pm

phluser wrote:
usairways85 wrote:
Has WN in recent winters flown PHL-TPA with 3x daily? I thought it was generally 2?


I don't remember WN flying PHL-TPA at 3x daily. Atleast with 2x daily, it also provides some connections to FLL.

If one can't use the nonstop flight, the FLL-TPA-PHL is likely the best WN connection itinery between FLL and PHL.

It's also a little weird that FLL-PHL cuts down from 2x to 1x daily about a week before Spring Break. One would think it should be 2x atleast through and right after Spring Break.


Looks like we posted at the same time, I noted that they are pretty much just getting a bit of the cruise traffic is their only hope...

Personally, WN is still my choice to PHL...I look at FLL-TPA-PHL, FLL-ATL-PHL, and FLL-BNA-PHL. So there are a few options.
 
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chrisnh
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 2:02 pm

MHT, supposedly 'too close to Boston' to warrant more than it has, grabbed two additional circuits to Florida cities but nothing westbound. In the past, MHT had non-stop daily flights to LAS, PHX, and DEN. And Boston was no further away from MHT than it is now. I travel on business a few times over the winter to California. Since I live very close to MHT, that would be my preference. But UA Express dumped me at the Doubletree Rosemont one too many times when their flight from MHT-ORD missed the onward connection to SFO. From that point on, I've used Logan to get on the UA non-stop flights that hop right over any bad winter weather I might encounter.

If Southwest kept those non-stop flights from MHT to PHX and LAS, I'd be inclined to use them on my west coast business trips. I'd be connecting at a 'weather-safe' city, my dollars would be with Southwest rather than United, and my concession dollars would be spent at MHT rather than BOS.

Really making out on this is Boston Express, the terrific bus line that zips me to Logan from my home in southern NH. The stress of driving isn't mine to bear, and the free wi-fi is wonderful.

The 12 non-stop flights WN will field in April 2017 are the same number they had when they started there in 1998.
 
airliner371
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:06 pm

Southwest lost 2 LGA slot pairs and 3 DCA slot pairs because they were leased from United for 10 slots at EWR. When the slots at EWR went away I guess United decided to end the agreement with Southwest (originally an AirTran deal).
Last edited by airliner371 on Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jco613
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:25 pm

airliner371 wrote:
Southwest lost 2 LGA slot pairs and 3 DCA slot pairs because they were leased from United for 10 slot pairs at EWR. When the slots at EWR went away I guess United decided to end the agreement with Southwest (originally an AirTran deal).


That's the first time I've seen an actual answer to this...makes total sense. Wonder what UA has in store
 
phluser
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:00 pm

jco613 wrote:
I think if they had never made PHL-FLL seasonal in the first place, they'd be in fine shape on the route, but now they don't have the brand recognition (or year round service) that B6 has, and they stand no chance minus getting a few people to their cruises in the winter.


Using the year prior to it being seasonal, WN's LFs on PHL-FLL did decline past March. Summer demand is weaker, atleast from WN's customer base and from what I hear the flight is used more by PHL based customers. I haven't checked out B6's LFs, but I suspect B6 is able to make it work year-round with international connections, and maybe like the ULCCs (F9 and NK) better exposure on the OTAs. I also think WN's no change fee might hurt itself on competitive leisure routes like this where pax purchasing a WN ticket might forego a So. Florida escape if the weather is mild back home in PHL. I've been on lightly filled WN planes on mild weekends.

On a less competitive route like CLE-FLL, B6 is able to get away just running 1x daily in the mid afternoon with limited connections, but from PHL, B6 would have it harder doing that and has to provide a reasonable schedule with 2x daily and international connections. From DTW, B6 just operates 1x daily of DTW-FLL, but it's timed for international connections (as DTW is a more competitive market than CLE, with DL being a major competitor there).
Last edited by phluser on Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:01 pm

chrisnh wrote:
MHT, supposedly 'too close to Boston' to warrant more than it has, grabbed two additional circuits to Florida cities but nothing westbound. In the past, MHT had non-stop daily flights to LAS, PHX, and DEN. And Boston was no further away from MHT than it is now. I travel on business a few times over the winter to California. Since I live very close to MHT, that would be my preference. But UA Express dumped me at the Doubletree Rosemont one too many times when their flight from MHT-ORD missed the onward connection to SFO. From that point on, I've used Logan to get on the UA non-stop flights that hop right over any bad winter weather I might encounter.

If Southwest kept those non-stop flights from MHT to PHX and LAS, I'd be inclined to use them on my west coast business trips. I'd be connecting at a 'weather-safe' city, my dollars would be with Southwest rather than United, and my concession dollars would be spent at MHT rather than BOS.

Really making out on this is Boston Express, the terrific bus line that zips me to Logan from my home in southern NH. The stress of driving isn't mine to bear, and the free wi-fi is wonderful.

The 12 non-stop flights WN will field in April 2017 are the same number they had when they started there in 1998.


The route I'm surprised they do not serve is MHT-FLL.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
INFINITI329
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:01 pm

jco613 wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong but they do have 2 slots to play with in LGA. Perhaps they wanted to announce it with international and wanted to start with EWR to test NYC-FLL in a non slot controlled environment? And no, ISP-FLL is not NYC-FLL


I am pretty confident WN would have no problem making LGA-FLL work. I would really like to see LGA-FLL-SJU. If WN wants to tap into the intl Caribbean traffic from NYC they need to start LGA-FLL. I am a native New Yorker so I know is ISP is not NYC.
 
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TWA302
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:19 pm

Is STL-ECP a new route? I never recall WN having this.
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:54 pm

TWA302 wrote:
Is STL-ECP a new route? I never recall WN having this.


No. It's been flown seasonally for the past few years. In fact, it's being flown right now. WN1085 did ECP-STL today. The route ends soon as ECP goes into its low season.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:30 pm

I know I'm dreaming out of my own selfishness, but I need SNA-OGG. Someday...
 
jco613
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:27 pm

phluser wrote:
jco613 wrote:
I think if they had never made PHL-FLL seasonal in the first place, they'd be in fine shape on the route, but now they don't have the brand recognition (or year round service) that B6 has, and they stand no chance minus getting a few people to their cruises in the winter.


Using the year prior to it being seasonal, WN's LFs on PHL-FLL did decline past March. Summer demand is weaker, atleast from WN's customer base and from what I hear the flight is used more by PHL based customers. I haven't checked out B6's LFs, but I suspect B6 is able to make it work year-round with international connections, and maybe like the ULCCs (F9 and NK) better exposure on the OTAs. I also think WN's no change fee might hurt itself on competitive leisure routes like this where pax purchasing a WN ticket might forego a So. Florida escape if the weather is mild back home in PHL. I've been on lightly filled WN planes on mild weekends.

On a less competitive route like CLE-FLL, B6 is able to get away just running 1x daily in the mid afternoon with limited connections, but from PHL, B6 would have it harder doing that and has to provide a reasonable schedule with 2x daily and international connections. From DTW, B6 just operates 1x daily of DTW-FLL, but it's timed for international connections (as DTW is a more competitive market than CLE, with DL being a major competitor there).


I think I posted this in another thread, but I'm always curious how WN does with local FLL PAX. I know they have had a big time advertising blitz the past few weeks in preparation for NAS Sunday.

That being said, if you look at their non-seasonal routes:
TPA, BWI, MDW, DAL, HOU, LAS, ATL - large connecting cities (TPA competes with NK and 3M, BWI with NK and B6, MDW with NK, AA, UA at ORD, DAL with AA and NK at DFW, HOU with NK and UA at IAH, LAS with B6 and NK, ATL competes with NK and DL)
BDL - compete with B6 (staying at 1X this year, B6 goes up to 2 and sometimes 3 in the high season)
PVD - compete with B6 (1X Summer 2X in season, B6 is 1X year round)
AUS - compete with B6 (2X year round, B6 is 1X year round)
SJU- compete with B6 (2X year round, B6 averages 5+)
MSY- will compete with B6 (stagnant at 2X year round, sometimes 3 and sometimes 1)
DCA- competes with B6 and AA, will compete with UA at IAD (2X daily - 1 is an Air21 slot, B6 at 4X)
DEN - competes with UA and NK (Southwest goes up to 3 in high season, UA and NK vary with NK being seasonal)
BUF - competes with B6 (B6 is seasonal 1X, WN year round 1X and up to 2 in season. Last year, they hit a Saturday peak of SIX flights!)
BNA - competes with B6 (B6 is 1X but just started the the route, WN goes up to 4 in season)
PIT - competes with B6 (B6 is 1X, WN averages 2X)
RDU - competes with B6 (B6 is 1X, WN claims this is seasonal, but only stops for about a month if that and is 1X)
ALB - competes with B6 (both 1X)
Interesting to note: Southwest was first in the DAL, HOU, MSY, BUF, ALB, and BNA routes. They took over for the incumbent on BWI, MDW, BDL, and PVD.

Now lets look at the WN only routes:
IND- 2X (on par with previous years)
MCI- 2X (on par - note that this is seasonal service)
STL- 3X (1X in the summer, occasionally 2X and usually 3X in high season)
PHX- 1X (this is listed as seasonal, but I'm still trying to figure out the season)
CMH- 1X this high season (they have done 2X in the past)
ISP- 2X (this has been up to 3X in high season in the past, and used to be 2X year round, now just 1X in summer. Why and how? I don't know)
MKE- 2X (I don't know if this route has ever been 2X in the past.)

My guess is the cities with additions do well from the XXX-FLL PAX and the cities that stay stagnant are good FLL based cities. As any FLL based traveler will tell you, try to avoid flying north in the winter. Not because of the cold, or the traffic, but the PRICE! I would say that aside from the major WN cities (I have met a lot of FLL-TPA regulars), RDU, STL, CMH and ISP have the most FLL based passengers, but I do not have the data to back that up.
 
jco613
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:28 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
chrisnh wrote:
MHT, supposedly 'too close to Boston' to warrant more than it has, grabbed two additional circuits to Florida cities but nothing westbound. In the past, MHT had non-stop daily flights to LAS, PHX, and DEN. And Boston was no further away from MHT than it is now. I travel on business a few times over the winter to California. Since I live very close to MHT, that would be my preference. But UA Express dumped me at the Doubletree Rosemont one too many times when their flight from MHT-ORD missed the onward connection to SFO. From that point on, I've used Logan to get on the UA non-stop flights that hop right over any bad winter weather I might encounter.

If Southwest kept those non-stop flights from MHT to PHX and LAS, I'd be inclined to use them on my west coast business trips. I'd be connecting at a 'weather-safe' city, my dollars would be with Southwest rather than United, and my concession dollars would be spent at MHT rather than BOS.

Really making out on this is Boston Express, the terrific bus line that zips me to Logan from my home in southern NH. The stress of driving isn't mine to bear, and the free wi-fi is wonderful.

The 12 non-stop flights WN will field in April 2017 are the same number they had when they started there in 1998.


The route I'm surprised they do not serve is MHT-FLL.


They tried it every year minus a few, even when MHT was booming. Failed every time. Usually doesn't last more than 2 months Sat only
 
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enilria
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:19 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don't think anybody was expecting station closures. September 2017 schedule is when that is most likely to happen.


The 2014 station closures happened in early June - right at the beginning of the busy summer travel season. These days I'm not so sure WN will close any more stations, perhaps because the likes of DAY and ICT are just too important to business travelers and other important FFers throughout the entire country (i.e. loyal millennial AUS/SAN/SJC transplants from Ohio that frequently go home to visit friends and family). I have a feeling very few high value WN customers had any desire or need to visit BKG, EYW and JAN - while quite a few probably do value access to places like CAK and DSM for business and/or personal reasons...

While it makes more sense to close stations after peak season, I acknowledge WN has not followed this rule in the past, however, seasonal timing is not the main issue here. Due to the pilot issues associated with trying to operate 3 generations of 737s, WN is going to park a large number of planes in September 2017 and then build the fleet back up again from deliveries. It will probably take them most of Winter to get back to even. That's why it's the perfect time to make hard decisions, because they must be made regardless.
 
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FLIHGH
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Sat Aug 06, 2016 1:56 am

jco613 wrote:
phluser wrote:
jco613 wrote:
I think if they had never made PHL-FLL seasonal in the first place, they'd be in fine shape on the route, but now they don't have the brand recognition (or year round service) that B6 has, and they stand no chance minus getting a few people to their cruises in the winter.


Using the year prior to it being seasonal, WN's LFs on PHL-FLL did decline past March. Summer demand is weaker, atleast from WN's customer base and from what I hear the flight is used more by PHL based customers. I haven't checked out B6's LFs, but I suspect B6 is able to make it work year-round with international connections, and maybe like the ULCCs (F9 and NK) better exposure on the OTAs. I also think WN's no change fee might hurt itself on competitive leisure routes like this where pax purchasing a WN ticket might forego a So. Florida escape if the weather is mild back home in PHL. I've been on lightly filled WN planes on mild weekends.

On a less competitive route like CLE-FLL, B6 is able to get away just running 1x daily in the mid afternoon with limited connections, but from PHL, B6 would have it harder doing that and has to provide a reasonable schedule with 2x daily and international connections. From DTW, B6 just operates 1x daily of DTW-FLL, but it's timed for international connections (as DTW is a more competitive market than CLE, with DL being a major competitor there).


I think I posted this in another thread, but I'm always curious how WN does with local FLL PAX. I know they have had a big time advertising blitz the past few weeks in preparation for NAS Sunday.

That being said, if you look at their non-seasonal routes:
TPA, BWI, MDW, DAL, HOU, LAS, ATL - large connecting cities (TPA competes with NK and 3M, BWI with NK and B6, MDW with NK, AA, UA at ORD, DAL with AA and NK at DFW, HOU with NK and UA at IAH, LAS with B6 and NK, ATL competes with NK and DL)
BDL - compete with B6 (staying at 1X this year, B6 goes up to 2 and sometimes 3 in the high season)
PVD - compete with B6 (1X Summer 2X in season, B6 is 1X year round)
AUS - compete with B6 (2X year round, B6 is 1X year round)
SJU- compete with B6 (2X year round, B6 averages 5+)
MSY- will compete with B6 (stagnant at 2X year round, sometimes 3 and sometimes 1)
DCA- competes with B6 and AA, will compete with UA at IAD (2X daily - 1 is an Air21 slot, B6 at 4X)
DEN - competes with UA and NK (Southwest goes up to 3 in high season, UA and NK vary with NK being seasonal)
BUF - competes with B6 (B6 is seasonal 1X, WN year round 1X and up to 2 in season. Last year, they hit a Saturday peak of SIX flights!)
BNA - competes with B6 (B6 is 1X but just started the the route, WN goes up to 4 in season)
PIT - competes with B6 (B6 is 1X, WN averages 2X)
RDU - competes with B6 (B6 is 1X, WN claims this is seasonal, but only stops for about a month if that and is 1X)
ALB - competes with B6 (both 1X)
Interesting to note: Southwest was first in the DAL, HOU, MSY, BUF, ALB, and BNA routes. They took over for the incumbent on BWI, MDW, BDL, and PVD.

Now lets look at the WN only routes:
IND- 2X (on par with previous years)
MCI- 2X (on par - note that this is seasonal service)
STL- 3X (1X in the summer, occasionally 2X and usually 3X in high season)
PHX- 1X (this is listed as seasonal, but I'm still trying to figure out the season)
CMH- 1X this high season (they have done 2X in the past)
ISP- 2X (this has been up to 3X in high season in the past, and used to be 2X year round, now just 1X in summer. Why and how? I don't know)
MKE- 2X (I don't know if this route has ever been 2X in the past.)

My guess is the cities with additions do well from the XXX-FLL PAX and the cities that stay stagnant are good FLL based cities. As any FLL based traveler will tell you, try to avoid flying north in the winter. Not because of the cold, or the traffic, but the PRICE! I would say that aside from the major WN cities (I have met a lot of FLL-TPA regulars), RDU, STL, CMH and ISP have the most FLL based passengers, but I do not have the data to back that up.

Allegiant competes with Southwest to Indy and the Columbus area.
 
jco613
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Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Sat Aug 06, 2016 4:56 am

FLIHGH wrote:
jco613 wrote:
phluser wrote:

Using the year prior to it being seasonal, WN's LFs on PHL-FLL did decline past March. Summer demand is weaker, atleast from WN's customer base and from what I hear the flight is used more by PHL based customers. I haven't checked out B6's LFs, but I suspect B6 is able to make it work year-round with international connections, and maybe like the ULCCs (F9 and NK) better exposure on the OTAs. I also think WN's no change fee might hurt itself on competitive leisure routes like this where pax purchasing a WN ticket might forego a So. Florida escape if the weather is mild back home in PHL. I've been on lightly filled WN planes on mild weekends.

On a less competitive route like CLE-FLL, B6 is able to get away just running 1x daily in the mid afternoon with limited connections, but from PHL, B6 would have it harder doing that and has to provide a reasonable schedule with 2x daily and international connections. From DTW, B6 just operates 1x daily of DTW-FLL, but it's timed for international connections (as DTW is a more competitive market than CLE, with DL being a major competitor there).


I think I posted this in another thread, but I'm always curious how WN does with local FLL PAX. I know they have had a big time advertising blitz the past few weeks in preparation for NAS Sunday.

That being said, if you look at their non-seasonal routes:
TPA, BWI, MDW, DAL, HOU, LAS, ATL - large connecting cities (TPA competes with NK and 3M, BWI with NK and B6, MDW with NK, AA, UA at ORD, DAL with AA and NK at DFW, HOU with NK and UA at IAH, LAS with B6 and NK, ATL competes with NK and DL)
BDL - compete with B6 (staying at 1X this year, B6 goes up to 2 and sometimes 3 in the high season)
PVD - compete with B6 (1X Summer 2X in season, B6 is 1X year round)
AUS - compete with B6 (2X year round, B6 is 1X year round)
SJU- compete with B6 (2X year round, B6 averages 5+)
MSY- will compete with B6 (stagnant at 2X year round, sometimes 3 and sometimes 1)
DCA- competes with B6 and AA, will compete with UA at IAD (2X daily - 1 is an Air21 slot, B6 at 4X)
DEN - competes with UA and NK (Southwest goes up to 3 in high season, UA and NK vary with NK being seasonal)
BUF - competes with B6 (B6 is seasonal 1X, WN year round 1X and up to 2 in season. Last year, they hit a Saturday peak of SIX flights!)
BNA - competes with B6 (B6 is 1X but just started the the route, WN goes up to 4 in season)
PIT - competes with B6 (B6 is 1X, WN averages 2X)
RDU - competes with B6 (B6 is 1X, WN claims this is seasonal, but only stops for about a month if that and is 1X)
ALB - competes with B6 (both 1X)
Interesting to note: Southwest was first in the DAL, HOU, MSY, BUF, ALB, and BNA routes. They took over for the incumbent on BWI, MDW, BDL, and PVD.

Now lets look at the WN only routes:
IND- 2X (on par with previous years)
MCI- 2X (on par - note that this is seasonal service)
STL- 3X (1X in the summer, occasionally 2X and usually 3X in high season)
PHX- 1X (this is listed as seasonal, but I'm still trying to figure out the season)
CMH- 1X this high season (they have done 2X in the past)
ISP- 2X (this has been up to 3X in high season in the past, and used to be 2X year round, now just 1X in summer. Why and how? I don't know)
MKE- 2X (I don't know if this route has ever been 2X in the past.)

My guess is the cities with additions do well from the XXX-FLL PAX and the cities that stay stagnant are good FLL based cities. As any FLL based traveler will tell you, try to avoid flying north in the winter. Not because of the cold, or the traffic, but the PRICE! I would say that aside from the major WN cities (I have met a lot of FLL-TPA regulars), RDU, STL, CMH and ISP have the most FLL based passengers, but I do not have the data to back that up.

Allegiant competes with Southwest to Indy and the Columbus area.


Thank you. Thought something was missing.
Interestingly, the "seasonal" ALB RDU, PHX, IND, CMH all end after tomorrow
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5207
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Sat Aug 06, 2016 1:46 pm

I'm waiting on NK or maybe B6 to jump in on FLL-CMH. The PDEW (381 Q4 '15) seems to be able to handle more than 1x daily seasonal WN and couple-days-a-week G4 service.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
lakeeffect
Posts: 502
Joined: Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:41 pm

Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:19 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
I'm waiting on NK or maybe B6 to jump in on FLL-CMH. The PDEW (381 Q4 '15) seems to be able to handle more than 1x daily seasonal WN and couple-days-a-week G4 service.


That 381 figure is actually both ways combined, the PDEW would be half that at about 191. Still, I'm surprised there's not more than 1 daily on the route in winter, it's a pretty easy route to stimulate demand on.
 
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LotsaRunway
Posts: 385
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:23 pm

Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:44 am

adamh8297 wrote:
They tried it every year minus a few, even when MHT was booming. Failed every time. Usually doesn't last more than 2 months Sat only


Actually, WN ran MHT-FLL daily at first and had good loads, but it fell victim when fares went up. Seasonal loads since have been good when they run them, but MHT has become a very price sensitive airport. WN is not a low fare carrier when you book in advance. Almost every carrier matches or beats them, especially flights out of Logan.

chrisnh wrote:
MHT, supposedly 'too close to Boston' to warrant more than it has, grabbed two additional circuits to Florida cities but nothing westbound. In the past, MHT had non-stop daily flights to LAS, PHX, and DEN. And Boston was no further away from MHT than it is now. I travel on business a few times over the winter to California. Since I live very close to MHT, that would be my preference. But UA Express dumped me at the Doubletree Rosemont one too many times when their flight from MHT-ORD missed the onward connection to SFO. From that point on, I've used Logan to get on the UA non-stop flights that hop right over any bad winter weather I might encounter.

If Southwest kept those non-stop flights from MHT to PHX and LAS, I'd be inclined to use them on my west coast business trips. I'd be connecting at a 'weather-safe' city, my dollars would be with Southwest rather than United, and my concession dollars would be spent at MHT rather than BOS.

Really making out on this is Boston Express, the terrific bus line that zips me to Logan from my home in southern NH. The stress of driving isn't mine to bear, and the free wi-fi is wonderful.

The 12 non-stop flights WN will field in April 2017 are the same number they had when they started there in 1998.


Boston Logan has absolutely destroyed MHT since 2005. (PVD too, but they are rebounding now). Both MHT and PVD should be growing at the same general rates being seen at PWM and ALB, but BOS is absorbing almost all the growth in the region. I'm not saying that BOS shouldn't be growing or shouldn't be the regional go-to airport for international and other long-haul flights, but it really shouldn't be sucking-in flyers like you that are local to MHT, prefer MHT, but have to go somewhere else to get something reliable. But BOS can pull in flyers like you, and it will continue to as long as MHT (and PVD) don't provide reliable products at near matching prices. That's what airport administration need to work on to bring you back.

My basic rule of thumb, is that in today's market, a community's airport should be able to pull about 1.5 passenger boarding per airport draw population. Big cities, tourist cities, and cities near borders should have airports that do better. Both MHT and PVD now draw about 1 passenger per population per year, which is about 33% low. That means there is heavy leakage. ALB is right on target at 1.5 and BDL and PWM are strong at 1.6. BOS has an extremely strong 3.4. So either people in New Hampshire and Rhode Island are not traveling at the national average while Boston passengers are travelling way more, or BOS is taking MHT and PVD passengers. And Chris, I don't blame you for going somewhere you can get a reliable flight. A.netters know RJs = low reliability when something needs to be delayed or canceled and that is what MHT and PVD get, while BOS gets those first in line mainliners. And I don't foresee MassPort giving its competitors a break in the foreseeable future. They are a fierce competitor and will play with a firm hand to make sure every seat added in the region comes to them. That being said, I don't know why WN keeps growing at BOS and keeping MHT anorexic. MHT passengers are probably not going to BOS to fly WN, so they are basically handing passengers to other airlines.
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1508
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: WN August 4 schedule release predictions.

Sun Aug 07, 2016 4:01 am

They are showing MEM 3x Daily to MCO in the Spring Break weeks of March but they are showing it on days at the end of the extension in April as well.

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