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giblets
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:40 am

With 'AirForce One' , bearing in mind the cost to enter a competition (i.e all the work involved) to win such a contract , and knowing that Boeing "couldn't" afford to lose this one, the only reason for Airbus to enter it would be to drive down the price.

Could AF1 take up the Transaero orders or a couple of the unallocated ones?
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StTim
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:44 am

That would depend on how much of the specials need to be incorporated during the frame build.
 
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PacificBeach88
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:53 am

My guess is the funding will be in the 2017 budget (whenever that may get passed). It easier for everyone for an outgoing President to take any political flak for the spending, but a plane he/she will never have the chance to use. The 747-200s that the VC-25 are based on were the very last frames of that model off the line last time too, if I remember correctly.
 
AvObserver
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:16 am

Been expecting this a long time; I expect the line to close by about 2020, even if topoff orders appear. Even the freighters hardly sell anymore. Boeing did the 748I as an alternative, NOT a direct competitor to the A380 to keep its toe in the VLA market but that market itself isn't panning out as either BCA or especially Airbus had anticipated. It's sad but as another noted above, Nothing Lasts Forever. The market shift to big twins was swifter than either airframer anticipated and the 777 has completely obviated the 747's business case, especially in its latest 777X generation. It seems it's now only a matter of time before the A380 faces this reality too and I, as a traveler who liked the added redundancy of 4 engine airliners is sadder but not surprised by this trend. But by the time production does end, the 747 will have been built in all variants for an incredible just over 50 years! Aside from the venerable 737, how many other airliners have claim to that sort of longevity? As of yet, no others.
 
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OA940
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:12 pm

Sad, but predictable.

*Cue Titanic song here*
A350/CSeries = bae
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:24 pm

OA940 wrote:
Sad, but predictable.

*Cue Titanic song here*


hehe, for me:

"Cue You'll Be in My Heart song here (Phil Collins)

Yes, you'll be in my heart
From this day on
Now and forever more


or alternatively

"Cue I'll Be Over You (Toto)

As soon as forever is through
I'll be over you


with a minor change, if you allow me... ;-)

Remembering times gone by
Promises Boeing once made
What are the reasons why
Nothing stays the same
 
bmacleod
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:25 pm

Stitch wrote:
DocLightning wrote:

32andBelow wrote:
I thought they were going to order 4


Looks like just 2. The original projection of 3 or more was factoring in direct replacement for the E-4B fleet, which IMO is unnecessary.


The wiki page for E-4B says the E-4B was originally intended to be retired in 2009 but Sec. Gates reversed this decision. However the future for the E-4B still remains unclear.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_E-4#Recent_history
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
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anfromme
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:53 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Don't these items come off other planes when they go to the scrapper? I would imagine that it is quite expensive to have a wear house full of parts, which might be needed in the future.

If you imagine production ending in 2019/2020, there won't be too many 747s gone to the scrapper yet.
But all of that is why I was referring to Boeing's extensive experience in the field of long-term parts supply. They'll have a pretty good idea of the demand for different parts to expect over the lifetime of all frames delivered.

Even for larger parts, it's going to be much easier and cheaper to simply produce a few spares (how many spare rudders will be needed over 30 years for a grand total fleet of maybe 200?) than to keep the relevant production facilities in place.

Dutchy wrote:
And with the advent of 3d printing, it might become easier to just print the desired piece, instead of keeping large amount of stocks.

As soon as 3D printing is good enough to actually produce airplane parts, that is, because any spare parts would have to be up to production (i.e. certification) standards.

enzo011 wrote:
It wont be that big of an impact as the A380, but it surely will still need to be felt by the company in the next few years as they haven't taken a charge on all outstanding deferred cost yet.

I think you misunderstood me, as your point was exactly my point - Airbus has effectively no deferred development cost for the A380, while Boeing still has most of it deferred, hence the combined $1.3bn charges they took against the programme in the last few quarters.

enzo011 wrote:
The accounting block is also for the total 747 sales from the initial sale to now. So they have reduced the block to 1 555.

Finn350 wrote:
It is the 747 program, there is no separate 747-8 program. Boeing has delivered 1,522 frames and there are 33 frames left in the program accounting quantity of which 21 are under firm orders.

Ah - my bad, I thought this was for the 747-8.

DTWPurserBoy wrote:
The Secret Service and USAF will not allow a twin to be used as AF1. If they bought an A380 the American people would go bananas.

Airbus aren't even bidding, so you can relax ;-)
As for four engines... like many things before, that's a requirement that's definitely going to change at some point. Once the next replacement cycle comes up and the 747 is out of production, there's not going to be any other option. They won't custom-design a four-engine long-haul plane for AF1.
DTWPurserBoy wrote:
I am sure that two frames are dedicated to be the new VC-25B but you will never know where they are or if they have been built

Uhm - those the VC-25s are LN 679 and 685 and we know their exact first flight dates.
Equally, there's a pretty good record of every 747-8 built or under construction, along with assigned customer (if any).
See here: http://747-8.blogspot.com
Looking at that info it's not going to be that hard to deduce which planes are candidates for VC-25 replacement. Currently, there's none that springs to mind considering there are only four 747-8i built but not allocated - LH's rejected frame, Transaero's two birds, and one BBJ, in storage for over two years now.
I'm willing to bet none of them are going to be the next presidential transport.
As things stand, Boeing only this year got the contract to evaluate and design the planes' specifications, so chances are the VC-25 successors are still a couple of years away from having their first metal cut.

giblets wrote:
the only reason for Airbus to enter it would be to drive down the price.

Especially in this case, that wouldn't come cheap, though. Once you decide to enter you have to abide by the rules, provide info and put in a lot of work to make and present proposals. Quite a costly undertaking. Nah, I would have passed on that one as well.

PacificBeach88 wrote:
The 747-200s that the VC-25 are based on were the very last frames of that model off the line last time too, if I remember correctly.

Not quite, but close - but it's a bit more complicated anyway.
The two VC-25s first flew in May and October 1987. However, they weren't delivered until August and December 1990, i.e. the extra work required took over three years on each of them. And yet - the very last 747-200 didn't get delivered for about a year after that. In total, another two dozen 747-200 were built after the second VC-25.
That said, the VC-25s were actually the last pax-only 747-200s built.
42
 
global2
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 5:35 pm

Just wondering if the USAF couldn't use some as large transports. Don't they still have C-5's? They must pretty long in the tooth by now.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:52 pm

global2 wrote:
Just wondering if the USAF couldn't use some as large transports. Don't they still have C-5's? They must pretty long in the tooth by now.


These are clumsy from an operational perspective. The two decks of the 744 (belly and main floor) allow for a lot more floor space, so services can be in the belly and accommodations on the main floor with the upper deck reserved for operations and communications.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:59 pm

Aesma wrote:
When talking about a future product, Boeing is very affirmative. Launch will be that date, weight will be this, CASM that, etc. Then it doesn't happen like announced.

Here it's conditional conditional conditional.

Interesting.

CARST wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
What are they going to do next time 30 years from now? I am quite sure that the only airliners being built then will be twins. Will they demand a specially designed and built plane just for AF1? THAT will be expensive.


Okay, I'll bite. In 30 years everyone will be flying on blended wing bodies with 8-10 engines mounted on the tail of these game-changing designs.


Electric engines.

Or the planet will be a wasteland and we'll all be living underground and doing lots of virtual conferencing, no need to move.


Most likely planes will be burning hydrocarbons a lot longer than that. Electric cars are somewhat feasible, electric planes - no way. No, not even with future technology, unless we're talking something nuclear.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:12 pm

Sad, but inevitable. Considering EIS in 1970, not a bad run.

Engine parts are mostly assured from the 787. Other parts shouldn't be an issue.

As interesting as AirForce One is, it is too tiny a number to matter. I'm OK if the next Presidential plane were a 777.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:45 pm

I think Boeing shuts down the 747 line just in time to clear space in the factory
for the MOM project. It'll be a 50 year run by then , quite an accomplishment :)
 
747megatop
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:53 pm

United787 wrote:
I am glad I got to see the 747 being built at Everett before it is all done... The good news is that we will these flying for at least another 20-30 years...

Most probably yes and of course depends a lot on the price of oil. The biggest advantage of the 747 as a freighter is that the nose swings up and away allowing clear access to the belly for loading.
 
DTWPurserBoy
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:54 pm

anfromme wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Don't these items come off other planes when they go to the scrapper? I would imagine that it is quite expensive to have a wear house full of parts, which might be needed in the future.

If you imagine production ending in 2019/2020, there won't be too many 747s gone to the scrapper yet.
But all of that is why I was referring to Boeing's extensive experience in the field of long-term parts supply. They'll have a pretty good idea of the demand for different parts to expect over the lifetime of all frames delivered.

Even for larger parts, it's going to be much easier and cheaper to simply produce a few spares (how many spare rudders will be needed over 30 years for a grand total fleet of maybe 200?) than to keep the relevant production facilities in place.

Dutchy wrote:
And with the advent of 3d printing, it might become easier to just print the desired piece, instead of keeping large amount of stocks.

As soon as 3D printing is good enough to actually produce airplane parts, that is, because any spare parts would have to be up to production (i.e. certification) standards.

enzo011 wrote:
It wont be that big of an impact as the A380, but it surely will still need to be felt by the company in the next few years as they haven't taken a charge on all outstanding deferred cost yet.

I think you misunderstood me, as your point was exactly my point - Airbus has effectively no deferred development cost for the A380, while Boeing still has most of it deferred, hence the combined $1.3bn charges they took against the programme in the last few quarters.

enzo011 wrote:
The accounting block is also for the total 747 sales from the initial sale to now. So they have reduced the block to 1 555.

Finn350 wrote:
It is the 747 program, there is no separate 747-8 program. Boeing has delivered 1,522 frames and there are 33 frames left in the program accounting quantity of which 21 are under firm orders.

Ah - my bad, I thought this was for the 747-8.

DTWPurserBoy wrote:
The Secret Service and USAF will not allow a twin to be used as AF1. If they bought an A380 the American people would go bananas.

Airbus aren't even bidding, so you can relax ;-)
As for four engines... like many things before, that's a requirement that's definitely going to change at some point. Once the next replacement cycle comes up and the 747 is out of production, there's not going to be any other option. They won't custom-design a four-engine long-haul plane for AF1.
DTWPurserBoy wrote:
I am sure that two frames are dedicated to be the new VC-25B but you will never know where they are or if they have been built

Uhm - those the VC-25s are LN 679 and 685 and we know their exact first flight dates.
Equally, there's a pretty good record of every 747-8 built or under construction, along with assigned customer (if any).

I think you missed my point. Those frames are the current VC-25's--no frames have been allocated to the new AF1.

It takes a lot of work to turn a 748 into a presidential aircraft. It has to be hardened against EMP, updated communications, refueling capability (even if it never has been used), various not-to-be-discussed anti-missile and anti-aircraft devices and I would not be surprised to see a full operating suite on board. It is not just tricking out a VIP interior. From the time it is flown "green" quietly from Paine Field to Wichita it will be several years before it goes into service. It would cost more to rebuild an existing 748 into a VC25B than to build one from scratch. Plus the frames are under guard 24/7 while being built.

Eventually a large twin will have to be used--I'll be dead by then--and the two present aircraft just went through a complete interior refitting just a year or two ago. So they are good for a while yet. After 9/11 both airplanes were outfitted with equipment for the president to address the nation on television.
See here: http://747-8.blogspot.com
Looking at that info it's not going to be that hard to deduce which planes are candidates for VC-25 replacement. Currently, there's none that springs to mind considering there are only four 747-8i built but not allocated - LH's rejected frame, Transaero's two birds, and one BBJ, in storage for over two years now.
I'm willing to bet none of them are going to be the next presidential transport.
As things stand, Boeing only this year got the contract to evaluate and design the planes' specifications, so chances are the VC-25 successors are still a couple of years away from having their first metal cut.

giblets wrote:
the only reason for Airbus to enter it would be to drive down the price.

Especially in this case, that wouldn't come cheap, though. Once you decide to enter you have to abide by the rules, provide info and put in a lot of work to make and present proposals. Quite a costly undertaking. Nah, I would have passed on that one as well.

PacificBeach88 wrote:
The 747-200s that the VC-25 are based on were the very last frames of that model off the line last time too, if I remember correctly.

Not quite, but close - but it's a bit more complicated anyway.
The two VC-25s first flew in May and October 1987. However, they weren't delivered until August and December 1990, i.e. the extra work required took over three years on each of them. And yet - the very last 747-200 didn't get delivered for about a year after that. In total, another two dozen 747-200 were built after the second VC-25.
That said, the VC-25s were actually the last pax-only 747-200s built.
Qualified on Concorde/B707/B720/B727/B737/B747/B757/B767/B777/DC-8/DC-9/DC-10/A319/A320/A330/MD-88-90
 
DTWPurserBoy
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:56 pm

I think you missed my point. Those frames are the current VC-25's--no frames have been allocated to the new AF1.

It takes a lot of work to turn a 748 into a presidential aircraft. It has to be hardened against EMP, updated communications, refueling capability (even if it never has been used), various not-to-be-discussed anti-missile and anti-aircraft devices and I would not be surprised to see a full operating suite on board. It is not just tricking out a VIP interior. From the time it is flown "green" quietly from Paine Field to Wichita it will be several years before it goes into service. It would cost more to rebuild an existing 748 into a VC25B than to build one from scratch. Plus the frames are under guard 24/7 while being built.

Eventually a large twin will have to be used--I'll be dead by then--and the two present aircraft just went through a complete interior refitting just a year or two ago. So they are good for a while yet. After 9/11 both airplanes were outfitted with equipment for the president to address the nation on television.
Qualified on Concorde/B707/B720/B727/B737/B747/B757/B767/B777/DC-8/DC-9/DC-10/A319/A320/A330/MD-88-90
 
Okie
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:00 pm

My first post from the year 2035.
Why did Boeing not keep the tooling for the 747?

Sorry I could not resist. :lol:

Okie
 
hayzel777
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 1:06 am

Dutchy wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
YAY! The 747 has done nothing but suck money away from other programs just to keep it alive. It's sad to see it go but everything must go at some point.


And the 748i program has kept the A380 price down. The 747 was without competition, so it really was the money maker for Boeing in its day.

hongkongflyer wrote:
AF1s are so specific that it may even not technically possible to build a standard 748 first and then modificy it into AF1 standard.


What is so specific about the basic plane? I understand that there is a great need for a lot of electronic toys to play with, but if you have a green plane it should be possible to build this kind of stuff in. Perhaps the two AF1 planes are already build to the standard, Boeing must feel that this is a contract that they can't loose, so it must make some sense to build them as white tail, according to the specs of the secret service and waiting for government approval to destinate them as VC-25B at a later date.
If they are going to replace the E-4's as well, 6 frames in total, that is one years production right there :)


Keeping the price of the A380 down does not benefit Boeing in anyway. It may have earned money before, but it no longer earns money for them. There comes a time when you must cut ur losses and move on and now is the time. Boeing just posted there first lost since 2009.
 
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gegtim
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 2:10 am

DocLightning wrote:
Have the two AF1 replacements been formally ordered?

They're at Boeing Witchita being outfitted.
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 2:28 am

Since Boeing no longer keeps a presence in Wichita except for Dreamlifter ops it won't be Wichita.
 
airlinebuilder
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 3:17 am

All good things must come to an end. The era of the TWINS has established its grounds performing the same missions. The B747s have become iconic, not easy to see it end but it has served its purpose to propel aviation to innovate.

Though I was counting on the Iran Boeing Deal to somehow give the B748i a last look but.......Farewell my Queen.
 
Planesmart
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 4:34 am

Finn350 wrote:
Boeing wrote off all the deferred production cost of around $1.2 billion related to the 747 program. There is still $369 million of unamortized tooling costs to be recovered. As this was not written off, Boeing still expects to generate a profit of around $369 / 33 = $11 million per frame average profit of the remaining frames in the accounting quantity. Should they determine this is not feasible the maximum reach-forward loss would be basically around this figure. Additionally, there probably are ramp-down costs related to the production line.

Really a bit more than that, as Boeing Capital have been purchasing at full price.
They have taken on contractor work in the last 2 years, which has yet to be amortized, including related compensation claims.
There are contingent buyback liabilities which may be triggered.
There are fixed price and guaranteed parts availability undertakings.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 5:21 am

Beats me why the brass hats and neurotics can't be overruled. There isn't a showstopper reason why something else couldn't be developed.

If they really need reliability, then a 773ER. But instead they want a 748i with those GEnx engines that can't be flown near icing. Smart move. Why not just toss Boeing a development contract to design in an extra APU on the 773ER to provide electrical power?

The argument about communications is also garbage. The 747-200 is from an era when computers were huge and telecoms were equally bulky. New state of the art systems for a 773ER would be much smaller. So no need for the bubble.

A suitable rework of the reliable 773ER with the GE90 powerplant (proven in service) could be built to handle all the needs of the Presidency. All it would take that's hard work would be that need for redundancy in power systems. Other nations with similar aircraft have made the decision (Japan and possibly Korea...?) so why not the USAF?
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:19 am

CARST wrote:
In 30 years everyone will be flying on blended wing bodies with 8-10 engines mounted on the tail of these game-changing designs.

Highly doubtful for pax. Maybe cargo.
But the only game that would change there, would be the certification game... if they're planning on getting pax in something like that.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:43 am

hayzel777 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
YAY! The 747 has done nothing but suck money away from other programs just to keep it alive. It's sad to see it go but everything must go at some point.


And the 748i program has kept the A380 price down. The 747 was without competition, so it really was the money maker for Boeing in its day.

hongkongflyer wrote:
AF1s are so specific that it may even not technically possible to build a standard 748 first and then modificy it into AF1 standard.


What is so specific about the basic plane? I understand that there is a great need for a lot of electronic toys to play with, but if you have a green plane it should be possible to build this kind of stuff in. Perhaps the two AF1 planes are already build to the standard, Boeing must feel that this is a contract that they can't loose, so it must make some sense to build them as white tail, according to the specs of the secret service and waiting for government approval to destinate them as VC-25B at a later date.
If they are going to replace the E-4's as well, 6 frames in total, that is one years production right there :)


Keeping the price of the A380 down does not benefit Boeing in anyway. It may have earned money before, but it no longer earns money for them. There comes a time when you must cut ur losses and move on and now is the time. Boeing just posted there first lost since 2009.


Yes it does, especially in a duopoli. Those extra profits can be allocated to other programs in order to get a bigger marked share.

You and your mate encounter a bear in the woods. Your mate stands there and notices that you remove your shoes and putting on running shows. His remarks, "you cannot outrun a bear", you replay "I don't need to outrun the bear, I only need to outrun you ;-)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:53 am

Dutchy wrote:
Yes it does, especially in a duopoli. Those extra profits can be allocated to other programs in order to get a bigger marked share.

You and your mate encounter a bear in the woods. Your mate stands there and notices that you remove your shoes and putting on running shows. His remarks, "you cannot outrun a bear", you replay "I don't need to outrun the bear, I only need to outrun you ;-)



Both companies want to strike a balance between obtaining market share and hurting their competition. You want to hurt them but not kill them. Better the devil you know than the devil you don't and all those type of sayings.

If both are making healthy profits neither would want it to end. If one made some screw-ups and needs to make up some profits and tries to hurt the other it may just bite them back as well when a response is offered.
 
bmacleod
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 1:22 pm

global2 wrote:
Just wondering if the USAF couldn't use some as large transports. Don't they still have C-5's? They must pretty long in the tooth by now.


The C-5M modernization upgrades will reportedly keep 52 - Super Galaxies going past 2040.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_C-5_Galaxy
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 4:14 pm

7BOEING7 wrote:
Since Boeing no longer keeps a presence in Wichita except for Dreamlifter ops it won't be Wichita.


I recall Boeing was planning to do some KC-46A work at San Antonio, but it sounds now like the planes are being outfitted on the FAL at PAE.


Channex757 wrote:
Beats me why the brass hats and neurotics can't be overruled...A suitable rework of the reliable 773ER with the GE90 powerplant (proven in service) could be built to handle all the needs of the Presidency. All it would take that's hard work would be that need for redundancy in power systems. Other nations with similar aircraft have made the decision (Japan and possibly Korea...?) so why not the USAF?


I am guessing the fixation on four engines is not a fear of reliability, but that if you lose an engine you do not need to divert. With a twin, the Secret Service would need to be pre-positioned at each diversion point to meet Air Force One and secure it. That is going to add complexity and cost to each Presidential trip.
 
merlin4sc
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:09 pm

Kinda of a shame now that they are finally delivering 747-8 with a more appropriate engine on wing. In fact, the airplane finally looks like it was designed as intended after settling for substandard power all these decades. What about range though? We only have the whale jet now.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:06 pm

Stitch wrote:

I am guessing the fixation on four engines is not a fear of reliability, but that if you lose an engine you do not need to divert. With a twin, the Secret Service would need to be pre-positioned at each diversion point to meet Air Force One and secure it. That is going to add complexity and cost to each Presidential trip.


Correct. The issue is not ETOPS, but the need for a diversion should they be down to one engine. The security arrangements for POTUS are much stricter than for just about any other national leader. It would be mighty awkward if AF1 had to divert somewhere where there was not adequate security.
-Doc Lightning-

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Beatyair
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:00 pm

Boeing was holding on until they got the new Air Force One order. Now that they got that order, shut it down. The 747 has its place in aviation history, but not the future. There is now demand for 4 engine aircraft.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:51 pm

CARST wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
What are they going to do next time 30 years from now? I am quite sure that the only airliners being built then will be twins. Will they demand a specially designed and built plane just for AF1? THAT will be expensive.


Okay, I'll bite. In 30 years everyone will be flying on blended wing bodies with 8-10 engines mounted on the tail of these game-changing designs.

President Chelsea Clinton will be proud of such a wonderful aircraft!
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trex8
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:54 pm

This news suggests major 744F operators like CI and SQ have told Boeing they wont be going down the 747-8F road.
 
Viscount724
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:25 am

DTWPurserBoy wrote:
From the time it is flown "green" quietly from Paine Field to Wichita it will be several years before it goes into service.


Based on the following 2012 Wichita newspaper article, they won't be flown to Wichita to be prepared for service, unless somebody other than Boeing will be doing the work.
http://www.kansas.com/news/business/avi ... 83691.html
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing: 747 production may end

Wed Aug 03, 2016 4:23 pm

Guy Norris and Jens Flottau from AviationWeek weigh in: http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 41806ebdbb

(May require free registration)

They essentially say what many of us have: the rise of large twins and new or expanded airports means that frequency is allowing the traffic growth that Airbus (and to a more limited extent, Boeing) believed would require per-frame capacity on many routes:

But in some respects, the 747 is also becoming the victim of its own success. It created the traffic base that justified efforts by Airbus and Boeing to develop smaller widebodies. Initially, they could compete with a 747 on a unit-cost basis, but the latest generation of these aircraft—the 787, 777X, A350 and A330neo—is at least comparable or even better in terms of seat-mile costs. Airlines no longer have an argument to opt for big aircraft to drive down costs; in fact, they have instead chosen to reduce the risk of having to fly with empty seats. Even congested airports that would in theory force airlines to use bigger aircraft have not been a factor important enough to sustain a larger number of orders for the 747 or A380.

It is an irony that Airbus felt compelled to launch the A380 as late as 2000 to counter the 747. Only a few years later, and before the A380 entered commercial service in 2007, deliveries of the 747 started to decline. Airbus has since argued that is because the “jumbo” jet is now being superseded by the “super-jumbo” or “the flagship of the 21st century” that will pick up essentially all of the demand in the segment. But the A380 now appears to have more or less the same problem as the aircraft it was intended to replace.

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