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Cointrin330
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United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 11:57 am

United has added 5 new long haul routes this year from San Francisco (Xian, Huangzhou, Auckland, Tel Aviv, and Singapore). With their focus on growing SFO and DEN hubs, any chance we'll see more growth there? Believe a second PVG flight is in the works, a seasonal add to LHR too. was recently announced. Anything else that would be brand new? Any gaps in their network from SFO? Guessing BNE, GRU (if the economy there ever improves), MEL and maybe another city in Mainland China could eventually be added?
 
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787fan8
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:05 pm

MEL and BNE certainly sound like possibilities. I could see CKG being their next Chinese city.
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RayChuang
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:21 pm

I do believe that much of UA's new A35K (A350XWB-1000) fleet will be based at SFO, replacing the aging 747-400 fleet. I wouldn't be surprised that among the first routes for the UA A35K is SFO-HKG (Flight 869) and HKG-SFO (Flight 862).
 
klwright69
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:33 pm

US carriers are having a rough time to Brazil. I don't see GRU happening any time soon. I don't see any South America actually. I would imagine more international growth coming to SFO from UA.
 
VC10er
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:41 pm

I know that legacy United ordered the A350-1000 to replace their 747-400's, but one thing I have never understood was the pax capacity difference between them. Was the intent always to add frequencies? But, all the way back when legacy UA ordered them, I don't think they foresaw the new new routes that have been added to Asia (China specifically). I know UA has options for more A350's, do they have more options for 787's too? While they have created a spectacular route system from SFO, I wonder if UA will make more non-stop connections from EWR too. Although I's presume some destinations are too far to do non-stop.
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fun2fly
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:47 pm

The second SFO>PVG is loaded. 789 Service, probably where the new frames coming in Jan/Feb will be used.

Assuming the 77W's will soley be used to offset capacity from the 744 retirements, there are still 3 more 789 frames to be delivered that UA could use for expansion in 2017. So, maybe a route or two. Someone mentioned BNE - might be right for a 5x per week 788 route. My guess is that UA is discovering markets deep inside China in cities most of us never heard of like Wuhan where there are 10mm people.

I think 2018 will be more likely for expansion with the A350-1000 and 787-10 coming online.
 
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STT757
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:38 pm

fun2fly wrote:
The second SFO>PVG is loaded. 789 Service, probably where the new frames coming in Jan/Feb will be used.

Assuming the 77W's will soley be used to offset capacity from the 744 retirements, there are still 3 more 789 frames to be delivered that UA could use for expansion in 2017. So, maybe a route or two. Someone mentioned BNE - might be right for a 5x per week 788 route. My guess is that UA is discovering markets deep inside China in cities most of us never heard of like Wuhan where there are 10mm people.

I think 2018 will be more likely for expansion with the A350-1000 and 787-10 coming online.


Every indication from the airline is that the 77Ws will be based at EWR and possibly ORD. What that means is that their not a direct replacement, but those GE-90 Powered 777-200ERs operating EWR-HKG/TLV/BOM/DEL/PVG will probably be replaced by the 77W's. And that those 777-200ERs would replace the 747-400s for a period of about a year until the A350-1000s arrive.
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fun2fly
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:46 pm

[quote="STT757"

Every indication from the airline is that the 77Ws will be based at EWR and possibly ORD. What that means is that their not a direct replacement, but those GE-90 Powered 777-200ERs operating EWR-HKG/TLV/BOM/DEL/PVG will probably be replaced by the 77W's. And that those 777-200ERs would replace the 747-400s for a period of about a year until the A350-1000s arrive.[/quote]

You're right, there will be the downshift. Either way, the point is that there are not too many a/c to expand with unless the 744's are in the air until their last possible day prior to the regulation to give some more capacity (kind of like UA did this year by not retiring units as planned). I have not seen a fleet update from the latest filings updated on UA's website, but the 10Q didn't show any details. I wonder if/when they will have a top up order for the 787's? By mid year, they will only have 14x -10 on order.
 
yoplait
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:47 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
United has added 5 new long haul routes this year from San Francisco (Xian, Huangzhou, Auckland, Tel Aviv, and Singapore). With their focus on growing SFO and DEN hubs, any chance we'll see more growth there? Believe a second PVG flight is in the works, a seasonal add to LHR too. was recently announced. Anything else that would be brand new? Any gaps in their network from SFO? Guessing BNE, GRU (if the economy there ever improves), MEL and maybe another city in Mainland China could eventually be added?


Didn't UA also start Chengdu this year?
 
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RayChuang
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:47 pm

I really wonder can Boeing push the range of the 787-10 to 7,000 nm. If they can, then flying it from SFO to PEK/PVG might become possible. Mind you, I think UA will likely assign the A35K to the routes between SFO and PEK/PVG.
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:09 pm

I imagine the premium market travel from SFO being off the charts because of the regions wealth. Very smart that United is taking advantage of the market. I wonder what shift and cuts other United hubs may experience from the SFO buildup.
 
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Polot
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:14 pm

yoplait wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
United has added 5 new long haul routes this year from San Francisco (Xian, Huangzhou, Auckland, Tel Aviv, and Singapore). With their focus on growing SFO and DEN hubs, any chance we'll see more growth there? Believe a second PVG flight is in the works, a seasonal add to LHR too. was recently announced. Anything else that would be brand new? Any gaps in their network from SFO? Guessing BNE, GRU (if the economy there ever improves), MEL and maybe another city in Mainland China could eventually be added?


Didn't UA also start Chengdu this year?

UA started Chengdu in 2014. It was the first interior/secondary Chinese city they flew to.
 
klwright69
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:18 pm

No one mentioned UA launching SFO to India nonstop. Or is that out? AI beat them to it.
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:38 pm

SZN seems like a possible add.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 5:26 pm

Chengdu was launched in 2014 three or four times a week, and on a 787-8. Believe it is now seasonally nonstop every day and reverts to a four or five times a week flight out of peak season and is now a 787-9. Shenzhen and Wuhan do indeed seem like they could be logical adds. India, I would think is a very long stage length and UA may just have AI do that flying for them but who knows.
 
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RL777
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:08 pm

Atlwarrior wrote:
I imagine the premium market travel from SFO being off the charts because of the regions wealth. Very smart that United is taking advantage of the market. I wonder what shift and cuts other United hubs may experience from the SFO buildup.


I would agree with that, their upcoming SIN service should be a premium heavy route.
 
usflyer123
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:13 pm

NGO sounds like a good business route.
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a380787
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:34 pm

klwright69 wrote:
No one mentioned UA launching SFO to India nonstop. Or is that out? AI beat them to it.


I'm guessing they're purposely letting AI be the Guinea pig on SFO-DEL before deciding to jump in. With AI's reputation, it's not really all that hard to steal market share back from them.

Of course the elephant in the room is AC launching (I think seasonal?) YVR-DEL, which further sucks up any low hanging fruits for UA to pick.
 
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SFOA380
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:28 pm

The second daily LHR is now year round. WUH is already served nonstop on CZ... CAN would come before WUH anyway; the route was awarded to UA some years back. CZ is not *A but it may be enough to pickup all the local nonstop O&D to/from WUH. CAN is also serve on CZ. NGO was served in the past on a 772 and I'm surprised this wasn't one of the first resumptions when the 788 arrived. SIN isn't upcoming as it already started in the spring and has been wildly successful according to just about every source. This is why SQ jumped in. Their nonstop starts in October. AI has Delhi covered for now with thrice weekly on a 77L and all indicators are that's it's been quite successful. Brazil isn't happening for lots of reasons. Even when times are awesome on both ends it would be a tough market. TLV has been so successful it's going daily in the fall. Was thrice weekly on a 789/772 moving to daily 788 I believe. I think BNE and/or MEL would be the next logical adds. Other *A rumors over the past few months have been OS to VIE, SN to BRU and LO to WAW and as of yesterday, TG to BKK... That would be cool... The international terminal which opened in 2000 is massive with 24 gates. At the time it seemed impossible that it would ever be at capacity. Now it's packed much of the day. SFO will be a bit of a mess (not for *A) until 2024 when the new T-1 opens. The new T-1 was to have two swing-gates for added international capacity and that has been changed to six.
 
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RayChuang
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:52 pm

usflyer123 wrote:
NGO sounds like a good business route.


If you're referring to SFO-NGO, nope. A more appropriate flight would be DFW-NGO for Toyota executives (but that flight would be handled by AA or JL).
 
atcpeter
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 8:25 pm

SFOA380 wrote:
... The international terminal which opened in 2000 is massive with 24 gates. At the time it seemed impossible that it would ever be at capacity. Now it's packed much of the day. SFO will be a bit of a mess (not for *A) until 2024 when the new T-1 opens. The new T-1 was to have two swing-gates for added international capacity and that has been changed to six.


The international G side (used by most *A) has 12 gates and is now almost entirely full between 10am and 6pm. The midday arrivals (LX, NZ, UA from FRA/LHR, SQ) routinely hold for 20-30 mins waiting for a gate to open. That leaves early morning and late evening for any new flights that UA might want to add, which of course limits connecting opportunities.

As alluded, the A-side intl terminal is also almost always full, especially with AS and B6 domestic. The T1 expansion can't happen fast enough.
 
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SFOA380
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:10 pm

atcpeter wrote:
SFOA380 wrote:
... The international terminal which opened in 2000 is massive with 24 gates. At the time it seemed impossible that it would ever be at capacity. Now it's packed much of the day. SFO will be a bit of a mess (not for *A) until 2024 when the new T-1 opens. The new T-1 was to have two swing-gates for added international capacity and that has been changed to six.


The international G side (used by most *A) has 12 gates and is now almost entirely full between 10am and 6pm. The midday arrivals (LX, NZ, UA from FRA/LHR, SQ) routinely hold for 20-30 mins waiting for a gate to open. That leaves early morning and late evening for any new flights that UA might want to add, which of course limits connecting opportunities.

As alluded, the A-side intl terminal is also almost always full, especially with AS and B6 domestic. The T1 expansion can't happen fast enough.


I wonder if there's been any thought put into building a connector between A & G. G could certainly be lengthened significantly with some re-configuring; 10 more gates could probably be added. Good thing *A isn't on the other side... A is about as close to 101 as it can get...
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:43 am

More Australian expansion would make sense but given it has started an AKL service, it is more than likely going to build on the NZ JV to service any additional markets like BNE or a new destination out of MEL.

MEL's tech industry has certainly been growing at a considerable rate so this may see United (or potentially a longer shot in Qantas) starting a San Fransisco connection from here. Not holding my breath on that one though.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:33 am

Never say never but I can't see UAL starting GRU in the future as UAL can easily route GRU passengers through IAH and even ORD and IAD.
 
coolian2
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:46 am

Seasonal CHC would be very interesting. Assuming they could pull connecting continental Europe traffic
Q300/ATR72-600/737-200/-300/-400/-700/-800/A320/767-200/-300/757-200/777-300ER/
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smi0006
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:05 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
More Australian expansion would make sense but given it has started an AKL service, it is more than likely going to build on the NZ JV to service any additional markets like BNE or a new destination out of MEL.

MEL's tech industry has certainly been growing at a considerable rate so this may see United (or potentially a longer shot in Qantas) starting a San Fransisco connection from here. Not holding my breath on that one though.


MEL is an interesting one, I dont think there is room for both UA and QF on the route. QF seem quiet focused on MEL-DFW, and rumours of a new route for AA in my opinion would be a 787 LAX-MEL, so UA may beat QF to the market. But that's a lot of North America capacity & QF could surprise us, they have also done some interesting moves lately.

NZ and UA are interesting, the JV is NZ-US, they still compete for AU traffic. So I'm not sure how thrilled NZ would be about a new UA service to MEL taking some of their traffic. Maybe a 788 could work? Three weekly building to daily over peak season?

I confess I can't see BNE in the next 5years. But so much can change in that period.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:21 am

Would there be any market for a non TYO/KIX/NGO/ICN market in Japan or South Korea like Sapporo in Japan or Busan in South Korea?
 
hayzel777
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:21 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
United has added 5 new long haul routes this year from San Francisco (Xian, Huangzhou, Auckland, Tel Aviv, and Singapore). With their focus on growing SFO and DEN hubs, any chance we'll see more growth there? Believe a second PVG flight is in the works, a seasonal add to LHR too. was recently announced. Anything else that would be brand new? Any gaps in their network from SFO? Guessing BNE, GRU (if the economy there ever improves), MEL and maybe another city in Mainland China could eventually be added?


The seasonal second LHR has been converted to a year-round flight.
 
tpaewr
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:14 am

The same guy that built CO Latin routes from IAH and TransA from EWR is heading up the SFO growth. So I think we can expect to see lots of exciting additions in the future.


But I am sure some from the FT crowd will find fault with it regardless.
 
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Channex757
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:16 am

coolian2 wrote:
Seasonal CHC would be very interesting. Assuming they could pull connecting continental Europe traffic

But what season? Northern or southern summer? Makes forecasting difficult but it would potentially cut out one stop
 
VCy
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:26 am

Do you think a route like SFO-EZE is unlikely? Buenos Aires seems to be doing well in contrast to Brazil.
 
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:59 am

Channex757 wrote:
coolian2 wrote:
Seasonal CHC would be very interesting. Assuming they could pull connecting continental Europe traffic

But what season? Northern or southern summer? Makes forecasting difficult but it would potentially cut out one stop


Southern summer. Maybe 3x weekly 788 to start?

I agree with others for OZ/NZ SFO-MEL/BNE I could see. Maybe a LAX-AKL to go with NZ as well as NZ send more connecting traffic via IAH. Not so sure on LAX-BNE with both QF and VA.
 
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STT757
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:35 am

What about a seasonal flight to Rome. It's not a business route but I think it can be lucrative during the Summer months. Italians interested in traveling to California and Californians vacationing in Italy, good population of Italian Americans in the Bay Area. Alitalia previously has served SFO. Wine business?

Also along the same lines is Portugal, Lisbon could be another seasonal route for tourism (mostly Californians heading to vacation). There are large Portuguese communities in Oakland, San Jose and Santa Cruz. California actually has the second largest Portuguese population, beat only Massachusetts by a couple thousand. California has significantly more, 250,000 more, than New Jersey. EWR supports year round nonstops on UA and TAP to Lisbon and Faro. UA flies year round from EWR to Lisbon with a 763, and seasonally from IAD to Lisbon with a 764.

Besides Rome and Lisbon as mentioned Brisbane makes sense, CO flew to Brisbane and Cairns via Honolulu in the Eighties and early Nineties.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:55 am

NYC works to Lisbon for many more factors than just a measurement of expat community size though.

Geography (i.e. better located hub for that service) and the larger market potential of NYC and the East Cast in general are significant drivers of how that service can be sustained.

Not sure I see FCO or LIS as the priorities for UA at SFO but I guess we will wait and see what gems they have up their sleeve :)

As for BNE, it is a market to North America that has seen significant capacity added over time to LAX and recently the new YVR service. Not sure it will need new service for a while but for the future it remains one of many potential opportunities for them.
 
VC10er
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:25 pm

I have often used Lisbon to connect to other European destinations because it's less stressful than FRA. TAP's A320's to many cities not served non-stop by UA are quite nice. I think it's missed opportunity that united.com never offers a connection through LIS (from EWR) - I assume that has something to do with their love affair with LH. It would be nice to see Lisbon from SFO, then connect to anywhere, especially African destinations. Although, I am not that fond of TAP's long haul business class (unless they have changed the seats from the angled flat seats)...I also love Lisbon!
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
PMUA787
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:26 pm

I wish UA would start a well timed early morning ELP-SFO non-stop to conveniently connect with these new long haul routes like the current ABQ-SFO 0615. It was sad when the local press and the used car salesman mayor of El Paso Oscar Lesser congratulating themselves when G4 announced super convenient for the business traveler :roll: twice weekly flights to OAK.
 
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RayChuang
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:52 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
Would there be any market for a non TYO/KIX/NGO/ICN market in Japan or South Korea like Sapporo in Japan or Busan in South Korea?


Neither. Gimhae International Airport (PUS) near Busan is more a regional airport (Japan and China mostly) and Sapport-Chitose (CTS) is already running at capacity and may not be able to accommodate international flights from the US West Coast.

Like I said earlier, SFO-NGO could be considered, but given the gigantic dominance of Toyota in Nagoya, the better flight would between NGO and DFW, especially now that Toyota is moving its corporate headquarters to the Dallas area. And that flight would be handled by AA or its Oneworld partner, JL, using either the 777-200ER or 787-9.
 
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SFOA380
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:42 pm

RayChuang wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
Would there be any market for a non TYO/KIX/NGO/ICN market in Japan or South Korea like Sapporo in Japan or Busan in South Korea?


Neither. Gimhae International Airport (PUS) near Busan is more a regional airport (Japan and China mostly) and Sapport-Chitose (CTS) is already running at capacity and may not be able to accommodate international flights from the US West Coast.

Like I said earlier, SFO-NGO could be considered, but given the gigantic dominance of Toyota in Nagoya, the better flight would between NGO and DFW, especially now that Toyota is moving its corporate headquarters to the Dallas area. And that flight would be handled by AA or its Oneworld partner, JL, using either the 777-200ER or 787-9.


Not sure about DFW-NGO even with the Toyota consolidation. If LAX can't even manage a nonstop what makes you think DFW could? LA is the soon to be former HQ of Toyota NA plus has massive local demand (and connection opportunities) to Japan. UA served SFO-NGO in the past and if they decide to resume service it would be for an entirely different reason than AA or JL from DFW. Who knows, pretty much every auto company worldwide is setting up shop in the Bay Area because of the self-driving craze. Very rich talent pool here and is just another tentacle of the tech industry. Maybe this would be enough for UA to jump in with a 788...
 
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nikeson13
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:50 pm

SFO-FCO/MXP is easily one of the largest untapped markets for the summer. Flew DL FCO-JFK-SFO last month and saw almost 25%-40% of my first leg on the second one. AZ used to have seasonal SFO-MXP in the summer but cut it when they went bankrupt. Theres over 1.5 million Italians in California with a majority residing in Northern California and most originally from Northern Italy, so i'd see UA start SFO-MXP first before FCO.
Nikolas
 
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legacyins
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:20 pm

nikeson13 wrote:
SFO-FCO/MXP is easily one of the largest untapped markets for the summer. Flew DL FCO-JFK-SFO last month and saw almost 25%-40% of my first leg on the second one. AZ used to have seasonal SFO-MXP in the summer but cut it when they went bankrupt. Theres over 1.5 million Italians in California with a majority residing in Northern California and most originally from Northern Italy, so i'd see UA start SFO-MXP first before FCO.


SFO-FCO is a larger market than MXP. When AZ flew to SFO, they had a hub in MXP and hence that is why they flew it. It was a year round service and ended before their bankruptcy but right after 9/11. AZ stated their intent to enter the SFO market from FCO, possibly in 2017.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:20 pm

RayChuang wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
Would there be any market for a non TYO/KIX/NGO/ICN market in Japan or South Korea like Sapporo in Japan or Busan in South Korea?


Neither. Gimhae International Airport (PUS) near Busan is more a regional airport (Japan and China mostly) and Sapport-Chitose (CTS) is already running at capacity and may not be able to accommodate international flights from the US West Coast.

Like I said earlier, SFO-NGO could be considered, but given the gigantic dominance of Toyota in Nagoya, the better flight would between NGO and DFW, especially now that Toyota is moving its corporate headquarters to the Dallas area. And that flight would be handled by AA or its Oneworld partner, JL, using either the 777-200ER or 787-9.


One would think that CTS would find a way to make room for a SFO/LAX flight if on offer as they did for Hawaiian's HNL service; United already has operations there for it's GUM flight, which would make things easier. The other outside the box option in Japan would be Fukuoka in Southern Japan, which has had on and off transatlantic services in the past and could be viable with the 788; again UA already has operations there for GUM.
 
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piedmont762
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:21 pm

STT757 wrote:
What about a seasonal flight to Rome. It's not a business route but I think it can be lucrative during the Summer months. Italians interested in traveling to California and Californians vacationing in Italy, good population of Italian Americans in the Bay Area. Alitalia previously has served SFO. Wine business?

Also along the same lines is Portugal, Lisbon could be another seasonal route for tourism (mostly Californians heading to vacation). There are large Portuguese communities in Oakland, San Jose and Santa Cruz. California actually has the second largest Portuguese population, beat only Massachusetts by a couple thousand. California has significantly more, 250,000 more, than New Jersey. EWR supports year round nonstops on UA and TAP to Lisbon and Faro. UA flies year round from EWR to Lisbon with a 763, and seasonally from IAD to Lisbon with a 764.

Besides Rome and Lisbon as mentioned Brisbane makes sense, CO flew to Brisbane and Cairns via Honolulu in the Eighties and early Nineties.


They can't make EWR-FCO run year round, why on earth would it do better from SFO?
 
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IrishAyes
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:49 pm

a380787 wrote:
klwright69 wrote:
No one mentioned UA launching SFO to India nonstop. Or is that out? AI beat them to it.


I'm guessing they're purposely letting AI be the Guinea pig on SFO-DEL before deciding to jump in. With AI's reputation, it's not really all that hard to steal market share back from them.

Of course the elephant in the room is AC launching (I think seasonal?) YVR-DEL, which further sucks up any low hanging fruits for UA to pick.


I wouldn't classify AC launching YVRDEL as an elephant in the room, per say. It is going to cater heavily to VFR traffic residing in the Vancouver/Surrey/Richmond/Greater BC area, with additional feed from YYC, YEG etc given the large Punjabi Sikh diaspora residing in Western Canada. It is also going to only run 3 days a week between October and April.

A SFO-DEL nonstop on United would be completely different, catering to Silicon Valley/Tech/some Finance traffic along with the feed from many more U.S. cities relative to AC flows over YVR.
 
a380787
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:05 pm

IrishAyes wrote:
a380787 wrote:
klwright69 wrote:
No one mentioned UA launching SFO to India nonstop. Or is that out? AI beat them to it.


I'm guessing they're purposely letting AI be the Guinea pig on SFO-DEL before deciding to jump in. With AI's reputation, it's not really all that hard to steal market share back from them.

Of course the elephant in the room is AC launching (I think seasonal?) YVR-DEL, which further sucks up any low hanging fruits for UA to pick.


I wouldn't classify AC launching YVRDEL as an elephant in the room, per say. It is going to cater heavily to VFR traffic residing in the Vancouver/Surrey/Richmond/Greater BC area, with additional feed from YYC, YEG etc given the large Punjabi Sikh diaspora residing in Western Canada. It is also going to only run 3 days a week between October and April.

A SFO-DEL nonstop on United would be completely different, catering to Silicon Valley/Tech/some Finance traffic along with the feed from many more U.S. cities relative to AC flows over YVR.


And yet UA totally passed on the chance to jump into that market when it was wide open for them. It's likely much less "no brainier" than A.net wisdom suggests. UA launched SFO - CTU XIY HGH SIN AKL TLV ..... All while skipping DEL BOM or BLR. The 787-9 can likely do it with minor payload penalties at most, so it's definitely not an equipment or slot issue that's holding anything up. The Himalayas detour is only a few percent here and there, not a showstopper implied by some.
 
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SFOA380
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:26 pm

AZ has stated their intent to start seasonal SFO-FCO summer 2017. I don't know if this route could work year round. In 2015 there was actually more inbound summer demand from Italy to San Francisco than to Los Angeles according to Visit California (the statewide travel bureau.) We need someone to operate this link. It's purely O&D and has very significant demand from this side as well.
 
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STT757
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:15 am

piedmont762 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
What about a seasonal flight to Rome. It's not a business route but I think it can be lucrative during the Summer months. Italians interested in traveling to California and Californians vacationing in Italy, good population of Italian Americans in the Bay Area. Alitalia previously has served SFO. Wine business?

Also along the same lines is Portugal, Lisbon could be another seasonal route for tourism (mostly Californians heading to vacation). There are large Portuguese communities in Oakland, San Jose and Santa Cruz. California actually has the second largest Portuguese population, beat only Massachusetts by a couple thousand. California has significantly more, 250,000 more, than New Jersey. EWR supports year round nonstops on UA and TAP to Lisbon and Faro. UA flies year round from EWR to Lisbon with a 763, and seasonally from IAD to Lisbon with a 764.

Besides Rome and Lisbon as mentioned Brisbane makes sense, CO flew to Brisbane and Cairns via Honolulu in the Eighties and early Nineties.


They can't make EWR-FCO run year round, why on earth would it do better from SFO?


Like I mentioned, SFO-FCO seasonal. A seasonal SFO-FCO probably makes more sense than IAD-FCO. As mentioned previously there are 1.5 million people of Italian decent in California, mostly skewed towards Northern California and the Bay area. California, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are all tied for second place in terms of Italian American population all with about 1.5 million (NY is 1 with 2 Million). All those states have nonstops to Italy except California. Add on to that California Is a popular tourist destinations for Italians to visit.

SFOA380 wrote:
In 2015 there was actually more inbound summer demand from Italy to San Francisco than to Los Angeles according to Visit California (the statewide travel bureau.) We need someone to operate this link. It's purely O&D and has very significant demand from this side as well.


There you go, seems perfect for a seasonal 772.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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piedmont762
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:59 am

STT757 wrote:
piedmont762 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
What about a seasonal flight to Rome. It's not a business route but I think it can be lucrative during the Summer months. Italians interested in traveling to California and Californians vacationing in Italy, good population of Italian Americans in the Bay Area. Alitalia previously has served SFO. Wine business?

Also along the same lines is Portugal, Lisbon could be another seasonal route for tourism (mostly Californians heading to vacation). There are large Portuguese communities in Oakland, San Jose and Santa Cruz. California actually has the second largest Portuguese population, beat only Massachusetts by a couple thousand. California has significantly more, 250,000 more, than New Jersey. EWR supports year round nonstops on UA and TAP to Lisbon and Faro. UA flies year round from EWR to Lisbon with a 763, and seasonally from IAD to Lisbon with a 764.

Besides Rome and Lisbon as mentioned Brisbane makes sense, CO flew to Brisbane and Cairns via Honolulu in the Eighties and early Nineties.


They can't make EWR-FCO run year round, why on earth would it do better from SFO?


Like I mentioned, SFO-FCO seasonal. A seasonal SFO-FCO probably makes more sense than IAD-FCO. As mentioned previously there are 1.5 million people of Italian decent in California, mostly skewed towards Northern California and the Bay area. California, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are all tied for second place in terms of Italian American population all with about 1.5 million (NY is 1 with 2 Million). All those states have nonstops to Italy except California. Add on to that California Is a popular tourist destinations for Italians to visit.

SFOA380 wrote:
In 2015 there was actually more inbound summer demand from Italy to San Francisco than to Los Angeles according to Visit California (the statewide travel bureau.) We need someone to operate this link. It's purely O&D and has very significant demand from this side as well.


There you go, seems perfect for a seasonal 772.


If that's the case, you'd figure EWR to FCO would operate year round but it doesn't (having the most Italians). IAD to FCO makes total sense given the govt traffic, SFO to FCO doesn't seem reasonable and would likely be a waste of resources
 
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STT757
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:10 am

piedmont762 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
piedmont762 wrote:

They can't make EWR-FCO run year round, why on earth would it do better from SFO?


Like I mentioned, SFO-FCO seasonal. A seasonal SFO-FCO probably makes more sense than IAD-FCO. As mentioned previously there are 1.5 million people of Italian decent in California, mostly skewed towards Northern California and the Bay area. California, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are all tied for second place in terms of Italian American population all with about 1.5 million (NY is 1 with 2 Million). All those states have nonstops to Italy except California. Add on to that California Is a popular tourist destinations for Italians to visit.

SFOA380 wrote:
In 2015 there was actually more inbound summer demand from Italy to San Francisco than to Los Angeles according to Visit California (the statewide travel bureau.) We need someone to operate this link. It's purely O&D and has very significant demand from this side as well.


There you go, seems perfect for a seasonal 772.


If that's the case, you'd figure EWR to FCO would operate year round but it doesn't (having the most Italians). IAD to FCO makes total sense given the govt traffic, SFO to FCO doesn't seem reasonable and would likely be a waste of resources


Government traffic between Washington and Rome?.. There's a couple US bases in Italy but they're up near Venice and Livorno. Besides those bases are served via weekly scheduled charters to BWI, I know someone who PCS'd out of Aviano a year or two ago. Her ride back to the States was United Airlines charter from Aviano to Baltimore. Besides that how much Government traffic can there be? If it were of anything substance the route would be year round not seasonal.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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piedmont762
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:50 am

STT757 wrote:
piedmont762 wrote:
STT757 wrote:

Like I mentioned, SFO-FCO seasonal. A seasonal SFO-FCO probably makes more sense than IAD-FCO. As mentioned previously there are 1.5 million people of Italian decent in California, mostly skewed towards Northern California and the Bay area. California, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are all tied for second place in terms of Italian American population all with about 1.5 million (NY is 1 with 2 Million). All those states have nonstops to Italy except California. Add on to that California Is a popular tourist destinations for Italians to visit.



There you go, seems perfect for a seasonal 772.


If that's the case, you'd figure EWR to FCO would operate year round but it doesn't (having the most Italians). IAD to FCO makes total sense given the govt traffic, SFO to FCO doesn't seem reasonable and would likely be a waste of resources


Government traffic between Washington and Rome?.. There's a couple US bases in Italy but they're up near Venice and Livorno. Besides those bases are served via weekly scheduled charters to BWI, I know someone who PCS'd out of Aviano a year or two ago. Her ride back to the States was United Airlines charter from Aviano to Baltimore. Besides that how much Government traffic can there be? If it were of anything substance the route would be year round not seasonal.


Capitol to Capitol service - why it's served year round iirc

I know, IAD needs to be cut in favor of EWR - an argument I don't buy for a second
 
UAL777UK
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Re: United - More Long Haul Expansion at SFO?

Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:34 am

I can see SFO-MEL at some point, I don't see anything into Brazil in the near future with all its problems it has.

India I think will be jumped on at some point as well, as pointed out above they are maybe watching the numbers on AI before diving in?

What about something out of the box like SFO-MAN?

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