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enilria
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Posts: 10301
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:16 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3F CGA-HYL NOV 3>1.7 DEC 3>1.7 JAN 3>1.7 FEB 3>1.7 MAR 3>1.7 APR 3>1.7
3F CGA-KTN NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.9 JAN 0>0.8 FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.9 APR 0>0.8
3F HYL-KTB NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.9 JAN 0>0.8 FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.9 APR 0>0.8
3F HYL-KTN NOV 3>1.7 DEC 3>1.7 JAN 3>1.7 FEB 3>1.7 MAR 3>1.7 APR 3>1.7

4B ABQ-CNM OCT 0>0.8 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.9
4B ABQ-SVC OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>1.1
4B AIA-CDR OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>0.8
4B AIA-DEN OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>0.8
4B ATL-MSL OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>0.8
4B BNA-GLH OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>0.8
4B BNA-MSL OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>0.8
4B CDR-DEN OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>0.8
4B CNM-DFW OCT 0>0.8 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.9
4B CNY-DEN OCT 0>1.7
4B CNY-SLC OCT 0>3
4B CVN-DFW JAN 0>1.2
4B DEN-MCK OCT 0>1.7
4B DEN-VEL OCT 0>1.7
4B DFW-GLH OCT 0>0.8 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.8
4B LAX-MCE OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>1.2
4B MCE-OAK OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>0.8
4B MSP-TVF OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>1.2
4B PHX-SOW OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>1.2
4B PHX-SVC OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
4B SLC-VEL OCT 0>1.7

This was Southern Air Express? They no longer have a schedule filed with OAG. Their website appears to still be functioning.
6G AOO-PIT SEP 7>0 OCT 6>0
6G BFD-PIT SEP 5>0 OCT 5>0
6G FKL-PIT SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0
6G HGR-IAD SEP 4>0
6G HGR-PIT SEP 2>0
6G IAD-LNS SEP 3>0
6G JHW-PIT SEP 5>0 OCT 5>0
6G LNS-PIT SEP 3>0

AA CLT-STX DEC 0.1>0.0
AA DFW-JAC FEB 1.5>1.0 MAR 2>1.0 APR 0.2>0.1
AA DFW-MID DEC 0.5>0.2 JAN 0.7>0.1 FEB 0.7>0.1 MAR 0.7>0.1 APR 0.7>0.2
AA DFW-SJD DEC 3>4
AA LAX-SYD NOV 1.0>0.8
AA MIA-BSB NOV 0.8>1.0
AA MIA-GIG DEC 1.8>1.7
This is really just reduced from DFW
*AA MIA-MID NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.9 JAN 0>0.8 FEB 0>0.7 MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7
AA PHL-BNA NOV 5>6
AA PHL-BOS NOV 12>10 DEC 12>10 JAN 12>10 FEB 12>10 MAR 12>10 APR 12>10
AA PHL-BWI NOV 8>7
No longer slot sitting!
**AA PHL-EWR NOV 7>3 DEC 7>3 JAN 7>3 FEB 7>3 MAR 7>3 APR 7>3
AA PHL-LAS NOV 3>4
AA PHL-MCO NOV 8>7
*AA PHL-SLC JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0
AA PHL-TPA NOV 4>5
AA PHX-HNL FEB 2.0>1.4

AC MCO-YYZ APR 5>4

*AM DEN-MTY DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.2
AM FAT-GDL OCT 0.5>0.7 NOV 0.6>0.8 FEB 0.6>0.7 MAR 0.6>0.7
AM JFK-CUN NOV 1.0>1.3
AM LAX-GDL NOV 2>3
AM LAX-HMO SEP 0.6>0.7 OCT 0.6>0.7 NOV 0.5>0.7
AM LAX-MEX JAN 6>7
AM MIA-MID JAN 0.7>1.0 FEB 0.6>1.0 MAR 0.6>0.7
AM ONT-GDL FEB 0.6>0.4
AM SAT-MEX DEC 1.6>1.8
AM SFO-GDL DEC 0.9>1.0 FEB 0.6>0.7
AM SFO-MEX NOV 2>3
AM SMF-MEX FEB 0.4>0.3
AS SEA-PDX OCT 25>24 JAN 24>23

B6 BOS-SDQ DEC 1.0>1.2

BR IAH-TPE OCT 0.9>1.0

DL ATL-CAE OCT 9>8
DL ATL-RDU JAN 12>11
DL DTW-CHA DEC 1.4>1.1
DL DTW-EWR MAR 7>8
DL DTW-HSV DEC 0.9>0.5
Delayed start
*DL DTW-MUC MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0
*DL JFK-LIR FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.1>0 APR 0.2>0
DL LGA-CHO DEC 0.8>0.5
DL LGA-DAY DEC 0.8>0.5
DL LGA-DSM DEC 0.8>0.5
DL LGA-LEX DEC 0.8>0.5
DL LGA-MHT DEC 1.9>1.0
DL LGA-OMA DEC 0.8>0.5
DL MBS-MSP DEC 0.9>0.5
Interesting increase in a non-core route
*DL MCO-CUN DEC 0.5>1.0 JAN 0.3>1.3 FEB 0.1>1.1 MAR 0.1>1.1 APR 0.2>0.3
DL MKE-MSP APR 7>6
DL MSP-PIA DEC 0.8>0.5
DL MSP-SJU MAR 0.4>0.6
DL MSP-SYR DEC 0.8>0.5
DL RDU-TPA JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>1.9 MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>1.8
DL SLC-EKO JAN 1.7>0.8 FEB 1.7>0.9 MAR 1.7>0.8 APR 1.7>0.7
DL TPA-CUN JAN 0.1>0.3 FEB 0.1>0.3 MAR 0.1>0.3 APR 0.2>0.3

*F9 PGD-TTN JAN 0>0.9 FEB 0>1.0

I don't pay much attention to the G4 filings.
G4 ABE-PGD JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 ABE-PIE JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 ATW-SFB JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 AUS-MEM JAN 0.3>0.0
G4 AUS-SFB JAN 0.3>0.0
G4 AVL-BWI JAN 0.3>0.0
G4 AVL-FLL JAN 1.0>0.6 FEB 1.0>0.6 MAR 1.0>0.5 APR 1.0>0.6
G4 AVL-PGD JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 AVL-PIE JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 AVL-SFB JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 AZA-BIL FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.4>0.3 APR 0.5>0.3
G4 AZA-BLI APR 0.6>0.4
G4 AZA-DSM JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 AZA-GFK FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 AZA-GRI JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 AZA-GTF JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 AZA-ICT JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 AZA-IDA JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 AZA-MOT JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 AZA-PIA JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 AZA-PSC FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.4>0.3 APR 0.5>0.3
G4 AZA-RAP JAN 0.5>0.4 APR 0.6>0.4
G4 AZA-RFD JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 AZA-SBN JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 BGR-PIE JAN 0.6>0.4
G4 BGR-SFB APR 0.6>0.4
G4 BIL-LAS FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 BLI-LAX JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 BLI-PSP JAN 0.7>0.5 FEB 0.7>0.4 MAR 0.7>0.5 APR 0.7>0.4
G4 BLV-PIE JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 BLV-SFB JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 BLV-VPS JAN 0.3>0.1
G4 BMI-PIE JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 BMI-SFB JAN 0.7>0.3 FEB 0.7>0.3 MAR 0.7>0.3 APR 0.7>0.3
G4 BTV-SFB JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 CAK-PIE JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 CHA-SFB JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 CID-PGD FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 CID-PIE JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 CVG-VPS JAN 0.3>0.1
G4 DSM-PIE FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 DSM-SFB MAR 0.6>0.4
G4 ELM-SFB APR 0.6>0.4
G4 EUG-OAK JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 FLL-GSP JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 FLL-PBG JAN 0.8>0.4 FEB 0.9>0.3 MAR 0.9>0.3 APR 0.9>0.3
G4 FLL-TYS JAN 0.8>0.5 FEB 0.9>0.4 MAR 0.9>0.4 APR 0.9>0.4
G4 FSD-SFB JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 FWA-PGD JAN 0.7>0.3 FEB 0.7>0.3 MAR 0.7>0.3 APR 0.7>0.3
G4 FWA-PIE JAN 0.7>0.4 FEB 0.7>0.4 MAR 0.7>0.5 APR 0.7>0.4
G4 FWA-SFB JAN 0.7>0.3 FEB 0.7>0.3 MAR 0.7>0.3 APR 0.7>0.3
G4 GSP-PGD FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.4>0.3 APR 0.5>0.3
G4 GSP-PIE JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 GSP-SFB JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.4>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 GTF-LAS FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 HGR-SFB JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 HTS-PIE JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 HTS-SFB JAN 0.7>0.5 FEB 0.7>0.4 MAR 0.7>0.4 APR 0.7>0.4
G4 IAG-PGD JAN 0.7>0.4 FEB 0.7>0.3 MAR 0.7>0.3 APR 0.7>0.3
G4 IAG-PIE JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 IAG-SFB JAN 0.5>0.4 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 LAS-MOT FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 LAS-PIA FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 LAS-PSC FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 LAX-MFR APR 0.6>0.4
G4 LCK-PGD JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 LCK-SFB JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 LEX-PGD JAN 0.8>0.4 FEB 0.9>0.3 MAR 0.9>0.3 APR 0.9>0.3
G4 LEX-PIE JAN 0.6>0.4 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 MDT-PIE JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 MFE-SFB JAN 0.4>0.2
G4 MLI-SFB JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 OWB-SFB JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 PBG-PIE JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 PBG-SFB JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 PGD-PIA JAN 0.7>0.5 FEB 0.7>0.4 MAR 0.7>0.5 APR 0.7>0.4
G4 PGD-PIT APR 0.6>0.4
G4 PGD-RFD JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 PGD-SBN JAN 0.7>0.5 FEB 0.7>0.4 MAR 0.7>0.5 APR 0.7>0.4
G4 PGD-SPI FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.4>0.3 APR 0.5>0.3
G4 PGD-TOL FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 PGD-TYS JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 PIA-PIE JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 PIE-RFD JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 PIE-SBN JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 PIE-SGF JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 PIE-SYR JAN 0.7>0.4 FEB 0.7>0.3 MAR 0.7>0.3 APR 0.7>0.3
G4 PIE-TOL JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 PIE-TRI JAN 0.4>0.0
G4 PIE-TYS JAN 0.7>0.5 FEB 0.7>0.4 MAR 0.7>0.4 APR 0.7>0.4
G4 ROA-SFB JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 SBN-SFB JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 SFB-SGF JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 SFB-TOL JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 SFB-TRI JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.4>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 SFB-TUL JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 SFB-TYS JAN 1.0>0.6 FEB 1.0>0.6 MAR 1.0>0.6 APR 1.0>0.6
G4 SFB-XNA JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
G4 SFB-YNG JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3

HA LAX-OGG NOV 1.0>0.2

JJ JFK-YYZ OCT 0.4>0.3

MW IPL-LAX DEC 0>4 JAN 0>4 FEB 0>4
MW JRF-MKK SEP 1.4>0.4 OCT 1.2>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.2>0 JAN 1.1>0 FEB 1.1>0 MAR 1.2>0

*NK CAK-FLL NOV 0>0.7 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0
*NK CAK-MCO DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0
*NK EWR-FLL NOV 0>4 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>4 APR 0>4
*NK EWR-MCO NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2 MAR 0>2 APR 0>2
*NK EWR-MYR MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>1.0

UA CLE-DCA NOV 4>5
UA DEN-LAS DEC 5>4
UA DEN-MLI DEC 1.5>1.0
UA DEN-PSP MAR 3>5
UA DEN-SAF DEC 1.5>1.0
UA DEN-SJC DEC 4>3
UA DEN-YWG DEC 1.4>1.0
UA EWR-BUF NOV 6>5
UA EWR-CHS OCT 5>6
UA EWR-MSY NOV 4>3
UA EWR-MUC NOV 0.8>0.9 FEB 0.9>1.0 MAR 0.9>1.0
UA EWR-NAS FEB 1.4>1.1 MAR 1.8>1.1
UA IAH-BJX JAN 5>4
UA IAH-CZM MAR 1.1>0.9
MUC reduced on DL/UA. Why is the market weak?
*UA IAH-MUC NOV 0.8>0.6 DEC 0.9>0.7 JAN 0.9>0.7 FEB 0.9>0.7 MAR 1.0>0.8
UA IAH-NAS MAR 1.0>0.8
UA IAH-PSP APR 2>1.1
UA IAH-RTB JAN 0.6>0.8
UA LAX-BJX JAN 2>1.8 FEB 2>1.8
UA LAX-SBA NOV 5>4
UA ORD-BHM NOV 4>5
UA ORD-BUF MAR 4>5 APR 4>5
UA ORD-DCA NOV 13>14
UA ORD-NAS JAN 0.5>0.7 FEB 0.4>0.6 MAR 1.0>1.2
UA ORD-PSP APR 0.1>1.0
UA SFO-EUG JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
UA SFO-OTH NOV 1.0>0.6
UA SFO-SMF NOV 6>5
**UA SFO-SMX OCT 2>0.3 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 1.5>0 JAN 1.9>0 FEB 2>0 MAR 2>0 APR 2>0

*UP MCO-FPO SEP 0.0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0.1>0.3
UP MCO-NAS SEP 1.2>1.5 OCT 1.0>1.3 JAN 3>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2
*UP TPA-NAS DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3

UX JFK-MAD MAR 0.5>0.4

*VC BKW-CLT OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7

VX BOS-SFO DEC 1.8>3
More cuts. Amazing they can keep their gates.
*VX DAL-LAX DEC 4>3
*VX DAL-SFO DEC 4>3
VX EWR-LAX DEC 3>4 JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4 MAR 3>4 APR 3>4
VX EWR-SFO JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4 MAR 3>4 APR 3>4
VX LAX-CUN DEC 0.6>0.8
VX SEA-SFO DEC 4>5
VX SFO-CUN DEC 0.3>0.2

This appears to be Expressjet operating as Jet Suite.
*XE BUR-CCR SEP 0>0.9
*XE BUR-LAS SEP 0>1.0

ZK BFF-HON OCT 1.7>0
*ZK CEZ-PGA OCT 0.9>0.2 NOV 0.8>0 DEC 0.9>0 JAN 0.8>0 FEB 0.9>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.9>0
*ZK CYS-WRL OCT 0.7>0 NOV 0.7>0 DEC 0.7>0 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.7>0 MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.7>0
*ZK DEN-HON NOV 1.7>0 DEC 1.7>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0
*ZK RIW-WRL OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0
Last edited by enilria on Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10301
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:17 pm

enilria wrote:

This appears to be Expressjet operating as Jet Suite.
*XE BUR-CCR SEP 0>0.9
*XE BUR-LAS SEP 0>1.0

http://www.mercurynews.com/bay-area-new ... ts-burbank
 
usairways85
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:05 pm

enilria wrote:
AA PHL-BOS NOV 12>10 DEC 12>10 JAN 12>10 FEB 12>10 MAR 12>10 APR 12>10
No longer slot sitting!
**AA PHL-EWR NOV 7>3 DEC 7>3 JAN 7>3 FEB 7>3 MAR 7>3 APR 7>3
AA PHL-MCO NOV 8>7
*AA PHL-SLC JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0

So PHL-SLC goes all year?

PHL-EWR is not surprising with the elimination of slots.

Interesting that a PHL-MCO frequency was dropped after NK just added one.

It looks like AA coulb be settling at 10x day on PHL-BOS.
 
aaflyer777
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:16 pm

AA is running much larger equipment on BOS-PHL these days though so not a big drop in capacity. Used to be 12x E190s, now its mostly A321s and 757s.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:23 pm

enilria wrote:
FAQ


More cuts. Amazing they can keep their gates.
*VX DAL-LAX DEC 4>3
*VX DAL-SFO DEC 4>3


Agree. Has WN or DL stepped in with that argument? Probably a dumb question, but we are recognizing it in this forum, so one would think the airlines fighting to obtain or keep gates would argue for something. Can the judge intervene and end the battle at DAL?
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:50 pm

usairways85 wrote:
So PHL-SLC goes all year?

I was thinking they didn't fly it. I should take it out of the title.
SteveXC500 wrote:
Agree. Has WN or DL stepped in with that argument? Probably a dumb question,

To my knowledge they haven't.

usairways85 wrote:
enilria wrote:
AA PHL-BOS NOV 12>10 DEC 12>10 JAN 12>10 FEB 12>10 MAR 12>10 APR 12>10
No longer slot sitting!
**AA PHL-EWR NOV 7>3 DEC 7>3 JAN 7>3 FEB 7>3 MAR 7>3 APR 7>3
AA PHL-MCO NOV 8>7
*AA PHL-SLC JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0

So PHL-SLC goes all year?

PHL-EWR is not surprising with the elimination of slots.

Interesting that a PHL-MCO frequency was dropped after NK just added one.

It looks like AA coulb be settling at 10x day on PHL-BOS.

It is a de facto admission they were slot sitting, however!
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:56 pm

enilria wrote:
*DL MCO-CUN DEC 0.5>1.0 JAN 0.3>1.3 FEB 0.1>1.1 MAR 0.1>1.1 APR 0.2>0.3
DL TPA-CUN JAN 0.1>0.3 FEB 0.1>0.3 MAR 0.1>0.3 APR 0.2>0.3
*UP MCO-FPO SEP 0.0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0.1>0.3
UP MCO-NAS SEP 1.2>1.5 OCT 1.0>1.3 JAN 3>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2
*UP TPA-NAS DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3

Anyone care to comment on the massive sudden proliferation of service from Florida (non-MIA/FLL) onward South in to the sun destinations?

In addition to all of this there was SFB-SJU on G4 just announced and a crap-ton of Cuba service is coming. Why all of the sudden are all these markets getting served? We are probably seeing an increase of 5x in Florida Caribbean service if you remove MIA/FLL and some of the long-time MCO services like SJU. Obviously a ton of this is going to fail. It's just odd because these are all leisure markets except maybe SFB-SJU and legacy carriers don't usually get involved in these types of battles for leisure markets.
 
usairways85
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:57 pm

enilria wrote:
usairways85 wrote:
So PHL-SLC goes all year?

I was thinking they didn't fly it. I should take it out of the title.

Yes, AA currently flies PHL-SLC and an eastbound redeye return. It looks like it started for the summer season on 6/2/2016.
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:59 pm

Sad to see SMX go although it was inevitable with the pull down of the 50 seaters, although I expected it to be one of the last to go. I wonder if we'll see any upgauges to SBA or SBP. SBP is still an all CRJ station and with AS coming in next year, UA needs to defend their central coast market share there.

And I wonder if G4 would ever add OAK to SMX to replace the SFO flying.
Last edited by ericm2031 on Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:15 pm

*DL DTW-MUC MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0


Doesn't surprise me at all it's probably not coming back. :-(
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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flymco753
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:26 pm

klm617 wrote:
*DL DTW-MUC MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0


Doesn't surprise me at all it's probably not coming back. :-(


It's bookable next May, on the flip side FCO is now bookable in April, I really hope that sticks.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
bomber996
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:40 pm

enilria wrote:
FAQ
ZK BFF-HON OCT 1.7>0
*ZK CEZ-PGA OCT 0.9>0.2 NOV 0.8>0 DEC 0.9>0 JAN 0.8>0 FEB 0.9>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.9>0
*ZK CYS-WRL OCT 0.7>0 NOV 0.7>0 DEC 0.7>0 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.7>0 MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.7>0
*ZK DEN-HON NOV 1.7>0 DEC 1.7>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0
*ZK RIW-WRL OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0


So what routes will they continue to serve? I saw a few OAGs ago that they would be down to something like 17 peak daily DEN departures? The end seems to be coming quickly...

Peace
"We've recently upped our standards, so up yours." - Federal Aviation Administration
 
Flaps
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:41 pm

This was Southern Air Express? They no longer have a schedule filed with OAG. Their website appears to still be functioning.
6G AOO-PIT SEP 7>0 OCT 6>0
6G BFD-PIT SEP 5>0 OCT 5>0
6G FKL-PIT SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0
6G HGR-IAD SEP 4>0
6G HGR-PIT SEP 2>0
6G IAD-LNS SEP 3>0
6G JHW-PIT SEP 5>0 OCT 5>0
6G LNS-PIT SEP 3>0

This just reflects Sun Air Express being folded into Southern Express. Flights and destinations are increasing. Summer loads have been quite good thus far.
 
CIDFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:15 pm

Not shown in here but Delta is going mainline CID-ATL on its early morning flight/late return using a 717 beginning Oct 1st
 
FATFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:55 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Sad to see SMX go although it was inevitable with the pull down of the 50 seaters, although I expected it to be one of the last to go. I wonder if we'll see any upgauges to SBA or SBP. SBP is still an all CRJ station and with AS coming in next year, UA needs to defend their central coast market share there.

And I wonder if G4 would ever add OAK to SMX to replace the SFO flying.

I'm not surprised about SMX, it was struggling even before the Brasilia retirement.

I think UAX has reduced the number of California cities about as far as it will go for the immediate future.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
lavalampluva
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:43 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ


More cuts. Amazing they can keep their gates.
*VX DAL-LAX DEC 4>3
*VX DAL-SFO DEC 4>3


Agree. Has WN or DL stepped in with that argument? Probably a dumb question, but we are recognizing it in this forum, so one would think the airlines fighting to obtain or keep gates would argue for something. Can the judge intervene and end the battle at DAL?

I get the feeling that DAL management is more anti DL than they are pro VX.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
ridgid727
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:51 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ


More cuts. Amazing they can keep their gates.
*VX DAL-LAX DEC 4>3
*VX DAL-SFO DEC 4>3


Agree. Has WN or DL stepped in with that argument? Probably a dumb question, but we are recognizing it in this forum, so one would think the airlines fighting to obtain or keep gates would argue for something. Can the judge intervene and end the battle at DAL?


Perhaps it is posturing for the new owner. Maybe AS is planning some Ejets to DAL.
 
IPFreely
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:16 am

CIDFlyer wrote:
Not shown in here but Delta is going mainline CID-ATL on its early morning flight/late return using a 717 beginning Oct 1st


DL Connection has operated the evening ATL-CID flight at only 50% on-time in July including being late the last three days in a row. Switching to mainline is probably required before CID passengers reject DL Connection's poor performance completely.
 
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diverdave
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:40 am

enilria wrote:
DL DTW-HSV DEC 0.9>0.5

**UA SFO-SMX OCT 2>0.3 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 1.5>0 JAN 1.9>0 FEB 2>0 MAR 2>0 APR 2>0


I don't know why DL is taking so long to kill HSV-DTW. Why the slooooooooooow death?

Sad to see UA is dropping Santa Maria. That will leave them only G4. I think UA has even cut back service into SBA, and that left SMX in the cold.

Yet SBP seems to be doing well enough with both AA and UA.

David
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:41 am

lavalampluva wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ


More cuts. Amazing they can keep their gates.
*VX DAL-LAX DEC 4>3
*VX DAL-SFO DEC 4>3


Agree. Has WN or DL stepped in with that argument? Probably a dumb question, but we are recognizing it in this forum, so one would think the airlines fighting to obtain or keep gates would argue for something. Can the judge intervene and end the battle at DAL?

I get the feeling that DAL management is more anti DL than they are pro VX.

That may be. Delta is upsetting their monopolistic apple cart.
ridgid727 wrote:
Perhaps it is posturing for the new owner. Maybe AS is planning some Ejets to DAL.

I think they sell DAL to DL in a heartbeat.
 
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rangercarp
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:55 am

I really miss the "hover over" airport and airline codes rights now!
iwgbtp!
 
routeplanner
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:05 am

enilria wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:

Agree. Has WN or DL stepped in with that argument? Probably a dumb question, but we are recognizing it in this forum, so one would think the airlines fighting to obtain or keep gates would argue for something. Can the judge intervene and end the battle at DAL?

I get the feeling that DAL management is more anti DL than they are pro VX.

That may be. Delta is upsetting their monopolistic apple cart.
I think they sell DAL to DL in a heartbeat.


All I can say is don't be so sure of that.
 
IPFreely
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:21 am

diverdave wrote:
Sad to see UA is dropping Santa Maria. That will leave them only G4. I think UA has even cut back service into SBA, and that left SMX in the cold.


It's not the end of the world. Santa Maria is only 65 miles from Santa Barbara, 123 miles from Bakersfield, and 152 miles from Burbank. Lots of small towns are further from air service.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:39 am

I love how every LCC adds EWR flights in this once in a lifetime opportunity to grab EWR marketshare, and AA pulls back. Hahaha
 
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piedmont762
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:57 am

usairways85 wrote:
enilria wrote:
AA PHL-BOS NOV 12>10 DEC 12>10 JAN 12>10 FEB 12>10 MAR 12>10 APR 12>10
No longer slot sitting!
**AA PHL-EWR NOV 7>3 DEC 7>3 JAN 7>3 FEB 7>3 MAR 7>3 APR 7>3
AA PHL-MCO NOV 8>7
*AA PHL-SLC JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0

So PHL-SLC goes all year?

PHL-EWR is not surprising with the elimination of slots.

Interesting that a PHL-MCO frequency was dropped after NK just added one.

It looks like AA coulb be settling at 10x day on PHL-BOS.


Wonder if AA will add anything to EWR? I'll wager more frequentcy to MIA
 
lavalampluva
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:03 am

enilria wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:

Agree. Has WN or DL stepped in with that argument? Probably a dumb question, but we are recognizing it in this forum, so one would think the airlines fighting to obtain or keep gates would argue for something. Can the judge intervene and end the battle at DAL?

I get the feeling that DAL management is more anti DL than they are pro VX.

That may be. Delta is upsetting their monopolistic apple cart.
ridgid727 wrote:
Perhaps it is posturing for the new owner. Maybe AS is planning some Ejets to DAL.

I think they sell DAL to DL in a heartbeat.

Maybe that's the case now, but I didn't sound like it when VX first came knocking. And as time has shown, DAL hasn't been a very stable focus city for VX.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
JDAirCEO
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:54 am

VX and DAL... dont think AS will keep the slots. They are very close with AA and there is virtually no reason for them to maintain a struggling market and compete with their partner. No way DL would pay for the slots as the ones they have are 717s to ATL, if the demand was that high then those flights would have been upguaged by now.
I'm thinking jetBlue or for the long-shot, Spirit.
An MD-80 is great... in first class
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:03 am

diverdave wrote:
enilria wrote:


Sad to see UA is dropping Santa Maria. That will leave them only G4. I think UA has even cut back service into SBA, and that left SMX in the cold.

Yet SBP seems to be doing well enough with both AA and UA.

David


There was a dramatic drop in SBA after the Brasilia retirements but I believe they are up in seat numbers from upgauging.

Today UA ran 2xE75 to DEN, 4xCRJ to LAX (OO prorate), 4xE75 2xCRJ to SFO. AA had 3xCR9 2xCRJ to PHX and 1xCR9 to DFW. AS had 2xCR7 to SEA and 1xCR7 to PDX (going to all E75 in October). I have a feeling the LAX flights will eventually disappear with some possible upgauging to mainline to DEN and SFO, similar to what happened in EUG.

For SBP, UA has 3xCRJ to LAX and 3xCRJ to SFO, all being OO prorate flights. AA has 2xCR9 2xCRJ to PHX. AS will have 1xE75 to SEA next year.
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:51 am

Im surprised at least that AA doesnt maintain one CRJ flight to LAX to tie into the most popular international flights.
 
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diverdave
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:42 pm

IPFreely wrote:
diverdave wrote:
Sad to see UA is dropping Santa Maria. That will leave them only G4. I think UA has even cut back service into SBA, and that left SMX in the cold.


It's not the end of the world. Santa Maria is only 65 miles from Santa Barbara, 123 miles from Bakersfield, and 152 miles from Burbank. Lots of small towns are further from air service.

It is not the end of the world, but it is the end of legacy service to a lovely little airport. As I expect G4 runs trips out of SMX and not into SMX, it will be the end of the rental car concessions at the airport. At the end of the day, too close to SBA.

ericm2031 wrote:
diverdave wrote:
enilria wrote:


Sad to see UA is dropping Santa Maria. That will leave them only G4. I think UA has even cut back service into SBA, and that left SMX in the cold.

Yet SBP seems to be doing well enough with both AA and UA.

David


There was a dramatic drop in SBA after the Brasilia retirements but I believe they are up in seat numbers from upgauging.

I have a feeling the LAX flights will eventually disappear with some possible upgauging to mainline to DEN and SFO, similar to what happened in EUG.

SBA would be thrilled to have mainline flights!

David
Last edited by diverdave on Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
commavia
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:43 pm

IPFreely wrote:
It's not the end of the world. Santa Maria is only 65 miles from Santa Barbara, 123 miles from Bakersfield, and 152 miles from Burbank. Lots of small towns are further from air service.


Yep. SMX is quite close to SBA - it was only a matter of time.

JDAirCEO wrote:
VX and DAL... dont think AS will keep the slots. They are very close with AA and there is virtually no reason for them to maintain a struggling market and compete with their partner. No way DL would pay for the slots as the ones they have are 717s to ATL, if the demand was that high then those flights would have been upguaged by now.
I'm thinking jetBlue or for the long-shot, Spirit.


I have no idea if Alaska intends to keep the DAL gates or not, but I'll say this - Alaska could probably do dramatically better business at DAL than Virgin America purely because of the AA partnership (assuming AA doesn't demand some sort of carveout from reciprocal frequent flyer earn/burn and benefits for DAL). If the AAdvantage members in North Texas (of which there are millions) suddenly had the opportunity to fly nonstop to major markets out of DAL instead of DFW and still get their AAdvantage miles and at least some elite benefits, I'm sure at least some would take it.

washingtonflyer wrote:
Im surprised at least that AA doesnt maintain one CRJ flight to LAX to tie into the most popular international flights.


It's such a short flight that I doubt the economics of it would make sense at this point with an RJ. I'm surprised that United has stayed in the market as long as they have, but I think this may well have been a case of the market being big enough for one but not two. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if United exited LAX-SBP at some point and consolidated SBP completely at SFO.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:38 pm

commavia wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
It's not the end of the world. Santa Maria is only 65 miles from Santa Barbara, 123 miles from Bakersfield, and 152 miles from Burbank. Lots of small towns are further from air service.


Yep. SMX is quite close to SBA - it was only a matter of time.

JDAirCEO wrote:
VX and DAL... dont think AS will keep the slots. They are very close with AA and there is virtually no reason for them to maintain a struggling market and compete with their partner. No way DL would pay for the slots as the ones they have are 717s to ATL, if the demand was that high then those flights would have been upguaged by now.
I'm thinking jetBlue or for the long-shot, Spirit.


I have no idea if Alaska intends to keep the DAL gates or not, but I'll say this - Alaska could probably do dramatically better business at DAL than Virgin America purely because of the AA partnership (assuming AA doesn't demand some sort of carveout from reciprocal frequent flyer earn/burn and benefits for DAL). If the AAdvantage members in North Texas (of which there are millions) suddenly had the opportunity to fly nonstop to major markets out of DAL instead of DFW and still get their AAdvantage miles and at least some elite benefits, I'm sure at least some would take it.

I agree completely and that's why that won't happen. If you are AA you have three outcomes.

1) An LCC continues to hold the gates and trashes the fares ad infinitum. That's the current situation and if the gates were forced to B6/F9/NK it would continue to be the case, but this is the least likely outcome now and the most expensive to AA and WN. I suppose if AS keeps the gates and AA cuts off the code share/FFP then AS would in effect be an LCC having to charge low fares to steal pax from WN. Not sure why AS would want that role against their last remaining domestic partner.
2) AS gets the gates and keeps them with the AA frequent flyer program and maybe even code share if that is allowed under the current Wright Agreement. This costs AA a ton of premium passengers at DFW who now get the benefits of AA without flying on AA. This is a disaster for AA unless they force AS to pay some huge fee to have the FFP and/or code share which I think is almost DOJ investigation territory.
3) DL gets the gates and flies a bunch of 70 seat RJs to their hubs and a few mainline to LAX/NYC that to a significant extent connect passengers internationally with fares that are stratospheric. This is definitely AA's best option IMHO. It's probably AS best option as DL would seem to be willing to pay big $$$.

I think the outcome is that DOJ approves the merger and AS cries crocodile tears that as part of the settlement with DOJ they had to sell the gates to DL which is a boon to competition since DL has been locked out of DAL unless they win this lawsuit. I think DOJ will probably not require that sale, but would probably require a carve out of the AA/AS relationship at DAL which could be used for the excuse. Whether it is better for the DAL customer to have super-low VX fares to a handful of cities or a network carrier like DL with high fares to a lot of cities I guess is not a clear answer. If you are going to one of the VX cities is much worse, but if you want to go from DAL to LHR or even ABE it is better.
 
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dabpit
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:41 pm

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
*DL MCO-CUN DEC 0.5>1.0 JAN 0.3>1.3 FEB 0.1>1.1 MAR 0.1>1.1 APR 0.2>0.3
DL TPA-CUN JAN 0.1>0.3 FEB 0.1>0.3 MAR 0.1>0.3 APR 0.2>0.3
*UP MCO-FPO SEP 0.0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0.1>0.3
UP MCO-NAS SEP 1.2>1.5 OCT 1.0>1.3 JAN 3>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2
*UP TPA-NAS DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3

Anyone care to comment on the massive sudden proliferation of service from Florida (non-MIA/FLL) onward South in to the sun destinations?

In addition to all of this there was SFB-SJU on G4 just announced and a crap-ton of Cuba service is coming. Why all of the sudden are all these markets getting served? We are probably seeing an increase of 5x in Florida Caribbean service if you remove MIA/FLL and some of the long-time MCO services like SJU. Obviously a ton of this is going to fail. It's just odd because these are all leisure markets except maybe SFB-SJU and legacy carriers don't usually get involved in these types of battles for leisure markets.


Both TPA and MCO are large cities with a population that enjoys going to CUN and the Bahamas. MCO and TPA are leisure markets to those that want to vacation there but for those that live here we prefer to take our vacations as well and we chose to go else where.

I thought MCO-FPO was seasonal, they fly this with their ATRs. The DL increase on MCO-CUN is interesting, maybe an equipment downgrade in favor of more frequencies? They have used the 757 at peak times but typically see them use the MD or the 319/320.
Carpe Diem
 
lavalampluva
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:14 pm

commavia wrote:

I have no idea if Alaska intends to keep the DAL gates or not, but I'll say this - Alaska could probably do dramatically better business at DAL than Virgin America purely because of the AA partnership (assuming AA doesn't demand some sort of carveout from reciprocal frequent flyer earn/burn and benefits for DAL). If the AAdvantage members in North Texas (of which there are millions) suddenly had the opportunity to fly nonstop to major markets out of DAL instead of DFW and still get their AAdvantage miles and at least some elite benefits, I'm sure at least some would take it..


If that's the case I can't see AS keeping the slots/gates, especially since they have to pay rent on those gates. My question is what then happens to the gates. Do the go back to DAL and a bidding process happens? Could they sell them to a different airline? My guess would be the former. I'm not a hater of WN, but I would like to see a different carrier get the gates. IMO it would be better off for the consumer to have competition at DAL.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
FATFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:51 pm

commavia wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
It's not the end of the world. Santa Maria is only 65 miles from Santa Barbara, 123 miles from Bakersfield, and 152 miles from Burbank. Lots of small towns are further from air service.


Yep. SMX is quite close to SBA - it was only a matter of time.

SMX is even closer to SBP, only about 30 miles apart.

SMX airline service existed for years due to Vandenberg AFB traffic. Much of that has changed.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
phxsanslcpdx
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:05 pm

enilria wrote:
I agree completely and that's why that won't happen. If you are AA you have three outcomes.

2) AS gets the gates and keeps them with the AA frequent flyer program and maybe even code share if that is allowed under the current Wright Agreement. This costs AA a ton of premium passengers at DFW who now get the benefits of AA without flying on AA. This is a disaster for AA unless they force AS to pay some huge fee to have the FFP and/or code share which I think is almost DOJ investigation territory.


VX's two gates at DAL represent something like 1% of the total capacity in the combined DAL-DFW market. Even if every single Alaska customer at DAL were poached from AA at DFW, I think it's a stretch to call it "a ton" or "a disaster." And I don't think it would be 100% at AA's expense. Yes, there would be current AA loyalists who shift some of their flying to Alaska at DAL. But I think there would also be a decent number of fliers who prefer DAL and would jump at the chance to switch their allegiance from Southwest to Alaska/AA. And people currently flying with both Southwest and AA who will try to consolidate their flights with Alaska/AA. I'd think having Alaska at DAL would be better for AA than the VX status quo or another low-cost carrier.

lavalampluva wrote:
commavia wrote:

If that's the case I can't see AS keeping the slots/gates, especially since they have to pay rent on those gates. My question is what then happens to the gates. Do the go back to DAL and a bidding process happens? Could they sell them to a different airline? My guess would be the former. I'm not a hater of WN, but I would like to see a different carrier get the gates. IMO it would be better off for the consumer to have competition at DAL.


If VX/Alaska ends its sub-lease, the gates revert to AA. I think they're subject to the DOJ agreement through late 2018... which means AA would need to seek out DOJ approval to either use them or rent/sell them to someone else. And who knows what the DOJ might decide. AA might want to alter the lease terms to let Alaska have the gates dirt cheap or free, just to try to avoid the uncertainty/the chance that DOJ might mandate giving the gates to Southwest.
 
commavia
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:27 pm

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
VX's two gates at DAL represent something like 1% of the total capacity in the combined DAL-DFW market. Even if every single Alaska customer at DAL were poached from AA at DFW, I think it's a stretch to call it "a ton" or "a disaster." And I don't think it would be 100% at AA's expense. Yes, there would be current AA loyalists who shift some of their flying to Alaska at DAL. But I think there would also be a decent number of fliers who prefer DAL and would jump at the chance to switch their allegiance from Southwest to Alaska/AA. And people currently flying with both Southwest and AA who will try to consolidate their flights with Alaska/AA. I'd think having Alaska at DAL would be better for AA than the VX status quo or another low-cost carrier.


Agree. Even if Alaska keeps the DAL gates and develops a more robust and sustainable operation out of there built up, to at least some extent, on leveraging the AA frequent flyer base in North Texas, I'd hardly say it would be a "disaster" for AA. In any event, I doubt AA management is losing much sleep over this - indeed, I suspect that AA management is pretty happy about the Alaska/Virgin merger and has concluded that, if anything, it will be a net positive for AA in the context of a growing relationship with an enlarged and growing Alaska.

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
If VX/Alaska ends its sub-lease, the gates revert to AA. I think they're subject to the DOJ agreement through late 2018... which means AA would need to seek out DOJ approval to either use them or rent/sell them to someone else.


I thought the DOJ conditions - which is to say, the de facto DOJ control over what happens to the gates in the event of a change in control - went beyond 2018.
 
durangomac
Posts: 454
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:AA+PHLSLC,UA Drops SMX, UP Adds

Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:42 pm

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:

This appears to be Expressjet operating as Jet Suite.
*XE BUR-CCR SEP 0>0.9
*XE BUR-LAS SEP 0>1.0

http://www.mercurynews.com/bay-area-new ... ts-burbank



Actually it's Delux Public Charter, ExpressJet is EV now from the merger with ASA.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:55 pm

commavia wrote:
phxsanslcpdx wrote:
VX's two gates at DAL represent something like 1% of the total capacity in the combined DAL-DFW market. Even if every single Alaska customer at DAL were poached from AA at DFW, I think it's a stretch to call it "a ton" or "a disaster." And I don't think it would be 100% at AA's expense. Yes, there would be current AA loyalists who shift some of their flying to Alaska at DAL. But I think there would also be a decent number of fliers who prefer DAL and would jump at the chance to switch their allegiance from Southwest to Alaska/AA. And people currently flying with both Southwest and AA who will try to consolidate their flights with Alaska/AA. I'd think having Alaska at DAL would be better for AA than the VX status quo or another low-cost carrier.


Agree. Even if Alaska keeps the DAL gates and develops a more robust and sustainable operation out of there built up, to at least some extent, on leveraging the AA frequent flyer base in North Texas, I'd hardly say it would be a "disaster" for AA. In any event, I doubt AA management is losing much sleep over this - indeed, I suspect that AA management is pretty happy about the Alaska/Virgin merger and has concluded that, if anything, it will be a net positive for AA in the context of a growing relationship with an enlarged and growing Alaska.

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
If VX/Alaska ends its sub-lease, the gates revert to AA. I think they're subject to the DOJ agreement through late 2018... which means AA would need to seek out DOJ approval to either use them or rent/sell them to someone else.


I thought the DOJ conditions - which is to say, the de facto DOJ control over what happens to the gates in the event of a change in control - went beyond 2018.

Perhaps disaster is a bit strong, but the markets where VX is presently operating are not "just 4 markets" as if it was ICT/MSY/AMA/SMF. These are *the* 4 markets that are most important to business travelers. Those are markets where the real elites in the AA program routinely fly. If they are flying from their mansion in Dallas their revenue is gone from AA metal and retained by AS with only a tiny fee for mileage accrual.

I agree. DOJ controls the gates. If they give them to WN I suggest that competition is dead and buried.

durangomac wrote:
Actually it's Delux Public Charter, ExpressJet is EV now from the merger with ASA.

The linked article has the wrong name?
 
durangomac
Posts: 454
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:08 pm

enilria wrote:
durangomac wrote:
Actually it's Delux Public Charter, ExpressJet is EV now from the merger with ASA.

The linked article has the wrong name?


The article has Jet Suite selling and managing the flights and contracting to Delux Public Charter to actually fly the EMB-135 routes. The article references both Jet Suite and Delux Public Charter and no mention of ExpressJet.
 
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OzarkD9S
Posts: 5733
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:18 pm

The whole DAL thing has been a joke for decades. I don't really care who gets the 2 VX gates in the long run though obviously giving them to WN would be a farce and I personally think WN should be forced to go back to the originally agreed upon 16 gates. But I digress. My interest lies in the DCA/LGA slots currently tied to DAL via VX and what AS might do with them should they bail on DAL. Do they sell them or make them work to the West Coast via existing in-perimeter AS markets? Or does AS open a different scissor hublet elsewhere?
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:44 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
Because this is normal with the DOJ/DOT. VS is an "LCC" thus they automatically give more public benefit than the US3 possibly could in the governments eyes. Also the DOT is very good at awarding gates, slots, routes, etc. based off of things like promised capacity only to see the capacity cut after the airline flies the route for a month. They don't look at logical stuff like who is going to be profitable thus really be able to add capacity.


Yup, like awarding DL routes like MSP-HND which have no chance of being profitable after DL's previous failed HND routes. I guess DL must be the "love child" of the Obama administration too!

There's plenty of research to show that LCC's do provide more public benefit than legacies in these types of cases. You know why traffic has surged at DCA in the past few years, it's because slots went from legacies to LCC's. Fares dropped and there was more capacity added.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:55 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
There's plenty of research to show that LCC's do provide more public benefit than legacies in these types of cases. You know why traffic has surged at DCA in the past few years, it's because slots went from legacies to LCC's. Fares dropped and there was more capacity added.


Not sure what "these types of cases" are being referred to, but I'd just say that - as has been discussed at length numerous times in the past - it all depends on what the definition of "public benefit" is. If "public benefit' is defined as more seats and lower fares - as it seems to be above - then unquestionably more competition from more airlines furthers that goal. But not everybody necessarily defines "public benefit" as more seats and lower fares.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10301
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS

Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:29 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
The whole DAL thing has been a joke for decades. I don't really care who gets the 2 VX gates in the long run though obviously giving them to WN would be a farce and I personally think WN should be forced to go back to the originally agreed upon 16 gates. But I digress. My interest lies in the DCA/LGA slots currently tied to DAL via VX and what AS might do with them should they bail on DAL. Do they sell them or make them work to the West Coast via existing in-perimeter AS markets? Or does AS open a different scissor hublet elsewhere?

deltal1011man wrote:
Now I will say, WN is the love child of the Obama administration. Very possible WN might scream and get something done about it. However no judge is going to let WN have 100% of the DAL gates with DL (or any other carrier(s)) wanting to expand there. I suspect that is why WN will leave it alone.

of course the DAL situation is amazingly stupid as it is. The longer this s**t show drags how the worse the DOT/DOJ look.

1000% agree

I'd rather the gates go to an LCC, but since nobody seems to be in the queue, DL totally deserves the gates. Sometimes you are the windshield and sometimes you are the bug. Most of the time DL is the windshield, but in this case DL is the one suffering at the hands of a monopolist and it is sad that WN has adopted the same strategies as the legacies to control airports and thus prices.
FlyPNS1 wrote:
Yup, like awarding DL routes like MSP-HND which have no chance of being profitable after DL's previous failed HND routes. I guess DL must be the "love child" of the Obama administration too!

If they drop MSP-NRT AND they start telling their passengers how inconvenient NRT is compared to HND it might stick, but the second one is where they keep going wrong. I think the first one is for sure and it'll be just the 2nd time they have done that with HND (LAX-NRT is going away). They kept both in their other attempts that have failed.

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