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Revelation
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SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:11 pm

Some people expect SQ as first operator of the A380 will renew their A380 leases automatically, but their EVP is saying (AvWeek, http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 0-decision , paywall) that while they are still suitable for high-density city pairs, “The A380 was conceived when things were much more bullish.”.

I'm not sure if he's saying it was conceived when SQ was more bullish, or Airbus was more bullish, or the entire aviation industry was more bullish, but in any case it's not an endorsement of the A380.

SQ's situation is far more complicated than it was in the 2000s due to a lot of ambitious competitors in their home market.

The article goes on to say that SQ is in the middle of a massive fleet renewal program featuring A350-900/-900ULR and 787-10, and are "keenly following" larger twin offerings from Boeing (777X) and Airbus (A350-2000).

So it'll be interesting to see if SQ's A380s end up on the used market. It seems quite likely some if not all of the early frames will. Then it'll be a matter of deciding how long to keep the A380s in their fleet for those high-density city pairs.
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RL777
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:55 pm

I imagine the current leases will probably be extended through 2020 to bridge the gap until they make a decision on fleet renewal. Based on that article I think they'll go for more A359s and the 779 at the top end of the fleet.
 
justloveplanes
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:05 pm

Revelation wrote:

The article goes on to say that SQ is in the middle of a massive fleet renewal program featuring A350-900/-900ULR and 787-10, and are "keenly following" larger twin offerings from Boeing (777X) and Airbus (A350-2000).

.


A350-2000? Is that right?
 
texdravid
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:12 pm

The market has changed. Competitors have grown stronger, and they are using cities that naturally have better connectivity and distance than Changi.

Use of the 788/9 and 350 opens up direct nonstop services to secondary and tertiary cities.

Finally, I believe anecdotally that Asians are coming around
To frequency rather than one or two big flights a day between city pairs.

A 380 is an emirati plane at the end of the day with a few
Exceptions here and there.
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:30 pm

justloveplanes wrote:
Revelation wrote:

The article goes on to say that SQ is in the middle of a massive fleet renewal program featuring A350-900/-900ULR and 787-10, and are "keenly following" larger twin offerings from Boeing (777X) and Airbus (A350-2000).

.


A350-2000? Is that right?


That's the terminology used in the article for the proposed A350-1000 stretch. Given they have a lot of A359s it seems they'd want a bigger jump in size than the -1000 offers.
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jeffrey0032j
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:38 pm

RL777 wrote:
I imagine the current leases will probably be extended through 2020 to bridge the gap until they make a decision on fleet renewal. Based on that article I think they'll go for more A359s and the 779 at the top end of the fleet.

I would expect them to return the first 5 frames to the lessor based on the delivery schedules of the 5 new ones they have on order with Airbus, ie removing one old one after receiving a new one.
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:42 pm

RL777 wrote:
I imagine the current leases will probably be extended through 2020 to bridge the gap until they make a decision on fleet renewal. Based on that article I think they'll go for more A359s and the 779 at the top end of the fleet.


That could happen, based on the "demand" they are forecasting which of course factors in the competitive elements. On the other hand, the article spends a lot of time discussing the presence of a lot of competition now and in the near future so they might want to down size the A380 fleet starting earlier than 2020 whilst taking on the five new A380s they still have on order as well as more A359s to back-fill routes with less demand.

It must be very expensive for them to be taking on all the A359s and 787-10s whilst dealing with the increased competition.

On the other hand their customers are used to a lot of the premium features of the A380.

It'll be interesting to see how it all turns out.

texdravid wrote:
The market has changed. Competitors have grown stronger, and they are using cities that naturally have better connectivity and distance than Changi.

Use of the 788/9 and 350 opens up direct nonstop services to secondary and tertiary cities.

Finally, I believe anecdotally that Asians are coming around
To frequency rather than one or two big flights a day between city pairs.

A 380 is an emirati plane at the end of the day with a few
Exceptions here and there.


I agree with what you are saying overall, but keep in mind the only 787 they currently have on order is the -10, for which they are the launch customer.
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:44 pm

I wouldn't be surprised that SQ is looking at buying the 777-9 to replace the A380-800's eventually. Given that the 779 has the same pax/cargo capacity as the 744 but with lower fuel burn on a per-passenger basis on long flights, I wouldn't be surprised that Boeing eventually sends up selling a lot of 779's as true 744 replacements.
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:58 pm

I do not think that SQ will renew the A380 leases. With 67 orders for the A350 (of which 4 have already been delivered), and 30 more for the 787-10, there is just zero need for them. SQ was the launch customer and that gave them a ton of publicity. With that said, they tried it and realized it does not work for them. With the geographic obstacles that SIN presents, the A380 does nothing to enhance their network. It is not like DXB, where EK can bring together Europe, Asia, Australia and N.A. perfectly. The A380 is ideal for them. For SQ, not so much. I think that eventually, SQ will convert 20 or 25 of their A350-900 orders for the A350-1000. It just makes sense from a capacity standpoint and seems like an ideal plane for their network. I think that the SQ A380's will find a home at BA in the near future.
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:05 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
they tried it and realized it does not work for them


To me that's the question I can't answer. I think it works for them but not well enough to carry 19 frames and they still have five new ones on order. That suggests returning the ones on lease and using the new ones for back fill. But what will the end game be? Will they stabilize at around a dozen frames for the highest density routes or will they just phase out the A380 entirely? Will the big twins be able to offer a good enough premium product to meet their standards, or will the standards decline in the face of increasing competition, or will they need the same or higher standards to differentiate themselves from the competition? It should be very interesting to watch.
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RL777
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:01 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
RL777 wrote:
I imagine the current leases will probably be extended through 2020 to bridge the gap until they make a decision on fleet renewal. Based on that article I think they'll go for more A359s and the 779 at the top end of the fleet.

I would expect them to return the first 5 frames to the lessor based on the delivery schedules of the 5 new ones they have on order with Airbus, ie removing one old one after receiving a new one.



Agreed, I should've clarified that in my original post. Swapping out the older build frames for the 5 on order seems imminent to bridge the gap until new aircraft enter the fleet. Does anybody know how R class is doing ? I believe that an updated F would be more than suitable at the top end considering that F demand is statistically declining. As for the 787-10s, I was under the impression that they would be allocated to Scoot and that SQ or is that incorrect ?

Thanks,
RL
 
Bald1983
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:19 pm

Revelation wrote:
Some people expect SQ as first operator of the A380 will renew their A380 leases automatically, but their EVP is saying (AvWeek, http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 0-decision , paywall) that while they are still suitable for high-density city pairs, “The A380 was conceived when things were much more bullish.”.

I'm not sure if he's saying it was conceived when SQ was more bullish, or Airbus was more bullish, or the entire aviation industry was more bullish, but in any case it's not an endorsement of the A380.

SQ's situation is far more complicated than it was in the 2000s due to a lot of ambitious competitors in their home market.

The article goes on to say that SQ is in the middle of a massive fleet renewal program featuring A350-900/-900ULR and 787-10, and are "keenly following" larger twin offerings from Boeing (777X) and Airbus (A350-2000).

So it'll be interesting to see if SQ's A380s end up on the used market. It seems quite likely some if not all of the early frames will. Then it'll be a matter of deciding how long to keep the A380s in their fleet for those high-density city pairs.


I said it in the beginning, Boeing made the right call and Airbus the wrong call on future planes. The A-380 was designed for a long haul system where people would be funneled in to a few very large hubs to catch their international flights, whereas Boeing designed a plane that could fly non-stop on long thinner routes. Airbus agrees, I believe that Boeing was right, hence the A-350. I do not want to knock the technical advancements of any of the planes. However, the passenger planes future is long haul twins.
 
dubaiamman243
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:20 pm

remember that SIA operates some of the oldest and most inefficient, poor production A380s
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PW100
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:59 pm

Revelation wrote:
Some people expect SQ as first operator of the A380 will renew their A380 leases automatically, . . .

So it'll be interesting to see if SQ's A380s end up on the used market. It seems quite likely some if not all of the early frames will. Then it'll be a matter of deciding how long to keep the A380s in their fleet for those high-density city pairs.


It seems to me that SQ is playing hardball in the lease extension negotiation game. Otherwise their decision would already have been made, and there would be no need to drag this on for so long.

Of course SQ knows very well that it will be tough for the lease owner to place these frames in a relatively short time frame. And that will also require expensive refurb. So they are in a pretty good position to dig for the best lease re-rates. I'm sure that their original lease contract would have pre-negotiated re-lease rates, but I suspect SQ might feel that they can do better than that, given the current market conditions.

If they can get really good lease rates, then high utilization is not longer very important. They can use these frames on some of their shorter high-capacity routes, where their higher fuel consumption is not an issue. Some 3-5 extra A380s with really low cost of ownership might provide useful flexibility in in future fleet planning.

Not saying it is done deal, but obviously there must be something going on for retaining them, otherwise there is no reason for SQ to drag this on for so long already.

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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:12 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Some people expect SQ as first operator of the A380 will renew their A380 leases automatically, but their EVP is saying (AvWeek, http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 0-decision , paywall) that while they are still suitable for high-density city pairs, “The A380 was conceived when things were much more bullish.”.

I'm not sure if he's saying it was conceived when SQ was more bullish, or Airbus was more bullish, or the entire aviation industry was more bullish, but in any case it's not an endorsement of the A380.

SQ's situation is far more complicated than it was in the 2000s due to a lot of ambitious competitors in their home market.

The article goes on to say that SQ is in the middle of a massive fleet renewal program featuring A350-900/-900ULR and 787-10, and are "keenly following" larger twin offerings from Boeing (777X) and Airbus (A350-2000).

So it'll be interesting to see if SQ's A380s end up on the used market. It seems quite likely some if not all of the early frames will. Then it'll be a matter of deciding how long to keep the A380s in their fleet for those high-density city pairs.


I said it in the beginning, Boeing made the right call and Airbus the wrong call on future planes. The A-380 was designed for a long haul system where people would be funneled in to a few very large hubs to catch their international flights, whereas Boeing designed a plane that could fly non-stop on long thinner routes. Airbus agrees, I believe that Boeing was right, hence the A-350. I do not want to knock the technical advancements of any of the planes. However, the passenger planes future is long haul twins.


Neither Boeing nor Airbus really gambled on either the hub and spoke system or direct flights, hence the line-up 787 - 777 - 747 and A330Neo - A350 - A380. The A380 is a niche plane, but air travel will continue to grow, so perhaps it was too soon. I feel they are drecking out current orders, in order to have a potential A380-900 / A380-850NEO. Remember that the B779 is as big as the 744.
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:50 pm

PW100 wrote:
It seems to me that SQ is playing hardball in the lease extension negotiation game. Otherwise their decision would already have been made, and there would be no need to drag this on for so long.


It is interesting that the negotiations are dragging out for so long, but to me the bottom line is that they do it because it is to their benefit to drag things out in a poor resale environment.

I think that for many reasons (they traditionally don't renew leases, they already have five new frames coming, they are in the midst of a huge capital spend on A350/787, they are seeing a lot of increased competition that requires them to switch assets over to Scoot etc) that they aren't likely to renew, and the only way they would renew is if they got 'fire sale' pricing.

I think they realize that someone will be getting these frames dirt cheap and it might as well be them, but if the lessor doesn't want to set a bad precedent on a cheap renewal and doesn't give a great price they'll walk away.

And of course you get your best price in a sinking market on the 'last and final offer' so SQ is just going to wait things out.
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Beatyair
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:34 pm

Well we have seen how the used A380 market has gone with Malaysia airlines.
At least these are leased.
The A380 is a bird that is limited to airports that can serve it, where most international airports can take a 777. Airlines have more options with 773, 778, 779, 789, 788, 359, 350, and etc.
 
777PHX
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:51 pm

It'll be interesting to see who picks them up on the used market, if anyone. Between SQ and EK, I see many early builds languishing in the desert.
 
travelhound
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:22 pm

The problem is, even with reduced lease rates thy will still be very expensive aircraft to operate.

At the ten year mark SIA would be looking at a cabin refurbishment. This could be a twenty million dollar exercise in itself.

At the twelve year mark the engines will require a substantial overhaul. Again, not an inexpensive exercise.

If SIA choose to keep these aircraft for inter-Asian flying, again there will be substantial expense associated with developing airport facilities, purchasing ground equipment to handle the aircraft.

.....and of course like any aircraft they have to be supported by spares, technical staff and maintenance regimes. The cost to ensure an A380 can be adequately serviced when it goes tech at a secondary airport where SIA is the only operator of the type could be quite substantial.

I see this as a risk and reward equation that just doesn't work..
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:40 pm

travelhound wrote:
At the twelve year mark the engines will require a substantial overhaul. Again, not an inexpensive exercise.


All Trent 900 engines are sold under Rolls-Royce TotalCare so ongoing maintenance and overhaul will be handled under that service contract.
 
Tedd
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:26 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Some people expect SQ as first operator of the A380 will renew their A380 leases automatically, but their EVP is saying (AvWeek, http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 0-decision , paywall) that while they are still suitable for high-density city pairs, “The A380 was conceived when things were much more bullish.”.

I'm not sure if he's saying it was conceived when SQ was more bullish, or Airbus was more bullish, or the entire aviation industry was more bullish, but in any case it's not an endorsement of the A380.

SQ's situation is far more complicated than it was in the 2000s due to a lot of ambitious competitors in their home market.

The article goes on to say that SQ is in the middle of a massive fleet renewal program featuring A350-900/-900ULR and 787-10, and are "keenly following" larger twin offerings from Boeing (777X) and Airbus (A350-2000).

So it'll be interesting to see if SQ's A380s end up on the used market. It seems quite likely some if not all of the early frames will. Then it'll be a matter of deciding how long to keep the A380s in their fleet for those high-density city pairs.


I said it in the beginning, Boeing made the right call and Airbus the wrong call on future planes. The A-380 was designed for a long haul system where people would be funneled in to a few very large hubs to catch their international flights, whereas Boeing designed a plane that could fly non-stop on long thinner routes. Airbus agrees, I believe that Boeing was right, hence the A-350. I do not want to knock the technical advancements of any of the planes. However, the passenger planes future is long haul twins.


Neither Boeing nor Airbus really gambled on either the hub and spoke system or direct flights, hence the line-up 787 - 777 - 747 and A330Neo - A350 - A380. The A380 is a niche plane, but air travel will continue to grow, so perhaps it was too soon. I feel they are drecking out current orders, in order to have a potential A380-900 / A380-850NEO. Remember that the B779 is as big as the 744.


I feel this is correct. Even if there is no improved A380, Airbus will undoubtedly offer a viable alternative to the B779. I don`t think you can
discount the growth in air travel over the next decade that just might make an A380 neo a proposition, & therefore make a decision for
airlines like Singapore that much more difficult.
 
infinit
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:26 am

SQ's SYD, MEL, HKG, NRT, FRA and LHR 380 flights are filled. They definitely dont have any problems filling those birds.

SQ wont be increasing their order but my take is they would maintain their current 380 fleet size but more effecient newer versions for their busiest roues..i can easily think of 10 current 380 routes that will continue to be best-served by it.

texdravid wrote:

Finally, I believe anecdotally that Asians are coming around
To frequency rather than one or two big flights a day between city pairs.


SQ and TG each have 6 flights daily SIN-BKK.. they've timed it so that there's roughly one flight by either carrier each hour. Both carriers use widebodies on all flights. SQ largely uses 330s on the route these days. TG uses 777s. I fly this route very regularly for work and the load factor on my flights on either airline consistently well over-80%.

The 1.5 hour CGK as well where SQ has 8 daily flights, and HKG too. Packed.

I think it has to do with population concentration in Asian market centres being a lot higher than in the West.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:28 am

Revelation wrote:
Some people expect SQ as first operator of the A380 will renew their A380 leases automatically, but their EVP is saying (AvWeek, http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 0-decision , paywall) that while they are still suitable for high-density city pairs, “The A380 was conceived when things were much more bullish.”.

I'm not sure if he's saying it was conceived when SQ was more bullish, or Airbus was more bullish, or the entire aviation industry was more bullish, but in any case it's not an endorsement of the A380.



They say "things", that is everything but mostly the global economy was more bullish. The A380 works when more people are flying and have more money to fly. The Global Financial Crises hit a lot of businesses and economies at a time when everyone was looking forward to a never ending expansion of the global economy. Now you also have the double hit of global political instability and fear of terrorism. The A380 works in it's niche but it does need the right conditions for that niche to grow.
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:51 am

Bald1983 wrote:
I said it in the beginning, Boeing made the right call and Airbus the wrong call on future planes. The A-380 was designed for a long haul system where people would be funneled in to a few very large hubs to catch their international flights, whereas Boeing designed a plane that could fly non-stop on long thinner routes. Airbus agrees, I believe that Boeing was right, hence the A-350. I do not want to knock the technical advancements of any of the planes. However, the passenger planes future is long haul twins.



Please explain the 748 then, if Boeing made the right call. And lets not pretend that the 748 was designed as a freighter as Boeing predicted sales of 2:1 for the passenger version.

Both companies foresaw a market for a VLA, Boeing only had the 748 to bring to the market. At present it is challenging for one and a downright failure for the other. Who knows what it will look like in 15 years time. I will say that EK will be smiling all the way to the bank if other keep cancelling their A380 plans as they will be the only airline that offer the aircraft on some routes and they will use that in their marketing.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:04 am

Tedd wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:

I said it in the beginning, Boeing made the right call and Airbus the wrong call on future planes. The A-380 was designed for a long haul system where people would be funneled in to a few very large hubs to catch their international flights, whereas Boeing designed a plane that could fly non-stop on long thinner routes. Airbus agrees, I believe that Boeing was right, hence the A-350. I do not want to knock the technical advancements of any of the planes. However, the passenger planes future is long haul twins.


Neither Boeing nor Airbus really gambled on either the hub and spoke system or direct flights, hence the line-up 787 - 777 - 747 and A330Neo - A350 - A380. The A380 is a niche plane, but air travel will continue to grow, so perhaps it was too soon. I feel they are drecking out current orders, in order to have a potential A380-900 / A380-850NEO. Remember that the B779 is as big as the 744.


I feel this is correct. Even if there is no improved A380, Airbus will undoubtedly offer a viable alternative to the B779. I don`t think you can
discount the growth in air travel over the next decade that just might make an A380 neo a proposition, & therefore make a decision for
airlines like Singapore that much more difficult.


I feel the decision is not that difficult for SQ, they must do what is in the best interest of their airline, looking at demand etc. For Airbus it is another matter, essentially excepting a loss (making the A380 at a small loss with a low rate production 12/y) for the option to make the A380NEO in the future and recuperate the loss they take now.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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N14AZ
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:07 am

travelhound wrote:
The problem is, even with reduced lease rates thy will still be very expensive aircraft to operate.

At the ten year mark SIA would be looking at a cabin refurbishment. This could be a twenty million dollar exercise in itself.

At the twelve year mark the engines will require a substantial overhaul. Again, not an inexpensive exercise.

Hmm, but all these cost categories (cabin, engines (see also Stich's reply above) apply for every airliner. So why is it a "problem" in case of the A380?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:12 am

I think SQ will always have a need for the A380. Probably less frames than what they have now. They will replace 5 with the 5 on order, beyond that I believe the first 8 were heavier than the rest so I would think as the leases expire on numbers 6-8 they will also be returned and replaced by aircraft like the A350's that are incoming. That would leave a fleet of 16, maybe SQ will return number 9-10 as well which were the last of the first batch. I've no idea how long the leases are.

They could use the remaining 14 on some of the following.

LHR 2-3 daily
FRA daily not sure on the JFK tag particularly once the NYC non stops come back in 2018
CDG daily
ZRH good premium loads?

While SYD is an important route they are now at 5 daily overall, does the A380 need to be used year round? Depends on the F product to be installed on the future A380's? In terms of suites right through from LHR-SYD?

MEL is the Same and is getting the A380 back flights seem full year round so maybe SYD and MEL get a daily rotation each.

AKL is seasonal with good loads I'm not sure it will go year round but I'd imagine the seasonal A380 will continue.

NRT is another, with LAX-NRT going 77W maybe SIN-NRT will go back to an A380?

BOM-DEL plenty of demand could be covered by more flights if not enough A380's.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:19 am

travelhound wrote:
At the ten year mark SIA would be looking at a cabin refurbishment. This could be a twenty million dollar exercise in itself.


The cabin refurbishment would be done during the next heavy maintenance interval, to minimize down time.

Those 5 new A380s on order will come with a new cabin. If SQ extend the leases on the current fleet, cabin refurbishment of the current A380 fleet would be the next logical step IMO.
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travelhound
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:30 am

N14AZ wrote:
travelhound wrote:
The problem is, even with reduced lease rates thy will still be very expensive aircraft to operate.

At the ten year mark SIA would be looking at a cabin refurbishment. This could be a twenty million dollar exercise in itself.

At the twelve year mark the engines will require a substantial overhaul. Again, not an inexpensive exercise.

Hmm, but all these cost categories (cabin, engines (see also Stich's reply above) apply for every airliner. So why is it a "problem" in case of the A380?


It's a problem for the A380 as the cost to refurbish an existing aircraft with new interiors is a lot more substantial than fitting new interiors to an aircraft on the production line.

For example a simple wiring loom to service the seats of the new interiors would need to be certified, installed, rectified in a bespoke manner which could make the cost of the item 3-4 higher than a wiring loom installed on the production line. We also have to remember the airlines would be still leasing the aircraft during the refurb process, which could be a three month process.

All of these factors can add up to a substantial amount of money. I have always used the rule the cost of capital expenditure has an equal or greater overhead cost associated with it. There are costs over and above the actual cost of the aircraft that have to be considered.
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:13 am

Its confirmed that the first whalejet will leave the fleet next year whilst the other four of the first five's fates are still up in the air.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/singapore-a ... 1473838384
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transpo ... -next-year
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:47 am

neutrino wrote:
Its confirmed that the first whalejet will leave the fleet next year whilst the other four of the first five's fates are still up in the air.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/singapore-a ... 1473838384
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transpo ... -next-year

Thanks for the update.

Does this retirement next year fit to the delivery of the next two new SQ-A380s? I already checked the production list but somehow didn't find when SQ will get the first A380s out of their last 5-airframes-order.
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:48 am

No surprise. Like most airlines from Asia they hoped to use them for offering 1-stop connections between Europe and Asia/Australia, but this market has basically gone to the ME3.
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 10:04 am

N14AZ wrote:
Thanks for the update.
Does this retirement next year fit to the delivery of the next two new SQ-A380s? I already checked the production list but somehow didn't find when SQ will get the first A380s out of their last 5-airframes-order.

My pleasure.
According to Wiki (take it what you will), the five will be delivered from next year onward: "In 2012, Singapore Airlines agreed to order five more A380s, to be delivered from 2017.[33] They will feature new Suites, Business Class and Economy cabins, as well as Premium Economy seats which are already being rolled out on existing A380s.[34]".
If reliable, it probably means the replacement is like baton handover.
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:19 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Does this retirement next year fit to the delivery of the next two new SQ-A380s? I already checked the production list but somehow didn't find when SQ will get the first A380s out of their last 5-airframes-order.


The next 5 to be delivered are MSN 243, 247, 251, 253 and 255. All to be delivered with a new/updated cabin; first delivery next year. So I'm guessing this will be a 1-1 replacement.
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JeremyB
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:42 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Does this retirement next year fit to the delivery of the next two new SQ-A380s? I already checked the production list but somehow didn't find when SQ will get the first A380s out of their last 5-airframes-order.


The next 5 to be delivered are MSN 243, 247, 251, 253 and 255. All to be delivered with a new/updated cabin; first delivery next year. So I'm guessing this will be a 1-1 replacement.


It should be, but Singapore currently only says that SKA will be replaced. Decision for the others will be made at a later date.
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:02 pm

Why is it a blow (or "major blow", as per Aviation Daily) to Airbus if the lease of an aircraft is not extended and the aircraft is instead replaced by a new built of the same type? In my view it would rather be a blow to Airbus if they extended the lease and cancelled the frames on order. What am I getting wrong?
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:05 pm

Unflug wrote:
Why is it a blow (or "major blow", as per Aviation Daily) to Airbus if the lease of an aircraft is not extended and the aircraft is instead replaced by a new built of the same type? In my view it would rather be a blow to Airbus if they extended the lease and cancelled the frames on order. What am I getting wrong?


Because the media believes SQ is shrinking their A380 fleet but forgets that the airline has additional A380s incoming.
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ILNFlyer
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:07 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Some people expect SQ as first operator of the A380 will renew their A380 leases automatically, but their EVP is saying (AvWeek, http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 0-decision , paywall) that while they are still suitable for high-density city pairs, “The A380 was conceived when things were much more bullish.”.

I'm not sure if he's saying it was conceived when SQ was more bullish, or Airbus was more bullish, or the entire aviation industry was more bullish, but in any case it's not an endorsement of the A380.

SQ's situation is far more complicated than it was in the 2000s due to a lot of ambitious competitors in their home market.

The article goes on to say that SQ is in the middle of a massive fleet renewal program featuring A350-900/-900ULR and 787-10, and are "keenly following" larger twin offerings from Boeing (777X) and Airbus (A350-2000).

So it'll be interesting to see if SQ's A380s end up on the used market. It seems quite likely some if not all of the early frames will. Then it'll be a matter of deciding how long to keep the A380s in their fleet for those high-density city pairs.


I said it in the beginning, Boeing made the right call and Airbus the wrong call on future planes. The A-380 was designed for a long haul system where people would be funneled in to a few very large hubs to catch their international flights, whereas Boeing designed a plane that could fly non-stop on long thinner routes. Airbus agrees, I believe that Boeing was right, hence the A-350. I do not want to knock the technical advancements of any of the planes. However, the passenger planes future is long haul twins.


I agree. Sometimes you guess right, and sometimes you guess wrong.....and this time it worked to Boeings favor. A great example of the inverse of this is Boeing letting the MOM market go to Airbus by not answering the A321 in a timely fashion.
 
travelhound
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:37 pm

This could be Singapore Airlines simply mitigating risk!

If we consider the number of A350's SQ will receive over the next three years, the age and replacement cycle of other aircraft in their current fleet and the simple fact growth in long haul international markets could be flat for the next 2-3 years, it is probably prudent to remove these aircraft from the fleet.

lf we also consider the A350 is a "game changer", focusing on introducing this aircraft into the fleet and the opportunities associated with new markets, keeping old A380's could simply be a distraction.
 
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:53 pm

Unflug wrote:
Why is it a blow (or "major blow", as per Aviation Daily) to Airbus if the lease of an aircraft is not extended and the aircraft is instead replaced by a new built of the same type? In my view it would rather be a blow to Airbus if they extended the lease and cancelled the frames on order. What am I getting wrong?


I suppose it depends on perspective. If you still think of the A380 in the way it was originally conceived, this can be seen as a major blow.

The AvWeek article ( http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... a380-lease ) says:

The decision is a major blow for Airbus, which has been desperately trying to promote the aircraft. The SIA move sends a highly unwelcome signal to the market: one of the world’s most famous airlines has doubts about the aircraft’s viability in its network.


On the other hand, if you take into account the way the program has been progressing of late, I think it's just one more setback in a pretty long line of setbacks.

The A380 optimists (and we've had a lot of them here, up till recent times) would have thought SQ's network would have supported keeping the original A380s in SQ's service, and given the cost of reconfiguring them and their lower desirability, would have hoped SQ and the lessor could have struck a deal. Perhaps not reaching a deal on the first frame is SQ's way of exerting leverage on frames 2-5.

The Bloomberg article ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -next-year ) seems to be emphasizing that the big issue is that this will be the first used A380 frame being put onto the market. The financial community seems to be afraid of what will happen when the market sets the price on the first used A380.
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:01 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Some people expect SQ as first operator of the A380 will renew their A380 leases automatically, but their EVP is saying (AvWeek, http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 0-decision , paywall) that while they are still suitable for high-density city pairs, “The A380 was conceived when things were much more bullish.”.

I'm not sure if he's saying it was conceived when SQ was more bullish, or Airbus was more bullish, or the entire aviation industry was more bullish, but in any case it's not an endorsement of the A380.

SQ's situation is far more complicated than it was in the 2000s due to a lot of ambitious competitors in their home market.

The article goes on to say that SQ is in the middle of a massive fleet renewal program featuring A350-900/-900ULR and 787-10, and are "keenly following" larger twin offerings from Boeing (777X) and Airbus (A350-2000).

So it'll be interesting to see if SQ's A380s end up on the used market. It seems quite likely some if not all of the early frames will. Then it'll be a matter of deciding how long to keep the A380s in their fleet for those high-density city pairs.


I said it in the beginning, Boeing made the right call and Airbus the wrong call on future planes. The A-380 was designed for a long haul system where people would be funneled in to a few very large hubs to catch their international flights, whereas Boeing designed a plane that could fly non-stop on long thinner routes. Airbus agrees, I believe that Boeing was right, hence the A-350. I do not want to knock the technical advancements of any of the planes. However, the passenger planes future is long haul twins.


I agree. Sometimes you guess right, and sometimes you guess wrong.....and this time it worked to Boeings favor. A great example of the inverse of this is Boeing letting the MOM market go to Airbus by not answering the A321 in a timely fashion.


Well, Boeing did develop the B748i/F so neither Boeing or Airbus did really bet on either big or direct. In the end the marked did decide.
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:20 pm

travelhound wrote:
This could be Singapore Airlines simply mitigating risk!

If we consider the number of A350's SQ will receive over the next three years, the age and replacement cycle of other aircraft in their current fleet and the simple fact growth in long haul international markets could be flat for the next 2-3 years, it is probably prudent to remove these aircraft from the fleet.

lf we also consider the A350 is a "game changer", focusing on introducing this aircraft into the fleet and the opportunities associated with new markets, keeping old A380's could simply be a distraction.


Not sure I agree. The big 'game changer' was supposed to be the A380, and SQ launched the frame with much fanfare. The A350 really shouldn't be seen as a 'game changer' for an airline that is already a large A380 and 77W operator. If the way the game is changing for SQ is away from its well-known, high-luxury product on the A380 to having to use smaller aircraft to cast about for business from new markets, I don't think the game is changing in a way that is favorable to SQ.

To me the message being sent is that the only one who can use A380s in large numbers profitably is EK, and they've used their ultra-efficient operation to squeeze out all the traditional kangaroo route competitors such as SQ, to the point that the A380 program itself is in deep trouble.

Dutchy wrote:
Well, Boeing did develop the B748i/F so neither Boeing or Airbus did really bet on either big or direct. In the end the marked did decide.


Fortunately for Boeing, they did not bet as much as Airbus did (said to be $28B). Their main downfall has been that surface shippers have become much more efficient and all the new large twins in service means there's lots of cheap belly space available so the air freight market has stagnated. I guess it's a good thing for Airbus that they took the A380F off the market, because it's hard to see how they would have sold more than the original batch.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:43 pm

"Singapore Airlines Drops Airbus A380 Plane" is the headline across the bottom of the screen on BBC News. Seems misleading after reading this thread.

Bald1983 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Some people expect SQ as first operator of the A380 will renew their A380 leases automatically, but their EVP is saying (AvWeek, http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 0-decision , paywall) that while they are still suitable for high-density city pairs, “The A380 was conceived when things were much more bullish.”.

I'm not sure if he's saying it was conceived when SQ was more bullish, or Airbus was more bullish, or the entire aviation industry was more bullish, but in any case it's not an endorsement of the A380.

SQ's situation is far more complicated than it was in the 2000s due to a lot of ambitious competitors in their home market.

The article goes on to say that SQ is in the middle of a massive fleet renewal program featuring A350-900/-900ULR and 787-10, and are "keenly following" larger twin offerings from Boeing (777X) and Airbus (A350-2000).

So it'll be interesting to see if SQ's A380s end up on the used market. It seems quite likely some if not all of the early frames will. Then it'll be a matter of deciding how long to keep the A380s in their fleet for those high-density city pairs.


I said it in the beginning, Boeing made the right call and Airbus the wrong call on future planes. The A-380 was designed for a long haul system where people would be funneled in to a few very large hubs to catch their international flights, whereas Boeing designed a plane that could fly non-stop on long thinner routes. Airbus agrees, I believe that Boeing was right, hence the A-350. I do not want to knock the technical advancements of any of the planes. However, the passenger planes future is long haul twins.


You "said it in the beginning"?

Your profile says you joined 3 months ago...
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:47 pm

777Jet wrote:
"Singapore Airlines Drops Airbus A380 Plane" is the headline across the bottom of the screen on BBC News. Seems misleading after reading this thread.


Yep, a lot of misleading titles in the media. As mentioned above, SQ are still getting new build A380s.
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:06 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
777Jet wrote:
"Singapore Airlines Drops Airbus A380 Plane" is the headline across the bottom of the screen on BBC News. Seems misleading after reading this thread.


Yep, a lot of misleading titles in the media. As mentioned above, SQ are still getting new build A380s.


Indeed. My wife buzzed me today since this made the news in Singapore in similar fashion to the BBC.

This happens all the time where the A380 is concerned - everything's either "Wow! It's the biggest plane in the woorrrllllddd!!!!1!!!" or (more usually) "doom! Dooom! DDOOOOMMMM!!!".

Wish we could collectively give the journalists a slap and make them immediately print/broadcast a correction, sometimes...

I'm sure some of them are reading these forums - actually, that might explain the "DDOOOOMMMM!!" stories, considering a typical A.net thread. ;)
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Polot
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:26 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
777Jet wrote:
"Singapore Airlines Drops Airbus A380 Plane" is the headline across the bottom of the screen on BBC News. Seems misleading after reading this thread.


Yep, a lot of misleading titles in the media. As mentioned above, SQ are still getting new build A380s.


Indeed. My wife buzzed me today since this made the news in Singapore in similar fashion to the BBC.

This happens all the time where the A380 is concerned - everything's either "Wow! It's the biggest plane in the woorrrllllddd!!!!1!!!" or (more usually) "doom! Dooom! DDOOOOMMMM!!!".

Wish we could collectively give the journalists a slap and make them immediately print/broadcast a correction, sometimes...

I'm sure some of them are reading these forums - actually, that might explain the "DDOOOOMMMM!!" stories, considering a typical A.net thread. ;)


While true, the airline does take some of the blame. They are partially responsible in framing the story- SQ could have done a better job making it clear to the media that the plane will be replaced by a new A380. Tell the story yourself, don't let the journalist do it for you.
 
olympic472
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:08 pm

Current market conditions can support the A380 till 2030 (my guess 10 years after the last 5 arrives). The SQ fleet may be reduced but we will see it on the high density routes. Although not as common as the 747-400 during its heydays, I will be happy to see them around till then.

Interesting to note that with fuel prices at a low the airline is still not optimistic.

The jet may be large but I still get the same real estate on board; and there are no differentiating amenities. My preference is always for frequency and speed.
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nry
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:24 pm

Polot wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
While true, the airline does take some of the blame. They are partially responsible in framing the story- SQ could have done a better job making it clear to the media that the plane will be replaced by a new A380. Tell the story yourself, don't let the journalist do it for you.


Blame? SQ shouldn't care. It's not their issue how this decision is couched. In fact, this interpretation is probably in their best interest to put more pressure on Airbus in future negotiations.
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:44 pm

It will be fascinating now to see the fate of MSN3 aka 9V-SKA. Could Airbus take it back for R&D analysis to see what 10 or so years of service life does to an early A380 frame ?
 
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Matt6461
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Re: SQ A380 Decision Based On Demand

Wed Sep 14, 2016 7:51 pm

CAPA predicted this outcome about a year ago:

The theoretical argument was that it could have been cheaper for a lessor to give SIA an exceptional deal on renewing its A380 leases rather than placing the A380s with another customer. A discount would need to be weighed with the cost of updating the product on these A380s, which are becoming aged, and if there were suitable markets for the type to fly on. Liberalisation – to China, India and fifth freedoms to access North America – have not occurred as fast as hoped. But again, SIA does not believe this batch of A380s will be viable to continue operating.


http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/a ... els-249033

Unflug wrote:
Why is it a blow (or "major blow", as per Aviation Daily) to Airbus if the lease of an aircraft is not extended and the aircraft is instead replaced by a new built of the same type? In my view it would rather be a blow to Airbus if they extended the lease and cancelled the frames on order. What am I getting wrong?


Two reasons:
1. The move means the A380 will be a shrinking portion of SQ's fleet overall, especially when Scoot is included. To point to the same number of A380's, while ignoring the "denominator" of SQ's fleet is to make an error. The move shows that SQ, like all airlines but EK, is moving away from A380 as portion of its overall strategy.

2. 10 years is an early retirement, even for SQ. Many 777's at SQ are well over 10 years old.

This isn't a "major blow," just one of a series of moves that reflect the A380's low market appeal.

Revelation wrote:
The A380 optimists (and we've had a lot of them here, up till recent times)


Odd how we could expect certain folks to chime in once, minimizing any bad A380 news and decrying its carriers as ignorant partisans. Have they given up?

Revelation wrote:
The financial community seems to be afraid of what will happen when the market sets the price on the first used A380.


Indeed. Will be interesting to see what lease terms end up being. The economics of a free A380 are too good to pass up, IMJ, so we'll see some uptake. At what price though?

BA could get a used A380 for south of $1m/month. That would be an attractive deal for a few of the world's hub operators. Maybe even ANA will fill out its small subfleet with some cheap frames for ultra-dense routes.

Poor Amedeo and their attempts to lease out sticker-price A380's. I wonder: If we look at their recent year filings, are they still even trying to market their frames? I.e. do they have travel and marketing expenses? A few years ago they were jetting around making hard pitches; haven't heard anything from them recently.

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