Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
787fan8
Topic Author
Posts: 517
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 8:05 pm

Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:13 pm

Upon delivery, what routes could we see Delta deploy their 787-8's on?
Atlanta is an incredibly cool city - Andrew Lincoln

Future Auburn graduate
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2171
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:16 pm

Hasn't Delta differed the 787 order further? I would think the 787's might eventually begin replacing the 767-300ER's but not for a while as Delta invested millions to update and upgrade the fleet to extend the service life.
 
User avatar
tjwgrr
Posts: 2518
Joined: Fri Mar 24, 2000 4:09 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:47 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Hasn't Delta differed the 787 order further? I would think the 787's might eventually begin replacing the 767-300ER's but not for a while as Delta invested millions to update and upgrade the fleet to extend the service life.


Delta has deferred deliveries of the 787 to at least 2020, orders which they inherited from NWA. Probably a little premature to talk about routes.
Direct KNOBS, maintain 2700' until established on the localizer, cleared ILS runway 26 left approach.
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4344
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:44 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Hasn't Delta differed the 787 order further? I would think the 787's might eventually begin replacing the 767-300ER's but not for a while as Delta invested millions to update and upgrade the fleet to extend the service life.


Delta has deferred deliveries of the 787 to at least 2020, orders which they inherited from NWA. Probably a little premature to talk about routes.


Yes it sounds as if Delta doesn't even know what routes they would want to even use them on.
 
User avatar
flymco753
Posts: 3413
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:56 pm

I know the order has been deferred until 2020, right now I guess the dilemma is where are the 787's going to go? The A350 and 330NEO's are going to help maintain and build on the international footprint so maybe the 787 will be placed on Europe routes to replace the 76L.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10910
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:02 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I know the order has been deferred until 2020, right now I guess the dilemma is where are the 787's going to go? The A350 and 330NEO's are going to help maintain and build on the international footprint so maybe the 787 will be placed on Europe routes to replace the 76L.


That is exactly what they'll do if DL takes the 18 787-8 as ordered. DL has 25 A359s and 25 A339s on order. They have ~60 763ERs with 70+ less seats than those two planes, plus 21 764s with ~30+ less seats. Not every 767 routes can likely support that capacity increase.


DL is eventually going to need to order more of something smaller to replace some of the 767s, or take delivery of the 788s, especially as the A359/A339s will also help be soaking up 744 capacity they need to replace and I'm sure DL would like to slowly expand too.
 
User avatar
flymco753
Posts: 3413
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:14 pm

Polot wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I know the order has been deferred until 2020, right now I guess the dilemma is where are the 787's going to go? The A350 and 330NEO's are going to help maintain and build on the international footprint so maybe the 787 will be placed on Europe routes to replace the 76L.


That is exactly what they'll do if DL takes the 18 787-8 as ordered. DL has 25 A359s and 25 A339s on order. They have ~60 763ERs with 70+ less seats than those two planes, plus 21 764s with ~30+ less seats. Not every 767 routes can likely support that capacity increase.


DL is eventually going to need to order more of something smaller to replace some of the 767s, or take delivery of the 788s, especially as the A359/A339s will also help be soaking up 744 capacity they need to replace and I'm sure DL would like to slowly expand too.


I'm unsure whether the 788 order has an option, because in that case they could probably grab a few more 787's and be set. If I remember correctly DL is looking into purchasing some older 777's, I don't know if this still is in the plans or not but it would mean unecessary capacity boosts to some destinations. Routes like DTW-CDG or AMS have been operated on the 777 so that would work but some wouldn't.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
amdiesen
Posts: 149
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:27 pm

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:45 pm

hypothesis:
1). Delta has no intention of purchasing the 788
2). Delta is optimistic about the 787-10 but would like to collect real-time reliability data and actual performance based observing real-time use by other airlines
3). The evolving relationship issues; growing positive relationship w/Airbus, and the souring relationship w/Boeing have affected the original order and intent. One result is the 10+25+25 wide-body airbus orders and how it impacts the productive use of a 78x.
4). The 772-ER is becoming a less productive long haul solution

hypothetical conclusion: (most probable, assume general thesis correct, variability on details)
-Delta orders 8 787-10s to replace the 772-ERs on their ~24 year 'D' check in the 2023 time frame.
-Delta retires the 772-ERs or retools them for high density domestic use.

hypothetical conclusion: (higher variability, projects high probability outcomes)
-Delta converts the remaining 10 788 orders to the 778
-Delta re-negotiates the remainder (or full) order to aggressively participate in Boeing's mid 202x MOM offering.
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
User avatar
coronado
Posts: 1278
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 1999 9:42 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:08 pm

From Delta 10K annual report at 31Dec2015: ''Our purchase commitment for the 18 B-787-8 aircraft provides for certain aircraft substitution rights, including for our current
orders of B-737-900ER aircraft.''
I do not expect to see these 788 ever operate for Delta. I think they are cancelled in all but fact. The above statement basically means Delta has in fact done so but might as well not write it up as a cancellation and cause bad publicity for Boeing. It is much more likely that Delta will wait to see what Boeing launches along the MOM lines as a true 767 replacement (Delta as launch customer anyone?) for their transatlantic routes
Delta is more likely to announce an order for 10 or 787-9 or more likely a 787-10 order and then be able to use their usual aggressive negotiation tactics on getting substantial discounts on 787-9 or 787-10 versus taking on more A350's.
The Original Coronado: First CV jet flights RG CV 990 July 1965; DL CV 880 July 1965; Spantax CV990 Feb 1973
 
DTWPurserBoy
Posts: 2374
Joined: Fri Feb 19, 2010 10:33 pm

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:21 pm

Both Richard Anderson and Ed Bastian have repeatedly said that they see a place in the Delta fleet for the 787. They bought one 777 for parts (and a former Korean 744 for the same purpose.) IMHO they will watch the development of the 787-10 and if they like the numbers (and the price) they will jump. Otherwise I see them adding more A339's and A350's to the fleet. Maybe they will be able to pry the 767-400's out of UAL's hands.
Qualified on Concorde/B707/B720/B727/B737/B747/B757/B767/B777/DC-8/DC-9/DC-10/A319/A320/A330/MD-88-90
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4854
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:49 pm

Delta ain't getting this plane for a while

I would think SLC-NRT is a prime Candidate , the route did decent, Delta just doesnt have the right plane for the route. The 787 is the plane for this route. MSP-NRT, and some SEA-Asia i bet we see roll over to the 787. Its gonna be quite a while before Delta needs to think about its 787 routes at this point
 
B757Forever
Posts: 890
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 3:23 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:57 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Hasn't Delta differed the 787 order further? I would think the 787's might eventually begin replacing the 767-300ER's but not for a while as Delta invested millions to update and upgrade the fleet to extend the service life.


Agreed. The original 767-300ERs that DL bought, ships 171-186 are getting up there in age. The last time I looked, ship 171 had well over 110,000 hours on it though the cycles were around 15K. As well as the 767 fleet has aged, they will be prime for replacement in the 2020 time frame when they reach 30 years of service. The 787 would be the perfect 767 replacement at DL.
The Rolls Royce Dart. Noise = Shaft Horsepower.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6607
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:15 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Hasn't Delta differed the 787 order further?


No. They deferred the order just once, in 2010. That was at the height of both the 787 program's troubles and the industry's belt-tightening in response to the financial crisis. Since then, the 787s have been scheduled for delivery from 2020-2022 and have not been further deferred. Delta has had at least two chances to convert or cancel the 787 order since then (the two 737-900ER orders) and has not done so. That said, Delta still has more than a year to take final action.

amdiesen wrote:
hypothesis:
1). Delta has no intention of purchasing the 788


I don't think Delta's actions (specifically, not converting the 788s into 739s, and ordering only larger widebodies since) are consistent with this.

3). The evolving relationship issues; growing positive relationship w/Airbus, and the souring relationship w/Boeing


Evidence? Airbus won a few aircraft orders. One of them was a large widebody order. Boeing has also won a couple of orders from Delta in the same timeframe, albeit all for narrowbodies I see zero evidence of a "souring relationship with Boeing."
.
Delta converts the remaining 10 788 orders to the 778


I don't see Delta as a plausible 778 customer. Their use of the 77L is more about field capacity and long-range cargo uplift than pure range. The 359 will be an excellent and much-lower-cost replacement for their 77L, the way they use it.

I see two scenarios for the 788 order:

1) Delta takes the 788s on time and uses them on the least dense TATL and short TPAC routes, as pure 763 replacements. Or:

2) Delta converts the 788s to 787-10s in a scenario of high TATL capacity growth.

Based on recent world economic performance I think 1) is more likely, and I'd bet a few bucks on Delta taking its first 788 on schedule in 2020. Or maybe even earlier if other customers want to give up slots.
 
User avatar
piedmontf284000
Posts: 470
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:00 pm

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:27 pm

coronado wrote:
From Delta 10K annual report at 31Dec2015: ''Our purchase commitment for the 18 B-787-8 aircraft provides for certain aircraft substitution rights, including for our current
orders of B-737-900ER aircraft.''
I do not expect to see these 788 ever operate for Delta. I think they are cancelled in all but fact. The above statement basically means Delta has in fact done so but might as well not write it up as a cancellation and cause bad publicity for Boeing. It is much more likely that Delta will wait to see what Boeing launches along the MOM lines as a true 767 replacement (Delta as launch customer anyone?) for their transatlantic routes
Delta is more likely to announce an order for 10 or 787-9 or more likely a 787-10 order and then be able to use their usual aggressive negotiation tactics on getting substantial discounts on 787-9 or 787-10 versus taking on more A350's.



Well said. I concur.

Delta will most likely never operate the 787. I think the A330 has become their replacement of choice for the 767 while the A359 and A359J will be their replacement of choice for the 747 and 777.

Delta will use the deferrals to wait for Boeing's MOM, which should at least be on paper by 2019, and then use the purchase commitment for the 787 for that or the 737MAX.
 
User avatar
readytotaxi
Posts: 7534
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:35 pm

Are Delta the largest operator of 767's? I see that they have 93 listed. http://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US/ ... fleet.html
And the 300's avg 24.5 yrs old (nothing wrong with an old bird)
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
lavalampluva
Posts: 1433
Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:08 pm

B757Forever wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Hasn't Delta differed the 787 order further? I would think the 787's might eventually begin replacing the 767-300ER's but not for a while as Delta invested millions to update and upgrade the fleet to extend the service life.


Agreed. The original 767-300ERs that DL bought, ships 171-186 are getting up there in age. The last time I looked, ship 171 had well over 110,000 hours on it though the cycles were around 15K. As well as the 767 fleet has aged, they will be prime for replacement in the 2020 time frame when they reach 30 years of service. The 787 would be the perfect 767 replacement at DL.


A330-9 is being replacing the B767-3, and the A350-9 is replacing the B747-4. Not sure what their plan is for the 787-8. Maybe they will throw them into the mix between the A330-9 and A350-9.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6607
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:17 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
A330-9 is being replacing the B767-3, and the A350-9 is replacing the B747-4. Not sure what their plan is for the 787-8. Maybe they will throw them into the mix between the A330-9 and A350-9.


It's not that simple. These are not one-for-one replacements. The 359 + 339 order, together with the earlier HGW 333 order being delivered right now, are all replacing 744 capacity to some extent. Delta is not yet showing us how and when it will replace the 763 capacity, probably because it doesn't have to decide quite yet. Some of the 763s will need to retire within the next five years or so, but others could keep flying for a very long time. The 339s might be straight 763 replacements, or might allow the 763s and/or current 332s/333s to open new growth routes/frequencies. It will depend on overall market demand.

The 788s fit into the mix the same way. If Delta is just going to replace 763 capacity straight out, they have just about enough lift to do so between the 788 and 339 orders. But they could also choose to grow, either by continuing some of the 763s in service or by ordering more 339s or 787s.
 
hkcanadaexpat
Posts: 4086
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:33 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:03 pm

Correct... We have 25x A339s coming in starting in 2019. We know for sure that the oldest 19x 763ERs are going out as a result (13x PW 171-184 + 6x GE ex-Gulf 150-56). That leaves 6x A339s either for growth or to keep replacing other frames (e.g. if additional 763ERs move to domestic flying) or to be deferred until the next batch of 763ERs (185-199) is ready to go...

And yes we all know that the A339s have more seats that the B763ERs they replace so it won't be one for one replacement on routes necessarily. Delta will likely use the A339s on transatlantic routes that could use capacity expansion without adding flights with the 763ERs to remain on smaller pax volume routes.

A
 
EddieDude
Posts: 7048
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2003 10:19 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:05 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
A330-9 is being replacing the B767-3, and the A350-9 is replacing the B747-4. Not sure what their plan is for the 787-8. Maybe they will throw them into the mix between the A330-9 and A350-9.

As seabosdca mentioned, it is not so straightforward. DL wants to use the A359XWB mostly as the workhorse for Asian routes. They will be deployed from SEA and DTW (but also from other hubs) to perform many of the missions to Asia. On the other hand, the A339NEO is going to be carrying out trans-Atlantic service mostly. This has been explained by DL on the press released published at the time of the order. I think this is obviously not a blanket or universal plan that is not subject to tweaks. There will be European destinations where the 763s and 752s will soldier on for a while due to the fact that they are thinner routes where A339 capacity is too much. The A339 might also have some missions to Asia (e.g., maybe some frequencies from SEA to Korea or Japan, which are perfectly within the range of the A339). DL is certainly not done ordering long-haul aircraft. DL will eventually have to replace the 764s, the 77Ls and 77Es. DL will also need to choose the right planes for South America, JNB, TLV, SYD. I think there is room for Dreamliners in the fleet (-8s and perhaps -9s), especially because the A339 might be too big for certain routes, but I think DL will take a very disciplined approach to future orders and will definitely have Airbus and Boeing make the very best proposals they can make for those future orders. In this sense, the A338NEO might also have a shot at joining DL's fleet.
Upcoming flights:
April/May: AM MEX-SCL 788 (J), AM EZE-MEX 789 (J).
 
bigbird
Posts: 365
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:38 pm

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:08 pm

How many A359s is DL slated to delivery of next year?
bigbird from georgia
 
hkcanadaexpat
Posts: 4086
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:33 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:45 pm

bigbird wrote:
How many A359s is DL slated to delivery of next year?
6x 2017 + 5x 2018
 
ehaase
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:06 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:28 pm

A Delta employee who is a prominent poster here has said there is talk of replacing the 787-8 order with a 737-8Max order (I guess eventually to replace A320). Many of Delta's 767-300ER's appear to be around the same age as the 767-400ER and may have many years of service left. I could see Delta having a huge order in about 10 years to replace the remaining 767-300ER, the 767-400ER, and the 777-200ER. I could also see Delta purchasing 321neoLR's to replace the international 757's someday.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5365
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

Re: Delta 787 Routes

Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:38 am

coronado wrote:
From Delta 10K annual report at 31Dec2015: ''Our purchase commitment for the 18 B-787-8 aircraft provides for certain aircraft substitution rights, including for our current
orders of B-737-900ER aircraft.''
I do not expect to see these 788 ever operate for Delta. I think they are cancelled in all but fact. The above statement basically means Delta has in fact done so but might as well not write it up as a cancellation and cause bad publicity for Boeing. It is much more likely that Delta will wait to see what Boeing launches along the MOM lines as a true 767 replacement (Delta as launch customer anyone?) for their transatlantic routes
Delta is more likely to announce an order for 10 or 787-9 or more likely a 787-10 order and then be able to use their usual aggressive negotiation tactics on getting substantial discounts on 787-9 or 787-10 versus taking on more A350's.

no it doesn't. not even close.

it means that for an airline that is very disciplined with capacity they are showing investors that they have ways to keep that going in the future.

If Ed is serious about getting DL closer to 50/50 on domestic/international then he will need more wide bodies. The 787s are going to be flex capacity. If they wanna grow they can, if they feel the international economy still isn't ready for big growth then they can move to orders for more narrow bodies
piedmontf284000 wrote:


Well said. I concur.

Delta will most likely never operate the 787. I think the A330 has become their replacement of choice for the 767 while the A359 and A359J will be their replacement of choice for the 747 and 777.

Delta will use the deferrals to wait for Boeing's MOM, which should at least be on paper by 2019, and then use the purchase commitment for the 787 for that or the 737MAX.

basically zero chance that happens. DL's wide body fleet is too large for it to go to one OEM. Same for AA and UA

amdiesen wrote:
3). The evolving relationship issues; growing positive relationship w/Airbus, and the souring relationship w/Boeing have affected the original order and intent. One result is the 10+25+25 wide-body airbus orders and how it impacts the productive use of a 78x.

No truth to this at all. If DL and Boeing had a bad relationship they wouldn't have order 140 737s, worked out a lease/purchase deal for the 717s and bought the E90s.
Even with all the Airbus order, DL has still ordered more Boeings.

Boeing has won some bids and lost some bids. Very likely they will keep winning some and losing some. Same for Airbus.

amdiesen wrote:
-Delta orders 8 787-10s to replace the 772-ERs on their ~24 year 'D' check in the 2023 time frame.
.

first the 78J doesn't have the legs to replace the 777 at DL. Second why would DL order a sub fleet of 8 airplanes when the 359 will already be in the fleet and be a much better replacement for the 777?

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos