ericm2031 wrote:

Considering WN hasn't even merged systems yet, I'm not sure how comparing it to AA/TWA and AA/US is relevant. And I don't really think their res migration is merger driven either. This would have happened regardless of the FL merger. The merging of those 2 RES systems actually went very well.

And it hasn't been mentioned yet, but WN is running 2 separate RES systems currently. One for domestic and one for international. So you could look at it in a way that they went from 3 systems (when factoring in FL) and are going to 1 completely brand new system. That is a very large undertaking.

Okay, so let's set aside comparisons to merger-driven res migrations, and let's compare instead to "very large" IT/res-related "undertaking[s]." By that standard, too, I think it's fair to say that Southwest's performance doesn't exactly compare favorably - in terms of not just the smoothness (or lack thereof) but also the duration. Indeed, I think that's precisely the point that many of us have been making - not only should Southwest have handled this IT "undertaking" better, but Southwest should have started it - and completed it - far, far earlier. The fact that in 2016 Southwest is running two (maybe three) separate IT systems in order to facilitate international operations is indicative, to me, of how late Southwest was in recognizing how tapped out the domestic market was for organic growth.

Varsity1 wrote:

Since inception they are the most profitable airline (roc and irr).

Measured how? Certainly not by margin, or gross profit...

winginit wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

Since inception they are the most profitable airline (roc and irr).

Measured how? Certainly not by margin, or gross profit...

Did you read the post? Roc and IRR.

Varsity1 wrote:

winginit wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

Since inception they are the most profitable airline (roc and irr).

Measured how? Certainly not by margin, or gross profit...

Did you read the post? Roc and IRR.

Which are two terrible metrics. ROIC can be manipulated with share buybacks and debt issues. IRR is the shittiest, most meaningless financial metric ever invented by men due to the impossible assumption that all proceeds can be reinvested at the IRR and the fact that it does not take into consideration the cost of capital (i.e. risks). I don't see you investing your life savings in a biotech start up with 3000% IRR.

klkla wrote:

usflyguy wrote:

piedmontf284000 wrote:

The Herb Kelleher days are a very distant memory....

Except this IT debacle is what Herb built... this is all his. By being thrifty and pinching pennies instead of upgrading over 30 years, this is the final result.

How long as Kelly been in charge? How long has it been since Kelleher gave up day-to-day control? I think Kelly has had enough time in the job that he can be held responsible for this issue.

. And Herb wouldnt have done any better. The man has been gone for 10 years. The same thing would have happened but with wild turkey in his hand.

enilria wrote:

jetmatt777 wrote:

Is it possible to build new IT from scratch and once it is ready, have a reservation cutoff date? For example any attempted reservation after March 1 would go into the new system, and anything prior to that would be booked in the old system.

That's exactly what they are planning. The issue isn't Altea. The problem is whether all the backend system that depend on the legacy WN RES system will work after cutover. BTW, using that style of cutover means that once they start taking bookings in the new system which is this Fall sometime for a Summer 2017 cutover they will not be able to further delay cutover since it would be impossible to move the bookings from Altea back to the legacy system.

klkla wrote:

I think Kelly has had enough time in the job that he can be held responsible for this issue.

The real problem is the WN culture that fights change. I don't think you can place the blame on a single person very easily.

Well said and on point about WN culture.

Amiga500 wrote:

I wouldn't give much credence to a new york taxi driver saying the mayor should be replaced...

Not really a good analogy since taxi drivers are independent contractors and do not work for the city.

A good analogy would be a bunch of New York sanitation and street department workers who drive garbage trucks and snowplows calling for the mayor to be replaced.

IPFreely wrote:

Not really a good analogy since taxi drivers are independent contractors and do not work for the city.

A good analogy would be a bunch of New York sanitation and street department workers who drive garbage trucks and snowplows calling for the mayor to be replaced.

True true.

But I think the "skygods" might have difficulty making the connection between themselves and sanitation workers (although in fairness, if you hear half the stuff they talk you'd wonder is that a more accurate comparison than a trumped up taxi driver).

IPFreely wrote:

Amiga500 wrote:

I wouldn't give much credence to a new york taxi driver saying the mayor should be replaced...

Not really a good analogy since taxi drivers are independent contractors and do not work for the city.

A good analogy would be a bunch of New York sanitation and street department workers who drive garbage trucks and snowplows calling for the mayor to be replaced.

So you're calling 75% of the labored workforce mistaken (and apparently also sanitation workers) ?

The VNOC represented pilots,FAs, mechanics and all ground employees. The ramp/OPS employees recently ratified a contract, so this isn't about contract regotiations.

But please, continue to assume 77% of the work force is out of touch, and the Mayor is doing a fine job.

I'm sorry, but the thought that all of those 77% are truly spoken for is a joke. Many folks in the field do not support this behavior.

Hardly a joke

What do the employees expect if the CEO and COO leave? Do they expect the new guys to ignore economic realities, hand out unsustainable raises, and kill investment by not returning anything to the owners? Nothing will change if Kelly and Van de Ven leave. The replacements will do the same thing if they have their head on right. It's a good thing the inmates don't run the asylum.

The biggest reason employees aren't getting what they want is because they already have a great job. No other U.S. airline has offered the pay, benefits, work rules, and job security that Southwest has given over the past couple decades. The WN employees need to realize that. The market won't accept large increases in compensation for them.

Amiga500 wrote:

True true.

But I think the "skygods" might have difficulty making the connection between themselves and sanitation workers (although in fairness, if you hear half the stuff they talk you'd wonder is that a more accurate comparison than a trumped up taxi driver).

In fairness, sanitation workers drive garbage trucks which carry no passengers. If we're talking about NYC, bus drivers and subway conductors would be a more appropriate analogy.

IPFreely wrote:

Amiga500 wrote:

True true.

But I think the "skygods" might have difficulty making the connection between themselves and sanitation workers (although in fairness, if you hear half the stuff they talk you'd wonder is that a more accurate comparison than a trumped up taxi driver).

In fairness, sanitation workers drive garbage trucks which carry no passengers. If we're talking about NYC, bus drivers and subway conductors would be a more appropriate analogy.

Technically true, although in NYC, bus drivers and subway conductors (and subway train operators, as the conductors open and close the train doors, and perform other functions not directly involved with that actual operation of the train), work for MTA, which is not a city agency (I think it is actually overseen by the state of New York, as it covers transportation in the greater NY area, which includes Long Island and the counties immediately north of the city).

The ignorance and smugness of some posts are just too much. The audacity to compare what a pilot does to taxi,bus and sanitation drivers smacks of arrogance and insecurity at the same time. That is not taking a swipe at those jobs. To make the comparison and be serious .....astounding.

Most of the population can't drive in a straight line from A to B accident free. Said posters could more than likely like myself and both my dogs, apply for and promptly be hired for the job of taxi driver,bus driver or sanitation driver. From a group of 100 people 90 could be hired off the street and perform the job.

From a group of 100 I'd love to know how many could be hired off the street and step in to the function of CA/FO at a major. Hell...even a regional !

These posts are tiresome. Stop the envy and wage envy. That or go get your ATP.

Everyone is a bus driver until they have a bird strike on climb out or approach, holding over a fix with TS everywhere and your bingo fuel is burning up. THEN Captain Sully is more than a bus driver.

The comparisons are reaching at their best.

To make those statements I hope one DIRECTLY handles the lives of people at +450mph and 7 miles above the ground on a daily basis.


Yes. Why yes that is just like driving a taxi,bus or garbage truck.

BCEaglesCO757 wrote:

Everyone is a bus driver until they have a bird strike on climb out or approach, holding over a fix with TS everywhere and your bingo fuel is burning up. THEN Captain Sully is more than a bus driver.

To be fair, unexpected dangers likely occur even more frequently among Bus and Taxi drivers no? Likely exponentially more frequently. And while the certifications to be a pilot are lengthier ordeals that are more expensive when compared to a bus driver, are the starting salaries not more or less equivalent (regional obviously)?

BCEaglesCO757 wrote:

From a group of 100 I'd love to know how many could be hired off the street and step in to the function of CA/FO at a major. Hell...even a regional !

Well obviously that's a bit of a red herring, as no pilot for any commercial airline is literally "hired off the street" and steps into revenue flying. But nonetheless, that's perhaps a fair point, and I don't necessarily disagree.

On the flip side, though, I think sometimes organized labor would benefit from recognizing that, objectively, the same could just easily be said about being, for example, the CEO or CFO of an airline. How many could be "hired off the street" and do that job? I mean, after all, there are tens of thousands of commercial airline pilots (and flight attendants, and mechanics, etc.) in the United States, and probably 50-60 airline CEOs and CFOs. Would the average rank and file union member at any airline like to sign up ("off the street") to personally certify - under threat of imprisonment - that the airline's audited financial statements are accurate? How many pilots, flight attendants, mechanics or ground workers can read and understand a 10-K?

I guess all I'm saying is that once arguments devolve into a back and forth about how special or unique or irreplaceable one group or another is, I think it totally misses the point, which is that every member of an organization as complex as an airline is important in their own way.

The fact that at slower speeds and on the ground so MANY accidents can be incurred should speak volumes, no ?

People walk away from auto collisions all the time.

How many people could we expect to walk away from a midair collision ?

No comparisons. The recognition and reaction times...it's just silly.

I don't think it's really fair for anyone on the outside to comment on the culture at WN.

BCEaglesCO757 wrote:

The ignorance and smugness of some posts are just too much. The audacity to compare what a pilot does to taxi,bus and sanitation drivers smacks of arrogance and insecurity at the same time. That is not taking a swipe at those jobs. To make the comparison and be serious .....astounding.

Most of the population can't drive in a straight line from A to B accident free. Said posters could more than likely like myself and both my dogs, apply for and promptly be hired for the job of taxi driver,bus driver or sanitation driver. From a group of 100 people 90 could be hired off the street and perform the job.

From a group of 100 I'd love to know how many could be hired off the street and step in to the function of CA/FO at a major. Hell...even a regional !

These posts are tiresome. Stop the envy and wage envy. That or go get your ATP.

Everyone is a bus driver until they have a bird strike on climb out or approach, holding over a fix with TS everywhere and your bingo fuel is burning up. THEN Captain Sully is more than a bus driver.

The comparisons are reaching at their best.

To make those statements I hope one DIRECTLY handles the lives of people at +450mph and 7 miles above the ground on a daily basis.


Yes. Why yes that is just like driving a taxi,bus or garbage truck.

Thank you - perfectly stated. It's ironic that certain people have referred to as "sanitation workers" as our very own Executive Officers have called us "plumbers". Coincidence?

Here's some subway drivers just riding down the rails......

http://www.facebook.com/TheAcquaPlanet/ ... 577182053/

par13del wrote:

rather than a merger we are seeing the birth of another legacy?

Technically, WN can never be a Legacy carrier, as they didn't have interstate operational authority prior to 1978.
DL, AA, UA, and AS are the only four actual Legacies remaining.

Though WN, as well as HA, may as well be "legacies" considering the scope/type of their operations.

downdata wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

winginit wrote:

Measured how? Certainly not by margin, or gross profit...

Did you read the post? Roc and IRR.

Which are two terrible metrics. ROIC can be manipulated with share buybacks and debt issues. IRR is the shittiest, most meaningless financial metric ever invented by men due to the impossible assumption that all proceeds can be reinvested at the IRR and the fact that it does not take into consideration the cost of capital (i.e. risks). I don't see you investing your life savings in a biotech start up with 3000% IRR.

Your post is nonsensical.

IRR is a widely respected metric of any industry as it is a direct indicator of sustained business model efficiency.

Comparing AA, UA and WN's IRR allows you to draw very distinct conclusions on who is using capital the most efficiently. It's also the reason why airlines like Allegiant are wall street favorites. They are pulling blood from a stone.


Comparing businesses across industries obviously doesn't fly as the risks are completely different. Corporate Finance 101.

Varsity1 wrote:

IRR is a widely respected metric of any industry as it is a direct indicator of sustained business model efficiency.

Comparing AA, UA and WN's IRR allows you to draw very distinct conclusions on who is using capital the most efficiently. It's also the reason why airlines like Allegiant are wall street favorites. They are pulling blood from a stone.

Well that may be true, but it's equally true that ROIC is, indeed, a metric like most others - which is to say, it's entirely manipulable, and it does, indeed, have many definitions and means of calculation - even among airlines. In addition, the mere fact that a given metric is a "Wall Street favorite" doesn't really validate (or invalidate, for that matter) anything for me - analysts on Wall Street have proven themselves both highly adept and highly useless at spotting value in this and many other industries. All that is to say that ROIC isn't the metric, it's a metric - a good one, but no metric alone tells the full story on any company.

Varsity1 wrote:

Comparing businesses across industries obviously doesn't fly as the risks are completely different. Corporate Finance 101.

Better tell Delta's management - they've been beating the drum about "High Quality Industrial" comps for years now.

downdata wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

winginit wrote:

Measured how? Certainly not by margin, or gross profit...

Did you read the post? Roc and IRR.

Which are two terrible metrics. ROIC can be manipulated with share buybacks and debt issues. IRR is the shittiest, most meaningless financial metric ever invented by men due to the impossible assumption that all proceeds can be reinvested at the IRR and the fact that it does not take into consideration the cost of capital (i.e. risks). I don't see you investing your life savings in a biotech start up with 3000% IRR.

While Gary's fiscal discipline and conservative growth have served WN quite well, I would say the, for lack of a better term, obsession with the 15% ROIC led to some short-term decisions to pinch pennies during a ~5 year transformational phase that justified firehoses of money. Certain projects that should have been done in parallel in 2011 were, imho, spread out primarily to avoid spooking investors with high capex figures.

I wonder if dumping the 717s and cutting certain routes is going to bite them down the road since they rolled out a red carpet for NK to expand.