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787fan8
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Future SJC Airlines

Mon Aug 08, 2016 7:32 pm

SJC has been on an absolute roll lately in terms of adding new service, both domestically and internationally. What new airlines do you think we can expect from SJC in the near future?
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flyby519
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Mon Aug 08, 2016 8:43 pm

SFO is constricted and lacking gate space for expansion, OAK is WN territory, so I'd say SJC would be prime for LCCs to expand like NK, G4, F9.
 
Noise
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:05 pm

WestJet, maybe?
 
BayAreaFlyer
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:10 pm

Since SJC authorities are primary focused of adding more routes to the East Coast. Here's a few possibilities of future air service expansion at SJC.

B6 starting SJC-FLL. AA adding SJC-JFK. F9 resuming SJC-DEN. AS starting SJC-MCO. UA resuming SJC-IAD. AC restoring mainline on the SJC-YVR route.

Will not be surprised to see AC resuming SJC-YYZ.

Europe International Expansion:

Edelweiss adding SJC-ZRH
Last edited by BayAreaFlyer on Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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PacificBeach88
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:11 pm

787fan8 wrote:
SJC has been on an absolute roll lately in terms of adding new service, both domestically and internationally. What new airlines do you think we can expect from SJC in the near future?


SJC does well in "boom" times. Then comes the "bust" and SJC shrinks by 30% or 50% and stays that way for 10 years, until the next "boom". Rinse / repeat.

WestJet or DY or IcelandAir are likely your next intl carriers.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:53 pm

BayAreaFlyer wrote:
Since SJC authorities are primary focused of adding more routes to the East Coast. Here's a few possibilities of future air service expansion at SJC.

B6 starting SJC-FLL. AA adding SJC-JFK. F9 resuming SJC-DEN. AS starting SJC-MCO. UA resuming SJC-IAD. AC restoring mainline on the SJC-YVR route.

Will not be surprised to see AC resuming SJC-YYZ.

Europe International Expansion:

Edelweiss adding SJC-ZRH


All reasonable guesses. I could see AS starting SJC-BOS, SJC-FLL, and restarting SJC-AUS. Maybe even AS doing SJC-DCA. I agree that SJC is lacking transcon services, especially to BOS, JFK and IAD with limited or no non-stop service these days.

Anyone have any data on how LHR, PEK, and FRA are doing? I think it's already been stated that NH is doing well at SJC with decent load factors and yields, correct?
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Mon Aug 08, 2016 10:12 pm

PacificBeach88 wrote:
787fan8 wrote:
SJC has been on an absolute roll lately in terms of adding new service, both domestically and internationally. What new airlines do you think we can expect from SJC in the near future?


SJC does well in "boom" times. Then comes the "bust" and SJC shrinks by 30% or 50% and stays that way for 10 years, until the next "boom". Rinse / repeat.

WestJet or DY or IcelandAir are likely your next intl carriers.

WestJet is more feasible. DY is at OAK, and FI is looking at SFO.
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iadadd
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Mon Aug 08, 2016 10:32 pm

As crazy as this may sound,
Emirates DXB-SJC . Bay Area has the second largest Indian population in the US, and EK is only 1x daily into SFO. Coupled with the status of SJC as the hub to Silicon Valley, which is staffed by many Indians, I think this may have potential.
 
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787fan8
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:06 pm

I'll go ahead and give my predictions:
International:
KE: ICN (Seoul is one of the top five most requested destinations from SJC)
BR: TPE (AA has tried the route before, might be demand for it now)
CX: HKG (Wild card, but you never know)
AF:CDG (Only if AF fixes it's financial problems, otherwise DY should do it)
EK: DXB (Obviously we will see a ME3 carrier at SJC sometime in the future)
Domestic:
B6: FLL
F9: DEN, ORD
NK: DTW, IAH, LAS
UA: IAD
AA: MIA, JFK
Last edited by 787fan8 on Tue Aug 09, 2016 12:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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gregn21
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 12:00 am

Domestic/shorthaul
UA: IAD, switch DEN to mainline
AS: LAX
NK: DFW, MSP, FLL, wherever NK want to fly. . .
WN: LGB (if they get more slots)
AM: MEX, GDL
AC: YYZ
Also, AA/DL/UA should start premium transcon once or twice daily to SJC

Longhauls-
DY: CDG, LGW, ARN (one daily flight total)
EK: DXB
KE/OZ: ICN
CA/BR: TPE
CX: HKG
 
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SFOA380
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:16 am

Totally correct that during the next down cycle it would be expected that some of these new carriers that duplicate SFO service would dial-back SJC. However I think LH is the only one that would be likely to bolt. I think BA will stick and I think NH will stick. I think the Chinese carriers are likely stay even if yields suffer as they seem less concerned about short term. Really depends on how deep the next down cycle is... If good times continue to roll I think ICN, TPE and DXB would be next... The catchment area is huge and tons of Far East traffic comes from Silicon Valley. I'm actually surprised the 3rd daily BR SFO-TPE didn't go down to SJC. Hong Kong is more of a long shot as this is far more SF-centric.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:47 am

I think everyone has pretty much covered the potential airlines and routes. Maybe two more international carriers, KE to ICN and EK to DXB. AM has already expressed interest. Daytime non stops to BOS, NYC area and DC.

Two main factors have kept SJC down, aside from economic swings...

1. The concentration of flights at SFO and the willingness (and possible preference or perception) of passengers to drive past SJC to get to SFO. If airline have all the flights up there, and passengers don't mind driving there, then SFO booms and SJC picks up crumbs.

2. With all those airlines at SFO, the fares are lower because of competition. I've priced some trips through both airports, and SFO has been a bit cheaper.

If a shift can occur where there are enough non stop flights AND parity of airfares, then SJC might reach a critical mass that will draw enough of that bleed off traffic to SFO to see more parity of service. The passengers ARE there.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:53 am

SJC needs a regional carrier like GLO out of MSY or Silver Airways out of FLL...or even like Sierra Expressway out of OAK back in the early 1990's.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:58 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
SJC needs a regional carrier like GLO out of MSY or Silver Airways out of FLL...or even like Sierra Expressway out of OAK back in the early 1990's.



Would love to see a hub there, like the "good ole days" of the AA hub with flights to smaller markets.

I've seen FLL and MIA mentioned. Do we really think the traffic is there? Or would it be bleed-back from SFO?
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 2:04 am

Slightly off topic but it is interesting how SJC has really left OAK in the dust over the past couple of years.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 2:27 am

dfwjim1 wrote:
Slightly off topic but it is interesting how SJC has really left OAK in the dust over the past couple of years.


It is. The trend seemed to be OAK as an alternative to SFO. What do you folks attribute the shift to? Silicon Valley rebound? Population shift?
 
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SFOA380
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 2:50 am

OAK has been on a roll as well. Not the headline grabbing foreign carriers but lots of new service from WN and others. Numbers are up over 10% YOY at OAK.
 
flyrocoak
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 3:26 am

dfwjim1 wrote:
Slightly off topic but it is interesting how SJC has really left OAK in the dust over the past couple of years.


OAK is doing okay, too. 1.1 m passengers for June vs 991k in SJC. SJC is seeing greater growth percentages YOY at 10.1% vs. OAK 9.9%. I wouldn't say it's leaving OAK in the dust.
 
BayAreaFlyer
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 4:46 am

AirFiero wrote:
dfwjim1 wrote:
Slightly off topic but it is interesting how SJC has really left OAK in the dust over the past couple of years.


There's already a new Asian carrier in the works that will be serving OAK in the next 1-3 years. But can't mention it in this thread.

G4 could be starting OAK-EWR as well as LAX-EWR soon.
 
LH707330
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:02 am

dfwjim1 wrote:
Slightly off topic but it is interesting how SJC has really left OAK in the dust over the past couple of years.

Money talks.... The south bay has a lot of big companies that are making a splash, including Tesla and their international suppliers.

One possible hiccup for EK if they want to send a 777 is the wingspan on taxiways at SJC. For wingspans past 198 feet (IIRC) they have different separation rules.
 
aklrno
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:15 am

SFOA380 wrote:
OAK has been on a roll as well. Not the headline grabbing foreign carriers but lots of new service from WN and others. Numbers are up over 10% YOY at OAK.

Is part of this due to having BART service direct to OAK?

In October I've got a flight AKL-SFO but I want to get to RNO. The easiest way seems to be flying OAK-RNO. I can get from SFO to OAK in about 1 hour with a high likelihood of being on time for about $9 (senior fare) , so that's what I'm doing. The OAK-RNO fight is half the price of SFO-RNO and the timing is far better.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:30 pm

flyrocoak wrote:
dfwjim1 wrote:
Slightly off topic but it is interesting how SJC has really left OAK in the dust over the past couple of years.


OAK is doing okay, too. 1.1 m passengers for June vs 991k in SJC. SJC is seeing greater growth percentages YOY at 10.1% vs. OAK 9.9%. I wouldn't say it's leaving OAK in the dust.


My bad...I meant in terms of sexy international carriers
 
hayzel777
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 3:04 pm

SFOA380 wrote:
Totally correct that during the next down cycle it would be expected that some of these new carriers that duplicate SFO service would dial-back SJC. However I think LH is the only one that would be likely to bolt. I think BA will stick and I think NH will stick. I think the Chinese carriers are likely stay even if yields suffer as they seem less concerned about short term. Really depends on how deep the next down cycle is... If good times continue to roll I think ICN, TPE and DXB would be next... The catchment area is huge and tons of Far East traffic comes from Silicon Valley. I'm actually surprised the 3rd daily BR SFO-TPE didn't go down to SJC. Hong Kong is more of a long shot as this is far more SF-centric.


BR has no 3rd daily SFO-TPE. However, they have made hints in their company memos that the new 787-9/10's first international route will be SJC when they get them in 2018.
 
hayzel777
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 3:04 pm

SJC will have to get more international gates if they want to attract more airlines. If not, the slot times may not fit the airlines schedule and they won't start the service. Also, late-night Asia flights cannot operate due to the curfew unless they plan on landing at 2-3am.
 
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SFOA380
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 3:19 pm

hayzel777 wrote:
SFOA380 wrote:
Totally correct that during the next down cycle it would be expected that some of these new carriers that duplicate SFO service would dial-back SJC. However I think LH is the only one that would be likely to bolt. I think BA will stick and I think NH will stick. I think the Chinese carriers are likely stay even if yields suffer as they seem less concerned about short term. Really depends on how deep the next down cycle is... If good times continue to roll I think ICN, TPE and DXB would be next... The catchment area is huge and tons of Far East traffic comes from Silicon Valley. I'm actually surprised the 3rd daily BR SFO-TPE didn't go down to SJC. Hong Kong is more of a long shot as this is far more SF-centric.


BR has no 3rd daily SFO-TPE. However, they have made hints in their company memos that the new 787-9/10's first international route will be SJC when they get them in 2018.


My bad. I know it was announced and I thought it was loaded. I know they are planning a 3rd. daily.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 3:26 pm

What airline is BR? Sorry, my iPad doesn't do the flyover/pop outs. They seriously have SJC as their number one add for a 787?
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 4:01 pm

AirFiero wrote:
What airline is BR? Sorry, my iPad doesn't do the flyover/pop outs. They seriously have SJC as their number one add for a 787?


BR is EVA from Taiwan. As mentioned earlier, AA did SJC-TPE back in 2001 for about 6 month. I heard it did pretty well. I knew a co-worker who got routed TPE-NRT-SJC because the TPE-SJC flight was full in Business Class.

I don't know for sure that BR is planning SJC, but it certainly seems in the realm of possibility.
 
flySFO
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 4:10 pm

Where is SJC going to add all these gates? The international terminal is boxed in on both sides? Eventually I could see them building the full B-south and rebuilding A into an international terminal but what about in the next 3-5 years?
 
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legacyins
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:54 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
What airline is BR? Sorry, my iPad doesn't do the flyover/pop outs. They seriously have SJC as their number one add for a 787?


BR is EVA from Taiwan. As mentioned earlier, AA did SJC-TPE back in 2001 for about 6 month. I heard it did pretty well. I knew a co-worker who got routed TPE-NRT-SJC because the TPE-SJC flight was full in Business Class.

I don't know for sure that BR is planning SJC, but it certainly seems in the realm of possibility.


The AA flights from SJC-TPE/CDG lost a substantial amount of money and that is why they only lasted 6 months. This was quoted to me at the time by the station manager at SJC. Yes, the flight was reasonably full but the prices were rock bottom on most of the fares. The cancellation of these flights were announced before 9/11.
Last edited by legacyins on Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tonyban
Posts: 260
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:52 pm

Is this the correct forum to ask how the new British Airways LHR-SJC route is doing ?
 
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787fan8
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:10 pm

tonyban wrote:
Is this the correct forum to ask how the new British Airways LHR-SJC route is doing ?

I have created this forum to discuss airlines that could potentially add service to SJC, both domestic and international.
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dc10lover
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Wed Aug 10, 2016 5:05 am

I would think sjc would be more of an o&d airport than an international gateway.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
Fastphilly
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Wed Aug 10, 2016 5:32 am

dc10lover wrote:
I would think sjc would be more of an o&d airport than an international gateway.


For all intent and purpose it is.
 
hayzel777
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:17 am

SFOA380 wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
SFOA380 wrote:
Totally correct that during the next down cycle it would be expected that some of these new carriers that duplicate SFO service would dial-back SJC. However I think LH is the only one that would be likely to bolt. I think BA will stick and I think NH will stick. I think the Chinese carriers are likely stay even if yields suffer as they seem less concerned about short term. Really depends on how deep the next down cycle is... If good times continue to roll I think ICN, TPE and DXB would be next... The catchment area is huge and tons of Far East traffic comes from Silicon Valley. I'm actually surprised the 3rd daily BR SFO-TPE didn't go down to SJC. Hong Kong is more of a long shot as this is far more SF-centric.


BR has no 3rd daily SFO-TPE. However, they have made hints in their company memos that the new 787-9/10's first international route will be SJC when they get them in 2018.


My bad. I know it was announced and I thought it was loaded. I know they are planning a 3rd. daily.


I'm confused. When did they announce a 3rd daily? The only destination in North America with 3 daily is LAX. R u mixing SFO and LAX?
 
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atypical
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Wed Aug 10, 2016 10:25 am

legacyins wrote:
The AA flights from SJC-TPE/CDG lost a substantial amount of money and that is why they only lasted 6 months. This was quoted to me at the time by the station manager at SJC. Yes, the flight was reasonably full but the prices were rock bottom on most of the fares. The cancellation of these flights were announced before 9/11.


That is also my understanding however there are more reasons those flights did not do well. First Customs and Immigration was across the field and by all accounts a fairly unappetizing experience. Any convenience the flights offered over SFO was pretty much negated by that mess. Second, at the time SJC had shorter runways and the 777s were weight restricted on departure making those flight even more difficult to turn a profit. As far as I know the are no longer any departure weight restrictions on any flights even with the A340.
 
laca773
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:16 am

I don't see UA adding SJC-IAD anytime soon. They are adding SJC-EWR now to compete with AS's new service.
I was surprised to see UA also bring back SJC-ORD. SJC seemed like it was going to be another UAEx station. I'm glad things are turning around for them.
Perhaps we'll see AS add SJC-DCA (if they can get approval)? If anyone were to start SJC-BOS, other than what B6 does seasonally, I see B6 adding year round service in this market.
In regards to JFK, I could see DL adding SJC-JFK since they have increased their ATL service, have DLC, and mainline on SJC-LAX/SEA/SLC, and mainline on MSP.
I was hoping AM would have started service to SJC already. I can see them adding SJC-MEX/GDL.
IMO, the UK, & EU are well covered by BA & LH right now.
Asia? When is KE supposed to take delivery of their 787s?
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:49 am

atypical wrote:
legacyins wrote:
The AA flights from SJC-TPE/CDG lost a substantial amount of money and that is why they only lasted 6 months. This was quoted to me at the time by the station manager at SJC. Yes, the flight was reasonably full but the prices were rock bottom on most of the fares. The cancellation of these flights were announced before 9/11.


That is also my understanding however there are more reasons those flights did not do well. First Customs and Immigration was across the field and by all accounts a fairly unappetizing experience. Any convenience the flights offered over SFO was pretty much negated by that mess. Second, at the time SJC had shorter runways and the 777s were weight restricted on departure making those flight even more difficult to turn a profit. As far as I know the are no longer any departure weight restrictions on any flights even with the A340.


Yes, they still had the off-site temporary customs building when TPE and CDG operated. Then you had to get on a bus and reclaim your luggage again in the terminal.

However, I'm pretty sure the runways were already lengthened at that time so the weight restriction wasn't a factor.
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1323
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Thu Aug 11, 2016 1:31 am

Not a new airline, but I could occasionally use a non stop to CLT. I might even need to use that AA flight next week (it appears to have been extended until the end of next week).
 
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atypical
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Re: Future SJC Airlines

Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:59 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
However, I'm pretty sure the runways were already lengthened at that time so the weight restriction wasn't a factor.


The first 11,000 ft runway was opened to traffic on August 21, 2001. Exactly 3 weeks before 9-11. My guess would be those flights had already been cancelled and even if any were scheduled beyond 9-11 they never flew.

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