Qantas16 wrote:

TN486 wrote:

TT CBR-MEL thing.

I would think taking over from VA on a route like OOL or launching CNS would make more sense.

A320 would no doubt be WAY too big for this. In fact, I suspect CBR-OOL may well go if/when all the E190s are gone.

I predict QANTAS will use the 787-9 on the SYD-LAX route.

Makes sense to introduce a new aircraft on a route where you have a maintenance base at each end

DeltaB717 wrote:

Qantas16 wrote:

TN486 wrote:

TT CBR-MEL thing.

I would think taking over from VA on a route like OOL or launching CNS would make more sense.

A320 would no doubt be WAY too big for this. In fact, I suspect CBR-OOL may well go if/when all the E190s are gone.

Perhaps the CBR-OOL-CBR route may be "tigerised" as part of a MEL-CBR-OOL-CBR-MEL rotation a few days a week? MEL based TT crew could work the CBR-OOL-CBR rotation as either a separate run or work the entire MEL-CBR-OOL-CBR-MEL rotation.

travelhound wrote:

I predict QANTAS will use the 787-9 on the SYD-LAX route.

Makes sense to introduce a new aircraft on a route where you have a maintenance base at each end

Why? The whole point of launching on current routes is for crew training, expect short hops into Asia or Trans-Tasman, this way more crew can be trained, pilots can conduct more landings and departures and also ground crews in MEL, SYD or BNE can get familiar with the aircraft.

No airline will do crew familiarisation on LHR routes, the whole point is to avoid them.

log0008 wrote:

travelhound wrote:

I predict QANTAS will use the 787-9 on the SYD-LAX route.

Makes sense to introduce a new aircraft on a route where you have a maintenance base at each end

Why? The whole point of launching on current routes is for crew training, expect short hops into Asia or Trans-Tasman, this way more crew can be trained, pilots can conduct more landings and departures and also ground crews in MEL, SYD or BNE can get familiar with the aircraft.

No airline will do crew familiarisation on LHR routes, the whole point is to avoid them.

Agreed (although you threw me with the reference to 'LHR'!!). The initial, albeit temporary, deployments will no doubt be to the likes of AKL, SIN, HKG, PVG, maybe TYO.

I would think, where the B789 is intended by QF to permanently take over from B744 or others on longer routes, it will be to allow SFO to go daily, possibly to allow YVR to go year-round (and to have more frequencies in the high season), and to eventually expand SCL frequencies. I don't see LAX and I don't necessarily see DFW either (at least not to the extent others have suggested).

DeltaB717 wrote:

log0008 wrote:

travelhound wrote:

I predict QANTAS will use the 787-9 on the SYD-LAX route.

Makes sense to introduce a new aircraft on a route where you have a maintenance base at each end

Why? The whole point of launching on current routes is for crew training, expect short hops into Asia or Trans-Tasman, this way more crew can be trained, pilots can conduct more landings and departures and also ground crews in MEL, SYD or BNE can get familiar with the aircraft.

No airline will do crew familiarisation on LHR routes, the whole point is to avoid them.

Agreed (although you threw me with the reference to 'LHR'!!). The initial, albeit temporary, deployments will no doubt be to the likes of AKL, SIN, HKG, PVG, maybe TYO.

I would think, where the B789 is intended by QF to permanently take over from B744 or others on longer routes, it will be to allow SFO to go daily, possibly to allow YVR to go year-round (and to have more frequencies in the high season), and to eventually expand SCL frequencies. I don't see LAX and I don't necessarily see DFW either (at least not to the extent others have suggested).

LHR should have been LH route (long haul)

The most interesting thing from these routes (beside those who want to checkout the new aircraft) will be looking at where the operate from as it will be an indication of where the first 'real' routes will be from.

Also - VA555 SYD-PER is diverting to Melbourne:

https://www.flightradar24.com/VOZ555/ac5ab7b

Looking through the QF end of FY slides.

Looks like JQ are getting 2x (used) A321s and QF freight is getting a B734F.

Both Jetstar Japan and Jetstar Vietnam will be getting additional (new) A320s.

DeltaB717 wrote:

it will be to allow SFO to go daily

SFO is already daily (and very successful according to QF, would be surprising to see them drop a huge chunk of capacity there).

vhebb wrote:

QF freight is getting a B734F.

I think this was already announced as part of the Startrack partnership. Interesting to see JQ picking up some more A321s though.

qf002 wrote:

DeltaB717 wrote:

it will be to allow SFO to go daily

SFO is already daily (and very successful according to QF, would be surprising to see them drop a huge chunk of capacity there).

vhebb wrote:

QF freight is getting a B734F.

I think this was already announced as part of the Startrack partnership. Interesting to see JQ picking up some more A321s though.

QF will probably start up MEL-SFO with 789 and with that extra capacity they could probably drop SYD-SFO to 789 too. If it grows further then they could look to add BNE-SFO.

AirAsia X will increase MEL from 1 Dec 16 to 31 Jan 17 from 2 daily to 17 weekly

D7212 KUL1000 – 2110MEL 330 D
D7210 KUL1910 – 0600+1MEL 330 456
D7214 KUL2230 – 0920+1MEL 330 D

D7213 MEL0125 – 0640KUL 330 D
D7211 MEL0730 – 1245KUL 330 567
D7215 MEL1035 – 1550KUL 330 D

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... s-in-nw16/

AustBT is reporting that QF will commence international services with the 787 in mid to late November 2017 with the route being an existing route possibly in Asia which will be announced by the end of this year. New routes for the 787 will be announced in first quarter of 2017.

Qantas will start selling tickets on its first Boeing 787 flights before the year is out, with the advanced jet slated to run on an existing but as-yet-unrevealed international route.

The first of the red-tailed 787s will be handed over to Qantas in October 2017, with international flights slated to start in mid-late November.

The jet is also likely to make some 'surprise and delight' appearances on Qantas' domestic network, with transcontinental flights on the cards, before taking wing on its international route - which some pundits tip will be an Asian city.

The first quarter of 2017 will see Qantas reveal the first of several new international Dreamliner destinations, based on the additional three Boeing 787s due for delivery by mid-2018.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-boeing-7 ... year-s-end

The first route no doubt will be used for training and familiarisation. Id think a short run up to SIN and back would be on the cards to maximise the opportunities to rotate crews through. It'd also showcase it to plenty of pax whilst doing the run.

As it turns out, apparently yesterday was the 27th anniversary of day during the 1989 Australian pilots' dispute (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Aust ... 27_dispute) on which 1645 pilots resigned (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_23).

A lot of people here will probably be sad to hear that Captain David Massy-Greene died a few days ago.

qf002 wrote:

it will be to allow SFO to go daily

SFO is already daily (and very successful according to QF, would be surprising to see them drop a huge chunk of capacity there).

Incorrect. San Fran is 6 per week and daily over December / January only. QF also needs to get rid of the unreconifgured 744's from its system as the product is simply not up to scratch. (For that matter the Skybed 2's need to be replaced as well so hopefully the 789 Suite goes onto the A380's as well)

qf2220 wrote:

The first route no doubt will be used for training and familiarisation. Id think a short run up to SIN and back would be on the cards to maximise the opportunities to rotate crews through. It'd also showcase it to plenty of pax whilst doing the run.

For training runs the routes that makes sense are SYD-PER, SYD-MEL and SYD-AKL. QF are all reconfigured A330's into Singapore, aside from the 738's to PER, so I can't see them messing with that. If anything the route in Asia to put the 789 on is the second SYD-HKG service because that allows for Premium Economy on both flights out of SYD.

Zkpilot wrote:

QF will probably start up MEL-SFO with 789 and with that extra capacity they could probably drop SYD-SFO to 789 too. If it grows further then they could look to add BNE-SFO.

I think you'll see MEL-DFW before you see MEL-SFO. My bet for first 789 long haul route to be BNE-LAX-JFK. That allows for the older 744 retirements and keeps the latest premium product going into JFK. It also allows room for AA to come into BNE.

Sydscott wrote:

Incorrect. San Fran is 6 per week and daily over December / January only. QF also needs to get rid of the unreconifgured 744's from its system as the product is simply not up to scratch. (For that matter the Skybed 2's need to be replaced as well so hopefully the 789 Suite goes onto the A380's as well)

I didn't realise it had come back down from daily, though going from 2184 seats a week to 1645 is clearly still a huge step backwards given recent comments about the success of the route. Personally I don't see MEL-SFO being on QF's radar at this stage.

And yes I agree that the older 744s need to go but that doesn't mean that we will see a direct replacement. I'm still of the opinion that we will see some shuffling around of the A380s in the next few years as the 789s enter service.

Sydscott wrote:

If anything the route in Asia to put the 789 on is the second SYD-HKG service because that allows for Premium Economy on both flights out of SYD.

SYD-HKG makes a huge amount of sense to me - already a three class market, strong premium demand and good utilisation.

Sydscott wrote:

qf002 wrote:

it will be to allow SFO to go daily

SFO is already daily (and very successful according to QF, would be surprising to see them drop a huge chunk of capacity there).

Incorrect. San Fran is 6 per week and daily over December / January only. QF also needs to get rid of the unreconifgured 744's from its system as the product is simply not up to scratch. (For that matter the Skybed 2's need to be replaced as well so hopefully the 789 Suite goes onto the A380's as well)

qf2220 wrote:

The first route no doubt will be used for training and familiarisation. Id think a short run up to SIN and back would be on the cards to maximise the opportunities to rotate crews through. It'd also showcase it to plenty of pax whilst doing the run.

For training runs the routes that makes sense are SYD-PER, SYD-MEL and SYD-AKL. QF are all reconfigured A330's into Singapore, aside from the 738's to PER, so I can't see them messing with that. If anything the route in Asia to put the 789 on is the second SYD-HKG service because that allows for Premium Economy on both flights out of SYD.

Zkpilot wrote:

QF will probably start up MEL-SFO with 789 and with that extra capacity they could probably drop SYD-SFO to 789 too. If it grows further then they could look to add BNE-SFO.

I think you'll see MEL-DFW before you see MEL-SFO. My bet for first 789 long haul route to be BNE-LAX-JFK. That allows for the older 744 retirements and keeps the latest premium product going into JFK. It also allows room for AA to come into BNE.

789 is far too small BNE-LAX...IMO this will be a 747 route for a while until QF decide on either a A359 or 77X. If QF really are going to put a premium heavy config with a lower seat count, the ratio of passenger classes isn't right for the route which supports 747 capacity, even if they increased frequency with either additional QF services or AA on the route, a potential double daily 789 would match economy demand and allow for a small amount of growth beyond what the 747 holds, but be too premium heavy.

Just taking a look at QF SFO passenger statistics ytd March 31st 2016. For January the L/F was 78%; February 64% and March 63%. This route is clearly work in progress. Depending on the % of premium seats occupied the 789 would have handled the traffic in February and March.

sunrisevalley wrote:

Just taking a look at QF SFO passenger statistics ytd March 31st 2016. For January the L/F was 78%; February 64% and March 63%. This route is clearly work in progress. Depending on the % of premium seats occupied the 789 would have handled the traffic in February and March.

You expect those sorts of figures for February-March though, especially when looking at a brand new route. If they were already filling a 789 at the quietest time of the year just a few weeks after launch then I think it's clear that the market is more than capable of handling something larger in the long term.

[

qf002 wrote:

sunrisevalley wrote:

Just taking a look at QF SFO passenger statistics ytd March 31st 2016. For January the L/F was 78%; February 64% and March 63%. This route is clearly work in progress. Depending on the % of premium seats occupied the 789 would have handled the traffic in February and March.

You expect those sorts of figures for February-March though, especially when looking at a brand new route. If they were already filling a 789 at the quietest time of the year just a few weeks after launch then I think it's clear that the market is more than capable of handling something larger in the long term.

+]

But a 364/371 seat 744 is overkill. Do they have some 238t 332's ? They would work.

I agree that the 747s need to go soon.

AusBT reported QF are having selected P1s over to discuss its First experience in the A380. My guess is they didn't announce any cabin upgrades yesterday because they don't know how much it will cost or what it will look like. I think while yields are shocking (for everyone), QF can get away with an average product for a little longer.

qf002 wrote:

I didn't realise it had come back down from daily, though going from 2184 seats a week to 1645 is clearly still a huge step backwards given recent comments about the success of the route.

It was 4/5 weekly when it started in December. Then increased to 6 weekly from February, never daily.

The Tuesday service this coming Dec/Jan is only seasonal.

Sydscott wrote:

qf002 wrote:

If anything the route in Asia to put the 789 on is the second SYD-HKG service because that allows for Premium Economy on both flights out of SYD.

Id have thought SIN would allow more rotations to be done to get the crews up to speed - or is HKG (including any turn time) much of a muchness. I also feel it would have to be an international route used for training for international crews - would 789 crews be allowed to do domestic work (from a union perspective)??

qf2220 wrote:

Sydscott wrote:

qf002 wrote:

If anything the route in Asia to put the 789 on is the second SYD-HKG service because that allows for Premium Economy on both flights out of SYD.

Id have thought SIN would allow more rotations to be done to get the crews up to speed - or is HKG (including any turn time) much of a muchness. I also feel it would have to be an international route used for training for international crews - would 789 crews be allowed to do domestic work (from a union perspective)??

SIN and HKG are much of a muchness - on current scheduling, one aircraft could do the same MEL/BNE/SYD-HKG rotation every day.

FWIW I see more value in AKL than in SIN or HKG for the first few weeks of training flights - 2 rotations a day are possible with each airframe as opposed to only one going to SIN/HKG.

My recollection of the intro into service of the JQ 788 was, initially (after domestic runs) MEL/SYD AKL. Can we expect the same of the QF 789's for a period of months.

sunrisevalley wrote:

But a 364/371 seat 744 is overkill. Do they have some 238t 332's ? They would work.

You can't leap to that conclusion based on the load factor performance during the weakest possible period though. All the other evidence points to this route being a success for QF so far even if load factors weren't amazing in the first couple of months (and it's worth noting that QF had other US routes in the mid-60s in February-March, they are perfectly normal numbers for that time of year).

getluv wrote:

It was 4/5 weekly when it started in December. Then increased to 6 weekly from February, never daily.

Ah thank you, obviously getting a little ahead of myself. Still, it shows confidence in the route.

DeltaB717 wrote:

FWIW I see more value in AKL than in SIN or HKG for the first few weeks of training flights - 2 rotations a day are possible with each airframe as opposed to only one going to SIN/HKG.

I think there are two separate discussions happening here - ad hoc training flights (for which domestics and AKL make more sense) and QF's first proper route while they build the fleet up (for which something in Asia makes more sense).

But a 364/371 seat 744 is overkill. Do they have some 238t 332's ? They would work.[/quote]

I think the 238t version would still take a reasonable payload hit. I think they were payload limited on the LAX-AKL route, if that was a 238t aircraft?

Need a 242t version for this route, which they don't have

Tigers MEL-CBR now on sale

TT 667 MEL-CBR DEP 5:35PM ARI 6:40PM
TT 668 CBR-MEL DEP 7:10PM ARI 8:20PM

Starts December 8

Sale price currently as low as $59 each way.

re the 789, would´nt a bunch of SYD-MEL make more sence for crew profficency. a lot more landings than SYD-SIN for example.... ? Just a thought if you want to get lot´s of crew up to speed quickly!

LandSweetLand wrote:

As it turns out, apparently yesterday was the 27th anniversary of day during the 1989 Australian pilots' dispute (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Aust ... 27_dispute) on which 1645 pilots resigned (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_23).

yup, although I am not a pilot, things were dire back then, even for ops, tech & admin staff! I got 27 years of ´european/global exile´ as a result. Not that I can complain, those years were good aswell from a career perspective angle.... but the homesickness is starting to win the war!

log0008 wrote:

Tigers MEL-CBR now on sale

TT 667 MEL-CBR DEP 5:35PM ARI 6:40PM
TT 668 CBR-MEL DEP 7:10PM ARI 8:20PM

Starts December 8

Sale price currently as low as $59 each way.

TT will operate a split schedule

TT663 MEL1030-1135CBR Mon, Tues, Wed, Sat
TT667 MEL1735-1840CBR Thu, Fri, Sun

TT666CBR1205-1315MEL Mon, Tues, Wed, Sat
TT668 CBR1910-2020MEL Thu, Fri, Sun

http://australianaviation.com.au/2016/0 ... e-service/

ACCC issues draft determination extension of VA/SQ alliance for 5 more years

http://australianaviation.com.au/2016/0 ... ore-years/

Batik Air looking at serving Australia from Bali with A321neos

The Lion Group full service Indonesia-based airline subsidiary Batik Air is preparing to launch services to Australia, initially from the popular resort island of Bali. If approved by Australia’s Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA), Batik will become the second Lion Group airline to serve Australia, after its Malaysian JV – Malindo Air.

Malindo secured CASA approval in 2015 and launched services from Kuala Lumpur to Perth in Nov-2015. Batik will be able to reach deeper into Australia, including Melbourne and Sydney, since Bali is closer to Australia than Kuala Lumpur, and the airline will use new generation longer-range A321neos.

Lion Group to receive first A321neo in mid 2017

http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/b ... ali-298149

For those interested, Jetstar Japan has released a separate statement outlining their profit numbers:

http://centreforaviation.com/news/jetst ... ans-588444

http://centreforaviation.com/files/anal ... 50/15%20(6).pdf

Click on the pdf for the details.

Also interesting that GK has been approved by China to fly NRT & KIX to PVG and NRT & KIX to CAN.

qf789 wrote:

log0008 wrote:

Tigers MEL-CBR now on sale

TT 667 MEL-CBR DEP 5:35PM ARI 6:40PM
TT 668 CBR-MEL DEP 7:10PM ARI 8:20PM

Starts December 8

Sale price currently as low as $59 each way.

TT will operate a split schedule

TT663 MEL1030-1135CBR Mon, Tues, Wed, Sat
TT667 MEL1735-1840CBR Thu, Fri, Sun

TT666CBR1205-1315MEL Mon, Tues, Wed, Sat
TT668 CBR1910-2020MEL Thu, Fri, Sun

http://australianaviation.com.au/2016/0 ... e-service/

Ah thanks - i was just looking at Tigers booking page so only saw select days.

According to planespotters (generally very reliable), the next JQ A321 is new build and sharklet-equipped. MSN7384.

https://www.planespotters.net/productio ... e=A321-200

Air Niugini starting 30OCT16 is boosting operations on Port Moresby – Cairns route, as Qantas Airways ending operation on this route from the same date. Existing 9 weekly flights will be increased to 15 weekly, with a mix of Fokker 70 and 100 aircraft.

PX090 POM0930 – 1055CNS F70 x146
PX090 POM0930 – 1055CNS 100 146
PX094 POM1420 – 1545CNS F70 57
PX098 POM1700 – 1825CNS 100 457
PX098 POM1700 – 1825CNS F70 123

PX091 CNS0630 – 0755POM 100 156
PX091 CNS0630 – 0755POM F70 3
PX091 CNS0645 – 0810POM F70 24
PX093 CNS1145 – 1310POM F70 x146
PX093 CNS1145 – 1310POM 100 146
PX095 CNS1630 – 1755POM F70 57

The airline also operates 1 weekly Rabaul – Cairns flight, with Dash8-Q400 aircraft.

Source: http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... =hootsuite

Good to see PX absorbing some of the lost Qantas capacity. Does not appear to be a reduction in their BNE capacity (yet).

QF and PX look to be entering into a broad codeshare on the PNG-Aus routes, including POM-CNS, POM-BNE and POM-SYD.

http://iasc.gov.au/applications/index.aspx
(link is only relevant whilst this capacity request is current)

qf2220 wrote:

QF and PX look to be entering into a broad codeshare on the PNG-Aus routes, including POM-CNS, POM-BNE and POM-SYD.

http://iasc.gov.au/applications/index.aspx
(link is only relevant whilst this capacity request is current)

QF already codeshare on PX's BNE-POM and SYD-POM (not CNS-POM though). This is just an expansion/reorganisation of that to accommodate the changes to which airline operates each route.

I've herd rumours of a new Asian airline looking to fly into Melbourne Q1 next year - will we see another Chinese Airline? Or potentially a return of KE, or OZ, JL?

Interesting to note NZ seem to have more 777s into MEL these days, noticed three wide bodies some days of the week - how long have they been doing this for?

Hainan starting from Melbourne 2/11

HU7901 XIY 1630 MEL 0700+1 Tuesday Friday
HU7902 MEL 0900 XIY 1730 Wednesday Saturday

zkncj wrote:

[quote="smi0006"
Interesting to note NZ seem to have more 777s into MEL these days, noticed three wide bodies some days of the week - how long have they been doing this for?

About the last 12 months, both BNE,MEL have been seeing an second widebody service. In there 2016 results it was mentioned that SYD,BNE,MEL would all see an increase in widebody use. Also with 763 services moving towards 772/789 services, the last 763 service is in late march 2017.

AKL-SYD now sees an mix of 3-5x daily 777/789/763 services depending on the week, yet Qantas seems happy with the 738.[/quote]

Interesting point around QF - I would imagine cargo would play a part too. QF have EK 380s, and their own freighters to work with. From the day I recall MEL had a lunchtime, afternoon and evening wide body which would time well for overnight freight I would assume.

Boeing have just announced Qantas' first B787-9 to be Line number 615, ZB269, for delivery to QF at Paine Field, Everett, WA, USA on 27 September 2017

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/ ... on-closer/

So it looks like that IF PER-LHR is to happen (obviously a very big if) QF will add an international area to their current domestic terminal at PER. I guess there's plenty of space since VA left. I don't think it would cost much for a customs area but if they need to start creating international biz lounges it won't be cheap - i suspect the government will have to get involved...
There was another article by Geoffrey Thomas in the Weekend West - unfortunately it's not online - he sounded a bit more bullish on PER-LHR.

Also - the recent CAPA article covering QF's results suggests there are strategic advantages for QF to start PER-LHR in the article summary - but it's behind a paywall, does anyone have access or any ideas over what these advantages are? http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/q ... fic-298498

zkncj wrote:

The has been some talk recently that NZ will beat them to it with an AKL-PER-LHR 789 service from 2017, and NZ are now adding an PER lounge (currently use QF) so must be something in the works.

I really hope that it's just idle gossip and that Air NZ does NOT do that.

mariner

zkncj wrote:

mh124 wrote:

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/32456094/non-stop-flight-to-london-closer/

So it looks like that IF PER-LHR is to happen (obviously a very big if) QF will add an international area to their current domestic terminal at PER. I guess there's plenty of space since VA left. I don't think it would cost much for a customs area but if they need to start creating international biz lounges it won't be cheap - i suspect the government will have to get involved...

The has been some talk recently that NZ will beat them to it with an AKL-PER-LHR 789 service from 2017, and NZ are now adding an PER lounge (currently use QF) so must be something in the works.

I agree it does seem a little odd to put a lounge in for only 1 daily service (more in peak), however they may have interest from existing carriers in sharing the lounge (and therefore the cost). If they could get enough airlines using the lounge it would probably be worth their while.

I would be pretty surprised to see AKL-PER-LHR, especially given the weaker relationship between NZ and VA now and the cooling WA market. I don't know if the market is there for a direct PER-LHR flight alone, and you would think VA would favour EY/SQ for Europe over NZ (does their agreement even extend to Europe?). It's also not an efficient way of flying AKL-LHR as you have one relatively short leg and then one very long leg - much better off going via a NE Asian port like HKG, PVG or NRT.

Tbh I'm not even sure it would be worth it for QF but at least they can feed the flight from their large domestic network.