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LandSweetLand
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Sep 04, 2016 11:16 am

VSMUT wrote:
You also have to redesign the vertical fins, to compensate for the increase in yaw in case of a single engine failure on takeoff.


Since it's not carrying the shuttle this time, if you're cutting 2 engines, you may as well just drop back to a single tail fin. :P

Not really a 225 anymore if they start cutting bits off, and we want to keep it looking like a 225. :D
 
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anfromme
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:38 pm

N14AZ wrote:
I wonder how they want to transport the existing fuselage to China.[...]Have fun transporting this fuselage to China....

Per the article, it's supposed to be finished and then handed over to the Aerospace Industry Corporation of China (AICC).
Also per Antonov's Facebook page: "The first stage of this interaction consists in construction of the second modernized AN-225 Mriya at ANTONOV Company and delivery of this aircraft to AICC."

seabosdca wrote:
I can't imagine what anyone would need with more than two frames, especially now that the 747-8 has brought payload capacity of "normal" aircraft up to 140 t.

Well, the An-225 adds another 60 to 100t to that payload :-)
Anyway, I think the comparison 747-8 vs An-124/-225 isn't really valid. I don't think anybody is thinking of operating a fleet of An-124/-225 for parcels, packages, boxes of fruit, etc.
The Antonovs are both used particularly for heavy/oversized payloads and/or missions to areas with deficient infrastructure, i.e. rough runways and limited/no ground handling equipment. As has been pointed out, you can simply drive a lorry/tank/crane onto the Antonovs with no additional equipment required at all.
In that oversized/very heavy category (which ironically isn't the biggest niche), the Antonovs really are the only game in town, to be honest.

seabosdca wrote:
These are astonishingly expensive to operate and only need to be brought in when there is NO other option to move something that weighs between 150 and 240 t (the 140-150 range is covered by the An-124). If you can take it apart, it'll be cheaper to take it apart and move it with 747s or 777s. If you can wait a few weeks, it'll be way cheaper to ship it by sea.

You're right that if a regular cargo plane will do, that's the better (as in: cheaper) option. Shipping by sea isn't always an option, though. As has been pointed out, there are a lot of regions on this planet - large parts of Africa, Russia and China come to mind - that are landlocked with road/rail infrastructure insufficient to transport large/heavy items.

Dutchy wrote:
That would be something. An AN225NEO perhaps? Western engines, western electronics. Two crew cockpit, instead of a zillion. How big would the marked be, 25 tops?

A NEO treatment would be compulsory I think. Unless you're completely out of your mind you don't start building a production line for a plane (or even finish an existing frame that's barely more than a hull) in 2016/17 with notoriously thirsty 1980s Soviet era engines strapped to the wings.
Seeing a market of 25 An-225 frames is incredibly optimistic, though. I'd say 10 tops, assuming Russia and China want to do a lot of large infrastructure projects in the coming years. That's already taking into the account the original An-225 first flew in 1988 - it'll be 30 before long, and maintenance isn't likely to get any cheaper with age (although it's probably low on hours/cycles).

soyuz wrote:
The reality is that even just the sole example spends much of its time patiently waiting on the ground in Kiev. It is a super niche aircraft.

In fairness, having a fleet usually helps getting utilisation up and costs down as well. Based in Kiev, a lot of the globe is semi-reachable, as it requires time-consuming and costly repositioning flights before any loading can begin.


As for the project itself: Clearly a case of "believe it when I see it". Thanks to political tensions between Russia and Ukraine, lack of funding, plus possibly a certain lack of organisational skills, we've over the years had many announcements of An-124 supposedly due to be restarted, the second An-225 to be completed, etc.
What gives me some hope is that the first part of the collaboration calls for the completion of the second frame at Antonov's facilities. That's still going to be incredibly expensive and time-consuming. But still a lot more achievable than starting a production line.

Even with this, I'd expect Russia to try and prevent it from happening as the An-124/-225 was originally a Soviet project. Russia will - as they have before - try to argue that Ukraine can't license production without getting Russia on board as well. I believe that happened even before the annexion of Crimea, i.e. before the current tensions between the two countries.
I'm also wondering why you'd want an An-225 production line. A combined An-124/-225 production line would make much more sense IMHO. The An-225 is "just" a heavily modified An-124 anyway.

By the way - if the second An-225 does get finished, would this be the longest time an unfinished frame has been mothballed and eventually gets completed after all? If it's finished in 2019 we're looking at about 28 years I think...
 
VSMUT
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Sep 04, 2016 2:56 pm

anfromme wrote:
By the way - if the second An-225 does get finished, would this be the longest time an unfinished frame has been mothballed and eventually gets completed after all? If it's finished in 2019 we're looking at about 28 years I think...


The Ukrainians and Russians have been completing a number of unfinished frames over the years. A "new" Il-62 delivered to Sudan in 2004, and a "new" Tu-154M was delivered in 2013. On top of that, there should be a bunch of An-26s, An-32s and Il-76s in various states of incompleteness. The An-32s have been selling at a slow pace to customers such as Iraq.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:34 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Ships take a long time, and can't go inland. Using Africa as an example again, sailing a cargo vessel to East Africa will take about 2 weeks. With West Africa you are looking at a full month at sea. Most of Africa is landlocked. There are 16 landlocked countries in Africa. Even among the nations that border the ocean, actual roads inland are few and often in a horrible condition.

The smaller Y-20 has it's own limitations. It can barely lift a fully equipped main battle tank, and there is a lot of equipment that is bigger and/or heavier than that. If the destination airfield only has a runway/no apron, then you can only get one aircraft in at a time.

You could also ask why the USAF finds a need to operate a fleet of 52x C-5Ms, despite having a fleet of 223 C-17s ;) I would bet that China needs it for the same reasons :)


I think there is a law of diminishing returns to consider. As you say, for every one C-5 there are over four C-17s, and the An-124 is bigger than C-5 and An-225 is bigger than An-124.

Both An-124 and An-225 are available for lease and are seen to be under-utilized.

It just seems wasteful to decide that starting a new An-225 production line is a good idea. It would seem much more sensible to buy up all the underutilized An-124s and modernize them to the fullest extent and if/when these become worn out then start a new production line for it.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:44 pm

Revelation wrote:
I think there is a law of diminishing returns to consider.


True, but China is growing massively, and there is a massive potential. They are rapidly growing their influence in Africa and many parts of Asia, building artificial islands and developing rural China.
The PLA has already requested 1000 Y-20s. Going by the USAF numbers (1 to 4), that a requirement for 250 An-225s :o I doubt it's going to be that much, but still, 20-30 could certainly be possible. Russia alone will have 20 An-124s by 2020, and Russia has a lot fewer overseas interests.

Revelation wrote:
Both An-124 and An-225 are available for lease and are seen to be under-utilized.


I have a few contacts who worked in the heavylift/outsize transport industry, although primarily with ships. While the An-124s and An-225s are currently underutilized, that is a result of the west not being involved in any major military deployments at the moment. That could change at any moment, and China certainly isn't interested in getting into a bidding war with NATO and the west for the few aircraft that are available.

Revelation wrote:
It just seems wasteful to decide that starting a new An-225 production line is a good idea. It would seem much more sensible to buy up all the underutilized An-124s and modernize them to the fullest extent and if/when these become worn out then start a new production line for it.


There are only 8 An-124s not currently in service/available for sale, and I doubt that will satisfy China. I can assure you that the other operators aren't willing to sell theirs. If I am not mistaken, the production line for the -124 is located in Russia, and the Russians are still using it.

:)
 
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Revelation
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:54 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I think there is a law of diminishing returns to consider.


True, but China is growing massively, and there is a massive potential. They are rapidly growing their influence in Africa and many parts of Asia, building artificial islands and developing rural China.
The PLA has already requested 1000 Y-20s. Going by the USAF numbers (1 to 4), that a requirement for 250 An-225s :o I doubt it's going to be that much, but still, 20-30 could certainly be possible. Russia alone will have 20 An-124s by 2020, and Russia has a lot fewer overseas interests.

Revelation wrote:
Both An-124 and An-225 are available for lease and are seen to be under-utilized.


I have a few contacts who worked in the heavylift/outsize transport industry, although primarily with ships. While the An-124s and An-225s are currently underutilized, that is a result of the west not being involved in any major military deployments at the moment. That could change at any moment, and China certainly isn't interested in getting into a bidding war with NATO and the west for the few aircraft that are available.

Revelation wrote:
It just seems wasteful to decide that starting a new An-225 production line is a good idea. It would seem much more sensible to buy up all the underutilized An-124s and modernize them to the fullest extent and if/when these become worn out then start a new production line for it.


There are only 8 An-124s not currently in service/available for sale, and I doubt that will satisfy China. I can assure you that the other operators aren't willing to sell theirs. If I am not mistaken, the production line for the -124 is located in Russia, and the Russians are still using it.

:)


Hard to argue what you are saying, but getting an An-225 production line up and running in China is going to be eye-wateringly expensive and risky too.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:21 pm

anfromme wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
That would be something. An AN225NEO perhaps? Western engines, western electronics. Two crew cockpit, instead of a zillion. How big would the marked be, 25 tops?

A NEO treatment would be compulsory I think. Unless you're completely out of your mind you don't start building a production line for a plane (or even finish an existing frame that's barely more than a hull) in 2016/17 with notoriously thirsty 1980s Soviet era engines strapped to the wings.
Seeing a market of 25 An-225 frames is incredibly optimistic, though. I'd say 10 tops, assuming Russia and China want to do a lot of large infrastructure projects in the coming years. That's already taking into the account the original An-225 first flew in 1988 - it'll be 30 before long, and maintenance isn't likely to get any cheaper with age (although it's probably low on hours/cycles).


Well, if this project would be realized, then I suspect the Chinese Air Force would take 10-13 a/c. So then you are half there of the 25 aircraft.
 
texl1649
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:25 pm

It would be funny indeed if the Russians/Ukrainians pull off an AN225NEO, but of course Boeing remains steadfast that the 757 is dead due to industrial atrophy/loss of tooling etc.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:29 pm

texl1649 wrote:
It would be funny indeed if the Russians/Ukrainians pull off an AN225NEO, but of course Boeing remains steadfast that the 757 is dead due to industrial atrophy/loss of tooling etc.


You do realize Boeing has a responsibility to make a profit if not a good or great return, whereas the Russian and Chinese governments do not, right?
 
YVRLTN
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:11 am

soyuz wrote:
When something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. I think every aircraft enthusiast would love to see a second Mriya in the skies. The reality is that even just the sole example spends much of its time patiently waiting on the ground in Kiev. It is a super niche aircraft. To say that this production resumption contract is ambitious is an understatement. I'd love to see the 2nd one built. Perhaps with updated avionics and a pair of GE90-115s hanging from each wing instead of 6 of the old D-18Ts. (One can dream). But given Antonov's recent track record (multiple failed talks of 124 production resumption, the fiasco that is the AN70), Ukraine's current situation, the issue of Russian components and intellectual property with respect to the Mriya and Ruslan aircraft, I will eat my hat if this contract doesn't fizzle out into oblivion. Gladly.
In answer to a question about the ex-Polet Ruslans, a couple have gone to Volga-Dnepr, I'm not sure about the rest. There is a reasonably up to date database on russianplanes.net
I heard at least one is going to Silk Way - Polet only had 4 IIRC so that is probably all of them accounted for.

We have to remember we are currently in an air cargo down turn and the particularly the outsize cargo market is very soft, mainly due to the poor O&G industry. These things used to be regulars at IAH for example. It will rebound, but does not seem to be doing so quickly. Even the outsize ocean vessel charter market and regular breakbulk is very quiet. 2018 should see some recovery "market forecasters" say.

Anyway, I have some experience with the AN124 (and IL76) and I have used them, not necessarily for their lifting capacity, but their self sufficiency. The 747-8 is a marvel BUT the hold volume is all well and good if you can access it - access is horrible even with the nose loader as the cockpit and therefore upper deck stay in place plus you have a high fixed floor as it takes underbelly freight just like the pax version. Good luck getting anything of any real size through that opening. Need for ground infrastructure is also an issue. I operated into a medium sized international airport in Mexico and they did not have ground equipment and therefore could not handle a 747 (or MD11 or any widebody). We looked at sending the necessary equipment with the cargo, but they could not unload those either. The Herc was way too small, so had to call in the Russians who are self sufficient - just backed flat decks up the ramp of the plane and it used it own crane to load them.

As to costs, it really depends where the aircraft has to be repositioned in from and how much weight is actually on board - still range is not too bad on the 124, but weight causes high fuel burn. Using the requested example SFO - HKG, just a couple of years back chances are there would be one or three in IAH and it would not be a big deal to repo one up to SFO, but not so much today. I would say $1.75m for a 124 on this route based on a IAH repo and one fuel stop. I have seen the 124 do YVR - SVG and also NGO nonstop with a light load of helicopters, but anywhere near capacity SFO - HKG it would probably need two stops therefore increasing cost. The 225 is worse in this regard, but I have no personal experience with it. Bearing in mind today it would probably have to come from Ukraine first, my guess would be $2.5m. A 748 would probably be $1-1.25m, maybe less at non peak season on this specific routing if CX could free up one of their machines from a regular LAX routing. Of course it would need no fuel stop.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Sep 05, 2016 2:31 am

WIederling wrote:
[*] The current administration aided by their US "friends" is a magnitude more corrupt than the
previous set of grafters.


No need for this comment. Plenty of finger pointing to do on this and none of it relevant to aviation.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:18 am

Revelation wrote:
Hard to argue what you are saying, but getting an An-225 production line up and running in China is going to be eye-wateringly expensive and risky too.


Truth, but assuming China is dead set in it's intentions of building an airlifter of this size (C-5/An-124/An-225), is it really going to be that more expensive to build the An-225 over the An-124?

:)
 
WIederling
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:57 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
WIederling wrote:
[*] The current administration aided by their US "friends" is a magnitude more corrupt than the
previous set of grafters.


No need for this comment. Plenty of finger pointing to do on this and none of it relevant to aviation.


Wrong. The Ukraine transitioning to a failed state is accelerating.
There will be no productive cooperation with any Ukrainian companies renamed remains. ( IMHO never ).
You can buy gutted parts.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:50 am

I don't think people realize that there are absolutely zero heavy military cargo airplanes in production right now, except the Antonon AN-124. The C-5 is no longer produced, the 747-8F is no military transport. A400, C-130, C-17 (out of production) and other military cargo planes are much smaller. The already finished AN-225 is busy 24/7/365. Finishing the 2nd AN-225 shouldn't be impossible considering the aircraft and systems is based on the in-production AN-124. Buying second hand C-5s and C-17s is a no go for most regimes who would be interested in this type of airplane. And I'm sure Volga-Dnepr and other civilian freighter airlines would take an interest in these. Oversized heavy air cargo is their specialty.
 
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neutrino
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:51 pm

I would not discount China's potential requirement and desire for such an oversized airlifter; for both military and civil applications. The 225 would have the advantage, over the 124, of greater fuselage length for extra long loads and its designed external hardpoints makes it able to transport really bulky payloads of up to 200,000 kg and 70 metre long (theoretically even the entire AN-124 or non-dash8 747 fuselage less wings & empennages can be piggybacked). Some reports indicate two planned assembly lines; in Sichuan and Guizhou provinces. If true and to fruition, I speculate that each could produce a different version ie of the existing flying example with twin-tail and of the second currently incomplete model with single vertical stabilizer & rear loading ramp.
Don't underestimate China's need and capability to massively grow its transportation network and hardware. Just look at its HSR which had grown from zero to 20,000 km within a decade. That's more than the combined total of the rest of the world, and those rail lines are set to further double to 40,000 km in another decade.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:48 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
I don't think people realize that there are absolutely zero heavy military cargo airplanes in production right now, except the Antonon AN-124. The C-5 is no longer produced, the 747-8F is no military transport. A400, C-130, C-17 (out of production) and other military cargo planes are much smaller. The already finished AN-225 is busy 24/7/365. Finishing the 2nd AN-225 shouldn't be impossible considering the aircraft and systems is based on the in-production AN-124. Buying second hand C-5s and C-17s is a no go for most regimes who would be interested in this type of airplane. And I'm sure Volga-Dnepr and other civilian freighter airlines would take an interest in these. Oversized heavy air cargo is their specialty.


Is it a true statement to say An-124 is in production? I looked around for some proof of that and could not find any. I've read of agreements signed to restart production but also have read the events in Ukraine have prevented production. I've also read that Russian content is required, yet this agreement was between Ukraine and China. It's all murky to me. We had our own a.net thread at viewtopic.php?t=552573 which didn't clarify things at all.

https://www.planespotters.net/productio ... nov/An-124 has a listing of airframes with recent delivery dates, but all the airframes with recent dates are frames built decades ago and then brought up to An-124-100 standard.

Bottom line to me is I don't think it's true to say An-124 is currently in production, and that An-225 is busy 24x7x365. Feel free to prove otherwise.

That doesn't mean that China will not have its own An-225 production line some day, but it does mean that it will be very difficult for it to get one running any time soon.

I'm also dubious that the existing An-225 unfinished frame can be finished any time soon either.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Sep 05, 2016 2:48 pm

WIederling wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
WIederling wrote:
[*] The current administration aided by their US "friends" is a magnitude more corrupt than the
previous set of grafters.


No need for this comment. Plenty of finger pointing to do on this and none of it relevant to aviation.


Wrong. The Ukraine transitioning to a failed state is accelerating.
There will be no productive cooperation with any Ukrainian companies renamed remains. ( IMHO never ).
You can buy gutted parts.


I was referring to your blaming of the US. Plenty of guilty countries in the mess that is the Ukraine. And really the commentary isn't useful.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:27 pm

Revelation wrote:
Is it a true statement to say An-124 is in production? I looked around for some proof of that and could not find any. I've read of agreements signed to restart production but also have read the events in Ukraine have prevented production.


Production did restart in Russia, somewhere between 2009 and 2014. The events in Ukraine put a stop to it shortly thereafter. It is officially just put on hold for the time being, but probably wont be restarted. I doubt they got very far, probably just made a few parts that could be reused as spares in the active fleet.

Currently Russia seems to be looking at a new airlifter to replace the An-124, possibly using the original competing design from Ilyushin.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Wed Sep 07, 2016 5:19 pm

Unless the Chinese military wants some I cannot see any demand beyond maybe the 1 partially built one, and that is questionable based on the fact that the existing one spends most of its time on the ground. There certainly is no business case for building it, let alone improving it. So I expect that if this deal actually happens the Chinese military does indeed want it.
 
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c933103
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Mar 05, 2017 12:01 am

Mumrik wrote:
Don't know if it's alreaddy discussed here but could not find anything on this topic.

Yes the old heavy 6 engines beast will get a new shot at life with a production line planed to open in China.

ch-aviation report that the second Mriya frame will be completed and later a new production line will open in China under license from Antonov.

Article:
http://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/ ... n-in-china

The correct name of the entity it signed the deal is should be "Airspace Industry Corporation of China" with their press release here http://en.chinaairspace.com/news/gongsixinwen/251.html . And somehow the company's capital stock is only 1300USD with main focus being general aviation, airport construction, environmental technology, electronic and import/export trades according to investigation by Chinese media http://business.sohu.com/20160901/n467090283.shtml .
Chinese state media Global TImes have interviewed Ukrainian ambassidoe to China for this which probably indicated it is acknowledged by both deapite the interview focus more on Ukrainian agriculture than An225
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:00 pm

Don't know as to the economics, but the fleet of Antonovs is obviously a useful world resource. If having one of the 225s is really useful having a backup is too.
 
jagraham
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Fri Jul 28, 2017 8:45 pm

Revelation wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I think there is a law of diminishing returns to consider.


True, but China is growing massively, and there is a massive potential. They are rapidly growing their influence in Africa and many parts of Asia, building artificial islands and developing rural China.
The PLA has already requested 1000 Y-20s. Going by the USAF numbers (1 to 4), that a requirement for 250 An-225s :o I doubt it's going to be that much, but still, 20-30 could certainly be possible. Russia alone will have 20 An-124s by 2020, and Russia has a lot fewer overseas interests.

Revelation wrote:
Both An-124 and An-225 are available for lease and are seen to be under-utilized.


I have a few contacts who worked in the heavylift/outsize transport industry, although primarily with ships. While the An-124s and An-225s are currently underutilized, that is a result of the west not being involved in any major military deployments at the moment. That could change at any moment, and China certainly isn't interested in getting into a bidding war with NATO and the west for the few aircraft that are available.

Revelation wrote:
It just seems wasteful to decide that starting a new An-225 production line is a good idea. It would seem much more sensible to buy up all the underutilized An-124s and modernize them to the fullest extent and if/when these become worn out then start a new production line for it.


There are only 8 An-124s not currently in service/available for sale, and I doubt that will satisfy China. I can assure you that the other operators aren't willing to sell theirs. If I am not mistaken, the production line for the -124 is located in Russia, and the Russians are still using it.

:)


Hard to argue what you are saying, but getting an An-225 production line up and running in China is going to be eye-wateringly expensive and risky too.



Remember the Varyag (now Liaoning)!
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sat Jul 29, 2017 12:18 am

itisi wrote:
Here we go with the anti China comments.... Let's see what happens and keep the stupid comments quiet.

Russia and China have built plenty of planes together in the past.


Could you please offer plenty of examples of planes they built together in the past.

I believe you're wrong.
 
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c933103
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sat Jul 29, 2017 12:37 am

Various Chinese Reports citing a report from vpk-news.ru earlier this week, claiming that:
- 2000 Antonov employees and their families will settle in a indystrial zone in Pucheng County, Shaanxi which would construct test production line for An-225 as well as production line for An-124-100.
- The report further point out that PLA have shown their interest in An-70, and China is also going to cooperate with Ukraine in producing An-74, An-132, An-158, and An-178.
- It is also claimed the D-18T engine will also be manufacturered in China.
- Other than those aircrafts, engines like AI-225K-25F, AI-25TLK, D-27, D-436, D-136, AI-136T, TV3-117VMA-SBM1V, MS-500V and etc. are also apparently part of the cooperation, and many of them supports many aircrafts that are in service or under R&D like the D-27 will be the engine for Y-30.
- It is said that officials from Ukraine have visited industrial parks in Shaanxi and Sichuan that are dedicated for the project of An-124/225 and D-18T
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sat Jul 29, 2017 12:51 am

kitplane01 wrote:
itisi wrote:
Here we go with the anti China comments.... Let's see what happens and keep the stupid comments quiet.

Russia and China have built plenty of planes together in the past.


Could you please offer plenty of examples of planes they built together in the past.

I believe you're wrong.

Not trying to derail the topic, but we've got Mig-17 and J-5, Mig-19 and J-6, Mig-21 and J-7, Su-27 and J-11 (although the PRC developed its own upgrades later on), and the list goes on....
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:35 am

eamondzhang wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
itisi wrote:
Here we go with the anti China comments.... Let's see what happens and keep the stupid comments quiet.

Russia and China have built plenty of planes together in the past.


Could you please offer plenty of examples of planes they built together in the past.

I believe you're wrong.

Not trying to derail the topic, but we've got Mig-17 and J-5, Mig-19 and J-6, Mig-21 and J-7, Su-27 and J-11 (although the PRC developed its own upgrades later on), and the list goes on....


The J-5 was built using Soviet plans, but without Soviet help because the Sino-Soviet split had occurred. The J-7 was not a matter of joint production so much as reverse engineering. The J-6 and J-11 were built with Russian help.

Those are a long time ago, using different technology, and clearly military. This is really not the same thing as joint production of a civilian aircraft.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sat Jul 29, 2017 3:44 am

kitplane01 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

Could you please offer plenty of examples of planes they built together in the past.

I believe you're wrong.

Not trying to derail the topic, but we've got Mig-17 and J-5, Mig-19 and J-6, Mig-21 and J-7, Su-27 and J-11 (although the PRC developed its own upgrades later on), and the list goes on....


The J-5 was built using Soviet plans, but without Soviet help because the Sino-Soviet split had occurred. The J-7 was not a matter of joint production so much as reverse engineering. The J-6 and J-11 were built with Russian help.

Those are a long time ago, using different technology, and clearly military. This is really not the same thing as joint production of a civilian aircraft.

So? It still fits "China and Russia built planes together" category. And that's where you asked for examples.

And in addition to Russia, China has built planes together with France (AS365 and SA321) and even the USA (the good old Maddogs).
 
soyuz
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:47 am

JetBuddy wrote:
I don't think people realize that there are absolutely zero heavy military cargo airplanes in production right now, except the Antonon AN-124. The C-5 is no longer produced, the 747-8F is no military transport. A400, C-130, C-17 (out of production) and other military cargo planes are much smaller. The already finished AN-225 is busy 24/7/365. Finishing the 2nd AN-225 shouldn't be impossible considering the aircraft and systems is based on the in-production AN-124. Buying second hand C-5s and C-17s is a no go for most regimes who would be interested in this type of airplane. And I'm sure Volga-Dnepr and other civilian freighter airlines would take an interest in these. Oversized heavy air cargo is their specialty.


Are you kidding?? Utilised 24/7/365??? The 225 has a handful of revenue flights in a year. So much so that FR24 make a big deal out of every time the thing actually flies. The vastly massively overwhelming majority of its time is spent parked at Kiev. I wish it were as you say but it simply isn't.

As an aside, I just read on the Kremlin based RT that Antonov is being liquidated. Am taking it with a pinch of salt given the source, but wouldn't be surprised if it were true.
 
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c933103
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:13 am

soyuz wrote:
As an aside, I just read on the Kremlin based RT that Antonov is being liquidated. Am taking it with a pinch of salt given the source, but wouldn't be surprised if it were true.
I thought it would be part oof the earlier announced process to absorb Antonov into Ukraine government?
 
VSMUT
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:39 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
itisi wrote:
Here we go with the anti China comments.... Let's see what happens and keep the stupid comments quiet.

Russia and China have built plenty of planes together in the past.


Could you please offer plenty of examples of planes they built together in the past.

I believe you're wrong.


The Su-27 is license produced as the J-11. Additional unsanctioned developments have since sprung from that project.
The Mi-8/17 is manufactured under license in China since 2008.
By the accounts of Kamov, but not confirmed by China, the Z-10 attack helicopter.
The CJ-7/Yak-152 project is developed by Russia and China in cooperation.
The L-15 bears some resemblance to the Yak-130, suggesting that some assistance may have been offered by Russia at some point.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:07 am

32andBelow wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I think we'll see a new Spruce Goose before we see a new Sino-Ukranian-Russian AN-225.

To me it seems to be an exercise in vanity and an enormous waste of resources.

Why not put your energy into building something the world really needs?


This is obviously a military project. It will allow China to ferry massive amounts of equipment to its offshore airbases in the South China Sea, or help keep various African clients in line. It has the potential to airlift 5 main battle tanks into Africa in less than a day. Imagine the power projection a fleet of just 10 of these will allow China to do. This fits perfectly in line with all the aircraft carriers, LPDs and 15.000 ton coast guard cutters China is so busy building, and Chinese policy towards resource rich, underdeveloped nations in general.

iamlucky13 wrote:
I suppose another alternative possibility is the Chinese military has decided they need a few, but I struggle to think for what that An-124's couldn't handle.


True, but China doesn't have any An-124's. The options available for China are as follows:

Develop it's own very large airlifter at great expense.
Join the Russian attempt at restarting An-124 production.
Buy some worn out An-124s with limited lifespan.
Limit itself to the Il-76/C-17 sized Y-20.
Buy the An-225 from Ukraine for cheap, along with everything needed to build more aircraft at a later point.

The An-225 may very well be the most affordable and viable (in terms of longevity) project of those.

:)

Why would you spend billions for this? You can fly several smaller planes at the same time, or just put massive things on a ship.

I agree this is a military project. The plane is to move tanks, missiles, or other equipment to contain conflict within the Chinese influence area. I could be those remote islands, it could be into Tibet or the China/India boarder.

This is spending billions to be able to send reactionary forces minimally prepared airstrips. The AN-225 has a hot/high capability that will be incredible in suppressing conflict in Tibet or mountain regions anywhere China needs to quickly deploy forces, including at some of the highest altitude regions in the world.

The AN-225 provides a capability to China that should really scare their Asian opposition. While the AN-225 consumes extra resources to fly, the reality is that it allows deploying quick reaction forces like no other airframe as long as there are dozens of them active.

Oh, they'll carry locomotives to remote locations to open new transport links. The AN-225s will carry oil drilling equipment, mining equipment, and other machinery that is needed in poor access regions.

But mostly we're discussing a quick response military capability.

Lightsaber
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:11 am

VSMUT wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
itisi wrote:
Here we go with the anti China comments.... Let's see what happens and keep the stupid comments quiet.

Russia and China have built plenty of planes together in the past.


Could you please offer plenty of examples of planes they built together in the past.

I believe you're wrong.


The Su-27 is license produced as the J-11. Additional unsanctioned developments have since sprung from that project.
The Mi-8/17 is manufactured under license in China since 2008.
By the accounts of Kamov, but not confirmed by China, the Z-10 attack helicopter.
The CJ-7/Yak-152 project is developed by Russia and China in cooperation.
The L-15 bears some resemblance to the Yak-130, suggesting that some assistance may have been offered by Russia at some point.


So try and think of the *successful* joint programs. In this case "successful" means that both China and Russia are happy with the outcome.

Su-27 - China develops unlicensed version ripping off Russia
Mi-8 - Probably a successful program
Z-10 - China won't even say it's a joint program
L-15 - Probably a successful program
Yak-18/CJ-5/6/7 - Probably a successful program
IL-76/Y-20 - China develops unlicensed version ripping off Russia

Also, some fighters from the early 50s/60s.

There are some successful joint ventures between china and russia. The odds are not great though.
 
WIederling
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:33 am

seabosdca wrote:
I can't imagine what anyone would need with more than two frames, especially now that the 747-8 has brought payload capacity of "normal" aircraft up to 140 t.


Not the same kind of transport problem domain. 747 of any kind don't compete there.

very large payload + accessible cross section width and height + self loading capabilities
for a single overweight/oversized item.
all that together make the case for the AN225 ( or AN124 at that, same cross section )

going for excess volume you could just use an Airbus Beluga ( STE, XL )
 
WIederling
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:01 am

Revelation wrote:
texl1649 wrote:
It would be funny indeed if the Russians/Ukrainians pull off an AN225NEO, but of course Boeing remains steadfast that the 757 is dead due to industrial atrophy/loss of tooling etc.


You do realize Boeing has a responsibility to make a profit if not a good or great return, whereas the Russian and Chinese governments do not, right?


governments that want to survive have to act under a similar rule set.

The difference is short term profit ( quite often at cost to the host society ) versus long term advance for a society.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:19 am

kitplane01 wrote:
IL-76/Y-20 - China develops unlicensed version ripping off Russia


They aren't related, why bring it up?
 
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Richard28
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:56 pm

WIederling wrote:

governments that want to survive have to act under a similar rule set.

The difference is short term profit ( quite often at cost to the host society ) versus long term advance for a society.


Absolutely, a good example of this is the Concorde program, which cost vast sums to U.K. and France, but that investment was the forerunner to Airbus, which of course has been very successful and helped those societies through employment and skills.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:00 pm

A388 wrote:
Interesting, I wonder which cargo airline is interested in this beast of a cargo aircraft. The AN225 is definitely intended for very big, heavy and oversized cargo as already pointed out so that market is very small in my opinion. Even so, bring it on!!! A388


ICBM's for North Korea? :stirthepot:
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:48 am

VSMUT wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
IL-76/Y-20 - China develops unlicensed version ripping off Russia


They aren't related, why bring it up?


"and the Ilyushin Il-76, on which the Y-20 is based". http://gizmodo.com/5979175/in-communist ... knock-offs

They are clearly not copies. But they seem related. If I was Ilyushin, I might be annoyed that the Chinese make the Y-20 after buying the Il-76.

Image
 
VSMUT
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:04 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
They are clearly not copies. But they seem related. If I was Ilyushin, I might be annoyed that the Chinese make the Y-20 after buying the Il-76.


They "seem related"? They don't even look anything like each other! The basic layout is for obvious reasons quite similar (high wings with underslung engines), but then you can just as well argue that it "seems related" to the C-17, C-141, An-22 and C-5 as well. The only thing the Y-20 and Il-76 have in common is the engines.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:36 pm

Was hoping we'd see the PAK-TA instead.

Image
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:30 am

VSMUT wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
They are clearly not copies. But they seem related. If I was Ilyushin, I might be annoyed that the Chinese make the Y-20 after buying the Il-76.


They "seem related"? They don't even look anything like each other! The basic layout is for obvious reasons quite similar (high wings with underslung engines), but then you can just as well argue that it "seems related" to the C-17, C-141, An-22 and C-5 as well. The only thing the Y-20 and Il-76 have in common is the engines.


Similar wing sweep and similar flaps, although the Y-20 seems to have carried the same basic wing shape out to a slightly longer span - It looks far more like an IL-76 than any of the other aircraft in that list.

I'm under the impression the IL-76 was their starting point, based on which they created their own fuselage, and then designed their own wing based on an outer mold line and basic structural layout that they knew worked and would be compatible with engines currently available.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Antonov 225 Mriya, production resumption

Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:09 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
Similar wing sweep and similar flaps,


The Y-20 has slightly more sweep than the Il-76, and the trailing edge is quite different. There is quite a way from something looking superficially similar (but not being identical) to actually being developed from a certain aircraft. Is the wing profile even the same? That part is significantly more important than wing sweep and similar flaps.

iamlucky13 wrote:
would be compatible with engines currently available.


The current engines are only temporary until they get their own engines ready. They did the same with the Y-10 back in the day (an aircraft that is also not a copy of the 707).

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