As a lifelong Fresno Rssident, one of the biggest things this city has always complained about is the amount of air service compared to the city size. As the 5th biggest city in the state and the metro area a little over 1 million people it seems like we should have more airlines or more destinations. For years eeryone wanted Southwest and maybe still do, I persoanlly would like to see Spirit come to town as a ULCC. We have G4 and theyre very popular here, but the only fly to LAS and Phoeniz Mesa. What are your thoughts on possible expansion at FAT???

It will more than likely be Southwest since they want to remain the dominant carrier in California

I lived in Fresno from 1979 to 1985 and during that Fresno was served by PSA, Hughes Airwest (then Republic), United and Western and probably by others that I can not remember. United had a pretty good presence in FAT with mainline flights to SFO, DEN and ORD but once deregulation of the airlines went into effect service to/from Fresno diminished.

Unfortunately Fresno and the Fresno metro area is not an affluent area and I believe that is the prime reason why air service was reduced back in the 80s and has never made a comeback. I am sure all of the major airlines have studied the demographics and incomes of the Fresno metro area and if they had been more favorable, airlines like SW and NK would have been in Fresno long ago. Don't take this personal as I loved living in Fresno and thought it was a great city and area.

Oh no offense taken, I remember being young and seeing all those airlines serving fresno. My grandpa worked at PSA then US Air for years as and engine inspector so I flew the FAT to SAn a tone in my youth. The farm workers and high Hispanic population def keeps the average per capita income down but Fresno has also started having a lot of walth come into the area so hopefully we can see some expansion of air service. We are the largest city in America without SW service, but since they are no longer low cost, I'd love to see spirit come in and have a few new destinations.

CAflyer559 wrote:

Oh no offense taken, I remember being young and seeing all those airlines serving fresno. My grandpa worked at PSA then US Air for years as and engine inspector so I flew the FAT to SAn a tone in my youth. The farm workers and high Hispanic population def keeps the average per capita income down but Fresno has also started having a lot of walth come into the area so hopefully we can see some expansion of air service. We are the largest city in America without SW service, but since they are no longer low cost, I'd love to see spirit come in and have a few new destinations.

Since Spirit is apparently changing their business direction somewhat (concentrating more on smaller cities than previously) perhaps you will get your wish. Of course NK only serves 3 cities in the Golden State and only 7 U.S. cities west of the Rockies so they are not huge in the far west. But that could change...

Also, with limited service, FAT really needs more connections to major hubs I think, so flyers could get to almost anywhere in the country or the world. But there might be some specific markets from Fresno that might have enough business for the likes of Spirit's more point-to-point type of network. You'd have to really think about which destinations in the U.S. would actually have enough O&D traffic for full-sized jets to serve nonstop (probably with few connecting pax.)

WN, OTOH, could fly from FAT to LAS, PHX, DEN and perhaps HOU and/or MDW (all hubs), and get pax to anywhere in their network.

I must say that I'm very happy to see FAT-SAN doing well on AS. With 2 daily, year-round flights now, and a third one already added seasonally, this, even though it's intra-state service, is a step in the right direction for Fresno growth. Some are thinking FAT-SNA might be a future add; I give that about a 50-50 chance of happening.

bb

Yes, I have flown AS from FAT to SAn and liked it very much, quick and easy and will be flying it again after the fitst of the year on the new E175. If AS could add FAT to HNL daily or even a few times a week, I think they'd have a huge winner on thier hands. WhenAllegiant was foing it all the flights were full. The people with money in Fresno reall want more nonstop to HNL and other tourists hot spots as well as the ORD, MSP, and ATL hubs back east. Keeping fingers crossed this airport admin can really start growing and marketing FAT as the go to central valley airport.

CAflyer559 wrote:

As the 5th biggest city in the state

I know that Fresno is a large city ... But I often smile when I think about anything other than the 2nd largest city in a state. Most states don't have many very large cities. Not in terms of size, but in terms of rank, here are other 5th largest cities:

Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Naperville, Illinois
Sparks, Nevada

SANFan wrote:

CAflyer559 wrote:

Also, with limited service, FAT really needs more connections to major hubs I think, so flyers could get to almost anywhere in the country or the world.

Where do (many, with means) FAT flyers want to go that can't be reached by existing services connecting in SFO, PHX, LAX, DEN, SEA, SLC, and DFW?

zrs70 wrote:

CAflyer559 wrote:

As the 5th biggest city in the state

I know that Fresno is a large city ... But I often smile when I think about anything other than the 2nd largest city in a state. Most states don't have many very large cities. Not in terms of size, but in terms of rank, here are other 5th largest cities:

Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Naperville, Illinois
Sparks, Nevada

Well, yeh, if you want to compare California to Alabama and Nevada that's the kind of 'insight' you'll get.

If not Delta, why not Sun Country to Minneapolis. It is sad. Once upon a time the smaller airports were busy. Now a lot of smaller airports are way less busy.

FAT's more lucrative incentive program appears to target WN and existing carriers. Earlier discussions with Spirit and Jet Blue went nowhere. G4's reliability is such that anyone will fill seats to LAS, but as to yield, that's another story. What FAT needs is more lift from the existing carriers. Flights are too full and a cancellation can leave you stranded for a day. Time for UA to return mainline to DEN and for AA to keep the 319s on a couple PHX flights for more than just the a Christmas holidays. AS seems to like FAT - anything is possible and HNL could work 3x/week - G4 showed the potential of the market. All that said, we might see another hike in GDL before anything else. Traffic is at an all time high as are the number of flights on Y4 and AM. So, if WN doesn't bite, I question whether anyone new will show anytime soon. I do hope we have seen the last of F9 as we don't need another quick start and quick exit. Stability is more important than short-term gains.

if DL would expand they would add ATL, a nice addition to the market.
plus i think MDW/ORD would work well.

whatusaid wrote:

Flights are too full and a cancellation can leave you stranded for a day.

Very few people would ever accept being stranded in Fresno for a whole day when they can rent a car and be at SJC, OAK, SFO, or SMF in less than three hours.

IPFreely wrote:

whatusaid wrote:

Flights are too full and a cancellation can leave you stranded for a day.

Very few people would ever accept being stranded in Fresno for a whole day when they can rent a car and be at SJC, OAK, SFO, or SMF in less than three hours.

Highly doubtful that one can drive from FAT to any of these airports in less than 3 hours.

dfwjim1 wrote:

IPFreely wrote:

whatusaid wrote:

Flights are too full and a cancellation can leave you stranded for a day.

Very few people would ever accept being stranded in Fresno for a whole day when they can rent a car and be at SJC, OAK, SFO, or SMF in less than three hours.

Highly doubtful that one can drive from FAT to any of these airports in less than 3 hours.

You can make SMF in three hours. BFL is far closer though and has UA & AA service

That being said, its not uncommon for passengers to get stranded in FAT recently. We have had a few cancellations on FAT-PHX recently that had no protection for a few days. There hasn't been much growth in the number of seats despite the FAT market growing decently.

usflyer123 wrote:

if DL would expand they would add ATL, a nice addition to the market.
plus i think MDW/ORD would work well.

Unlikely. SEA and MSP are way more likely expansion routes than ATL.

dfwjim1 wrote:

IPFreely wrote:

whatusaid wrote:

Flights are too full and a cancellation can leave you stranded for a day.

Very few people would ever accept being stranded in Fresno for a whole day when they can rent a car and be at SJC, OAK, SFO, or SMF in less than three hours.

Highly doubtful that one can drive from FAT to any of these airports in less than 3 hours.

OAK and SJC are easily within 3 hours during non-peak drive times.

CAflyer559 wrote:

As a lifelong Fresno Resident, one of the biggest things this city has always complained about is the amount of air service compared to the city size. As the 5th biggest city in the state and the metro area a little over 1 million people it seems like we should have more airlines or more destinations. For years everyone wanted Southwest and maybe still do, I personally would like to see Spirit come to town as a ULCC. We have G4 and they're very popular here, but the only fly to LAS and Phoenix Mesa. What are your thoughts on possible expansion at FAT???

Most Likely #1 and #2 Expansion Markets From FAT By Carrier, IMHO:

UA: 1. ORD 2. IAH
AA: 1. ORD 2. CLT (CLT is *highly unlikely*)
DL: 1. SEA 2. MSP
AS: 1. SNA 2. HNL
AM/Y4: 1. MLM 2. MEX
G4: Complete crap shoot, but SJD is certainly possible if the carrier expands to Mexico.
WN: 1. LAS 2. PHX
NK: 1. LAS

Most Likely New, Unserved Markets From FAT:

1. ORD on AA (maybe UA)
2. MLM on AM or Y4
3. SNA on AS
4. HNL on AS
5. MSP on DL

dc10lover wrote:

If not Delta, why not Sun Country to Minneapolis. It is sad. Once upon a time the smaller airports were busy. Now a lot of smaller airports are way less busy.

Sun Country has it's share of issues right now, and aside from a couple high-demand business markets, most of their flights are geared toward leisure. I'm sure there are people in Minneapolis who want to visit Yosemite, but there's barely enough traffic to sustain one flight per day to SFO during the winter, FAT isn't even on their radar right now (no pun intended).

Many smaller airports that used to have multiple airlines have been reduced to EAS service or no service at all. Even mid-sized cities like BFL have lost a majority of their service. Part of this is due to the trend toward larger aircraft (Fresno had service to almost every major CA airport during the days of the Metro and Jetstream, smaller cities like VIS and MCE had at least a couple flights to hubs), many cities just can't support 50+ seat jets (or need EAS to do it). Part has to do with airlines' trend toward maximizing load factors (often by reducing total seats). And part of it has to do with a greater willingness to drive to regional airports. FAT has actually been pretty lucky as it's retained almost all of its nonstop destinations and is still trending up on total PAX count. This is going to be another strong year despite the loss of Frontier and HNL service. Mexico service is doing particularly well, with as many as 3 flights per day (4 on some peak holiday travel days). While most expansion will probably come in the form of larger aircraft or increased frequency on current routes (mainline aircraft replacing RJs on some PHX and *maybe* DEN or SEA, and larger regional aircraft replacing smaller ones on other routes like SLC), it's highly possible Fresno will get at least one new route in the next couple of years.

This thread on FAT sounds similar to the situation in ELP, similar demographics and incomes, and decline in air service. The only thing keeping ELP going these days is Southwest which has an almost 50% share of the market there.

flyfresno wrote:

dc10lover wrote:

If not Delta, why not Sun Country to Minneapolis. It is sad. Once upon a time the smaller airports were busy. Now a lot of smaller airports are way less busy.

Sun Country has it's share of issues right now, and aside from a couple high-demand business markets, most of their flights are geared toward leisure. I'm sure there are people in Minneapolis who want to visit Yosemite, but there's barely enough traffic to sustain one flight per day to SFO during the winter, FAT isn't even on their radar right now (no pun intended).

FAT-MSP would also be impacted by VFR traffic among the Hmong population at both ends (the two largest concentrations of Hmongs in the US) and agribusiness connections such as Land O' Lakes and General Mills. Not large numbers but they are among traffic sources besides Yosemite.

PMUA787 wrote:

This thread on FAT sounds similar to the situation in ELP, similar demographics and incomes, and decline in air service. The only thing keeping ELP going these days is Southwest which has an almost 50% share of the market there.

FAT passenger counts are up 21% since 2009 while ELP passenger counts are down by approximately 10% since 2009. Fresno has seen in a reduction in flight frequencies due to the retirements of smaller aircraft but passenger growth has been strong.

FATFlyer wrote:

FAT-MSP would also be impacted by VFR traffic among the Hmong population at both ends (the two largest concentrations of Hmongs in the US) and agribusiness connections such as Land O' Lakes and General Mills. Not large numbers but they are among traffic sources besides Yosemite.

I wasn't trying to imply that there aren't any other ties between the Cities and Fresno, just that Sun Country is a primarily leisure carrier that focuses the majority of its marketing on O&D traffic at MSP and, as such, isn't coming to Fresno anytime soon (aside from flying the Bulldog football team). DAL would be a much better fit for this route.

CAflyer559 wrote:

Yes, I have flown AS from FAT to SAn and liked it very much, quick and easy and will be flying it again after the fitst of the year on the new E175. If AS could add FAT to HNL daily or even a few times a week, I think they'd have a huge winner on thier hands. WhenAllegiant was foing it all the flights were full. The people with money in Fresno reall want more nonstop to HNL and other tourists hot spots as well as the ORD, MSP, and ATL hubs back east. Keeping fingers crossed this airport admin can really start growing and marketing FAT as the go to central valley airport.

SAN flights are super full: the first flight that's not oversold for the rest of the week is Saturday night, and next week already has a few oversold flights (this during the slow season). AS could easily fly one of their San Diego RON's to FAT every night. In theory, this flight could even go FAT-SAN-HNL or FAT-SAN-OGG and back.

Also, with limited service, FAT really needs more connections to major hubs I think, so flyers could get to almost anywhere in the country or the world. But there might be some specific markets from Fresno that might have enough business for the likes of Spirit's more point-to-point type of network. You'd have to really think about which destinations in the U.S. would actually have enough O&D traffic for full-sized jets to serve nonstop (probably with few connecting pax.)

I'm not quite sure how many more "major" hubs you want to be connected to. Every hub in the western US is connected..Fly Fresno lays out a pretty good wish list in his response above.

The airport suffers from the same issues as "the Retail" want list...we have population, yes. But disposable income generally does not meet some specific market criteria, and the overall education level is a problem also. They go hand in hand. For the business we have , our service is pretty good. AA is adding a 319 to PHX in December in adddition to the recently upgraded and upgauged 738's for DFW replacing the MD80's after about 20-22 years of plying the route. Bet best are service to ORD someday (probably AA, but could be UA if they also came back with a mainline to DEN. DL could easily support a 717 or MD 90 to MSP . ATL I think is doubtful..just due to better opportunities there for other cites.

WN..Yeah, some day.!!.this has been kicked around for years, and it still looks 2-4 or so off in the distance..But my guess would be a mix of LAS/PHX and either MCI or maybe DEN.

Just my 2 cents !

"I'm not quite sure how many more "major" hubs you want to be connected to."

One more in the upper Midwest. The goal of this should be one-stop flight connectivity to almost every medium-sized and larger airport in the nation (as well as greater connectivity to Europe). Right now, there are still quite a few cities in the Midwest and Northeast (not to mention Canada) that are missing from that goal. DFW provides a lot of one-stop options to the South and lower Midwest (plus Latin American and the Caribbean), but if you want to go to GRB, FNT, SYR, MDT, or quite a few other mid-sized markets, you need to change planes twice. ORD would capture almost all of the missing mid-sized markets AND provide quite a few more one-stop flights to major European cities. MSP would be an option for this as well (although not nearly as good as ORD), but I don't think it's likely until the C-series comes on line.

Afternoon Fly Fresno..my comment was a tiny bit in jest...I too would like to see FAT connected to ORD or MSP, and have long said so on this forum. MSP would give DL a chance to rebuild a market share they once had after absorbing (err merging) Western. IF it were to be UA again after almost 30 years, as I said I would think they would put one mainline in to DEN also. I remember when the UA FAT-ORD was a 727--22 aircraft.. I don't recall if it was an ORD turnaround or routed down from SFO.

IF the connect the dots guys at AA are looking for a route to deploy a 319 on, this would be perfect. A 5-6Pm departure from ORD will capture all the east coast and mid west business traffic as well as European connections. Have the aircraft and crew RON and depart around 730..with a 100pm ish arrival.


Just my thoughts!

Tan Flyr wrote:

Afternoon Fly Fresno..my comment was a tiny bit in jest...I too would like to see FAT connected to ORD or MSP, and have long said so on this forum. MSP would give DL a chance to rebuild a market share they once had after absorbing (err merging) Western. IF it were to be UA again after almost 30 years, as I said I would think they would put one mainline in to DEN also. I remember when the UA FAT-ORD was a 727--22 aircraft.. I don't recall if it was an ORD turnaround or routed down from SFO.

IF the connect the dots guys at AA are looking for a route to deploy a 319 on, this would be perfect. A 5-6Pm departure from ORD will capture all the east coast and mid west business traffic as well as European connections. Have the aircraft and crew RON and depart around 730..with a 100pm ish arrival.


Just my thoughts!

Pretty good ones!

How about Surf Air? There's a high-tech incubator in Fresno by the name of Bitwise (http://bitwiseindustries.com) that's perfect to fill 2X or 3X daily to the Bay Area. They've been hitting my email with introductory flights to test out their membership-based travel.

That said, what we really need is UA or AA to ORD. It's pathetic that you can be on an AA flight from ORD to LAX with another 20 or more connecting pax to FAT. Start the flight and the traffic will come. It's already there. Just it's now all connecting traffic.

flyfresno wrote:

Most Likely #1 and #2 Expansion Markets From FAT By Carrier, IMHO:

UA: 1. ORD 2. IAH
AA: 1. ORD 2. CLT (CLT is *highly unlikely*)
DL: 1. SEA 2. MSP
AS: 1. SNA 2. HNL
AM/Y4: 1. MLM 2. MEX
G4: Complete crap shoot, but SJD is certainly possible if the carrier expands to Mexico.
WN: 1. LAS 2. PHX
NK: 1. LAS

Most Likely New, Unserved Markets From FAT:

1. ORD on AA (maybe UA)
2. MLM on AM or Y4
3. SNA on AS
4. HNL on AS
5. MSP on DL

MLM over MEX?

Tan Flyr wrote:

IF the connect the dots guys at AA are looking for a route to deploy a 319 on, this would be perfect. A 5-6Pm departure from ORD will capture all the east coast and mid west business traffic as well as European connections. Have the aircraft and crew RON and depart around 730..with a 100pm ish arrival

Probably easier for them to do a 6-8 PM departure and red-eye back to ORD. Keeps a plane in line to pick up a 8-9 AM departure out of ORD. The RON situation you suggested wouldn't be legal for the crew likely and is really a time waster for a once a day route when looking at aircraft utilization.

flyfresno wrote:

While most expansion will probably come in the form of larger aircraft or increased frequency on current routes (mainline aircraft replacing RJs on some PHX and *maybe* DEN or SEA, and larger regional aircraft replacing smaller ones on other routes like SLC), it's highly possible Fresno will get at least one new route in the next couple of years.

I wouldn't hold your breath on mainline aircraft replacing the RJs on PHX-FAT. Starting in November/December, everything will be on a 2-class RJ (no more 50 seaters) which ups capacity by about 5-6% in the market. The 319 presence in PHX is and will continue to decline and as a result markets like FAT are unlikely to see it more regularly. FAT could probably support another flight during flex in PHX (22:50 departure to FAT, 22:15 departure to PHX) but it all depends on the market.

12:30 PM
3:13 PM
1h 43m
Nonstop
AA 415 319-Airbus A319 Wifi on-board

Details, for FAT to PHX, departing at 12:30 PM Nonstop Seats


Starts Dec. 09

alasizon wrote:

MLM over MEX?

YES. After Jalisco, the majority of Mexican-Americans in the central valley hail from Michoacan. AM has already experimented with this route in the past, and it's probable they will bring it back again. MEX isn't out of the question, certainly provides more connections, and SMF recently traded a couple of their GDL flights for MEX, but I still think MLM is more likely.

alasizon wrote:

Probably easier for them to do a 6-8 PM departure and red-eye back to ORD. Keeps a plane in line to pick up a 8-9 AM departure out of ORD. The RON situation you suggested wouldn't be legal for the crew likely and is really a time waster for a once a day route when looking at aircraft utilization.

Many airlines have 30ish hour layovers (arrive late, spend the day, depart early) for pilots (FA rules are different) to avoid these conflicts. If they couldn't have the plane on the ground for 11+ hours to make sure the pilots get their 10 hours of rest, they could always do this. Both AA and UA tend to prioritize morning departures to ORD from the west coast over red-eyes. That's not to say they don't happen, but there are a lot of planes that sit in stations overnight.

alasizon wrote:

I wouldn't hold your breath on mainline aircraft replacing the RJs on PHX-FAT. Starting in November/December, everything will be on a 2-class RJ (no more 50 seaters) which ups capacity by about 5-6% in the market. The 319 presence in PHX is and will continue to decline and as a result markets like FAT are unlikely to see it more regularly. FAT could probably support another flight during flex in PHX (22:50 departure to FAT, 22:15 departure to PHX) but it all depends on the market.

As stated above, it already happens seasonally and is happening again. SkyWest's MX base plays a small part as to why the first flight is on an RJ (currently a -200 that gets checked in their hangar every RON), but that will change with the -200's going away at AA. Two flights per day on mainline supplemented by 1-2 RJs the rest of the day is certainly possible...but would likely jeopardize any hopes of ORD until fully developed.

With the number of CRJs that RON to decline as AS brings on the 175's in Nov, I wonder about the longevity of the OO base? The lease is through 2017 I believe. If it were to close I would think we'd see changes to both DEN and PHX. 4X and 5X RJs to DEN seems contrary to UA's public comments about upgaging and frequency cutbacks, such as seen at EUG.

whatusaid wrote:

With the number of CRJs that RON to decline as AS brings on the 175's in Nov, I wonder about the longevity of the OO base? The lease is through 2017 I believe. If it were to close I would think we'd see changes to both DEN and PHX. 4X and 5X RJs to DEN seems contrary to UA's public comments about upgaging and frequency cutbacks, such as seen at EUG.

As a MX base I would suspect it will stick around and perhaps even get converted to E175. As a pilot base, yes, the days are numbered.