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redzeppelin
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Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:36 am

http://www.sltrib.com/news/4348510-155/ ... fullpage=1

Few surprises here, but a good day for SLC fans.
Highlights:
-DL fully supportive of SLC terminal replacement project.
-MIA will start soon.
-Growth to Latin America is expected after AeroMexico deal is done.
-LHR flight was enabled by VS deal.
-Additional Europe flights possible as LHR and AMS mature.
-CS100 will be flying from SLC.
-"West of the Mississippi is where we see the greatest growth opportunities in our business"
-"We've grown 60 percent over the past five years" in number of seats sold on flights to and from Salt Lake City, he said. "That's a very large number. There's no reason to think we can't continue to grow and expand here."
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:44 am

redzeppelin wrote:
-Additional Europe flights possible as LHR and AMS mature.

Be interesting to see where that is. Everything from SLC that they currently fly is hub-hub.

Perhaps a summer-seasonal FCO?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:55 am

Europe is pretty well covered , I would think anything new is summer only and not next summer. Lhr, 2x ams, and cdg with one stop connections to everywhere.

I bet we see more Mexico pretty soon

Aspen is another route coming back out west for slc Would love to see Durango Colorado also come back.
 
dc10lover
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:04 am

Maybe Delta Connection can have flights to Wenatchee, Washington from Salt Lake City.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:18 am

redzeppelin wrote:
-"West of the Mississippi is where we see the greatest growth opportunities in our business"

No surprise, though it'll be interesting to see the breakdown of how it's distributed.

I'm guessing that the majority of that will come from LAX and SEA, with SLC probably at the lower end.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
holeham
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:06 am

I still don't see how they don't fly RT TPA/SLC. TPA is one of their larger stations and it's like they don't even care to make an effort there.
 
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787fan8
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:18 pm

What are SLC's chances of landing a non-stop flight to Asia?
Atlanta is an incredibly cool city - Andrew Lincoln

Future Auburn graduate
 
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11725Flyer
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:18 pm

holeham wrote:
I still don't see how they don't fly RT TPA/SLC. TPA is one of their larger stations and it's like they don't even care to make an effort there.


Couldn't agree more. I used to take that flight on a regular basis, and it was always pretty full. And yes, I get it that a full flight doesn't equal a profitable flight. But, with fuel prices where they are right now, this should be a no-brainer.
 
klm617
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:01 pm

11725Flyer wrote:
holeham wrote:
I still don't see how they don't fly RT TPA/SLC. TPA is one of their larger stations and it's like they don't even care to make an effort there.


Couldn't agree more. I used to take that flight on a regular basis, and it was always pretty full. And yes, I get it that a full flight doesn't equal a profitable flight. But, with fuel prices where they are right now, this should be a no-brainer.



Because they want to keep the numbers up at ATL so they flow as much traffic as possible over ATL.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
jetero
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:09 pm

redzeppelin wrote:
"We've grown 60 percent over the past five years" in number of seats sold on flights to and from Salt Lake City, he said. "That's a very large number. There's no reason to think we can't continue to grow and expand here."


Any idea where that number is coming from? Seats are actually marginally down 2011-2016 (3.5%) and O&D passengers are only slightly up (6.0%). That'd be pretty remarkable if true.
 
holeham
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:15 pm

I get that, but that doesn't answer why they fly RDU/SLC, CLT/SLC, MSY/SLC and MIA/SLC just to name a few places that they serve nonstop from SLC and that are not as big a mainline station as either TPA or FLL for that matter.
 
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11725Flyer
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:49 pm

klm617 wrote:
Because they want to keep the numbers up at ATL so they flow as much traffic as possible over ATL.


Maybe, but starting a flight to MIA would undercut your argument.

MIA flights beginning from SLC on 12/21 are:

12/21 SLC-MIA dep 5:00 pm arr 11:45 pm
12/22 MIA-SLC dep 7:00 am arr 10:15 am
 
Rdh3e
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:01 pm

jetero wrote:
Any idea where that number is coming from? Seats are actually marginally down 2011-2016 (3.5%) and O&D passengers are only slightly up (6.0%). That'd be pretty remarkable if true.

Looking at the article it's not clear he actually said that. Only the growth part was in quotes and the rest of the sentence saying he was referring to SLC was not in quotes. He was probably actually talking about the western US or something and the reporter mischaracterized his statement.
 
jetero
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:08 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
jetero wrote:
Any idea where that number is coming from? Seats are actually marginally down 2011-2016 (3.5%) and O&D passengers are only slightly up (6.0%). That'd be pretty remarkable if true.

Looking at the article it's not clear he actually said that. Only the growth part was in quotes and the rest of the sentence saying he was referring to SLC was not in quotes. He was probably actually talking about the western US or something and the reporter mischaracterized his statement.


Makes much more sense, thanks. Either that or the seats sold on certain routes has increased as DL dumped capacity.

Sounds like a standard "rah-rah," "ain't nobody going to get us down," "don't worry about LAX and SEA," "keep on plugging away" speech.
 
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enilria
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:24 pm

redzeppelin wrote:
-DL fully supportive of SLC terminal replacement project.

This still surprises me. I wonder what the details behind that are? On the surface it seems way too expensive for DL to want.

redzeppelin wrote:
-Growth to Latin America is expected after AeroMexico deal is done.

Latin America=Mexico. I wouldn't expect much from this. Maybe 1 RT incremental.

redzeppelin wrote:
-Additional Europe flights possible as LHR and AMS mature.

Pretty vague and I'd say fairly unlikely.
redzeppelin wrote:
-"West of the Mississippi is where we see the greatest growth opportunities in our business"

No doubt on that
redzeppelin wrote:
-"We've grown 60 percent over the past five years" in number of seats sold on flights to and from Salt Lake City, he said. "That's a very large number. There's no reason to think we can't continue to grow and expand here."

DL capacity in SLC has grown from 801,000 to 870,000 from Aug2011 to Aug2016. That's +8.6%.
DL SLC O&D for 1Q 2016 vs 1Q 2011 (most recent quarter from DOT) has gone up to 801,000 from 750,000, that's +6.8%.
DL traffic from T100 for 4Q2015 vs 4Q2010 (most recent quarter with intl) is down from 1,822,000 to 1,817,000. Those all combine NW and all affiliates.

So, I'm going to call that pretty much completely false. I don't see any relevant metric that's even close to that number, so at best it is contrived based on some crazy stat like seats sold on websites with a Y in their name.
 
a380787
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:33 pm

787fan8 wrote:
What are SLC's chances of landing a non-stop flight to Asia?


Basically zero anytime in the next 5 years. If you look at neighboring medium sized cities, the offering is paltry (I'm not listing SJC since I count that as the same metro as SFO) :

- PDX has that legacy NRT flight dating from the NW days. During the recent NRT/HND shuffle, they *claimed* PDX-NRT is safe for now. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and assume we can take their word at face value. There's casual chatters/murmurs about ANA showing some interest, but nothing concrete yet.

- SAN has JL to NRT, possibly enabled by strong AA FF base in the metro
- DEN just has a relatively new NRT flight, and that's a JV'ed hub-to-hub service (plus DEN being quite a bit larger than SLC both of as a hub operation and as a metro)
- LAS has ICN and soon will add PEK, but that's a very different type of destination.

- PHX has none, despite frequent wishful-thinking of linking it to NRT
- SMF has none
 
jetero
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:46 pm

enilria wrote:
redzeppelin wrote:
-Growth to Latin America is expected after AeroMexico deal is done.

Latin America=Mexico. I wouldn't expect much from this. Maybe 1 RT incremental.


But what about all those Mormon mission trips?! Have you seen 90 Day Fiance?!
 
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enilria
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:52 pm

jetero wrote:
enilria wrote:
redzeppelin wrote:
-Growth to Latin America is expected after AeroMexico deal is done.

Latin America=Mexico. I wouldn't expect much from this. Maybe 1 RT incremental.


But what about all those Mormon mission trips?! Have you seen 90 Day Fiance?!

It makes much less sense for AM to be flying DEN-SJO than for DL to be doing it, and that's if the bilaterals even allow it which I'm not sure they do. So, we are talking about an extra flight to MEX or MTY perhaps. Something, but not a huge deal.
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:07 pm

That sounds pretty much like the same speech he gives at every DL hub stop.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
klakzky123
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:19 pm

enilria wrote:
jetero wrote:
enilria wrote:
Latin America=Mexico. I wouldn't expect much from this. Maybe 1 RT incremental.


But what about all those Mormon mission trips?! Have you seen 90 Day Fiance?!

It makes much less sense for AM to be flying DEN-SJO than for DL to be doing it, and that's if the bilaterals even allow it which I'm not sure they do. So, we are talking about an extra flight to MEX or MTY perhaps. Something, but not a huge deal.


Didn't the new open skies agreement go into effect? I don't think bilaterals are an issue anymore.
 
klm617
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:33 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
That sounds pretty much like the same speech he gives at every DL hub stop.



Exactly empty words that sound sweet to the ear.
Last edited by klm617 on Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
flyoregon
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:39 pm

Sounds like a great speech in an attempt to get some financial incentive...

I'm sure Ill get some backlash on this, but I don't think people in the SLC area realize how lucky they are to have Delta there. Geography is definitely on their side. They have three n/s routes to Europe while PHX has one. PHX is a far larger metro than SLC.

And please don't cite that Europeans love Utah for the skiing. I'm sure many do, but Europe has some exceptional skiing, and I suspect Colorado or parts of Canada are more appealing than the Utah slopes. The LDS Church flies a lot of missionaries from SLC of course, but they're not filling planes...and they're making a lot of connections. Trust me on that....it was brutal.

Without Delta and the unchangeable advantage of geography, Salt Lake City International would likely be more like Sacramento at best. It's a small metro spread out over many, many miles from North to South. Yes, it's growing, but it's not mind-blowing growth, and yes, there is a lot of start-up efforts in the area. All of that is completely terrific, but in the end, it's still considerably small.

My overall point is that SLC is EXTREMELY lucky to have what they have. LHR, AMS (on DL and KL), and CDG, plus the Mexico and Canada flights. More international growth from SLC doesn't make tons of sense from a planning point of view.
 
klm617
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:43 pm

11725Flyer wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Because they want to keep the numbers up at ATL so they flow as much traffic as possible over ATL.


Maybe, but starting a flight to MIA would undercut your argument.

MIA flights beginning from SLC on 12/21 are:

12/21 SLC-MIA dep 5:00 pm arr 11:45 pm
12/22 MIA-SLC dep 7:00 am arr 10:15 am


Are those flights daily and year round ?
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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11725Flyer
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:03 pm

klm617 wrote:
Are those flights daily and year round ?


They're bookable on delta.com through August 11th, so it appears as though it's year round.
 
jetero
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:20 pm

flyoregon wrote:
Sounds like a great speech in an attempt to get some financial incentive...


From whom? Employees in the audience? The airport can't give anything away.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:38 pm

a380787 wrote:
787fan8 wrote:
What are SLC's chances of landing a non-stop flight to Asia?


Basically zero anytime in the next 5 years. If you look at neighboring medium sized cities, the offering is paltry (I'm not listing SJC since I count that as the same metro as SFO)

SLC has already had scheduled service to Asia: NRT on an A332.

The aircraft struggled, and feed was limited on the Asian side, but DL did IIRC say that the financial results were about what they expected for the launch period.

Not unreasonable to think that should a j/v with KE go through, they could place a 77E on the route, with significant feed on both ends. If they take their 787s as 788s, then that also seems like a route that would be tailor-made for such an aircraft.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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enilria
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:46 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
enilria wrote:
jetero wrote:

But what about all those Mormon mission trips?! Have you seen 90 Day Fiance?!

It makes much less sense for AM to be flying DEN-SJO than for DL to be doing it, and that's if the bilaterals even allow it which I'm not sure they do. So, we are talking about an extra flight to MEX or MTY perhaps. Something, but not a huge deal.


Didn't the new open skies agreement go into effect? I don't think bilaterals are an issue anymore.

Open Skies does not give you the automatic right to fly between two other countries non-stop.
 
klakzky123
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:49 pm

enilria wrote:
klakzky123 wrote:
enilria wrote:
It makes much less sense for AM to be flying DEN-SJO than for DL to be doing it, and that's if the bilaterals even allow it which I'm not sure they do. So, we are talking about an extra flight to MEX or MTY perhaps. Something, but not a huge deal.


Didn't the new open skies agreement go into effect? I don't think bilaterals are an issue anymore.

Open Skies does not give you the automatic right to fly between two other countries non-stop.


I realize that but the open skies deal did make it much easier to get approval to start routes. You still have to go to regulators to get approval but there are far fewer restrictions now so approval isn't particularly challenging anymore.
 
EddieDude
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:09 pm

Agree with Enilria that Latin America essentially means Mexico. Is MEX-SLC's daily DL service seasonal? I suppose it could become an all-year long route. SLC-GDL is 2x weekly (seasonal?); maybe there is room for more frequencies.

It will be interesting to see if DL increases frequencies to beach destinations in Mexico from SLC (I understand SJD/CUN are 2x weekly and PVR is 1x weekly).
Upcoming flights:
May: AM MEX-CUN 73H (Y), AM CUN-MEX 73W (Y).
August: KL MEX-AMS 74M (J), KQ AMS-NBO 788 (J).
 
a380787
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:28 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
a380787 wrote:
787fan8 wrote:
What are SLC's chances of landing a non-stop flight to Asia?


Basically zero anytime in the next 5 years. If you look at neighboring medium sized cities, the offering is paltry (I'm not listing SJC since I count that as the same metro as SFO)

SLC has already had scheduled service to Asia: NRT on an A332.

The aircraft struggled, and feed was limited on the Asian side, but DL did IIRC say that the financial results were about what they expected for the launch period.

Not unreasonable to think that should a j/v with KE go through, they could place a 77E on the route, with significant feed on both ends. If they take their 787s as 788s, then that also seems like a route that would be tailor-made for such an aircraft.


Emphasize "has had". It didn't come back, so its success back then was marginal at best. With the pull down of the NRT hub, SLC-NRT makes very little sense for anyone at this point.

Regarding KE, I'd like to see how sustainable a hypothetical MSP-ICN is before getting ahead of ourselves. SLC-ICN would be heavily skewed towards "bridge" double-connects. And don't forget PHX-NRT still doesn't exist today, despite being called "no brainer" at times.
 
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enilria
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:15 pm

EddieDude wrote:
Agree with Enilria that Latin America essentially means Mexico. Is MEX-SLC's daily DL service seasonal? I suppose it could become an all-year long route. SLC-GDL is 2x weekly (seasonal?); maybe there is room for more frequencies.

It will be interesting to see if DL increases frequencies to beach destinations in Mexico from SLC (I understand SJD/CUN are 2x weekly and PVR is 1x weekly).

Given that the traffic was all American to begin with, I don't see how the AM-DL JV does anything for the beach markets. DL's position is unchanged in those markets by virtue of the JV. The traffic mix is over 90% U.S. originating in those markets.
 
Legend757
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:18 pm

EddieDude wrote:
Agree with Enilria that Latin America essentially means Mexico. Is MEX-SLC's daily DL service seasonal? I suppose it could become an all-year long route. SLC-GDL is 2x weekly (seasonal?); maybe there is room for more frequencies.

It will be interesting to see if DL increases frequencies to beach destinations in Mexico from SLC (I understand SJD/CUN are 2x weekly and PVR is 1x weekly).


All of the Mexico cities are year round at this point with frequency varying with seasons.

MEX is daily year round, mainline
CUN is daily, year round except for shoulder seasons Sept/Oct, mainline
GDL 4-5x weekly during peak season, year round, regional
SJD 2x weekly, year round mainline-regional mix
PVR 2-3x weekly, year round mainline-regional mix

I could see an upgauge on GDL, increased freq on existing routes as well as the possible addition of MTY
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:23 pm

a380787 wrote:
With the pull down of the NRT hub, SLC-NRT makes very little sense for anyone at this point.

No argument there. I'm guessing if it ever gets an Asian nonstop again, it'll be ICN.


a380787 wrote:
SLC-ICN would be heavily skewed towards "bridge" double-connects.

....just like their Euro services. That doesn't appear to be much of a problem to DL/KL.


a380787 wrote:
And don't forget PHX-NRT still doesn't exist today, despite being called "no brainer" at times.

I'd want to see how the (redundant) PHX hub looks after a recession, before crying about int'l service there.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Legend757
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:30 pm

a380787 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
a380787 wrote:

Basically zero anytime in the next 5 years. If you look at neighboring medium sized cities, the offering is paltry (I'm not listing SJC since I count that as the same metro as SFO)

SLC has already had scheduled service to Asia: NRT on an A332.

The aircraft struggled, and feed was limited on the Asian side, but DL did IIRC say that the financial results were about what they expected for the launch period.

Not unreasonable to think that should a j/v with KE go through, they could place a 77E on the route, with significant feed on both ends. If they take their 787s as 788s, then that also seems like a route that would be tailor-made for such an aircraft.


Emphasize "has had". It didn't come back, so its success back then was marginal at best. With the pull down of the NRT hub, SLC-NRT makes very little sense for anyone at this point.

Regarding KE, I'd like to see how sustainable a hypothetical MSP-ICN is before getting ahead of ourselves. SLC-ICN would be heavily skewed towards "bridge" double-connects. And don't forget PHX-NRT still doesn't exist today, despite being called "no brainer" at times.


I know DL attributed the discontinuation of NRT to aircraft type. I'm sure that is the face value response, but for what its worth, here are the LFs for SLC-NRT on the 332. Not too shabby from a LF perspective on a newly instated transpacific route.

May 2010- 95%
Jun 2010- 97%
Jul 2010- 85%
Aug 2010- 87%
Sep 2010- 87%
Oct 2010- 77%
Jun 2011- 84%
Jul 2011- 76%
Jul 2011- 81%
Sep 2011- 72%

Avg- 84%

I don't think the matter is if they aircraft can be filled, as long as it is the right aircraft. I agree that should a JV with KE materialize, a SLC-ICN isn't entirely out of the question even if it is on KE metal...77E, 332, 788/9
 
a380787
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:40 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
a380787 wrote:
SLC-ICN would be heavily skewed towards "bridge" double-connects.

....just like their Eu


SLC-ICN is over 900mi longer than SLC-AMS, and LHR/CDG/AMS are far easier destinations to sell to Americans than ICN, so there's actually reasonable amount of O&D at the European end of things as opposed to be being nearly a pure bridge that SLC-ICN may be (you can go check up on PDEW figures yourself)

That's the same phenomenon why DEN sees European service to LHR KEF FRA and even MUC and yet barely one to NRT (despite their economic stagnation and population aging, Tokyo is still a far larger destination for Americans than Seoul is, no matter how we slice and dice it). Like I said, until MSP-ICN sees daylight (and actually proven sustainable), it's not worth speculating on SLC-ICN, which is as useful as AA thinking of CLT-HEL or UA thinking of DEN-VIE.
 
alasizon
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:41 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
jetero wrote:
Any idea where that number is coming from? Seats are actually marginally down 2011-2016 (3.5%) and O&D passengers are only slightly up (6.0%). That'd be pretty remarkable if true.

Looking at the article it's not clear he actually said that. Only the growth part was in quotes and the rest of the sentence saying he was referring to SLC was not in quotes. He was probably actually talking about the western US or something and the reporter mischaracterized his statement.


He probably wasn't referring to SLC directly. I believe the current plans of the US3 are all Western Expansion. The West has long had inefficient traffic flows when compared with the Midwest and East. As such, I suspect that they will equalize the flow of passengers better by trimming some of the marginal flying elsewhere for better yielding traffic out west (or to connect to the West).

flyoregon wrote:
Sounds like a great speech in an attempt to get some financial incentive...

I'm sure Ill get some backlash on this, but I don't think people in the SLC area realize how lucky they are to have Delta there. Geography is definitely on their side. They have three n/s routes to Europe while PHX has one. PHX is a far larger metro than SLC.

And please don't cite that Europeans love Utah for the skiing. I'm sure many do, but Europe has some exceptional skiing, and I suspect Colorado or parts of Canada are more appealing than the Utah slopes. The LDS Church flies a lot of missionaries from SLC of course, but they're not filling planes...and they're making a lot of connections. Trust me on that....it was brutal.

Without Delta and the unchangeable advantage of geography, Salt Lake City International would likely be more like Sacramento at best. It's a small metro spread out over many, many miles from North to South. Yes, it's growing, but it's not mind-blowing growth, and yes, there is a lot of start-up efforts in the area. All of that is completely terrific, but in the end, it's still considerably small.

My overall point is that SLC is EXTREMELY lucky to have what they have. LHR, AMS (on DL and KL), and CDG, plus the Mexico and Canada flights. More international growth from SLC doesn't make tons of sense from a planning point of view.

SLC is lucky with what they have, sure. However, its really DL that has given SLC what it has. PHX & LAS are VFR hubs that if SLC hadn't already existed, would probably be bigger for domestic flights and the international flights survive on connections. The local market for Europe is there but it is long and thin without the connections.

Personally, I think that for North American flights, the Mountain West hubs (SLC, DEN, PHX) could easily all grow beyond what they are at now.
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a380787
Posts: 4573
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:46 pm

Legend757 wrote:
I agree that should a JV with KE materialize, a SLC-ICN isn't entirely out of the question even if it is on KE metal...77E, 332, 788/9


Given that KLM is entirely absent from both DTW and MSP, and VS yanking out of DTW-LHR after a short-lived experiment, I'd posture that even with a JV, a DL metal on SLC-ICN would have far higher chance of success than KE metal.

Double-connects can easily fill a plane, so load factor was never in question here. It's a matter of yield when the route is loaded by double-connects.
 
Legend757
Posts: 90
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:55 pm

a380787 wrote:
Legend757 wrote:
I agree that should a JV with KE materialize, a SLC-ICN isn't entirely out of the question even if it is on KE metal...77E, 332, 788/9


Given that KLM is entirely absent from both DTW and MSP, and VS yanking out of DTW-LHR after a short-lived experiment, I'd posture that even with a JV, a DL metal on SLC-ICN would have far higher chance of success than KE metal.

Double-connects can easily fill a plane, so load factor was never in question here. It's a matter of yield when the route is loaded by double-connects.


That is an interesting point. You're right, DL metal would likely be the better option. I realize that LF is not a reflection of yield. Only providing the data as another perspective.
 
bkflyguy
Posts: 205
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:34 pm

flyoregon wrote:
And please don't cite that Europeans love Utah for the skiing. I'm sure many do, but Europe has some exceptional skiing, and I suspect Colorado or parts of Canada are more appealing than the Utah slopes.


While I can't comment on European skiing, I can say that for me, the only other places I would consider better than Utah (specifically Snowbird/Alta) in North America is Whistler Blackcomb and Jackson Hole. This is based purely on my preference for steep and deep skiing and Utah has by far the best and reliably deepest snow. Then again, I go to ski, not sit in the chalet and eat expensive meals at the resort.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:57 pm

bkflyguy wrote:
While I can't comment on European skiing, I can say that for me, the only other places I would consider better than Utah (specifically Snowbird/Alta) in North America is Whistler Blackcomb and Jackson Hole. This is based purely on my preference for steep and deep skiing and Utah has by far the best and reliably deepest snow. Then again, I go to ski, not sit in the chalet and eat expensive meals at the resort.

Right there with you. Will definitely agree with Utah's claim of "best snow"... perhaps not on Earth, but definitely in the USA.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
thedetroitpole
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Wed Sep 14, 2016 10:09 pm

I have transited through SLC a few times, it is pretty convenient location for connections to the west from the east. The terminal is becoming aged and it would be interesting to see what wil happen with the new structure and what DL can do with it.
 
jb1087xna
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Thu Sep 15, 2016 12:04 am

thedetroitpole wrote:
I have transited through SLC a few times, it is pretty convenient location for connections to the west from the east. The terminal is becoming aged and it would be interesting to see what wil happen with the new structure and what DL can do with it.


Connected through there on DL almost a year ago in both directions. The restaurant options and layout seemed very food court-ish and fast food, similar to what you'd find in a enclosed mall. I'm probably spoiled by connecting in ATL on most of my DL flights, but to be one of their biggest hubs, the options just seemed lackluster. My two cents anyway.
Next up: XNA-ATL-IAH-MSP-XNA
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5332
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Thu Sep 15, 2016 12:06 am

jb1087xna wrote:
thedetroitpole wrote:
I have transited through SLC a few times, it is pretty convenient location for connections to the west from the east. The terminal is becoming aged and it would be interesting to see what wil happen with the new structure and what DL can do with it.


Connected through there on DL almost a year ago in both directions. The restaurant options and layout seemed very food court-ish and fast food, similar to what you'd find in a enclosed mall. I'm probably spoiled by connecting in ATL on most of my DL flights, but to be one of their biggest hubs, the options just seemed lackluster. My two cents anyway.

Hopefully this will addressed in the rebuild.

FWIW SLC's end goal is to be set up just like ATL/DEN.
 
TW870
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:44 am

a380787 wrote:
Legend757 wrote:
I agree that should a JV with KE materialize, a SLC-ICN isn't entirely out of the question even if it is on KE metal...77E, 332, 788/9


Given that KLM is entirely absent from both DTW and MSP, and VS yanking out of DTW-LHR after a short-lived experiment, I'd posture that even with a JV, a DL metal on SLC-ICN would have far higher chance of success than KE metal.
.


Why? Other than the lack of KL service at MSP/DTW and some of the VS swap arounds as anecdotal evidence, why would SLC have a DL metal advantage with a JV (which I recognize has yet to happen with KE)? Sure, the individual carriers still try to minimize costs with a JV, looking at aircraft turn times, crew layover costs and trip patterns, etc. But there is no reason why an individual carrier would have a categorical advantage on a given JV route. SLC has cheaper hotel costs than some other DL stations, which actually incentives operations by the partner and not the local carrier.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
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Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:17 am

TW870 wrote:
a380787 wrote:
Legend757 wrote:
I agree that should a JV with KE materialize, a SLC-ICN isn't entirely out of the question even if it is on KE metal...77E, 332, 788/9


Given that KLM is entirely absent from both DTW and MSP, and VS yanking out of DTW-LHR after a short-lived experiment, I'd posture that even with a JV, a DL metal on SLC-ICN would have far higher chance of success than KE metal.
.


Why? Other than the lack of KL service at MSP/DTW and some of the VS swap arounds as anecdotal evidence, why would SLC have a DL metal advantage with a JV (which I recognize has yet to happen with KE)? Sure, the individual carriers still try to minimize costs with a JV, looking at aircraft turn times, crew layover costs and trip patterns, etc. But there is no reason why an individual carrier would have a categorical advantage on a given JV route. SLC has cheaper hotel costs than some other DL stations, which actually incentives operations by the partner and not the local carrier.


Brand recognition being a big factor. You'll think it's metal JV and thus everything is absolutely equalized, but from the less than frequent customer's view, it's still a foreign unknown entity versus a name and brand they know very well. How many people from Wyoming and Kansas (2 of the logical behind-SLC markets) do u think know KE well, if at all ?

Airlines starting a new foreign station isn't cheap at all, so for VS to yank out so quickly (with all the costs associated with the station closing), something must've been less than ideal. If you're arguing it's trying to find optimal equipment between 2 JV partners, then their math must've been quite off initially to have to re-assess and re-adjust in such a short span of time. VS LHR-DTW survived far shorter than what one expects to be the allowable lead time for long haul route maturity.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5332
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:21 am

a380787 wrote:
TW870 wrote:
a380787 wrote:

Given that KLM is entirely absent from both DTW and MSP, and VS yanking out of DTW-LHR after a short-lived experiment, I'd posture that even with a JV, a DL metal on SLC-ICN would have far higher chance of success than KE metal.
.


Why? Other than the lack of KL service at MSP/DTW and some of the VS swap arounds as anecdotal evidence, why would SLC have a DL metal advantage with a JV (which I recognize has yet to happen with KE)? Sure, the individual carriers still try to minimize costs with a JV, looking at aircraft turn times, crew layover costs and trip patterns, etc. But there is no reason why an individual carrier would have a categorical advantage on a given JV route. SLC has cheaper hotel costs than some other DL stations, which actually incentives operations by the partner and not the local carrier.


Brand recognition being a big factor. You'll think it's metal JV and thus everything is absolutely equalized, but from the less than frequent customer's view, it's still a foreign unknown entity versus a name and brand they know very well. How many people from Wyoming and Kansas (2 of the logical behind-SLC markets) do u think know KE well, if at all ?

Airlines starting a new foreign station isn't cheap at all, so for VS to yank out so quickly (with all the costs associated with the station closing), something must've been less than ideal. If you're arguing it's trying to find optimal equipment between 2 JV partners, then their math must've been quite off initially to have to re-assess and re-adjust in such a short span of time. VS LHR-DTW survived far shorter than what one expects to be the allowable lead time for long haul route maturity.

This
I listened to Richard Anderson go over this before. One of the big choices of who operates what is what point of sale they are going after the most.

That is why most of the DL-hub and focus cities have DL to Europe metal and why you don't see DL operating a route like SFO-CDG.
The other big thing is aircraft size. Since DL has 763752s we see a lot of margin routes (PHL-LHR) operated on DL metal when the VS name probably makes more sense but a 333/789 is too much.

Plus things like crew costs, agreements with unions, lease agreement etc. all come into play.


SLC-ICN would more than likely be DL. If KE expands into DL hubs it will likely be as a second flight. On the flip side the only non-DL hubs I think we would realistically see DL operate ICN from would be JFK and/or LAX.
Maybe PDX because of aircraft size. (but I personally think PDX-NRT will die with no replacement once ANA or JAL launch flights to TYO)
 
flyboy80
Posts: 2022
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2001 8:10 am

Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Thu Sep 15, 2016 4:20 am

deltal1011man wrote:
a380787 wrote:
TW870 wrote:



SLC-ICN would more than likely be DL. If KE expands into DL hubs it will likely be as a second flight. On the flip side the only non-DL hubs I think we would realistically see DL operate ICN from would be JFK and/or LAX.
Maybe PDX because of aircraft size. (but I personally think PDX-NRT will die with no replacement once ANA or JAL launch flights to TYO)


Would it make sense for ANA to serve the Portland area and Oregon with a flight to Tokyo HND or NRT based on connecting traffic beyond TYO? It seems as long as the 767 is around its almost a perfect sized aircraft for DL's NRT service. I do not know if that flight is "profitable" or if its often full, but if Delta eventually cant make Portland- Tokyo successful because of the declining connections at NRT than would a flight somewhere else such as PVG or ICN from PDX work, or do those two markets just have considerably less OD compared with PDX-TYO? I think I remember hearing at some point PDX-TYO is very much local traffic, in which case I can understand the interest from a Japan based carrier.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5332
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Thu Sep 15, 2016 4:29 am

flyboy80 wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
a380787 wrote:


Would it make sense for ANA to serve the Portland area and Oregon with a flight to Tokyo HND or NRT based on connecting traffic beyond TYO? It seems as long as the 767 is around its almost a perfect sized aircraft for DL's NRT service. I do not know if that flight is "profitable" or if its often full, but if Delta eventually cant make Portland- Tokyo successful because of the declining connections at NRT than would a flight somewhere else such as PVG or ICN from PDX work, or do those two markets just have considerably less OD compared with PDX-TYO? I think I remember hearing at some point PDX-TYO is very much local traffic, in which case I can understand the interest from a Japan based carrier.

NRT. ANA or JAL don't have the HND-USA slots to waste on PDX-HND.
ANA's NRT hub and DL's NRT hub aren't remotely comparable.

ANA at NRT still has service to all the cities in Asia DL did plus a much larger network outside of that. So yes, ANA (or JAL) would be a better match for PDX-NRT. JAL probably a better fight because it has a codeshare with AS, IIRC. Both have the 788 which is pretty comparable with the 763.

and yes PDX-TYO is larger than PDX-ICN and PVG. (PVG wouldn't be happening on DL without an open skies anyways, that is a long way off)
 
flyboy80
Posts: 2022
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2001 8:10 am

Re: Ed Bastian visits SLC, foresees DL growth to LatAm, etc

Thu Sep 15, 2016 4:40 am

deltal1011man wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:



NRT. ANA or JAL don't have the HND-USA slots to waste on PDX-HND.
ANA's NRT hub and DL's NRT hub aren't remotely comparable.

ANA at NRT still has service to all the cities in Asia DL did plus a much larger network outside of that. So yes, ANA (or JAL) would be a better match for PDX-NRT. JAL probably a better fight because it has a codeshare with AS, IIRC. Both have the 788 which is pretty comparable with the 763.

and yes PDX-TYO is larger than PDX-ICN and PVG. (PVG wouldn't be happening on DL without an open skies anyways, that is a long way off)


This makes sense to me. It also would seem if the PDX area was better served by this combination there could be incentives. When they started to build up SEA I had always thought it was a matter of time before PDX-NRT was gone, again. But perhaps Delta does well just on the local traffic and in linking the Oregon and Japan economies?

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