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enilria
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:04 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
The Joint Investigation Team (JIT) is convinced of having obtained irrefutable evidence to establish that on 17 July 2014, flight MH-17 was shot down by a BUK missile from the 9M38-series. According to the JIT there is also evidence identifying the launch location that involves an agricultural field near Pervomaiskyi which, at the time, was controlled by pro-Russian fighters.


So now what? Will Russia accept responsibility & pay repatriations to the families of the victims a la Libya & Lockerbie, or will MH17 join the other flights that are shot down & forgotten?

https://www.om.nl/onderwerpen/mh17-cras ... mh17-shot/

If the area was controlled by pro-Russia fighters why does that mean Russia is to blame? Aren't the rebels to blame? If the Free Syrian Army bombs a hospital, is the USA to blame?
 
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PW100
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:23 pm

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/opinion-russian-response-to-mh17-treats-public-like-429895/

Please do note that FlightGlobal (or Flight International for that matter) is by no means contra-Russia. Read their historical editor comment, and you will find that they have a documented history of vehemently defending Russia and MAK in the Smolensk accident and investigation vs Polish accusations and distractions.

Rgds,
PW100
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Dutchy
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:51 pm

SCAT15F wrote:
b747400erf wrote:
WIederling wrote:

Just the idea of a BUK launcher being moved over long distances ( probably passing a range of other BUK launchers on its way
for a single launch and then being moved back ( again past other nearer systems ) to its original position appears to be absurd. The desired effect is to insinuate long time premeditation and planning.

The absolutely immediate blaim response from the US is another indicator that this is some kind of false flag operation.
( More of a LIHOP/MIHOP op than direct false flag like the German "Sender Gleiwitz" thing. The US has a along history of planning and executing ( often in a rather hamfisted fashion ) such things. Neither the Soviets nor the RF are known for such acts.


You have no evidence, only feelings and conspiracy theories because you need to confirm your bias about America. Russia has a longer history of "false flag operations" and America has never killed hundreds of people for a political agenda. Ukraine is not more important than the deaths of hundreds of people. But Putin has no problem killing anyone that stands in his way, including trying to keep control of Ukraine for his cronies.



Not too many historians here. False flags are part and parcel of US/NATO operations. Operation Gladio for starters, not to mention the CIA overthrowing or attempting to overthrow more than 50 democratically elected governments. America has killed thousands of people for a political agenda.


Did you look at any of the evidence, or do you feel you don't need to? And what kind of evidence would convince you that Russia played a major part in it. There is no real evidence to back Russia's claim that Ukraine did it, or America, none. All "evidence" from Russia could be taken a part as soon as it was written, whether it was, let's see just to name a view:
- Su-25 shooting it down (can't reach that high and can't fly as fast)
- Ukraine missile (no, only Russia has this specific type) --> false flag
- Ukraine missile (no, only Russia has this specific type) --> wanted to shoot down presidents Putins plane (not even overflying Ukraine)

More bizar once:
- CIA did it (with what?)
- bom (no it wasn't, it was a BUK missile)
- False flag, favoriet one: in Amsterdam a number of dummies were taken into the plane and it was radio controlled --> really?)
- Mechanical failure (no it was a Russian BUK)
- ridiculous Su-27 shooting down the B767(!)

Feel free to contribute to the more bizar stories we have heard from the Russian side.

The rest of the world has one story, the story which was proven.

So historian, what did happen and what evidence have you to back up all your claims........
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:00 pm

PW100 wrote:
It is obvious that you do not know my country (the Netherlands). I'll be the first to acknowledge there may be a lot of things wrong in my country.
However I can assure you, as we have lost 193 citizens, we have a very deep desire to find the criminals who pulled the trigger and those who were part of the command chain. Any notion that ALL of the investigation efforts of my country is just political motivated is an unbelievable insult over the souls of 298 dead innocent bystanders of a conflict they were never part of.

Rgds,
PW100


Helemaal mee eens. Good point, PW100. SCAT15F is insulting the men and women left behind by 298 murders.

Rgds, Jeroen
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:25 pm

SCAT15F wrote:
From flightglobal:

Flight Safety Foundation backs independent probe

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ro-429874/


The Flight Safety was addressed in the appropriate manner, even Russia was part of that investigation, conclusions reached, Ukraine had a slab on the wrist, lessons learned and hopefully nothing like this will happen ever again.

This is a criminal investigation, something totally different. But you are welcome to criticize Russia for vetoing an international court for this.
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iamlucky13
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:25 pm

eielef wrote:
Say it was a Russian missile, thrown by Ukrainian revels from Eastern Ukraine. Who is to blame? Russians or Eastern Ukrainians? If I sell you a gun (as in many stores in the US they do), and you decide to shot someone, is not my responsibility. If the irrefutable evidence achieved by both the Dutch investigation and the Ukrainian judiciary is sure it was fired by Eastern Ukrainians, then, find the guy and send him to jail. Easy!
It seems so much easier to return to the Cold War years when Russians where even guilty by earthquakes or flue..


Both are to blame.

Giving sophisticated military weapons to poorly trained rebels is reckless, even before we delve into the matter of international arms trafficking (as this was not a sale of arms to an established government, and even if it had been, it's doubtful the parliament was in the loop). The responsibility for that recklessness can't be ignored.

This is also very different from the legal sale of a firearm within the borders of a single country (which in the US, is forbidden for those with histories of felonies, domestic violence, or to anyone subject to a federally qualifying protection order (different from a no-contact order).

A far closer analogy is, having heard the yelling and screaming from next door as your neighbors fight, night after night, instead of trying to intervene in a controlled manner like calling the police (peace keeping force), trying to direct them counseling (international mediators), etc, you pull one of them secretly aside and say, "I've noticed you and your husband are having trouble. Here's a gun in case you want to use it. I never liked him anyways." Except just because that's not bad enough, the neighbor didn't shoot the spouse, but missed and killed several passers by.

Also, cut out the hyperbole like referring to demands for those who are complicit in crimes to admit responsibility being equivalent to a return to the cold war. Did you really expect to retain any credibility when you dismissed multi-layered evidence ranging from missile exhaust traces in soil to radar records to photos of the launcher being transported to Donetsk as equivalent to blaming Russia for earthquakes?

Lastly, international criminal extradition is never easy, so arresting the actual person (rumors that Russian soldiers were directly involved have not been addressed by the investigators, but they did hint they may have a good idea) who ordered the launch will not be easy. There is no reason why that should interfere with dealing with their accomplices.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:27 pm

Operation Gladio was a military/paramilitary "stay behind" resistance operation in case of a Soviet invasion. While Gladio units have been accused of nefarious actions, especially in Italy, there is no real proof of this. Indeed, there are serious holes with the claims of Gladio operations committing crimes and internal terrorrism in places like Italy. Maybe it happened, maybe it didn't. We don't know, and the news people who offered these claims possess no real proof. If they did, I'm sure that prosecutions would have resulted given Europe's attitudes towards things like renditions.

Now, back to Russia and the shootdown, let's see...
- the missile was of Russian manufacture.
- the missile was launched from Russian controlled territory, or territory under the control of Russian backed militants.
- Russia initially claimed a Ukrainian fighter had shot the 777 down. Nope, forensic examination of the wreckage and bodies pretty much put paid to that false claim. It was a SAM.
- Radar tracks...
- One could go on.

The evidence that Russia by accident or design short down this civilian passenger plane is pretty overwhelming. Here's the thing: Russia NEVER admits culpability. The USA did when we shot down the Iranian Airbus by mistake, and there was clearly blame on both sides there, but probably the majority of it lying with the captain of the USS Vincennes. As an American, I must be academically honest and admit this. But, Russia NEVER admits fault, not for her KGB (or whatever they're calling it nowadays)-controlled state doping program, and not for killing a planeload of innocent civilians. NEVER.
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:37 pm

"Why give them the "benefit of doubt"? Why not look at the evidence, (including the immediately implemented attempt at coverup with falsified evidence), in an unbiased neutral manner and accept the conclusion that follows?"

All the casus belli the US has brought up as "forced to ..."
have evaporated after the deed.
This is like the death sentence. No recourse.
So you better be careful and think again.
Murphy is an optimist
 
salttee
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:14 pm

WIederling wrote:
All the casus belli the US has brought up as "forced to ..."
have evaporated after the deed.
This is like the death sentence. No recourse.
So you better be careful and think again.

I have no idea what any of this means.
Could you try again this time expressing complete thoughts?
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:15 pm

WIederling wrote:
"Why give them the "benefit of doubt"? Why not look at the evidence, (including the immediately implemented attempt at coverup with falsified evidence), in an unbiased neutral manner and accept the conclusion that follows?"

All the casus belli the US has brought up as "forced to ..."
have evaporated after the deed.
This is like the death sentence. No recourse.
So you better be careful and think again.


The JIT team is very careful, so no worries here. The US has nothing to do with the JIT, other then providing information which had been collaborated with phone calls, witnesses etc. So getting the US in here is forced and your casus belli might be for the Russian side, not the other side.

Russia is involved and either Russian separatist or Russian military pushed the button and gave the order. Better learn and live with it.
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:18 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
But, Russia NEVER admits fault, not for her KGB (or whatever they're calling it nowadays)-controlled state doping program, and not for killing a planeload of innocent civilians. NEVER.


They do, just takes a long time, at least a decade. The KA007 shoot down was admitted in the end. So perhaps when Russia gets ride of Putin, then we finally get Russia to admit what has happend here.
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:29 pm

The US never said that the Vincennes didn't down the Airbus. That's the difference. We can quibble about the respective levels of responsibility and why Vincennes engaged, but the US clearly admitted that it downed the Airbus. Russia, I'm waiting...
 
salttee
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:46 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Both are to blame.
Wrong. The only entity to "blame" (hold responsible) is the Russians. They brought the TELAR across the border, they manned the TELAR, they fired on MH-17. No doubt the "rebels" (who are in many cases Russian soldiers out of uniform) cheered the 53rd Brigade crew on; but they did nothing to bring MH-17 down.
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:32 pm

salttee wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
Both are to blame.
Wrong. The only entity to "blame" (hold responsible) is the Russians. They brought the TELAR across the border, they manned the TELAR, they fired on MH-17. No doubt the "rebels" (who are in many cases Russian soldiers out of uniform) cheered the 53rd Brigade crew on; but they did nothing to bring MH-17 down.


For some life is so very simple.
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alfa164
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:31 pm

WIederling wrote:
salttee wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
Both are to blame.
Wrong. The only entity to "blame" (hold responsible) is the Russians. They brought the TELAR across the border, they manned the TELAR, they fired on MH-17. No doubt the "rebels" (who are in many cases Russian soldiers out of uniform) cheered the 53rd Brigade crew on; but they did nothing to bring MH-17 down.


For some life is so very simple.


A simple life is better than no life left at all - which is the fate Russia and its cronies handed the innocent passengers on MH17.
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salttee
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:34 pm

WIederling wrote:
For some life is so very simple.

A cliche instead of discussion or debate?
No wonder Trump likes you Russians so much.

But I can understand why you want to avoid getting into the nitty gritty of whose launcher, missile and crew killed all those innocent people.
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:45 pm

salttee wrote:
Why give them the "benefit of doubt"? Why not look at the evidence, (including the immediately implemented attempt at coverup with falsified evidence), in an unbiased neutral manner and accept the conclusion that follows?


I am doing just that. The quoted post was more supposition that statement.
I have followed this case from the moment the news first broke and I believe without a doubt in my mind, from all the evidence and now the newest released investigation details, that MH17 was brought down by a BUK missile fired from rebel held, territory. The Rebels got their hands on launchers, they must have gotten them from somewhere. We know Russia sent in troops and equipment to aid the rebels. It's not hard to imagine that a Russian BUK launcher was used, so they are involved in one way or another. The evidence is quite convincing.
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:23 pm

garpd wrote:
salttee wrote:
Why give them the "benefit of doubt"? Why not look at the evidence, (including the immediately implemented attempt at coverup with falsified evidence), in an unbiased neutral manner and accept the conclusion that follows?


I am doing just that. The quoted post was more supposition that statement.
I have followed this case from the moment the news first broke and I believe without a doubt in my mind, from all the evidence and now the newest released investigation details, that MH17 was brought down by a BUK missile fired from rebel held, territory. The Rebels got their hands on launchers, they must have gotten them from somewhere. We know Russia sent in troops and equipment to aid the rebels. It's not hard to imagine that a Russian BUK launcher was used, so they are involved in one way or another. The evidence is quite convincing.



You missed one fact, the type of missile used is a type only delivered to the Russian military and only in use with them, so based on this, it was a Russian BUK and the only question is, were Russian military in Ukraine and was the fire order from one of them or not. That is the next step in the investigation.
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:48 pm

salttee wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
Both are to blame.
Wrong. The only entity to "blame" (hold responsible) is the Russians. They brought the TELAR across the border, they manned the TELAR, they fired on MH-17. No doubt the "rebels" (who are in many cases Russian soldiers out of uniform) cheered the 53rd Brigade crew on; but they did nothing to bring MH-17 down.


I was going to quibble about the level of evidence of this, as I wasn't aware the JIT had made any public statements about individuals involved and their nationality.

However, since I just had time to read the JIT English summary and watch the narrated animations describing the evidence further (before I had just read the NYT article on the report) I think your claim is pretty compelling - it was only in Ukraine for about 24 hours, and it spent most of that time driving, a mix of on a flatbed, and on its own. There seems to be no evidence there was much opportunity to hand it over to separatists, much less train them how to operate it effectively.

That said, I will continue to use my original language: "both" parties are to blame. By which I mean there are two distinct groups of people involved.

There is, obviously, the crew of the launcher who at a bare minimum had an obligation to understand their rules of engagement, which would include an understanding of the potential occupants of the air space they are defending, which was not closed to civilian aircraft (especially not those operating above the range of ManPADS), so target identification was of absolute importance. I generally presume some degree of diminished culpability for soldiers following orders, but I find it doubtful they were ordered to kill civilians, and target identification is one of the most basic responsibilities of anybody using deadly force.

Whether they were Russian soldiers or separatist Ukrainians, they are not the only guilty parties. There is also whoever ordered the crew to cross the border and commit an act of war, especially one that led only to civilian deaths.
Last edited by iamlucky13 on Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
salttee
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:34 pm

garpd wrote:
The Rebels got their hands on launchers, they must have gotten them from somewhere.
The logic behind this escapes me. I too have followed this story from the day of the downing both here and elsewhere. From day one the posters here (with few exceptions) have bought into the idea that the "rebels" had gotten their hands on a BUK system. There never has been a shred of evidence to support this idea.

If you'll remember, early on there was some misinformation spewed around this subject: the Russian propagandist types were selling the idea that it was a Ukrainian BUK that brought the plane down (in between their claims that a Ukrainian SU-25 had shot it down.) At some point the Bellingcat website came out with the results of their investigation and brought forth pictures of the BUK launcher with 53rd Brigade markings as it traveled the roads around Snizhne, then the scorch marks where the missile was fired from. There were many posts about Bellingcat with pictures and all, yet all through this time even the rational posters were always leaning towards the idea that the people operating the TELAR were "rebels"; this always defied logic to me; no military commander would give up such a prime asset to irregulars, the idea makes no sense. Then there is the fact that it returned to Russia after the kill; then disappeared into a black hole (actually it was returned to the 53rd Brigade's inventory).

Also what has been ignored is the simple truth the the BUK system was designed to be operated in the same manner that this one was used, that is with the command module in a safe location, communicating with the TELARS via microwave. This is supported by the fact that the crew set the TELAR up on high ground, high ground wouldn't be needed if they were trying to do a short range ambush a Ukrainian plane that came into firing range, but high ground is necessary in order to establish the microwave link to the command module back on the Russian side of the border. I see lots and lots of evidence to indicate that this was a Russian Army operation and I see no evidence to support the idea that the "rebels" got hold of a launcher (from somewhere) and did the shootdown.

Why are seemingly rational people loath to follow logic? Why do they act to cover up for the Russians?
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:04 am

atypical wrote:
I have always felt the evidence was that the launch of the BUK was the result of rebel decision making, quite possibly in defiance of any Russian restrictions of its use if they even got it from the Russians. The unverified Russian radar imagery without sufficient altitude details to the horrible photoshop meant Russia was presenting two positive explanations both factually in opposition to each other. The issue should always have been the rebels, but the lengths Russia went to protecting them made the Russians complicit where that was not necessarily the case. The Russians would have better off saying nothing and letting the cards fall as they may. The results would have been some quarters blaming Russia (like Ukraine) but the rebels would have remained the focus with the Russians blame probably ending at "being stupid to let those idiots use a BUK at all." I do not, and have never, believed the Russians were actively involved in the shooting down a passenger aircraft. They unfortunately were active in covering the situation up and when it finally resulted it resulted in two divergent explanations being presented at the same time I think most people were shaking their heads wondering why.


I think you have a very accurate concept of what happened. Despite what some other posters say here, firing a BUK does not involve any high degree of knowledge or sophistication; knowing what it is being fired at, however, does need more training. A BUK can be fired with or without the newer control equipment that accurately identifies the target aircraft; without that input, it simply seeks to hit anything flying in its guidance radar path.

It appears the Russians - probably gleefully - savored the opportunity to provide their rag-tag group of "rebels" and cronies with a weapon that would bring down Ukrainian transport aircraft, but - once it got into the hands of that desultory group - instead was aimed at anything flying in the sky. In this case, sadly, it was a civilian airliner.

No wonder the Russians quickly ordered the launcher to be hustled back over the border, hoping to hide the evidence.
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:22 am

enilria wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
The Joint Investigation Team (JIT) is convinced of having obtained irrefutable evidence to establish that on 17 July 2014, flight MH-17 was shot down by a BUK missile from the 9M38-series. According to the JIT there is also evidence identifying the launch location that involves an agricultural field near Pervomaiskyi which, at the time, was controlled by pro-Russian fighters.


So now what? Will Russia accept responsibility & pay repatriations to the families of the victims a la Libya & Lockerbie, or will MH17 join the other flights that are shot down & forgotten?

https://www.om.nl/onderwerpen/mh17-cras ... mh17-shot/

If the area was controlled by pro-Russia fighters why does that mean Russia is to blame? Aren't the rebels to blame? If the Free Syrian Army bombs a hospital, is the USA to blame?


Because Russia arms the pro-Russia fighters. Because Russia attempted a laughable cover-up that had been easily debunked.

Seriously, I wouldn't be too hard on Russia if they had admitted culpability & said sorry, instead of trying to pin this all on Ukraine.
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salttee
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:22 am

alfa164 wrote:
I think you have a very accurate concept of what happened. Despite what some other posters say here, firing a BUK does not involve any high degree of knowledge or sophistication; knowing what it is being fired at, however, does need more training. A BUK can be fired with or without the newer control equipment that accurately identifies the target aircraft; without that input, it simply seeks to hit anything flying in its guidance radar path.

It appears the Russians - probably gleefully - savored the opportunity to provide their rag-tag group of "rebels" and cronies with a weapon that would bring down Ukrainian transport aircraft, but - once it got into the hands of that desultory group - instead was aimed at anything flying in the sky. In this case, sadly, it was a civilian airliner.

No wonder the Russians quickly ordered the launcher to be hustled back over the border, hoping to hide the evidence.
You paint a detailed picture of your opinion but it is just unfounded opinion which I don't find very convincing, and here's why I don't find your picture of events convincing:

An upgraded TELAR with the latest version of missiles would be a treasured item in the currently cash strapped Russian military, it is illogical to think that a commander would just "hand the keys" to some civilians and let them drive away with this multi-million dollar piece of equipment. And if he were to do so what would the Russian Army crew assigned to the TELAR do? Just wave goodbye and sit down and have a smoke? I doubt it. The commander would want his equipment taken care of; for openers he would want to send one of his people to drive the thing so that these civilians don't drive it off a cliff. Then he would want one of his people to oversee the operation of the TELAR, so that if anything was damaged it wouldn't be covered up and later this commander might be held responsible for damaged government property or even worse he might one day find himself in combat and an unknown bit of damage renders this TELAR out of action. The idea of a commander "loaning out" such a piece of equipment in a non sequitur IMO.

Then there is the premise you apparently accept, that a TELAR would be loaned out to shoot down an enemy aircraft without an available command module. Again, no commander would even consider such a silly action. The TELAR's radar is of the pencil beam variety, It can detect and lock on to a target if it is pointed at a target, but it has no way to find one on it's own - it has no search radar. You would have to sit in the van and (electrically) swing the antenna through the sky looking for a blip on your screen, but airplanes don't take up much space in that big sky out there, and you've got to target them dead on in azimuth and elevation before they provide a return so that you can know they are even out there. The TELAR's radar looks at the world as if looking through a straw. No air defense commander would sent a bunch of untrained, or semitrained boobs out with one of his TELARS in the hopes they might find an enemy plane and then somehow lock on to it. He wouldn't even send one of his trained and experienced crews out on such a fools errand. That just wouldn't happen.

Which brings us to a simple and obvious, but mostly overlooked fact: the TELAR in question was undoubtedly working under the direction of its command module. There is simply no plausible way to explain how or why a BUK TELAR would be operating about 8 miles from the Russian border (and less than 12 miles from a Russian military site) without a microwave connection to its command module.

And BTW I am still waiting for the first piece of actual evidence (not just a belief or a feeling) that this TELAR was manned by anything other than 53rd Brigade soldiers.
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:16 am

777Jet wrote:
salttee wrote:
777Jet wrote:
but why were airlines still flying over that particular war zone given the AN26 shoot-down days earlier which the "whole world knew" about to use your term.

Because that's what airlines do, that's what they've always done, that's what they are sure to do in the future. Get over it.

Another thing: MH-17 was almost three miles higher than the AN26 and it was on an international airway at 500kts or so. The AN26 had just finished conducting a military air drop. You try to make it sound like they are parallels.

But congratulations, you win the Monday morning quarterbacking competition. Yet you have to admit, the MAS flight planners were at a disadvantage with you, they were working in real time.


It is you who needs to "get over it" and realize that perhaps commercial aircraft full of customers should not have been flying over that active war-zone and those responsible for facilitating that need to accept how their poor decision making made the shoot-down possible.

You try to make it sound like the plane was shot-down over somewhere like the Swiss Alps or Australia in which there is no war taking place and in which another aircraft was not shot down days earlier.


You too need to realize that airlines depend on authorities to advise them whether it is safe to fly where they want to fly because an airline's intelligence may not be as extensive as what the authorities may have captured. And rerouting flights is not an easy undertaking - you need to get approvals from the respective governments to overfly their airspace, arrange payment etc etc, so it will take more than a few days to change the routing filed in advance. In the case of MH17, Ukraine didn't declare that the airspace is unsafe, Eurocontrol didn't declare that the airspace is unsafe & other airlines continued flying the area. So any attempt of forcing the airline to shoulder blame is erroneous. The key point remains, if that missile hadn't been there, the plane would have not been shot down.

Also, let it be on the record that MH was not alone in using the airspace around Donetsk at the time - SQ, LH, KL, even your beloved TG had flights flying through the area in the days before the disaster. Heck, if they had chosen to shoot later it would have been an SQ 777 that was brought down - and SQ were later caught trying to cover up this fact by saying that they don't fly through the area (something you can't do in the age of Flightradar24).
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salttee
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:52 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
You too need to realize that airlines depend on authorities to advise them whether it is safe to fly where they want to fly because an airline's intelligence may not be as extensive as what the authorities may have captured. And rerouting flights is not an easy undertaking - you need to get approvals from the respective governments to overfly their airspace, arrange payment etc etc, so it will take more than a few days to change the routing filed in advance. In the case of MH17, Ukraine didn't declare that the airspace is unsafe, Eurocontrol didn't declare that the airspace is unsafe & other airlines continued flying the area. So any attempt of forcing the airline to shoulder blame is erroneous. The key point remains, if that missile hadn't been there, the plane would have not been shot down.

Also, let it be on the record that MH was not alone in using the airspace around Donetsk at the time - SQ, LH, KL, even your beloved TG had flights flying through the area in the days before the disaster. Heck, if they had chosen to shoot later it would have been an SQ 777 that was brought down - and SQ were later caught trying to cover up this fact by saying that they don't fly through the area (something you can't do in the age of Flightradar24).

In the assumption that when you said: "You too" you really meant "You two", I will respond to your post.

My part in this conversation has been to give some pushback to a poster who has been trying to absolve the Russians of guilt consistently since the early days after the shootdown. His current gambit is to try and award responsibility to the Ukrainians for this tragedy; I see this as essentially propaganda. It is my firm belief that the Russians, or some level of their military command, intentionally ordered this shootdown. To try to muddy the waters by shifting blame to anyone else is an injustice and a disservice to those who died. To do anything to mitigate Russian guilt is out of order IMO.

I agree with all you have said above and I want to expand a bit on why the Ukrainians should not be cast in any way as villains here. They didn't create the conflict and they haven't done anything to expand the conflict, they, or their government is under enormous pressure from all directions, they are fighting a lopsided battle with the Russians and their focus is down at the street level, they are concerned with what the Russians are going to do next, but their noses were down on the ground so to speak. They had no way of knowing the Russians were about to shoot down an airliner: that came out of left field. They were blindsided along with everyone else. There was no reason to think that air traffic above 31,000 feet was in danger, anything that is that high is very hard to bring down (you need something like a BUK to do it), as far as they knew there was nothing in their territory that could reach that high.

As you point out, in this case MAS was not alone, many others were doing the same thing, the industry has done the same in many other hot spots over the years. That's just a fact of life. If anyone feels strongly that this needs to change then they should focus on that subject, maybe immolate themselves in front of FAA Hq or the Eurocontrol offices. But don't try to muddy the waters where MH-17 is concerned.
 
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777Jet
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:32 am

salttee wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
You too need to realize that airlines depend on authorities to advise them whether it is safe to fly where they want to fly because an airline's intelligence may not be as extensive as what the authorities may have captured. And rerouting flights is not an easy undertaking - you need to get approvals from the respective governments to overfly their airspace, arrange payment etc etc, so it will take more than a few days to change the routing filed in advance. In the case of MH17, Ukraine didn't declare that the airspace is unsafe, Eurocontrol didn't declare that the airspace is unsafe & other airlines continued flying the area. So any attempt of forcing the airline to shoulder blame is erroneous. The key point remains, if that missile hadn't been there, the plane would have not been shot down.

Also, let it be on the record that MH was not alone in using the airspace around Donetsk at the time - SQ, LH, KL, even your beloved TG had flights flying through the area in the days before the disaster. Heck, if they had chosen to shoot later it would have been an SQ 777 that was brought down - and SQ were later caught trying to cover up this fact by saying that they don't fly through the area (something you can't do in the age of Flightradar24).

In the assumption that when you said: "You too" you really meant "You two", I will respond to your post.

My part in this conversation has been to give some pushback to a poster who has been trying to absolve the Russians of guilt consistently since the early days after the shootdown. His current gambit is to try and award responsibility to the Ukrainians for this tragedy; I see this as essentially propaganda. It is my firm belief that the Russians, or some level of their military command, intentionally ordered this shootdown. To try to muddy the waters by shifting blame to anyone else is an injustice and a disservice to those who died. To do anything to mitigate Russian guilt is out of order IMO.

I agree with all you have said above and I want to expand a bit on why the Ukrainians should not be cast in any way as villains here. They didn't create the conflict and they haven't done anything to expand the conflict, they, or their government is under enormous pressure from all directions, they are fighting a lopsided battle with the Russians and their focus is down at the street level, they are concerned with what the Russians are going to do next, but their noses were down on the ground so to speak. They had no way of knowing the Russians were about to shoot down an airliner: that came out of left field. They were blindsided along with everyone else. There was no reason to think that air traffic above 31,000 feet was in danger, anything that is that high is very hard to bring down (you need something like a BUK to do it), as far as they knew there was nothing in their territory that could reach that high.

As you point out, in this case MAS was not alone, many others were doing the same thing, the industry has done the same in many other hot spots over the years. That's just a fact of life. If anyone feels strongly that this needs to change then they should focus on that subject, maybe immolate themselves in front of FAA Hq or the Eurocontrol offices. But don't try to muddy the waters where MH-17 is concerned.


I'm not trying to make the Ukraine, nor MH, sound like villains. I'm just saying they also have questions to answer and their role in making the tragedy possible needs to be acknowledged - as many of the victims friends and family point out (several of them in interviews ask why the plane was flying over that area?). Of course whoever fired the BUK is responsible. Of course the plane would not have been brought down if the BUK wasn't fired. On the other hand, the plane wouldn't have been brought down if it wasn't there. Again, it's not like it was flying over the peaceful Swiss Alps or the Australian Outback. It was flying over an active war-zone that was getting more hostile day by day and in which another aircraft was shot down days earlier - to which salttee admits the whole world knew about. It was even known that BUKs were in the area and what they were capable of. The country in control of the airspace, as well as the airlines who use that airspace, do have a duty of care that was neglected.

As for unsurprising comments made by TheFlyingDisk, our good friend from Malaysia:


""Also, let it be on the record that MH was not alone in using the airspace around Donetsk at the time - SQ, LH, KL, even your beloved TG had flights flying through the area in the days before the disaster.""

I think even QF was flying through the area. But your "beloved" MH, your country's flag carrier, was the one that got caught out rolling the dice.


""You too need to realize that airlines depend on authorities to advise them whether it is safe to fly where they want to fly because an airline's intelligence may not be as extensive as what the authorities may have captured. And rerouting flights is not an easy undertaking - you need to get approvals from the respective governments to overfly their airspace, arrange payment etc etc, so it will take more than a few days to change the routing filed in advance.""

Yet Australian Airlines cancel flights with zero notice whenever the volcano close to Bali starts spewing ash. If airlines were serious about safety, MH17 could have been avoided. The BUK had plenty of targets to choose from - it should have had no targets to choose from. All the approvals and time it takes blah blah blah excuse is the aviation industry's 'tombstone mentality' at its most dangerous.
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alfa164
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:36 am

salttee wrote:
You paint a detailed picture of your opinion but it is just unfounded opinion which I don't find very convincing, and here's why I don't find your picture of events convincing: An upgraded TELAR with the latest version of missiles would be a treasured item in the currently cash strapped Russian military, it is illogical to think that a commander would just "hand the keys" to some civilians and let them drive away with this multi-million dollar piece of equipment. And if he were to do so what would the Russian Army crew assigned to the TELAR do? Just wave goodbye and sit down and have a smoke? I doubt it. The commander would want his equipment taken care of; for openers he would want to send one of his people to drive the thing so that these civilians don't drive it off a cliff. Then he would want one of his people to oversee the operation of the TELAR, so that if anything was damaged it wouldn't be covered up and later this commander might be held responsible for damaged government property or even worse he might one day find himself in combat and an unknown bit of damage renders this TELAR out of action. The idea of a commander "loaning out" such a piece of equipment in a non sequitur IMO.


You might be (philosophically) right, if the BUK that crossed the border had traveled with the upgraded TELAR system. However, there is no evidence that it did; all photos, all reports, and all the evidence points to the presence of the BUK control module, but no advanced TELAR.

salttee wrote:
Then there is the premise you apparently accept, that a TELAR would be loaned out to shoot down an enemy aircraft without an available command module. Again, no commander would even consider such a silly action. The TELAR's radar is of the pencil beam variety, It can detect and lock on to a target if it is pointed at a target, but it has no way to find one on it's own - it has no search radar. You would have to sit in the van and (electrically) swing the antenna through the sky looking for a blip on your screen, but airplanes don't take up much space in that big sky out there, and you've got to target them dead on in azimuth and elevation before they provide a return so that you can know they are even out there.


That is not quite correct. The BUK system operates independently with an auto-engage mode, created during the Cold War when the Russians feared that Western nations would try to attack with massed groups of fighter planes. It will recognize a target and launch a missile at it within seconds, If the Russian military supplied the BUK to the "rebels", they could have given them basic training in how to launch the missile(s) in automatic mode, with the need for the more advanced TELAR unit. Without the ability to interpret the radar images they saw, they would have had no way of differentiating a civilian aircraft from a military one.

salttee wrote:
Which brings us to a simple and obvious, but mostly overlooked fact: the TELAR in question was undoubtedly working under the direction of its command module. There is simply no plausible way to explain how or why a BUK TELAR would be operating about 8 miles from the Russian border (and less than 12 miles from a Russian military site) without a microwave connection to its command module..


When you say it is "simple and obvious"... and that it was "undoubtedly working under the direction of its command module...", that is, as we say in law, a conclusion not supported by the evidence presented. There is, so far, no empirical evidence to show that the BUK was - or was not - in communication with a TELAR unit. You are assuming it was; your argument depends on that assumption. But there is no evidence that is correct.

salttee wrote:
And BTW I am still waiting for the first piece of actual evidence (not just a belief or a feeling) that this TELAR was manned by anything other than 53rd Brigade soldiers.


We do know that Igor Girkin, the Ukranian separatist known as “Strelkov,” who was known as the "Commander" of the proposed independent (or Russian-controlled) "Eastern Ukraine" bragged about his group's downing of an aircraft at the exact moment MH17 was shot down. Posted on Russia’s VKontakte website - the website that had been continually used by the rebels to brag about their "accomplishments" - it was a "We-were-there-shooting-at-airplanes" admission. Read it yourself:

"In the vicinity of Torez, we just downed a plane, an AN-26. It is lying somewhere in the Progress Mine. We have issued warnings not to fly in our airspace. We have video confirming. The bird fell on a waste heap. Residential areas were not hit. Civilians were not injured."

The posting was taken down as soon as it became apparent that the plane was not an AN-26, but a civilian airliner. None of that would prove that Russian soldiers were not present and involved, but it does indicate that it was more of a tragic, slapstick military operation than a planned attack on a civilian airliner.


Philosophically, I agree that Putin and his cronies inside Russia are just as culpable as the rag-tag group of "separatists" in Ukraine. They recklessly supplied deadly weapons to a group of mercenaries and malcontents, which ended in the tragic loss of almost 300 civilians - not to metnion the numbers of Ukrainians who have also suffered from the conflict. I do not, however, agree - without seeing any evidence to prove it - that the downing of MH17 was an intentional act from the Kremlin.

Nevertheless, they are as guilty as the fools who launched the missile.
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anrec80
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:44 am

alfa164 wrote:
aw70 wrote:
Perhaps you don't realize that Russia's consistent (and patently dishonest) claims that it had no troops or operations inside Ukraine's borders might be a reason for their reluctance.


Aren't you tired yet from these "Russian troops" searches? For over 2.5 years even Ukrainians couldn't come up with more than a handful of names, and you are still trying to talk about some "military presence". Real Russian military presence would have ended in a week, together with that Ukrainian "independence".

alfa164 wrote:
"In the vicinity of Torez, we just downed a plane, an AN-26. It is lying somewhere in the Progress Mine. We have issued warnings not to fly in our airspace. We have video confirming. The bird fell on a waste heap. Residential areas were not hit. Civilians were not injured."


Oh please - social networks of rebels' commanders. If you ever talk to someone who is or used to be in intelligence, they will tell you that those places are full of sorts of dudes, who are spoofing for all sorts of stuff. Value of those posts by themselves, without subsequent checks by intelligence, satellites, surveillance, etc. is zero. Not even worth discussing.

Same as in this case. Who was running the account "Igor Strelkov"? Was it Strelkov himself? What's the real purpose of these posts? Motivation? Fund raising perhaps? In the latter cases, do these posts even have to have anything to do with reality?
Last edited by anrec80 on Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:07 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
anrec80
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:56 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Because Russia arms the pro-Russia fighters. Because Russia attempted a laughable cover-up that had been easily debunked. Seriously, I wouldn't be too hard on Russia if they had admitted culpability & said sorry, instead of trying to pin this all on Ukraine.


Why should they say sorry? The investigation said outright - "we have about 100 suspects, but we can't claim that Russian officials or Russia as a state has to do anything here". What problem do you have with Russia as a state then?

Overall, the investigation results are mostly based on some cell phone call records provided by Ukrainians and, of course, social networks. Especially I am admired by their statements of BUK coming from and to Russia. I am wondering - will this ever get to any court? And if yes - how long will this last there? Do they even have a goal of getting this into a court for trial?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:59 am

SCAT15F wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
SCAT15F wrote:


Not too many historians here. False flags are part and parcel of US/NATO operations. Operation Gladio for starters, not to mention the CIA overthrowing or attempting to overthrow more than 50 democratically elected governments. America has killed thousands of people for a political agenda.


Did you look at any of the evidence, or do you feel you don't need to? And what kind of evidence would convince you that Russia played a major part in it. There is no real evidence to back Russia's claim that Ukraine did it, or America, none. All "evidence" from Russia could be taken a part as soon as it was written, whether it was, let's see just to name a view:
- Su-25 shooting it down (can't reach that high and can't fly as fast)
- Ukraine missile (no, only Russia has this specific type) --> false flag
- Ukraine missile (no, only Russia has this specific type) --> wanted to shoot down presidents Putins plane (not even overflying Ukraine)

More bizar once:
- CIA did it (with what?)
- bom (no it wasn't, it was a BUK missile)
- False flag, favoriet one: in Amsterdam a number of dummies were taken into the plane and it was radio controlled --> really?)
- Mechanical failure (no it was a Russian BUK)
- ridiculous Su-27 shooting down the B767(!)

Feel free to contribute to the more bizar stories we have heard from the Russian side.

The rest of the world has one story, the story which was proven.

So historian, what did happen and what evidence have you to back up all your claims........



I never claimed to know what really happened, unlike yourself who was clearly there watching it all firsthand.

As far as insulting the people left behind, your unquestioned acceptance of this "official investigation" is the real insult. If you think this investigation is free of major NATO and US pressure for a predetermined result, then you're living in a dream world. The US/NATO's efforts to undermine and weaken Russia by any means necessary should be a surprise to no one who is a student of US foreign policy. The number of neocons on this site is truly amazing.


Russia has a collective Napoleon complex, Russia was a major power in the Soviet era, nowadays it is a regional power, the UK want threw the same, even The Netherlands. Well learn to live with it. The world isn't against Russia, that is made up by Russian propaganda. Nothing is more effective to form a solid group then creating an external enemy, and as I understand the Russians are bombarded with these kind of stories. The simple fact is, is that Russia isn't that important. Russia has an economic a little less then Italy and a population of less then 1/3 of the EU. The only thing Russia has something to tell on the world stage is the UNSC veto power, stopping progress in Syria for instance, and it's useless nucleair bombs.
Can I assume you are Russian and you aren't part of the troll factory in St. Petersburg? If so, learn from the internet how the world really works and what your president had done for Russia, nothing. Nowadays Russia is more depended on oil then when he came into power in 1999 and the wealth gab has grown and Russians are less free. So for the ordinary Russians it could be so much better. It might surprise you, but I like Russia and Russians, but I feel that Russians deserve so much better then the Putin regime.

The problem with you is that you don't claim to know what has happened, but you know for sure that it wasn't Russia. Well you have no evidence for that to back that up. And you know for sure that this investigation is predetermined. There is no evidence for that, none what so ever. I don't need to see Australia first hand, never been there, to accept that it is there. Same here, I can trust and do trust my government and I know that is quite unique in the world. You can question the investigation all you want, but do it with evidence which contradicts the results of this investigation. Don't come with insinuation but hard facts. In this way I have a hard time to take you seriously on this subject.

But let me ask you something, under which circumstances would you except that Russia played a major role in downing the MH17?
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:16 am

777Jet wrote:
salttee wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
You too need to realize that airlines depend on authorities to advise them whether it is safe to fly where they want to fly because an airline's intelligence may not be as extensive as what the authorities may have captured. And rerouting flights is not an easy undertaking - you need to get approvals from the respective governments to overfly their airspace, arrange payment etc etc, so it will take more than a few days to change the routing filed in advance. In the case of MH17, Ukraine didn't declare that the airspace is unsafe, Eurocontrol didn't declare that the airspace is unsafe & other airlines continued flying the area. So any attempt of forcing the airline to shoulder blame is erroneous. The key point remains, if that missile hadn't been there, the plane would have not been shot down.

Also, let it be on the record that MH was not alone in using the airspace around Donetsk at the time - SQ, LH, KL, even your beloved TG had flights flying through the area in the days before the disaster. Heck, if they had chosen to shoot later it would have been an SQ 777 that was brought down - and SQ were later caught trying to cover up this fact by saying that they don't fly through the area (something you can't do in the age of Flightradar24).

In the assumption that when you said: "You too" you really meant "You two", I will respond to your post.

My part in this conversation has been to give some pushback to a poster who has been trying to absolve the Russians of guilt consistently since the early days after the shootdown. His current gambit is to try and award responsibility to the Ukrainians for this tragedy; I see this as essentially propaganda. It is my firm belief that the Russians, or some level of their military command, intentionally ordered this shootdown. To try to muddy the waters by shifting blame to anyone else is an injustice and a disservice to those who died. To do anything to mitigate Russian guilt is out of order IMO.

I agree with all you have said above and I want to expand a bit on why the Ukrainians should not be cast in any way as villains here. They didn't create the conflict and they haven't done anything to expand the conflict, they, or their government is under enormous pressure from all directions, they are fighting a lopsided battle with the Russians and their focus is down at the street level, they are concerned with what the Russians are going to do next, but their noses were down on the ground so to speak. They had no way of knowing the Russians were about to shoot down an airliner: that came out of left field. They were blindsided along with everyone else. There was no reason to think that air traffic above 31,000 feet was in danger, anything that is that high is very hard to bring down (you need something like a BUK to do it), as far as they knew there was nothing in their territory that could reach that high.

As you point out, in this case MAS was not alone, many others were doing the same thing, the industry has done the same in many other hot spots over the years. That's just a fact of life. If anyone feels strongly that this needs to change then they should focus on that subject, maybe immolate themselves in front of FAA Hq or the Eurocontrol offices. But don't try to muddy the waters where MH-17 is concerned.


I'm not trying to make the Ukraine, nor MH, sound like villains. I'm just saying they also have questions to answer and their role in making the tragedy possible needs to be acknowledged - as many of the victims friends and family point out (several of them in interviews ask why the plane was flying over that area?). Of course whoever fired the BUK is responsible. Of course the plane would not have been brought down if the BUK wasn't fired. On the other hand, the plane wouldn't have been brought down if it wasn't there. Again, it's not like it was flying over the peaceful Swiss Alps or the Australian Outback. It was flying over an active war-zone that was getting more hostile day by day and in which another aircraft was shot down days earlier - to which salttee admits the whole world knew about. It was even known that BUKs were in the area and what they were capable of. The country in control of the airspace, as well as the airlines who use that airspace, do have a duty of care that was neglected.

As for unsurprising comments made by TheFlyingDisk, our good friend from Malaysia:


""Also, let it be on the record that MH was not alone in using the airspace around Donetsk at the time - SQ, LH, KL, even your beloved TG had flights flying through the area in the days before the disaster.""

I think even QF was flying through the area. But your "beloved" MH, your country's flag carrier, was the one that got caught out rolling the dice.


""You too need to realize that airlines depend on authorities to advise them whether it is safe to fly where they want to fly because an airline's intelligence may not be as extensive as what the authorities may have captured. And rerouting flights is not an easy undertaking - you need to get approvals from the respective governments to overfly their airspace, arrange payment etc etc, so it will take more than a few days to change the routing filed in advance.""

Yet Australian Airlines cancel flights with zero notice whenever the volcano close to Bali starts spewing ash. If airlines were serious about safety, MH17 could have been avoided. The BUK had plenty of targets to choose from - it should have had no targets to choose from. All the approvals and time it takes blah blah blah excuse is the aviation industry's 'tombstone mentality' at its most dangerous.


The question of flying threw the airspace has been addressed and hopefully the lessons are learned. It was not know that this kind of advanced weapon systems were present, only manpads were known to be there, hence the airspace was closed below the 30k feet. The problem, of course, is if you say none can overfly a war zone, then there is very little airspace to cross. Every time you board a plane you take a risk, if you want to avoid it, don't board it. Safety is always a compromise, safety isn't absolute.
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alfa164
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:24 am

anrec80 wrote:
Oh please - social networks of rebels' commanders. If you ever talk to someone who is or used to be in intelligence, they will tell you that those places are full of sorts of dudes, who are spoofing for all sorts of stuff. Value of those posts by themselves, without subsequent checks by intelligence, satellites, surveillance, etc. is zero. Not even worth discussing. Same as in this case. Who was running the account "Igor Strelkov"? Was it Strelkov himself? What's the real purpose of these posts? Motivation? Fund raising perhaps? In the latter cases, do these posts even have to have anything to do with reality?


The things you don't know about intelligence would write a great book. Whether or not a social network is a good source of intelligence depends on the history of its use and the access the subject has to use it. In this case, Russia’s VKontakte website had been continually used by the rebels to brag about their "accomplishments"; with no other media at their disposal There was no "Pravda-in-Eastern-Ukraine" printing daily editions for home consumption; it was the prime source method they used for their propaganda.

The posting credited to Girkin (“Strelkov,”) was online within moments of the shoot-down of MH17 - before anyone, other than the perpetrators, knew the aircraft had been hit. You may think some cosmic coincidence accounted for the sudden announcement - and its subsequent removal, once it was determined the craft was a civilian airliner, rather than a Ukrainian transport plane - but that strains credibility as much as the arguments of the other Russian apologists and trolls on this forum.


Of course, I am sure you have some empirical evidence to show some other explanation for the tragedy; I hope you will share it with all of us.
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:24 am

A simple Cui Bono logic tells me that it is far more likely to be a false flag operation.
 
anrec80
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:25 am

Dutchy wrote:
But let me ask you something, under which circumstances would you except that Russia played a major role in downing the MH17?


Because the investigators said themselves - Russia as a state or Russian state institutions have nothing to do here. What else do you need?

Why are you ruling out Ukrainians? Their radars have been noticed working there. They have already shot down an airliner in 2001. The plane was shot down by older BUK (and investigation confirmed that) - Russian air defenses no longer have any of those. What most likely happened in my view - Ukrainians pulled out BUKs from 20 year storage, slapped a system together, and some monkey became curious - what if I press this big red button? And did exactly that. Out of dozens of such conflicts in the world - in not even one rebels had air defenses like this and made use of them.

And now - since 2014 USA and EU imposed a bunch of sanctions, accused Russia in everything thinkable and unthinkable, gave all support to "democratic Ukraine". Do you think that they will let some investigation just cross all that? How will all Western politics look in that case? As if American disaster and disgrace in Syria isn't enough. Hence all these absurd fairy tales about BUK being dragged across the border, intercepted cellular calls (as if Russians are dumb enough to just use cell phones and not at least some well-encrypted messenger), and the likes.
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:32 am

alfa164 wrote:
Russia’s VKontakte website had been continually used by the rebels to brag about their "accomplishments"; with no other media at their disposal.


VKontakte is a platform a-la Facebook. Anyone posing as anyone can write there anything. And the posts you are referring to could be made by anyone (by someone from Ukrainians included). Hence I maintain the need to re-verify who's writing what. Even rebels - they heard that something fell down and posted that, before they even figured out what was it. Which in itself is meaningless.
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:34 am

anrec80 wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Because Russia arms the pro-Russia fighters. Because Russia attempted a laughable cover-up that had been easily debunked. Seriously, I wouldn't be too hard on Russia if they had admitted culpability & said sorry, instead of trying to pin this all on Ukraine.


Why should they say sorry? The investigation said outright - "we have about 100 suspects, but we can't claim that Russian officials or Russia as a state has to do anything here". What problem do you have with Russia as a state then?

Overall, the investigation results are mostly based on some cell phone call records provided by Ukrainians and, of course, social networks. Especially I am admired by their statements of BUK coming from and to Russia. I am wondering - will this ever get to any court? And if yes - how long will this last there? Do they even have a goal of getting this into a court for trial?


You stament is a half truth. The investigation is based on cellphone records, tapped cellphone calls, witnesses, inside witness, forensic evidence (the specific BUK missile only in use with the Russian military), radartracks, social media.
All have been checked on their authenticity, that's why it took so long, 2,5 years to come up with these results. Furthermore all other scenario's have been ruled out as not possible, including the scenario's Russia came up with.
It is grossly misleading to say it is only based on Ukraine provided information.

There are 100 persons of interest identified, no suspects are officially mentioned. The next step is identifying whom was in control, who ordered the missile launch, whom knew what and how high the order was given and what was the role of Russia. Did Russia only provide the missile, or also the men?

The intention is to bring the people, whom done it, to justice. How, when are the only questions. Russia veto-ed an international court, but there are other options. Preferably the suspects are there to defend them selfs, but that isn't even necessary, sentencing in absentia. It might take a long time, but the Netherlands will not forget, just like the Scottish and American people did not forget the Lockerbie bombing.
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:39 am

anrec80 wrote:
Because the investigators said themselves - Russia as a state or Russian state institutions have nothing to do here. What else do you need?.


Really? Where did you read that? The investigators did not say who the "approximately 100" suspects were - or whether they were Russian or not.

anrec80 wrote:
Why are you ruling out Ukrainians? Their radars have been noticed working there. They have already shot down an airliner in 2001. The plane was shot down by older BUK (and investigation confirmed that) - Russian air defenses no longer have any of those.


We have heard that story before... and yet an identical BUK was tracked coming across the border into Ukraine prior to the shoot-down, and somehow wandered back into Russia a day later - minus one missile.

And claiming that "Russia...no longer have any of those" was exposed as a lie when the Russian military proudly paraded that model - along with others - in the military parade just weeks after the incident.

anrec80 wrote:
And now - since 2014 USA and EU imposed a bunch of sanctions, accused Russia in everything thinkable and unthinkable, gave all support to "democratic Ukraine". Do you think that they will let some investigation just cross all that? How will all Western politics look in that case? As if American disaster and disgrace in Syria isn't enough. Hence all these absurd fairy tales about BUK being dragged across the border, intercepted cellular calls (as if Russians are dumb enough to just use cell phones and not at least some well-encrypted messenger), and the likes.


Misstating the facts and disinformation is the tradecraft of Russian trolls and apologists. Those "absurd fairy tales" are supported by empirical evidence. Perhaps you should actually read the report; it has far more credibility than you hope it would.
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:44 am

Dutchy wrote:
The question of flying threw the airspace has been addressed and hopefully the lessons are learned.


What has been learned? The whole thing is much simpler than that. Ukrainian air traffic authority (UkrAeroRukh) is owned by Kolomoysky - one of the oligarkhs who was behind the Maidan, and it overflight fees were his $$$ on the table. Of course he wouldn't willing to let this revenue source go just because of the war, and continued business as usual. If you are thinking that they will consider safety - you are thinking too well of them. How can a regime that ordered bombing of their own cities with their own citizens in them somehow think of safety of someone else's citizens?
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:45 am

Tough battle for the dutch. godspeed
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:50 am

anrec80 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
But let me ask you something, under which circumstances would you except that Russia played a major role in downing the MH17?


Because the investigators said themselves - Russia as a state or Russian state institutions have nothing to do here. What else do you need?


Where did they say that? Please give me a quote for that.

anrec80 wrote:
Why are you ruling out Ukrainians? Their radars have been noticed working there. They have already shot down an airliner in 2001. The plane was shot down by older BUK (and investigation confirmed that) - Russian air defenses no longer have any of those. What most likely happened in my view - Ukrainians pulled out BUKs from 20 year storage, slapped a system together, and some monkey became curious - what if I press this big red button? And did exactly that. Out of dozens of such conflicts in the world - in not even one rebels had air defenses like this and made use of them.


What on earth does an incident in 2001 has to do with this? I will repeat it over and over again, the specific type of BUK missile is only in use with the Russian army. So either the Russian army 'lent' the missile system to them, or they operated it them self. Or perhaps it was stolen, well even then Russia has a lot to answer for. The specific field where the missile was launched from, verified by radartracks, multiple witnesses, photo evidence and intercepted cell phone calls was under control of Russian backed rebels. So that said, how can you expect to be taken seriously the scenario you painted here? Where is the evidence to back that scenario up?


anrec80 wrote:
And now - since 2014 USA and EU imposed a bunch of sanctions, accused Russia in everything thinkable and unthinkable, gave all support to "democratic Ukraine". Do you think that they will let some investigation just cross all that? How will all Western politics look in that case? As if American disaster and disgrace in Syria isn't enough. Hence all these absurd fairy tales about BUK being dragged across the border, intercepted cellular calls (as if Russians are dumb enough to just use cell phones and not at least some well-encrypted messenger), and the likes.


The US and EU imposed sanctions (as did Russia in response) because they annexed the Crimea (fact) and mengeling / destabilization of eastern Ukraine, lot of circumstantial evidence for that. But the sanctions have nothing to do with the downing of MH17, nothing, so don't drag that into this debate. And Syria, well why come up with that? Also nothing to do with that, a hole other debate.

So the question stands: under which circumstances would you except that Russia played a major role in downing the MH17? What kind of evidence do you need before accepting this fact?
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:52 am

Dutchy wrote:
You missed one fact, the type of missile used is a type only delivered to the Russian military and only in use with them, so based on this, it was a Russian BUK and the only question is, were Russian military in Ukraine and was the fire order from one of them or not. That is the next step in the investigation.


Good point, I did miss that out. Agree 100%


salttee wrote:
garpd wrote:
The Rebels got their hands on launchers, they must have gotten them from somewhere.
The logic behind this escapes me. I too have followed this story from the day of the downing both here and elsewhere. From day one the posters here (with few exceptions) have bought into the idea that the "rebels" had gotten their hands on a BUK system. There never has been a shred of evidence to support this idea.


In the days leading up to the shoot down of MH17 a BUK missile took down a Ukrainian cargo plane from an altitude too high for shoulder mounted missiles. In the same moment MH17's component parts were raining down on Ukraine, we have the rebels themselves boasting on websites that they shot down the damn plane. How much more evidence do you need? The rebels had BUK missile launchers in their inventory and of a type that only the Russian military use.

salttee wrote:
If you'll remember, early on there was some misinformation spewed around this subject: the Russian propagandist types were selling the idea that it was a Ukrainian BUK that brought the plane down (in between their claims that a Ukrainian SU-25 had shot it down.) At some point the Bellingcat website came out with the results of their investigation and brought forth pictures of the BUK launcher with 53rd Brigade markings as it traveled the roads around Snizhne, then the scorch marks where the missile was fired from. There were many posts about Bellingcat with pictures and all, yet all through this time even the rational posters were always leaning towards the idea that the people operating the TELAR were "rebels"; this always defied logic to me; no military commander would give up such a prime asset to irregulars, the idea makes no sense. Then there is the fact that it returned to Russia after the kill; then disappeared into a black hole (actually it was returned to the 53rd Brigade's inventory).


On this we can agree. When I say the rebels had BUK launchers, I of course mean they had access to them. Whether or not they directly operated them is not something we are not able to clarify as mere civilians looking in from the outside.
However, from what I'm learning about the BUK system, there was no evidence of any TELAR. BUK launchers can and most often are operated independently.

salttee wrote:
Why are seemingly rational people loath to follow logic? Why do they act to cover up for the Russians?


I'm not anyway. I have had a gut feeling that it was a Russian who fired the missile. But, I wasn't prepared to say "The Russians did it" without evidence. Now that there is plenty about, it is looking more and more likely the shoot down was at the hands of a Russian, be it on orders or not. Otherwise, why would the Kremlin scramble to release faked evidence that it wasn't them and contradictory evidence at that. Russia is involved. To what extent? That needs to be properly investigated.



Dutchy wrote:
You missed one fact, the type of missile used is a type only delivered to the Russian military and only in use with them, so based on this, it was a Russian BUK and the only question is, were Russian military in Ukraine and was the fire order from one of them or not. That is the next step in the investigation.


Good point, I did miss that out. Agree 100%


alfa164 wrote:
Philosophically, I agree that Putin and his cronies inside Russia are just as culpable as the rag-tag group of "separatists" in Ukraine. They recklessly supplied deadly weapons to a group of mercenaries and malcontents, which ended in the tragic loss of almost 300 civilians - not to metnion the numbers of Ukrainians who have also suffered from the conflict. I do not, however, agree - without seeing any evidence to prove it - that the downing of MH17 was an intentional act from the Kremlin.

Nevertheless, they are as guilty as the fools who launched the missile.


Agreed. I'd like to think that the shoot down was not on Kremlin orders, but due to a trigger happy rebel or more likely a Russian.
The evidence is clear, it was a rebel "held" BUK launcher that shot down MH17. The level of complicity that Russia plays in it is still needs clarification, but as you said; by supplying the launcher, they are partly responsible.
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:53 am

anrec80 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The question of flying threw the airspace has been addressed and hopefully the lessons are learned.


What has been learned? The whole thing is much simpler than that. Ukrainian air traffic authority (UkrAeroRukh) is owned by Kolomoysky - one of the oligarkhs who was behind the Maidan, and it overflight fees were his $$$ on the table. Of course he wouldn't willing to let this revenue source go just because of the war, and continued business as usual. If you are thinking that they will consider safety - you are thinking too well of them. How can a regime that ordered bombing of their own cities with their own citizens in them somehow think of safety of someone else's citizens?


Also misleading.
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:04 am

alfa164 wrote:
We have heard that story before... and yet an identical BUK was tracked coming across the border into Ukraine prior to the shoot-down, and somehow wandered back into Russia a day later - minus one missile.
And claiming that "Russia...no longer have any of those" was exposed as a lie when the Russian military proudly paraded that model - along with others - in the military parade just weeks after the incident.


Are you referring to famous 2 year old video? That was shot on Ukrainian controlled territory? It raises more questions than answers, you know. And need to see the parade. Russians have BUKs - but much newer modification, not the one that shot the MH17. And JIT took a missile from Finnish BUK for their tests.

alfa164 wrote:
Misstating the facts and disinformation is the tradecraft of Russian trolls and apologists. Those "absurd fairy tales" are supported by empirical evidence. Perhaps you should actually read the report; it has far more credibility than you hope it would.


If the report is credible - good for them. Most important is still ahead - will there even be a follow-up? A trial? If yes - will this case stand in court? But if they are telling stories of BUK being hauled across the border without one missile - they better demonstrate a strong evidence, with all the satellite images. Otherwise it's gonna be like Colin Powell's "evidence" of Saddam's "chemical weapons", which was never found.
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:18 am

777Jet wrote:
Yet Australian Airlines cancel flights with zero notice whenever the volcano close to Bali starts spewing ash. If airlines were serious about safety, MH17 could have been avoided. The BUK had plenty of targets to choose from - it should have had no targets to choose from. All the approvals and time it takes blah blah blah excuse is the aviation industry's 'tombstone mentality' at its most dangerous.


Comparing a forced airspace closure & choosing different routes are apples & oranges. The authorities have come out & stated unequivocally that the airspace is closed, hence the airline just ground the aircraft at their home port & plan their next course of action without pressure. Here the airspace ISN'T closed. Hence airlines put their trust that authorities have vetted through the safety of the route. If you can't trust the authorities who else can you trust?

As for approvals, I can assure you that it's not an excuse. I've friends who do it for a living & they've shared me stories of how certain countries are incredibly particular when it comes to routing approvals right up to the registration of the aircraft used for the flights - if there's a last minute swap, they do reserve the rights to deny that flight overflight rights. It's certainly not as easy as you might think it is.

anrec80 wrote:
Why should they say sorry? The investigation said outright - "we have about 100 suspects, but we can't claim that Russian officials or Russia as a state has to do anything here". What problem do you have with Russia as a state then?


The same reason why America should have apologized for the Vincennes incident, and the same reason why Russia (again) should have apologized for KE007 - they were complicit. And my problem with the Russian state was that they tried to cover up their involvement with wildly inaccurate "facts". Why can't they just hang the pro-Russian rebels out to dry on this?
Last edited by TheFlyingDisk on Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:33 am

anrec80 wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
We have heard that story before... and yet an identical BUK was tracked coming across the border into Ukraine prior to the shoot-down, and somehow wandered back into Russia a day later - minus one missile.
And claiming that "Russia...no longer have any of those" was exposed as a lie when the Russian military proudly paraded that model - along with others - in the military parade just weeks after the incident.


Are you referring to famous 2 year old video? That was shot on Ukrainian controlled territory? It raises more questions than answers, you know. And need to see the parade. Russians have BUKs - but much newer modification, not the one that shot the MH17. And JIT took a missile from Finnish BUK for their tests.

alfa164 wrote:
Misstating the facts and disinformation is the tradecraft of Russian trolls and apologists. Those "absurd fairy tales" are supported by empirical evidence. Perhaps you should actually read the report; it has far more credibility than you hope it would.


If the report is credible - good for them. Most important is still ahead - will there even be a follow-up? A trial? If yes - will this case stand in court? But if they are telling stories of BUK being hauled across the border without one missile - they better demonstrate a strong evidence, with all the satellite images. Otherwise it's gonna be like Colin Powell's "evidence" of Saddam's "chemical weapons", which was never found.


It always intrigues me that when it comes to some of these topics, the bar in one direction is raised higher everytime evidence is presented, but is lowered in the other direction as if it's could only have happened that way. It is like reading a script. I think it's time for some new material.
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:20 am

Just a thought, but I have a question about the language spoken on those intercepted telephone conversation in the video released by the investigators. All the people, although swearing half the time, spoke fluent Moscow Russian instead of Ukrainian, which a rag-tag pick-up separatist would or could not use. The orders and comments issued on those intercepted coms were direct and to the point. In other words, Russian military language.
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:51 am

regional luanguages
RIXrat wrote:
Just a thought, but I have a question about the language spoken on those intercepted telephone conversation in the video released by the investigators. All the people, although swearing half the time, spoke fluent Moscow Russian instead of Ukrainian, which a rag-tag pick-up separatist would or could not use. The orders and comments issued on those intercepted coms were direct and to the point. In other words, Russian military language.


In those eastern parts of Ukraine the population speaks mainly Russian not Ukrainian. Apart from that the Ukraine has 19 regional languages.

Apart from that, people still believing the Russian propaganda must have wool for brains. It was clear from the first day, when the separatist were boasting of the downed airliner, who was responsible, realizing the mistake the buk carrier was moved fast back to Russia.
Last edited by mjoelnir on Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:30 am

mjoelnir wrote:
people still believing the Russian propaganda must have wool for brains.


Especially when you consider that their "what really happened" story has changed at least once and served only to contradict what they first claimed.
Also, the faked images did not help lend any credence to their claims. If they had stuck with one story and bolstered it, then you could at least give them the benefit of some doubt
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:03 am

alfa164 wrote:
You might be (philosophically) right, if the BUK that crossed the border had traveled with the upgraded TELAR system. However, there is no evidence that it did; all photos, all reports, and all the evidence points to the presence of the BUK control module, but no advanced TELAR.

We are told by the Dutch prosecutor that the missile that hit MH-17 was of a type that only Russia possesses. From that bit of information and from the fact that Bellingcat showed pictures of the TELAR with 53rd Brigade markings I concluded that the TELAR in question was an example of what the Russian Army uses as first line equipment, not a down level junker pulled out of a scrap pile. My comment was meant to show how a military unit takes pride in its equipment.

alfa164 wrote:
The BUK system operates independently with an auto-engage mode, created during the Cold War when the Russians feared that Western nations would try to attack with massed groups of fighter planes. It will recognize a target and launch a missile at it within seconds, If the Russian military supplied the BUK to the "rebels", they could have given them basic training in how to launch the missile(s) in automatic mode, with the need for the more advanced TELAR unit. Without the ability to interpret the radar images they saw, they would have had no way of differentiating a civilian aircraft from a military one.

I don't think you understand what I will refer to "stand alone mode" and what you are calling "automatic mode" (the mode that exists when a BUK TELAR operates without connection to its command module ie: its search radar.) I can't imagine this mode of operation being called "auto-engage mode".

The BUK system was designed to operate in an environment where the enemy has anti-radar missiles; in this environment the guy who "locks on" to a hostile aircraft is vulnerable to anti radiation missiles. So the BUK system uses somewhat expendable TELARS which take on the dangerous part while the command and control functions are kept separate in the command vehicle (module). Thus in a hostile environment, the individual TELARS might be picked off one by one, but the remaining command function will continue directing the remaining TELARS thus keeping the system working at or near full capability.

The stand alone mode occurs if the command vehicle gets taken out. In this case it is thought that it would be better to have the now blind remaining TELARS searching the sky in the general direction of where the attacking planes are expected - in the hopes they might get lucky and find something to launch on. This is better than nothing, but unless the TELAR operator can guess accurately where the threat is coming from, the stand alone TELAR would be in a hopeless position. Remember, the TELAR operator is now "looking through a straw". Stand alone mode would have its best chance of working against "massed groups" of aircraft: against a single plane in an unknown location, not so much.

Stand alone mode could as well be described as desperation mode.
alfa164 wrote:
There is, so far, no empirical evidence to show that the BUK was - or was not - in communication with a TELAR unit. You are assuming it was; your argument depends on that assumption. But there is no evidence that is correct.

Empirical evidence is provided by the knowledge of how the BUK system works, which informs that sending a TELAR out on its own without a search radar to guide it would be highly unlikely to be productive, and illogical in an operational sense.

alfa164 wrote:
We do know that Igor Girkin, the Ukranian separatist known as “Strelkov,” who was known as the "Commander" of the proposed independent (or Russian-controlled) "Eastern Ukraine" bragged about his group's downing of an aircraft at the exact moment MH17 was shot down. Posted on Russia’s VKontakte website - the website that had been continually used by the rebels to brag about their "accomplishments" - it was a "We-were-there-shooting-at-airplanes" admission. Read it yourself..............................
Sure, but how inclusive was his "we"? Our side?

alfa164 wrote:
I do not, however, agree - without seeing any evidence to prove it - that the downing of MH17 was an intentional act from the Kremlin.
Although I believe that, I have never made that claim here; as you say, there is no evidence to support it.
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:27 am

In regards to someone being tried for this at the Hague - good luck on that. I wish to be a millionaire but that probaby isn't happening.
The fact that Russia was not included in this joint comission makes it illagitimate at best.

Everyone is forgetting that a bunch of Ukranian Army units deserted to the rebels. So it's a good question on who shot down MH17?

If Ukraine has a civil war going on, they should have closed their airspace. End of story.
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