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tvh
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:42 am

tu204 wrote:
The fact that Russia was not included in this joint comission makes it illagitimate at best.


Why should Russia be included.
- The plane was not shot down in Russia.
- It was not a Russian build aircraft.
- It was not a Russian airline.
- Depature and denstination were not Russian.
- There were no Russians on board.

But
- The Buk was Russian.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:45 pm

tvh wrote:
tu204 wrote:
The fact that Russia was not included in this joint comission makes it illagitimate at best.


Why should Russia be included.
- The plane was not shot down in Russia.
- It was not a Russian build aircraft.
- It was not a Russian airline.
- Depature and denstination were not Russian.
- There were no Russians on board.

But
- The Buk was Russian.

Agreed. Accident investigations typically involve concerned parties. In this case, led by the Netherlands due to the flight's origin and the majority of passengers being Dutch. Malaysia would naturally be involved as well. The US would likewise offer assistance, one because the aircraft is American made, and two because the NTSB and FAA offer expertise on a level only a select few nations can match.

Russia's only involvement in this is -- potentially -- being involved in the shoot down, at least in some capacity (I believe the evidence is fairly strong, but I say "potentially" because even the investigating team hasn't yet reached that conclusion, so I will similarly follow suit). If Russia demanded involvement as part of the investigation team, it would not only open the potential for bias or sabotage (what with Russia possibly being the defendant as a result of said investigation), but it would also be a confirmation of guilt to an extent by insinuating they were, in fact, involved. It would neither be appropriate for them to be part of the investigation, nor would it give credence to their argument of having not been involved. Regardless, Russia's absence on the investigation team hardly delegitimizes the conclusions of the investigation itself, and to believe otherwise is simply foolish. Investigations such as these are evidence based, not opinion based. Given the level of scrutiny and political implications of whatever conclusion that will be reached, it necessitates a focus on hard evidence rather than circumstantial. If done properly, it makes it pretty hard to argue with fact (not that they won't try).

The incredible amount of misinformation and conspiracy theorizing in this thread is pretty astonishing, but unfortunately not surprising to pretty much anyone. I hope that fellow posters are able to sift through this crap to make their own educated conclusions based on evidence rather than conjecture. As moderators, there is unfortunately only so much that we can do when it comes to topics like this, apart from keeping things on topic. I believe that most users have the intelligence to reach their own logical conclusions, despite the best efforts of some by attempting to sow misinformation and confusion into the discussion as a diversion.
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:50 pm

WIederling wrote:
salttee wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
Both are to blame.
Wrong. The only entity to "blame" (hold responsible) is the Russians. They brought the TELAR across the border, they manned the TELAR, they fired on MH-17. No doubt the "rebels" (who are in many cases Russian soldiers out of uniform) cheered the 53rd Brigade crew on; but they did nothing to bring MH-17 down.


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garpd
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:10 pm

tu204 wrote:
The fact that Russia was not included in this joint comission makes it illagitimate at best.


Rubbish. You don't let someone suspected of a crime participate in the investigation! What rock do you live under?
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mjoelnir
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:24 pm

tu204 wrote:
In regards to someone being tried for this at the Hague - good luck on that. I wish to be a millionaire but that probaby isn't happening.
The fact that Russia was not included in this joint comission makes it illagitimate at best.

Everyone is forgetting that a bunch of Ukranian Army units deserted to the rebels. So it's a good question on who shot down MH17?

If Ukraine has a civil war going on, they should have closed their airspace. End of story.


Usually you do not invite the perpetrator to research the crime.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:11 pm

tu204 wrote:
In regards to someone being tried for this at the Hague - good luck on that. I wish to be a millionaire but that probaby isn't happening.
The fact that Russia was not included in this joint comission makes it illagitimate at best.

Everyone is forgetting that a bunch of Ukranian Army units deserted to the rebels. So it's a good question on who shot down MH17?

If Ukraine has a civil war going on, they should have closed their airspace. End of story.


Well, Lockerbie was tried decades after the bombing, so we are patient.

Why must Russia included for it to be legitimated? Don't get that, Russia government maintains that they had nothing to do with the shooting, no Russians were killed by the attack, it wasn't in Russian controlled airspace. So what exactly makes it absolutely necessary for the Russians to be included? Explain that to me as if I were a 5y/o.

With regards to the civil war, well you can close half the airspace between Europe and South East Asia, not practical en they did get a slab on the wrist for not closing earlier, it was closed below 30k feet. But to end in your train of thought, Russia shouldn't have stirred things up in eastern Ukraine, Russia shouldnot have invaded Crimea, Russia shouldnot have send weapons into eastern Ukraine, Russia shouldnot have send men into eastern Ukraine and Russia shouldnot have send a BUK system over to shoot down the MH17. End of story.
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MrHMSH
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:35 pm

tu204 wrote:
In regards to someone being tried for this at the Hague - good luck on that. I wish to be a millionaire but that probaby isn't happening.
The fact that Russia was not included in this joint comission makes it illagitimate at best.

Everyone is forgetting that a bunch of Ukranian Army units deserted to the rebels. So it's a good question on who shot down MH17?

If Ukraine has a civil war going on, they should have closed their airspace. End of story.


Can we not even get interesting or realistic trolls? Sometimes it's so crude you wonder why they bother.

Russia was not included because 'supposedly' they are not involved.

The plane was made in the USA
It had British engines
It's Malaysian registered, plus was headed to Malaysia
It originated in Amsterdam and many victims were Dutch
And it crashed in Ukraine.

So unless Russia or its cronies shot the plane down, they have no right to be involved whatsoever.
 
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ssteve
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:20 pm

Hey, does anyone have a fox to guard my henhouse? I'm not sure my current hen security regime is legitimate.
 
salttee
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:27 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Russia has a collective Napoleon complex, Russia was a major power in the Soviet era, nowadays it is a regional power, the UK went through the same: even the Netherlands. Well, learn to live with it. The world isn't against Russia, that is made up by Russian propaganda. Nothing is more effective to form a solid group than creating an external enemy, and as I understand the Russians are bombarded with these kind of stories. A simple fact is that Russia isn't that important.......................

As an aside to the MH-17 discussions here I would like to re-post this snippet of yours (which I wholeheartedly agree with) and post our most vehement Russian troll's tag line alongside, as the perfect validation for your above analysis: "I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov".

This pretty much sums up the prevailing current Russian national psyche in relation to the rest of the world, don't you think?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:29 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
tu204 wrote:
In regards to someone being tried for this at the Hague - good luck on that. I wish to be a millionaire but that probaby isn't happening.
The fact that Russia was not included in this joint comission makes it illagitimate at best.

Everyone is forgetting that a bunch of Ukranian Army units deserted to the rebels. So it's a good question on who shot down MH17?

If Ukraine has a civil war going on, they should have closed their airspace. End of story.


Can we not even get interesting or realistic trolls? Sometimes it's so crude you wonder why they bother.

Russia was not included because 'supposedly' they are not involved.

The plane was made in the USA
It had British engines
It's Malaysian registered, plus was headed to Malaysia
It originated in Amsterdam and many victims were Dutch
And it crashed in Ukraine.

So unless Russia or its cronies shot the plane down, they have no right to be involved whatsoever.


You are thinking about the civilian investigation to the cause, which indeed included those countries, but also Russia. This is the criminal investigation something completely different. Only those countries whom lost citizens in this tragedy are included plus Ukraine because it was in their territory so in order to investigate their, you need to have them in your team. Conclusions reached are unanimous.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:39 pm

salttee wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Russia has a collective Napoleon complex, Russia was a major power in the Soviet era, nowadays it is a regional power, the UK went through the same: even the Netherlands. Well, learn to live with it. The world isn't against Russia, that is made up by Russian propaganda. Nothing is more effective to form a solid group than creating an external enemy, and as I understand the Russians are bombarded with these kind of stories. A simple fact is that Russia isn't that important.......................

As an aside to the MH-17 discussions here I would like to re-post this snippet of yours (which I wholeheartedly agree with) and post our most vehement Russian troll's tag line alongside, as the perfect validation for your above analysis: "I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov".

This pretty much sums up the prevailing current Russian national psyche in relation to the rest of the world, don't you think?


Well, kind off I guess. I for one hope that the Russian people will one day be fed up with all the propaganda and do away with that. If the Russian people truly want a county which is taken seriously in the rest of the world, then they are more then welcome to act accordingly and I am sure the rest of the world would welcome them back and deal with them as any other nation. If they want some kind of respect threw bullying other nations, then sanctions are the thing and in the end oil will be obsolete and then Russia has to produce something again. Most Russians are well educated to the basis is there to do something with it. But Putin is in the way of this, taking a large slice of the Russian economy and is on a path to maintain power and not to bring Russia to a higher plan.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
alfa164
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:38 pm

salttee wrote:
The BUK system was designed to operate in an environment where the enemy has anti-radar missiles; in this environment the guy who "locks on" to a hostile aircraft is vulnerable to anti radiation missiles. So the BUK system uses somewhat expendable TELARS which take on the dangerous part while the command and control functions are kept separate in the command vehicle (module). Thus in a hostile environment, the individual TELARS might be picked off one by one, but the remaining command function will continue directing the remaining TELARS thus keeping the system working at or near full capability. The stand alone mode occurs if the command vehicle gets taken out. In this case it is thought that it would be better to have the now blind remaining TELARS searching the sky in the general direction of where the attacking planes are expected - in the hopes they might get lucky and find something to launch on. This is better than nothing, but unless the TELAR operator can guess accurately where the threat is coming from, the stand alone TELAR would be in a hopeless position. Remember, the TELAR operator is now "looking through a straw". Stand alone mode would have its best chance of working against "massed groups" of aircraft: against a single plane in an unknown location, not so much. Stand alone mode could as well be described as desperation mode.


I cannot disagree. Our divergence is whether or not there is any evidence the TELARS was operating with the support of the sophisticated control module. As you point out, the TELARS is the "expendable" part of the operation, and may be used without the command vehicle in a "hostile environment" - or, as may be the case here, when the Russians were audacious enough to provide their cronies with an anti-aircraft BUK battery, but weren't ready to turn over the more valuable command and control module. In the instance here, that module would not have been "taken out", but would have simply never been supplied.

And, as you say, that leaves the TELARS to somewhat blindly search for something to aim for, relying on the BUK's less-sophisticated radar target seeking system... but these Keystone-Cop-rebels - with or without Russian handlers on the scene - wouldn't care. They heard or saw a high-flying aircraft, assumed it was a Ukrainian transport, and shot their missile. The rest is sordid history.

At this time, we can't know for sure if that is the scenario, or if the BUK was actually under more accurate control. The evidence we have, however, points to the former. The immediate claim by the "rebel" leader of a shoot-down of a Ukrainian transport plane - before anyone even realize MH17 was missing - coupled with the lack of motive for Russia to actually order that a civilian airliner, all makes it seem that MH17 was most probably an accidental target.

A tragic target. A tragic incident. And it is still Russia's responsibility to "come clean" - wherever that leads.
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iamlucky13
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:55 pm

alfa164 wrote:
And, as you say, that leaves the TELARS to somewhat blindly search for something to aim for, relying on the BUK's less-sophisticated radar target seeking system... but these Keystone-Cop-rebels - with or without Russian handlers on the scene - wouldn't care. They heard or saw a high-flying aircraft, assumed it was a Ukrainian transport, and shot their missile. The rest is sordid history.


As I understand, the TELAR unit's radar has a fairly limited field of view - neither a rotating antenna, nor a multi-panel phased array - and a shorter range than the primary radar. It's a guidance radar with limited ability to search on its own. I would presume it does have IFF capability. So the ability get a good sense of surrounding air space would be limited, but if you did spot something, you should be able to query its transponder.

As someone said, I'm sure teaching a person how to drive a TELAR, power up the radar, lock on a target, and launch is a fairly straightforward process. The timeline described by the JIT doesn't allow much time for even that, though. Actually using the system intelligently (paying attention to range, altitude, speed, and course, and understanding what that tells you about the target, knowing the different IFF codes, when and why they might be spoofed and when holding fire is prudent so as to avoid civilian deaths or fratricide, etc) would be quite a bit more complex.
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:35 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
And, as you say, that leaves the TELARS to somewhat blindly search for something to aim for, relying on the BUK's less-sophisticated radar target seeking system... but these Keystone-Cop-rebels - with or without Russian handlers on the scene - wouldn't care. They heard or saw a high-flying aircraft, assumed it was a Ukrainian transport, and shot their missile. The rest is sordid history.


As I understand, the TELAR unit's radar has a fairly limited field of view - neither a rotating antenna, nor a multi-panel phased array - and a shorter range than the primary radar. It's a guidance radar with limited ability to search on its own. I would presume it does have IFF capability. So the ability get a good sense of surrounding air space would be limited, but if you did spot something, you should be able to query its transponder.

As someone said, I'm sure teaching a person how to drive a TELAR, power up the radar, lock on a target, and launch is a fairly straightforward process. The timeline described by the JIT doesn't allow much time for even that, though. Actually using the system intelligently (paying attention to range, altitude, speed, and course, and understanding what that tells you about the target, knowing the different IFF codes, when and why they might be spoofed and when holding fire is prudent so as to avoid civilian deaths or fratricide, etc) would be quite a bit more complex.


Right, except that the TELAR itself does not have IFF identification capabilities; only the control system has that, as I understand it (I say that because, during and since the Cold War, there have been many variations of the system). The TELAR system itself is a basic, spot-a-moving-object-and-go-straight-to-it model, without having any built-in way of knowing the identification of the target.

And I agree with your assessment of the "on site" timing in this case; whether there was not enough time to supply and train the "rebels" to use the control module, or whether the Russians weren't enamored with providing them with such a sophisticated system, I suspect the BUK battery was operated independently.
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SCAT15F
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:49 pm

Robert Parry, the award winning journalist who helped break the Iran-Contra affair/CIA assassination manual/cocaine trafficking scandal picks apart the MH-17 report...

https://consortiumnews.com/2016/09/28/t ... 17-report/

"...The key conclusion of the Dutch-led criminal inquiry implicating Russia in the 2014 shootdown of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 relied heavily on cryptic telephone intercepts that were supplied by the Ukrainian intelligence service and were given incriminating meaning not clearly supported by the words.

The investigators also seemed to ignore other intercepts that conflicted with their conclusions, including one conversation that appeared to be referring to a Ukrainian convoy, not one commanded by ethnic Russian rebels, that was closing in on the Luhansk airport, placing Ukrainian troops deep inside rebel territory..."
 
salttee
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:12 pm

SCAT15F wrote:
Robert Parry, the award winning journalist who helped break the Iran-Contra affair/CIA assassination manual/cocaine trafficking scandal picks apart the MH-17 report............................

A quick look at Robert Parry's work reveals that he has been relentlessly writing opinion pieces promoting a pro-Russia line regarding the MH-17 story for over two years. It appears that it would be more newsworthy if he hadn't come out with a piece attacking the Dutch prosecutor's work.

https://www.newcoldwar.org/category/art ... ert-parry/
 
alfa164
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:21 pm

SCAT15F wrote:
Robert Parry, the award winning journalist who helped break the Iran-Contra affair/CIA assassination manual/cocaine trafficking scandal picks apart the MH-17 report...https://consortiumnews.com/2016/09/28/t ... 17-report/ "...The key conclusion of the Dutch-led criminal inquiry implicating Russia in the 2014 shootdown of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 relied heavily on cryptic telephone intercepts that were supplied by the Ukrainian intelligence service and were given incriminating meaning not clearly supported by the words. The investigators also seemed to ignore other intercepts that conflicted with their conclusions, including one conversation that appeared to be referring to a Ukrainian convoy, not one commanded by ethnic Russian rebels, that was closing in on the Luhansk airport, placing Ukrainian troops deep inside rebel territory..."


So... you found one already-discredited writer, and you think he is more credible than the multi-national committee of the countries who were directly involved in the loss, and who spend more than two years of careful, detailed analysis in producing the results. That would be laughable... were it not so sad.

The disinformation campaign is in full swing again... see how they work:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/art ... rolls.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ctory.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/magaz ... .html?_r=0
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iamlucky13
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:16 pm

alfa164 wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
It's a guidance radar with limited ability to search on its own. I would presume it does have IFF capability.


Right, except that the TELAR itself does not have IFF identification capabilities;


I find that hard to believe. Even the Stinger has an IFF module. The SA-11 is their main tactical SAM. In the sorts of environments it could be operating in, it has to be assumed it would be faced with the task of operating deprived of its primary radar, with a need to discriminate friend or foe.
 
alfa164
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:22 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
It's a guidance radar with limited ability to search on its own. I would presume it does have IFF capability.


Right, except that the TELAR itself does not have IFF identification capabilities;


I find that hard to believe. Even the Stinger has an IFF module. The SA-11 is their main tactical SAM. In the sorts of environments it could be operating in, it has to be assumed it would be faced with the task of operating deprived of its primary radar, with a need to discriminate friend or foe.


The assumption probably is that it would almost always be operated in conjunction with the separate control module. Unless something has been changed/updated, it remains a basic radar-guided missile system.

Perhaps someone currently involved may update that for us; I would be happy to know if anything had changed.
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777Jet
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:03 pm

Dutchy wrote:
777Jet wrote:
salttee wrote:
In the assumption that when you said: "You too" you really meant "You two", I will respond to your post.

My part in this conversation has been to give some pushback to a poster who has been trying to absolve the Russians of guilt consistently since the early days after the shootdown. His current gambit is to try and award responsibility to the Ukrainians for this tragedy; I see this as essentially propaganda. It is my firm belief that the Russians, or some level of their military command, intentionally ordered this shootdown. To try to muddy the waters by shifting blame to anyone else is an injustice and a disservice to those who died. To do anything to mitigate Russian guilt is out of order IMO.

I agree with all you have said above and I want to expand a bit on why the Ukrainians should not be cast in any way as villains here. They didn't create the conflict and they haven't done anything to expand the conflict, they, or their government is under enormous pressure from all directions, they are fighting a lopsided battle with the Russians and their focus is down at the street level, they are concerned with what the Russians are going to do next, but their noses were down on the ground so to speak. They had no way of knowing the Russians were about to shoot down an airliner: that came out of left field. They were blindsided along with everyone else. There was no reason to think that air traffic above 31,000 feet was in danger, anything that is that high is very hard to bring down (you need something like a BUK to do it), as far as they knew there was nothing in their territory that could reach that high.

As you point out, in this case MAS was not alone, many others were doing the same thing, the industry has done the same in many other hot spots over the years. That's just a fact of life. If anyone feels strongly that this needs to change then they should focus on that subject, maybe immolate themselves in front of FAA Hq or the Eurocontrol offices. But don't try to muddy the waters where MH-17 is concerned.


I'm not trying to make the Ukraine, nor MH, sound like villains. I'm just saying they also have questions to answer and their role in making the tragedy possible needs to be acknowledged - as many of the victims friends and family point out (several of them in interviews ask why the plane was flying over that area?). Of course whoever fired the BUK is responsible. Of course the plane would not have been brought down if the BUK wasn't fired. On the other hand, the plane wouldn't have been brought down if it wasn't there. Again, it's not like it was flying over the peaceful Swiss Alps or the Australian Outback. It was flying over an active war-zone that was getting more hostile day by day and in which another aircraft was shot down days earlier - to which salttee admits the whole world knew about. It was even known that BUKs were in the area and what they were capable of. The country in control of the airspace, as well as the airlines who use that airspace, do have a duty of care that was neglected.

As for unsurprising comments made by TheFlyingDisk, our good friend from Malaysia:


""Also, let it be on the record that MH was not alone in using the airspace around Donetsk at the time - SQ, LH, KL, even your beloved TG had flights flying through the area in the days before the disaster.""

I think even QF was flying through the area. But your "beloved" MH, your country's flag carrier, was the one that got caught out rolling the dice.


""You too need to realize that airlines depend on authorities to advise them whether it is safe to fly where they want to fly because an airline's intelligence may not be as extensive as what the authorities may have captured. And rerouting flights is not an easy undertaking - you need to get approvals from the respective governments to overfly their airspace, arrange payment etc etc, so it will take more than a few days to change the routing filed in advance.""

Yet Australian Airlines cancel flights with zero notice whenever the volcano close to Bali starts spewing ash. If airlines were serious about safety, MH17 could have been avoided. The BUK had plenty of targets to choose from - it should have had no targets to choose from. All the approvals and time it takes blah blah blah excuse is the aviation industry's 'tombstone mentality' at its most dangerous.


The problem, of course, is if you say none can overfly a war zone, then there is very little airspace to cross. Every time you board a plane you take a risk, if you want to avoid it, don't board it. Safety is always a compromise, safety isn't absolute.


Then let the investigators say that line to the families of the victims when they ask why planes were flying over that area at that time ;)

Not all war zones pose the same risk. If a plane was shot down days earlier and Russians were on the offensive in the area, I'd expect a bit more caution than flying over say a war zone in the Congo, especially with the hindsight that Russians have downed a commercial aircraft before - KAL007.
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777Jet
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:18 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
777Jet wrote:
Yet Australian Airlines cancel flights with zero notice whenever the volcano close to Bali starts spewing ash. If airlines were serious about safety, MH17 could have been avoided. The BUK had plenty of targets to choose from - it should have had no targets to choose from. All the approvals and time it takes blah blah blah excuse is the aviation industry's 'tombstone mentality' at its most dangerous.


Comparing a forced airspace closure & choosing different routes are apples & oranges. The authorities have come out & stated unequivocally that the airspace is closed, hence the airline just ground the aircraft at their home port & plan their next course of action without pressure. Here the airspace ISN'T closed. Hence airlines put their trust that authorities have vetted through the safety of the route. If you can't trust the authorities who else can you trust?


But if you have been paying attention you would know that there have been plenty of times over the past few years when the said Indonesian airspace near Bali remained open despite some volcanic ash cloud activity. Some airlines continued to fly to Bali. Others cancelled their flights despite the airspace remaining open. Hence, all of the airlines didn't put their trust in the authorities that the situation was safe. Some airlines decided for themselves to ground flights.

When the airspace is open, the airlines decide to fly or not and are therefore responsible for their decision to fly, especially when deciding to fly customers over such a war zone in which it was known that another plane was shot down just days earlier.
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salttee
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:21 am

Re: TELAR does not have IFF capabilities

iamlucky13 wrote:
I find that hard to believe. Even the Stinger has an IFF module. The SA-11 is their main tactical SAM. In the sorts of environments it could be operating in, it has to be assumed it would be faced with the task of operating deprived of its primary radar, with a need to discriminate friend or foe.

To expand on alpha164's response, a TELAR was never intended to operate without its search radar. The only exception to that is in wartime when the command vehicle with the search radar is out of operation. Then, as a last ditch resort, the TELAR would be required to operate on its own blindly searching the sky for a target to shoot at. This is only last ditch desperation stuff.

Picture being in a dark room with only one opening: a straw which has its other end outside the room. We are talking about a view that is a fraction of a degree in height or width, and that is the only view available. Now you look for aircraft, and those aircraft might be at any angular height. That is a valid comparison to what a BUK TELAR's view of the sky without a search radar available. Even if you momentarily "see" a target, you may not be able to find it again if you lose it before you switch the radar to tracked mode: remember it is a moving target.

I am very knowledgeable about this because I was an acquisition (search) radar operator on a US Army Nike site. On occasion I would wander over to the tracking radar van and sometimes the tracking radar guys would amuse themselves by scanning the sky looking for targets without anybody manning the acquisition radar. To make a long story short, it wasn't easy. With the Nike system, if the search radar was out of action, there was no provision or procedure to continue operation without it; in that case the whole site was out of action.

In reality a BUK site would also be out of action without its search radar function. The idea of sending a TELAR out on a mission without a connection to its command module is just internet fantasy.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:29 am

The view from flightglobal

Quote: "The governmental instinct to mitigate the political fall-out from such an event is understandable. But Russia’s ham-fisted attempts to distance itself from MH17 have left its administration looking as pathetic as a child who insists – with crumb-covered fingers – that he hasn’t been in the cookie-jar.
From the outset the Russian government’s contemptible attitude has been to treat the public like idiots. While a full and frank admission over its role would have been too much to expect, Russia has resorted to extraordinary cowardice."

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ke-429895/
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:27 am

tu204 wrote:
Everyone is forgetting that a bunch of Ukranian Army units deserted to the rebels. So it's a good question on who shot down MH17?


That is true, and it is possible that there were defectors that would know enough to operate a BUC system (of any generation). On the other hand, I disagree with those who claim that a well trained BUC operator had to fire the missile. In my view, and number of other technology control familiar people could be trained in basic fire control in a few hours (the military controls and safeties are similar in concept and even basic layout to many industrial control for dangerous equipment). It would be more likely that such people, rather than well trained operators, to misidentify a plane flying at the altitude of MH-17 as a military target.

SCAT15F wrote:
Robert Parry, the award winning journalist who helped break the Iran-Contra affair/CIA assassination manual/cocaine trafficking scandal picks apart the MH-17 report..."


Not exactly: So lets go over the facts that are not in dispute:

The Dutch Safety Board (DSB) Investigators found a number of warhead shrapnel and other non-aircraft metallic fragments, along with matching puncture holes in specific patterns. The warhead shrapnel pieces were of a specific shape that UNIQUE to the last 2 versions of the Russian produced 9N314M warhead; which is used in the 9M38 and 9M38M8 BUC Missile. There are three versions of this warhead, and they could not determine which of the more modern two versions of the warhead it was based on shrapnel alone as the differences is only in number of cubes and bow-tie pieces and weight of the overall warhead.

I note that Russia challenged this after publication of the MH-17 Report based on the 3 photographs of mangled pieces in the report. The DSB response (on the DSB MH-17 pages) was that they had many more pieces of warhead shrapnel (some recovered from within the pilots bodies from which they made their conclusion; and that they decided to not publish pictures of all fragments to not risk impeding the Criminal Investigation. Russia did not further challenge the conclusion.

The puncture nose area of the aircraft puncture holes are consistent with a specific version of the warhead (Design II at 70 kg), detonated within the design distance tolerances of its designed proximity fuse (this information is more fully explained in the DSB response to the Russian Challenge to the Report).

Some of the other non-aircraft metallic fragments were identified as parts specific to one BUC missile series. The DSB had the cooperation of the Current Russian Mfr of the BUC Missile (Almaz Antey) systems up to publication of their report. Other sources later reported that apparently that cooperation from the Mfr. vanished quickly after the publication of the DSB MH-17 report; and in fact that Almaz Antey has gone raised all kinds of other possibilities since. A problem with all those other theories, which Almaz Antey have not addressed, is that no other known warhead in the world has the specific shrapnel shape and size that punctured holes in MH-17 in a blast pattern consistent with its Design II BUC warhead and multiple shrapnel pieces recovered from MH-17 and crew. My opinion is that must be a rather "inconvenient truth" for them.

Design II and Design III of the 9N314M warhead are on the more modern versions of the BUC Missile.

The Joint Investigation Team (JIT) has concluded based on the specifics of the warhead and recovered BUC Missile parts lodged in the aircraft wreckage that ONLY Russian forces had the missile in its inventory that was used to shoot down MH-17. That it was not a Ukraine BUC Missile.

I note that some of my other sources indicate that it's most likely that the Ukrainian BUC Missiles still have Design 1 warheads - with a different shrapnel shape and size. Neither the US nor Russia tends to sell its "best and latest" versions to lessor "partners."

So, a key fact is that this missile came from Russia, and not Ukraine.

Now is it possible that perhaps others than Russian Military personnel fired the missile. Yes; but likely only with overt permission from High Ranking Russian Military Officers (Is the Russian Military going to allow someone to steel one of their modern missile systems and transport it a long way from home; are they going to allow someone else to "just fire" their missiles?).

Is it possible that the exact story, firing location, and the timeline of how the BUC launcher got where it got and then was removed is not correct. Yes; but, there is some kind of of story, a firing location, and timeline behind the moving into the area (even if on the Russian side of the border), firing of a Russian Military Missile at a Civilian Aircraft, and relocation of the BUC launcher afterwords.

So perhaps Robert Perry has identified a detail problem with the JIT story. As JIT indicates, they would like to talk to about 100 people and figure out the exact story...

Hope this helps, and have a great day,
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:04 am

Apparently there have been some news on the Criminal Investigation done by the Dutch government, which identifies at least 100 people responsible. Although it has no names, as their role has not been determined yet, but it should have been done in the upcoming months.
So there are some progresses in the investigation (already the technical one has been finished, now it comes the judiciary one). In my opinion, the results of this criminal investigation will be denied by Russian, as the Netherlands have no "imperium" in this investigation. Is a legal term that means something similar to jurisdiction. Ukrainians should have done their investigation (using Ukrainian law and resources).
Ukraine should off course be blamed by not closing its air space, and by not properly controlling its borders, specially when it comes to ilegal weapons (specially large military weapons) trade.

An example would be: if we all know many narcotics in the US enter through the Mexico/US border, is only Mexico to blame? Or isn't it the US who doesn't patrol it properly??? I think it should be considered a shared responsibility. Russian (if proven) for selling/sending weapons to Eastern Ukrainians, and Kiev government for not taking immediate action on that. Because narcotics are in the US, and many of them come from Latin America, being Mexico the only country which borders the US, and not only a drug producer but a drug exporter...

I wish similar attention was given to those who perished in Metrojet (A321 SSH-LED) almost one year ago, from which we have not even a clue of what happen or who is to blame. Are those (mostly Russian) less news-worthy than the Dutch tourists?
The A321 was also shot down, mostly by a bomb, by some rebels (call it ISIS if you will)... There is almost nothing, neither in the news, not even here in Airliners.net
 
salttee
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:05 am

eielef wrote:
Ukraine should off course be blamed by not closing its air space, and by not properly controlling its borders, specially when it comes to ilegal weapons (specially large military weapons) trade.

Whether or not Ukraine carries any responsibility for this shootdown or not has already been a topic of discussion here, so I'll refer you to above; but now you are adding a new twist: that Ukraine should be held responsible for "not properly controlling its borders." This sounds like something out of Monty Python. Assuming that you are speaking as a friend of Russia, I have to say that takes a lot of nerve.

Russia, the country with the largest land mass of any country on the planet, is conducting war on Ukraine in the hopes of gaining a bit more prime real estate. In the process of conducting its little war, it is becoming clearer every day that they moved an air defense missile system into Ukraine's territory - that Russia currently controls - and with that missile system they brought down a civilian airliner, murdering 298 innocent and un-involved civilians in the process. Now the friends of Russia want to cast blame on the victim of Russia's aggression for not keeping the Russians out. Wow! That's a bit like blaming a young lady for soiling her rapist's pants.

eielef wrote:
I wish similar attention was given to those who perished in Metrojet (A321 SSH-LED) almost one year ago, from which we have not even a clue of what happen or who is to blame. Are those (mostly Russian) less news-worthy than the Dutch tourists? The A321 was also shot down, mostly by a bomb, by some rebels (call it ISIS if you will)... There is almost nothing, neither in the news, not even here in Airliners.net

The reason this story has withered in the news media is because Russia wants to to "go away". Russia is a country which has had a long long history of controlling suppressing and even manufacturing news and the current Russian administration is no slacker in that regard. If they wanted this story to be alive, it would be alive, but they would prefer to sweep it under the rug. Nobody in their right minds would expect Egypt to conduct an effective transparent investigation, so the onus is on Russia if there is to be an investigation. But Putin would rather not generate stories that remind his citizens that somebody downed a Russian airliner - and Putin is powerless to do anything about it. The result is: there is nothing left to discuss about Metrojet 9268 that hasn't already been said.

I was about to give him credit at least for not invading Iraq, but just as I reached for the keyboard, I realized that in a very real sense he has invaded Syria; however, comment on that subject belongs in a different forum.
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:09 am

777Jet wrote:
Then let the investigators say that line to the families of the victims when they ask why planes were flying over that area at that time ;)


That one is below the belt and totally uncalled for. Safety /risk is always a balance between chance of it happening and the possible end result, e.g. we don't check our care every time we use it, because if something is wrong, we just place our car along the road and call assistance, so the chance of something going wrong might be relative high, but the result is annoying but nothing more then that. So we accept the risk. For the families of the victims can't think about this rationally and that is perfectly understandably, because statistic doesn't anything about a specific victim. So that is why your comment was uncalled for and totally not helpful here.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:32 am

salttee wrote:
Whether or not Ukraine carries any responsibility for this shootdown or not has already been a topic of discussion here, so I'll refer you to above; but now you are adding a new twist: that Ukraine should be held responsible for "not properly controlling its borders." This sounds like something out of Monty Python. Assuming that you are speaking as a friend of Russia, I have to say that takes a lot of nerve. Russia, the country with the largest land mass of any country on the planet, is conducting war on Ukraine in the hopes of gaining a bit more prime real estate. In the process of conducting its little war, it is becoming clearer every day that they moved an air defense missile system into Ukraine's territory - that Russia currently controls - and with that missile system they brought down a civilian airliner, murdering 298 innocent and un-involved civilians in the process. Now the friends of Russia want to cast blame on the victim of Russia's aggression for not keeping the Russians out. Wow! That's a bit like blaming a young lady for soiling her rapist's pants.

Russia has no real nor clear interest in Ukraine. The war is a civil one, as most Ukrainians are fed up with their government, corruption and extreme poverty. Yes, some believe they will be part of the European Europe one day, but they wont. Is more likely to have countries like Kosovo first than Ukraine. So far, Ukraine is considered by many the "Brothel of Europe".
What would have won Russia by downing the plane? It was already hated in Europe by the annexation of Crimea, but killing 298 people (all of them innocent and foreigners) has absolutely no point. Russia is still facing US and EU backed economical sanctions for what has done in Ukraine, and, after 5 semesters, the situation (economically speaking) is bad, but slowly improving. Ukraine, which has lots of EU/US founding, is still bankrupted, and worse: owes LOTS of money to Russia. Gas bills mostly.

salttee wrote:
The reason this story has withered in the news media is because Russia wants to to "go away". Russia is a country which has had a long long history of controlling suppressing and even manufacturing news and the current Russian administration is no slacker in that regard. If they wanted this story to be alive, it would be alive, but they would prefer to sweep it under the rug. Nobody in their right minds would expect Egypt to conduct an effective transparent investigation, so the onus is on Russia if there is to be an investigation. But Putin would rather not generate stories that remind his citizens that somebody downed a Russian airliner - and Putin is powerless to do anything about it. The result is: there is nothing left to discuss about Metrojet 9268 that hasn't already been said. I was about to give him credit at least for not invading Iraq, but just as I reached for the keyboard, I realized that in a very real sense he has invaded Syria; however, comment on that subject belongs in a different forum.

I don't agree. If it was so, why would European Airlines still avoid flying to Egypt (e.g. KLM or BA), because it is considered unsafe? Have Egyptian Airports reached the standards of security asked by the international market in order to be considered safe? And that something like Metrojet can be avoided never to happen again, in any airport in the country?
Don't you feel those 224 families are still grieving and deserve answers?
I wonder who has gave the terrorists who, apparently bombed the A321, weapons and support.
Russia, btw, didn't invaded Syria. It was asked by the Syrian government to support them in the Civil War ongoing in the country, when no-one else (but Iran) wanted to support the government, BUT supported the "rebel forces in Syria".

I find some parallel here: Poroshenko (President of Ukraine) needs to be respected and supported, and that includes blaming Russians by downing a plane in HIS country, by HIS people (rebels or not, they were Ukrainians). Al-Assad (President of Syria) need to be deposed ASAP, and we must be fine with it, aiding rebels with weaponry and money, in order to get away. And we must also blame Russians for supporting Al-Assad.

So, what should be the ideal role? To mind Russia's own business, as it did between 1989 and 2008? It went awfully wrong. Wars, specially those fought abroad, are the game we all want to play, but few can afford. Ask Americans, French, or British if they don't agree. Remember Korea, Vietnam, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, and over 120 countries more since the end of WW2.
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:41 am

Just a reminder to everyone that this is an aviation forum in a thread discussing the report released on MH17. We all recognize that this is a politically charged topic, but please keep your posts focused on the relevant topic and avoid long ranting political posts. Those discussions belong in the non-av forum, not here.

atcsundevil ✈️
 
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Dutchy
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:50 am

salttee wrote:
eielef wrote:
Ukraine should off course be blamed by not closing its air space, and by not properly controlling its borders, specially when it comes to ilegal weapons (specially large military weapons) trade.

Whether or not Ukraine carries any responsibility for this shootdown or not has already been a topic of discussion here, so I'll refer you to above; but now you are adding a new twist: that Ukraine should be held responsible for "not properly controlling its borders." This sounds like something out of Monty Python. Assuming that you are speaking as a friend of Russia, I have to say that takes a lot of nerve.

Russia, the country with the largest land mass of any country on the planet, is conducting war on Ukraine in the hopes of gaining a bit more prime real estate. In the process of conducting its little war, it is becoming clearer every day that they moved an air defense missile system into Ukraine's territory - that Russia currently controls - and with that missile system they brought down a civilian airliner, murdering 298 innocent and un-involved civilians in the process. Now the friends of Russia want to cast blame on the victim of Russia's aggression for not keeping the Russians out. Wow! That's a bit like blaming a young lady for soiling her rapist's pants..


I concur and a good analogy! Like I said before, Ukraine has had a slab on the wrist for not closing the airspace and lessons have been learned to prevent similar death. Not properly controlling its borders is ridiculous, next step is indeed blaming Ukraine for letting Russia annex it. Using this kind of logic is very dangerous at best.

salttee wrote:
eielef wrote:
I wish similar attention was given to those who perished in Metrojet (A321 SSH-LED) almost one year ago, from which we have not even a clue of what happen or who is to blame. Are those (mostly Russian) less news-worthy than the Dutch tourists? The A321 was also shot down, mostly by a bomb, by some rebels (call it ISIS if you will)... There is almost nothing, neither in the news, not even here in Airliners.net

The reason this story has withered in the news media is because Russia wants to to "go away". Russia is a country which has had a long long history of controlling suppressing and even manufacturing news and the current Russian administration is no slacker in that regard. If they wanted this story to be alive, it would be alive, but they would prefer to sweep it under the rug. Nobody in their right minds would expect Egypt to conduct an effective transparent investigation, so the onus is on Russia if there is to be an investigation. But Putin would rather not generate stories that remind his citizens that somebody downed a Russian airliner - and Putin is powerless to do anything about it. The result is: there is nothing left to discuss about Metrojet 9268 that hasn't already been said.


Eielef is placing Russia again in the underdog position (Calimero-syndrom), irritating. The Metrojet has been investigated, people have been arrested, so what is there left to report? The MH17, Russia keeps lying time again and again, they get got every time. The MH17 incident must be investigated till nothing more is to be investigated, Russia will never admit any guild, so the evidence needs to be tighter then tight. The JIT did a very good job until now, the results are 100%, so now the focus shifts to who done it, the how is now known.

In my opinion Russia should have admitted guild from the get go, then there was nothing left to report. Now they have dragged it out and out, so be it. The persons whom did it, will get a fair trail, whether they elect to be there or not.

Eielef should think very long and hard what he/she really thinks about this. The cold hard facts.

salttee wrote:
I was about to give him credit at least for not invading Iraq, but just as I reached for the keyboard, I realized that in a very real sense he has invaded Syria; however, comment on that subject belongs in a different forum.


I think you are wrong here, I think the Assad regime has Putin by its balls, not the other way around. Just look at what the Russians are doing and why. Syria is one of the few friends Russia has in the world and the only one in that region. But we'll see how this plays out.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:53 am

eielef wrote:
Russia has no real nor clear interest in Ukraine.


Other than considering it part of Russia and annexing part of it? Other than dreading the prospect of Ukraine joining the EU, or even worse, NATO?

I've yet to hear or see any serious counter to the information and video/photos presented by the JIT.

atcsundevil wrote:
Just a reminder to everyone that this is an aviation forum in a thread discussing the report released on MH17. We all recognize that this is a politically charged topic, but please keep your posts focused on the relevant topic and avoid long ranting political posts. Those discussions belong in the non-av forum, not here.


With all due respect, atcsundevil, there's actually very little to discuss from an aviation perspective. There's no aviation mystery as to what happened to MH17 (unlike MH370), so it's inevitable the focus of discussion is on who exactly shot down the 777. Maybe the topic should be moved to non-av?
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:11 am

atcsundevil wrote:
Just a reminder to everyone that this is an aviation forum in a thread discussing the report released on MH17. We all recognize that this is a politically charged topic, but please keep your posts focused on the relevant topic and avoid long ranting political posts. Those discussions belong in the non-av forum, not here.

atcsundevil ✈️


Unavoidable with this topic. The Russian state is involved. The Russian ambassador has been send for by the Dutch minister for foreign affairs, he has been told that Russian state must work with the investigation team and not debunking overwhelming evidence and denouncing the investigation on rubbish. The Dutch ambassador to Russia has been summit as a reaction, we'll see what happens there.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:14 am

scbriml wrote:
With all due respect, atcsundevil, there's actually very little to discuss from an aviation perspective. There's no aviation mystery as to what happened to MH17 (unlike MH370), so it's inevitable the focus of discussion is on who exactly shot down the 777. Maybe the topic should be moved to non-av?

I believe the discussion as it relates to the report is relevant enough, but at this point, it would seem that most of that discussion has appeared to have run its course. My goal was to encourage obvious political discourse to move over to non-av in a perhaps vane attempt to keep this thread open.

You are correct though, unfortunately the true aviation discussion surrounding this accident is sparse. The report includes some very detailed information, but in the end, pretty much everyone had their minds made up one way or another before it was ever even released. It will take more than this to settle the argument, and even then, it's unlikely we'll ever see any kind of consensus or resolution...not until some major political shifts occur, at the very least. It's safe to say that this is not a typical accident investigation, so it doesn't quite warrant the usual 5,000 comments of speculative discussion this forum has become so (in)famous for.
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:06 pm

Dutch:

De Australische minister van Buitenlandse Zaken, Julie Bishop, denkt dat de namen van de verantwoordelijken voor het neerhalen van vlucht MH17 voor het eind van jaar bekend zullen zijn.
''Tegen het einde van het jaar, misschien begin volgend jaar, zal de lijst van diegenen die we verantwoordelijk houden bevestigd zijn en dan moet er vervolging plaatsvinden'', zei Bishop zondag tegen de Australische zender ABC.


Rough translation:

The Australian minister of foreign affairs, Julie Bishop, thinks that the names of the people held responsible for downing the MH17 will be known before the year is out.
"Towards the end of the year, or maybe at the beginning of next year, the list of the people we held responsible should be confirmed and then the prosecution of them should take place" Said Bishop sunday on the Australian television station ABC.

Link: http://www.nu.nl/vliegramp-oekraine/433 ... eling.html

That seems to be a tat optimistic in my view. I feel it will take a few years to reach that point, since Russia will resit every step more strongly from now on.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: Irrefutable proof: MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 2:14 pm

Dutchy wrote:
777Jet wrote:
Then let the investigators say that line to the families of the victims when they ask why planes were flying over that area at that time ;)


That one is below the belt and totally uncalled for. Safety /risk is always a balance between chance of it happening and the possible end result, e.g. we don't check our care every time we use it, because if something is wrong, we just place our car along the road and call assistance, so the chance of something going wrong might be relative high, but the result is annoying but nothing more then that. So we accept the risk. For the families of the victims can't think about this rationally and that is perfectly understandably, because statistic doesn't anything about a specific victim. So that is why your comment was uncalled for and totally not helpful here.


Your words: "Every time you board a plane you take a risk, if you want to avoid it, don't board it."

Don't try to take the moral high ground by calling my reply below the belt. If you are going to offer the above line as an answer in here as to why planes were flying over that area at the time, then you should be prepared to stand by your words and use the same line if asked the same question by one the victims families. You sound like the typical
Politician that changes their tone from audience to audience and then insults the replies of others when you get challenged.
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:01 pm

I would like to second the suggestion that this be moved to non-aviation. I would not want to see this thread closed; I believe it is serving a good purpose.
 
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:15 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
You are correct though, unfortunately the true aviation discussion surrounding this accident is sparse. .


I disagree. This report, and the discussion surrounding ir, have been very informative in providing more information about the capabilities of the BUK system; the restrictions on airspace at the time of the incident, and the evidence considered by the team who examined all the circumstances that lead to this tragic crash.

While a handful of posters are determined to continue their misinformation and misdirection campaign, the other information here is both informative and valuable.

atcsundevil wrote:
The report includes some very detailed information, but in the end, pretty much everyone had their minds made up one way or another before it was ever even released. It will take more than this to settle the argument, and even then, it's unlikely we'll ever see any kind of consensus or resolution...not until some major political shifts occur, at the very least. It's safe to say that this is not a typical accident investigation, so it doesn't quite warrant the usual 5,000 comments of speculative discussion this forum has become so (in)famous for.


The report is quite detailed, and I am not convinced that "pretty much everyone had their minds made up" prior to its release. Indeed, there are still those posters who insist that the facts presented are wrong... but they make those statements with no evidence to support their cause. I agree that "this is not a typical accident investigation", because this is not a typical "accident". That is all the more reason it will be a topic of interest, speculation, and - unfortunately - disinformation and outright falsehoods. To say it "doesn't quite warrant...5,000 comments" - or any fixed number of comments - does a disservice to members who do have an interest in the subject.

While I would wish that there were fewer interruptions by the (paid, or otherwise) trolls who try to misdirect and mislead the talk, that is not the nature of the internet - or of A.net. They will continue to spread their drivel, and other posters will continue to challenge - or ignore - it.

And, to me, 5,000 comments is a show of continuing interest; it is a topic of interest to many members.
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:23 pm

tu204 wrote:
In regards to someone being tried for this at the Hague - good luck on that. I wish to be a millionaire but that probaby isn't happening.
The fact that Russia was not included in this joint comission makes it illagitimate at best.

Everyone is forgetting that a bunch of Ukranian Army units deserted to the rebels. So it's a good question on who shot down MH17?

If Ukraine has a civil war going on, they should have closed their airspace. End of story.


Nobody forced MH17 to fly through the airspace, and nobody forced the rebels to fire on a civilian jetliner like untrained idiots.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
salttee
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:49 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
nobody forced the rebels to fire on a civilian jetliner like untrained idiots.

Why do you say "the rebels (fired) on a civilian jetliner"? People keep repeating this as if it is a known fact. If there is any evidence of any kind to support the idea that it was "rebels" who manned the 53rd AD Brigade's TELAR and fired on MH-17, I'd like to see it. From what I've been able to discern, somebody somewhere on the internet came up with this idea out of thin air - and everyone else has been parroting that idea ever since without giving it a thought.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:11 pm

salttee wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
nobody forced the rebels to fire on a civilian jetliner like untrained idiots.

Why do you say "the rebels (fired) on a civilian jetliner"? People keep repeating this as if it is a known fact. If there is any evidence of any kind to support the idea that it was "rebels" who manned the 53rd AD Brigade's TELAR and fired on MH-17, I'd like to see it. From what I've been able to discern, somebody somewhere on the internet came up with this idea out of thin air - and everyone else has been parroting that idea ever since without giving it a thought.


Fine - whomever fired the missile. I don't spend time worrying about who. That's what the investigations are for.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
salttee
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:16 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
I don't spend time worrying about who.

Really?
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:35 pm

salttee wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I don't spend time worrying about who.

Really?


Should I? Does me spending a few days researching all aspects of this tragedy change even one speck of the outcome?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:27 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
salttee wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
nobody forced the rebels to fire on a civilian jetliner like untrained idiots.

Why do you say "the rebels (fired) on a civilian jetliner"? People keep repeating this as if it is a known fact. If there is any evidence of any kind to support the idea that it was "rebels" who manned the 53rd AD Brigade's TELAR and fired on MH-17, I'd like to see it. From what I've been able to discern, somebody somewhere on the internet came up with this idea out of thin air - and everyone else has been parroting that idea ever since without giving it a thought.


Fine - whomever fired the missile. I don't spend time worrying about who. That's what the investigations are for.


You are correct, until the investigators are ready to provide us with the names (rank?) and nationality, I am not going to speculate, the facts are delivered by the JIT and that's what is known, nothing more. The 53rd AD Brigade isn't a fact yet, just from Bellicat, not from the JIT.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:33 pm

Dutchy wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
salttee wrote:
Why do you say "the rebels (fired) on a civilian jetliner"? People keep repeating this as if it is a known fact. If there is any evidence of any kind to support the idea that it was "rebels" who manned the 53rd AD Brigade's TELAR and fired on MH-17, I'd like to see it. From what I've been able to discern, somebody somewhere on the internet came up with this idea out of thin air - and everyone else has been parroting that idea ever since without giving it a thought.


Fine - whomever fired the missile. I don't spend time worrying about who. That's what the investigations are for.


You are correct, until the investigators are ready to provide us with the names (rank?) and nationality, I am not going to speculate, the facts are delivered by the JIT and that's what is known, nothing more. The 53rd AD Brigade isn't a fact yet, just from Bellicat, not from the JIT.


Again - fine. Honestly, I have a lot of doubt, regardless of how the investigation unfolds, about what A.net will say anyhow. There are clearly a variety of strong opinions here, including those of paid shills, and nobody is going to change the minds of a lot of them.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:02 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

Fine - whomever fired the missile. I don't spend time worrying about who. That's what the investigations are for.


You are correct, until the investigators are ready to provide us with the names (rank?) and nationality, I am not going to speculate, the facts are delivered by the JIT and that's what is known, nothing more. The 53rd AD Brigade isn't a fact yet, just from Bellicat, not from the JIT.


Again - fine. Honestly, I have a lot of doubt, regardless of how the investigation unfolds, about what A.net will say anyhow. There are clearly a variety of strong opinions here, including those of paid shills, and nobody is going to change the minds of a lot of them.



Well I will repeat myself: "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” ― Daniel Patrick Moynihan

So I will only believe the official investigation, the might be biased and might have an alternative motive.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:13 pm

Dutchy wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

You are correct, until the investigators are ready to provide us with the names (rank?) and nationality, I am not going to speculate, the facts are delivered by the JIT and that's what is known, nothing more. The 53rd AD Brigade isn't a fact yet, just from Bellicat, not from the JIT.


Again - fine. Honestly, I have a lot of doubt, regardless of how the investigation unfolds, about what A.net will say anyhow. There are clearly a variety of strong opinions here, including those of paid shills, and nobody is going to change the minds of a lot of them.



Well I will repeat myself: "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” ― Daniel Patrick Moynihan

So I will only believe the official investigation, the might be biased and might have an alternative motive.


My apologies, but I'm not clear if you are saying you would believe an official investigation or you think it will be biased? "...the might be biased..." is throwing me off.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
salttee
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:47 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
My apologies, but I'm not clear if you are saying you would believe an official investigation or you think it will be biased? "...the might be biased..." is throwing me off.
He is suggesting that Bellingcat might be biased.

IMO there is about as much chance of that as there is of the JIT people not being willing to face an unpleasant truth and so holding back on the findings.

I am only interested in the literal truth, if Bellingcat gets it right, that's fine with me and I think that they were exemplary in the manner they revealed their research, in effect we were given the raw data, not just the findings. I can only hope the JIT final report (if there is one) will be so forthcoming and if their finding shy's away from facing the complete and whole truth, I will vocalize my opposition. As an aside, I bet you two are about the only persons on the planet who are aware of the MH-17 shootdown yet remain unconcerned about who did it - and that's the only thing left of any importance about MH-17 for me.

I cannot understand the extreme reluctance of so many people to recognize that there is virtually no chance that the Russian military loaned out one of their TELARS to civilians to do a job for which the TELAR would have been completely unsuited. Why are so many trivial details about MH-17 questioned and hashed over in such minute detail, yet the basis of the scenario assumed by most everyone to have taken place, has no foundation whatsoever?
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:54 pm

salttee wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
My apologies, but I'm not clear if you are saying you would believe an official investigation or you think it will be biased? "...the might be biased..." is throwing me off.
He is suggesting that Bellingcat might be biased.

IMO there is about as much chance of that as there is of the JIT people not being willing to face an unpleasant truth and so holding back on the findings.

I am only interested in the literal truth, if Bellingcat gets it right, that's fine with me and I think that they were exemplary in the manner they revealed their research, in effect we were given the raw data, not just the findings. I can only hope the JIT final report (if there is one) will be so forthcoming and if their finding shy's away from facing the complete and whole truth, I will vocalize my opposition. As an aside, I bet you two are about the only persons on the planet who are aware of the MH-17 shootdown yet remain unconcerned about who did it - and that's the only thing left of any importance about MH-17 for me.

I cannot understand the extreme reluctance of so many people to recognize that there is virtually no chance that the Russian military loaned out one of their TELARS to civilians to do a job for which the TELAR would have been completely unsuited. Why are so many trivial details about MH-17 questioned and hashed over in such minute detail, yet the basis of the scenario assumed by most everyone to have taken place, has no foundation whatsoever?


I am "unconcerned" because I'm not in control. It doesn't mean I don't care, per se.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
alfa164
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:55 am

salttee wrote:
I cannot understand the extreme reluctance of so many people to recognize that there is virtually no chance that the Russian military loaned out one of their TELARS to civilians to do a job for which the TELAR would have been completely unsuited. Why are so many trivial details about MH-17 questioned and hashed over in such minute detail, yet the basis of the scenario assumed by most everyone to have taken place, has no foundation whatsoever?


Your version of "extreme reluctance" is someone else's version of "waiting for the facts"... or, perhaps, "not jumping to unproven conclusions".

I have personally seen (and heard) enough proof to be satisfied that it was a Russian BUK, transported across the border into Ukraine shortly before the incident, that brought down MH17. I have no doubt that same unit returned to Russia as soon as it was determined it was a civilian airliner, not a Ukrainian transport, that was hit. And it could have very well been "loaned" to Putin's cronies and mercenaries; albeit possibly without the much-more-valuable control system.

I would not be surprised if some - at least some - Russian soldiers accompanied the vehicle, but that has not been proven. Nor has it been proven that that the BUK was accompanied by its control vehicle; I personally do not think it was, because, if that vehicle were present, it would have surely identified the target aircraft as a civilian passenger plane. Despite what some others believe, I don't see any evidence - or any reason - why either the Russians or their "rebel" cronies and mercenaries would target an airliner from Malaysia. Indeed, anyone with any sense - and I do believe Putin has sense, although it is accompanied by a deranged determination to make enemies - would see such an operation would only lead to international outrage - and would ostracize Russia even further than its foray into Crimea.

So most everyone who has followed the story can agree that it was a Russian BUK, brought into Ukraine shortly before the tragedy, and returned almost immediately afterward. The rest: who fired it? Was the control module present, or did it depend on its on-board radar? Who pulled the trigger (or, more correctly, pushed the button)?... all that is still to be proven.

In the meantime, a lot of people will speculate, and that is fine. I just hope we don't lose sight of the 298 innocent victims... and we don't forget that, someday, the perpetrators must be brought to justice... although I suspect the actual parties present may already be dead... or shuffled off to Siberia...
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
salttee
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Re: JIT convinced to have Irrefutable proof that MH17 was downed by BUK Missile in rebel controlled location

Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:52 am

alpha, if you are going to argue against theories presented here, it seems to me that you should have a better understanding of what those theories are. You are a bit off when you say:
alfa164 wrote:
it could have very well been "loaned" to Putin's cronies and mercenaries; albeit possibly without the much-more-valuable control system....................The rest: who fired it? Was the control module present, or did it depend on its on-board radar?

The point I have been making in the last dozen or so posts in this thread is a technical one, it is that without a search radar a TELAR is blind. It is as useless as a blind infantryman. It is totally without logic to believe that "rebels" would have been given use of a stand alone TELAR; they could not make any use of a TELAR without some way of finding targets. The radar that exists on the TELAR has one purpose: to lock on to and track the target that has been designated by the command vehicle. The TELAR radar initially feeds that target location to the launcher so it can point the launch in the right direction and then to the missile (with constant updates) until the missile's terminal guidance takes over. What it cannot do is search for targets except in a most cumbersome inefficient way. It is unreasonable to think that the Russian military would attempt to use a BUK M1* as a standalone weapon. It is for this reason that the premise of "rebels" being given the use of a BUK TELAR cannot be considered a possibility.

*(There is a more modern version of the BUK system, the BUK M2, which has a phased array radar which probably can be used as a search radar, but the pictures from Bellingcat and the pictures from Paris Match magazine show a BUK M1, not an M2.)

Again I want to point out that there never has been a shred of evidence to even indicate, let alone support, the premise that "rebels" were given the use of a TELAR; that idea has been invented out of whole cloth. The rebels did it by accident theory is only supported by wishful thinking that the Russians couldn't have been this barbaric, and wishful thinking is just that: wishful thinking. And yes there are potential motives, they were discussed in posts 24 & 25 of this thread.

As far as criminal prosecution goes I agree that nobody will ever be brought to justice, but for different reasons than yours, Russia is going to continue to stonewall it. Unless Russia becomes a liberal democracy in the next 40 years or so, the perpetrators will live perfectly normal Russian lives.

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