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wedgetail737
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 3:52 am

It's a long shot (no pun intended), but I'm hoping for SYD-SEA. QF mentioned this link when the Dreamliners first came out.. QF codeshares with AS. And can't use the proximity of YVR as a factor as there are other international airlines that serve both SEA and YVR.
 
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qf789
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 4:22 am

mpdpilot wrote:
I am excited to see how Qantas uses the 789 but 8 is a pretty small order. As I mentioned above I would think that 12 or more would serve them better.


While 8 is considered a small order by todays standard QF has really never ordered aircraft in huge volumes but only when they have needed to. For example the initial order for the 737-800 was for 15, today they operate 75 of them. The same will apply with the 787. When the 8 were ordered they were intended to replace 5 744's and to open 1 or 2 new routes. Since the order QF has decided to keep flying the 744's a bit longer due to the low cost of fuel, both VH-OEB and VH-OJM were due to be retired this year however back in February QF decided to extend their flying lives. I think we will see both the frames leave the fleet sometime in 2018. The other 3 nonER frames being VH-OJS, VH-OJT and VH-OJU are currently around 16-17 years old so they probably will be good until around 2020 but I guess that will depend on the price of fuel. QF still have 15 options and 30 purchase rights for the 787. Some of these options/purchase rights will be used to replace A330's as well which wont be until the early to mid 2020's.

QF have also been on record saying that they want to see how the 787 performs before ordering anymore
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hkcanadaexpat
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 4:44 am

Its important to note that QF has said all along that it will only convert its purchase rights/protected delivery slots for 787s to firm orders as they come due. There is no financial benefit and/or strategic reason for them to be converted any sooner. IIRC, the purchase rights expire approximately 24 months prior to the actual delivery slot they represent.
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Gemuser
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:02 am

mpdpilot wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
The problem is "CAPITAL EXPENDITURE". Raising capital in Australia is always an issue especially for capital intensive industries like airlines and especially so for Qantas which must remain at least, 50% Australian owned under the "Sale of Qantas" Act.


Why is that different in Australia?

Oh God! OK, super condensed version!
We are a very small country, 22-23 million people. Yes we have a large land area, about the same size as the 48 contiguous US states, but about 10% of the water. Two thirds of the country is desert or semi desert. This means that both people and water are in clumps spread out over great distances. In 2010 I stood on the shore of Lake Baikal in Siberia [the largest lake in the world, in terms of volume] and was looking at more water in one place than on the whole continent of Australia! That's how little water we have. We are also a long way from anywhere, 8 hours to SIN, 10 hours to HNL/TYO, 14 hours to LAX, 23 hours to Europe.
What all this means is that we cannot generate all the capital internally to meet all our needs and so are very dependent on other people capital, which comes at a cost of course. This makes all enterprises in the country very conscious of the need for capital, none more so than aviation & QF has the extra problem of the "Sale" Act, so capital expenditures have to be managed very carefully. Actually an order for 8 wide bodies at once is an historically large order for QF.
This is vastly simplified of course.

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wenders825
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:27 am

mpdpilot wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
SYD/MEL-LAX will NOT be B789, already A380 and will be for at least the next decade.


I think the talk is that MEL-LAX would maintain the A380 flight 93 and the x2wk flight 95 with the 744 would switch to the 789, and perhaps increase frequency. QF could then operate both SYD and MEL double daily to LAX, conceivably.

Gemuser wrote:
SYD-DFW, most likely will stay A380, MEL-DFW will start with B789, but my guess is that within a few years it will need an A380 or two B789s, the A380 should win that one.
.

I know times could change but, suggesting that in a few years QF will operate 2 daily A380s to DFW seems a little far fetched for me. I think it would be more likely that DFW steadies with 1xA380 and 1x789, while LAX grows. I don't really think there is that much growth in the DFW markets that are not served via LAX (growing smaller as AA grows in LAX), that there will be that much growth in the coming years. And as mentioned why operate the flight to DFW when LAX works for most travellers and it is a shorter flight.

This is my thought on the AUS-USA market for QF A380s and where the 789 could go assuming they would only fly the 789 to the US (unlikely). I tend to think that if QF needs AA's feed to fill their planes (article) then less is more in the terms of capacity. Being daily or double daily is probably better than maintaining/growing capacity, but that is just me.

Qantas:
2x A380 SYD-LAX
1x A380 MEL-LAX
1x A380 SYD-DFW
1x B789 MEL-DFW
1x B789 BNE-LAX
1x B789 SYD-SFO
1x B789 SYD-YVR

I wanted to add AA's future offerings as well as they are QF's JV partner. Also, I tend to think in AA's eyes if they want to continue to grow at LAX, they need to be in these markets not just relying on the JV partner.

American
1x B77W SYD-LAX
1x B789 BNE-LAX
1x B788 AKL-LAX
1x B789 MEL-LAX


the AA estimation is spot on but I could see DFW-AKL being added in addition to the existing LAX service. the LAX flight is performing very well and as Qantas has seen, DFW opens up a lot of good east coast connections that make it work. Joyce was adamant about AA starting service to AUS, so I do expect to see them in MEL and BNE in due time...especially as the 789s come online and the 744s are retired.

I don't think SEA is likely for QF. maybe? have to wonder how many connects QF/AA get from SEA to feed the current flights.
 
qf002
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:29 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
It's a long shot (no pun intended), but I'm hoping for SYD-SEA. QF mentioned this link when the Dreamliners first came out.. QF codeshares with AS. And can't use the proximity of YVR as a factor as there are other international airlines that serve both SEA and YVR.


I actually think SEA could be a better option than running year-round 789s into YVR. Stronger corporate links into Australia, a stronger connecting hub and just generally a bit less seasonality in demand which is the big issue QF faces with pushing their way back into Canada.

I've mentioned it before but I don't think that YVR is the sort of route that QF are targeting with this 42J/21W/165Y configuration. I might be wrong but I think YVR is likely to remain seasonal with a 744 for now.

mpdpilot wrote:
As for DFW-MEL, I guess I just don't see the growth requiring two A380s a day in DFW when they already have 3 at LAX, and with AA's growth at LAX, there are fewer and fewer routes that need to go via DFW to maintain the 1-stop flight.


I agree. I don't know where this sudden burst of huge growth is going to come from (MEL-DFW with A380s, double daily MEL-LAX as well as new routes from SYD and increases from BNE as well). QF has been sending a very clear message out into the market - we are in growth mode but we aren't going nuts.

My opinion remains that we will see DFW go to a double daily 789 service in the short-mid term and growth in the longer term will come from larger twins (779s or A35Ks) and/or the addition of BNE/AKL-DFW.

That leaves four frames in the initial batch which could be used anywhere really.
 
wenders825
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:35 am

qf002 wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
It's a long shot (no pun intended), but I'm hoping for SYD-SEA. QF mentioned this link when the Dreamliners first came out.. QF codeshares with AS. And can't use the proximity of YVR as a factor as there are other international airlines that serve both SEA and YVR.


I actually think SEA could be a better option than running year-round 789s into YVR. Stronger corporate links into Australia, a stronger connecting hub and just generally a bit less seasonality in demand which is the big issue QF faces with pushing their way back into Canada.

I've mentioned it before but I don't think that YVR is the sort of route that QF are targeting with this 42J/21W/165Y configuration. I might be wrong but I think YVR is likely to remain seasonal with a 744 for now.

I actually blanked on their AS partnership, that gives them SEA strong advantage over YVR. that would be a strong starter if they give it a go
 
Gemuser
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 11:06 am

qf002 wrote:
My opinion remains that we will see DFW go to a double daily 789 service in the short-mid term and growth in the longer term will come from larger twins (779s or A35Ks) and/or the addition of BNE/AKL-DFW. .

What do you mean "DFW go double daily 789"? From where?

Gemuser
 
log0008
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:21 pm

I think MEL-SFO is more likely than SYD-SEA and don't expect either of them out of the initial order.
 
qf002
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:21 pm

Gemuser wrote:
What do you mean "DFW go double daily 789"? From where?


One each from SYD and MEL.

This is my rationale from a post a few months ago:

"The A380 is QF's best solution at the moment but the 789 option blows it out of the water:

- 25-30% boost to westbound capacity while eastbound capacity remains steady.
- More premium capacity while eliminating F (which is a cabin QF never wanted to offer into DFW to begin with).
- 2-3 times more cargo potential over the A380.

I'm not sure why you think CASM would rise. Sure, you have higher crew costs but two 789s should burn less fuel than a single A380 and do so while offering a very substantial increase in available passenger and cargo capacity. You also have to consider the potential to improve yields from MEL by offering a second nonstop service as well as the potential savings driven by dropping the extra 2wk MEL-LAX services or by eliminating the DFW stop on the freighter service.

It just makes sense."
 
log0008
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:35 pm

qf002 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
What do you mean "DFW go double daily 789"? From where?


One each from SYD and MEL.

This is my rationale from a post a few months ago:

"The A380 is QF's best solution at the moment but the 789 option blows it out of the water:

- 25-30% boost to westbound capacity while eastbound capacity remains steady.
- More premium capacity while eliminating F (which is a cabin QF never wanted to offer into DFW to begin with).
- 2-3 times more cargo potential over the A380.

I'm not sure why you think CASM would rise. Sure, you have higher crew costs but two 789s should burn less fuel than a single A380 and do so while offering a very substantial increase in available passenger and cargo capacity. You also have to consider the potential to improve yields from MEL by offering a second nonstop service as well as the potential savings driven by dropping the extra 2wk MEL-LAX services or by eliminating the DFW stop on the freighter service.

It just makes sense."



Completely agree, the eastbound capacity would be hurting yields and that's more important than actually passengers carrier. Expect it will happen, just a matter of when and whether they launch MEL-DFW before they can downgrade the Sydney service. Also gives them 2 A380s which could upgrade SYD-HKG to A380 and one other, maybe HND
 
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sunrisevalley
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:37 pm

[[quote="globalcabotage"]789 cannot make SYD-ORD. ]

with 235 seats it should do it. A typical day would be ~ 17hrs 30 min.
 
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sunrisevalley
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:41 pm

If they go with the Thompson staggered seat in Y I believe this will be the first installation for this seat. At 20" wide I think the seat has considerable merit.
 
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angusjt
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:48 pm

MEL-NRT? A recently resurrected service with an A330 which was previously loss making which seems like it has the perfect demand for a 787 with about 250 pax, MEL also has 787 maintainence facilities for JQ which would make it easier for QF to position a few there
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:40 pm

jetfuel wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:
qf789 wrote:
There has also been a leak on facebook that the economy seats could be the Thompson Cozysuite as pictured below


https://www.facebook.com/AIRLINESECRETS ... 5470248463

That could be an absolute game changer regarding my hate to the 787. 20" in Y would be great and for ULH flights it would make it more bearable.



The Airline Secrets on Facebook said it was just a RUMOUR. I am sure QF said the 787 would be 9 across so thats 17" wide seats :(

If you look at the Thompson LOPAS for the 787-its 17" at TEN across, so it would likely be 18.5-20" at the 9 across QF has announced.
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qf71
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 10:26 am

I think it is quite possible for Qantas' first B787-9s to be based in Brisbane and Melbourne with B747-400 operations being consolidated to Sydney. This makes a lot of sense from an operational point of view as QF currently has to ferry B747-400s between SYD-MEL and SYD-BNE for operational requirements. consolidating B747 ops to SYD also allows for more product consistency with one type of Business Class seat being used on long laul flights from Brisbane and Melbourne (assuming the A380s get an upgrade for MEL flights).

There is a strong possibility that QF will only retire the 2 aging 4 Class B744s(OJM/OEB) which feature QF's product from 10-15yrs ago, with the remaining 9 B747s staying on until at least 2020 when they could be replaced my larger next generation long range twins.

This is just one of many concepts that I came up with

B787-900
BNE-LAX-JFK (2.0) - Daily
BNE-DFW (2.0) - Daily
BNE-NRT (1.0) - Daily
MEL-NRT (1.0) - Daily
MEL-LAX/SIN (1.0) - Operating to LAX Mon/Wed, SIN Friday/Sat/Sun (2nd flight) as per current schedule

B747-400
SYD-HND (1.5)
SYD-SCL (1.5) - 4x Weekly Year round
SYD-JNB (1.5)
SYD-SFO (1.5) - Goes from 6x Weekly to Daily
SYD-HKG (1.0)

A380-800
SYD-DXB-LHR (2.5)
MEL-DXB-LHR (2.5)
SYD-LAX (2.0) * Returns to Daily A380
MEL-LAX (2.0)
SYD-DFW (2.0) * Reduces to 6x Weekly A380

From this there are two A330s freed up and this allows a reshuffle of A330 ops
MEL-PVG to be launched with Daily A332
MEL-BKK to be launched with Daily A333
SYD-PVG to change to Daily A332 with A333 being redeployed to SIN Flights. Both SYD-SIN flights would revert back to the A333.
The reason for the change from the A333 to the A332 on the PVG is that the A332 can fly with a full freight and PAX payload, whilst the A333 struggles.
The A333 model that QF operates is not very suitable for flights above 8-9hrs.
This is the reason why the NRT flights would swap to the B787-9. It also allows for a consistent premium product on the route and aircraft can easily be rotated between Melbourne and Brisbane.

JQ would have at least 2x B787-8s that could be used to launch new flights to China.
 
qf71
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 10:31 am

Having the B787-9s based in BNE and MEL also means that there is significant Engineering support available in addition to that available at LAX. AA also has extensive engineering facilities at DFW.

Having the B787-9 fly LAX-JFK allows for significant operational savings and means that there is an appropriate sized aircraft flying the route for the first time.

Under this concept QF would have a fleet of 12x A380, 9x B747 and 8x B787. There would also be a B747-400 that would act an operational spare providing coverage for all longhaul fleet operations (A330/B747/A380/B787) with the exception of some B787-9 ops with a spare based in BNE. As such QF would have a more efficient network structure than what they do currently.
 
kriskim
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 10:41 am

QF doesn't ferry 747's between MEL and SYD, the 747's are rotated: LAX-MEL-HKG-MEL-LAX. If anything I can see MEL-HKG going daily 747 in the future given that it doesn't seem like QF isn't interested in adding more frequency.
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djsflynn
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 10:57 am

qf789 wrote:
There has also been a leak on facebook that the economy seats could be the Thompson Cozysuite...


Not really a 'leak', more like 'speculation' at this stage.
 
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sunrisevalley
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:09 pm

Isn't the much admired J seat in the A330's made by Thompson?
 
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qf789
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:23 pm

sunrisevalley wrote:
Isn't the much admired J seat in the A330's made by Thompson?


Yes

Thompson created the airline's highly-regarded Airbus A330 Business Suite and will be refining the design for the Qantas Dreamliners based on customer feedback since the seat debuted in early 2015.


http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-ceo-prom ... figuration
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jetfuel
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:19 pm

Wonder whether BNE-DXB has a chance at all?
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
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enzo011
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:29 pm

The Thompson Cozy Suite is an interesting concept in Y, but surely there is a reason why it hasn't been chosen by airlines as yet. I see that they advertise that they can fit 10-abreast seats at 17" in the 787, I think we are more likely to see this before we see 20" wide seats at 9-abreast in the 787.
 
georgiabill
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:33 pm

Would QF consider flying SYD-BOM or SYD-DEL using the 789'S? Perhaps 3 or 4 weekly BOM and DEL being the other days?
 
log0008
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 10:04 pm

georgiabill wrote:
Would QF consider flying SYD-BOM or SYD-DEL using the 789'S? Perhaps 3 or 4 weekly BOM and DEL being the other days?

Unlikely, India is very much a low yielding market what it needs is a local LCC to simulate India-Australia effectively an Indigo 'X' but right now domestic carriers can fill every plane they put into service so no need to risk going wide body and longhual. That may change in the future, maybe even with airasia India. Also don't be surprised if Melbourne gets more ex India flights in the future it's a bigger market than Sydney like Malaysia.
 
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:36 pm

qf71 wrote:
There is a strong possibility that QF will only retire the 2 aging 4 Class B744s(OJM/OEB) which feature QF's product from 10-15yrs ago, with the remaining 9 B747s staying on until at least 2020 when they could be replaced my larger next generation long range twins.


I agree with you here although I don't agree with the list of 787 routes. I don't believe the 787 will replace any current A330 service into Asia because from a product consistency point of view it doesn't make sense especially when you have enough flexibility between the domestic and International A330 fleets to basically cross fleet and do whatever you want to do.

As I said before, assuming fuel prices stay broadly where they are a MEL-DFW service makes sense on the 789 while the 744 currently operating the supplemental MEL-LAX services can either be replaced by a 789 or that service can be canned. The 744 freed up would then go onto MEL-HKG increasing the 744 services on MEL-HKG. That frees up A330 capacity from MEL-HKG which I'd have thought would go onto increasing MEL-SIN. (Boring and Vanilla I know but that's QF for you) Daily MEL-DFW uses 2 to 2.5 789's.

After that I think the next logical routings are a mix of BNE-LAX-JFK, SYD-YVR and/or SYD-SFO. In my opinion the only reason to put the 789 onto BNE-LAX is to slightly reduce capacity to LAX because they're launching BNE-DFW. That way BNE doesn't lose North America capacity but gains another gateway.

As for rotating the 789 through an Asian city, the logical choice is SIN. With multiple daily flights if something was to happen to the 789 the place with the most opportunity for QF to move stranded passengers on its own metal from is SIN.
 
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:09 am

I'm curious with those economy seats, with the staggered layout - wouldn't it make for a very dark cabin? The seats would block the window for everyone except the A and K seats.

I was under the impression premium economy was to be revolutionary, not normal economy?
 
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Mon Oct 10, 2016 9:54 am

jetfuel wrote:
The Airline Secrets on Facebook said it was just a RUMOUR.

Whoever runs that page seems to have a massive axe to grind against Qantas, so I would take anything that they say with a massive pinch of salt.
First to fly the 787-9
 
Thai77w
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Mon Oct 10, 2016 10:22 am

They have an axe to grind with QF and also any asian airline, yet the followers are parochial QF supporters.
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Mon Oct 10, 2016 12:32 pm

kriskim wrote:
QF doesn't ferry 747's between MEL and SYD, the 747's are rotated: LAX-MEL-HKG-MEL-LAX. If anything I can see MEL-HKG going daily 747 in the future given that it doesn't seem like QF isn't interested in adding more frequency.


It's not that QF isn't interested in adding frequency to HKG, it is that they are unable to gain slots to enable them to do so. Which actually makes the route you suggested MEL-HKG more likely to go daily 747.

smi0006 wrote:
I'm curious with those economy seats, with the staggered layout - wouldn't it make for a very dark cabin? The seats would block the window for everyone except the A and K seats.


I wouldn't have thought so, the seats are simply staggered at an angle rather than straight so shouldn't limit the amount of light entering the aircraft, outdoor ambient light would just be entering the cabin at a different perspective, plus with the 787s larger windows I doubt the difference in light would be noticeable.
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sunrisevalley
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Mon Oct 10, 2016 1:52 pm

FWIW......A QF A380 with 385 passengers burns ~200t of fuel DFW-SYD. A 789 with 235 passengers ~85t. With IATA fuel price index at ~ $470 m/t this $244 a seat for the A380 and $170 for the 789.
 
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jetfuel
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Mon Oct 10, 2016 1:55 pm

sunrisevalley wrote:
FWIW......A QF A380 with 385 passengers burns ~200t of fuel DFW-SYD. A 789 with 235 passengers ~85t. With IATA fuel price index at ~ $470 m/t this $244 a seat for the A380 and $170 for the 789.



wow
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AsiaTravel
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:02 pm

jetfuel wrote:
sunrisevalley wrote:
FWIW......A QF A380 with 385 passengers burns ~200t of fuel DFW-SYD. A 789 with 235 passengers ~85t. With IATA fuel price index at ~ $470 m/t this $244 a seat for the A380 and $170 for the 789.



wow


Don't forget that this is because of the payload restriction on DFW-SYD, otherwise the cost per seat would have been $194 with the full capacity of 484 pax.

But it remains impressive nevertheless. I wonder how would the 359 and 77W perform on the same route.
 
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Mon Oct 10, 2016 3:33 pm

[quote="AsiaTravel
Don't forget that this is because of the payload restriction on DFW-SYD, otherwise the cost per seat would have been $194 with the full capacity of 484 pax.

But it remains impressive nevertheless. I wonder how would the 359 and 77W perform on the same route.]

I have nothing on the A359. The 77E burns upwards of 21% more fuel than the 789 and I believe the 77W is ~ 4% higher than that. From the load/range tables, assuming a 7500nm ESAD day the 77W burn would be ~$200 per passenger.
 
aviationjunky
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Re: Qantas will reveal Boeing 787 routes, seats on 27 October 2016

Mon Oct 10, 2016 5:28 pm

SYD-LAS? Sounds like a dream come true if were to happen! SYD off season is LAS on season, and vise versa. I think it could do pretty well.
LAS is Life

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