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commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:49 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
I agree that WN's growth rate will be much slower in the future, however I don't see that as a problem except for maybe the folks on Wall Street. Heck, I think even Wall Street might be happy if they keep growth slower in order to push up RASM. WN is a publicly traded company, but they've rarely been engaged in short-term gimmicks to make Wall Street happy.


To be clear, I think the challenge posed by slower growth has absolutely nothing to do with the expectations of Wall St which, I agree, can indeed often be short-sighted. Rather, I think the challenge Southwest faces from lower growth is that while lower growth will likely strengthen unit revenues, it will undermine unit costs which - at Southwest - have been predicated for decades, to one extent or another, on continual growth.

The other issue Southwest now faces is that, unlike twenty years ago, it's no longer the lowest-cost, 'swing' producer. As such, other, lower-cost operators can actually now come in and profitably stimulate traffic at price points below what Southwest can sustain. In effect, the tables have been turned a bit on Southwest such that Southwest now faces the challenge from Allegiant, Spirit, etc. that Southwest posed to AA, Delta, United, etc. 10-15 years ago. So that will somewhat erode the unit revenue benefit that Southwest derives from slower capacity growth - when Southwest slows growth, ULCCs will come in and backfill it, just like what Southwest did the legacies in the 2000s.

FlyPNS1 wrote:
And if WN's growth is a problem then you must believe the legacy carriers will face similar growth challenges, but on a global scale. The regionals as feeders are falling apart (50 seaters are dead, 70 seaters are dying and even the 76 seater economics are starting to fade). On the mainline side, 100-110 seaters still have questionable mainline economics. Many of the legacy carriers will be forced to shrink domestically from many of the feeder markets as they've already been doing. Even internationally, the long-term prospects (beyond just some economic growth) are far more limited. The Middle East/Indian Sub-Continent is a lost cause. Europe is going to be a nightmare as ULCC's attack and the ME3 push for 5th freedom. Asia has more growth, but the Chinese carriers are going to rise up and flood the market.


I strongly disagree. The network carriers - for all their own faults, challenges and struggles, of which there are plenty - have business models and networks capable of handling massive volumes of highly diversified traffic and revenue from markets big and small, near and far. On the global stage, the U.S. network carriers may face new and emerging threats and competitive pressures that they'll have to contend with - but at least they're capable of even playing. But for all of its strength and brilliance, Southwest does not have that - it can't even play in the game. If a market is too small or too large/far for a 737, Southwest cannot access that traffic. That's a growth problem that I do believe Southwest will have to address at some point because - as said - Southwest is, in my view, starting to push the limits of where it can profitably go with 737s at its (rising) cost levels.
 
DickAnderson666
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:28 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:55 pm

airliner371 wrote:

DickAnderson666 wrote:
Here's just a few of the many things where WN is worse:

...
On time performance worse than OA mainline
...

That is b.s. Clearly you have not been paying attention to the latest DOT numbers because Southwest has consistently been one of the top carriers in OT performance, and may I also add customer service.


Wow, hell hath no fury like a WN fanboy scorned. I'm afraid it is you who have not been paying attention to the OTP numbers. Do you live your entire life like it is 1994 or just when it comes to thinking about OTP?

The following data comes from the DOT Air Travel Consumer Report:

OTP Rank YE2014:
1. HA
2. AS
3. DL
4. VX
5. AA
6. OO
7. UA
8. B6
9. F9
10. WN

OTP Rank YE2015:

1. HA
2. AS
3. DL
4. AA
5. VX
6. OO
7. WN
8. UA
9. XJ
10. B6

And DOT OTP Rankings 12 months ending Aug 2016:

1. HA
2. AS
3. DL
4. UA
5. OO
6. WN
7. XJ
8. AA
9. F9
10. VX

Sorry to let facts get in the way.

airliner371 wrote:

DickAnderson666 wrote:
Why do you think that WN tries to dominate the locations they serve? So that no one has a choice and has to pick them.

Clearly you don't understand Southwest's business model.


Sorry, it is you who doesn't understand. WN execs talk about the "market leader strategy" which is their way of saying that they want to be the biggest carrier in their most important cities. I've heard it first hand.

I looked at scheduled seats in the past 4 years...during that time WN has grown it's 20 largest cities by 9%. By contrast the 20 smallest (that aren't new or exited) have shrunk by 3%. This is clearly an investment in trying to be more dominant in the biggest cities. The smaller point to point markets have been a victim of their increased costs, like it or not.

I'm sure you'll tell me I'm wrong here too as this doesn't reflect your 1994 world view where WN still flies markets like ABQ-MAF.
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5514
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:18 pm

commavia wrote:
But for all of its strength and brilliance, Southwest does not have that - it can't even play in the game.


The question is, is it a game worth playing in? The legacy carriers have spent the better part of a decade shrinking in most small/regional markets and more shrinking is likely to come as costs rise. Not sure that is a market WN wants to even be in even if they could operate smaller planes.

On the international side, it's true WN can't play in the long-haul international markets, but again you have to ask if these are markets you want to be in? The legacy carriers have all but given up on the Middle East/India (one of the fastest growing regions of the world!). Europe will be a mess for the foreseeable future and that's assuming the ME3 don't show up. Japan/Korea have limited potential. China has a lot of potential, but outside of a few UA flights at SFO, most of the China markets growth will go to Chinese carriers. So again, does WN really want to be in these markets? Many of which could have worse returns than just staying in the slow growing domestic space.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:35 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
The question is, is it a game worth playing in? The legacy carriers have spent the better part of a decade shrinking in most small/regional markets and more shrinking is likely to come as costs rise. Not sure that is a market WN wants to even be in even if they could operate smaller planes.


In my opinion, it absolutely is. The economics of small planes into small markets will find a natural equilibrium in time, and in any event, these markets provide an important, often higher-yielding, stream of revenue mix to inject into broader global networks. Southwest cannot access this revenue.

FlyPNS1 wrote:
On the international side, it's true WN can't play in the long-haul international markets, but again you have to ask if these are markets you want to be in? The legacy carriers have all but given up on the Middle East/India (one of the fastest growing regions of the world!). Europe will be a mess for the foreseeable future and that's assuming the ME3 don't show up. Japan/Korea have limited potential. China has a lot of potential, but outside of a few UA flights at SFO, most of the China markets growth will go to Chinese carriers. So again, does WN really want to be in these markets? Many of which could have worse returns than just staying in the slow growing domestic space.


And again, my answer to that question is absolutely yes, global markets are ones worth being in. The level of competition emerging from the ME3 and European low fare carriers does not diminish the overall value of global connectivity, particularly for the higher-yielding business travelers who Southwest will increasingly need to pay the higher fares necessary to cover its rising costs.

The bottom line is that if Southwest wants to continue being a massive domestic (and perhaps near-abroad) operator flying only 737s to large O&D markets, it can certainly do that. The challenge will be that, over time, I strongly suspect that such an approach will yield progressively diminishing returns as competitive challenges multiply, competitors' revenue streams diversify and organic growth slows to a crawl. That's why I am simply suggesting that I believe Southwest will - at some point - have no choice but to find a way to access new revenue streams in small and faraway markets, and doing so is going to necessitate yet more change to the Southwest business model which has already evolved so dramatically in the last 15-20 years.
 
SWADawg
Posts: 609
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:43 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:49 pm

commavia wrote:

In my opinion, it absolutely is. The economics of small planes into small markets will find a natural equilibrium in time, and in any event, these markets provide an important, often higher-yielding, stream of revenue mix to inject into broader global networks. Southwest cannot access this revenue.


And again, my answer to that question is absolutely yes, global markets are ones worth being in. The level of competition emerging from the ME3 and European low fare carriers does not diminish the overall value of global connectivity, particularly for the higher-yielding business travelers who Southwest will increasingly need to pay the higher fares necessary to cover its rising costs.

The bottom line is that if Southwest wants to continue being a massive domestic (and perhaps near-abroad) operator flying only 737s to large O&D markets, it can certainly do that. The challenge will be that, over time, I strongly suspect that such an approach will yield progressively diminishing returns as competitive challenges multiply, competitors' revenue streams diversify and organic growth slows to a crawl. That's why I am simply suggesting that I believe Southwest will - at some point - have no choice but to find a way to access new revenue streams in small and faraway markets, and doing so is going to necessitate yet more change to the Southwest business model which has already evolved so dramatically in the last 15-20 years.


I completely agree with your assessment of WN's situation. Clearly changes will have to be made to the business model if WN hopes to grow organically in the future. I frankly think the company is looking at a larger airframe but currently isn't in a position to do so until the new Reservations system is online and a few other strategic business decisions are made. I would say that conservatively WN is about 5-10 years away from operating a 787 type of Aircraft Longhaul.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
airliner371
Topic Author
Posts: 2404
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:53 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:51 pm

DickAnderson666 wrote:
airliner371 wrote:

DickAnderson666 wrote:
Here's just a few of the many things where WN is worse:

...
On time performance worse than OA mainline
...

That is b.s. Clearly you have not been paying attention to the latest DOT numbers because Southwest has consistently been one of the top carriers in OT performance, and may I also add customer service.


Wow, hell hath no fury like a WN fanboy scorned. I'm afraid it is you who have not been paying attention to the OTP numbers. Do you live your entire life like it is 1994 or just when it comes to thinking about OTP?

The following data comes from the DOT Air Travel Consumer Report:

OTP Rank YE2014:
1. HA
2. AS
3. DL
4. VX
5. AA
6. OO
7. UA
8. B6
9. F9
10. WN

OTP Rank YE2015:

1. HA
2. AS
3. DL
4. AA
5. VX
6. OO
7. WN
8. UA
9. XJ
10. B6

And DOT OTP Rankings 12 months ending Aug 2016:

1. HA
2. AS
3. DL
4. UA
5. OO
6. WN
7. XJ
8. AA
9. F9
10. VX

Sorry to let facts get in the way.

airliner371 wrote:

DickAnderson666 wrote:
Why do you think that WN tries to dominate the locations they serve? So that no one has a choice and has to pick them.

Clearly you don't understand Southwest's business model.


Sorry, it is you who doesn't understand. WN execs talk about the "market leader strategy" which is their way of saying that they want to be the biggest carrier in their most important cities. I've heard it first hand.

I looked at scheduled seats in the past 4 years...during that time WN has grown it's 20 largest cities by 9%. By contrast the 20 smallest (that aren't new or exited) have shrunk by 3%. This is clearly an investment in trying to be more dominant in the biggest cities. The smaller point to point markets have been a victim of their increased costs, like it or not.

I'm sure you'll tell me I'm wrong here too as this doesn't reflect your 1994 world view where WN still flies markets like ABQ-MAF.

Sir, your attacks are unnecessary and clearly you don't understand my point or me. You're new here, you probably haven't seen my posts but I am the first person to acknowledge and commend the changes that Southwest has commanded over the past 10 years and I encourage the changes that I said I wouldn't be surprised to see in my previous post.

You say, "Why do you think that WN tries to dominate the locations they serve?" Well, perhaps you were too broad by saying just that but to your point, they may have grown their 20 largest cities but also to your point, they've evidently shrunk by 3 percent in their 20 smallest markets. So how does them shrinking in those markets prove your point that they try to dominate the locations they serve? And all their new cities that tend to have 6 or few flights? That's them attempting to "dominate the locations they serve," so that, "no one has a choice and has to pick them."?

Now I haven't fact checked you because I don't care to waste my time on a forum, but if that is true, I'd love to see the change in flight ops in those cities for other carriers too. And I assume you took into account that the AirTran acquisition greatly affects those markets as well. Well, maybe I won't assume that...

And sir, I can just as easily point out your bias....

Here's just a few of the many things where WN is worse:

I'm picking a carrier who has the amenities I mentioned.

Look at the product you get on WN vs the other carriers. Much worse

Not a winning formula.

Hard to be optimistic about WN's future.


I'll give you the last word, see ya around.
 
airliner371
Topic Author
Posts: 2404
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:53 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:56 pm

SWADawg wrote:
commavia wrote:

In my opinion, it absolutely is. The economics of small planes into small markets will find a natural equilibrium in time, and in any event, these markets provide an important, often higher-yielding, stream of revenue mix to inject into broader global networks. Southwest cannot access this revenue.


And again, my answer to that question is absolutely yes, global markets are ones worth being in. The level of competition emerging from the ME3 and European low fare carriers does not diminish the overall value of global connectivity, particularly for the higher-yielding business travelers who Southwest will increasingly need to pay the higher fares necessary to cover its rising costs.

The bottom line is that if Southwest wants to continue being a massive domestic (and perhaps near-abroad) operator flying only 737s to large O&D markets, it can certainly do that. The challenge will be that, over time, I strongly suspect that such an approach will yield progressively diminishing returns as competitive challenges multiply, competitors' revenue streams diversify and organic growth slows to a crawl. That's why I am simply suggesting that I believe Southwest will - at some point - have no choice but to find a way to access new revenue streams in small and faraway markets, and doing so is going to necessitate yet more change to the Southwest business model which has already evolved so dramatically in the last 15-20 years.


I completely agree with your assessment of WN's situation. Clearly changes will have to be made to the business model if WN hopes to grow organically in the future. I frankly think the company is looking at a larger airframe but currently isn't in a position to do so until the new Reservations system is online and a few other strategic business decisions are made. I would say that conservatively WN is about 5-10 years away from operating a 787 type of Aircraft Longhaul.

I would generally agree with both of your evaluations. In many ways, Southwest has already started their shift and they continue to progress towards exactly what you describe. If Boeing goes ahead with the MOM, I definitely expect Southwest to be operating that aircraft.

I'm just waiting for the day Southwest announces a premium economy as a way to increase sales and yields for Business Select.
 
DickAnderson666
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:28 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:50 pm

airliner371 wrote:
I am the first person to acknowledge and commend the changes that Southwest has commanded over the past 10 years and I encourage the changes that I said I wouldn't be surprised to see in my previous post.


But you don't acknowledge the degradation of on time performance.

airliner371 wrote:

And all their new cities that tend to have 6 or few flights? That's them attempting to "dominate the locations they serve," so that, "no one has a choice and has to pick them."?


Yes I was generalizing and focusing on the meaningful markets. They said as much in their investor slides....check out slide 23 here.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4015531 ... all-slides

They use the term "market leader" and illustrate how much bigger they are vs competition in the markets they want to dominate.

airliner371 wrote:
And I assume you took into account that the AirTran acquisition greatly affects those markets as well. Well, maybe I won't assume that...


Of course I took into account FL.

airliner371 wrote:
And sir, I can just as easily point out your bias....


My opinion is formed through facts, data, and experience. If that is classified as bias than guilty as charged.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 5:38 pm

DickAnderson666 wrote:
airliner371 wrote:
I am the first person to acknowledge and commend the changes that Southwest has commanded over the past 10 years and I encourage the changes that I said I wouldn't be surprised to see in my previous post.


But you don't acknowledge the degradation of on time performance.


I'm not necessarily arguing with your larger point, but isn't at least some of the degradation in on-time performance due to opening or enlarging stations at airports with on-time issues?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 5:56 pm

I would think that WN would need something smaller if they want to grow domestically. Are they in a position to have a B scale for an Ejet or CSeries?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
DickAnderson666
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:28 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 5:59 pm

Cubsrule wrote:

I'm not necessarily arguing with your larger point, but isn't at least some of the degradation in on-time performance due to opening or enlarging stations at airports with on-time issues?


I am sure that is part of the change. However I would argue that the legacy carriers have a larger proportion of their operation in these airports and manage to, in general, post better OTP numbers than WN.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1787
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 6:04 pm

DickAnderson666 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

I'm not necessarily arguing with your larger point, but isn't at least some of the degradation in on-time performance due to opening or enlarging stations at airports with on-time issues?


I am sure that is part of the change. However I would argue that the legacy carriers have a larger proportion of their operation in these airports and manage to, in general, post better OTP numbers than WN.

AA and UA's numbers look remarkably similar to WN's. What do the numbers look like when branded regionals are included?
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 6:19 pm

DickAnderson666 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

I'm not necessarily arguing with your larger point, but isn't at least some of the degradation in on-time performance due to opening or enlarging stations at airports with on-time issues?


I am sure that is part of the change. However I would argue that the legacy carriers have a larger proportion of their operation in these airports and manage to, in general, post better OTP numbers than WN.


I'm not sure that a carrier like DL is more exposed to airports with structural on-time issues than is WN. The other thing that is worth remembering is that the legacies have a lot more experience with hubs and a lot more experience with congested airports. WN had some serious growing pains at MDW a few years ago and has largely resolved those. To the extent that AA or UA had (and resolved) growing pains at ORD, that happened 15 years ago or more.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2630
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:34 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
What do the numbers look like when branded regionals are included?


That's really the only fair way to look at it because most domestic business travelers fly half or even more of their flights on regional and not mainline planes. If you go by brand instead of "mainline only", WN is better than the other legacies. And the myth that DL performs better than WN, UA, and AA gets exposed. So fanboys will continue to quote "mainline only" stats even though they mean nothing to people who travel to a variety of destinations including medium and smaller cities that are mostly or completely served by regional carriers only, apart from WN.
 
 
User avatar
BobPatterson
Posts: 3416
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:18 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sat Oct 29, 2016 11:18 am

IPFreely wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
What do the numbers look like when branded regionals are included?


That's really the only fair way to look at it because most domestic business travelers fly half or even more of their flights on regional and not mainline planes. If you go by brand instead of "mainline only", WN is better than the other legacies. And the myth that DL performs better than WN, UA, and AA gets exposed. So fanboys will continue to quote "mainline only" stats even though they mean nothing to people who travel to a variety of destinations including medium and smaller cities that are mostly or completely served by regional carriers only, apart from WN.


Beginning sometime next year six regionals flying for legacies, plus Allegiant, will be required to file on-time statistics, so we will finally be able to see through some of the type of "mainline only" data.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ut-to-drop

What DOT is doing is lowering the reporting requirement from just the airlines servicing 1.0% or more of traffic to those serving 0.5% or more.

I don't know if regionals serving more than one legacy will have to break down their data by legacy shares.
Facts are fragile things. Treat them with care. Sources are important. Alternative facts do not exist.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2630
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sat Oct 29, 2016 3:22 pm

BobPatterson wrote:
What DOT is doing is lowering the reporting requirement from just the airlines servicing 1.0% or more of traffic to those serving 0.5% or more.


I commend the DOT because this is a step in the right direction. It may finally motivate airlines, particularly DL, to pay attention to the reliability of their regional service. But I wish they had included all branded airlines without the 0.5% threshold. Because I expect we'll see many of the regionals, especially ones like Endeavor and Compass, flying 0.49% of traffic instead of improving their performance.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3634
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sat Oct 29, 2016 9:08 pm

IPFreely wrote:
If you go by brand instead of "mainline only", WN is better than the other legacies. And the myth that DL performs better than WN, UA, and AA gets exposed. So fanboys will continue to quote "mainline only" stats even though they mean nothing to people who travel to a variety of destinations including medium and smaller cities that are mostly or completely served by regional carriers only, apart from WN.

You're always good for a laugh. Did you not notice that OO, the largest regional, is above WN in eeach of the last three years? At UA our regionals are regularly outperforming WN, every month this year I believe.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sat Oct 29, 2016 9:11 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
If you go by brand instead of "mainline only", WN is better than the other legacies. And the myth that DL performs better than WN, UA, and AA gets exposed. So fanboys will continue to quote "mainline only" stats even though they mean nothing to people who travel to a variety of destinations including medium and smaller cities that are mostly or completely served by regional carriers only, apart from WN.

You're always good for a laugh. Did you not notice that OO, the largest regional, is above WN in eeach of the last three years? At UA our regionals are regularly outperforming WN, every month this year I believe.


OO also is not at all exposed to the delay-infested northeast corridor. Aren't its two largest operations DEN and SLC?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2630
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sat Oct 29, 2016 10:15 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
You're always good for a laugh.


That's because you don't know the facts.

Rdh3e wrote:
Did you not notice that OO, the largest regional, is above WN in eeach of the last three years?


I didn't mention OO. But OO is not the only regional. WN regularly outperforms the cumulative results of all regional carriers.

Rdh3e wrote:
At UA our regionals are regularly outperforming WN, every month this year I believe.


False. But hey, don't let facts stop you from believing what you want.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3634
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sat Oct 29, 2016 11:08 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
OO also is not at all exposed to the delay-infested northeast corridor. Aren't its two largest operations DEN and SLC?

They have a lot of flying in the mountains, but they also have a lot of flying in congested west-coast hubs.

Airport / OO deps/day for October 2016.
DEN 135
SLC 131
ORD 119
SFO 101
MSP 97
DTW 76
LAX 75
PHX 55
SEA 53
IAH 39

IPFreely wrote:
That's because you don't know the facts.

I didn't mention OO. But OO is not the only regional. WN regularly outperforms the cumulative results of all regional carriers.


You are the one posting things without any factual basis. The only evidence presented thus far is that WN is worse than the Regionals.

The two regionals for UA large enough to be required to report are Skywest and ExpressJet. They represent about 60% of UA regional capacity.

YTD 2016 Ontime:
Skywest 82.3%
ExpressJet 79.2%
Combined: 80.9%

YTD Southwest Ontime: 79.8%

Onus is on you now to prove your claims with data.

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/HomeDrillC ... tYear=2016
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sat Oct 29, 2016 11:20 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
You are the one posting things without any factual basis. The only evidence presented thus far is that WN is worse than the Regionals.

The two regionals for UA large enough to be required to report are Skywest and ExpressJet. They represent about 60% of UA regional capacity.

YTD 2016 Ontime:
Skywest 82.3%
ExpressJet 79.2%
Combined: 80.9%

YTD Southwest Ontime: 79.8%


I'm just a dumb lawyer, but isn't 79.8 percent greater than 79.2 percent?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8761
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sun Oct 30, 2016 12:33 am

IPFreely wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
What do the numbers look like when branded regionals are included?


That's really the only fair way to look at it because most domestic business travelers fly half or even more of their flights on regional and not mainline planes.


You can't support that with data. The regionals represent a lot of departures but with much lower average gauge. YTD AA has had ~110 million mainline passenger enplanements and 41 million on regionals. Weighted on a seat-mile basis regionals represent only about 10.5-11.5% of ASMs for DL, AA and UA.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2630
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sun Oct 30, 2016 1:20 am

Cubsrule wrote:
I'm just a dumb lawyer, but isn't 79.8 percent greater than 79.2 percent?


Unlike Rd3he, you are dealing in facts. He concludes United Express is better than Southwest because of Skywest and Express Jet. He is not aware of these facts:
1. There are nine United Express carriers, not two. The combined performance of all nine is worse than the combined performance of the best two.
2. Skywest flies not just as United Express but as four different regional airlines. Including their performance operating flights for Delta Connection and American Eagle as it they are United Express flights is invalid.

Like I wrote earlier, Rd3he does not deal in facts or reality.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3634
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sun Oct 30, 2016 1:43 am

Cubsrule wrote:

I'm just a dumb lawyer, but isn't 79.8 percent greater than 79.2 percent?

I didn't say every express carrier was better. However, we can conclude that on average, the 60% of UAX we have data for outperforms the WN average. That is my point. And by IPfreely's language he thinks they are soooo terrible they will drag the brand level starts down below WN. How is that supposed to happen when the echoes numbers are equal to WN? That XE number is so close as to be indistinguishable to a customer, so it still runs counter to his statements.

IPFreely wrote:

Like I wrote earlier, Rd3he does not deal in facts or reality.

You have not presented a single fact so far, only your opinion. I have demonstrated that these carriers are equal to or better than WN by using the data available. You have not made any good faith effort to back up your claims.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sun Oct 30, 2016 2:30 am

Rdh3e wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

I'm just a dumb lawyer, but isn't 79.8 percent greater than 79.2 percent?

I didn't say every express carrier was better. However, we can conclude that on average, the 60% of UAX we have data for outperforms the WN average. That is my point.


Well, there are a couple of problems with that. The first is what IPFreely pointed out already: the systemwide numbers are not necessarily the UA numbers. OO's three largest DL stations are DTW, MSP and ORD. OO's three largest UA stations are DEN, ORD and SFO. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that OO's ontime for UA likely underperforms its systemwide average. Likewise, EV's three largest UA stations IINM are EWR, IAH and ORD. It's not hard to see how that would affect their UA number.

The other problem is block time. Take a look at these markets where both UA and WN have 5 or more daily flights. These are yesterday's scheduled block times:

LAX-DEN

UA: 137-149 minutes, 140 minute median, 142 minute mean
WN: 135-155 minutes, 140 minute median, 139 minute mean

LAX-SFO

UA: 82-93 minutes, 86 minute median, 88 minute mean
WN: 75-85 minutes, 78 minute median, 79 minute mean

SAN-SFO

UA: 89-104 minutes, 93 minute median, 92 minute mean
WN: 85-100 minutes, 90 minute median, 91 minute mean

SAN-DEN

UA: 143-152 minutes, 146 minute median, 147 minute mean
WN: 130-145 minutes, 135 minute median, 136 minute mean

SLC-DEN

UA: 89-100 minutes, 97 minute median, 95 minute mean
WN: 80-90 minutes, 80 minute median, 83 minute mean

SEA-DEN

UA: 159-166 minutes, 163 minute median, 163 minute mean
WN: 155-165 minutes, 160 minute median, 159 minute mean

I'm not really suggesting that UA's longer padding is better or worse. That's a different discussion. But, it does mean that A15 comparisons are not necessarily apples to apples.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3634
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sun Oct 30, 2016 2:41 am

Cubsrule wrote:

I'm not really suggesting that UA's longer padding is better or worse. That's a different discussion. But, it does mean that A15 comparisons are not necessarily apples to apples.


Your point about block times is absolutely correct, unfortunately the way the DOT decided to measure does not account for block variances.

His contention is that UA DL and AA will be brought down below WN by the inclusion of their regionals.

Do you think, given their facts presented, that this is likely?

Do you also think someone who espouses conspiracy theories like this below can possibly be an honest arbiter of fact?

IPFreely wrote:
Because I expect we'll see many of the regionals, especially ones like Endeavor and Compass, flying 0.49% of traffic instead of improving their performance.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Sun Oct 30, 2016 2:48 am

Rdh3e wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

I'm not really suggesting that UA's longer padding is better or worse. That's a different discussion. But, it does mean that A15 comparisons are not necessarily apples to apples.


Your point about block times is absolutely correct, unfortunately the way the DOT decided to measure does not account for block variances.

His contention is that UA DL and AA will be brought down below WN by the inclusion of their regionals.

Do you think, given their facts presented, that this is likely?


The regionals plainly do worse than the legacies as a general matter. EV and OO, who do large portions of DL and UA's regional flying, perform below DL and UA, and MQ is worse than AA.

The harder question is whether the regionals bring the legacies below WN. I don't know that we have enough data on that point.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
User avatar
BobPatterson
Posts: 3416
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:18 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:10 pm

IPFreely wrote:
WN regularly outperforms the cumulative results of all regional carriers.


This would be extremely interesting, if true.

Please supply data for each regional for at least one recent month (within the last year) and reveal the source of your data so that we may judge the accuracy of your statements.

Thanks.
Facts are fragile things. Treat them with care. Sources are important. Alternative facts do not exist.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:11 pm

BobPatterson wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
WN regularly outperforms the cumulative results of all regional carriers.


This would be extremely interesting, if true.

Please supply data for each regional for at least one recent month (within the last year) and reveal the source of your data so that we may judge the accuracy of your statements.

Thanks.


In Q415, WN ran 82.3 percent ontime, MQ (the smallest of the then reporting regionals) ran 83.5, EV ran 80.7 and OO ran 80.0. I'd say WN was probably ahead then.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
phllax
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:07 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

The other problem is block time. Take a look at these markets where both UA and WN have 5 or more daily flights. These are yesterday's scheduled block times:

LAX-DEN

UA: 137-149 minutes, 140 minute median, 142 minute mean
WN: 135-155 minutes, 140 minute median, 139 minute mean

LAX-SFO

UA: 82-93 minutes, 86 minute median, 88 minute mean
WN: 75-85 minutes, 78 minute median, 79 minute mean

I'm not really suggesting that UA's longer padding is better or worse. That's a different discussion. But, it does mean that A15 comparisons are not necessarily apples to apples.


You've got to remember that WN's terminal at LAX sits at the departure end of the North runway complex, so they're going to have shorter taxi times than UA planes on the same routes as their taxi times to either 25R or 24L will be substantially longer.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:08 pm

phllax wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:


You've got to remember that WN's terminal at LAX sits at the departure end of the North runway complex, so they're going to have shorter taxi times than UA planes on the same routes as their taxi times to either 25R or 24L will be substantially longer.


Yes, but with the construction on 25R WN seems to be using 25R a lot more lately . . . I don't think I had ever departed on 25R on WN prior to that project.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
TW787
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:57 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
The other problem is block time. Take a look at these markets where both UA and WN have 5 or more daily flights. These are yesterday's scheduled block times:

LAX-DEN

UA: 137-149 minutes, 140 minute median, 142 minute mean
WN: 135-155 minutes, 140 minute median, 139 minute mean

LAX-SFO

UA: 82-93 minutes, 86 minute median, 88 minute mean
WN: 75-85 minutes, 78 minute median, 79 minute mean

SAN-SFO

UA: 89-104 minutes, 93 minute median, 92 minute mean
WN: 85-100 minutes, 90 minute median, 91 minute mean

SAN-DEN

UA: 143-152 minutes, 146 minute median, 147 minute mean
WN: 130-145 minutes, 135 minute median, 136 minute mean

SLC-DEN

UA: 89-100 minutes, 97 minute median, 95 minute mean
WN: 80-90 minutes, 80 minute median, 83 minute mean

SEA-DEN

UA: 159-166 minutes, 163 minute median, 163 minute mean
WN: 155-165 minutes, 160 minute median, 159 minute mean

I'm not really suggesting that UA's longer padding is better or worse. That's a different discussion. But, it does mean that A15 comparisons are not necessarily apples to apples.


Can you help me understand your point? I'm not following. The way I think about it is A15 is apples to apples because it is referring to performance vs. scheduled block time. WN controls their own block time, don't they? I don't think the issue is who pads block more but it is who better executes the schedule they publish, from a DOT stats perspective. If a carrier consistently can't execute against the block time they publish, then they have the ability to change the block. Am I missing something?
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:21 pm

TW787 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
The other problem is block time. . . . I'm not really suggesting that UA's longer padding is better or worse. That's a different discussion. But, it does mean that A15 comparisons are not necessarily apples to apples.


Can you help me understand your point? I'm not following. The way I think about it is A15 is apples to apples because it is referring to performance vs. scheduled block time. WN controls their own block time, don't they? I don't think the issue is who pads block more but it is who better executes the schedule they publish, from a DOT stats perspective. If a carrier consistently can't execute against the block time they publish, then they have the ability to change the block. Am I missing something?


The point is that A15 may not be the most important statistic to all passengers; sometimes it is more important who actually shows up first. Let's say UA and WN leave at the same time and UA has a 20 minute longer block time. If WN arrives 20 minutes "late" and UA arrives 10 minutes "late," WN has still arrived 10 minutes sooner. But UA has met A15 while WN has not. It's not clear to me that every passenger prefers the UA "pad more and arrive closer to the scheduled time" approach. Some might, but why would we assume that all do? Is it better to get there sooner or to get there closer to what's scheduled?

My experience on all carriers is that when circumstances make the flight later or the turn time tighter, everyone works a little harder to keep things moving, so scheduling short flights and tight turns can have positive effects on employee work ethic. Culturally, I think that's good, but it has an effect on A15.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: Southwest Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2016 Profit

Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:17 pm

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/2016/11/02/all-grown-up-and-ready-to-go-global-rising-costs-forcing-southwest-to-aim-international-markets/

Editorial from Forbes covering many of the topics previously discussed in this thread - Southwest's rising costs, Southwest's imperative for new means of organic growth, Southwest's challenges in adapting its business model for international markets, etc.

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